Eurasia

March 30, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The entrance to the city of Türkmenbaşy, Turkmenistan, a major port on the Caspian Sea. Turkmenistan held elections on March 26 that were neither free nor fair. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Peretz Partensky (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Uzbekistan is holding a referendum on April 30 to change the constitution to allow President Shavkat Mirziyoev to remain in office until 2040. 

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest (although forced labor is reportedly still going on) and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. As a result, the “no” campaign in the referendum is basically nonexistent.

RFE/RL (March 29, 2023): Curb Your Enthusiasm! Uzbekistan’s Campaign To Extend Mirziyoev’s Reign Goes Into Overdrive

Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due – snap elections possible)

The United National Movement (UNM), Georgia’s pro-West opposition, held a leadership election in January following a bitter campaign that has left it divided heading into parliamentary elections due in 2024 (Georgia transitioned to a parliamentary system starting in 2012, so these elections will determine who runs the government). 

The current government is led by Georgian Dream, a coalition founded by eccentric and Kremlin-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. It came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM. The opposition has been calling for new elections since October 2020’s parliamentary polls, due to claims of fraud. International observers noted significant flaws in the elections, and observed that there were issues with public confidence in the polls.

The most recent vote Georgia, the October 2021 local elections, took place in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote. 

Despite Ivanishvili’s Kremlin ties, Georgian Dream has continued some of Georgia’s steps toward Euro-Atlantic integration, including applying for EU membership. This is because public opinion in Georgia overwhelmingly supports those things. However, it is unclear whether Georgian Dream has a genuine commitment to a Euro-Atlantic course, given its leaders’ ties to Russia. And some say that Saakashvili’s ongoing rough treatment and imprisonment are occurring on Russia’s orders.

Natia Seskuria, Foreign Policy (March 30, 2023): Georgia’s Protesters Won the Battle but Not the War: The government backed down, much to Russia’s chagrin, but it could reintroduce a reviled law

Eurasianet (March 27, 2023): Russian concern over protests in Georgia: Russian officials and propagandists had several reactions to the recent crisis in Georgia: gloating, echoing the Georgian government’s rhetoric, and casually threatening to bomb Tbilisi into the ground

Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024

Russia is not a democracy and elections are neither free nor fair. That said, public opinion is not entirely irrelevant to the political calculus, and Vladimir Putin technically faces voters in 2024. As a result, his regime has become increasingly oppressive at home and aggressive abroad.

IFEX notes: “In 2022, Russia saw more than 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for anti-war speech; more than 200,000 internet resources blocked; and 11 sentences in cases of state treason.”

Allison Quinn, Daily Beast (March 29, 2023): Whispers of Russian Shadow Army Boss Replacing Putin Draw a Response

Belarus Presidential Election: August 2025 (due)

Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation (March 29, 2023): A Closer Look at Belarus’s New Political Party and Its Leader

Voice of America (March 27, 2023): VOA Interview: Belarus Opposition Chief on Ukraine, Holding Lukashenko Accountable

RFE/RL (March 25, 2023): Defiant Belarusian Opposition Marks Freedom Day As Western Leaders Vow Continued Support

AP (March 24, 2023): U.S. sanctions Belarus election officials, President Lukashenko’s plane

Past Eurasia Elections

Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 26, 2023

Turkmenistan – a highly repressive state that has never held free or fair elections and lacks a genuine political opposition – held a presidential election on March 12, 2022, nearly two yers early. The reason appears to be to cement dynastic succession, as the son of current president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, ran and won in a landslide. Similarly, the ruling party won the 2023 parliamentary elections as well.

AFP (March 26, 2023): Turkmenistan parliament polls close after controlled vote

Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023

In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes. 

The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform. 

Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Georgi Gotev, Euractiv (March 30, 2023): Kazakh PM Smailov keeps job after snap elections

RFE/RL (March 27, 2023): As Expected, Kazakhstan’s Ruling Party Takes Majority Of Seats In Parliamentary Vote

Paolo Sorbello, The Diplomat (March 27, 2023): Hopes for Renewal Disappointed Again in Kazakhstan: Political manipulations stripped the people of the choice they were promised in Kazakhstan’s latest parliamentary election

RFE/RL (March 26, 2023): Kazakh Journalist Who Rejected Election Results Launches Hunger Strike In Jail

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023

Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Europe

March 29, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Casa de la Vall, which used to house Andorra’s parliament. Andorra holds elections on Sunday, April 2, along with several other European countries. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Maria Rosa Ferre (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Upcoming Europe Elections

Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)

Stoyan Nenov, Reuters (March 29, 2023): Disillusioned Bulgarians head to polls for fifth time in two years

RFE/RL (March 29, 2023): Ex-Cons And Extremists Turn Media Debates Into ‘Circus’ Ahead Of Yet More Bulgarian Elections

Balkan Insight (March 29, 2023): Bomb Threats to Schools Rattle Bulgaria Ahead of Elections

RFE/RL (March 28, 2023): Bulgaria Suspects Russian Role In Bomb Threats Closing Schools For Second Day

Montenegro Presidential Runoff: April 2, 2023 and Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023

Montenegro holds a presidential runofff on April 2, following the first round of the election on March 19. Incumbent Milo Djukanovic, who has been president or PM for 33 years, will face former economy minister Jakov Milatovic.

The last elections, the fifth since independence from Serbia in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government, but that proved short-lived. Several other governments have risen and fallen, and the political situation remains unstable.

AP (March 28, 2023): Montenegro’s president: EU’s neglect gave Russia a platform

Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023

Finland’s general elections are taking place in the context of its bid to join NATO after ending a long-standing policy of neutrality. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats are behind the center-right National Coalition Party in the polls. While Marin remains popular with voters, many Finns are concerned about the country’s rising debt.

As far as who will be prime minister following the elections, it remains anyone’s game. The three main contenders are Marin, National Coalition Party leader Petteri Orpo, or the nationalist Finns Party leader Riikka Purra.

