May 2022 Election Heat Map
Key elections around the world set for May 2022.
Exploring Politics in the 21st Century
This Week
Eurasia
May 5, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A T-72 tank at the Askeran Tank Memorial near Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenians have been protesting the government’s handling of the aftermath of the most recent Nagorno-Karabakh war and calling for the ouster of PM Pashinyan. Photo credit: Wikimedia/KennyOMG (CC0 1.0)
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 11, 2022 (due)
Russia is due to hold regional and gubernatorial elections in some regions in September 2022. Because Russia staggers its regional elections, each year has some scheduled. However, the Kremlin has indicated that the elections due this year may not take place.
Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
Consequently, the Kremlin is waging a brutal crackdown on the opposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him were banned from the election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – was able to field candidates in last year’s Duma elections. Navalny himself is in prison and recently received an additional nine years on top of his prior two and a half year sentence. More
RFE/RL (May 4, 2022): Navalny Says Notorious Prison Is Preparing For His Arrival
Edward Lucas, Daily Mail (April 29, 2022): Will Alexei Navalny be Russia’s Mandela?
Zachary B. Wolf, CNN (April 28, 2022): A Russian opposition leader wants to fight Vladimir Putin with ads on YouTube
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 2023 and Presidential Election: By March 2024
Ukraine is due to hold parliamentary elections in 2023 and a presidential election in 2024.
In the last presidential vote, in 2019, actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyy beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko running on an anti-establishment platform. However, since then, the country’s traditional pro-Europe and pro-Moscow political forces have regained ground. Since the invasion, Ukrainians have rallied around Zelenskyy, but the United Kingdom and others have warned that Russia seeks to topple his government and install a pro-Moscow puppet regime.
Russia’s military aggression, which began in 2014, continues. Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. While Russia had perhaps expected that Ukraine’s government would collapse quickly, it has held. Moreover, most of Ukraine’s political factions have rallied behind Zelenskyy, with former rivals Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko (recently released from prison) posing for photos with him. Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) has met in its chamber, with members singing the national anthem. Most if not all members of the Rada have remained in Ukraine, either to continue to carry out their legislative duties or to fight with the military.
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025.
The last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.
Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova. More
Anda Bologa, CEPA (May 4, 2022): Moldova: Skating on Thin Ice: The tensions in Transnistria enhance concerns that Moldova could be the next country to fall victim to Russian military aggression
Elias Yousif, Stimson Center (April 28, 2022): Is Moldova Next? Crisis Across Ukraine’s Western Border: Amid increasing conflict spillover from neighboring Ukraine, an overview of Moldova’s unique vulnerability to Russia
Past Eurasia Elections
Armenia Indirect Presidential Election: March 3, 2022
Armenia’s parliament elected a new president on March 3, following the resignation of the current president, Armen Sarkissian. Vahagn Khachaturian won the vote, which was boycotted by key opposition factions. In Armenia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial role.
Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20, 2021 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin. Political tensions remain.
RFE/RL (May 4, 2022): Protests Continue In Armenia Over Nagorno-Karabakh ‘Concession’ Fears
AP (May 2, 2022): Armenia detains 180 protesters calling on Pashinyan to quit
AFP (May 1, 2022): Thousands rally in Armenia warning against Karabakh concessions: Opposition leader says ‘large-scale campaign of civil disobedience’ will begin this week.
Nurbanu Kizil, Daily Sabah (May 1, 2022): ‘Turkey-Armenia normalization may foster peace but challenges remain’
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, held a constitutional referendum on February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The changes allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035 and scrap Belarus’s non-nuclear status. Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.
The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue.
In addition, Russia staged troops in Belarus ahead of its invasion of Ukraine. More
Todd Prince, RFE/RL (May 4, 2022): Stanislau Shushkevich, First Leader Of Independent Belarus, Dead At 87
Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy (May 4, 2022): Belarus Is the Other Loser in Putin’s War: Minsk enabled Moscow in its Ukraine war. Now, Belarusians are paying the price.
AFP (April 29, 2022): Belarus opposition seeks US technology help
Giulia Carbonaro, Newsweek (April 28, 2022): Russia, Belarus Call on Former Soviet Nations to Help Form USSR-Style Union
Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021
Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature.
A series of protests in January 2022 rocked the country and left as many as 225 people dead, as well as a reported 12,000 people in detention. Russia briefly sent personnel under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), its military alliance of several post-Soviet states. More
Georgi Gotev, Euractiv (May 2, 2022): Kazakhstan president calls for constitutional referendum, warns against ‘provocateurs’
Emily Couch and Sher Kashimov, Foreign Policy (May 2, 2022): How Western Media Framed Kazakhstan’s Protests: A complicated conflict was reduced to an easy narrative of riots and chaos
Regional
Agenda.ge (May 3, 2022): Czech Senate President pledges support for “fast-track” EU membership for Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine
Shota Kincha, Luiza Mchedlishvili, Ani Avetisyan, and Ismi Aghayev, OC Media (May 3, 2022): Censorship and violence: the challenges to press freedom in the Caucasus in 2022
Mihaela Esanu, Harvard Political Review (April 30, 2022): The Wake-Up Call for Soviet Nostalgics
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 11, 2022 (due)
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
This Week
Europe
May 4, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A “peace wall” separating Catholic and Protestant neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Keith Ruffles (CC BY-SA 3.0)
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Upcoming Europe Elections
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
The United Kingdom holds local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly (although the Northern Ireland elections could take place earlier). The Northern Ireland elections could be a watershed. Polling suggests that unionist parties could lose their majority and the nationalist Sinn Féin could become the biggest party for the first time ever. By far the biggest issue in public debate is Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements following Brexit.
