Upcoming Americas Elections
Dominica Legislative – December 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic 
Population: 74,027

Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.

CMC: “Dominicans go to the polls on December 6 to elect a new government after Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit Tuesday night announced that he had advised President Charles Savarin to dissolve the Parliament on Wednesday in preparation for the poll that was constitutionally due by March next year.”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019 (postponed)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Editorial Board, New York Times: “Haiti’s Ashes Decades of misrule have once again brought Haiti to the brink of collapse. Does anyone care?”

Past Americas Elections
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (most recently, Salta Province – November 10, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Financial Times: “Alberto Fernández’s victory set to shake up Argentine diplomacy: President-elect could adopt a radical foreign policy, realigning regional interests”

AFP/Buenos Aires Times: “What does Alberto Fernández’s election mean for the Lima Group? Seen as many Latin American neighbours as sympathetic to Venezuela’s government, Alberto Fernández’s rise to the presidency may require a shift in the group’s posture.”

Frank Jack Daniel, Reuters: “The prospect of a more united Latin American left grew on Monday [November 4] after the incoming president of Argentina and his Mexican counterpart discussed reviving a regional diplomatic alternative to the Washington-backed Organization of American States.”

Michael Soltys, Buenos Aires Times: “Two party dominance in Congress – but not enough to help Fernández: Senate under new government’s control but Macri’s comeback leaves Lower House hanging in the balance.”

Perfil (in Spanish): “Who is Gustavo Sáenz, the Peronist who went from Sergio Massa’s vice candidate to governor of Salta He was a councilor, provincial senator, mayor and will now succeed Juan Manuel Urtubey. He came to the elections without supporting the Front of All or Change.”

Updated November 11, 2019

Reuters: ‘Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez said on Sunday a ‘coup’ had been carried out against Bolivian leader Evo Morales, who announced his resignation earlier in the day under mounting pressure from anti-government protests and the military.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress.

Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered. However, on the bright side, Bogota elected its first female mayor.

Jackie Castillo and Max Ramsay, Philadelphia Tribune: “Meet Claudia López, the first woman to lead Colombia’s capital”

Victoria Stunt, Quartz: “Why Bogota’s election of its first female mayor matters for Colombia”

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Updated November 11, 2019 (rapidly-developing situation)

Reuters: “OAS Finds Irregularities in Disputed Bolivia Vote, Calls for New Elections”

Anatoly Kurmanaev, Mónica Machicao, Ernesto Londoño, New York Times: “Military Calls on President to Step Down After Election Dispute in Bolivia”

The Economist: “Bolivia in chaos after Evo Morales quits: Violence worsens after he claims to be the victim of a coup.”

Jack Guy, Kay Guerrero, Dakin Andone, CNN: “There’s a power vacuum in Bolivia after Evo Morales’ resignation. Here’s what you need to know”

Clifford Kraus and Daniel Victor, New York Times: “Evo Morales Urges Resistance to New Bolivian Government: The former president’s stance could complicate efforts to form a transitional administration and hold fresh elections.”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election was a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. During the campaign, photographs emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers. Ultimately, the Liberals won the most seats, but lost their majority, and formed a minority government.

Tyler Dawson, National Post (Canada): “‘What next’ for conservatives? Frustrated westerners meet to plan their future in Canada: The Conservatives’ inability in the recent election to break through in Ontario and Quebec, allowing the Liberals to secure a minority government was on the minds of those gathered.”

Althia Raj, Huffington Post: “How Justin Trudeau Didn’t Lose The 2019 Election: From scandals, spin and slams to a minority government.”

Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million

These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.

Reuters: “Guatemala’s next president to cut ties with Maduro’s Venezuela”

Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.

France24/AFP: “Freed from his jail cell, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told thousands of jubilant supporters Saturday that the left can take back Brazil’s presidency in the 2022 election.”

Reuters: “Lula leaves prison, firing up Brazil’s left and right – Brazil’s leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva left prison on Friday after a judge ordered his release, startling financial markets and reigniting both ends of the political spectrum with calls for demonstrations in coming days.”

The Year Ahead: Americas Elections
Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Uruguay presidential runoff (November 24); Dominica legislative (December 6); Peru snap legislative (January 26 – tentative); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25); Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)

Claudia López was elected Bogota’s first female mayor on October 27. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Toshlander (CC BY-SA 4.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

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Upcoming Asia Elections
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.

Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.

Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

Times of India: “Sri Lanka’s ruling party presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa has asked the main opposition leaderMahinda Rajapaksa not to fuel communal hatred over his plans for the devolution of power to the Tamil minority. His comment came after Rajapaksa accused Premadasa of diluting the unitary character of the state by his plans for devolution.”

Marwaan Macan-Markar, Nikkei Asian Review: “Sri Lanka presidential candidate eyes youth to beat pro-China rival: As campaigning enters the final stretch in Sri Lanka’s Nov. 16 presidential polls, Sajith Premadasa, the leading political moderate in the fray, is staking his hopes for victory on the country’s first-time voters.”

Meera Srinivasan, The Hindu: “In Presidential election, local is the national in Sri Lanka’s east: Voters are viewing the poll under two lenses — their suffering during the civil war years and soon after, and the local, communal contradiction.”

Mohammed Shihab, The Diplomat: “Sri Lanka’s Next President Will Inherit a Diplomatic Balancing Act: The country is situated at a geostrategic crossroads in close proximity to one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Consequently, Sri Lanka has found itself in the middle of a competition between Indian and Chinese influence.”

Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.

Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.