Erika Benke, BBC (March 26, 2023): Finland election: Sanna Marin fights for survival

David Mac Dougall, Euronews (March 25, 2023): Pretty fly for white guys: Politicians in Finland rap for votes ahead of election

AP (March 23, 2023): Finnish president signs required laws to let country enter NATO

Andorra Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023

#Policy #policy European Banking Scandals Are Undermining Transatlantic Trust: Andorra's scandal-ridden banking system needs scrutiny lest it infect the EU. A lot is riding on the microstate's upcoming elections. https://t.co/LGU0oI8GL2

— Upasaka Bala (@upasakabala) March 29, 2023

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023, followed by general elections due in 2024

Last month, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon suddenly announced that she was stepping down. This triggered a leadership contest in her governing Scottish Nationalist Party, which longtime minister Humza Yousaf won. Yousaf succeeds Sturgeon as first minister.

Even though voters rejected Scottish independence in a 2014 referendum, the SNP has been demanding a new referendum. As Lauren Kent at CNN notes: “Yousaf takes over a party with an overriding objective to end Scotland’s three-centuries-long union with England. But while about four in 10 Scots still support independence, according to a poll this month, the departure of Sturgeon – a charismatic and commanding leader – may slow some of the momentum behind a break-up of the United Kingdom.”

Dan Bloom, Politico (March 28, 2023): Jeremy Corbyn formally blocked from running for Labour at next election

Glenn Campbell, BBC (March 28, 2023): What next for Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP and Scotland?

Lauren Kent, CNN, with Reuters (March 27, 2023): Humza Yousaf wins race to replace Sturgeon as Scotland’s next leader

Greece Parliamentary Elections: Local Elections: May 2023 (due) and July 2023 (due)

Greece is due to hold parliamentary elections by July 2023, but earlier elections are possible. The incumbent center-right government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right New Democracy is facing a number of challenges, including a scandal involving domestic surveillance of political opponents and a train crash that killed dozens of people.

Nektaria Stamouli, Politico (March 28, 2023): Greece to hold national election on May 21

Euractiv (March 28, 2023): Greek elections: First round projections show deadlock

Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023 (various cantonal and local elections before and after)

Sam Jones, Financial Times (March 25, 2023): A very Swiss identity crisis: The country’s sense of self as a haven for the world’s money and a beacon of neutrality is being shaken

Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)

Fernando Heller, Euractiv (March 28, 2023): Spanish prime minister reshuffles cabinet before elections

Reuters (March 27, 2023): Spain’s conservatives seen winning general election, poll shows

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: November 11, 2023 (due – earlier elections possible)

Reuters (March 23, 2023): Poland’s ruling nationalists push John Paul II’s legacy to election centre stage

North Macedonia General Elections: 2024 (snap elections possible)

Aleksandar Samardjiev, OBC Transeuropa (March 24, 2023): North Macedonia, a government in perpetual transformation

Konstantin Testorides, AP (March 23, 2023): Germany urges North Macedonia to amend charter for EU bid

Past Europe Elections

Estonia Parliamentary Elections: March 5, 2023

Estonia’s center-right, pro-west Reform Party came in first place in the March 5 elections, and will likely be able to form a coalition to keep the current prime minister, Kaja Kallas, in power. 

This is all happening in the context of major security concerns. Because Estonia is a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy, Russia has for a long time targeted the country with cyberattacks and other provocations. In the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, security concerns are at the top of Estonians’ minds. 

Mait Ots, ERR News (March 27, 2023): New government to take office likely in the second half of April

Europe Elections Coming Up in 2023

Several European countries hold elections that determine who runs the government: Cyprus (fun fact: Cyprus is the EU’s only full presidential system), Monaco, Estonia, Andorra, Finland, Greece, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, and Spain.

In addition, Montenegro and Slovakia appear on track to hold snap elections. And Bulgaria could hold its fourth general election in three years.

Moreover, a number of other countries in Europe could hold snap elections at short notice – it happens.

Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023

Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)

Andorra Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023

Montenegro Presidential Runoff: April 2, 2023

Switzerland, Cantonal Elections in Geneva, Ticino, and Lucerne: April 2, 2023

Italy, Friuli-Venezia Giulia Regional and Local Elections: April 2-3, 2023

Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 23, 2023

Kosovo Partial Local Elections: April 23, 2023

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023

Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023

Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Northern Ireland: May 18, 2023

Greece Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023

Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 31, 2023

Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Montenegro Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023

Luxembourg Local Elections: June 11, 2023

Spain, Regional Elections in Various Regions: June 25, 2023

Norway Local Elections: September 11, 2023

Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)

Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 8, 2023

Luxembourg General Elections: October 8, 2023

Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023

Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Finland, Åland Elections: October 2023 (due)

Portugal, Regional Elections in Madeira: October 2023 (due)

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections (due – earlier elections possible): November 11, 2023

Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)

Switzerland Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): December 12, 2023

Andorra Local Elections: December 2023 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Middle East

March 28, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Blue Lagoon at Gwadar, a major port in Pakistan and the site of a Chinese Belt and Road project. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Madihasalam (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Ongoing Middle East Elections

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing

Lebanon’s fractious parliament is in the process of selecting a president. As part of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the president is always a Maronite Christian (and conversely, a Sunni serves as prime minister and a Shi’ite as speaker of the parliament). 

The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2022 in the context of a political and economic crisis exacerbated by the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut. In those elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats. 

The fragmented parliament has not been able to pick a new president, leaving a vacuum following the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022. Aoun was a strong ally of Hezbollah. Michel Moawad, an anti-Hezbollah candidate, has won the most votes on several ballots, but not a majority. Voting will continue until someone can break the stalemate. 

As a result of not having a president, Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government is operating in a caretaker capacity, and it is exacerbating Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, with the currency hitting new record lows.

Raya Jalabi, Financial Times (March 28, 2023): Lebanon fails the test of time: The decision to delay daylight savings plunged the country into a crisis of conflicting time zones

Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post (March 28, 2023): What’s behind Lebanon’s bizarre time zone dispute?