Suzanne Lynch, Politico (May 5, 2022): What Northern Ireland is really voting for: With the nationalist Sinn Féin party gaining ground on both sides of the border, Irish unity has never been closer.
Emmy Vardy, BBC (May 4, 2022): Election 2022: Is Northern Ireland headed for a seismic shift?
The Economist (May 4, 2022 – podcast): “Voters could choose a party that does not want the country to exist”—Elections in Northern Ireland
Amanda Ferguson, Washington Post (May 2, 2022): Sinn Fein could see landmark win in Northern Ireland elections Thursday
Zachary Basu, Axios (May 2, 2022): Boris Johnson’s scandals loom over key local elections
Germany Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022, and Lower Saxony State Elections: October 8, 2022
Germany holds several sets of state elections in 2022, following the “Superwahljahr” (Super Election Year) of 2021, which saw the defeat of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a new “traffic light coalition” government consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.
In May, Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia go to the polls. Schleswig-Holstein currently has a “Jamaica coalition” government – CDU, FDP, and the Greens. North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, is currently governed by a CDU-FDP coalition.
In March, Saarland held state elections. The incumbent government, a grand coalition of CDU and SPD, fell as SPD won a historic landslide.
Paul Gordon, Clean Energy Wire (May 2, 2022): Gas imports and hydrogen put centre stage in northern German election
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (April 29, 2022 – in German): Survey: CDU ahead in the election in Schleswig-Holstein
Iceland Local Elections: May 14, 2022
Iceland holds local elections on May 14. These follow last September’s elections to the Althing, Iceland’s parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world). The incumbent government, a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party, remained in power following those elections. More
Andie Sophia Fontaine, Reykjavik Grapevine (April 29, 2022): Reykjavík Elections Poll: Independence Party Losses Are Progressive Party’s Gains
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
In total, 12 candidates qualified for the first round of the presidential election (by obtaining 500 signatures of elected officials). Pre-election polls were all over the place, but the runoff was a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017. Macron once again won. However, the upcoming legislative elections could create challenges for his agenda if his allies do not win a majority.
Nicholas Charron and Monika Bauhr, London School of Economics (May 4, 2022): Perceptions of quality of government and support for Marine Le Pen in the 2022 French presidential election
Victor Jack, Politico (May 4, 2022): French Socialists, far left unite to fight Macron in parliament election: The deal will mark the first electoral pact for France’s left-wing parties in 20 years.
David Coffey, RFI (May 4, 2022): French firebrand Zemmour to field 550 candidates in legislative polls
Tom Wheeldon and Aude Mazque, France24 (May 3, 2022): France’s conservatives torn over Macron’s ‘siren call’ before parliamentary polls
Victor Jack, Politico (May 2, 2022): French Greens vow to ‘disobey’ EU rules in electoral pact with far left: The move is a surprising turn for the Greens, usually hard-line Europhiles.
Matthieu Pollet, Euractiv (May 3, 2022): French Greens defend pact with Mélenchon’s party ahead of legislatives
AFP (April 29, 2022): Le Pen will stand in French parliamentary elections
Dave Keating, World Politics Review (April 28, 2022): Macron Is Now the EU’s De Facto Leader
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Sweden holds general elections on September 11, 2022.
In June 2021, the left-leaning coalition led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven fell in a no-confidence vote. Lofven was re-elected PM, but could fall in yet another no-confidence vote if his government cannot pass a budget. In August, Lofven suddenly announced his resignation, effective in November. Magdalena Andersson, currently the finance minister, succeeded him and became Sweden’s first female prime minister.
Most recently, Sweden (and Finland) begun debates about joining NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The opposition Moderates, Sweden’s main center-right party, have said they support this, while the incumbent Social Democrats are split.
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian (May 4, 2022): Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats divided on decision to join Nato
Gerard O’Dwyer, Defense News (May 1, 2022): Finland and Sweden intensify talks on joint NATO application
Elizabeth Braw, Foreign Policy (April 29, 2022): The NATO Accession Sweden Never Saw Coming: Finland has taken the lead, but its famously skeptical neighbor is following.
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. However, BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights.
BiH consists of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mostly by Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats, and the Republika Srpska, with mostly Orthodox Serbs. Recently, tensions have flared as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has used increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and taken actions that some analysts see as moving toward secession. According to Reuters, “The Balkan country is going through its worst political crisis since the end of a war in the 1990s after Bosnian Serbs blocked decision-making in national institutions and launched a process to withdraw from the state armed forces, tax system and judiciary.”
Both Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats have threatened to boycott the upcoming elections. The tensions have gone Europe-wide as Croatia’s president has threatened to veto NATO membership for Finland and Sweden unless Bosnia
RFE/RL (May 4, 2022): Bosnia Calls Elections For October 2 Amid Concerns Over Lack of Electoral Reforms
Balkan Insight (May 3, 2022): Media Freedom Remains Major Concern in Balkans, Watchdog Says
Hamza Karcic, TRT World (May 3, 2022): Understanding Croatia’s anti-Bosnia agenda
Rusmir Smajilhodzic, AFP (April 29, 2022): Russia accused of stoking divisions in Bosnia amid war in Ukraine
Pekka Vanttinen and Zeljko Trkanjec, Euractiv (April 27, 2022): Croatian president says Finland, Sweden cannot join NATO before election law change in BiH
Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: By August 2024 (early elections possible)
Montenegro is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2024, but snap polls are possible. The last elections, the fifth since independence in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro became the next prime minister. The political base of the Krivokapic’s coalition was generally pro-Moscow.
The government recently fell a no-confidence motion, which could have led to early elections in May. However, Dritan Abazovic, leader of the pro-Western Black on White, subsequently formed a minority government, along with various ethnic minority parties. Abazovic has promised early elections in spring 2023.
Montenegro joined NATO in 2017, but some Montenegrins prefer closer ties with Russia and Serbia.
