September 6, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A street in Conakry, Guinea. Guinea’s military has removed President Alpha Condé, controversially re-elected last October, from office. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Soman (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Upcoming Africa Elections
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021
Ethiopia held general elections on June 21, 2021, after several postponements. These elections took place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, previously a reformer (he even won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019) but most recently an authoritarian, won in a landslide. Polling couldn’t happen in several areas due to the ongoing conflict, so make-up votes are due to take place this fall. Nonetheless, Abiy has enough seats to form a new governent regardless of the results of the September elections.
Eliza Mackintosh, CNN (September 8, 2021): From Nobel laureate to global pariah: How the world got Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopia so wrong
Reuters (September 7, 2021): U.N. footage from northern Ethiopia shows humanitarian crisis
Coletta Wanjohi, SABC News (September 1, 2021): Ethiopia to form new government in October
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, an indirect presidential election is planned for October 10, delayed from February 8, 2021. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Bloomberg News (September 6, 2021): Spy’s Death Exposes New Faultline in Somalia Before Elections
Reuters (September 6, 2021): Somali PM suspends intelligence chief amid political rift
Garowe Online (September 5, 2021): Somalia’s Lower House polls pushed to October
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021, although some have called for delays due to COVID-19. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More
S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (September 6, 2021): South Africa Extends Cut-Off to Register Election Candidates
BBC (September 6, 2021): South Africa’s ex-president Zuma granted medical parole
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
PM News Nigeria (September 4, 2021): Kaduna deploys electronic voting machines for council polls, first in Nigeria
Nimi Princewill and Sarah Dean, CNN (September 2, 2021): Schools in Nigerian state shut after mass kidnapping of students by gunmen
Chinedu Asadu, AP (September 2, 2021): EXPLAINER: Who are the gunmen abducting Nigerian students?
Ruth Olurounbi, The Africa Report (September 2, 2021): Rivalries within Nigeria’s ruling APC party raise spectre of electoral meltdown
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Gambia is due to hold its first presidential election since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box. In a surprising election result, opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy.
Although Barrow had initially pledged to serve only one term, he plans to run for re-election, which has sparked controversy and protests. More
Africanews (September 7, 2021): The Gambia: Critics warn of possible unrest if Jammeh’s party joins gov’t
Kemo Cham, Daily Nation Kenya (September 7, 2021): Gambia: Anger as Adama Barrow strikes deal with Yahya Jammeh’s party
AFP (September 6, 2021): Gambia ruling party merges with ex-dictator’s ahead of poll
Modou Joof, Bloomberg (September 5, 2021): Gambian President and Ex-Dictator Form Coalition Ahead of Polls
Jane Nyingi, DW (September 4, 2021): Why is Gambia’s President Adama Barrow scared of his military?
Rwanda Local Elections: 2021 (due – date not set)
Rwanda is due to hold local elections in 2021. Since the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has been stable but authoritarian. Opposition figures are frequently imprisoned and sometimes killed or disappeared.
Reuters (September 1, 2021): Rwandan president removes justice minister amid ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero trial
Alexander Dukalskis, The Conversation (August 31, 2021): How authoritarian rulers manage their international image
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2022
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 31, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022. More
Africanews (September 3, 2021): Senegal: Opposition coalition led by Ousmane Sonko launched ahead of local polls
Marième Soumaré, Jeune Afrique (September 2, 2021 – in French): Is the opposition coalition dead on arrival?
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Reuters (September 7, 2021): Mali’s Progress Toward Elections Insufficient, Says W. African Bloc
Amaury Hauchard, AFP (September 7, 2021): Impunity rules as juntas take over in Mali, Chad, Guinea
Africanews (September 5, 2021): Goodluck Jonathan back in Bamako as fears grow for Mali transition
AFP (September 3, 2021): Mali Police March on Prison, Free Commander Held in Protest Deaths Inquiry
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Jeff Otieno, The Africa Report (September 6, 2021): Kenya: Has Raila Odinga used up all his chances to become president?
AFP (September 3, 2021): Kenya to Appeal to Supreme Court Over Constitutional Reforms
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report (August 31, 2021): Kenya: Raila Odinga’s options to beat Ruto narrow after BBI defeat
Kasera Nick Oyoo, The Citizen Tanzania (August 31, 2021): When a president and his deputy are on opposite sides of the fence
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
LUSA (August 31, 2021): Angola: Police stop demonstration for ‘fair, transparent’ electoral law
Past Africa Elections
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)
São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) held a presidential runoff on September 5, following a brief delay.
The previous president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, did not seek a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.
In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI defeated former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD.
Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy. In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.
