Americas

October 9, 2021

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

Iguazu Falls, Paraguay. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Beatriz Posada Alonso (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Paraguay Municipal Elections: October 10, 2021

Paraguay holds local elections on October 10, 2021. On June 20, many of the political parties held primary elections. The federal government is led by President Mario Abdo Benítez from the conservative Colorado Party, which also won a majority in the lower house of the legislature in the 2018 elections (no party holds a majority in the Senate). Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.

Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.

DW (October 10, 2021 – in Spanish): Paraguay registers new attack one day before elections:: During the electoral campaign, at least 10 candidates in different parts of the country were victims of attacks.

Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021

Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.

Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).

AP (October 7, 2021): Nicaraguan opposition says elections “void and illegitimate”

La Croix International (October 5, 2021): Nicaragua: Bishop calls for peace; president calls bishops “terrorists”

Graham Keeley, Voice of America (October 5, 2021): Nicaraguan Journalists Describe ‘Atmosphere of Fear’

Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)

Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.

Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.

Stratfor (October 8, 2021): Argentina: Government to Increase Social Welfare Spending Through October

The Economist (October 7, 2021): Javier Milei, a libertarian, may be elected to Argentina’s congress: His rise in Buenos Aires hints at disaffection with Peronism

Buenos Aires Times (October 4, 2021): Argentina investors got election wish, then got hammered anyway: Argentina’s primary election went just the way investors wanted, but since then bonds have taken a nose dive.

Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021

Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly. 

The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.

These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More

MercoPress (October 6, 2021): Chilean opposition agree to seek Piñera’s impeachment in view of Pandora Papers

Bloomberg (October 6, 2021): Left-Wing Rage Threatens a Wall Street Haven in Latin America: A leftist leader rises in Chile. Will its vaunted economic miracle survive?

Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021

Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.

Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (October 6, 2021): EU decision to validate Venezuela’s fraudulent elections a slap in the face to democracy

Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022

Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there will be 27 presidential candidates from various parties.

Rio Times (October 6, 2021): Costa Rica starts electoral process with 27 candidates for the presidency

Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022

Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots recently. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died. 

Holly K. Sonneland and Hope Wilkinson, AS/COA (October 4, 2021): Explainer: Who’s Who in Colombia’s 2022 Presidential Race

Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022

Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More

Reuters (October 7, 2021): Brazil’s Lula, eyeing 2022 elections, visits trash recycling workers

Simone Preissler Iglesias and Daniel Carvalho, Bloomberg (October 6, 2021): A Powerful, Right-Wing Party Emerges in Brazil Without Bolsonaro

AP (October 2, 2021): Thousands in Brazil protest Bolsonaro, seek his impeachment

Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed

Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.

Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).

Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).

Zoe Strozewski, Newsweek (October 7, 2021): U.S. Pledges to Help End Political Discord in Haiti as Migration Continues

AFP (October 5, 2021): UN Security Council accepts Haiti election delay to 2022

UN News (October 4, 2021): Haiti facing stalled elections, kidnapping surge, rampant insecurity

Past Americas Elections

Bahamas Snap General Elections: September 16, 2021

Bahamas held snap elections on September 16, eight months early. The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power.

In these elections, PLP ousted FNM.

John Mohr, War on the Rocks (October 4, 2021): The Bahamas: A Close but Unfamiliar U.S. Partner

Bolivia General Election Re-Run: October 18, 2020

Bolivia held a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him.

Subsequently, Bolivia held local and regional elections in March and April, 2021. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More

Connor Elliott, Foreign Brief (October 7, 2021): Bolivian Regional Governor to Testify in Ex-President’s Trial

AFP (October 5, 2021): Bolivia opposition call march to demand release of ex-president

Regional Analysis

Jan Martínez Ahrens, El País (October 3, 2021): Pandora Papers in Latin America: Three active heads of state and 11 former presidents operated in tax havens

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022

Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021

Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021

Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021

Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021

Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021

Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021

Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021 (delays possible)

Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022

Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022

Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022

Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Asia

October 8, 2021

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

The Daoist Wong Tai Sin Temple in Hong Kong. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Edwin.11 (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

Japan General Elections: October 31, 2021

Japan’s new prime minister, Fumio Kishida, plans to hold general elections on October 31, a bit earlier than the November deadline. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.

These elections follow the LDP’s September 29 leadership contest. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga did not seek re-election. Kishida defeated vaccine czar Kono Taro in a runoff, as well as the hawkish former internal affairs minister Takaichi Sanae and former gender equality minister Noda Seiko.

