Middle East

June 14, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A historic house in Baghdad, Iraq. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Zaid T. Abduljabbar (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022

Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.  Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.

Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.

Reuters (June 13, 2022): Tunisian judge quits electoral commission over president’s sackings of judges

Sami Hamdi, Al Jazeera (June 10, 2022): Tunisia’s president, opposition battle over who will fold first

Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – date TBD (possibly by the end of 2022)

Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. Following the election delay, the political crisis deepened, and there are currently two rival governments.

The UN has urged elections by June 2022. Libya’s parliament had said elections would not take place this year, but the new interim prime minister, Abdelhamid Dbeibah, later said that the elections would happen in 2022.

Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More

U.S. Institute of Peace (June 14, 2022): What’s Next for Libya’s Protracted Conflict?

Samy Magdy, AP (June 12, 2022): UN-brokered talks on Libya elections resume in Cairo

Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Elections: October 1, 2022 (delayed)

Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region plans to hold parliamentary elections on October 1, 2022.

Dana Taib Menmy, The New Arab (June 12, 2022): Iraqi Kurdistan parliamentary elections to be postponed, official says

Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Bahrain is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. Since a 2011 uprising, Bahrain has become increasingly authoritarian and repressive, especially vis a vis the Shi’ite opposition (Bahrain is more than half Shi’hite but ruled by a Sunni royal family). The opposition was barred from participating in the last elections in 2018. Moreover, the monarch has executive power as well as the power to appoint the prime minister and cabinet. Therefore, parliament is generally not very powerful.

Bahrain is an important security partner for the United States. It is designated a Major Non-NATO Ally and hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet and U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (CENTCOM).

Hudhaifa Ebrahim, The Media Line (June 15, 2022): Bahrain’s biggest-ever cabinet reshuffle sees record 4 female ministers: Young blood charged with diversifying kingdom’s income sources, pursuing post-COVID economic recovery.

Turkey General Elections: By June 18, 2023 (snap elections possible)

Turkey is due for general elections in June 2023, but there have been rumors of possible snap elections, and more than half of Turkish citizens want an early vote.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.

Eric Edelman, The Dispatch (June 13, 2022): What Erdoğan Has Wrought?

Bloomberg (June 10, 2022): Turkey Opposition Frets Over Challenger to Erdogan in Vote

AP (June 9, 2022): Turkish President Erdogan says he will run for re-election next year

Sibel Hurtas, Al-Monitor (June 8, 2022): Eroding judicial independence threatens Turkish elections

Past Middle East Elections

Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022

Lebanon held parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats.

The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.

Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that these elections could bring a hint of change.

Nada Homsi, The National UAE (June 13, 2022): Lebanon’s Sunni leadership void could derail naming of prime minister

Omar Boutine, Global Voices (June 12, 2022): The fall of the House of Arslan: How a Lebanese political newcomer ousted a dynasty

Dr. Elie Abouaoun, U.S. Institute of Peace (June 8, 2022): Lebanon’s Election Offers Lessons for Now and the Future

Barak Ravid, Axios (June 8, 2022): U.S. deeply concerned as Israel-Lebanon maritime dispute intensifies

Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021

Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.

The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.

The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge.

Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – was thought to be the likely be the kingmaker in the new government. But he is currently refusing to conduct talks with his rivals, resulting in deadlock. More

Shawn Yuan, Al-Jazeera (June 15, 2022): Sadrists quit Iraq’s parliament, but al-Sadr isn’t going away: The Sadrist bloc’s resignation from parliament throws up a number of scenarios, including new elections in Iraq

Abbas Kadhim, Atlantic Council (June 14, 2022): Muqtada al-Sadr just issued a mass resignation decree. Where does Iraq go from here?

