August 25, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Berlin’s Hackesche Höfe. Germany holds elections on September 26 that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel, and it is anyone’s game. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Martin Abegglen (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 and Local Elections: October 17, 2021
Estonia – a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy – will hold an indirect presidential election starting on August 30 and local elections on October 17, 2021. In Estonia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial and representative role, with no executive power. The Riigikogu (parliament) elects the president.
Incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid is eligible to run for another term, and has been campaigning to be re-elected. However, even though Kaljulaid is popular (and polls suggest she would win a direct election), the government has nominated Alar Karis, director of the Estonian National Museum, because Ratas opposed another term for Kaljulaid.
Candidates register just a few days before the election, and new candidates can enter the race after the first round of voting, creating a high degree of uncertainty. Moreover, if parliament fails to elect a president – which requires a two-thirds majority – the process moves to an electoral college consisting of members of parliament and local government representatives (this happened in 2016).
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. More
Koen Verhelst, Euronews (August 25, 2021): Why is no one stepping forward to be Estonia’s next president?
ERR News (August 25, 2021): Feature: Estonia’s presidential election 2021
BNN (August 23, 2021): Estonian presidential candidate Karis gains backing of both government parties
ERR News (August 22, 2021): Center joins Reform in support for Alar Karis presidential candidacy
Sarah Lavigne, Calvert Journal (August 22, 2021): ‘You Until Death’: how one man’s music free Estonia from Soviet rule
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. She faces a serious challenge from the left-leaning opposition and the Greens. More
Stratfor (August 23, 2021): How Norway’s Election Could Impact Its Economic Future
Reuters (August 23, 2021): Police end Extinction Rebellion occupation of Norway’s oil ministry
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens have taken SPD’s place as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world. However, despite his unpopularity, Armin Laschet remains the favorite to succeed Merkel as chancellor. Nonetheless, German voters have a real choice and Baerbock, who comes from the party’s “realo” (moderate) wing as opposed to the “fundi” (radical) wing – has an actual shot at the top job. More
The Economist (August 28, 2021): A visit to a stronghold of the AfD, Germany’s far-right party
Dhara Ranasinghe and Yoruk Bahceli, Reuters (August 25, 2021): Germany’s Sept election and why it matters to markets
Kate Connolly, The Guardian (August 25, 2021): German Greens under fire over 19th-century folk song in election ad: Greens go for wide appeal with reworked campfire song with no mention of devastating floods
Silvia Amaro, CBNC (August 25, 2021): Germany’s Social Democrats are polling ahead of Merkel’s bloc for the first time in 15 years
Astrid Prange, DW (August 24, 2021): German election: How reliable are opinion polls?
RFE/RL (August 20, 2021): Merkel Makes Farewell Trip To Meet Putin Amid ‘Deep Disagreements’
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021 and Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Austria’s Upper Austria (whose capital is Linz, home of the Linzertorte cake) state holds elections in September. All four parties who have seats in the state legislature – ÖVP, FPÖ, the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the Greens – are part of the state government.
Austria is subsequently due to hold a presidential election by April 2022, but the role is largely ceremonial, with the chancellor instead holding most executive power.
Austria’s federal government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May 2019 following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. Subsequent snap elections gave ÖVP the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Ultimately, ÖVP formed a coalition with the Greens, and Kurz once again became chancellor.
Vienna.at (August 21, 2021 – in German): Upper Austria election: That’s the difference between 2021 and 2015
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More
William Nattrass, Expatz_cz (August 25, 2021): Recording-breaking number of women are running in Czech elections this year
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Bulgaria is due to hold a presidential election in October or November, and will possibly hold a third set of parliamentary elections if no government can be formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4).
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and there’s a strong chance of a third election, possibly around the time of the presidential election that is due this fall. More
RFE/RL (August 26, 2021): Bulgarian President To Ask Third Party To Form Government After Previous Attempts Fail
Denitsa Koseva, bne IntelliNews (August 25, 2021): New political deadlock in Bulgaria as parliament speaker says she won’t accept PM nomination
RFE/RL (August 20, 2021): Bulgaria Moves Closer To Third Election This Year After GERB Party Fails To Form Cabinet
Angel Petrov, Balkan Insight (August 20, 2021): Bulgaria is Struggling to Exit an Era of Political ‘Kings’
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Kosovo is due to hold local elections in 2021. These follow snap parliamentary elections that took place in February 2021. In those elections, Kosovo held on February 14. The left-wing nationalist Vetëvendosje won, potentially jeopardizing any resolution to a long-standing territorial dispute with Serbia. However, the new prime minister, Albin Kurti has also advocated for closer ties with the United States and Europe.
Scott Winter, Columbia Journalism Review (August 23, 2021): “In Kosovo, everybody has their own truth”
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
Dalibor Rohac, The Bulwark (August 24, 2021): The High-Water Mark of the New Nationalism in Central Europe?