Zainal Epi, Malay Mail: “A year after winning Tanjung Piai, Pakatan Harapan (PH) is in real jeopardy of losing the Johor parliamentary seat in just six days. Engaging in a verbal war aside, PH campaigners have not had much success in getting voters on their side but instead have been dealt hard blows by Barisan Nasional, now the Opposition.”

May Taylor, The Thaiger: “The Malaysian PM, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has confirmed publicly that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, president of the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (People’s Justice Party) will be his successor. The 94 year old PM was speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald in Bangkok yesterday, where he has been attending the ASEAN summit. Dr Mahatir confirmed he will stand down before the next general election, despite some calls for him to remain until the end of the current government’s mandate.”

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million

A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Mary Hui, Quartz: “Candidates in Hong Kong’s elections are getting knifed, beaten, and now bitten: Every week, more names join the list of pro-democracy candidates in Hong Kong’s upcoming local elections who have been assaulted.”

Iain Marlow and Natalie Leung, Bloomberg: “Hong Kong Stabbing in Broad Daylight Raises Election Safety Questions”

A student from mainland China arrested at a Hong Kong democracy protest is sentenced to 6 weeks in prison for possession of an offensive weapon – the city's first such case involving a mainlander in almost 5 months of unrest. https://t.co/o2O87jyU3i

— Rappler (@rapplerdotcom) November 8, 2019

Gary Cheung and Kimmy Chung, South China Morning Post: “Will Hong Kong’s district council elections be postponed? Officials watching if protest violence persists, but decision might be pushed to polling day on November 24.”

Updated November 10, 2019

Joanne Chiu, Wall Street Journal: “Hong Kong Arrests Pro-Democracy Lawmakers Ahead of Local Elections: Some lawmakers accuse authorities of trying to create fear and chaos to postpone the poll, as antigovernment protests stretch on.”

Jessie Pang and Joyce Zhou, Reuters: “Police fired tear gas and water cannon to break up rallies as activists blocked roads and trashed shopping malls across Hong Kong’s New Territories and Kowloon peninsula on Sunday during the 24th straight weekend of anti-government unrest.”

Kiribati Parliamentary – December 2019 and Presidential – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 109,367

During the last parliamentary election, held in December 2015 with a runoff in January 2016, the Boutokan te Koaua Party (BTK), whose name means Pillars of Truth, won 26 seats and two parties that merged to form the Tobwaan Kiribati Party (TBK), Embrace Kiribati, won 19 seats. A full 22 out of the 44 seats were won by new representatives, with some prominent incumbents – including ministers and a former president – losing their seats.

For the presidential elections, parliament chooses three or four candidates, and then a nationwide popular vote decides the winner. During the presidential election, Taaneti Mamau, nominated by TBK and the only opposition candidate, won. Neither party had a formal manifesto for the last elections, but the major issues were climate change and economic development.

RNZ (New Zealand): “Kiribati opposition MP calls for president to step down: An opposition MP in Kiribati is calling for the president to step down after the government lost its majority for the first time in three years.”

Dateline Pacific/RNZ: “A new Kiribati opposition party says the government is too close to China and its time is up. The Kiribati Moa, or Kiribati First Party, has helped win the opposition a majority in parliament for the first time in three years. It’s seeking High Court backing for a motion of no confidence against the president, and to call fresh elections.”

The Economist: “Why politics in the south Pacific are so precarious: Promises of corrugated iron roofs are more important than party affiliations.”

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.

The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is attempting to influence the upcoming elections as well.

Joshua Kurlantzick, CFR: “How China Is Interfering in Taiwan’s Election: Beijing is spreading disinformation to influence Taiwan’s election in January, but that doesn’t necessarily mean President Tsai Ing-wen will get voted out.”

Richard McGregor, Bloomberg: “China Is Sabotaging Itself in Taiwan: The logic of politics in the Xi Jinping era makes a softer line untenable, even if it’s having the opposite of the desired effect.”

Sarah Zheng, South China Morning Post: “As Taiwan’s 2020 presidential race approaches, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party will be counting on the support of one of its most loyal constituencies – the Taiwanese business community living and working on the mainland. But some analysts believe their influence is a diminishing force in the self-ruled island’s politics.”

Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher, Reuters: “Beijing could resort to military conflict with self-ruled Taiwan to divert domestic pressure if a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy amid trade war threatens the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party, the island’s foreign minister has said.”

Updated November 11, 2019

AP: “The pro-China opposition candidate in Taiwan’s presidential election set for early next year has chosen a former Google executive as his running mate. Chang San-cheng, a political independent, on Monday joined the ticket of Nationalist Party candidate Han Kuo-yu, who lags behind Democratic Progressive Party incumbent Tsai Ing-wen in most polls.”

Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 3.1 million

Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.

Aubrey Menarndt, Washington Post’s Money Cage: “In Mongolia, proposed legislation endangers civil society”

New Zealand Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million

New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.

Praveen Menon, Reuters: “The former Chief Executive of Air New Zealand and one of the nation’s most prominent businessman, Christopher Luxon, will join the opposition National Party as a candidate in next year’s general election.”

Henry Cooke, Stuff (New Zealand): “Sustainable NZ party launches, promising to be a ‘full-time environmental party’”

Bryce Edwards, The Guardian: “Jacinda Ardern has a major problem with minor parties, and it could seal her fate: With micro-parties poised to steal votes from the PM’s coalition partners, it could sink them all in 2020 election.”