Thanassis Cambanis, World Politics Review (June 14, 2022): Sadr Could Break Iraq’s Political System—for Better and Worse

Yesar Al-Maleki, Middle East Institute (June 14, 2022): Iraq once again leaps into the void, but not before political elites secure funding

Qassim Abdul-Zahra, AP (June 13, 2022): Iraqi leaders vow to move ahead after dozens quit parliament

Qassim Abdul-zahra and Samya Kullab, AP (June 9, 2022): No way out as Iraq’s dangerous post-election impasse deepens

Iran Presidential and Local Elections: June 18, 2021

Iran held a presidential election on June 18, 2021, with concurrent local elections. While Iran is far from a free country, and the elections are largely rigged, voters have in the past had a degree of choice. However, this year’s election was even more rigged than usual. The Guardian Council (which must approve all candidacies) allowed seven candidates on the ballot and mostly excluded moderates and establishment figures, among them a number of prominent names. This seemed to be calculated to clear the way for hardline judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi to win, and he did in fact win. 

Raisi’s win complicates things for the Biden administration, which is seeking to restore the nuclear deal that the Trump administration left. More

AFP (June 10, 2022): Iran’s nuclear tactics leaves Biden with tough choices

Jonathan Harounoff, Haaretz (June 9, 2022): Crazy Inflation, Stalled Diplomacy: Iran Marks One Year of President Raisi: Experts say President Ebrahim Raisi has fallen short of economic promises since replacing Hassan Rohani, but a last-minute breakthrough in nuclear talks could yet mark a turning point

Danielle Pletka, The Dispatch (June 9, 2022): Bad News for Biden: Congress Cooling on Idea of an Iran Deal: The Senate passed a non-binding resolution opposing sanctions relief for the IRGC and insisting that any deal address state-sponsored terrorism

Israel Parliamentary Elections, Take 4: March 23, 2021

On March 23, 2021, Israel held its fourth general election in two years after the collapse of the unity government of Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. Neither Netanyahu’s allies nor his opponents won a majority. Netanyahu, whose conservative Likud party won the most seats, had the first chance to form a coalition, but he failed. Subsequently, Yair Lapid from the centrist Yesh Atid formed a broad coalition with conservative Naftali Bennett, with Bennett as prime minister for a time before rotating the position to Lapid. A number of other parties are in the coalition, which passed a Knesset vote on June 14, thus ending Netanyahu’s 12 years in office. However, the coalition remains tenuous and early elections are possible.

Local elections in Jerusalem are due on October 31, 2023 More

Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Post (June 14, 2022): Elections soon? A bill to dissolve the Knesset to be voted on next week: If a new Likud bill passes an election would be held in Israel on October 25

Times of Israel (June 14, 2022): Poll shows a majority of Israeli public wants an end to Bennett government

Amichai Stein, Atlantic Council (June 9, 2022): Israel, guess who’s back? Netanyahu is back again

Mazal Mualem, Al-Monitor (June 9, 2022): Israel’s Lapid courts Arab parties with eye toward early elections

Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019

Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.

Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.

Akmal Dawi, Voice of America (June 8, 2022): Taliban Welcome, Others Criticize Return of Former Afghan Officials

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: Overdue (delayed from December 24, 2021 – no date set but some have proposed to hold the elections by June 2022)

Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022

Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022

Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022

Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023

Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023

Israel Local Elections: October 2023

Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023

United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)

Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled

Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19

Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here. 

Africa

June 13, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

Street art in Lagos, Nigeria. Nigeria’s major political parties will field well-known candidates in the 2023 elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Oluwaseyi Gbadebo (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Republic of the Congo Legislative and Local Elections: July 10, 2022

The Republic of the Congo (sometimes called Congo-Brazzaville) will hold legislative and local elections on July 10, 2022. These follow last year’s presidential election. Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been president almost continuously since 1979 and rules with an iron fist, won re-election. Elections have not been free or fair. More

RFI (): Congo-B: the final lists for the legislative elections have been released, big duels are looming

Senegal Legislative Elections: July 31, 2022

Senegal holds legislative elections on July 31, 2022, following local elections earlier this year. The next presidential election is due in 2024.

Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.