Predrag Milic, AP (April 28, 2022): Montenegro lawmakers elect pro-EU government after crisis
Samir Kajosevic, Balkan Insight (April 28, 2022): Opposition Boycotts Election of Montenegro’s First Minority Govt: Dritan Abazovic became Montenegro’s new Prime Minister on Thursday, heading a minority parliament with a one-year mandate to prepare for early elections next spring
Past Europe Elections
Cyprus, Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022
Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey, held snap parliamentary elections on January 22 following the resignation of the government. The nationalist National Unity Party (UBP) won 24 out of 50 seats.
In last year’s presidential election, Ankara-backed nationalist Ersin Tatar of UBP won a narrow, surprise victory. Tatar supports a separate state for Northern Cyprus, while his opponent, Mustafa Akinci, backs full unification with the south. Thus Tatar’s win exacerbated tensions on the island. The elections took place amid widespread protests and a tanking economy.
Cyprus is divided between the mostly Greek-speaking south and the Turkish-speaking north, and both Greece and Turkey play in the country’s politics.
Ömer Bilge, Hurriyet Daily News (May 2, 2022): Turkish Cyprus PM resigns for 2nd time in 10 days
Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Bulgaria held a presidential election on November 14 along with parliamentary elections – the third this year after no one could form a government following the first two. It appears that the third time was a charm, as a new political party called We Continue the Change (whose founders tout their Harvard credentials) formed a broad coalition.
The elections brought major change, ousting former PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB, which had governed for most of the last 12 years. The country also saw the rise of a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, which came in second in the April elections and first in the July elections. Despite being edged out by We Continue the Change in November, ITN will be part of the new coalition. The other parties in the government will be the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the centrist/center-right Democratic Bulgaria coalition.
Bulgaria is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU); however, it remains the poorest and most corrupt member of the EU. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to influence Bulgaria. Most recently, it cut off gas exports to Bulgaria (and Poland) in retaliation for EU sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. More
David O’Byrne, Al-Monitor (May 4, 2022): Bulgaria looks to Turkey for help with gas shortage: Russia has cut gas exports to Bulgaria, leaving Sofia looking to Ankara, which has some tough decisions to make.
RFE/RL (April 28, 2022): Bulgarian PM, Main Ruling Party Vow Support To Arm Ukraine After Gazprom Cutoff
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022
Iceland Local Elections: May 14, 2022
Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022
Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022
Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)
Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)
Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)
Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)
Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023
Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
This Week
Middle East
May 3, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The port of Tyre, Lebanon. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Vyacheslav Argenberg (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Lebanon has set parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.
Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that the upcoming elections could bring a hint of change.
Arab Reform Initiative (May 2, 2022): The Lebanese diaspora and the upcoming elections: What lessons from the 2018 voting?
The Economist (April 28, 2022): Lebanon goes to the polls amid its worst-ever financial crisis: The system is still rigged in favour of corrupt incumbents against a divided opposition
Dalal Saoud, UPI (April 26, 2022): Lebanon’s first post-collapse elections unlikely to bring desired change
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – date TBD (possibly by June 2022)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. Following the election delay, the political crisis deepened, and there are currently two rival governments.
The UN has urged elections by June 2022. Libya’s parliament had said elections would not take place this year, but the new interim prime minister, Abdelhamid Dbeibah, later said that the elections would happen by June.
Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More
Dilara Aslan Özer, Daily Sabah (May 1, 2022): New Libyan govt can only be declared after vote, former UN envoy says
Edith M. Lederer, AP (April 29, 2022): UN extends Libya mission after US-Russia clash
Reuters (April 26, 2022): Libya’s Parliament-Backed PM Says He Discussed Efforts to Hold Elections With U.S. Officials
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 15, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.
Arab News (May 3, 2022): Tunisia to form committee to write ‘New Republic’ constitution: president
Hanen Jebli, Al-Monitor (May 2, 2022): Tunisian president grants himself power to appoint election authority
AFP (May 2, 2022): Tunisia’s president Saied announces ‘national dialogue,’ while keeping out opposition
Turkey General Elections: By June 18, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Turkey is due for general elections in June 2023, but there have been rumors of possible snap elections, and more than half of Turkish citizens want an early vote.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.
Geoff Bennett and Juliet Fuisz, PBS (May 1, 2022): Why a vocal Turkish activist’s prison sentence is a ‘nail in the coffin’ for free speech
Andrew Wilks, Al-Monitor (April 28, 2022): Opposition head displaces Ankara, Istanbul mayors as Erdogan’s next election rival: Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu has entered the running for the Turkish opposition’s presidential candidate.
Ali Kucukgocmen, Reuters (April 28, 2022): Turkey’s Erdogan says ECHR ruling on jailed philanthropist Kavala no longer applies
Al Jazeera (April 27, 2022): Lawmakers, rights groups urge US to condition aid to Tunisia
Borzou Daragahi, The Independent (April 26, 2022): Life sentence for Turkish activist sends warning to Erdogan’s opponents ahead of 2023 elections: Istanbul court handed an aggravated life sentence to Osman Kavala and 18-year sentences to seven others
AFP (April 26, 2022): France condemns life sentence for Turkey’s Kavala
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Pakistan is due to hold its next general elections by October 12, 2023. However, Prime Minister Imran Khan has surprisingly called for early elections after surviving a no-confidence vote. However, it is unclear when – or whether – the snap elections will take place.
Khan, a former cricket star, came to power following the turbulent 2018 elections, and his time in office has not been calm. In 2020, his party took a major political hit when it failed to win a majority in the Senate, and he has faced several no-confidence threats. Instability has been a characteristic of Pakistan’s politics since its founding. In fact, no prime minister has completed a full term since the country’s founding in 1947.