Dileepa Fonseka, Newsroom (New Zealand): “Local election overhaul may follow recounts and coin tosses: After one recount appeal kept Wellington waiting and another led to a controversial outcome, the Government is investigating if the law needs to be overhauled.”

Burma/Myanmar Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million

Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the  country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.

Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.

Htet Naing Zaw, The Irrawaddy: “NLD Vice Chairman’s Poor Health Threatens Party’s Prospects in Myanmar’s 2020 Election”

Lev Puri, Frontline (India): “As Myanmar gets set for the 2020 general election, peaceful and inclusive democracy remains a far cry: in fact Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has reinforced the military outlook on critical issues.”

University of Sydney: “Fake news, hate speech on social media impacting Myanmar’s youth: A report led by the University of Sydney and Save the Children, launched in London, shows social media may be undermining democracy, revealing the extent to which youth are vulnerable to abuse, hate speech and fake news.”

Flemming Splidsboel Hansen and Adam Moe Fejerskov, Scientific Nordic: “Disinformation goes South: In the Global South, social media monopolies and a surge in digital media users allow information operations to reach millions and affect political elections and developments. The consequences can be fatal, as seen in Myanmar.”

UCAN/Eurasia Review: “A Myanmar court has granted bail to a senior Buddhist monk facing defamation charges for allegedly calling the country’s military thieves and robbers in an interview with a local news and entertainment website.”

Nan Lwin, The Irrawaddy: “China is rebranding and repackaging dormant or delayed projects in Myanmar under the banner of its Belt and Road Initiative, many of whose projects lack transparency and consultation with affected communities, according to the latest policy brief by a Netherlands-based research and advocacy institute.”

Past Asia Elections
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million

In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.

Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.

Endy M. Bayuni, Jakarta Post: “Less polarized Indonesia offers some respite for democracy….The decision for the two political rivals to work together after the election, albeit not as equals but more like a boss and an assistant, has had an unintended consequence: It ended popular polarization as we know it. At least for now.”

Indonesian president Joko Widodo (right) and former rival Prabowo Subianto (left) have called a truce, potentially lessening Indonesia’s political polarization. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Government of Indonesia (public domain)

The Year Ahead: Asia Elections
Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); Sri Lanka presidential (November 16); Hong Kong local (November 24); Kiribati legislative (December); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); Maldives local (April); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11 – delay to 2023 possible); Mongolia parliamentary (June)

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Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Halina Abakunchyk, Belsat: “Authorities return to worst campaign practices, human rights defender says”

Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million

Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).

Trend (Azerbaijan): “Eleven political parties have applied to Azerbaijan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) to participate in the upcoming municipal elections in the country, CEC Chairman Mazahir Panahov said at the commission’s meeting, Trend reports Nov. 5.”

Thomas de Waal, Carnegie Europe: “Is Change Afoot in Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan has long been an island of unchanging continuity, but a generational overhaul is underway. With mounting expectations and a resurgent opposition, 2020 will be a testing year for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.”

Durna Safarova, Eurasianet: “Azerbaijani police blame the victim: If you believe the Azerbaijani authorities, opposition figures in the country have an uncanny knack for injuring themselves.”

RFE/RL: Prominent Azerbaijani Rights Activist In Coma After ‘Traffic Accident’”

Bahruz Samadov, OC Media: “Recent protests in Azerbaijan suggest that, after a long period of stagnation, the nature of protest is changing. However, for a radical transformation of the political landscape to take place, the country’s traditional opposition parties need to reach out and appeal to the more progressive youth movements.”

Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local – December 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.

The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.

Stratfor: “Uzbekistan Comes in From the Cold”

Tajikistan Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic 
Population: 8.6 million

Tajikistan is an authoritarian state with no free or fair elections, no genuine, credible opposition operating inside the country, and almost no independent media. The People’s Democratic Party of President Emomali Rahmon (who has been in power since 1994) won most of the seats in the Assembly of Representatives in the 2015 elections, which were surrounded by the arrest and torture of opposition figures and a smear campaign of the opposition by state-controlled media. The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) – the only actual opposition party to be represented in parliament – lost both its seats, and was banned shortly after the elections.

Emomali’s 31-year-old son Rustam Emomali has been installed as mayor of the capital, Dushanbe, and is possibly being positioned to run for the presidency next year. During the 2013 elections, the opposition united behind the secular candidate Oinihol Bobonazarova, but she withdrew from the race after being unable to collect the required signatures, probably due to the fact that her campaign volunteers were being arrested while they collected signatures.

Matthew Luxmoore, RFE/RL: “Its Media Muzzled, Tajikistan Prepares To Extend Ruling Family’s Grip On Power….Ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections next year, critics say the government of Rahmon — widely expected to either extend his limitless tenure or orchestrate a leadership transition to 31-year-old son Rustam — has launched a clampdown against any remaining media outlets outside its control.”

Ukraine Elections in Donbas – Proposed (TBD)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a plan to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the east, where Russian-backed separatists currently control territory, and hold elections. It is a very controversial plan and was met with protests.

Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate during Ukraine’s presidential and legislative elections earlier this year centered on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Fabrice Deprez, PRI: “Ukraine remains split over how to achieve peace in contested Donbas region”

.@JBugajskiUSA explores why the fight for Ukraine is about more than just Ukraine. It's about imperial Russia and the future of the Alliance. https://t.co/6Ah4OSeCfW pic.twitter.com/OkaBReef6K

— CEPA (@cepa) November 7, 2019

Steven Pifer, Brookings Institution’s Order from Chaos: “Five months into Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s term, there are reasons for optimism and caution”

Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Local Second Round – November 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

RFE/RL: “A candidate from the pro-Russian Moldovan Socialist Party (PSRM) has for the first time in the country’s post-Soviet history been elected as mayor of the country’s capital, official preliminary results indicate. On November 3, Ion Ceban took 52 percent of the vote, followed by Andrei Nastase of the pro-European ACUM bloc, who received nearly 48 percent.”