LUSA (September 8, 2021): Sao Tome: African Union observers hail ‘peaceful, calm’ presidential elections
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African (September 7, 2021): Opposition’s Carlos Vila Nova becomes Sao Tome’s new President
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Robert Macdonald, African Arguments (September 7, 2021): How election observers facilitated Zambia’s smooth change of power
Farai Mutsaka, AP (September 3, 2021): Zambia’s parliament elects first female speaker amid changes
Neo Simutanyi, African Arguemnts (September 2, 2021): Zambia: The three key challenges facing the hopeful new president
Nic Cheeseman, The Africa Report (September 2, 2021): Zambia: Why five is the magic number when it comes to opposition election victories
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Somaliland held its long-overdue parliamentary and local elections on May 31, 2021. The two main opposition parties, Waddani and UCID, together won more seats in parliament than the governing Kulmiye party. Waddani and UCID will team up to choose a parliament speaker and on local councils (where they also won). Somaliland is a presidential system, so there’s no PM. President Muse Bihi Abdi from Kulmiye remains head of state. But it is significant for democracy that the opposition won the “midterms.”
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections. More
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, The Diplomat (September 2, 2021): The Somaliland Connection: Taiwan’s Return to Africa?
Uganda General Elections: January 14, 2021
Uganda held presidential and legislative elections on January 14, 2021. President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986, but this time faced possibly his biggest challenge yet in the form of 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine. Following the elections, the government launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition. More
Max Bearak, Washington Post (September 6, 2021): A fiery Ugandan activist soothes her wounds and contemplates her future
Tanzania General Elections: October 25, 2020
Tanzania held presidential and legislative elections on October 25, 2020 in the context of a crackdown on the opposition and growing authoritarianism. President John Magufuli, whose Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has been in power since 1961, won a second term, but the opposition said the elections were neither free nor fair. Opposition figures have been arrested, assaulted, and murdered.
However, in March 2021, Magufuli died of COVID-19, and then-vice president Samia Suluhu Hassan became the country’s first female president. Some have hoped that she would enact reforms geared toward restoring democracy. More
Charles Kombe, Voice of America (September 5, 2021): Tanzania Opposition Condemns Arrest of Chadema Party Members
Reuters (September 5, 2021): Tanzania suspends second newspaper in less than a month
Guinea Presidential Election: October 18, 2020
Amid violence, Guinea held a presidential election on October 18, 2020. Incumbent Alpha Condé ran for a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo is challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election.
In September 2021, the military removed Condé and seized power. More
Editorial Board, Financial Times (September 7, 2021): Guinea’s coup stems from crisis of legitimacy: World must do a better job at policing the deals that underpin extractive industries in some of the poorest nations
David Lewis, Edward McAllister and Saliou Samb, Reuters (September 6, 2021): ‘Unattainable power’: the frustrations that drove Guinea’s coup leader
AFP (September 6, 2021): Guinea: Latest in a line of African coups
Al Jazeera (September 6, 2021): Who is Alpha Conde, Guinea’s toppled president? Critics argue that the 83-year-old leader worked for decades to restore democracy, but once in power, he undermined it
Abdourahmane Diallo, Ruth Maclean and Mady Camara, New York Times (September 5, 2021): Special Forces Colonel Says He Has ‘Seized’ Guinea’s President
Boubacar Diallo and Krista Larson, AP (September 5, 2021): Soldiers detain Guinea’s president, dissolve government
Burundi General Elections: May 20, 2020
Burundi held presidential, legislative, and communal elections on May 20, 2020. They were denounced as neither free nor fair and characterized by intimidation (and sometimes murder) of the opposition, political violence, and a lack of media freedom. However, there have recently been signs that could indicate that the country is beginning to open up a bit more political space.
Africanews (September 2, 2021): Burundi: Rights group condemns president’s attacks on journalist
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (Proposed – twice delayed, from August 8 and August 29)
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021 (Following delays)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Tentative)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: September 10, 2021
Last Updated: September 28, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 10, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Sara Cheng, Reuters (September 10, 2021): Politicians swear loyalty to Hong Kong, but face govt patriotic test
BBC (September 10, 2021): Hong Kong Tiananmen vigil organisers charged under national security law
Iain Marlow and Kari Soo Lindberg, Bloomberg (September 7, 2021): China Moves to Complete Its Purge of Hong Kong’s Election System: An oath-taking ceremony this week represents the culmination of a campaign by Beijing to roll back past defeats at polls.
Angeli Datt and Isabel Linzer, The Diplomat (September 7, 2021): Ahead of Hong Kong Elections, Companies Must Act to Protect Digital Rights: The private sector may be forced to choose between enabling and resisting state repression.