Pakistan is a geopolitical hotspot, between the conflict in Kashmir and continued heavy military presence and China’s increased presence through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Farhan Bokhari, Benjamin Parkin, and Chloe Cornish, Financial Times (May 3, 2022): Imran Khan plots comeback as Pakistan’s new leaders battle economic woes: Ex-leader’s anti-US rhetoric finds support among population fed up with inflation
Al Jazeera (April 28, 2022): Late PM Benazir Bhutto’s son is Pakistan’s new foreign minister: Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, 33, is scion of Pakistan’s most influential political dynasty.
Yemen Elections: TBD
Yemen has been in a civil war since 2015. A cease-fire was announced on April 2, and subsequently power was transferred from President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi to a new Presidential Leadership Council.
AFP (May 2, 2022): Yemen truce could help reverse humanitarian crisis: UN
Alexandra Stark, War on the Rocks (April 29, 2022): Can the Riyadh Reshuffle Bring Peace to Yemen?
Past Middle East Elections
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.
The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.
The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge.
Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – was thought to be the likely be the kingmaker in the new government. But he is currently refusing to conduct talks with his rivals, resulting in deadlock. More
Guillaume Decamme, AFP (May 3, 2022): Years after IS defeat, northern Iraq struggles to rebuild
Rashid Yahya and Samya Kullab, AP (May 3, 2022): Yazidis, displaced again, fear more strife in Iraqi homeland
AFP (April 30, 2022): Iran-Saudi tensions near end, Iraq PM says
Dilan Sirwan, Rudaw (April 29, 2022): No agreement reached between rival Iraqi Shiite parties, say Sadrists
Shawn Yuan, Al Jazeera (April 28, 2022): Turkey’s military operation causes controversy, division in Iraq
Egypt Parliamentary Elections: October-December 2020
Egypt held elections for both houses of parliament this year. They were widely considered a sham by the opposition, civil society, and the public. More
Al Jazeera (May 1, 2022): Egypt releases three journalists ahead of Eid al-Fitr: Thousands of political prisoners, however, are estimated to remain in Egyptian jails.
AP (April 28, 2022): Prominent Egyptian activist freed after presidential pardon
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: Overdue (delayed from December 24, 2021 – no date set but some have proposed to hold the elections by June 2022)
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022
Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Israel Local Elections: October 2023
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
This Week
Africa
May 2, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A boat ride off of Lido Beach in Mogadishu, Somalia. Photo credit: Flickr/AMISOM Public Information (public domain)
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia, Indirect Presidential Election: By May 17, 2022 (delays possible – preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, parties have agreed to complete the process by February 25, 2022, delayed from February 8, 2021, but are unlikely to meet the deadline. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays are exacerbating the country’s instability. Legislative elections have finally concluded after a slow, delay-ridden process, with the new lawmakers sworn in April. A new date has not been set for the presidential election, but the International Monetary Fund has set May 17 as the deadline, or else Somalia will stop receiving budget support.
Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More
Robert Lansing Institute (May 2, 2022): Somalia: unblocked presidential elections amid risks of deepening crisis
Stratfor (April 28, 2022): In Somalia, Food and Water Woes Risk Boosting al-Shabaab and Derailing Elections
Feisal Omar, Reuters (April 28, 2022): Somalia parliament picks Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur as new speaker
Reuters (April 28, 2022): Somalia: Parliament elects new speaker after security standoff: A power struggle between the prime Minister and president has contributed to the delayed election process in Somalia.
Harun Maruf, Voice of America (April 27, 2022): Somali President, Prime Minister Quarrel Over Election Security
Democratic Republic of the Congo Gubernatorial Elections: May 6, 2022
The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. Before that, some provinces will elect governors on May 6.
The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
The DRC faces several political and security crises.
Radio Okapi (May 2, 2022 – in French): DRC: Campaign begins for governors of some provinces
Nic Hailey, Al Jazeera (May 1, 2022): The failed ‘state of siege’ in eastern DRC should not be extended: There are much more promising strategies that could help bring sustainable peace to the region.
La Croix (April 29, 2022 – in French): DRC: Catholic and Protestant churches troubled by lack of respect for deadlines in the electoral process
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya holds general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Ironically, Kenyatta has endorsed Odinga for this year’s election, against William Ruto, who was formerly his anointed successor.
Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Because of the ongoing crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.
David Malingha, Bloomberg (May 2, 2022): President, Deputy Deride Each Other Months Before Kenya Election
Emma Elversson, The Conversation (May 1, 2022): Drivers of electoral violence in Kenya: red flags to watch out for
Otieno Otieno, The East African (April 30, 2022): Raila and Ruto keep running mate cards close to their chests
Daniel Itai, Washington Blade (April 29, 2022): Murder of lesbian in Kenya sparks outrage across Africa
Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (Delayed – no new date set)
The Central African Republic (CAR) had planned to hold local elections in September 2022, but they have been delayed. If held, these will be the first local elections since 1988, and they follow presidential and partial legislative elections that took place on December 27, 2020 in the midst of a worsening security situation. Rebels disrupted voting in some areas, so consequently, those constituencies held the first round of their legislative elections on March 14, 2021. In addition, some of the constituencies that did vote on December 27 held runoff elections for their legislators.
These elections took place in the context of a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Sectarian clashes have been taking place since 2013. Moreover, Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. More
AFP (April 27, 2022): Central African Republic adopts bitcoin as legal currency
RFI (April 25, 2022 – in French): In the Central African Republic, the re-election of Emmanuel Macron brings forth bitterness and relief
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels while fighting on the front lines. His son, 37-year-old General Mahamat Déby, declared himself interim leader, backed by the military. He dissolved parliament and promised elections within 18 months, by December 2022. However, it is unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote, and elections are riven by lengthy delays, violence, and fraud. More
Africanews with AFP (May 2, 2022): Chad: Junta postpones reconciliation dialogue to a “later” date
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections on February 18, 2023, but some states are due to hold gubernatorial elections before that, including Ekiti and Osun states in 2022.
Potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position, and Nigeria’s two major parties plan to hold presidential nominating contests at the end of May. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short.
The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The Economist (April 28, 2022): Old hopefuls are jostling to succeed Nigeria’s President Buhari: Most Nigerians are younger than 19. Their main candidates are over 70
Patrick Egwu, Reuters Institute (April 26, 2022): As Nigeria approaches the next elections, journalists are increasingly under threat
South Sudan Elections: By March 2023 (planned)
South Sudan plans to hold elections by March 2023, the first since independence in 2011. Salva Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. Additional election delays are possible.
Madhav Joshi, The Conversation (April 26, 2022): Peace in South Sudan hinges on forging a unified military force: but it’s proving hard
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold general elections in July 2023. They will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, governs in an authoritarian, repressive manner.
Most recently, Zimbabwe held by-elections on March 26, 2022 to fill 28 parliamentary seats and 105 local seats. A new opposition party called the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC) won a majority of the seats up for election. CCC is led by Nelson Chamisa, who broke with Zimbabwe’s traditional opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) over internal politics. CCC won 19 parliamentary seats while the ruling ZANU-PF won nine.
However, many concerns remain about the fairness of the upcoming elections.
Voice of America (April 30, 2022 – podcast): Live Talk Special Coverage: Zimbabwe 2022 By-elections
Voice of America (April 30, 2022): Zanu PF Tells EFF Leader Julius Malema to Shut Up on Voting Out Mnangagwa Government
Mozambique Local Elections: October 2023 (due) and General Elections: October 2024 (due)
Mozambique is due to hold local elections in October 2023 and general elections in October 2024. The last elections, in 2019, came amid several crises, including political violence, natural disasters, and an Islamist insurgency.
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. FRELIMO was most recently re-elected in 2019. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique (April 29, 2022): Mozambique: CNE Does Not Have Enough Money for Local Elections
Sudan General Elections: By 2024 (due – unclear following coup)
Sudan plans to hold general elections by 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. Civil servant and diplomat Abdalla Hamdok became prime minister.
However, another coup in October 2021 returned Sudan to military rule. Hamdok resigned. Protests continue and the country’s political future remains uncertain.
Samy Magdy, AP (April 27, 2022): Sudan frees ex-officials in effort to end political impasse
Burkina Faso Elections: TBD, following coup
Burkina Faso is set to hold elections at some point in the future following the recent coup.
On January 24, 2022, a group of soldiers detained President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, dissolved the legislature, and declared that a military junta would control the country moving forward. Subsequently, coup leader Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was sworn in as president.
This coup (which follows coups in nearby Guinea, Chad, and Mali) plunges the country’s political future into even greater uncertainty. Burkina Faso avoided an earlier coup attempt, and some analysts believed that a successful coup was only a matter of time given simmering discontent with Kabore’s handling of the jihadist threat and other issues.
Captain Sidsore Kaber Ouedraogo of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (the name the junta has given itself) says new elections will take place in the future, but has not specified a date. More
Reuters (April 29, 2022): Burkina Faso junta defends three-year plan for transition to constitutional rule
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.
Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More
AFP (May 1, 2022): Guinea junta leader Doumbouya announces 39-month transition to civilian rule
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed to December 2025
Mali had set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup, but the interim government has proposed a delay to December 2025, sparking a backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.
In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (who has since died at age 76, having been in poor health for years), dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.
AFP (May 1, 2022): UN chief calls on juntas in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali to hand power back to civilians
Kemo Cham, The East African (April 25, 2022): France accuses Russia of disinformation campaign in Mali
Past Africa Elections
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional Elections: February 9, 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Cameroon holds elections, but President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, has been in power since 1982, most recently winning re-election in 2018. Elections in the country, including the most recent, have been marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.
Cameroon is in the midst of several other crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Nosmot Gbadamosi, Foreign Policy (April 27, 2022): Biya Bets on Russia: Cameroon’s president signs a security deal with Putin amid war in Ukraine and conflict at home.
Regional
Cobus van Staden, The Africa Report (May 2, 2022: China: The bread-and-butter partner as African investment exceeds US
Erick Mwakibete, The Citizen Tanzania (May 1, 2022): From father to son: Africa’s varied experiences with succession politics
Jalel Harchaoui and John Lechner, Lawfare (May 1, 2022): How Russia’s War in Ukraine Affects Its Meddling in Africa
Teresa Nogueira Pinto, GIS Reports (April 28, 2022): The Sahel trilemma: Africa’s Sahel region has become another arena for competition between the European Union and Russia
New African (April 27, 2022): What is behind the spate of coups in West Africa?
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Democratic Republic of the Congo Gubernatorial Elections: May 6, 2022
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: By May 17, 2022 (delays possible)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022
Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (delayed – no new date set)
Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022
Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023
Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)
South Sudan General Elections: By March 2023 (tentative)
Sierra Leone Presidential Election: June 24, 2023
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)
Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)
Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)
Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Togo Legislative and Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: TBD, following coup
Burkina Faso Elections: TBD, following coup
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
This Week
Americas
April 30, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Galéon Bucanero, a replica of a Spanish galleon, in Cartagena, Colombia. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Laslovarga (CC BY-SA 4.0)
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Upcoming Americas Elections
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia holds a presidential election on May 29, following legislative elections and presidential primaries on March 13. Leftist former guerrilla Gustavo Petro won his primary in a landslide. For a while, he was seen as the favorite to win in May, but more recent polls show a statistical dead heat between Petro and conservative Federico Gutiérrez.
No party won a majority in the legislative elections and centrists did not perform well, exacerbating the country’s polarization.