In the local elections, the opposition won in Dakar (which was already an opposition stronghold) and the southern city of Ziguinchor, where Sonko was elected mayor. Several candidates close to Sall, including health minister Abdoulaye Diouf Sarr, lost their races.

A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. More

Lauriane Noelle Vofo Kana, with AFP (June 9, 2022): Senegal’s opposition calls for the Interior Minister to resign after rejection of electoral list

Africanews with AFP (June 8, 2022): Senegal: demonstration against rejection of opposition electoral list

Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022

Kenya holds general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Ironically, Kenyatta has endorsed Odinga for this year’s election, against William Ruto, who was formerly his anointed successor.

Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.

Because of the ongoing crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.

David Pilling, Financial Times (June 13, 2022): Kenya’s political titans gear up for electoral fight: Voters in east African powerhouse hope for change in one of year’s most crucial polls

Al Jazeera (June 10, 2022): TikTok videos stoke tensions ahead of Kenya vote – Mozilla report

International Crisis Group (June 9, 2022): Kenya’s 2022 Election: High Stakes

Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 24, 2022

Angola holds presidential and legislative elections on August 24, 2022. The country has not to date held free elections. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, has been in power since since independence in 1975. For 38 years, the MPLA’s José Eduardo Dos Santos ruled Angola with an iron fist. His regime engaged in rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Dos Santos’s successor, João Lourenço, has enacted some reforms and sought to curtail corruption, but many issues remain. Moreover, local elections (the country’s first) have been delayed repeatedly, at times sparking protests. The political climate remains tense.

However, MPLA’s vote share has been steadily decreasing with each successive election: it received 81 percent of the vote in 2008, 72 percent in 2012, and 61 percent in 2017. For the upcoming elections, the three main opposition parties will back a single presidential candidate: Adalberto Costa Junior, leader of UNITA, the main opposition party. There are hopes that this could pave the way for a more democratic future for Angola.

Angola is one of the biggest oil producers in Africa. More

Albano Agostinho Troco, World Politics Review (June 8, 2022): After Failing on Reforms, Angola’s Lourenco Opts for Repression

Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)

Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, who seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, 2021, he was killed by rebels while fighting on the front lines. His son, 37-year-old General Mahamat Déby, declared himself interim leader, backed by the military. He dissolved parliament and promised elections within 18 months, by December 2022. However, it is unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote, and elections are riven by lengthy delays, violence, and fraud. More

AFP (June 7, 2022): Chad Opposition Leaders Get One-year Suspended Terms

Guinea-Bissau Snap Parliamentary Elections: By the end of 2022

Guinea-Bissau’s president has dissolved parliament and called for snap elections by the end of 2022.

In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats, voting in Aristide Gomes as prime minister. Subsequently, Umaro Sissoco Embaló won the November 2019 presidential election, defeating incumbent José Mário Vaz and 10 other candidates.

Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Although analysts believed that the March 2019 legislative elections improved the situation, the country regressed once again at the end of October 2019, when Vaz fired Gomes, and Gomes refused to leave office – the third government dissolution in two years.

There is an ever-present risk of a coup (and in fact, one was attempted in January 2022).

AFP (June 11, 2022): Guinea-Bissau President Sacks Three Ministers Just After One Day

Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections on February 18, 2023, but some states are due to hold gubernatorial elections before that, including Ekiti and Osun states in 2022.

In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.

Felix Chidozie, The Conversation (June 12, 2022): Nigeria has failed to marry its rich cultural diversity and democracy. Can it be done?

World Politics Review (June 10, 2022): Nigeria’s Presidential Candidates Are a Blast From the Past

Idayat Hassan, African Arguments (June 9, 2022): Nigeria elections 2023: And so the countdown begins

David Pilling, Financial Times (June 8, 2022): Nigeria’s presidential election to be fought by wealthy political insiders: Ruling party selects kingpin Bola Tinubu after main opposition chose former vice-president Atiku Abubakar as its candidate

Macdonald Dzirutwe, Reuters (June 8, 2022): Nigeria ruling party picks ex-governor of Lagos Tinubu to run for president

Cristina Krippahl, DW (June 8, 2022): More violence feared in Nigeria as elections approach

Samuel Oyewole, The Conversation (June 7, 2022): There’s violence every election season in Nigeria: what can be done to stop it

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)

Zimbabwe is due to hold general elections in July 2023. They will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, governs in an authoritarian, repressive manner.