Candice Chau, Hong Kong Free Press (September 6, 2021): Hong Kong Democratic Party may breach security law if it tells members not to run in election, warns pro-Beijing figure
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the two biggest parties, PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress Party.
PTI (September 10, 2021): How Modi used Twitter to win 2019 elections: Nationalism, culture and political alliances were his buzzwords
Soutik Biswas and Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa, BBC (September 7, 2021): What election losers tell us about Indian democracy
Kavita Chowdhury, The Diplomat (September 6, 2021): Is India’s Congress Party in Self-Destruct Mode? India’s Grand Old Party is in need of bold and cohesive leadership.
Priyanka Singh, ISDA (September 6, 2021): Elections in the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir
AFP (September 5, 2021): India charges late Kashmir leader’s family under anti-terror law
Aijaz Hussain, AP (September 3, 2021): Kashmir lockdown continues after anti-India leader’s death
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
Philippines holds a presidential election on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
CNN Philippines (September 9, 2021): Sara Duterte says she won’t run for president after her father officially accepts VP nomination
Kiko Rosario and David Rising, AP (September 8, 2021): Duterte’s party picks him as VP candidate in Philippines
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. In Australia’s last federal elections in May 2019, the conservative Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, won a surprise victory, even though polls had predicted that Labor would oust them. The Liberals are currently in their third term in government. Morrison has been criticized for his “COVID zero” strategy that has been used to justify increasingly authoritarian policies.
Meanwhile, several states hold various types of elections in 2021.
Edward Cliff and Brian Fernandes, New York Times (September 8, 2021): Covid Zero Is No Longer Working for Australia
Paul Karp, The Guardian (September 7, 2021): Morrison government prepares legislation with an eye to a 2022 federal election
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Radio Free Asia (September 9, 2021): Cambodian Court Sentences Seven Opposition Activists to Prison in Absentia For ‘Incitement’
Nepal General Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Michael Hutt, East Asia Forum (September 11, 2021): Fifth time lucky? Deuba’s last chance for a legacy in Nepal
Pratik Ghimire, Annapurna Express (September 9, 2021): What fuels political instability in Nepal?
Tika R Pradhan, Kathmandu Post (September 5, 2021): Nepal government’s attempts to curb protests, debates draw public ire
Thailand, Bangkok Local Elections and Referendum: TBD
Thai officials have said they will schedule elections soon for various types of local elections (such as Bangkok city council) and potentially a constitutional referendum. These follow provincial elections that took place in December 2020 and municipal elections in March 2021.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul, AP (September 10, 2021): Thai Parliament approves election system charter change
Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post (September 7, 2021): Jurin says Democrats ready for gubernatorial election
Masayuki Yuda, Nikkei Asia (September 4, 2021): Thai PM survives 3rd no-confidence vote over COVID response
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
Tommy Walker, Voice of America (September 8, 2021): Myanmar’s Shadow Government Announces ‘Defensive War’
Emily Fishbein and Athens Zaw Zaw, Rolling Stone (September 6, 2021): ‘Rock and Roll Is at Its Most Beautiful Stage When It’s Free’: In Myanmar, a military coup ripped away rock musicians’ glimpse of creative freedom. Faced with a return to repression and censorship, they are finding ways to fight back
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Japan, Mayoral Election in Yokohama: August 22, 2021
Australia, Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: September 9, 2021
Last Updated: September 28, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 9, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia holds parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates. More
Gijs Willem Freriks, New Eastern Europe (September 9, 2021): Russian Duma elections. How promising is the smart voting strategy this time?
RFE/RL (September 7, 2021): In Another Blow, Navalny’s ‘Smart Voting’ Project In Russia Is Being Cloned
Oliver Carroll, The Independent (September 7, 2021): Russian election: Isolated and demoralised, Team Navalny has a last roll of the dice
David J. Kramer, Politico (September 4, 2021): Opinion | What I Wish the U.S. Had Done About Putin Years Ago — And What Biden Should Do Now
Al Jazeera (September 2, 2021): Russia warns Google, Apple over Kremlin critic Navalny’s app
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Georgia has scheduled local elections for October 2, 2021, and they are particularly important because – as a result of a deal to resolve the political crisis following last year’s parliamentary elections – they could spark new parliamentary elections if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins less than 43 percent of the proportional vote. However, the ruling Georgian Dream scrapped the agreement in July, raising concerns about Georgia’s political stability. Georgian Dream has re-iterated that it will not hold snap elections in 2022 even if it loses the local elections. The political climate is tense, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout.