Ábrahám Vass, Hungary Today (August 23, 2021): Opposition Primaries Procedure Begins to Find Strongest Candidates to Challenge Fidesz Next Year
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Claire Gallen and Stuart Williams (August 26, 2021): Ex-Brexit negotiator Barnier announces French presidential bid
Cain Burdeau, Courthouse News (August 26, 2021): French presidential campaign revs up after summer hiatus
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2022 (due)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is due to hold general elections in October 2020. The 202 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. More
Sead Turcalo, Balkan Insight (August 26, 2021): Bosnia Must Counter Russia’s Cultivation of Far-Right Extremists
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Sweden’s next elections are not due until September 2022, but in June 2021, the left-leaning coalition led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven fell in a no-confidence vote. Lofven was re-elected PM, but could fall in yet another no-confidence vote if his government cannot pass a budget. In August, Lofven suddenly announced his resignation, effective in November. It is unclear who will succeed him, but a possible candidate is Magdalena Andersson, currently the finance minister. She would be Sweden’s first female prime minister.
Reis Thebault, Washington Post (August 23, 2021): Sweden prime minister’s abrupt resignation upends the country and its politics
James Drew, EU Reporter (August 23, 2021): Swedish PM to step down in November ahead of 2022 elections
Ott Ummelas and Niclas Rolander, Bloomberg (August 22, 2021): Sweden’s Departing Premier Paves a Path for Finance Chief
Past Europe Elections
United Kingdom Local Elections (including Mayor of London and Scottish and Welsh parliaments): May 6, 2021
The United Kingdom (UK) held local elections on May 6, 2021. Voters will elected various local councils, plus the mayor of London, plus Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Overall, the Conservatives made gains on councils, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament.
The Scottish elections were particularly high-stakes because if the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has been demanding another referendum on independence. The SNP won the most seats, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum.
Pan Pylas, AP (August 20, 2021): Scottish Greens agree to back pro-independence government: The power-sharing deal could pave the way to another referendum on Scotland’s independence from the U.K.
Ireland General Elections: February 8, 2020
Ireland held general elections on February 8, 2020, to elect the Dáil Éireann (lower house of parliament) and choose the next government. These elections saw support decline for the two parties that had long been dominant and which had alternated stints in power: Fine Gael (which headed the government prior to 2020) and Fianna Fáil.
The differences between the two go back to the Irish Civil War of 1923. In the present era, their policies aren’t that different – both are generally centrist to center-right, although Fine Gael tends to be more free market on economic issues and liberal on social issues, while Fianna Fáil is more socially conservative and favors more government involvement in the economy.
Sinn Féin came in first in the 2020 elections, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in second and third respectively, and the Greens upper their seat share significantly. It represented a new fragmentation in Irish politics. Ultimately, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael formed a coalition, thus demoting Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar from Taoiseach (prime minister) to Tánaiste (deputy prime minister). The next elections are due by February 2025, although snap elections could happen.
Aidan Scully, Harvard Political Review (August 22, 2021): The Rise of the New Sinn Féin
Regional Analysis
Misha Savic, Bloomberg (August 26, 2021): Why the EU’s Balkan Expansion Faces a Long and Winding Road
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 (by parliament)
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: October/November 2021 (due)
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: August 30, 2021
Last Updated: September 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 30, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)
São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) is due to hold a presidential runoff, following the first round on July 18, 2021. The runoff was supposed to take place on August 8, but faced a delay because the candidate who placed third in the first round – and thus did not make the runoff – contested the results. However, a court ordered the runoff to go forward, but has been delayed to September 5.
The current president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, is not running for a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.
In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI will face off against former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy.
In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.
Oscar Medeiros, Voice of America (August 26, 2021 – in Portuguese): The electoral campaign for the second round of the Presidential in São Tomé and Príncipe begins
Carina Branco, RFI (August 26, 2021 – in Portuguese): São Tomé and Príncipe: Sociologist warns of risk of post-electoral instability
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia plans to hold to hold an indirect presidential election on October 10, delayed from February 8, 2021, following indirect parliamentary elections in December 2020. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Ismail D. Osman, Garowe Online (August 27, 2021): Somalia’s Electoral Crisis [A Chance for True Democracy in Somalia]
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More
Lizeka Tandwa, Mail and Guardian (August 29, 2021): Political parties prepare for battle for the local government elections
S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (August 27, 2021): Anti-Graft Drive Chokes South African Ruling ANC’s Poll Funding
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Sada Malumfashi, The Africa Report (August 25, 2021): Nigeria: Is the northern voting bloc of Buhari falling apart?