Reuters (March 27, 2023): After clocks confusion, Lebanon to shift to summer time

Fadi Nicholas Nassar and Saleh El Machnouk, Middle East Institute (March 24, 2023): Paris failed. Washington must lead in breaking the mafia-militia’s chokehold on Lebanon

Najia Houssari, Arab News (March 24, 2023): US official meets Lebanon’s leaders as violent protests rage outside banks

Aya Iskandarani, AFP (March 23, 2023): IMF warns Lebanon at ‘very dangerous moment’

Assem Mroue, AP (March 21, 2023): Protests in Lebanon as pound hits new low against dollar

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Turkey General Elections: May 14, 2023

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.

Turkey’s opposition made the decision to field a single candidate against Erdoğan in this year’s election. The government barred Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu from running, so the opposition candidate will be Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). While AKP has its roots in political Islam, CHP is staunchly secularist, having been founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. 

In addition, two other candidates are running: Muharrem Ince, who was CHP’s candidate in the last elections, and Sinan Oğan, a former MP from the nationalist MHP. Ince has been described as a spoiler. Following his defeat in the CHP leadership contest, he formed a new party called Memleket (which means Homeland). He is known or his combative style, in contrast to the more mild-mannered Kilicdaroglu.

While Turkey remains a member of NATO, it has in recent years moved closer to Russia and other authoritarian countries.

The campaign is taking place in the context of the aftermath of an earthquake that ravaged the Turkey-Syria borer on February 6, striking Gaziantep province and killing more than 30,000 people and injuring tens of thousands. 

BIA News Desk (March 28, 2023): Turkey’s election body confirms four presidential candidates

Sinan Tavsan, Nikkei Asia (March 28, 2023): Turkish opposition pledges to reverse Erdogan’s economic policies

Joshua Levkowitz, Foreign Policy (March 26, 2023): Turkey’s Xenophobic Turn Targets Stateless Syrians: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vowing to repatriate refugees ahead of an election he desperately wants to win

AFP (March 25, 2023): Combative spoiler enters Turkey’s election campaign

Elizabeth Hagedorn, Al-Monitor (March 24, 2023): Turkey left off guest list for Biden’s 2nd democracy summit

Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor (March 23, 2023): Meet Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkey’s long-derided opposition head who could dethrone Erdogan

Balkan Insight (March 22, 2023): Turkey Punishes TV Channels for Critical Coverage Ahead of Elections

Suzan Fraser, AP (March 22, 2023): In boost to opposition, Kurdish party won’t field candidate

Daren Butler and Umit Ozdal, Reuters (March 21, 2021): Turkey’s Kurds eye kingmaker role in election against Erdogan

Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: April 30, 2023 and Punjab: October 8, 2023 (delayed from April), followed by General Elections: October 12, 2023 (early elections possible)

Following Pakistan’s turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats. However, Khan was ousted in an April 2022 vote of no confidence and former opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister. Since then, Khan has sought to force earlier elections as his popularity continues to rise in opinion polls.

This is all taking place in the context of an economic crisis, with soaring prices and rolling blackouts. As a result, the government risks losing the next elections. But delaying the election also creates challenges, given how angry voters are. 

Arif Rafiq observes: “There is little appetite to live in a country where upward mobility and political rights are denied by the civilian-military elite. Many Pakistanis are now voting with their feet. Over 800,000 Pakistanis left the country to work abroad last year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. According to a Gallup Pakistan survey, over fifty percent of Pakistanis with a university degree would like to leave the country.”

Kashif Imran, Arab News (March 27, 2023): Pakistan’s ex-PM Khan calls for snap elections at massive Lahore rally

Munir Ahmed, AP (March 24, 2023): Pakistani court grants protection to Imran Khan from arrest: Officials say a Pakistani court has extended former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s protection from arrest until next week

Diaa Hadid and Steve Inskeep, NPR (March 24, 2023): In a polarized Pakistan, Imran Khan accuses opponents of conspiracies

Ayaz Gul, Voice of America (March 23, 2023): Pakistani Authorities Under Fire for Delaying Crucial Provincial Election

AP (March 22, 2023): Pakistan’s election body delays voting for Punjab Assembly

Iraq Regional Elections: November 6, 2023

Iraq has set regional council elections for November 6, the first in a decade, in all of the provinces except for Kurdistan, which is autonomous. The councils have significant budgetary powers under Iraq’s 2005 constitution, which created a federal system.

Iraq held early elections on in October 2021  as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability, with various politicians boycotting.

AP (March 27, 2023): Iraqi Parliament Passes Controversial Election Law Amendments

Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: November 18, 2023

Kurdistan is officially part of Iraq but largely operates as a de facto independent entity. 

Chenar Chalak at Rudaw notes: “The Kurdistan Region’s ruling parties, the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), have been at loggerheads in recent months over the Region’s parliamentary elections, the transparency of the oil and local income of the provinces under their influence, and the assassination of a former PUK colonel in Erbil in October.”

Reuters (March 26, 2023): Iraq’s Kurdistan region to hold elections on Nov. 18: Spokesman

Egypt Elections: 2025 (due)

Hisham Gaafar, Fanack (March 23, 2023): Egypt’s Elusive Spring and the Path to 2024’s Elections

Palestinian Authority General Elections: Long Overdue

The Palestinian Authority is long overdue to hold general elections. President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 18 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. However, local elections did take place in 2021 and 2022.

Hannah McCarthy, Irish Times (March 26, 2023): Palestinian Authority PM Mohammad Shtayyeh: Holding elections an ‘existential issue’ for leadership

Past Middle East Elections

Israel Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 1, 2022

Israel has held five sets of general elections over the past four years. The most recent returned Bibi Netanyahu to power, this time heading what has been called the country’s most right-wing government to date.

Israeli is currently experiencing some of the biggest protests in its history, some involving 100,000 people, sparked by Netanyahu’s plan to overhaul the judiciary. Critics of the plan say that it would remove a key set of checks and balances in policymaking and give whoever has the majority in parliament too much power, while proponents say that the judiciary currently has too much of a de facto veto over policy and reforms are necessary. 