Most recently, Zimbabwe held by-elections on March 26, 2022 to fill 28 parliamentary seats and 105 local seats. A new opposition party called the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC) won a majority of the seats up for election. CCC is led by Nelson Chamisa, who broke with Zimbabwe’s traditional opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) over internal politics. CCC won 19 parliamentary seats while the ruling ZANU-PF won nine.

However, many concerns remain about the fairness of the upcoming elections.

Kudzai Chimhangwa, Global Voices (June 13, 2022): How Artificial Intelligence could influence Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections: Zimbabwe’s use of Chinese biometric voter registration will affect election credibility

Lenin Ndebele, News24 (June 13, 2022): Police ask politicians not to incite violence following murder of Zimbabwe opposition activist

Nokuthaba Dlamini, Zimbabwe Independent (June 9, 2022): Why fewer Zimbabweans are voting

Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)

Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is an absolute monarchy. The country does hold parliamentary elections, but the parliament does not actually have much power, and the elections are tightly controlled, without much choice for voters.

On June 20, 2021, a series of protests calling for democratic reform began. Protests continue.

Hoolo ‘Nyane, The Conversation (June 9, 2022): What Lesotho can teach Eswatini and South Africa about key political reforms

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Liberia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in October 2023. The country’s 2017 election brought the first peaceful transition of power since 1944, but Liberia still faces some challenges as it seeks to consolidate democracy. More

Henry Karmo, Front Page Africa (June 10, 2022): ECOWAS Concerned about 2023 Elections in Liberia, Other Countries

Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)

The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. These follow gubernatorial elections, which took place on May 6, 2022.

The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.

When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.

The DRC faces severe political and security crises.

DW (June 7, 2022): Belgium’s king arrives in DR Congo on difficult but historic visit

Barbara Moens, Politico (June 7, 2022): Belgian king’s Congo challenge: Don’t do anything to cause trouble

South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)

South Africa is due to hold general elections in May 2024.

Dubbed the “Rainbow Nation” by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, South Africa inspired the world with its nonviolent transition from apartheid in 1994. Since the end of apartheid and the subsequent victory of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nelson Mandela, the African National Congress (ANC) has been South Africa’s dominant political party, winning every election since then.

However, in the local elections on November 1, 2021, which took place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption, the ANC had its worst election result since the end of apartheid, gaining less than 50 percent of the vote.

As one of the biggest economies in Africa and the most powerful state in southern Africa, South Africa plays a major role in the politics and geopolitics of the continent.  More

Hoolo ‘Nyane, The Conversation (June 12, 2022): Electoral reform: finding African solutions to African problems

Dirk Kotze, The Conversation (June 8, 2022): South Africa is in search of a fairer electoral system. But what’s been tabled is flawed

Sudan General Elections: By 2024 (due – unclear following coup)

Sudan plans to hold general elections by 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. Civil servant and diplomat Abdalla Hamdok became prime minister.

However, another coup in October 2021 returned Sudan to military rule. Hamdok resigned. Protests continue and the country’s political future remains uncertain.

Noha Elhennawy, AP (June 10, 2022): Sudan anti-coup group sits with generals for the first time

Hamza Hendawi, The National UAE (June 8, 2022): Sudan’s UN-backed national dialogue opens despite boycott by major players

Africanews with AP (June 8, 2022): Talks to end Sudan crisis begin as anti-coup groups boycott

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed to December 2025

Mali had set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup, but the interim government has proposed a delay to December 2025, sparking a backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.

In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (who has since died at age 76, having been in poor health for years), dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.