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
RFI (August 29, 2021): Ecowas welcomes release of Mali’s former interim leaders from house arrest
Al Jazeera (August 27, 2021): Mali releases ex-interim president and PM from house arrest: Their detention by military officers in May marked Mali’s second coup since the overthrow of President Keita.
Reuters (August 27, 2021): Mali’s former prime minister arrested over corruption claims
Olivier-Rémy Bel and Petr Tůma, Atlantic Council (August 27, 2021): A cable from Mali: How to bring Bamako back from the brink
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022. These follow presidential and parliamentary elections on November 22, 2020, in the context of a growing security crisis as well as political uncertainty as the country’s democrats seek to consolidate the young, fragile democracy. President Roch Marc Christian Kabore won re-election. More
Africanews (August 28, 2021): Burkina Faso vows major security changes after deadly attack
Nadoun Coulibaly, The Africa Report (August 24, 2021): Islamic State, GSIM, al-Qaeda: The jihadist gold rush in Burkina Faso
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
The Economist (August 28, 2021): Kenya’s judges do their duty. A pity about its politicians
Christine Mungai, The Africa Report (August 27, 2021): Why Kenya’s judges will shape next year’s presidential elections
Helen Nyambura and Antony Sguazzin, Bloomberg (August 27, 2021): Next Africa: William Ruto’s Star Is Rising in Kenya
Emmanuel Onyango, BBC (August 26, 2021): Kenya’s Deputy President Ruto campaigns for ‘Hustler Nation’
South Sudan Elections: December 2022 (planned)
South Sudan plans to hold elections in December 2022, the first since independence in 2011. Salva Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. Additional election delays are possible.
RFI (August 30, 2021): Protests banned in Juba as South Sudan inaugurates new parliament
Reuters (August 30, 2021): Internet disrupted, streets quiet in South Sudan after call for protests
AFP (August 30, 2021): Activists go into hiding as South Sudan warns against protests
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2023. These will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. However, democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe.
Michelle Chifamba, The Africa Report (August 27, 2021): What’s really behind Zimbabwe’s POLAD scheme: Power or democracy?
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is an absolute monarchy. The country does hold parliamentary elections, but the parliament does not actually have much power, and the elections are tightly controlled, without much choice for voters.
On June 20, 2021, a series of protests calling for democratic reform began. Protests continue.
Fundile Maphanga and Christopher Vandome, Chatham House (August 25, 2021): eSwatini monarchy must address demands for democratic reform
Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)
The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.
The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, The Africa Report (August 25, 2021): DRC: ‘Elections in 2023 are not an option, but an obligation,’ says Moïse Katumbi
Past Africa Elections
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Tatenda Mazarura and Arnold Tsunga, Daily Maverick (August 30, 2021): Zambian elections: The good, bad and the ugly
Farai Mutsaka, AP (August 24, 2021): Zambians cheer inauguration of new leader Hakainde Hichilema
Stephanie Busari and David McKenzie, CNN (August 24, 2021): Zambia’s Hakainde Hichilema sworn in as President in rare victory for an African opposition leader
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Somaliland held its long-overdue parliamentary and local elections on May 31, 2021. The two main opposition parties, Waddani and UCID, together won more seats in parliament than the governing Kulmiye party. Waddani and UCID will team up to choose a parliament speaker and on local councils (where they also won). Somaliland is a presidential system, so there’s no PM. President Muse Bihi Abdi from Kulmiye remains head of state. But it is significant for democracy that the opposition won the “midterms.”
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections. More
Armen Rosen, Tablet (August 29, 2021): An Almost-Country in the Desert That Doesn’t Care About Your Understanding of Politics: Observing the recent elections in Somaliland
Namibia Local and Regional Elections: November 25, 2020
Namibia held local and regional elections on November 25, 2020. Namibia is a free, stable democracy, but since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party.
Swapo took a hit in these elections, losing control of the city council in the capital, Windhoek, and other cities. More
Regional Analysis
Rajen Harshé, Observer Research Foundation (August 26, 2021): Contours of Russia’s creeping expansionism in Africa
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (Proposed – twice delayed, from August 8 and August 29)
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021 (Following delays)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Tentative)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: August 28, 2021
Last Updated: September 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 28, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Argentina, Corrientes Provincial Elections: August 29, 2021, followed by Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Legislative Midterms
Ignacio Portes, Financial Times (August 28, 2021): Argentina’s president tries to contain fallout from lockdown party photos: Leaked pictures of first lady’s birthday party have led to impeachment calls against Fernández ahead of midterm vote
Reuters (August 28, 2021): Argentina’s president charged with allegedly breaking quarantine
Corrientes Provincial Elections
Daniel Rice, Foreign Brief (August 29, 2021): Corrientes gubernatorial and state elections to begin
Buenos Aires Times (August 27, 2021): Provincial lawmaker in Corrientes Province shot during election rally
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Canada will hold snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who currently heads a minority government, is hoping to win a majority for his Liberals. However, many Canadians do not want elections at this time, making the decision a major gamble.