Most recently, an uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
Agenda.ge (September 9, 2021): NDI calls Georgia’s municipal elections ‘an opportunity,’ offers recommendations
Thomas de Waal, Carnegie Europe (September 9, 2021): Georgian Democracy Is Dying By a Thousand Cuts
Vlad Olteanu, Brussels Times (September 7, 2021): A tale of two cities: Georgia’s way to the EU or far from it
JAMnews (September 7, 2021): Mikheil Saakashvili: I am not afraid of arrest, I will return to Georgia for the upcoming elections
Dustin Gilbreath and The Caucasus Datablog, OC Media (September 7, 2021): Datablog | With local elections coming, what matters to the public?
Shota Kincha, OC Media (September 2, 2021): Who’s who in the Tbilisi Mayoral election
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
Uzbekistan is holding a presidential election on October 24, 2021. Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate freely in the country. Although some had hoped that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev would face a serious challenger this year, that looks increasingly unlikely as would-be challengers are either being denied ballot access or dropping out. More
RFE/RL (September 2, 2021): Not To Be Left Out, Uzbek Lawmakers Pitch ‘Head Of Nation’ Title For Mirziyoev
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
Kyrgyzstan will hold parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
RFE/RL (September 8, 2021): Jailed Kyrgyz Opposition Party Leader Faces Additional Charges He Calls Fake
Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (September 2, 2021): Kyrgyzstan Wiretapped Activists, Lawyers, MPs: The Interior Ministry justified the wiretaps as part of investigations into the October 2020 unrest.
Past Eurasia Elections
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. More
Eliza Mackintosh and Katharina Krebs, CNN (September 6, 2021): Belarus opposition figure and protest leader sentenced to 11 years in jail
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Russia Parliamentary Elections: September 17-19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: September 8, 2021
Last Updated: September 28, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 8, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. She faces a serious challenge from the left-leaning opposition and the Greens. More
Gwladys Fouche and Terje Solsvik, Reuters (September 9, 2021): Climate, wealth gap in focus as Norway go to polls
Reuters (September 8, 2021): Factbox-Norway’s three candidates for prime minister
Richard Milne, Financial Times (September 7, 2021): Norway’s oil rises to top of election agenda as climate fears grow: Greens want immediate halt to exploration while bigger parties stand behind industry
AFP (September 2, 2021): Norway football coach calls for government change over virus rules
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Iceland holds elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government is a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party. More
Andie Sophia Fontaine, Reykjavik Grapevine (September 6, 2021): Crowded House: Parliamentary Elections In The Pandemic
Jelena Ćirić, Iceland Review (September 1, 2021): First Election Debate Covered Economy, Climate, and Healthcare
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens begun to rival SPD as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world.
However, in recent weeks, SPD has bounced back in the polls, making the election anyone’s game and increasing the likelihood that Germany ends up with three-party governing coalition for the first time in decades. More
BBC (September 8, 2021): German election: Merkel attacks left as polls point to defeat
Geir Moulson, AP (September 6, 2021): Germany protests to Russia over pre-election cyberattacks
Katja Hoyer, The Spectator (September 4, 2021): Could a left-wing coalition end up running Germany? Some of Die Linke’s mission statements read like something from a bygone era
Mark Scott, Politico (September 3, 2021): Russia sows distrust on social media ahead of German election: RT Deutsch, the Kremlin-backed media outlet, has become a major player on social media just weeks before the polls open.
Silvia Amaro, CBNC (September 3, 2021): ‘It is not a normal election’: The outcome of Germany’s historic vote remains uncertain
The Economist (September 2, 2021): Germany’s election, seen through the bottom of a glass: Conservative Bavarians and left-wing Berliners agree on beer but little else
Katrin Bennhold, New York Times (September 1, 2021): It’s Election Season in Germany. No Charisma, Please!
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More
David Hutt, Euronews (September 8, 2021): Czech election: Opinion polls, key issues and all you need to know
Ondřej Plevák, Euractiv (September 3, 2021): Babis toughens anti-EU rhetoric ahead of parliamentary elections
Jan Lopatka, Reuters (September 3, 2021): Czech opposition seeks closer ties with liberal allies, revival of euro adoption
Italy, Mayoral Elections in Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and other cities and regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Italy is due to hold regional elections in Calabria in the south, as well as mayoral elections in several major cities, on October 10 and 11. The next general elections aren’t due until June 2023, but as is ever the case with Italy, snap elections are possible. However, in January 2021, the government collapsed after former prime minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his support. Former European Central Bank chief Mario “Super Mario” Draghi formed a government in February 2021.