Mari Yamaguchi, AP (October 8, 2021): Kishida vows to lead with ‘trust and empathy’ to fix Japan

Sheila A. Smith, Council on Foreign Relations (October 5, 2021): The Road Ahead for Japan’s New Prime Minister

Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021

Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More

Tim Pringle and Peng Pai, Jacobin (October 8, 2021): Hong Kong’s Trade Unions Are Under Attack

Kelly Ho, Hong Kong Free Press (October 6, 2021): Hong Kong Policy Address: Gov’t examining plan to allow Hongkongers in China to vote in Dec legislative election. An opinion poll conducted for HKFP showed that only 17 per cent of Hongkongers approve of the proposal.

Tony Cheung, South China Morning Post (October 5, 2021): No new voters? No problem: Beijing ‘unlikely to blame’ Hong Kong’s pro-establishment camp for lack of interest in coming poll

Timor-Leste Local Elections: Fall 2021 (due) and Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)

Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) is due to hold local elections in October 2021 and a presidential election in March 2022. Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although some challenges remain.

Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (October 4, 2021): Why Has East Timor Built the Strongest Democracy in Southeast Asia?

Sri Lanka Provincial Elections: 2021

Sri Lanka plans to hold provincial elections in 2021. In the 2019 presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, brother of former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, won.  Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice.

Rezaul H Laskar, Hindustan Times (October 6, 2021): India asks Sri Lanka to devolve powers to Tamil minority, hold provincial council elections

Meera Srinivasan, The Hindu (October 4, 2021): Hold provincial council polls without delay, India urges Sri Lanka

India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)

Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi.

Vivan Marwaha, BBC (October 4, 2021): Viewpoint: Why India’s millennials support PM Narendra Modi

Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022

In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.

Alan Robles, South China Morning Post (October 9, 2021): Philippine presidential election: who’s running, who’s favourite and what’s their China policy?

Frank Langfitt and Charles Maynes, NPR (October 8, 2021): The Nobel Peace Prize goes to journalists in the Philippines and Russia

Michael Beltran, The Diplomat (October 8, 2021): Philippines Presidential Race: Marcos and the Specter of Martial Law: With Bongbong entering the race, and the Dutertes floating around the edges, the Philippine presidential election is stirring up dark memories.

Reuters (October 6, 2021): Philippines rights groups decry presidential bid of late dictator’s son

Reuters (October 3, 2021): Philippines’ Duterte says daughter running for president in 2022 elections – media

Jim Gomez and Joeal Calupitan, AP (October 2, 2021): Philippine leader Duterte announces retirement from politics

AP (October 1, 2021): Manny Pacquiao, boxer and Duterte rival, files bid for presidency as Philippine race heats up

Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021.

Tensions with China are rising as Australia’s federal government has cancelled several Belt and Road deals. More

Colin Packham, Reuters (October 5, 2021): Social conservative and economic reformer elected to lead Australia’s most populous state

Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2024 (due)

Indonesia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in April 2024. In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenger Prabowo Subianto for the presidency. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics. More

Kishore Mahbubani, Project Syndicate (October 6, 2021): The Genius of Jokowi

Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends

Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.

The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More

Ran Anand, The Straits Times (October 5, 2021): Melaka state assembly dissolved, paving way for state elections

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020

Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More

Paul Donowitz, The Hill (October 6, 2021): In the wake of Burma’s coup, new US legislation offers a roadmap for action

Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022

Japan Parliamentary Elections: October 31, 2021

Tonga General Elections: November 18, 2021

New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021

Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021

Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021

Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: 2021 (due)

Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)

Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)

India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)

South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022

Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)

Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022

Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)

Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022

Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)

India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)

Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Taiwan Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Eurasia

October 7, 2021

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A street in Batumi, on Georgia’s Black Sea coast. Georgia just held local elections in a climate of deep political tensions. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Sandro Chikobava (public domain)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021

Kyrgyzstan will hold parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More

Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (October 6, 2021): Kyrgyzstan: A Year Since October 2020: It’s been a year since Kyrgyzstan erupted in post-election protests and precipitated the fall of yet another government in Bishkek.

Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL (October 5, 2021): Controversy And Confusion Again In Kyrgyzstan’s Parliamentary Elections

Past Eurasia Elections

Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021

Georgia held local elections on October 2, 2021 in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of former president Mikheil Saakashvili on the eve of the vote.