Paul Vieira, Wall Street Journal (August 29, 2021): Soaring Canada Real Estate Prices Draw Campaign Pledges to Build Homes
BBC (August 28, 2021): Canada election: Justin Trudeau rally cancelled after angry protests
David Moscrop, Washington Post (August 25, 2021): Opinion: Canada’s election is heating up — and here come the slogans
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Committee to Protect Journalists (August 27, 2021): Nicaraguan authorities charge journalist Carlos Fernando Chamorro with financial crimes
DW (August 25, 2021): Nicaragua charges journalist with money laundering
Kai M. Thaler and Ryan C. Berg, Los Angeles Times (August 24, 2021): Op-Ed: To replace autocrats of Nicaragua, think beyond this fall’s election
Mario Medrano and Sharif Paget, CNN (August 24, 2021): Nicaragua detains another opposition leader in pre-election crackdown
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible)
Haiti plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises. The political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Jonathan Alpeyrie, Daily Beast (August 30, 2021): His Name Is Barbecue—and He’s Ready to Plunge Haiti Into War
World Politics Review (August 27, 2021): ‘We Have the Moral High Ground’: A Civil Society-Led Vision for Haiti’s Future
John Bacon, USA Today (August 25, 2021): 11 days after massive earthquake, miracles in the rubble as determined Haitians struggle to dig out
Lister Lim, Al Jazeera (August 25, 2021): Earthquake aid flowing after Haiti gang truce opens up highway
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Matthew Malinowski, Bloomberg (August 24, 2021): Chile’s Presidential Field Swells to Nine at Sign-Up Deadline
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties now say they will participate in the elections this year, while also calling for an early presidential election.
AFP (August 27, 2021): Guaido focused on advancing date for Venezuela elections
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras holds presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. These elections are taking place in the context of polarization and a crisis of legitimacy sparked in part by increasing authoritarianism. The 2017 elections were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud, and many believe that there is potential for fraud in the upcoming elections.
President Juan Orlando Hernández Alvarado from the conservative National Party, who first took office in 2013, is not eligible to run for another term. Four candidates are vying to succeed him: Nasry Asfura from the National Party, Xiomara Castro – wife of deposed former president Manuel Zelaya and a member of the leftist Libre party, businessman Yani Rosenthal from the Liberal Party, and Salvador Nasralla, who is running on an anti-corruption platform. More
Acadia Brooks, Foreign Brief (August 30, 2021): Honduran General Election Campaigns to Begin
Michael K. Lavers, Los Angeles Blade (August 25, 2021): Honduran government’s institutions ‘are murdering us’: Lack of opportunities, violence prompt LGBTQ people to migrate
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Duarte Mendonca, CNN (August 29, 2021): Bolsonaro says he will either be arrested, killed or win Brazil’s next election
Bryan Harris and Carolina Pulice, Financial Times (August 25, 2021): Brazil’s ‘third way’ candidates gear up to challenge Bolsonaro: Choice beyond hard right’s radicalism and left’s corruption scandals in next year’s polls
Lisandra Paraguassu, Reuters (August 24, 2021): Brazil governors concerned over Bolsonaro support among military police
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans began protesting in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Marcell Felipe, Miami Herald (August 24, 2021): Biden administration doesn’t seem to have a plan to secure a free Cuba. But we do | Opinion
Past Americas Elections
Peru Presidential Elections: April 11, 2021 and June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections this year. These elections came on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori alleged fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
MercoPress (August 28, 2021): Peru’s cabinet survives Parliamentarian vote of confidence
Ecuador Presidential Elections: February 7 and April 11, 2021
Ecuador held a presidential runoff on April 11, 2021. Conservative Guillermo Lasso, who edged out indigenous activist Yaku Pérez for a spot in the runoff, surprised many by decisively defeating left-wing economist Andrés Arauz, a protege of former president Rafael Correa (himself barred from running after being convicted of corruption).
Currently, the capital, Quito, is experiencing political tensions surrounding the mayor, Jorge Yunda, a left-wing populist who faces charges for embezzlement. Yunda, elected in 2019 with only 21 percent support, was removed by the council in June but recently reinstated by a court. Both supporters and opponents of Yunda have been holding protests. More
Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy (August 27, 2021): A Savvy Start for Ecuador’s New President: Reconciliation and vaccination have earned Guillermo Lasso a 73 percent approval rating. Can it last?
Bolivia General Election Re-Run: October 18, 2020
Bolivia held a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him.