Daniele Lettig, Euractiv (September 9, 2021): Far-right parties lead Italian polls
Hannah Roberts, Politico (September 7, 2021): Daughter of Mafia victim vows to liberate Naples from the mob in mayoral race
Silvia Amaro, CNBC (September 3, 2021): Italy is enjoying an unusual period of political stability. But a crisis could be around the corner
Nick Squires, The Telegraph (September 2, 2021): Boar war erupts in Italy as politicians trade blame over invasion of Rome
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021 (following an indirect presidential election that began on August 30)
Estonia – a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy – holds local elections on October 16, following an indirect presidential election on August 30.
In Estonia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial and representative role, with no executive power. The Riigikogu (parliament) elects the president. Incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid sought re-election. However, the government nominated Alar Karis, director of the Estonian National Museum, and Karis ended up winning.
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. More
ERR News (September 3, 2021): Over 130 electoral groups rival main parties ahead of October’s local polls
bne IntelliNews (September 1, 2021): Estonian president-elect says will try to talk to all of country’s political forces
Alex Greenberger, Robb Report (September 1, 2021): The Art of Politics? Estonia Just Elected a Museum Director as President
Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021 and Snap Parliamentary Elections (Likely – TBD)
Bulgaria is holding a presidential election on September 14, and will probably hold a third set of parliamentary elections since it looks like no government can be formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4).
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused. Therefore, there is a strong chance of a third election, possibly around the time of the presidential election. More
RFE/RL (September 8, 2021): Bulgaria Bound For Fresh Elections After Socialists Also Fail To Form Government
Euractiv (September 6, 2021): Bulgarians head to the polls putting hope in new political force
EU Observer (September 3, 2021): Bulgaria to have third national elections this year
AP (September 2, 2021): Bulgaria to hold presidential elections on Nov. 14
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Reuters (September 8, 2021): French far-right leader Le Pen plans to nationalise motorways if elected president
Clea Caulcutt, Politico (September 7, 2021): Who’s who in the race to find a conservative candidate to run for French president
Roger Cohen, New York Times (September 2, 2021): The French Left Is in Disarray, but Here Comes Anne Hidalgo: The charismatic and divisive socialist mayor of Paris is eyeing an office that has been occupied by eight male presidents over six decades.
Tom Wheeldon, France24 (September 1, 2021): Macron plans to tackle Marseille’s drug crime, with eye on re-election
AFP (September 1, 2021): French far-right party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen faces new hate trial
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: By April 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Sasa Dragojlo, Balkan Insight (September 8, 2021): Serbian Opposition Leader Rejects EU-Proposed Electoral Reforms
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
Transitions Online (September 8, 2021): Hungarian Opposition Seeks United Front
Euronews (September 7, 2021): Hungary’s opposition unites in bid to oust Viktor Orban from power
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg (September 6, 2021): Orban Seeks to Quell Talk of Hungary’s EU Exit as Elections Loom
Past Europe Elections
Albania Parliamentary Elections: April 25, 2021
Albania held parliamentary elections on April 25, 2021 in a tense political climate with several violent incidents. Since communism collapsed in 1990, Albania has held competitive elections and several transitions of power between political parties. The elections were close, and the incumbent Socialist Party won a third term in office, defeating the main opposition center-right Democratic Party. More
Gjergj Erebara, Balkan Insight (September 2, 2021): Rama Appoints Albania’s First Mainly Female Cabinet
AP (September 2, 2021): Albanian PM names new proposed cabinet, dominated by women
Romania Parliamentary Elections: December 6, 2020
Romania held parliamentary elections on December 6. Amid low turnout due partly to COVID-19, the scandal-plagued leftist Social Democrats (PSD) unexpectedly came in first place. However, a coalition of parties formed a center-right government, headed by Florin Cîțu from the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL). More
Euronews (September 10, 2021): Romania’s government faces confidence vote after ministers resign from coalition
Matei Rosca, Politico (September 7, 2021): Reformist bloc resigns from Romanian government as political crisis continues
Reuters (September 1, 2021): Romanian PM sacks justice minister over reform response
Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: August 30, 2020
Montenegro held parliamentary elections on August 30, 2020, the fifth since independence in 2006. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro will be the next prime minister. The political base of the new coalition is generally pro-Moscow.
Aleksandar Ivković, European Western Balkans (September 7, 2021): Enthronement crisis: Coordination between Đukanović and Vučić or deterioration of their relations?