A recent uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More

Peter Dickinson, Atlantic Council (October 5, 2021): Saakashvili arrest overshadows Georgian ruling party’s election win

Tony Wesolowsky, RFE/RL (October 5, 2021): Instead Of A Hero’s Welcome, Georgian Ex-President Saakashvili Faces Years In Prison

Reuters (October 3, 2021): Georgia ruling party wins local election after arrest of ex-president

Irakli Metreveli, AFP (October 3, 2021): Georgia Ruling Party Leads Polls, Opposition Alleges Fraud

Russia Parliamentary Elections: September 17-19, 2021

Russia held parliamentary elections September 17-19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.

Consequently, the Kremlin launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him were banned from the election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – was able to field candidates. 

Moreover, international technology companies such as Google and Apple assisted the regime by removing apps associated with Navalny’s Smart Vote. More

RFE/RL (October 7, 2021): Poll: Trust In Putin Drops To Lowest Levels Since 2012

András Tóth-Czifra, Institute of Modern Russia (October 6, 2021): Whither legitimacy? Lessons of Russia’s rigged elections

Robyn Dixon, Washington Post (October 6, 2021): Russia’s rising young communists pose an unexpected new threat to Putin’s grip

Reuters (October 5, 2021): Ukraine imposes sanctions on 95 people after Russian vote in annexed Crimea, report says

William Partlett, The Conversation (October 4, 2021): Russia is building its own kind of sovereign internet — with help from Apple and Google

Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021

Moldova held snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, no party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.

Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016. More

Iulian Ernst, bne IntelliNews (October 6, 2021): Moldova’s head prosecutor arrested on four counts of corruption

Saran Vladislav, Institute for War and Peace Reporting (October 5, 2021): Moldova: Sandu Continues European Pivot: Moscow irked by Chisinau’s growing closeness to its regional neighbours

Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021

Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin.

Pashinyan became prime minister following the 2018 pro-democracy “Velvet Revolution.” However, he mostly maintained Armenia’s pro-Russia geopolitical stance, and that does not look likely to change in the near future.

Baltic Times (October 4, 2021): Lithuanian president calls on Armenian PM to step up implementation of democratic reforms

Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021

Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature. More

Hubert-Felix Delattre, Charles-Adrien Fourmi, Dylan van de Ven, and Gabrielle Valli, New Eastern Europe (October 4, 2021): Nazarbayev’s handmade political transition in Kazakhstan

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022

Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021

Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021

Belarus Constitutional Referendum: By February 2022 (proposed)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Europe

October 6, 2021

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A street in Prague. The October 8-9 elections in the Czech Republic will be hotly contested. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Massimo Catarinella (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Europe Elections

Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021

The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More

Karel Janicek, AP (October 6, 2021): Pandora Papers a worry for Czech PM Babis ahead of election

BBC (October 6, 2021): Czech elections: Billionaire PM asks voters for more time at top

Monika Brusenbauch Meislová and Petr Suchý, London School of Economics (September 30, 2021): Czech election: Assessing the foreign policy positions of each of the main parties

Kosovo Local Elections: October 17, 2021

Kosovo holds local elections on October 17, 2021. These follow  snap parliamentary elections that took place in February 2021. In those elections, Kosovo held on February 14. The left-wing nationalist Vetëvendosje won, potentially jeopardizing any resolution to a long-standing territorial dispute with Serbia. However, the new prime minister, Albin Kurti has also advocated for closer ties with the United States and Europe.

Perparim Isufi, Balkan Insight (October 1, 2021): Kosovo’s Ruling Party Faces Reality Check in Local Elections

Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021

Bulgaria is holding a presidential election on November 14 along with a third set of parliamentary elections since no government was formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4). In Bulgaria’s parliamentary system, the prime minister holds executive power, while the president is largely ceremonial.

In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact,  a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election. 