But even some who support reforms take issue with the fact that this is being done so quickly, without taking the time to build consensus. President Yitzhak Herzog made a rare statement warning of a potential constitutional collapse.

New York Times (March 28, 2023): A Win for Israel’s Protesters Demonstrations forced Israel’s prime minister to delay a judicial overhaul.

Natasha Turak and Ruxandra Iordache, CNBC (March 27, 2023): Netanyahu survives no-confidence vote as angry protests, strikes paralyze Israel over judicial reforms

Anshel Pfeffer, Foreign Policy (March 27, 2023): In Israel, It’s Gatekeepers 1, Bibi 0: The bureaucrats side with the protesters, forcing Netanyahu to delay a key vote.

Kuwait Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 29, 2022

Although the monarchy appoints the government, Kuwait has one of the most powerful parliaments in the Gulf.

AP notes: “In September, voters sent conservative Islamist figures and two women to the assembly in the second election in less than two years. The election results were seen as a mandate for change amid a prolonged period of gridlock between the Cabinet and the 50-member assembly.”

AFP (March 26, 2023): ‘Great misery’: Kuwait political crisis drags down economy

Regional Power Politics

William Figueroa, Foreign Policy Research Institute (March 24, 2023): Iran-Saudi Normalization: A Regional Process with Chinese Characteristics

Nadeen Ebrahim and Mostafa Salem, CNN, (March 22, 2023): A Saudi-Iran reconciliation may not end the war in Yemen just yet

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023

Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold elections that determine who runs the government. In addition, long-overdue elections in the Palestinian Authority and Libya could take place in 2023, but don’t hold your breath.

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): continues in March 2023

Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: April 30, 2023

Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 14, 2023

Lebanon Local Elections: May 31, 2023 (postponed from 2022 – additional delays possible)

Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible)

Israel Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)

United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 2023 (due)

Iraq Regional Elections: November 6, 2023

Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: November 18, 2023

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Africa

March 27, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

A lion in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Laura (cardamom) (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)

Zimbabwe is due to hold general elections in July 2023. They will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, governs in an authoritarian, repressive manner.

Privilege Musvanhiri, DW (March 27, 2023): Zimbabwe: Young voters register for elections

Gibbs Dube, Voice of America (March 27, 2023): Ministers, Veteran MPs Bite The Dust in Zanu PF Primary Elections

Voice of America (March 27, 2023 – video): Zanu PF Members Fuming Over Irregularities in Party Primary Elections

Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations (March 21, 2023): Zimbabwe Limps Toward Elections

Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023

The DRC’s last elections, in December 2018, took place after multiple delays and were mired in controversy and dispute. Nonetheless, they did produce the first peaceful transfer of power in the history of the country’s independence, with former opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi being declared the winner of the presidential poll (even though election observers from the highly-trusted Catholic Church said their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu). 

The DRC faces numbers political and security crises, exacerbated by conflicts over massive mineral wealth. By some estimates, the country has untapped reserves worth $24 trillion, and with increased interest in electronic vehicles and other technologies that require rare earths, this has become a subject of increased interest internationally. 

Due to its size and central location, conflicts from neighboring countries spill over into the DRC. The horrific conflicts happening in the eastern part of the country send shockwaves through the entire region.

Stanis Bujakera and Sonia Rolley, Reuters (March 23, 2023): Congo President Tshisekedi brings in former VP Bemba in reshuffle ahead of election

Romain Gras, The Africa Report (March 22, 2023): Is the upcoming DRC presidential election being played out in Washington?

The Diplomat (March 20, 2023): China Sends Military Drones to DRC Amid Fears of Regional War: The DRC has purchased Chinese attack drones, raising concerns about China’s role in exacerbating the DRC-Rwanda conflict.

Senegal Presidential Election: February 2024 (due)

Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). 

Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term.

A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. 

Miles Parks, NPR (March 26, 2023): In Senegal, the government is cracking down on human rights

Africanews (March 23, 2023): Senegal: President Sall demands measures to stop unrest

Rwanda Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due), followed by presidential election due in 2024 (parliamentary elections could be delayed to the same time as the presidential election)

Reuters (March 25, 2023): Rwanda plans constitutional change to hold presidential and parliamentary polls together

The Guardian (March 25, 2023): Hotel Rwanda’s Paul Rusesabagina released from prison: Ex-hotelier whose actions saved lives during 1994 genocide has sentence for terrorism charges commuted

South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)

South Africa’s ANC has won every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, but it had its worst result ever in 2019, winning less than 60 percent of the vote. While South Africa is a vibrant democracy, Freedom House notes: “…in recent years, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has been accused of undermining state institutions to protect corrupt officials and preserve its power as its support base has begun to wane.” 

Corruption remains an issue. Moreover, power cuts have been bad lately, with people experiencing up to 12 hours a day without electricity, prompting President Cyril Ramaphosa to declare a national disaster.

Geopolitically, South Africa has strong ties to Russia and China as a member of the BRICS. The three countries are hosting a joint naval exercise, much to the consternation of Europe and the United States.

Antony Sguazzin, Bloomberg (March 27, 2023): Support for South Africa’s Populist Opposition Has Plunged, Poll Shows

South Sudan Elections: December 2024 (proposed)

South Sudan plans to hold elections in December 2024, after multiple delays, the first since independence in 2011. Salva Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. Following the country’s civil war, which took place from 2013 to 2020, Kiir entered into a power-sharing agreement with Riek Machar, who had commanded the opposition forces during the civil war. However, there are frequent disputes between Kiir and Machar. 

The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. 

Sudan Tribune (March 21, 2023): No more extension of transitional government: Kiir

Chad General Elections: October 2024 (additional delays possible due to coup situation)

Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, who seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, 2021, he was killed by rebels while fighting on the front lines. His son, 37-year-old General Mahamat Déby, declared himself interim leader, backed by the military. He dissolved parliament and promised elections within 18 months, by December 2022. However, it is unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote, and elections are riven by lengthy delays, violence, and fraud.