Andrew Lebovich and Theodore Murphy, Foreign Policy Research Institute (June 13, 2022): Russia’s long shadow in the Sahel

Camille Pauvarel and Africanews (June 12, 2022): Mali’s junta creates a body in charge of suggesting a new Constitution

Kemo Cham, The East African (June 11, 2022): Ecowas ‘softening’ stance on Mali, Summit outcome shows

Reuters (June 9, 2022): US Urges Malian Transition Government to Take Steps Towards Elections

Reuters (June 8, 2022): West African bloc says it regrets Mali’s 24-month transition decision

Marie Jourdain and Petr Tůma, Atlantic Council (June 7, 2022): As Europe withdraws from Mali, Russia gets the upper hand

Past Africa Elections

Somalia, Indirect Presidential Election: May 15, 2022

Somalia finally held its long-delayed presidential election on May 15, 2022. Former president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who served from 2012 to 2017 before losing re-election, was elected, defeating incumbent Mohamed “Farmaajo.”

The Horn of Africa country does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. The elections were delayed, and Farmaajo remained in office beyond the end of his term, which created a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.

An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays exacerbated the country’s instability. Legislative elections have finally concluded after a slow, delay-ridden process, with the new lawmakers sworn in April. A new date has not been set for the presidential election, but the International Monetary Fund has set May 17 as the deadline, or else Somalia will stop receiving budget support.

Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More

Abdolgader Mohamed Ali, The New Arab (June 13, 2022): Why are US troops returning to Somalia?

Ayah Aman, Al-Monitor (June 9, 2022): Egypt treads cautiously with reelected Somali president

Mohamed Sheikh Nor, Voice of America (June 9, 2022): New Somali President Inaugurated, Warns of Famine

Fathi Mohamed Ahmed, The Guardian (June 8, 2022): Mogadishu shops shuttered as soaring food prices add to desperation in Somalia

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional Elections: February 9, 2020 (delayed from October 2019)

Cameroon holds elections, but President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, has been in power since 1982, most recently winning re-election in 2018. Elections in the country, including the most recent, have been marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.

Cameroon is in the midst of several other crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Nana Kamsukom, Journal du Cameroun (June 7, 2022): Cameroon- MRC: Michelle Ndoki Seeks To Replace Maurice Kamto

Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022

Senegal Legislative Elections: July 31, 2022

Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 10, 2022

Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022

Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 24, 2022

Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022

Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (delayed – no new date set)

Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)

Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022

Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)

Guinea-Bissau Snap Parliamentary Elections: By the end of 2022

Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023

Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023

Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)

South Sudan General Elections: By March 2023 (tentative)

Sierra Leone Presidential Election: June 24, 2023

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023

Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)

Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)

Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)

Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)

Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)

Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)

Togo Legislative and Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)

Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: TBD, following coup

Burkina Faso Elections: TBD, following coup

Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Americas

June 11, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

Street art in Bogotá, Colombia. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Pedro Szekely (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Colombia Presidential Runoff: June 19, 2022

Colombia held the first round of its presidential election on May 29. Leftist former guerrilla Gustavo Petro took first place and will face populist real estate mogul Rodolfo Hernández in the runoff, who took second place in an upset as conservative Federico Gutiérrez was widely expected to advance. For a while, Petro was seen as the favorite, but more recent polls show the result is far from preordained.

No party won a majority in the legislative elections and centrists did not perform well, exacerbating the country’s polarization.

If Petro wins in May, he will be Colombia’s first leftist president. This election follows recent leftist victories in Honduras, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia and comes ahead of Brazil’s highly polarized election, which leftist former president Lula da Silva is the favorite to win. Some have warned that Russia has been sowing disinformation in support of Petro’s candidacy, hoping that he would be hostile to the United States.