Subsequently, Bolivia held local and regional elections in March and April, 2021. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
Rio Times (August 30, 2021): Opposition in Bolivia says that court system is “political weapon” of persecution
Samantha Schmidt, Washington Post (August 23, 2021): Genocide prosecution of former president tests Bolivia’s justice system
Regional Analysis
The Economist (August 25, 2021): Democracy is quickly eroding in Central America
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Bahamas Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 16, 2021
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible following assassination of president and catastrophic earthquake)
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: August 27, 2021
Last Updated: September 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 27, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Australia Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021 and Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. In Australia’s last federal elections in May 2019, the conservative Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, won a surprise victory, even though polls had predicted that Labor would oust them. The Liberals are currently in their third term in government.
Meanwhile, several states hold various types of elections in 2021. Northern Territory is the next to vote, with local elections on August 28.
Mitchell Abram and Isabel Moussalli, ABC News Australia (August 28, 2021): Alice Springs to get first new mayor in over a decade, as Territorians vote in council elections
Tom Lowrey, ABC News Australia (August 26, 2021): Changes to federal election rules including party sizes and names pass Parliament
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Macau is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, having reverted from Portuguese control to Chinese control in 1999. The main industry is gaming, with a casino sector seven times the size of that of Las Vegas. The legislature is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians, who hold 29 out of the 33 seats, with pro-democracy politicians holding the remaining four.
Most recently, pro-democracy candidates were banned from the upcoming elections, mirroring Hong Kong’s crackdown on democracy.
Nelson Moura, Macau Business (August 27, 2021): Legislative Assembly election campaign period to start with strict pandemic measures
Japan General Elections: By November 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by November, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest on September 29. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Jesse Johnson, Japan Times (August 28, 2021): To China’s chagrin, Japan-Taiwan talks could pave the way for closer ties
Yuko Nakano, Center for Strategic and International Studies (August 27, 2021): Five Things to Watch for in Japan’s Upcoming Elections
Kyodo News (August 26, 2021): PM Suga, Kishida to vie for LDP leadership in Sept. 29 election
Linda Sieg and Yoshifumi Takemoto, Reuters (August 23, 2021): Analysis: Risks of party revolt grow for Japan’s PM Suga after local poll loss
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021 (due)
Tonga is due to hold general elections by November 30, 2021. Along with other Pacific states, it is a focal point of geopolitical competition between China and the world’s democracies.
Susannah Luthi, Politico (August 29, 2021): Meth, Vanilla and ‘Gulags’: How China Has Overtaken the South Pacific One Island at a Time: What’s happening in Tonga is a microcosm of China’s expanding global influence and why the United States is losing ground fast.
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Zach Coleman, Nikkei Asia (August 26, 2021): Hong Kong purges last opposition voice from legislature
Selina Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press (August 25, 2021): Hong Kong Law Society members with establishment ties now dominate its council after liberals suffer election defeat
James Pomfret, Reuters (August 24, 2021): Hong Kong Law Society election underscores tensions over China, legal system
Kay Lee, Radio Free Asia (August 23, 2021): Candidate Withdraws From Hong Kong Law Society Elections, Citing Intimidation
Selina Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press (August 24, 2021): Democratic Party chief hits back after Lam says political parties shunning Hong Kong elections are ‘strange’
Bhutan Local Elections: Late 2021 (due)
Bhutan is due to hold local elections in some cities in late 2021.
Kuensel (August 28, 2021): Party affiliation could dash aspiring LG candidates’ hopes
Timor-Leste Local Elections: October 2021 (due) and Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) is due to hold local elections in October 2021 and a presidential election in March 2022. Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although some challenges remain.
Joao da Cruz Cardoso, The Diplomat (August 27, 2021): Is Timor-Leste Ready to Join ASEAN?
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the two biggest parties, PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress Party.
Sanjay Kumar, The Indian Express (August 27, 2021): An Expert Explains: Why isn’t the BJP keen on a caste-based census?
Aparna Alluri and Zoya Mateen, BBC (August 23, 2021): Caste census: Clamour to count India social groups grows
Sadanand Dhume, Foreign Affairs (August 24, 2021): How Democratic Is the World’s Largest Democracy?
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Sukjoon Yoon, The Diplomat (August 27, 2021): Like It or Not, the South Korea-US Alliance Is Changing
Julian Ryall, DW (August 27, 2021): South Korean journalists fear new laws will muzzle media
Jeong-Ho Lee, Bloomberg (August 25, 2021): South Korea Ruling Party Nears Passing ‘Fake News’ Bill
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
Philippines holds a presidential election on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Reuters (August 29, 2021): Rival faction in Philippines’ ruling party tries to oust Duterte from chairman role
Jason Gutierrez, New York Times (August 27, 2021): How Rodrigo Duterte Can Stay No. 1 by Becoming No. 2: The president of the Philippines says he’ll run for the vice presidency next year. Critics see a plot to avoid prosecution for the killings in his drug war.