Chadian politics are taking place in the context of instability and insecurity throughout the Sahel region, which could increase as France winds down Operation Barkhane, its counterterrorism operation in the region. Russian mercenaries are stepping in to fill the void and plunder the region’s resources, leading to higher levels of violence.

RFI (March 26, 2023): Chad’s president signs pardon for 380 rebels sentenced to life in prison

Reuters (March 21, 2023): Chad sentences 441 rebels to life in prison over ex-president Deby’s death

Somalia Presidential Election: 2026 (due – delays possible)

Somalia finally held its long-delayed presidential election on May 15, 2022. Former president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who served from 2012 to 2017 before losing re-election, was elected, defeating incumbent Mohamed “Farmaajo.”

The Horn of Africa country does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Although the idea of holding direct elections had been floated for 2022, ultimately the clan-based system remained in place. But discussions to transition to a one-person-one-vote system continue.

AFP (March 22, 2023): Somalia to hold elections by universal suffrage, president says

Uganda Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 2026 (due)

Uganda las held presidential and legislative elections in January 2021. President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986, but this time faced possibly his biggest challenge yet in the form of 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine. Following the elections, the government launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition.

The Independent Uganda (March 28, 2023): Opposition wants end to Uganda’s ‘winner takes all’ elections

Charlie Mitchell, Times of London (March 24, 2023): Yoweri Musevini’s son-in-law insists he will be Uganda’s president: Odrek Rwabwogo is emerging as a challenger to General Muhoozi Kainerugaba

Past Africa Elections

Nigeria Local and Gubernatorial Elections: March 18, 2023 (postponed from March 11, and following general elections on February 25)

Nigeria held general elections on February 25. Bola Tinuba from the governing “sort of left” All Progressives Congress Party (APC) won the presidency, defeating Atiku Abubakar from the main opposition “sort of right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi from the Labour Party, as well as a number of other candidates (incumbent Muhammadu Buhari was term-limited and unable to run for re-election). However, both Obi and Atiku are challenging the results.

In past years, PDP and APC got the vast majority of the vote share in presidential elections, but Obi won 25 percent, and won a majority in Lagos, Nigeria’s state.

In the gubernatorial elections, which took place a week late (election delays at short notice are not infrequent in Nigeria), PDP and APC remained dominant. Although Obi’s supporters had hoped to win in Lagos, the incumbent APC governor won re-election.

Joel Olatunde Agoi, AFP (March 21, 2023): Nigeria’s ruling party wins majority of states in local election

Camillus Eboh, Reuters (March 21, 2023): Nigeria’s Obi, Atiku challenge presidential election results

Cameroon Indirect Senate Elections (by members of local councils): March 12, 2023 (presidential election due in 2025)

Cameroon holds elections, but President Paul Biya has been in power since 1982, most recently winning re-election in 2018. Elections in the country, including the most recent, have been marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.

Cameroon is in the midst of several other crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Africanews with AFP (March 24, 2023): Cameroon: Biya’s party wins all Senate seats

Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022

Evelyne Musambi at AP notes: “More than a dozen civil society groups have in a joint statement expressed concern over police declaring Monday’s protests illegal and urged authorities to uphold people’s constitutional right to peaceful demonstrations.”

Evelyne Musambi, AP (March 27, 2023): Anti-government protests in Kenya hit Nairobi for 2nd week

David Herbling, The Diplomat (March 27, 2023): Kenya Protests Intensify as Opposition Leader Defies Government

Tanzania General Elections: October 28, 2020

Tanzania’s ruling party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has been in power since independence, and has won every election since multiparty elections began in the 90s. The country took an authoritarian turn under John Magufuli, who was elected president in 2015. 

However, following Magufuli’s death in 2021, the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, has opened up the political space. She lifted a ban on opposition rallies and secured the release of Freedman Mbowe, leader of the main opposition Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema). In addition, Chadema’s vice chair, Tundu Lissu, has returned from exile. There is hope that Tanzania will continue to move toward greater freedom and democracy.

Bonface Witaba, Global Voices (March 28, 2023): Tanzania’s President Suluhu’s attendance at opposition’s event signals the start of cordial relations

Niger Presidential Elections: December 27, 2020 and February 21, 2021 (runoff)

Niger presidential elections in December 2020/February 2021 amid security threats and violence. Mohamed Bazoum from the ruling party won the presidential vote. Despite that, the historic election facilitated Niger’s first peaceful transfer of power from one elected president to another.

Jean-Loup Samaan at The National notes: “Almost two years after elections and a successful political transition saw Mr Bazoum assume the presidency, his steady leadership has encouraged the West to put most of its bets in the region on Niger.” 

Other countries of the Sahel – including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad – have been riven by coups and political instability. Simultaneously, those countries have deepened ties with Russia, in some cases hosting Wagner Group troops. However, Niger is not immune to similar issues, having previously experienced coups and stopping one shortly after the 2021 elections. 

Jean-Loup Samaan, The National UAE (March 24, 2023): Will Niger get stuck on the Russia-West seesaw in the Sahel?

Democracy and Geopolitics

AFP (March 27, 2023): US to open democracy summit as Russia, China launch diplomatic offensive

Akayla Gardner, Bloomberg (March 24, 2023): US Fights for Influence in Africa Where China, Russia Loom Large

Tiseke Kasambala, Daily Maverick (March 22, 2023): Summit for Democracy is an opportunity to restore African citizens’ trust

Africa Elections Coming Up in 2023

Seven countries in Africa are scheduled to elections that will determine who heads the government: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Liberia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In addition, Sudan has talked about holding long-delays general elections in July, but additional delays are possible. 

