Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 2021 (tentative)


Voters in Somaliland’s 2012 municipal elections. Photo credit: VOA/Kate Stanworth (public domain)

KEY FACTS
Freedom House Rating

Partly Free
Government Type
De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)
Population
3.5 million
UPCOMING ELECTIONS
Parliamentary Elections
Long Overdue (postponed from 2010)
Local Elections
Long Overdue (postponed from 2017)
Presidential Election
2022 (due)
PAST ELECTIONS
Presidential Election
November 13, 2017
Local Elections
November 28, 2012
Parliamentary Elections
September 29, 2005

Somaliland is long overdue to hold parliamentary and local elections, in which voters will elect all 82 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, and various local offices.

The parliamentary had been scheduled for December 2019 after multiple delays (the last – and in fact first – parliamentary elections took place in 2005), but they have yet again been postponed and no new date has been set. However, in February 2020, the major political parties agreed to hold the elections in late 2020. Subsequently, the parties once again pushed the date back – this time to May 2021.

Political Context

Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia. While the rest of Somalia was under Italian rule prior to independence, Somaliland had been under British rule. Although it joined Somalia following independence in 1961, relations were tense, and Somaliland ultimately declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after the government in Mogadishu collapsed. The self-proclaimed republic subsequently set about building independent democratic institutions, in contrast to the chaos in the south of Somalia. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.

Somaliland’s 2001 constitution – which citizens approved in a referendum that passed with 97 percent of the vote – established a multiparty system. Since then, although there has only been one set of parliamentary elections, Somaliland has held three presidential elections and two sets of local elections.

In contrast to the rest of Somalia, Somaliland holds direct elections. The country’s elections have generally been considered credible by domestic and international observers, but constant election delays have weakened the country’s democratic credentials.

Somaliland’s Three-Party System

Clans play a major role in Somaliland politics. Like Somalia, Somaliland is ethnically, linguistically, and religiously homogeneous. However, individuals identify strongly with their clans, which are based on ancestral lineages. In order to prevent politics from devolving into clan warfare by other means by preventing each clan or sub-clan from forming its own political party, Somaliland instituted a three-party system. While Somalilanders are free to form political associations as they see fit, the country’s constitution allows for three official political parties – the top three political associations in municipal elections become the official parties which could then contest parliamentary and presidential elections. Moving from clan-based politics to issue-based politics remains a challenge, although the parties have made strides.

Following the first municipal elections in 2002, the three official parties were the Union of Democrats (UDUB), which at the time held the country’s presidency; Kulmiye (“solidarity”); and For Justice and Development (UCID).

Many of Kulmiye’s leaders had been part of the Somali National Movement (SNM), a militia group that had been involved in the fight to overthrow Somalia’s military dictator, Siad Barre, and later fought for Somaliland’s independence. In contrast, many UDUB leaders served in the Somali government under Siad Barre. UCID, meanwhile, finds much of its support among the diaspora community, and appeals primarily to urban voters.

The 2010 Election and Transfer of Power

The 2010 presidential election led to a transfer of power from UDUB to Kulmiye, when Kulmiye’s candidate Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud “Silanyo” defeated incumbent Dahir Riyale Kahin. UDUB subsequently dissolved.

In the 2012 municipal elections, six political associations competed (15 had applied, but nine were disqualified), and the top three became official political parties. Kulmiye was the top vote-getter. Wadani, a new party formed by former UCID members and joined by UDUB members of parliament, came in second, while UCID placed third.

The 2017 Election and Growing Tensions

The 2017 presidential election was a closely-fought contest between Kulmiye and Wadani, with Kulmiye’s Muse Bihi Abdi ultimately prevailing over Wadani’s Abdirahman Cirro. Both candidates used heated rhetoric, and the country became quite polarized. Wadani initially rejected the results, but when international observers concluded that despite some irregularities the election was generally credible, Wadani conceded.

Wadani and Kulmiye continue to clash over preparations for the elections and the composition of the election commission.

Geopolitical Context

Somaliland has a strategic location on the Gulf of Aden. In that vein, foreign powers have made moves to establish bases. For example, the United Arab Emirates began building a military base in Berbera, although the project has since morphed into a civilian airport. Russia is also seeking to build a military – reportedly in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence.

In July 2020, in a surprise move, Taiwan announced diplomatic relations with Somaliland, a move China unsuccessfully tried to stop.

Somaliland’s relations with Somalia have been tense since it broke away, but in June 2020 – for the first time since 1991 – the presidents of Somalia and Somaliland met in person (in Djibouti). However, the two parties are still very far apart on how to move forward. As VOA’s Mohammed Yusuf notes: “Mogadishu’s technical team on the talks is led by the interior minister, signaling that Somalia considers the talks an internal matter. Somaliland’s team is led by the foreign affairs minister, signaling that Hargeisa sees the talks as a negotiation between two states.”

Curated News and Analysis

Somaliland Sun (August 26, 2020): Somaliland: Major Election Stakeholders Concur on May 2021 Polls

Mohammed Yusuf, VOA (August 7, 2020): Analysts Hope Elections Do Not Slow Somalia-Somaliland Talks

Nick Aspinwall, The Diplomat (July 10, 2020): Taiwan Throws a Diplomatic Curveball by Establishing Ties With Somaliland

Maria Gerth-Niculescu, DW (December 1, 2019): Somaliland is on a rocky political path

The Economist (November 13, 2017): Why Somaliland is east Africa’s strongest democracy

Jason Beaubien, NPR (May 30, 2017): Somaliland Wants To Make One Thing Clear: It Is NOT Somalia

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here

Updated September 30, 2020

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