Marton Dunal, Financial Times (September 5, 2021): Protesters angry at new Montenegro head cleric clash with police: Installation of orthodox metropolitan in Balkan country marred by violence over perceived links to Serbia
Stevo Vasiljevic, Reuters (September 5, 2021): Dozens injured in anti-Serbian protests in Montenegro
AFP (September 5, 2021): Protests as Montenegro’s new Orthodox head inaugurated
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: September 7, 2021
Last Updated: January 18, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 7, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Morocco has set legislative, provincial, and local elections for September 8, 2021. The elections are taking place in the context of discontentment and disillusionment. Although the current monarch, King Mohammed VI, has instituted a number of political reforms, he still plays a major role in governing, both through formal structures and informally. Following the 2011 constitutional reforms, the king must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats in parliament, but the king can still circumvent elected officials in various ways (including dissolving parliament or simply issuing decrees).
In the last elections, in 2016, the moderate Islamic democratic Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won the most seats. However, the king sought to sideline PJD as much as possible with ministerial appointments. More
Tarik El Barakah, AP (September 7, 2021): Parties campaign ahead of Morocco’s pivotal elections
AFP (September 6, 2021): Islamists’ grip on power at stake in lacklustre Morocco election
Ahmed Eljechtimi and Angus Mcdowall, Reuters (September 4, 2021): Looming Moroccan election reveals parliament’s dimming sway
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2, 2021
Qatar has announced that it will hold its first-ever parliamentary elections (Shura Council elections) on October 2, 2021. Qatar is an absolute monarchy in which the emir holds all political power. The only elections that the country has ever held have been for the Central Municipal Council, an advisory body with no real power. Political parties are not allowed. Moreover, the vast majority of people who live in Qatar are not citizens, and have no political rights. The Shura Council has existed since 1972, but has few real powers.
Some have criticized these elections as a cosmetic reform undertaken because of increased pressure because Qatar will be hosting the football World Cup in 2022. More
Ben Hubbard, New York Times (September 2, 2021): From Afghanistan to the World Cup, Tiny, Wealthy Qatar Steps Up
Benjamin Weinthal and Jonathan Spyer, Jerusalem Post (August 31, 2021): Qatar under fire for election crackdown on dissident tribe
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021 (tentative) and Provincial Elections (due)
Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability.
The current political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls. The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but has since reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. More
Samya Kullab, AP (September 7, 2021): UN envoy to Iraq says effort underway to prevent voter fraud
AFP (September 7, 2021): EU, UN hope for ‘credible’ Iraq polls
Ghassan Adnan, Wall Street Journal (September 5, 2021): Islamic State Kills at Least 12 Police in Iraq Amid Resurgence Fears: Attack on a police outpost in Kirkuk province was followed by two other assaults
Mustafa Saadoun, Al-Monitor (September 1, 2021): International observers prepare for Iraq’s elections
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021 (tentative)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed indefinitely due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. More
Al Jazeera (September 7, 2021): Libya releases political prisoners as part of reconciliation
AFP (September 6, 2021): Libyan dictator’s son Saadi Qaddafi freed from jail
Ahmed Elumami, Reuters (September 3, 2021): Worst Tripoli fighting in a year shows limits of Libya peace push
Al-Monitor (September 1, 2021): Libya’s FM signals elections could be delayed: Foreign Minister Najla al-Mangoush said the Dec. 24 elections could be postponed if lawmakers fail to agree on the electoral law.
AP (August 31, 2021): Libya’s Neighbors Meet, Urge Foreign Fighters to Leave
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
Kareem Chehayeb and Tala Majzoub, Arab Reform Initiative (September 7, 2021): Lebanon’s Student Movement: A New Political Player?
Najia Houssari, Arab News (September 7, 2021`): Lebanon faces ‘more chaos’ with no government
Lina Mounzer, New York Times (September 3, 2021): Lebanon as We Once Knew It Is Gone
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed indefinitely
The Palestinian Authority has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. More
Adam Rasgon, New York Times (September 6, 2021): Palestinian Authority Indicts 14 Security Force Members in Activist’s Death
Al-Monitor (September 2, 2021): Palestinian president in Cairo for talks with Egyptian, Jordanian leaders
Khaled Abu Toameh, Jerusalem Post (August 31, 2021): Fatah-Hamas rift deepens as Abbas moves closer to US, Israel
Past Middle East Elections
Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
In July 2021, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup.
Mohamed Ali Ltifi (September 3, 2021): Absence of government, parliament negatively affects Tunisia’s economy
Radwan S. Masmoudi, Foreign Policy (September 2, 2021): Keep Tunisia’s Military Out of Politics: President Kais Saied has broken a 65-year taboo.