Mauritania Legislative and Local Elections: May 13, 2023

Gambia Local Elections: May 13, 2023

Mauritania Legislative and Local Runoffs: May 18, 2023

Sierra Leone Presidential and Legislative Elections: June 24, 2023

Mali Local Elections: June 2023 (due – delays possible)

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)

Sudan General Elections: July 2023 (tentative – delays possible)

Gabon Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)

Eswatini Parliamentary and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)

Gabon Legislative Elections: September 2023 (due)

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023

Mozambique Local Elections: October 11, 2023

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Imo State, Kogi State, and Bayelsa State: November 11, 2023

Madagascar Presidential Election: October 2023 (due)

Mali Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due – delays possible)

Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023

Togo Legislative and Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)

Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections (due in 2023)

Comoros Gubernatorial Elections (due in 2023)

Ghana Local Elections (due in 2023)

Guinea-Bissau Local Elections (due in 2023)

Guinea Local Elections (due in 2023 – delays possible to to coup situation)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Americas

March 25, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Ypacarai Lake in Paraguay. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Panoramio (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Cuba Parliamentary Elections: March 24, 2023 (a sham – no opposition allowed)

Jim Wyss, Bloomberg (March 25, 2023): Cuba Holds a Stacked Election Amid the Biggest Population Exodus Since the Revolution

Andrea Rodríguez, AP (March 24, 2023): Cuba holds national elections with no opposition candidates

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Paraguay’s election could result in yet another country switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC. Incumbent president Mario Abdo from the conservative Colorado Party is ineligible to run for another term. Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre from the liberal PRLA has said that if he wins, he’ll recognize Beijing, while Colorado’s candidate, Santiago Pena, has said he will maintain relations with Taiwan.

Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.

Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. These elections took place in the context of political violence and attacks on candidates. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.

Catherine Osburn, Foreign Policy (March 24, 2023): Paraguay’s Rare Toss-Up Election: Anti-incumbent and pro-China sentiments are shaking up the country’s usually predictable political landscape.

Daniel Politi, AP (March 23, 2023): Paraguay launches corruption probe of former president

Chase Harrison and Jon Orbach, AS/COA (March 23, 2023): Explainer: Paraguay’s 2023 Elections

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023, followed by General Elections: July 2024

Some Mexican states are holding gubernatorial elections this year, but the country’s politicos are all gearing up for the big presidential election in 2024. 

Populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (often called AMLO) stormed to election in 2018, but he is barred from seeking another term. There had been some talk of him potentially trying to run again anyway, but he now says he will not. But concerns about growing authoritarianism remain, particularly with a package of electoral reforms he is trying to enact.

Valentine Hilaire, Reuters (March 24, 2023): Mexico’s top court freezes electoral reform ahead of lawsuit

Rocio Fabbro, Foreign Policy (March 23, 2023): López Obrador’s Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Guatemala’s last elections, in 2019, took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

Bnamericas (March 24, 2023): What’s at risk in Guatemala’s general elections

AP (March 20, 2023): Guatemala seeks to remove opposition candidate’s immunity

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Jacob Sugarman, Foreign Policy (March 24, 2023): Why Latin America Will Stay Nonaligned: As Argentina’s president prepares to meet with the U.S. president, the bloc’s consensus on Russia’s war in Ukraine will be put to the test

Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg (March 23, 2023): Why Argentina’s Inflation Is Up Over 100% Again

Bnamericas (March 22, 2023): Oil province Neuquén’s elections – a risk analyst’s overview

Federico Rivas Molina, El País (March 21, 2023): Javier Milei, the libertarian candidate riding Argentina’s rising tide of discontent

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

In 2022, Colombia elected its first-ever leftist president, Gustavo Petro. In concurrent legislative elections, however, no party won a majority and centrists did not perform well. Ironically given his name, Petro pledged to end oil exploration.

Colombian politics are polarized and the climate is tense.

Lucas Berti, The Brazilian Report (March 24, 2023): Colombia’s Petro gives up on political reform in setback

El Salvador General Elections: February 4, 2024

El Salvador has seen an increase in authoritarianism under President Nayib Bukele, a populist elected in 2019. Bukele, a millennial in a baseball cap, is not affiliated with either ARENA or the FMLN, El Salvador’s two dominant parties on the right and left respectively. 

In 2021, Bukele’s allies won the legislative elections in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Since then, he has ramped up his attacks on critics and the press. He has announced that he is running for re-election in 2024, following a decision by the country’s Supreme Court to scrap a ban on presidents running for a consecutive second term.

Tamara Taraciuk Broner and Noah Bullock, Americas Quarterly (March 21, 2023): Countering El Salvador’s Democratic Backsliding

David Marcial Pérez, El País (March 20, 2023): Nayib Bukele’s permanent state of emergency: The Salvadoran president’s fierce war on gangs has quelled rampant violence and gained him unprecedented popularity while exacting a heavy toll on rights and freedoms

Canada Federal Elections: Due by October 2025 – snap elections possible (various provincial and local elections due between now and then)

Rob Gillies, AP (March 23, 2023): Canada lawmaker quits Trudeau’s party amid China allegations

Ismail Shakil, Reuters (March 21, 2023): Canada PM Trudeau’s top aide to testify in parliament on Chinese election meddling

Past Americas Elections

Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023

Ecuador held local and regional elections on February 5, as well as a referendum on constitutional amendments backed by President Guillermo Lasso. Lasso, who is center-right, was elected in a close runoff in 2021 in one of the handful of Latin American elections that resisted the “pink tide.” He is up for re-election in 2025.

The elections dealt a blow to Lasso, with the leftist opposition winning most major cities, including the port of Guayaquil, the country’s biggest city, which the right had controlled since the 90s. Now, some are calling for Lasso’s impeachment and/or early elections.

Armando Quesada Webb, El País (March 22, 2023): María Fernanda Vargas, from OnlyFans star to winner of mayoral race in Ecuador

Bnamericas (March 21, 2023): Attempt to impeach Ecuador’s Lasso moves a step forward

Brazil General Elections: October 2, 2022

Reuters (March 24, 2023): Bolsonaro to return to Brazil on March 30, his party says

Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021

Honduras held presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidential race.

These elections took place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Some feared post-election turmoil this year, but Nasry Asfura, the National Party’s candidate, conceded.