Paolo Barcelon, CNN Philippines (August 26, 2021): 1SAMBAYAN launches Ateneo, La Salle chapters – but analyst says more needs to be done to get youth vote
Zacarian Sarao, Inquirer Philippines (August 24, 2021): 1Sambayan on Duterte’s VP bid: ‘A clear mockery of our Constitution’
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Mong Palatino, Global Voices (August 25, 2021): Cambodia’s China-funded mega dam linked to rights abuses and loss of fisheries
Radio Free Asia (August 25, 2021): Jailed Cambodian Union Leader Rong Chhun Urges Supporters to Carry on Fight For Justice
William Echols, Polygraph.info (August 23, 2021): Cambodia’s Misleading Excuse for Trampling Free Speech
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
Shannon Teoh and Ram Anand, The Straits Times (August 29, 2021): Still hope for Malaysia’s opposition pact Pakatan Harapan?
Ram Anand, The Straits Times (August 28, 2021): Anwar’s leadership of Pakatan Harapan questioned after third failed bid for power
Bhavan Jaipragas, South China Morning Post (August 28, 2021): Why the monarchy is the big winner from Malaysia’s political crisis
Editorial Board, Japan Times (August 27, 2021): Malaysia returns to the old order, old ways: Events in the Southeast Asian nation are contributing to the erosion of democracy in the region
Anisah Shukry, Bloomberg (August 25, 2021): Malaysia Opposition Hails ‘Good Beginning’ with New Premier
Dave Lawler, Axios (August 24, 2021): Malaysia’s new prime minister takes office amid COVID surge
Papua New Guinea General Elections: June/July 2022 (due)
Papua New Guinea is due to hold general elections in June or July 2022.
Radio New Zealand (August 27, 2021): PNG court orders recount for election which sparked violence
Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2024 (due)
Indonesia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in April 2024. In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenger Prabowo Subianto for the presidency. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics. More
Johannes Nugroho, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (August 27, 2021): Will Jokowi pull off a three-peat?
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Samoa General Elections: April 9, 2021
Samoa held general elections on April 9, 2021, and after a post-election roller coaster ride, a new prime minister has finally been inaugurated and approved by the courts. A new opposition party, Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST, “Faith in the one true God”), posed a new challenge to the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which has been in power since 1982.
FAST ultimately won the knife-edge election, but the former prime minister refused to concede and the ensuing political standoff lasted more than three months. Following a court decision, FAST was declared the winner of the elections and Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa was sworn in as prime minister – the first woman to hold the office.
Terence Wood, DevPolicyBlog (August 26, 2021): What political crises in Vanuatu and Samoa tell us about their past and future
Mark Quinlivan, Newshub New Zealand (August 26, 2021): Former Samoa Prime Minister who refused to concede election bizarrely blames Jacinda Ardern for defeat
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: August 26, 2021
Last Updated: October 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 26, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia holds parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates. More
Maria Snegovaya, Washington Post (August 25, 2021): Russia’s latest crackdown on dissent is much more sweeping than ever before
Meduza (August 25, 2021): Back with a vengeance After failing to meet goals in the 2019 Moscow municipal elections, Russia’s ruling establishment has ramped up efforts in 2021, but success in the State Duma is far from guaranteed
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Georgia has scheduled local elections for October 2, 2021, and they are particularly important because – as a result of a deal to resolve the political crisis following last year’s parliamentary elections – they could spark new parliamentary elections if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins less than 43 percent of the proportional vote. However, the ruling Georgian Dream scrapped the agreement in July, raising concerns about Georgia’s political stability. The political climate is tense, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout.
Most recently, an uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
Civil.ge (August 26, 2021): ODIHR Launches Georgia Election Observation Mission
Shota Kincha, OC Media (August 26, 2021): Georgian-Belarusian security cooperation deal worries political emigres in Georgia
Agenda.ge (August 25, 2021): Georgian ombudswoman recommends postponement of municipal elections
Agenda.ge (August 23, 2021): UNM, European Georgia present additional mayoral candidates for October local elections
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Kyrgyzstan’s leader has proposed re-running the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (August 26, 2021): Will Kyrgyzstan’s ‘False Information’ Law Threaten Free Speech?
RFE/RL (August 24, 2021): Kyrgyz President Signs Controversial ‘False Information’ Bill Into Law
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Moldova held snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016. More
Stephen McGrath and Aurel Obreja, AP (August 27, 2021): Moldova marks 30 years of independence from Soviet rule
Madalin Necsutu, Euronews (August 27, 2021): Why has it taken Moldova so long to shake off its Soviet legacy?
Victor Maxian and Amos Chapple, RFE/RL (August 26, 2021 – photo essay): Soviet Moldova, Then And Now
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (August 24, 2021): Moldova’s Govt Has ‘Unequivocal Mandate’ to Tackle Judicial Corruption
Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021
Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin.