If Petro wins in May, he will be Colombia’s first leftist president. This election follows recent leftist victories in Honduras, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia and comes ahead of Brazil’s highly polarized election, which leftist former president Lula da Silva is the favorite to win.
Julia Zulver and Jennifer M. Piscopo, Washington Post (April 29, 2022): In Colombia, an activist, feminist lawyer is running for VP: Francia Márquez pledged to speak for marginalized and rural voters. That’s put her in danger.
John Otis, NPR (April 28, 2022): He’s running to be Colombia’s 1st left-wing president. Here’s what he plans to do
Tim Padgett, WLRN 91.3 FM (April 28, 2022): Will Colombia’s Petro build “reservoirs of credibility” — or pull the rug from his cause?
Shauna N. Gillooly, Washington Post (April 28, 2022): Colombia’s elections in May could determine the fate of the peace deal
Joseph Bouchard, City Paper Bogota (April 27, 2022): The geopolitics of Colombia’s historic 2022 election
Michael Stott and Gideon Long, Financial Times (April 26, 2022): Francia Márquez shakes up Colombian politics with bid for vice-presidency: Social activist gives powerful voice to country’s marginalised black community
Benjamin Russell, Americas Quarterly (April 25, 2022): The Evolution of Colombia’s Gustavo Petro: The former Bogotá mayor is making his third run at the presidency and is leading in polls. Has he changed, or has the country?
Frank Holmes, Forbes (April 25, 2022): A Socialist Takeover Of Colombia Would Devastate Its Economy
Mexico Presidential Recall Referendum: April 10, 2022, followed by State Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Six Mexican states hold gubernatorial elections on June 5: Aguascalientes, Durango (also holding local elections), Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Tamaulipas.
These follow Mexico’s first-ever presidential recall election, which took place on April 10. Voters (very few of them – turnout was less than 18 percent) decided not to recall President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO). AMLO, a leftist firebrand, was elected in 2018. Mexican presidents serve a single, non-renewable six-year term. However, AMLO promised voters that he would give them a chance to recall him halfway through his term. Therefore, ironically, the recall referendum was organized by AMLO’s supporters, and many viewed it as a stunt.
Mexico’s high-stakes elections last June (midterm legislative elections, as well as gubernatorial elections in 15 of Mexico’s 31 states, and local elections) had more than 21,000 offices at stake – the biggest elections in Mexico’s history. AMLO’s MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted during the 2021 elections.
Maria Verza, AP (April 28, 2022): Mexico president proposes dramatic electoral reforms
Christine Murray, Financial Times (April 28, 2022): Mexico’s president seeks to tighten grip with electoral overhaul: López Obrador proposes plan to cut funds for political parties and loosen propaganda rules
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
Tom Phillips, The Guardian (April 30, 2022): Is Brazil ready for the next incarnation of President Lula? The 76-year-old former leader, jailed on corruption charges in 2018, is ready to run again and is ahead of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the polls
Reuters (April 30, 2022): Any Bolsonaro attempt to undermine Brazil election should be met with sanctions, ex U.S. diplomat says
Reuters (April 23, 2022): Brazil opposition party files complaint against Bolsonaro’s pardon for ally
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Peru holds local and regional elections on October 2, 2022. These follow last year’s presidential election and are happening in the context of political turmoil.
These elections came on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori alleged fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Reuters (April 28, 2022): Peru’s Ruling Party Turns on Castillo; Calls for President to Step Down in 2023
MercoPress (April 23, 2022): Castillo to seek referendum regarding Constitutional reform in Peru
Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023 (due)
Paraguay held local elections on October 10, 2021. On June 20, many of the political parties held primary elections. The federal government is led by President Mario Abdo Benítez from the conservative Colorado Party, which also won a majority in the lower house of the legislature in the 2018 elections (no party holds a majority in the Senate). Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.
Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. These elections took place in the context of political violence and attacks on candidates. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.
MercoPress (April 28, 2022): Paraguayan left picks presidential candidate
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Argentina is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in October or November 2023.
Argentina held midterm legislative elections in November 2021, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. The ruling Peronists took a major hit, losing control of the legislature for the first time in decades.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – happened in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Nathaniel Janowitz, Vice (April 28, 2022): The Boss of Argentina’s Notorious ‘Monkeys’ Gang Just Got Busted
Buenos Aires Times (April 25, 2022): María Eugenia Vidal: ‘I would like to be Argentina’s president’: National lawmaker reignites speculation over opposition’s 2023 candidate by admitting that she would like to be Argentina’s president.
Past Americas Elections
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
The next presidential election is due in 2024, but some opposition figures hope it will happen early. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, U.S. officials have begun to court the Venezuelan regime.
Argus Media (April 27, 2022): Venezuela opposition rejects talks on US sanctions
Patricia Laya and Nicolle Yapur, Bloomberg (April 26, 2022): Exiled Venezuelan Leader Pushes for Primaries to Confront Maduro
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Maria Puerta Riera, Australian Institute of International Affairs (April 28, 2022): Ortega’s Grip on Power and the Demise of Democracy in Nicaragua
Al Jazeera (April 25, 2022): Nicaragua withdraws from regional bloc OAS after election row: The regional bloc was among several international organisations that slammed the 2021 re-election of President Daniel Ortega.