Tracy Wilkinson, Los Angeles Times (June 11, 2022): Significant shift expected in relations between U.S., longtime Latin American ally Colombia

Andrea Jaramillo and Oscar Medina, Bloomberg (June 10, 2022): Colombia’s Election Is Too Close to Call Nine Days Ahead of Vote

Americas Quarterly (June 9, 2022 – podcast): AQ Podcast: Luis Alberto Moreno on Colombia’s Elections and Latin America’s Upside

Chile Constitutional Referendum: September 4, 2022

Chile will hold a constitutional referendum on September 4, 2022, following over a year of meetings of the Constitutional Convention, which was elected in May 2021. The constitutional process began in response to a series of violent protests and riots in 2019.

The referendum follows last year’s presidential and legislative elections. Far-left socialist former student leader Gabriel Boric defeated Jose Antonio Kast, a far-right legislator, in the runoff. Although results of the July 18 presidential primaries seemed to indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation, the center-right candidate from former president Sebastián Pińera’s coalition did not even make the runoff.

However, the legislative elections were a bit more complicated. Piñera’s Chile Podemos Más coalition won the most seats in the Senate, and the Chamber of Deputies is split nearly evenly between right and left-leaning members. These results will potentially constrain Boric’s ability to pursue a far-left agenda. All newly-elected officials took office in March 2022.

The 2021 elections took place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. The Constitutional Convention consists overwhelmingly of left-wing members and could potentially be out of step with the broader Chilean electorate. Because voting in the referendum is mandatory, the new constitution may not be approved.

Missy Ryan, Washington Post (June 9, 2022): U.S. missing opportunities with Latin America, Chile’s leader says

Reuters (June 9, 2022): In Chile, indecision rules while voters are divided on new constitution -poll

Dr Rainer Zitelmann, Foundation for Economic Education (June 8, 2022): Will Capitalist Chile Go the Same Way as Venezuela?

Jon Lee Anderson, The New Yorker (June 6, 2022): Can Chile’s young president reimagine the Latin American left?

Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022

Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. 

As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More

Steven Grattan, Reuters (June 8, 2022): Poll shows Brazil’s Lula maintains strong lead in presidential race

Cristiane Lucchesi, Felipe Marques, and Rachel Gamarski, Bloomberg (June 8, 2022): Brazil Bankers Cringe at Both Choices in October Election

AP (June 7, 2022): Biden will meet with Brazil’s president Bolsonaro amid friction, election worries: Analysts and opposition lawmakers in Brazil worry Bolsonaro is laying the groundwork to reject election results should he fail to secure a second presidential term

Bryan Harris, Financial Times (June 7, 2022): Social media platforms crack down on fake news ahead of Brazil election

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)

Argentina is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in October or November 2023.

Argentina held midterm legislative elections in November 2021, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. The ruling Peronists took a major hit, losing control of the legislature for the first time in decades.

Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – happened in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.

Stratfor (June 9, 2022): Argentina: IMF Completes First Review of Debt Deal at Staff Level

Venezuela Presidential Election: Due in 2024

The next presidential election is due in 2024, but some opposition figures hope it will happen early. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, U.S. officials have begun to court the Venezuelan regime. Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. These followed the December 2020 legislative elections, which most of the opposition boycotted (opposition parties did participate in the 2021 local elections).

Venezuela’s political, constitutional, and humanitarian crises have been going on for years. The country became an authoritarian state under the now-deceased Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and completely transformed the country from a prosperous democracy to a leftist dictatorship. His successor, Nicolás Maduro, has continued on that path. Socialist economic policies have destroyed the economy. Although Venezuela is a major oil producer, 90 percent of Venezuelans cannot afford sufficient food and many have fled. Moreover, the capital, Caracas, has become one of the most violent cities in the world.

Nonetheless, Venezuela’s opposition is active and occasionally makes gains.

Authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran back Maduro and most of the free world backs the opposition.

Nora Gámez Torres, Miami Herald (June 10, 2022): U.S. official explains why Juan Guaidó didn’t get an invite to the Summit of the Americas

Patsy Widakuswara, Voice of America (June 8, 2022): Biden Extends Support, Not Summit Invitation, to Venezuela’s Guaido

Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed

Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.

Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum). Prime Minister Ariel Henry is now leading the country, and has said he will hold elections, but has not specified a date.

Keith Mines, Peter Hakim, Georges Fauriol, and Enrique Ter Horst, U.S. Institute of Peace (June 9, 2022): How to Break the Stalemate in Haiti: The country needs a national dialogue to address a trio of deteriorating political, economic and security crises

Past Americas Elections

Mexico, State Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022

Six Mexican states held gubernatorial elections on June 5: Aguascalientes, Durango (also holding local elections), Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Tamaulipas. The party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won four out of six of them. AMLO, a left-wing populist, was first elected in 2018 in a vote that upended Mexico’s historically-dominant party system. Since taking office, he has sought to consolidate power and taken actions that have raised concerns about his commitment to democracy.

Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted during the 2021 midterm elections (which were the biggest elections in Mexico’s history, with over 21,000 offices at stake).

Michael Stott and Christine Murray, Financial Times (June 12, 2022): Mexico elections chief sounds alarm over López Obrador’s ‘reform’ plan: President wants to overhaul independent election body ahead of contests in 2024

AP (June 6, 2022): Mexico president’s party wins 4 of 6 governorships on ballot

Elliot Spagat, Joshua Goodman, and Chris Megerian, AP (June 6, 2022): In blow to Biden, Mexican president to skip Americas Summit

Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022, followed by other provincial and local elections this year

Canada holds several sets of provincial and local elections this year.

Most recently: Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, held provincial elections on June 2, 2022. The Progressive Conservatives, under populist leader Doug Ford, won a second term in a landslide. Ford made an appeal to union workers and other blue-collar voters and managed to flip seats previously held by the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP).

These follow the September 2021 snap federal elections, which took place two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hoped to win a majority for his Liberals. His gamble did not pay off. He ended up remaining in power, but once again helming a minority government, this time with a confidence-and-supply deal with the NDP. The arrangement could bring stability until 2025, when the next elections are due.

Maura Forrest, Politico (June 10, 2022): What Doug Ford’s blue-collar victory means for Canada’s progressives

Andy Blatchford, Politico (June 8, 2022): O’Toole blames China for Conservative election results: “We lost eight or nine seats to foreign interference,” former leader says during leadership postmortem

Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021

Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.

Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).

McGill International Review (June 10, 2022): The Everlasting Fight for Democracy in Nicaragua

Bolivia General Election Re-Run: October 18, 2020

Bolivian politics are turbulent, polarized, and chaotic. In the October 2019 elections, left-wing populist President Evo Morales ran for a controversial fourth term and declared himself the winner, after defying a referendum on presidential term limits. Officials annulled the results in the face of credible evidence of vote-rigging. The election was re-run in October 2020, but during the interim, conservative opposition leader and then-Senate vice president Jeanine Áñez declared herself interim president.

Subsequently, socialist Luis Arce won the October 2020 re-run. Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities during the 2021 local elections.

These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez, who was recently sentenced to prison in a move the opposition slammed as politically motivated. More

AP (June 11, 2022): Bolivia’s Jeanine Anez, who took power after chaotic election, sentenced to 10 years in prison

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Colombia Presidential Runoff: June 19, 2022

Grenada General Elections: June 23, 2022

Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022

Saint Kitts and Nevis Snap Elections: By August 2022

Chile Constitutional Referendum: September 4, 2022

Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022

Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)

Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022

Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)

Ecuador Regional Elections: February 5, 2023

Jamaica Local Elections: By February 2023

Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)

Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)

Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set

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Asia

June 10, 2022

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A street in New Delhi, India. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Igor Ovsyannykov (CC0 1.0)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

India Presidential Election (by Parliament): July 18, 2022

India’s parliament will vote for a president on July 18, 2022, but in India’s parliamentary system, this largely a ceremonial role.

In the last parliamentary elections, in 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won a “thumping victory, securing a second term in office in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – has done well some subsequent state elections. The next general elections are due in 2024, and a number of states hold elections between now and then. State elections matter because much of policymaking happens at the state level.