In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused. Therefore, Bulgarians will head to the polls for a third time. More

RFE/RL (October 6, 2021): Bulgaria, North Macedonia Map Path Out Of Standoff Blocking EU Progress

Sinisa Jakov Marusic, Balkan Insight (October 6, 2021): Borissov Pledges to End Bulgaria’s Standoff with North Macedonia

Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (October 1, 2021): Ex-PM Borissov’s party nominates Sofia University rector for president

Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (October 1, 2021): Bulgarian Presidential Race Tightens as GERB-Backed Candidate Unveiled

EU Reporter (October 1, 2021): The re-election of pro-Russian General Radev as President of Bulgaria is threatened by professor of Latin studies

Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021 and Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)

Austria is due to hold a presidential election in April 2022, although in the country’s parliamentary system, the presidential role is largely ceremonial. Moreover, Austria’s Upper Austria (whose capital is Linz, home of the Linzertorte cake) state held elections in September. All four parties who have seats in the state legislature – ÖVP, FPÖ, the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the Greens – are part of the state government.

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s ÖVP remained the biggest party, but a new anti-lockdown party called People Freedom Fundamental Rights (MFG) won 6.2 percent of the vote, enough to secure seats. Meanwhile, the state of Styria held local elections, and the Communists – who normally get 1 percent of the vote nationally – won an unprecedented victory in the mayoral contest in Graz, Austria’s second-largest city.

Francois Murphy, Reuters (October 6, 2021): Austrian prosecutors target Kurz in bribery investigation

Matthew Karnitschnig, Politico (October 6, 2021): Austria’s Kurz under suspicion for bribery and embezzlement in corruption probe: Prosecutors believe chancellor masterminded illegal effort to pay off pollsters and journalists in his rise to power.

Oliver Noyan, Euractiv (October 1, 2021): Austrian Communists caught in controversy over praise for Lukashenko regime

France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign. 

Reuters (October 6, 2021): Zemmour seen breaking Macron-Le Pen duopoly in 2022 French election – poll

AFP (October 6, 2021): Surge by far-right pundit Zemmour shakes up French election

Clea Caulcutt and Pauline de Saint Remy, Politico (October 5, 2021): Michel Barnier’s French presidential bid gets fresh legs: The EU’s former Brexit negotiator is ramping up his presidential campaign and supporters see hope in how the conservatives plan to pick a candidate.

Christopher Caldwell, New York Times (October 4, 2021): A Pillar of the European Order Has Collapsed

Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times (October 1, 2021): Europe’s Social Democrats Show Signs of Life, but France Poses a Roadblock

Xiaofei Xu and Saskya Vandoorne, CNN (September 30, 2021): Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy guilty of illegal campaign financing, receives 1-year sentence

Jonathan Miller, The Spectator (September 29, 2021): The demise of Marine Le Pen

Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022 – snap elections possible

Slovenia is due to hold elections in June 2022, but snap elections are possible. The current government is a conservative minority coalition headed by populist Janez Janša. It came to power in January 2020 after the center-left minority government of Marjan Šarec collapsed.

DW (October 5, 2021): Slovenia: Police disperse protesters ahead of EU summit

Alem Maksuti, Balkan Insight (October 4, 2021): Slovenian Opposition Must Grasp Opportunity for Different Social Order

Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)

Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, he has become increasingly friendly with China.

A number of opposition parties are holding a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Three candidates are advancing to the runoff: European Parliament vice president Klara Dobrev from the liberal Democratic Coalition, Budapest mayor Gergely Karacsony from the center-left, and conservative independent Peter Marki-Zay. The winner will challange Orbán in the general election.

Justin Spike, AP (October 1, 2021): Three candidates advance in Hungary’s first national primary

Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg (September 30, 2021): Orban Foe Seeking to Raze His Regime Vaults to Primary Lead

Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2022 (due)

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is due to hold general elections in October 2020. The 202 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. More

Srecko Latal, Balkan Insight (October 5, 2021): Radical Rhetoric in Bosnia Revives Fears of New Conflict

Reuters (September 30, 2021): Bosnia’s peace envoy hopes for electoral reform before 2022 vote

Past Europe Elections

Italy, Mayoral Elections in Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and other cities and regional elections in Calabria: October 3-4, 2021

Italy held hold regional elections in Calabria in the south, as well as mayoral elections in several major cities, on October 3 and 4. The center-left was the big winner of the day.

The next general elections aren’t due until June 2023, but as is ever the case with Italy, snap elections are possible. However, in January 2021, the government collapsed after former prime minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his support. Former European Central Bank chief Mario “Super Mario” Draghi formed a government in February 2021.