Regional
Scott B. MacDonald (April 29, 2022): Russia’s Struggle for Hearts and Minds in the Western Hemisphere
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022
Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022
Chile Constitutional Referendum: September 4, 2022
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)
Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022
Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)
Ecuador Regional Elections: February 5, 2023
Jamaica Local Elections: By February 2023
Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
This Week
Asia
April 29, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Hong Kong’s iconic Star Ferry, which is at risk of folding after 142 years in service. Perhaps fitting given the end of Hong Kong’s democracy at Beijing’s hands. Photo credit: Flickr/Ron Reiring (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Hong Kong Chief Executive Election: May 8, 2022 (indirect)
Hong Kong held elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
On May 8, 2022 (delayed from March), an Election Committee consisting of 1463 people – primarily pro-Beijing politicians and business figures – will choose the Chief Executive. Incumbent Carrie Lam has indicated that she will not run for a second term. Former security chief John Lee is the only candidate to replace her. Overall, the process has been characterized by a lack of transparency and a heavy hand from Beijing. More
Louisa Lim, Financial Times (April 29, 2022): Hong Kong, my vanishing city
AP (April 29, 2022): Hong Kong’s John Lee pledges to enact local security law
Almond Li, Hong Kong Free Press (April 26, 2022): Hong Kong nat’l security judge urges speedy trial for 47 democrats, more than a year after most taken into custody
Natalie Wong, Chris Lau, and Gary Cheung, ASEANplus News (April 24, 2022): Hong Kong chief executive election 2022: John Lee recruits 150 political, business heavyweights to steer final campaign push
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, is running for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who is not actually politically aligned with Duterte (in the Philippines, people vote for president and vice president separately, and Robredo ran in the last election on the Liberal Party ticket in opposition to Duterte).
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Richard Heydarian, South China Morning Post (April 30, 2022): What will shape Philippines’ foreign policy post Duterte, and should China be concerned?
Basti Evangelista, Yahoo! Philippines (April 27, 2022): ELECTIONS 2022: Mega Manila is key battleground in presidential race, analyst says
Kaukab Shairani, DW (April 27, 2022): Philippines elections: Why are people wearing pink?
Regine Cabato, Washington Post (April 27, 2022): Is the Philippines ready for another Duterte: Sara Duterte-Carpio appears likely to become the country’s next vice president, but her supporters say she’s very different from her controversial father
Foreign Policy (April 25, 2022): Why Corruption Thrives in the Philippines
Anthony Esguerra, Voice of America (April 25, 2022): Philippines Presidential Election a Rematch Between Late Dictator’s Son, Democratic Leader
Rappler (April 23, 2022): Amid fears of election fraud, 1Sambayan launches HOPE vote checking app
Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022, followed by General Elections
Several sets of elections could take place in Nepal within the next year. Local elections have been set for May 13.
Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Anil Giri, Kathmandu Post (April 29, 2022): Top US official to visit Nepal prior to local elections
Kathmandu Post (April 24, 2022): Everything you need to know about May 13 local polls
Anil Sigdel and Mani Dahal, East Asia Forum (April 22, 2022): US–China rivalry complicates development aid in Nepal
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2022
Australia is holding federal parliamentary elections on May 21, 2022. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls.
This year, Labor, under the leadership of Anthony Albanese, hopes to come back into power after nine years in opposition. More
Kirsty Needham, Reuters (April 27, 2022): Analysis: Solomon Islands pact with China roils Australian PM’s election campaign
Rod McGuirk, AP (April 27, 2022): Australian minister accuses China of election interference
Geoff Hiscock, Nikkei Asia (April 27, 2022): Australia’s republican quandary: how to pick a president: Voters are in no rush to dump the British monarchy, despite demographic change
David Flint, The Spectator (April 23, 2022): Is Albo another Biden? The most crucial election in our history
Thailand, Local Elections in Bangkok and Pattaya: May 22, 2022, and General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Thailand is due to hold general elections by March 23, 2023, but early elections are possible. In addition, various types of local elections are taking place at various times. These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months.
Next up: Bangkok holds its first gubernatorial election in nine years on May 22 (Pattaya also holds local elections that day). In addition, snap general elections are possible. More
Thai PBS World (April 25, 2022): Bangkok gubernatorial candidates step up their campaigns on Sunday
South Korea Local Elections: June 1, 2022
South Korea holds local elections on June 1. These follow the March presidential election, which conservative Yook Seol-yeol former prosecutor general won. He narrowly defeated Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party, the center-left party of incumbent Moon Jae-in. The campaign was nasty and neither major candidate is particularly popular with voters or with his respective party – both won their primaries narrowly.
South Korea is a key United States ally, and the South Korean public broadly supports the alliance. However, Moon has pursued diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea and moved closer to China. This could change under Yoon.
Yosuke Onichi, Nikkei Asia (April 24, 2022): Testing times: South Korean aspiring politicians sit written exam: Brainchild of young party leader, tests come ahead of key local elections
Hyung-A Kim, East Asia Forum (April 23, 2022): Yoon Seok-yeol’s rise from rebel prosecutor to president
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Union of Catholic Asian News (April 28, 2022): Tensions rise in Cambodia ahead of commune elections: Activists remember the killing of environmentalist Chut Vuthy and call for a fresh investigation
Radio Free Asia (April 28, 2022): Cambodia arrests leader of opposition political party who was in hiding
Luke Hunt, The Diplomat (April 27, 2022): Under Kishida, Tokyo Sharpens Its Focus on Cambodia: Prime Minister Hun Sen has requested a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Japan.
Kimseng Men, Voice of America (April 22, 2022): Cambodia Hires DC Firms to Burnish Image, Attract Investment
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Fiji is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. In 2006, Josaia Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama seized power in a coup. Since then, the country has held several sets of elections that Bainimarama has won. Despite concerns about media freedom and political space for the opposition, some observers have deemed the elections credible – Bainimarama has at least brought political stability, making him popular with many Fijians.
Radio New Zealand (April 28, 2022): Fiji election polls point to another tight election race
Inoke Rabonu, Fiji Sun (April 26, 2022): Game On, Elections Campaign Begins
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
Burma is of geopolitical importance because of its location on the Indian Ocean. China has sought to cultivate ties in order to get more access to the Indian Ocean, and simultaneously, western governments have at times pursued warmer relations with the regime.