Christina Petru, Emerging Europe: “With Ceban’s election in Chișinău, is a ‘Dodonarchy’ nigh?”

Reuters: “Moldovan president says coalition government may collapse”

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million

Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.

RFE/RL: “Trial Of Four Kazakh Activists Charged With Supporting Banned Opposition Movement Adjourned”

Darkhan Umirbekov, Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan: Confidence low in government trust-building exercise: Over the past two decades, the president’s office has instituted at least six ad hoc commissions to defuse some kind of political impasse. The latest is not off to an auspicious start.”

Catherine Putz, The Diplomat: “Kazakhstan Sinks in Freedom of the Net 2019 Report: Kazakhstan’s drop marked one of the largest declines over last year’s report, following a year of disruptions and arrests.”

The Year Ahead: Eurasia Elections
Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary and local (December 22); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)

Ion Ceban, a pro-Russia socialist, won the runoff to become mayor of Chisinau, Moldova’s capital. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Accent TV (CC BY 3.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

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Upcoming Europe Elections
Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Carlos E. Cué, El País: “As election campaign begins, parties seek to win over center and combat apathy: Spaniards will be going to the polls for the fourth time in four years on November 10, but there are already indications that many will be inclined to not vote this time around.”

Belén Carreño and Ingrid Melander, Reuters: “The main candidates to become Spain’s next prime minister clashed on Monday over how to handle Catalan separatism, as they tried to woo voters ahead of a repeat election that opinion polls show could be as inconclusive as the one in April.”

El País: “Spain’s new election will not break deadlock, poll shows: A recent survey has the Socialist Party winning 121 seats, two fewer than in April, while right-of-center parties stand to benefit collectively from the new vote.”

DW: “Spain: Far-right party Vox surges in polls ahead of election: Support for the center-left Socialists has remained steady, but upstart party Vox became the first far-right grouping in the Spanish parliament since the country returned to democracy after the Franco dictatorship.”

Mara Morecai, Pew Research Center: “5 facts about public opinion in Spain as its election nears: Most Spaniards have confidence in voting, less in the state and politicians.”

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Irina Vilcu and Andra Timu, Bloomberg: “Here’s Why Romanian Politics Are Blowing Up Yet Again”

Valerie Hopkins and Mehreen Khan, Financial Times: “Romania’s search for stability: Former National Liberal party leader Klaus Iohannis looks set to emerge victorious in Sunday’s presidential elections.”

Sandrine Ameil, Euronews: “Romania PM Ludovic Orban survives confidence vote”

Craig Turp, Emerging Europe: “In the first round of Romania’s presidential election, second place is what really matters”

Romanians head to the polls on Sunday to choose a president — but there's more at stake than that https://t.co/RyOi2TPKrd

— POLITICO Europe (@POLITICOEurope) November 9, 2019

United Kingdom Snap Parliamentary – December 12, 2019 and Local (including Mayor of London) – May 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

A snap general election has been called for December 12, 2019.

Jim Pickard, Financial Times: “Three pro-EU parties set to unveil Remain pact for UK election – Deal between Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru could affect races in dozens of seats.”

Jack Power, Irish Times: “The youth wing of Fine Gael has written to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar calling for the party to stand candidates in the upcoming general election in Northern Ireland, and to take seats in Westminster if elected.”

The Economist: “How Britain’s pollsters have changed their methods: They were wrong in 2015 and 2017, and about the Brexit vote. Will new techniques help in 2019?”

Slovakia Parliamentary – February 29, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million

Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.

AFP: “Slovakia will hold an election in February, the speaker of parliament said Monday, with opinion polls suggesting the governing Smer-SD party will win despite plummeting support since the murder of a journalist. The vote will take place on February 29, only days after the second anniversary of the killing of an investigative journalist, which triggered a political crisis and raised concerns about corruption in the EU member state.”

Reuters: “Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova on Wednesday vetoed a new law extending a ban on publishing opinion polls up to 50 days before elections and vowed to challenge it at the Constitutional Court if the parliament overturns her veto.”

My thoughts today are with #JanKuciak & #DaphneCaruanaGalizia & all journalists whose lives are threatened for seeking and exposing the truth. We will never accept impunity for crimes against journalists. We will never stop defending freedom of press in Europe & in the world. pic.twitter.com/oToKuPC39g

— Manfred Weber (@ManfredWeber) November 2, 2019

Updated November 7

Reuters: “Slovakia’s parliament deputy speaker resigned on Thursday over contacts with a businessman charged with ordering the murder of a journalist last year that sparked mass protests which ousted then Prime Minister Robert Fico.”

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

France’s 2017 presidential election saw the collapse of the two political parties that had historically dominated French politics – François Hollande’s Socialists and Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republicans (formerly the Union for a Popular Movement – UMP). Neither party’s candidate made it to the final round. Instead, right-wing populist Marine Le Pen from the Front National (now called National Rally) lost to centrist Emmanuel Macron, whose newly-formed La République en Marche! (LREM) pulled together a combination of figures from the right and the left. In the legislative elections soon after, LREM won a majority.