Pashinyan became prime minister following the 2018 pro-democracy “Velvet Revolution.” However, he mostly maintained Armenia’s pro-Russia geopolitical stance, and that does not look likely to change in the near future.
Siba Jackson, Sky News (August 26, 2021): Armenia: Mass brawl erupts at parliament in Yerevan as former defence ministers branded ‘traitors’
Alex Galitsky, Foreign Policy (August 25, 2021): Peace on Azerbaijan’s Terms Won’t End the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Naira Bulghadarian, RFE/RL (August 23, 2021): Armenian Court Says Pro-Opposition Doctor Can Be Rearrested On Election Influence Charges
JAMnews (August 23, 2021): Armenian government accused of political persecution as another opposition MP faces arrest
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. More
AP (August 27, 2021): Belarus closes journalist organization, continuing crackdown
Meduza (August 26, 2021): Belarus refuses to open criminal investigation into police abuse during August 2020 protests
Patrick Howell O’Neill, MIT Technology Review (August 26, 2021): Hackers are trying to topple Belarus’s dictator, with help from the inside: Opposition from inside the regime of Alexander Lukashenko is helping hackers run what may be the most comprehensive cyberattack on a nation ever.
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Russia Parliamentary Elections: September 17-19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: August 25, 2021
Last Updated: September 5, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 25, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Berlin’s Hackesche Höfe. Germany holds elections on September 26 that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel, and it is anyone’s game. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Martin Abegglen (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 and Local Elections: October 17, 2021
Estonia – a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy – will hold an indirect presidential election starting on August 30 and local elections on October 17, 2021. In Estonia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial and representative role, with no executive power. The Riigikogu (parliament) elects the president.
Incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid is eligible to run for another term, and has been campaigning to be re-elected. However, even though Kaljulaid is popular (and polls suggest she would win a direct election), the government has nominated Alar Karis, director of the Estonian National Museum, because Ratas opposed another term for Kaljulaid.
Candidates register just a few days before the election, and new candidates can enter the race after the first round of voting, creating a high degree of uncertainty. Moreover, if parliament fails to elect a president – which requires a two-thirds majority – the process moves to an electoral college consisting of members of parliament and local government representatives (this happened in 2016).
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. More
Koen Verhelst, Euronews (August 25, 2021): Why is no one stepping forward to be Estonia’s next president?
ERR News (August 25, 2021): Feature: Estonia’s presidential election 2021
BNN (August 23, 2021): Estonian presidential candidate Karis gains backing of both government parties
ERR News (August 22, 2021): Center joins Reform in support for Alar Karis presidential candidacy
Sarah Lavigne, Calvert Journal (August 22, 2021): ‘You Until Death’: how one man’s music free Estonia from Soviet rule
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. She faces a serious challenge from the left-leaning opposition and the Greens. More
Stratfor (August 23, 2021): How Norway’s Election Could Impact Its Economic Future
Reuters (August 23, 2021): Police end Extinction Rebellion occupation of Norway’s oil ministry
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens have taken SPD’s place as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world. However, despite his unpopularity, Armin Laschet remains the favorite to succeed Merkel as chancellor. Nonetheless, German voters have a real choice and Baerbock, who comes from the party’s “realo” (moderate) wing as opposed to the “fundi” (radical) wing – has an actual shot at the top job. More
The Economist (August 28, 2021): A visit to a stronghold of the AfD, Germany’s far-right party
Dhara Ranasinghe and Yoruk Bahceli, Reuters (August 25, 2021): Germany’s Sept election and why it matters to markets
Kate Connolly, The Guardian (August 25, 2021): German Greens under fire over 19th-century folk song in election ad: Greens go for wide appeal with reworked campfire song with no mention of devastating floods
Silvia Amaro, CBNC (August 25, 2021): Germany’s Social Democrats are polling ahead of Merkel’s bloc for the first time in 15 years
Astrid Prange, DW (August 24, 2021): German election: How reliable are opinion polls?
RFE/RL (August 20, 2021): Merkel Makes Farewell Trip To Meet Putin Amid ‘Deep Disagreements’
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021 and Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Austria’s Upper Austria (whose capital is Linz, home of the Linzertorte cake) state holds elections in September. All four parties who have seats in the state legislature – ÖVP, FPÖ, the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the Greens – are part of the state government.
Austria is subsequently due to hold a presidential election by April 2022, but the role is largely ceremonial, with the chancellor instead holding most executive power.
Austria’s federal government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May 2019 following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. Subsequent snap elections gave ÖVP the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Ultimately, ÖVP formed a coalition with the Greens, and Kurz once again became chancellor.