Justin Klawans, Newsweek (October 6, 2021): Far-Right Granddaughter of Benito Mussolini Wins Election as Rome City Councilor

Angelo Amante and Gavin Jones, Reuters (October 4, 2021): Centre-left wins Italian mayoral elections, 5-Star loses Rome

Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian (October 4, 2021): M5S mayor of Rome facing election defeat, exit polls suggest: Virginia Raggi shown in third place behind far-right candidate and centre-left one, who could go to a runoff

Hannah Roberts, Politico (October 4, 2021): 5 takeaways from Italy’s local elections

Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)

Germany held several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), headed by Olaf Scholz, placed first, with 25.7 percent of the vote. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian partner Christian Social Union (CSU), suffered a historic defeat in these elections, placing second with 24.1 percent of the vote, possibly due to the personal unpopularity of its standard-bearer, Armin Laschet, who made a series of gaffes during the campaign.

A big story during the election was the rise of the Greens, who even topped opinion polls at various points, but ultimately placed third. They portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, choosing pragmatist Annalena Baerbock as their standard-bearer. Finally, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) placed fourth, with 11 percent of the vote, after five years of having no seats in the Bundestag (since FDP failed to meet the 5 percent threshold in the 2017 elections).

Since another “grand coalition” between CDU/CSU and SPD – the current government – is unlikely for a variety of reasons, the next government will most likely consist of three parties. It could either be a “Jamaica coalition” of CDU/CSU, FDP, and the Greens, or a “traffic light coalition” consisting of SPD, plus FDP and the Greens. The Greens and FDP are holding talks with one another before negotiating with either CDU/CSU or SPD, and reaching any sort of deal could take months.

BBC (October 6, 2021): German elections: ‘Kingmaker’ parties back centre-left coalition talks

Euronews/AP (October 4, 2021): German election: ‘Political speed dating’ as coalition talks intensify

The Economist (October 2, 2021): The Social Democrats are likely to take charge in Germany. But forging a coalition will be slow and difficult after a tight election

Marc Santora and Melissa Eddy, New York Times (September 29, 2021): Do Germany’s Election Results Signal a Left Turn for Europe? It is too early to tell, but the results certainly illustrate a fragmentation in politics and the growing influence of personalities.

Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021

Iceland held elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government, a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party, looks likely to remain in power. More

Andie Sophi Fontaine, Reykjavik Grapevine (October 5, 2021): Election Update: Coalition Talks Continue, Result Uncertain

Albania Parliamentary Elections: April 25, 2021

Albania held parliamentary elections on April 25, 2021 in a tense political climate with several violent incidents. Since communism collapsed in 1990, Albania has held competitive elections and several transitions of power between political parties. The elections were close, and the incumbent Socialist Party won a third term in office, defeating the main opposition center-right Democratic Party. More

AFP (October 6, 2021): Frustrated Balkans seek reassurance at EU summit

Bledar Qalliu, Exit Albania (October 1, 2021): Albanian Opposition Sets the Stage for Political Battles amid Internal Strife

Romania Parliamentary Elections: December 6, 2020

Romania held parliamentary elections on December 6. Amid low turnout due partly to COVID-19, the scandal-plagued leftist Social Democrats (PSD) unexpectedly came in first place. However, a coalition of parties formed a center-right government, headed by Florin Cîțu from the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL). More

Levon Kameryan, Yahoo Finance (October 6, 2021): The Prolonged Political Crisis in Romania Endangers Fiscal Consolidation and Reform Agenda

Andra Timu and Irina Vilcu, Bloomberg (October 5, 2021): Romanian PM Ousted in Confidence Vote After Less Than Year

Europe After Merkel

Ryan Heath, Politico (October 4, 2021): Who’s Biden gonna call after Merkel? Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and the EU are all fighting to lead Europe. But it’s not that simple.

Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022

Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021

Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021

North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021

Kosovo Local Elections: October 17, 2021

Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021

Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021

Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022

Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022

France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022

Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)

Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)

Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022

France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022

Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)

Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)

Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Middle East

October 5, 2021

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

Old Basra, Iraq. Iraq holds early elections on October 10. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Lordali91 (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021

Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability.

The current political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls. The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but has since reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. More

Samya Kullab, AP (October 6, 2021): Sunday’s vote in Iraq clouded by a disillusioned electorate

The Observers, France24 (October 5, 2021 – video): Activists call to boycott Iraq’s upcoming elections over corruption, militia violence

Qassim Abdul-Zahra, AP (October 5, 2021): Iraq’s militias seek to consolidate political power in vote

Al Jazeera (October 1, 2021): Iraqis march in Baghdad to mark protests anniversary

Haitham Numan, Carnegie Endowment (September 30, 2021): Iraqi Elections: A Fragile Balance Set Up to Fail

Reuters (September 28, 2021): Factbox: Who’s competing in Iraq’s elections?