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). During the 2014 municipal elections, the Socialists took heavy losses, and the center-right made big gains, with the far-right also making some gains, winning control of 11 towns. However, the Socialists held onto Paris in a close election – Anne Hidalgo beat UMP’s Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet in the second round to become Paris’s first female mayor (Kosciusko-Morizet had won more votes in the first round). Hidalgo is expected to run for another term.

Pierre Maurer, Le Figaro (in French): “In Paris, Rachida Dati will lead the LR list: Unsurprisingly, the Republicans have Wednesday night nominated the mayor of the 7th district to head their list for the 2020 municipal elections.”

Angelique Chrisafis, The Guardian: “Marine Le Pen allies on trial for alleged fraud during 2012 election: Senior party figures accused of profiting from the state by overcharging for election kits”

Serbia Parliamentary – Due By April 2020 and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

Serbia’s last snap parliamentary elections, in April 2016, resulted in a renewed majority for Prime Minister Alexander Vucic’s nationalist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia.

Radomir Ralev, SeeNews: “Serbia should hold regular parliamentary and local elections in the period between March 22 and April 5 next year, President Aleksandar Vucic has said.”

Reuters: “Serbia’s opposition protest at state TV studios, forcing president to use side door”

North Macedonia Snap Parliamentary – April 12, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.1 million

In June 2018, Greece and North Macedonia signed the historic Prespa Agreement, by which Macedonia would change its name to North Macedonia in exchange for Greece supporting the country’s membership in NATO and the EU, ending a dispute over the country’s name since its independence from Yugoslavia in 1991 (Greece said that using the name “Macedonia” implied irredentist claims over parts of Greece).

New York Times correspondent Alexsander Dimishkovski notes: “Macedonia, a small, landlocked Balkan country of two million, transformed from a fragile but promising democracy to an authoritarian state under Nikola Gruevski, who was prime minister from 2006 to 2016. During the period, the country witnessed a degradation in the rights of the news media, a heavily biased judiciary system, rampant corruption and abuses of power.”

RFE/RL: “The new U.S. special envoy to the Western Balkans, Matthew Palmer, has criticized the European Union for delaying the start of membership talks with North Macedonia and Albania, calling it a ‘historic mistake’ that sends ‘a bad message’ to the region.”

Guy Delauney, BBC: “The French veto did not exactly leave North Macedonia’s leader lying on the ground in a crumpled heap, but it did make a mockery of his assertion that changing the country’s name would open the door to accession. For 27 years, Greece had rejected the name Macedonia because of its region of the same name. The dispute came to an end only in January after a hard-won agreement and a series of difficult votes.

Jasmin Mujanović and Molly Montgomery, Foreign Policy: “Macron’s Veto Leaves Balkans Wide Open for Russia and China”

Poland Presidential – May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. In the 2019 parliametnary polls, Law and Justice held its majority in the Sejm (lower house), but lost its majority in the Senate (upper house). The Sejm is more powerful, but the lack of a majority in the Senate could derail some of PiS’s plans. The country is highly polarized.

DW: “Tusk: Too much ‘baggage’ for Polish presidential run: Outgoing European Council President Donald Tusk says he will not run for president of his native Poland in 2020. The decision leaves it unclear who will run against right-wing incumbent Andrzej Duda in the spring.”

Slovenia Parliamentary – Due by June 5, 2022
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.1 million

Marja Novak, Reuters: “Slovenia’s center-left minority government on Wednesday lost the support of the opposition Left party, in a move that analysts said could eventually lead to an election before 2022.”

Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Local Runoffs – November 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – both fielded female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is ran for another term, and the Socialists endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.

Martin Dimitrov, Balkan Insight: “Bulgaria Ruling Party Retakes Capital in Local Elections: In a respectable result, the ruling GERB party won 15 out of 28 mayoral seats in regional cities as well as the capital on Sunday – registering only modest losses compared to the last local elections in 2015.”

Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.

Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.

However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.

In Thuringia, the far-left Left Party won first place, and AfD – whose leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party – placed second. The majority of the vote went to non-mainstream parties. Some CDU figures in Thuringia floated the idea of forming a coalition with AfD, but central party leadership categorically rejected the idea.

Reuters: “A group of eastern German conservatives have caused outrage within Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and among Jewish groups by demanding the party hold talks with the far right in the eastern state of Thuringia….Several senior members in the national CDU condemned the initiative in Thuringia, with General-Secretary Paul Ziemiak calling it ‘mad.’ He said nothing had changed in the CDU’s stance toward the AfD, and anyone who thought differently should ask themselves if they were in the right party.”

Dan Hough, Washington Post: “The German far-right AfD did well in a regional election. Don’t jump to any dramatic conclusions. Here are three reasons to stay calm.”

Chase Winter, DW: “Germany: Frauke Petry’s Blue Party dissolves after election routs: The former head of the far-right AfD, Frauke Petry, has announced her Blue Party will dissolve. The new party failed to capture conservative and right-wing votes in two state elections.”

Reuters: “German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her coalition partners said on Wednesday they would keep working together after welcoming a report which they said showed how much the government had achieved but also how much it still had to do.”

Updated November 7, 2019

Rebecca Staudenmaier, DW: “Germans divided on unity legacy 30 years after fall of Berlin Wall: Fewer eastern Germans feel reunification has been beneficial than was the case ten years ago, a new survey has found. A majority of Germans agreed, however, that travel opportunities and freedom of speech are better now.”

Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million

The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.

Maura Reilly, Ms.: “Last month’s elections in Switzerland culminated in many historic outcomes, including the highest turnover of seats (58)—with the People’s Party losing 12, the Green Party adding 17 and women seizing 20 more in the House of Representatives.”