Reuters (September 2, 2021): G7 nations urge return to constitutional order in Tunisia
Nate Grubman, Washington Post (September 1, 2021): Do Tunisians still want democracy? They support their president’s emergency measures, which seem to undermine that goal
Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.
Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.
Emma Graham-Harrison and Akhtar Mohammad Makoii, The Guardian (September 7, 2021): Taliban name all-male Afghan cabinet including minister wanted by FBI: Country will once again be officially known as an Islamic emirate, as at least two people killed in protests
Fiona MacDonald and Simone Foxman, Bloomberg (September 7, 2021): Qatar May Struggle to Deliver the Revamped Taliban it Hyped
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Morocco Legislative, Provincial, and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2, 2021
Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: Fall 2021 (due)
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Algeria Early Local Elections: November 27, 2021
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Algeria Local Elections: November 2022 (due – earlier elections possible)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: September 6, 2021
Last Updated: September 23, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 6, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021
Ethiopia held general elections on June 21, 2021, after several postponements. These elections took place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, previously a reformer (he even won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019) but most recently an authoritarian, won in a landslide. Polling couldn’t happen in several areas due to the ongoing conflict, so make-up votes are due to take place this fall. Nonetheless, Abiy has enough seats to form a new governent regardless of the results of the September elections.
Eliza Mackintosh, CNN (September 8, 2021): From Nobel laureate to global pariah: How the world got Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopia so wrong
Reuters (September 7, 2021): U.N. footage from northern Ethiopia shows humanitarian crisis
Coletta Wanjohi, SABC News (September 1, 2021): Ethiopia to form new government in October
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, an indirect presidential election is planned for October 10, delayed from February 8, 2021. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Bloomberg News (September 6, 2021): Spy’s Death Exposes New Faultline in Somalia Before Elections
Reuters (September 6, 2021): Somali PM suspends intelligence chief amid political rift
Garowe Online (September 5, 2021): Somalia’s Lower House polls pushed to October
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021, although some have called for delays due to COVID-19. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More
S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (September 6, 2021): South Africa Extends Cut-Off to Register Election Candidates
BBC (September 6, 2021): South Africa’s ex-president Zuma granted medical parole
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
PM News Nigeria (September 4, 2021): Kaduna deploys electronic voting machines for council polls, first in Nigeria
Nimi Princewill and Sarah Dean, CNN (September 2, 2021): Schools in Nigerian state shut after mass kidnapping of students by gunmen
Chinedu Asadu, AP (September 2, 2021): EXPLAINER: Who are the gunmen abducting Nigerian students?
Ruth Olurounbi, The Africa Report (September 2, 2021): Rivalries within Nigeria’s ruling APC party raise spectre of electoral meltdown
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Gambia is due to hold its first presidential election since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box. In a surprising election result, opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy.
Although Barrow had initially pledged to serve only one term, he plans to run for re-election, which has sparked controversy and protests. More
Africanews (September 7, 2021): The Gambia: Critics warn of possible unrest if Jammeh’s party joins gov’t
Kemo Cham, Daily Nation Kenya (September 7, 2021): Gambia: Anger as Adama Barrow strikes deal with Yahya Jammeh’s party
AFP (September 6, 2021): Gambia ruling party merges with ex-dictator’s ahead of poll
Modou Joof, Bloomberg (September 5, 2021): Gambian President and Ex-Dictator Form Coalition Ahead of Polls
Jane Nyingi, DW (September 4, 2021): Why is Gambia’s President Adama Barrow scared of his military?
Rwanda Local Elections: 2021 (due – date not set)
Rwanda is due to hold local elections in 2021. Since the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has been stable but authoritarian. Opposition figures are frequently imprisoned and sometimes killed or disappeared.
Reuters (September 1, 2021): Rwandan president removes justice minister amid ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero trial
Alexander Dukalskis, The Conversation (August 31, 2021): How authoritarian rulers manage their international image
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2022
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 31, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022. More
Africanews (September 3, 2021): Senegal: Opposition coalition led by Ousmane Sonko launched ahead of local polls
Marième Soumaré, Jeune Afrique (September 2, 2021 – in French): Is the opposition coalition dead on arrival?
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Reuters (September 7, 2021): Mali’s Progress Toward Elections Insufficient, Says W. African Bloc
Amaury Hauchard, AFP (September 7, 2021): Impunity rules as juntas take over in Mali, Chad, Guinea
Africanews (September 5, 2021): Goodluck Jonathan back in Bamako as fears grow for Mali transition
AFP (September 3, 2021): Mali Police March on Prison, Free Commander Held in Protest Deaths Inquiry
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Jeff Otieno, The Africa Report (September 6, 2021): Kenya: Has Raila Odinga used up all his chances to become president?