Algeria Early Local Elections: November 27, 2021

Algeria plans to hold early local elections on November 27, 2021. These follow the snap elections held on June 12, 2021, following more than two years of protests by the Hirak movement. However, the government’s election plan did not actually satisfied the Hirak, who boycotted the elections and continue to protest. The absence of the Hirak, who are mostly secular, from the elections has paved the way for Islamist parties to become the main opposition. Ultimately, the FLN, the country’s long-dominant nationalist secular party, won the elections.

Adel Ourabah, Arab Reform Initiative (September 30, 2021): The “New Algeria” Parliament and the Illusion of Change from Within

Palestinian Authority Local Elections Stage 1 of 2: December 11, 2021, plus Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed indefinitely

The Palestinian Authority has proposed holding local elections on December 11, 2021. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. 

Daily Sabah with Andalou Agency (October 4, 2021): Registration for Palestinian municipal elections opens in West Bank

Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021 (tentative)

Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed indefinitely due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. More

AFP (October 5, 2021): Libyan lawmakers postpone parliamentary elections until January

Jamey Keaten and Samy Magdy, AP (October 4, 2021): UN experts decry possible crimes against humanity in Libya

Al Jazeera (October 4, 2021): Libya parliament adopts law on legislative elections

Edith M. Lederer, AP (September 30, 2021): Divided UN extends its mission in Libya till after elections

Jordan Local Elections: Fall 2021 (due)

Jordan is due to hold local elections in fall 2021. These follow parliamentary elections, which happened on November 10, 2020. Turnout was low, and both women and Islamist candidates saw poor results. Subsequently, King Abdullah II announced a new high-level committee to enact political reforms. This is not the first such effort in Jordan, and past attempts at change have been a disappointment to those who hope for reform, but it could be promising. More

Jordan Times (October 4, 2021): Royal Committee proposes inclusive, mixed electoral system

Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (but will likely take place earlier)

Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.

Mouafac Harb, Daily Star Lebanon (October 4, 2021): Iran’s new policy put to the test in Lebanon and Iraq

ANSA (September 28, 2021): Lebanon: PM says elections to take place 27 March 2022

Pakistan Local Elections in Islamabad: Due in 2021 – delays possible

Islamabad’s local government’s term ended in February 2021, and elections are overdue. Officials have said they will hold them by early 2022, but delays are possible

Ali Slimi, Foreign Brief (October 5, 2021): Pakistan election body prepares for upcoming elections

Stephanie Findlay, Financial Times (September 30, 2021): ‘A win for Pakistan’: Imran Khan gambles on Taliban ties

Past Middle East Elections

Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2, 2021

Qatar held its first-ever parliamentary elections (Shura Council elections) on October 2, 2021. Qatar is an absolute monarchy in which the emir holds all political power. The only elections that the country had ever previously held were for the Central Municipal Council, an advisory body with no real power. Political parties are not allowed. Moreover, the vast majority of people who live in Qatar are not citizens, and have no political rights. The Shura Council has existed since 1972, but has few real powers. 

Some have criticized these elections as a cosmetic reform undertaken because of increased pressure because Qatar will be hosting the football World Cup in 2022. More

AFP (October 3, 2021): Female candidates unsuccessful in first Qatari legislative elections

Andrew Mills and Lisa Barrington, Reuters (October 2, 2021): Qatar’s first legislative elections see 63.5% voter turnout

Simone Foxman, Bloomberg (October 1, 2021): Qatar Votes in First Election With World Cup Spotlight Ahead

Kuwait Parliamentary Elections: December 5, 2020

Kuwait held parliamentary elections on December 5, 2020. As could be expected, COVID-19 and the government’s response shaped public debate ahead of the elections. Meanwhile, populism is on the rise, exacerbated by the pandemic and falling oil prices. More

Ahmed Hagagy, Reuters (October 4, 2021): Kuwait launches dialogue to end standoff with parliament

Fiona MacDonald, Bloomberg (September 29, 2021): Kuwaiti Ruler Makes Unprecedented Call for Dialogue Amid Impasse

Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.  Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.

In July 2021, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup. The move has sparked protests and condemnations from political and civil society actors in Tunisia.