Vienna.at (August 21, 2021 – in German): Upper Austria election: That’s the difference between 2021 and 2015
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More
William Nattrass, Expatz_cz (August 25, 2021): Recording-breaking number of women are running in Czech elections this year
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Bulgaria is due to hold a presidential election in October or November, and will possibly hold a third set of parliamentary elections if no government can be formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4).
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and there’s a strong chance of a third election, possibly around the time of the presidential election that is due this fall. More
RFE/RL (August 26, 2021): Bulgarian President To Ask Third Party To Form Government After Previous Attempts Fail
Denitsa Koseva, bne IntelliNews (August 25, 2021): New political deadlock in Bulgaria as parliament speaker says she won’t accept PM nomination
RFE/RL (August 20, 2021): Bulgaria Moves Closer To Third Election This Year After GERB Party Fails To Form Cabinet
Angel Petrov, Balkan Insight (August 20, 2021): Bulgaria is Struggling to Exit an Era of Political ‘Kings’
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Kosovo is due to hold local elections in 2021. These follow snap parliamentary elections that took place in February 2021. In those elections, Kosovo held on February 14. The left-wing nationalist Vetëvendosje won, potentially jeopardizing any resolution to a long-standing territorial dispute with Serbia. However, the new prime minister, Albin Kurti has also advocated for closer ties with the United States and Europe.
Scott Winter, Columbia Journalism Review (August 23, 2021): “In Kosovo, everybody has their own truth”
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
Dalibor Rohac, The Bulwark (August 24, 2021): The High-Water Mark of the New Nationalism in Central Europe?
Ábrahám Vass, Hungary Today (August 23, 2021): Opposition Primaries Procedure Begins to Find Strongest Candidates to Challenge Fidesz Next Year
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Claire Gallen and Stuart Williams (August 26, 2021): Ex-Brexit negotiator Barnier announces French presidential bid
Cain Burdeau, Courthouse News (August 26, 2021): French presidential campaign revs up after summer hiatus
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2022 (due)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is due to hold general elections in October 2020. The 202 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. More
Sead Turcalo, Balkan Insight (August 26, 2021): Bosnia Must Counter Russia’s Cultivation of Far-Right Extremists
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Sweden’s next elections are not due until September 2022, but in June 2021, the left-leaning coalition led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven fell in a no-confidence vote. Lofven was re-elected PM, but could fall in yet another no-confidence vote if his government cannot pass a budget. In August, Lofven suddenly announced his resignation, effective in November. It is unclear who will succeed him, but a possible candidate is Magdalena Andersson, currently the finance minister. She would be Sweden’s first female prime minister.
Reis Thebault, Washington Post (August 23, 2021): Sweden prime minister’s abrupt resignation upends the country and its politics
James Drew, EU Reporter (August 23, 2021): Swedish PM to step down in November ahead of 2022 elections
Ott Ummelas and Niclas Rolander, Bloomberg (August 22, 2021): Sweden’s Departing Premier Paves a Path for Finance Chief
Past Europe Elections
United Kingdom Local Elections (including Mayor of London and Scottish and Welsh parliaments): May 6, 2021
The United Kingdom (UK) held local elections on May 6, 2021. Voters will elected various local councils, plus the mayor of London, plus Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Overall, the Conservatives made gains on councils, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament.
The Scottish elections were particularly high-stakes because if the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has been demanding another referendum on independence. The SNP won the most seats, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum.
Pan Pylas, AP (August 20, 2021): Scottish Greens agree to back pro-independence government: The power-sharing deal could pave the way to another referendum on Scotland’s independence from the U.K.
Ireland General Elections: February 8, 2020
Ireland held general elections on February 8, 2020, to elect the Dáil Éireann (lower house of parliament) and choose the next government. These elections saw support decline for the two parties that had long been dominant and which had alternated stints in power: Fine Gael (which headed the government prior to 2020) and Fianna Fáil.
The differences between the two go back to the Irish Civil War of 1923. In the present era, their policies aren’t that different – both are generally centrist to center-right, although Fine Gael tends to be more free market on economic issues and liberal on social issues, while Fianna Fáil is more socially conservative and favors more government involvement in the economy.
Sinn Féin came in first in the 2020 elections, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in second and third respectively, and the Greens upper their seat share significantly. It represented a new fragmentation in Irish politics. Ultimately, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael formed a coalition, thus demoting Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar from Taoiseach (prime minister) to Tánaiste (deputy prime minister). The next elections are due by February 2025, although snap elections could happen.
Aidan Scully, Harvard Political Review (August 22, 2021): The Rise of the New Sinn Féin
Regional Analysis
Misha Savic, Bloomberg (August 26, 2021): Why the EU’s Balkan Expansion Faces a Long and Winding Road
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 (by parliament)
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: October/November 2021 (due)
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
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