Clive H. Church, London School of Economics’ EUROPP: “Much greener than expected: Key takeaways from the 2019 Swiss federal elections”

World Politics Review: “After an Electoral ‘Tsunami,’ What’s Ahead for Switzerland’s Greens?”

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.

Judith Prescott, Euronews (video): “The new mayor of Budapest – Gergely Karacsony talks about the changes in Hungary’s political scene”

World Politics Review: “In Local Elections, Hungary’s Opposition Punctures Orban’s Air of Invincibility”

Umut Korkut, The Independent: “Gergely Karácsony’s victory in Budapest echoes that of Ekrem Imamoğlu in Istanbul, and the earlier win in Warsaw by Rafal Trzaskowski. Simply put, opposition platforms can displace neo-authoritarian parties in major cities. “

Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “The mayor of western Hungary’s largest city, who was re-elected despite the publication of a video showing him participating in an orgy on a luxury yacht, has resigned less than a month after winning a fourth term.”

Tim Gosling, Foreign Policy: “Europe’s Populist Governments Have a Problem: Their Capitals – City-level opposition could be the key to defeating populism in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and beyond.”

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo held snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

The left-wing nationalist Vetëvendosje (VV) won the most seats in this year’s elections, but did not secure a majority. VV is currently in negotiations with the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) to form a government, which they promise to do in November. If the two parties successfully form a government, it will be the first time power has transferred fully to opposition parties following an election.

Gazeta Express: “New Government of Kosovo likely in November, Hoti says: Avdullah Hoti, coordinator of the working group of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) says negotiations with Vetevendosje on forming new Government will be concluded soon.”

United Nations: “Elections held earlier this month in Kosovo represent ‘the most significant change in the political landscape’ there in a dozen years, the UN mission chief told the Security Council on Thursday [October 31].”

Sean Nottoli, International Republican Institute’s Democracy Speaks: “A Young Politician Calls for Kosovo’s Youth to Stay and Make a Difference”

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.

ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.

Bastian De Monte, The New Federalist: “One month after the snap elections, the formation of a new government in Austria is not within sight. Election winner Sebastian Kurz (EPP) can choose between his old partner, the nationalist Freedom Party (Identity & Democracy), or a yet untested coalition with the Greens. How it all began, where we stand, and what it might mean for Europe…”

Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 11.6 million

EU Observer: “Former Belgian prime minister and future EU Council president, Charles Michel, urged the two largest Belgian parties, the Flemish nationalist NVA and the Francophone socialist PS to take their responsibility and start government talks. The fact that they are not talking since the elections of 26 May is ‘a from of weakness, if not cowardliness,’ he said.”

Country
Text

The Month Ahead: Europe Elections
Romania presidential (November 10); Spain snap parliamentary (November 10 – not officially called, but highly likely); 

The Berlin Wall in 1988. November 9, 2019 marks the thirtieth anniversary of its fall. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Roland Arhelger (CC BY-SA 4.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

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Upcoming Middle East Elections
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.

The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.

Reuters: “Five candidates will run in Algeria’s presidential election next month, including two former prime ministers, the head of the election authority said on Saturday [November 2], amid mass protests rejecting the vote.”

Mourad Kamel, The Africa Report: “Algerian political leaders and parties are divided whether to support the forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for 12 December, or to boycott them altogether.”

Lamine Chikhi, Reuters: “Riad Mostefai has marched through the capital of Algeria every Friday since February to demand a purge of the ruling hierarchy, an end to corruption and the army’s withdrawal from politics. Though some of his demands have been met, Mostefai plans to keep on marching each week along with tens of thousands of others who don’t believe an election in December will change anything, as long as an opaque ruling elite remains in charge.”

Amel Boubekeur, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Listen to the street: The new Algerian transition….In the absence of concrete proposals from the army, and with the collapse of the institutions of the state, the Hirak has become the only forum for discussing the nature of change in Algeria. It is now the driving force in the country’s political life.”

AP: “Judges, prosecutors and lawyers have staged an unusual protest at Algeria’s Supreme Court to demand more judicial independence, amid resurgent tensions in the country’s 9-month-old political crisis.”

Egypt Local – Early 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 99.4 million

Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition. 

Hossam Rabie, Al-Monitor: “Egypt plans to reinstate municipal oversight councils….Parliament Speaker Ali Abdel Aal said Oct. 1 during the first meeting of the fifth parliament session that substantial reforms will be carried out and local council elections will be held, the first since 2008. Mohammed Salah Abu Hamila, a member of parliament’s Local Administration Committee, told Al-Monitor parliament will discuss the local administration bill within the next 60 days, and once the bill is adopted, local council elections will be scheduled, probably in early 2020.”

Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post: “Egypt expands its crackdown to target foreigners, journalists and even children”

Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Population: 83 million

Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.

Iran also has several exile opposition groups that seek regime change. Most prominently, the controversial MEK, a secretive group, operates out of a compound in Albania and is sometimes called a cult with a bizarre pastiche of Marxist and Islamist ideas, but nevertheless has ties with numerous high-level American and European officials. Exiled monarchists want to restore the Shah, who was removed in the 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power.

RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Less than four months before Iran’s Parliamentary elections, the government appears to be more concerned about suspicious funds in electioneering rather than a legitimacy crisis as a result of low turnout.”

RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Iran Hardliners Try Appeasement Ahead Of Elections, As Protests Rage In Region”

Alex Vatanka, Foreign Policy: “This is not the first time that Rouhani has attacked Khamenei’s powers, but he has a habit of becoming concerned about the legitimacy of the regime only at election time, which are highly regulated events in Iran. The country is due to hold parliamentary elections in early 2020, and a boycott by the voters is both a possibility and would be a huge embarrassment to the regime.”

Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020 (snap parliamentary possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million

Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS). Snap parliamentary elections possible following widespread protests calling for the resignation of the government and new polls.

Iraq's democracy isn't functioning very well, as you may have noticed, but what are some of the specific problems? Here's @UticaRisk, very specific: https://t.co/xBXnGnOD8t

— Aron Lund (@aronlund) November 1, 2019

Hamdi Alkhshali and Sharif Paget, CNN: “One of Iraq’s leading Shiite clerics and powerful politicians has called on other parties to back him in removing Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi after weeks of protests. Muqtada al-Sadr, who leads the largest political block in parliament, invited Iraq’s second largest party on Tuesday [October 29] to cooperate with him in ‘immediately’ holding a vote of no confidence in Mahdi.”

Mustafa Salim and Erin Cunningham, Washington Post: “Iraq’s president pledged Thursday [October 31] that his office would draft a new electoral law and overhaul the country’s election commission — moves aimed at mollifying anti-government demonstrators clamoring for sweeping changes to the political order.”

The latest WarCast – our members only podcast – features @RashaAlAqeedi breaking down the protests in Iraqhttps://t.co/McBP6h11t6

— War on the Rocks (@WarOnTheRocks) November 2, 2019

Samir Sumaidaie (former Iraqi ambassador to the U.S.), Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “The Iraqi government, as it is constituted now and despite all past and present promises and claims to the contrary, does not have the political will or the capacity to deliver good governance. That is why the first demand of the protesters is for the government to step aside and be replaced—hopefully peacefully by constitutional steps—by an emergency administration that is mandated to reform the system and start building a state that will function without corruption and foreign influence and deliver for its people.

Chloe Cornish, Financial Times: “In Lebanon and Iraq, protesters have been out in force and the scalps they have claimed are significant…But for many involved in the protests, merely bringing down the governments of the day is not enough. They want to topple the systems that put them there.”

Palestinian Authority Legislative – Long Overdue (date could be set soon)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank) 
Population: West Bank – 2.8 million; 1.8 million (Gaza)

Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.

Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor: “Many questions surround possible Palestinian elections: President Mahmoud Abbas’ high-profile announcement that elections will be held in all the Palestinian territories has spurred conflicting opinions on whether his Fatah party will unwaveringly stick with Abbas as its sole candidate, and whether Abbas really intends to hold elections at all.”

Yousef Alhelou, TRT World: “How close are we to another Palestinian election? Rival Palestinian factions are meeting in attempt to facilitate long-overdue elections in Palestinian territories, but ordinary Palestinians view it with scepticism.”

Qatar Consultative Assembly (proposed)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free  
Government Type: Absolute Monarchy 
Population: 2.4 million

Qatar remains an absolute monarchy, and the Majlis al-Shura (legislature) operates in an advisory capacity, with no actual legislative power, which is why Qatar’s elections aren’t on our big map or calendar.

Reuters: “Qatar’s ruling emir has ordered that a committee be established to organize the first ever elections to the Shura Council that advises the government of the wealthy Gulf state, state news agency QNA reported.”

Simone Foxman and Abbas Al Lawati, Bloomberg: “Qatar Prepares for Legislative Elections After 15-Year Delay”

Past Middle East Elections
Tunisia Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019 and parliamentary elections were October 6, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.

The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process. Because Karoui remained in jail, he was unable to speak directly to voters for most of the campaign, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort. However, he was released a few days before the vote, and the two candidates did face off in a televised debate.

Amel al-Hilali, Al-Monitor: “Tunisia’s new low-profile president defies definition”

Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post: “In a world of crisis, Tunisia’s democracy marches on”

Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.

The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote, although the violence was less severe than had been feared. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts are not yet available. Final results expected in early November but could be delayed.

Anisa Shaheed, TOLO News: “Election Commission to Start Recounting Votes: The IEC said that the vote recount will start on Monday [November 4], but there is controversy over some votes recently deemed invalid by the biometrics company Dermalog.”

Stratfor: “Afghanistan: Presidential Election Results to Be Announced Nov. 14”

Andrew Watkins, War on the Rocks: “Afghanistan on the Edge: Elections, Elites, and Ethnic Tensions”

Emran Feroz, Foreign Policy: “Afghanistan’s Last Jew Gets Ready for the Taliban—Again: Zabulon Simentov has seen it all, and now, like all Afghans, he must embrace a future filled with uncertainty and violence.”

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.

September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government by October 25 (and if President Reuven Rivlin does not then give him an extension), either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.

David M. Halbfinger, New York Times: “With Israel in Limbo, Benny Gantz Vows to Seek a ‘Peace Within’ As he tries to form a government, the would-be prime minister has focused on healing divisions inside his country, even more than on building bridges with the outside world.”

Eetta Prince-Gibson, Foreign Policy: “Amid Political Chaos, a Chance for Israel’s Arab Minority: Seeking to form a government, Benny Gantz is meeting with the Arab Joint List. What does that mean for the political future of its constituency?”

Nissim Mashaal, Jerusalem Post: “While efforts to form a government are continuing, there is growing concern that the State of Israel is heading towards a third election campaign. A survey conducted by Prof. Yitzhak Katz for 103 fm shows that most Israelis blame Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the wind of elections blowing in the air.”