Reuters (October 3, 2021): Tunisia arrests lawmaker and TV presenter who called president a traitor

Al Jazeera (October 3, 2021): Tunisia: Thousands rally in support of President Saied: Demonstrators waved Tunisian flags and carried placards critical of Ennahdha.

The Economist (October 2, 2021): Kais Saied plans to transform Tunisia. It may go bust first

Vivian Yee, New York Times (September 29, 2021): Tunisian President Appoints Prime Minister Amid Protests Over Power Grab: President Kais Saied named Najla Bouden Romdhan, the country’s first female prime minister. But it may do little to dispel fears he is moving toward one-man rule of the nation where the Arab Spring began.

Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019

Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.

Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.

The Economist (October 7, 2021): Pakistan got its way in Afghanistan. Now what? The victory of its friends in the Taliban may exacerbate Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic problems

Brent Swails, Clarissa Ward and Scott McWhinnie, CNN (October 4, 2021): Women in Kabul return to work, school and the streets, in defiance of the Taliban

Zeba Siddiqui and Parniyan Zemaryalai, Reuters (October 4, 2021): Protests get harder for Afghan women amid risks and red tape

Abdul Farid Ahmad, Newsweek (October 2, 2021): 2 Weeks of Darkness in Afghanistan

Human Rights Watch (October 1, 2021): Afghanistan: Taliban Severely Restrict Media

Michael Kugelman, Foreign Policy (September 30, 2021): Pakistan Pitches the Taliban Regime to the World

Anna P. Kambhampaty, New York Times (September 29, 2021): #DoNotTouchMyClothes: Afghan Women Protest Taliban Restrictions on Rights

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022

Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021

Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: Fall 2021 (due)

Palestinian Authority Local Elections Stage 1 of 2: December 11, 2021 (tentative)

Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021

Lebanon Early Parliamentary Elections: March 27, 2022

Algeria Early Local Elections: November 27, 2021

Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled

Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19

Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Africa

October 4, 2021

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A street in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, begins his second term amid multiple crises. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Sam Effron (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021

Cabo Verde, a stable democracy with regular elections and peaceful transfers of power, holds a presidential election on October 17, 2021, following parliamentary elections that took place on April 18, 2021. The incumbent center-right MpD won, defeating the socialist PAICV (which had run Cabo Verde as a one-party state until 1990, but MpD won a historic victory in 2016).

Cabo Verde’s strategic location in the Atlantic has made it the site of increasing geopolitical competition between the U.S., NATO, and the EU on one hand and China on the other. While PAICV advocates strong links with Beijing, and has a party-to-party relationship with the Chinese Communist Party, current PM Ulisses Correia e Silva from MpD advocates stronger links with NATO and the West. More

Eugene Teixeira, Voice of America (September 30, 2021 – in Portuguese): Presidents in Cape Verde: Carlos Veiga and José Maria Neves show their credentials

RFI (September 30, 2021 – in Portuguese): The campaign for presidential in Cape Verde has begun

South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021

South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021, although some have called for delays due to COVID-19. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More

The Economist (October 2, 2021): South Africa’s main opposition sees coalitions ahead: Will a weakening ruling party team up with liberals or the thuggish far left?

Reuters (October 1, 2021): S.African president Ramaphosa eases COVID-19 restrictions to lowest level

Africanews/AFP (September 28, 2021): ‘We will do better’: South Africa’s ruling ANC launches manifesto before local elections

Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023 (and preceded by local elections in various states)

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that.

In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.

William Clowes, Bloomberg (October 1, 2021): Nigerian Opposition Hints It Wants Southerner as Next President

Anita Patrick and Stephanie Busari, CNN (October 1, 2021): Twitter says it is ‘continuing to engage’ with the Nigerian government as they discuss lifting ban

Chinedu Asadu, AP (September 30, 2021): Dozens killed and abducted in Nigeria’s north

Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021

Gambia is due to hold its first presidential election since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box. In a surprising election result, opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy.

In a shock move, Barrow announced an alliance with Jammeh ahead of December’s election. More

Isaac Kaledzi, DW (October 2, 2021): Gambia: The story of a Jammeh-era survivor

Sheriff Bojang Jr., World Politics Review (October 1, 2021): Barrow’s Alliance with Jammeh Deflates Gambians’ Hopes for Justice

Al Jazeera (September 30, 2021): The Gambia delays report on former longtime leader Jammeh

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)

Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.