Rebecca Falconer, Axios (April 27, 2022): Myanmar junta sentences Aung San Suu Kyi to 5 years in prison for corruption
Bloomberg News (April 26, 2022): Myanmar’s Path From Junta Rule to Democracy and Back
Mong Palatino, Global Voices (April 25, 2022): Myanmar activists launch ‘Blue Shirt’ campaign to show solidarity with political prisoners: More than 10,000 political prisoners remain in detention
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand.
Sidhant Sibal, WION (April 28, 2022): Maldives’ Nasheed blames Yameen for anti-India sentiment; calls joining China’s BRI a mistake
Avas (April 27, 2022): Nasheed will contest in the 2023 election: MP Eva
TRT World (April 25, 2022): Why has a movement that wants ‘India Out’ of the Maldives been banned?
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
Bangladesh is due to hold general elections in December 2023. The Awami League (AL) has been in power since 2009 and has been accused of becoming increasingly authoritarian. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party has boycotted recent elections, undercutting their democratic legitimacy.
On the geopolitical front, Bangladesh has risen in importance in recent years in the midst of high economic growth.
Ali Riaz, Foreign Affairs (April 29, 2022): Bangladesh’s Quiet Slide Into Autocracy: The End of a Democratic Success Story
Solomon Islands General Elections: April 2024 (due)
The Solomon Islands general elections are due in April 2024. The last elections took place on April 3, 2019. Manasseh Sogavare, who had previously served several tumultuous terms at different points, was elected prime minister again, ousting Rick Houenipwela, who himself had become prime minister when Sogavare was ousted in a no-confidence motion in 2017. Riots broke out after the elections. Subsequently, the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, a very controversial decision.
The Solomon Islands announced a security deal with China in March 2022. This decision sent geopolitical shockwaves throughout the region.
Michael Smith, Australian Financial Review (April 29, 2022): Solomons PM slams AUKUS as China calls military base ‘fake news’
Brendan Nicholson, Real Clear Defense (April 23, 2022): Opposition Leader Says Solomon Islanders Don’t Want Deal With China
Sri Lanka Presidential Election: September 2024 and Parliamentary Elections: August 2025 (snap elections possible)
Sri Lanka is due to hold elections in 2024 and 2025, but snap elections could happen due to the current political and economic crisis. The current president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, won the 2019 election, which took place in a tense political climate following the 2019 Easter bombings.
Former president Maithripala Sirisena, who had surprisingly defeated Gotabaya’s brother Mahinda Rajapaksa in the 2015 presidential elections, spearheaded a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Mahinda Rajapaksa had built up. However, since Gotabaya took office, he has systematically dismantled those reforms. As a result, Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice.
The current political crisis began with a series of street protests over daily power cuts and food shortages. The opposition has called for fresh elections.
Sri Lanka’s government, dominated by the Sinhalese ethnic group, fought a decades-long civil war with the rebel Tamil Tigers. The war ended in 2009, but tensions reignited in 2019 following the 2019 Easter bombings. Sri Lanka is located strategically in the Indian Ocean. Chinese involvement has raised concerns – Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port has become a textbook example of Chinese debt-trap diplomacy.
Krutika Pathi and Krishan Francis, AP (April 28, 2022): A political reckoning in Sri Lanka as debt crisis grows
Sudha Ramachandran, The Diplomat (April 26, 2022): Sri Lankan President and PM Locked in a Tug-of-War: Under pressure from the people to resign, Gotabaya and Mahinda Rajapaksa are scheming separately, each to sink the other to save his own seat.
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Timor-Leste Presidential Runoff: April 19, 2022
Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) held a presidential election on March 19. Current president Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo, first elected in 2017, trailed former president José Ramos-Horta. Ramos-Horta won the April 19 runoff.
Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although many challenges remain.
Dércio Tsandzana and Fernanda Canofre, Global Voices (April 26, 2022): On Timor-Leste’s 20th independence anniversary, former president Ramos-Horta makes a comeback
Ryan Dagur, UCA News (April 26, 2022): Vatican envoy praises Timor-Leste for peaceful election: Msgr. Sprizzi hopes the country under Jose Ramos-Horta will maintain and build further ties with the Holy See
Grant Wilson, Australian Financial Review (April 26, 2022): The sun is set to rise over East Timor: If Australia does not support East Timor in developing the Greater Sunrise gas field, after the diplomatic mishandling of a security pact with Solomon Islands, China will
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022
Five Indian states held elections in early 2022. These elections served as a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – as well as the opposition ahead of national elections in 2024. In the last national elections, in 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won a “thumping victory, securing a second term in office in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – has done well some subsequent state elections.
In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, the BJP maintained its dominance and won. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, a controversial firebrand Hindu monk, will remain in office. BJP also won re-election in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur. Congress suffered a surprise defeat in Punjab, the one state up for election where it had been in power, to Aam Admi (Common Person) Party, a relatively anti-corruption party that is currently in power in New Delhi’s local government.
Several more states are due to vote before the 2024 general elections.
Bibhudatta Pradhan, Bloomberg (April 27, 2022): Modi Weighs Replacing India’s Religion-Based Laws Before Polls
Tarushi Aswani, The Diplomat (April 27, 2022): Modi Flaunts India’s Grassroots Democracy on Visit to Jammu and Kashmir
The Wire India (April 24, 2022): Hold Polls Soon in J&K: Newspaper Editorials Say PM’s Visit, Announcements Not Enough
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: By May 21, 2022 (due – could take place earlier)
Thailand, Local Elections in Bangkok and Pattaya: May 22, 2022
South Korea Local Elections: June 1, 2022
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
Japan, Gubernatorial Election in Okinawa: September 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
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