Michael Oren (former Israeli ambassador to the U.S.), The Atlantic: “The Coming Middle East Conflagration: Israel is bracing itself for war with Iranian proxies, as Tehran escalates its provocations. But what will the United States do if conflict comes?”

Turkey Local – March 31, 2019 (Istanbul mayoral re-run June 23, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 81.3 million

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.

Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections. The two biggest parties competing would likely be the conservative and increasingly populist and authoritarian AKP,  and center-left secularist CHP, which was founded by Atatürk himself. Other contenders will include the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), currently AKP’s junior coalition partner; and center-right İyi (Good) Party, which favors a return to a parliamentary system and courts conservative voters who oppose Erdogan.

In August 2019, the Turkish government removed three mayors from Kurdish-majority provinces. The mayors had won in landslides in the March local elections, and their removal – on accusations of terrorism – sparked fury among the opposition and among certain groups within AKP. Notably, Ahmet Davutoğlu, a former prime minister, and Abdullah Gül, a former president – both of AKP – criticized the move.

Karwan Faidhi Dri, Rudaw: “15 HDP mayors removed, dozens put behind bars since Turkish local elections in March: rights group: Fifteen democratically elected mayors from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) have been removed from their positions due to alleged links to Kurdish rebels in Turkey, according to a report by a local human rights monitor, while dozens more have faced arrest and detention.”

Reuters: “A lawmaker in Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party said on Wednesday he was leaving the party at the president’s request after criticizing its policies. Mustafa Yeneroglu, a rare critical voice within the party, is the first parliamentarian to resign from the AK Party since it secured a narrow majority with a nationalist movement in an election last year.”

David Gauthier-Villars, Wall Street Journal: “Turkish Leader’s Political Star Rebounds With Syria Invasion: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s sagging domestic fortunes are lifted by Turkey’s fight against a Kurdish militia in Syria, even as it is condemned abroad.”

Pakistan General – July 25, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free 
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 207.9 million

Following the turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats.

Asad Hashim, Al Jazeera: “Thousands gather for Pakistan anti-government march in Islamabad: Led by firebrand political leader, protesters rally demanding PM’s exit over rising inflation and alleged vote rigging.”

Shamil Shams, DW: “Protests against Pakistan’s Imran Khan: Right-wing vs. right-wing Thousands of Islamist protesters determined to topple Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government have gathered near Islamabad. They are being led by a cleric who is ready to storm into the capital if Khan doesn’t step down.”

AFP: “A Pakistani Islamist leader who led thousands of supporters into the capital and demanded Imran Khan’s resignation vowed to continue his protest Monday [November 4], after the prime minister ignored his 48-hour deadline. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a firebrand cleric who heads one of the country’s largest Islamist parties, has accused Khan of taking power last year with the help of the military, which has ruled Pakistan for roughly half its history.”

Lebanon Parliamentary – May 6, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6.1 million

Lebanon’s complex “confessional democracy” ensures representation for each of its religious denomination. Seats in parliament are allocated among the 18 religious groups, and the prime minister is always a Sunni Muslim, the president is always a Maronite Christian, and the speaker of the parliament is always a Shiite Muslim.

The country held long-delayed parliamentary elections in May 2018, and nine months later finally formed a government, giving Prime Minister Saad Hariri a third term. The Shiite party and militant group Hezbollah increased its seat share to 53 percent. Christian parties also gained seats, while Hariri’s Future Movement lost seats.

Corruption has been a long-standing problem. The Berlin-based NGO Transparency International, which ranks Lebanon 138 out of 180 countries on its Corruption Perception Index, notes: “Partly due to political instability, the country has not established the necessary integrity structures nor are there indications of a strong political will to fight corruption. Lebanon’s confessional power-sharing arrangements fuels patronage networks and clientelism, which undermines further the country’s governance system.”

An unprecedented protest movement has been raging since October 17, calling for new elections and a complete restructuring of the country’s political system.

Rebecca Collard, Time: “Lebanon’s Saad Hariri Has Resigned. But Protesters Still Aren’t Content.”

Joseph Krauss, AP: “Lebanese protesters went back to blocking roads and thousands packed into public squares on Thursday [October 31], insisting their revolution was far from over despite the resignation of the prime minister earlier this week.”

Beirut tonight. ??#LebanonProtests #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/4nZCrziXtQ

— Sara Assaf (@SaraAssaf) November 3, 2019

AFP: “Lebanese demonstrators hit the streets again on Tuesday evening [November 5] to demand a new government, facing off in some areas with security forces attempting to re-open blockaded roads. An unprecedented protest movement has gripped Lebanon since October 17, demanding an overhaul of a political class that has remained largely unchanged since the end of the country’s 1975-1990 civil war.”

Kareem Chehayeb and Abby Sewell, Foreign Policy: “Why Protesters in Lebanon Are Taking to the Streets: The protests combine political and economic grievances and could bring down the country’s sect-based political order.”

Protests in Lebanon are not all sound and fury. @Leila_MA tells “The Intelligence” how demonstrators are finding their “revolution crushes” on Instagram https://t.co/mgIATdpUk7

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 6, 2019

The Year Ahead: Middle East Elections
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – highly unlikely to happen given ongoing civil war); Algeria presidential (December 12); Iran parliamentary (February); Iraq provincial (April 20); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)

A 2013 counter-demonstration in Iraq supporting the government, in response to anti-government protests. Photo credit: Voice of America (public domain)

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