AFP (September 3, 2021): Kenya to Appeal to Supreme Court Over Constitutional Reforms
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report (August 31, 2021): Kenya: Raila Odinga’s options to beat Ruto narrow after BBI defeat
Kasera Nick Oyoo, The Citizen Tanzania (August 31, 2021): When a president and his deputy are on opposite sides of the fence
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
LUSA (August 31, 2021): Angola: Police stop demonstration for ‘fair, transparent’ electoral law
Past Africa Elections
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)
São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) held a presidential runoff on September 5, following a brief delay.
The previous president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, did not seek a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.
In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI defeated former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD.
Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy. In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.
LUSA (September 8, 2021): Sao Tome: African Union observers hail ‘peaceful, calm’ presidential elections
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African (September 7, 2021): Opposition’s Carlos Vila Nova becomes Sao Tome’s new President
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Robert Macdonald, African Arguments (September 7, 2021): How election observers facilitated Zambia’s smooth change of power
Farai Mutsaka, AP (September 3, 2021): Zambia’s parliament elects first female speaker amid changes
Neo Simutanyi, African Arguemnts (September 2, 2021): Zambia: The three key challenges facing the hopeful new president
Nic Cheeseman, The Africa Report (September 2, 2021): Zambia: Why five is the magic number when it comes to opposition election victories
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Somaliland held its long-overdue parliamentary and local elections on May 31, 2021. The two main opposition parties, Waddani and UCID, together won more seats in parliament than the governing Kulmiye party. Waddani and UCID will team up to choose a parliament speaker and on local councils (where they also won). Somaliland is a presidential system, so there’s no PM. President Muse Bihi Abdi from Kulmiye remains head of state. But it is significant for democracy that the opposition won the “midterms.”
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections. More
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, The Diplomat (September 2, 2021): The Somaliland Connection: Taiwan’s Return to Africa?
Uganda General Elections: January 14, 2021
Uganda held presidential and legislative elections on January 14, 2021. President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986, but this time faced possibly his biggest challenge yet in the form of 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine. Following the elections, the government launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition. More
Max Bearak, Washington Post (September 6, 2021): A fiery Ugandan activist soothes her wounds and contemplates her future
Tanzania General Elections: October 25, 2020
Tanzania held presidential and legislative elections on October 25, 2020 in the context of a crackdown on the opposition and growing authoritarianism. President John Magufuli, whose Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has been in power since 1961, won a second term, but the opposition said the elections were neither free nor fair. Opposition figures have been arrested, assaulted, and murdered.
However, in March 2021, Magufuli died of COVID-19, and then-vice president Samia Suluhu Hassan became the country’s first female president. Some have hoped that she would enact reforms geared toward restoring democracy. More
Charles Kombe, Voice of America (September 5, 2021): Tanzania Opposition Condemns Arrest of Chadema Party Members
Reuters (September 5, 2021): Tanzania suspends second newspaper in less than a month
Guinea Presidential Election: October 18, 2020
Amid violence, Guinea held a presidential election on October 18, 2020. Incumbent Alpha Condé ran for a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo is challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election.
In September 2021, the military removed Condé and seized power. More
Editorial Board, Financial Times (September 7, 2021): Guinea’s coup stems from crisis of legitimacy: World must do a better job at policing the deals that underpin extractive industries in some of the poorest nations
David Lewis, Edward McAllister and Saliou Samb, Reuters (September 6, 2021): ‘Unattainable power’: the frustrations that drove Guinea’s coup leader
AFP (September 6, 2021): Guinea: Latest in a line of African coups
Al Jazeera (September 6, 2021): Who is Alpha Conde, Guinea’s toppled president? Critics argue that the 83-year-old leader worked for decades to restore democracy, but once in power, he undermined it
Abdourahmane Diallo, Ruth Maclean and Mady Camara, New York Times (September 5, 2021): Special Forces Colonel Says He Has ‘Seized’ Guinea’s President
Boubacar Diallo and Krista Larson, AP (September 5, 2021): Soldiers detain Guinea’s president, dissolve government
Burundi General Elections: May 20, 2020
Burundi held presidential, legislative, and communal elections on May 20, 2020. They were denounced as neither free nor fair and characterized by intimidation (and sometimes murder) of the opposition, political violence, and a lack of media freedom. However, there have recently been signs that could indicate that the country is beginning to open up a bit more political space.
Africanews (September 2, 2021): Burundi: Rights group condemns president’s attacks on journalist
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (Proposed – twice delayed, from August 8 and August 29)
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021 (Following delays)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Tentative)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
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