Cindy Wang and Debby Wu, Bloomberg (March 25, 2023): Taiwan, Honduras to Cut Diplomatic Ties on China Recognition

Peru General Elections: April 11, 2021 (early elections could be set for April or December 2024)

Ryan Dube, Wall Street Journal (March 23, 2023): In Peru, Protests Reveal Deep Social Divide

Will Freeman, Council on Foreign Relations (March 22, 2023): How Peru’s Crisis Could Send Shockwaves Through the Region

Suriname General Elections: May 25, 2020

Suriname held elections on May 25, 2020. Dési Bouterse, a leftist who has been a major figure in Suriname politics since 1980, lost his bid for re-election. He initially came to power in 1980 by helping to lead a sergeant’s coup. In 1982, in response to increased calls for a return to civilian rule, the regime murdered 15 prominent opposition activists – the incident, dubbed the December murders, continues to reverberate, and and in November 2019, he was ultimately convicted and sentenced to more than 20 years in prison.

Scott B. MacDonald notes: ”On February 17, 2023, a protest against Suriname’s austerity policies and corruption morphed into a full-blown riot and looting. These riots ended with police shots fired, arrests, and considerable damage to the center of the capital city, Paramaribo. Protesters called for the removal of President Chandrikapersad “Chan” Santokhi and Vice President Ronnie Brunswijk.”

Gerold Rozenblad, AP (March 24, 2023): Protesters in Suriname demand president resign

Robert Looney, World Politics Review (March 20, 2023): Suriname’s Debt Crisis Is Putting Santokhi in a Bind

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023

Antigua and Barbuda, Barbuda Council Election: March 29, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Neuquén and Río Negro: April 16, 2023

British Virgin Islands Assembly Elections: April 24, 2023

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Jujuy, Misiones and La Rioja: May 7, 2023

Chile Constitutional Council Elections: May 7, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in La Pampa, San Juan, Salta, Tucumán and Tierra del Fuego: May 14, 2023

Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Legislative Elections in Corrientes: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in San Luis: June 11, 2023

Guyana Local Elections: June 12, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Córdoba: June 18, 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Argentina Presidential Primary: August 13, 2023

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 27, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Mendoza and Entre Ríos: September 24, 2023

Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023

Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023

Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)

Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)

Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Asia

March 24, 2023

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Drum House at the Red Fort in Delhi, India. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Vssun (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Asia Elections

Australia, New South Wales Elections: March 25, 2023

Reuters (March 23, 2023): Australia’s Biggest State to Vote in Close-Run Election

Japan Unified Local Elections and Parliamentary By-Elections: April 9, 2023 (next national elections due in 2025)

Kyodo News notes: “Official campaigning for a series of local elections started across Japan on Thursday, with the results likely to determine whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will decide to dissolve the Lower House for a snap general election amid sluggish support ratings.”

Kyodo News (March 23, 2023): Official campaigning for nationwide local elections begins in Japan

Sri Lanka Local Elections: April 25, 2023 (additional delays possible)

Sri Lanka had planned to hold local elections on March 9, 2023, its first elections since major protests over inflation, shortages, and a general economic crisis began in March 2022. However, the government called them off. A court subsequently ordered that they be held, and the election commission has announced the they will take place on April 25. 

The protests last year led to the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and members of his family. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former opposition leader, became president.

Sri Lanka is a hotspot for geopolitical competition between China and India. The Rajapaksa moved the country closer to China.

PTI (March 23, 2023): Citing funds crunch, Sri Lanka’s Election Commission postpones postal voting for next month’s local body polls

PTI (March 21, 2023): Sri Lanka to be first country in Asia to come under IMF’s governance diagnostic exercise

Reuters (March 21, 2023): Sri Lanka’s economic crisis: From protests to IMF bailout

Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023

Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. Prayuth is running for another term, but so is his mentor, fellow royalist military officer Prawit Wongsuwan. They will face the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is running. 

Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. 

As Reuters notes: “Administrations loyal to Shinawatras have each been removed by the military or judicial rulings, adding fuel to a seemingly intractable political crisis that has ebbed and flowed in Thailand for over 17 years.”

Reuters (March 21, 2023): Thailand to hold general election on May 14, poll body says

Dominic Oo and Thompson Chau, Al Jazeera (March 21, 2023): Myanmar’s democratic struggle at stake in Thailand’s election: Myanmar people in Thailand hope a new government in Bangkok will take a tougher line on the coup leaders in Naypyidaw.

Robin Vochelet, The Diplomat (March 21, 2023): From the Streets to the Ballot Box: Ex-Student Protesters Prepare for Thailand’s Election

Rebecca Ratcliffe, The Guardian (March 20, 2023): Thailand: Paetongtarn Shinawatra leads polls as country heads towards election

Tam Tam Mei, Straits Times (March 20, 2023): Thailand’s pro-military party fashions itself as a peacemaker ahead of general election

India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due), then State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due), and General Elections: 2024 (Following state elections in Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya in February 2023)

India’s states have their own elected governments that have significant devolved power. Roughly one-third of them hold elections in 2023. First up: the northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, followed by votes in Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana (and possibly Jammu & Kashmir) later this year.

These state elections will set the tone for next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls, which determine who runs the government. Narendra Modi’s BJP is campaigning for a history-making third term.

Manveena Suri and Rhea Mogul, CNN, (March 24, 2023): India’s parliament strips Rahul Gandhi of lawmaker status after defamation conviction

Cherylann Mollan and Soutik Biswas, BBC (March 24, 2023): Rahul Gandhi: India’s Congress leader sentenced to jail for Modi ‘thieves’ remark

Graham Lanktree, Politico (March 18, 2023): Crunch time for multibillion UK-India deal as elections loom

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023

Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”

The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.

Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (March 22, 2023): Cambodia Arrests Opposition Activists for Posts About Country’s King

Radio Free Asia (March 21, 2023): Hun Sen says Cambodia doesn’t need EU trade preference to succeed: The EU has threatened to raise tariffs if Cambodia doesn’t release Kem Sokha, improve rights record

Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)

Six of Malaysia’s 13 states are due to hold elections in 2023. Under Malaysia’s federal system, significant powers are devolved to state governments.