On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.

Moses Rono, BBC (October 2, 2021): Mali’s plan for Russia mercenaries to replace French troops unsettles Sahel

Al Jazeera (September 29, 2021): Mali receives helicopters and weapons from Russia

David Rich, France24 (September 29, 2021): Mali junta’s sovereignty push arouses hope, fear amid troubled anti-jihadist struggle

RFI (September 28, 2021): France rejects Mali ‘abandonment’ claim, insists election timetable be respected

Roger Boyes, Times of London (September 28, 2021): Mercenaries tighten Putin’s grip in Africa

Jeff Seldin, Voice of America (September 28, 2021): Mali Seeking ‘Better Ways’ to Contain Terrorism

Reuters (September 28, 2021): Mali could delay post-coup elections, interim PM says

Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022

Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.

Dr Westen K Shilaho, The Conversation (September 28, 2021): Kenya’s next election is in view: the struggle between elites and rule of law is intensifying

Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)

Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.

Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays – the military has said it plans to rule the country for 18 months. More

Reuters (October 2, 2021): One policeman killed, at least ten civilians wounded in Chad opposition protest

Trevor Filseth, National Interest (September 28, 2021): Chad Interim Parliament Announced: Opposition Leaders Excluded

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)

Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2023. These will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. However, democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe.

Gibbs Dube, Voice of America (October 1, 2021): Zimbabwe Electoral Commission Says MDC Alliance Not Barred from Attending Stakeholders Meetings

AFP (October 1, 2021): 19 arrested at Zimbabwe pre-election protest

Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup

On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.

Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo is challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More

Marième Soumaré, The Africa Report (October 4, 2021): Army reform in Guinea: Will Mamady Doumbouya succeed where Alpha Condé failed?

BBC (October 1, 2021): Mamady Doumbouya: Guinea coup leader sworn in as president

Saliou Samb, Reuters (September 28, 2021): Guinea junta bars its members from running in next elections

Boubacar Diallo and Carley Petesch, AP (September 28, 2201): Guinea’s junta releases transition charter toward elections

Past Africa Elections

Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021, preceded by General Elections: June 21, 2021

Ethiopia held general elections on June 21, 2021, after several postponements. These elections took place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, previously a reformer (he even won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019) but most recently an authoritarian, won in a landslide. Polling couldn’t happen in several areas due to the ongoing conflict, so make-up votes took place on September 30, amid opposition boycotts. Nonetheless, Abiy already had enough seats to form a new government regardless of the results of the September elections.

AP (October 4, 2021): Ethiopian PM begins 2nd term saying war exacts ‘heavy price’

Bileh Jelan and Siyanne Mekonnen, Addis Standard (October 4, 2021): Analysis : As it reckons with multi-layered crises, Ethiopia forms new government in the absence of Tigray, incomplete electoral process

Bethlehem Feleke and Eliza Mackintosh, CNN (October 1, 2021): Ethiopia to expel UN officials amid fears of Tigray famine

AFP (September 30, 2021): Ethiopia to expel seven senior UN staff for ‘meddling’

France24 (September 30, 2021 – video): Ethiopia elections: Somali region holds vote after 3-month delay

Georja Calvin-Smith and Laura Di Blasio, France24 (September 29, 2021 – video): Opposition parties pull out of Ethiopia’s elections

Maria Gerth-Niculescu, DW (September 28, 2021): Ethiopia: War and optimism collide as Abiy Ahmed prepares to form a new government

Benin Presidential Election: April 11, 2021

Benin held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. Incumbent Patrice Talon won a second term after largely keeping the opposition off the ballot. Previously a model democracy in the region,  Benin has seen democratic decline since Talon’s election in 2016. More

Virgile Dénakpo, African Arguments (September 29, 2021): The jailed candidate: What Madougou’s case tells us about Benin

Regional Analysis

Chris Olaoluwa Ogunmodede, World Politics Review (September 30, 2021): ‘Stability’ Without Democratic Values Has Failed in West Africa

Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022

Nigeria: Local Elections in Nasarawa State: October 6, 2021

Nigeria: Local Elections in Plateau State: October 9, 2021

Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021

Somalia, Direct Local Elections in Puntland: October 25, 2021

South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021

Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021

Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021

Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021

Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2021

Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 8, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup – delays possible)

Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)

Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)

Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)

Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)

Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)

Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022

Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)

Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)

Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.