On the national scene, Malaysia held general elections in November 2022 that produced a hung parliament – the first time in the country’s history that no coalition succeeded in securing a majority. The Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) won the most seats in a historic result, but two dominant coalitions – the Malay-dominated conservative Barisan Nasional (the country’s dominant party since independence) and Anwar Ibrahaim’s liberal Pakatan Harapan put aside major differences to form a secularist unity government. 

In addition, UMNO – Malaysia’s oldest political party and the dominant member of the Barisan Barisan Nasional coalition – is holding a leadership election this year which could be very vigorously contested.

Malaysia’s location on the Strait of Malacca and straddling the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean makes it crucial to the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. 

JD Supra (March 23, 2023): In Transition: Malaysia after the 15th General Elections

Norman Goh, Nikkei Asia (March 22, 2023): Malaysia’s Anwar seeks to mend Saudi ties cooled by 1MDB

Malay Mail/New Straits Times (March 19, 2023): Malaysia PM Anwar Ibrahim vows crackdown on those who use religion and race to sow dissension

Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)

Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, 2021 the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence).

Burma is of geopolitical importance because of its location on the Indian Ocean. China has sought to cultivate ties in order to get more access to the Indian Ocean, and simultaneously, western governments have at times pursued warmer relations with the regime.

Igor Blazevic, The Irrawaddy (March 22, 2023): China ‘Increasingly Concerned’ About Instability in Post-Coup Myanmar: US Expert

Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023

Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky and the former dictator and his family remain involved in politics.

On January 28, the pro-democracy, center-right Maldivian Democratic Party (currently in power) held a primary to decide its presidential candidate. Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih defeated former president Mohamed Nasheed. However, the campaign was bitter and Nasheed has not yet accepted the results or endorsed Solih, which threatens to split the pro-democracy vote ahead of the general election.

Meanwhile, another former president, Abdulla Yameen, who is also brother-in-law of the former dictator, will be the candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Former defense minister Mohamed Nazim is also running. 

The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. MDP is broadly pro-India while PPM is broadly pro-China.

The Diplomat (March 25, 2023): China-India Choice Splits Maldives Presidential Politics: As Maldives looks to parliamentary and presidential elections in September 2023, the China-India choice maps neatly on to domestic political divides

N Saatiya Moorthy, Observer Research Foundation (March 24, 2023): Maldives: How ‘swing voters’ matter in presidential polls

New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023

New Zealand’s October general elections got a bit more interesting following the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, considered a star on the global stage but under increasing pressure in New Zealand due to her authoritarian tendencies and failure to deliver on basic campaign promises. 

Ardern cited personal reasons for her resignation, but under her leadership, the Labour Party lost a lot of support. Currently, the center-right Nationals are favored to win the elections, but a lot can happen in a few months.

Chris Hipkins succeeded Ardern as prime minister and immediately began rolling back some of her restrictions on speech and other authoritarian policies, saying instead that the Labour Party should focus on bread-and-butter issues.

Tess McClure, The Guardian (March 20, 2023): Coalition creaks as New Zealand Greens watch Labour dump climate policies

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner. 

Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”

Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country. 

Dhaka Tribune (March 22, 2023): US envoy discusses free, fair elections in Bangladesh with Awami League leaders

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024

Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.

The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Recently, various high-level KMT officials, including former president Ma Ying-Jeoh, have traveled to the mainland. Ma’s visit marks the first time a president of Taiwan has visited the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.

Jeff Pao, Asia Times (March 21, 2023): KMT ex-Taiwan president’s mainland visit means what?

Eric Cheung and Kathleen Magramo, CNN (March 20, 2023): Former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou to make historic visit to mainland China

Thompson Chau, Nikkei Asia (March 20, 2023): Taiwan to strengthen wartime mobilization amid rising China threat

Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024

Indonesia has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for February 14, 2024, followed by provincial elections on November 27, 2024, ending speculation that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would seek to delay the election and extend his term.

In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics. 

As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.

Amy Chew, Nikkei Asia (March 21, 2023): IS-linked extremists infiltrate ASEAN, eyeing Indonesia 2024 polls

Solomon Islands: 2024 (delayed from 2023)

Caitlin McFall, Fox News (March 22, 2023): China secures another South Pacific win in Solomon Islands port bid

Stephen Wright, Radio Free Asia (March 17, 2023): US Indo-Pacific commander: China’s play for Solomon Islands woke up officials

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Nepal Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): March 9, 2023

Following general elections in November 2022, Nepal’s two main communist parties formed a government headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda, a former Maoist insurgent leader. Prachanda replaced Sher Bahadur Deuba from the social democratic Nepali Congress as prime minister (Nepal’s political parties are mostly various flavors of leftist). Deuba had sought to move Nepal farther away from China and closer to India, but the various communist parties now in power all have strong ties to Beijing.

Nepal’s politics remain unstable, with citizens broadly unsatisfied by the performance of elected officials. 

Gopal Sharma at Reuters notes: “Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal won a vote of confidence in parliament on Monday after securing the support of the opposition centrist Nepali Congress party and other smaller groups who are now expected to join his new cabinet.”

Gopal Sharma, Reuters (March 20, 2023): Nepal’s PM Dahal wins confidence vote, set to form new coalition

Pacific Geopolitics

Reuters (March 23, 2023): U.S. aims for over $7 billion in aid for 20-year Pacific islands compacts

Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023

Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023

Japan Unified Local Elections (first stage), plus various gubernatorial elections: April 9, 2023

Bhutan Upper House Elections: April 20, 2023

Japan, Unified Local Elections, Second Stage: April 23, 2023

Sri Lanka Local Elections: April 25, 2023 (additional delays possible)

Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023

Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

New Zealand, Niue General Elections: May 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)

Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)

Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023

Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)

Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023

Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)

Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)

New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023

Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023

Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)

Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023

Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)

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