While India was nonaligned during the Cold War, it has recently ramped up its competition with China and moved closer to other democratic powers, including forming the Quad security dialogue with the United States, Australia, and Japan.

Bibhudatta Pradhan, Bloomberg (June 9, 2022): India’s Lawmakers to Vote in Presidential Elections on July 18

Aishwarya Paliwal, India Today (June 4, 2022): Poll body begins work for first election in Jammu and Kashmir after electoral map redrawn: The Election Commission has begun work for the J&K elections after the delimitation commission submitted its report. The elections will likely be held in November or after March next year

Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: Beginning July 16, 2022 (delayed following death of deputy prime minister)

Papua New Guinea holds parliamentary and local elections this summer. The start date was delayed due to the death of the deputy prime minister.

Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. Current prime minister James Marape came into power in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years.

Papua New Guinea’s parliament currently has no women – it is one of only three all-male parliaments in the world. However, efforts are being made to elect women this year.

Caitlyn McKenzie and Ben Connable, Lowy Institute (June 7, 2022): PNG’s elections: dangers
that lie on social media

Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)

Japan holds elections for half of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on July 25, 2022. These follow general elections that took placeon October 31, a bit earlier than the November deadline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, won another term in office, despite somewhat decreased approval ratings in recent months. Former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, who won the LDP’s pre-election leadership contest after former prime minister Yoshihide Suga decided not to run for re-election, was thus elected prime minister.

The upper house elections are important because a win for LDP would bring more political stability and reduce the chances of snap general elections.

AFP (June 9, 2022): Japan elected to UN Security council for two years

Michael MacArthur Bosack, Japan Times (June 7, 2022): Five things to know about the LDP going into election: Kishida Cabinet’s poll numbers are the best for a prime minister in nearly a decade

Kana Inagaki in Tokyo and Christian Davies, Financial Times (June 7, 2022): ‘Now or never’: Japan and South Korea seek a relationship reset

Reuters (June 5, 2022): Japan’s Kishida Considers Joining NATO Summit -Sources

Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022

Taiwan, a robust democracy, has scheduled “nine-in-one” local elections for November 26, 2022. Voters will elect nine categories of local officials.

The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948.

The next presidential and legislative elections are due in 2024. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.

Reuters (June 6, 2022): Don’t call us pro-China, Taiwan opposition chief says in U.S.

Nepal General Elections: Possibly in 2022

Several sets of elections could take place in Nepal within the next year. Local elections took place on May 13, 2022.

Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. The main political factions are the various Maoist parties, which tend to lean toward China geopolitically, and the social democratic Nepali Congress, which tends to lean toward India. Congress currently heads the national government.

Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023.

In the local elections, the ruling Congress alliance won the most seats. However, rapper (and structural engineer) Balendra “Balen” Shah won the mayoral race in Kathmandu, the first-ever independent candidate to do so.

Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More

Biswas Baral, The Diplomat (June 8, 2022): What’s the Status of the Much-Discussed China-Nepal Railway?

India Blooms News Service (June 8, 2022): Nepal: Tibetan refugees elect local leaders in Kathmandu

Binod Ghimire, Kathmandu Post (June 7, 2022): Will Parliament get more independent lawmakers, after local election results?

Anil Giri, Kathmandu Post (June 5, 2022): Buoyed by success of local polls, Deuba for holding elections by end of November

Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)

Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.

Burma is of geopolitical importance because of its location on the Indian Ocean. China has sought to cultivate ties in order to get more access to the Indian Ocean, and simultaneously, western governments have at times pursued warmer relations with the regime.

Banyar Aung, The Irrawaddy (June 7, 2022): Junta’s Election Next Year Unlikely to End Myanmar’s Crisis

Han Htoo Khant Paing and Richard Roewer, The Diplomat (June 7, 2022): Fighting the Fear: The Execution of Members of Myanmar’s Opposition Must be Stopped

Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)

Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.

The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand.

Nike Ching, Voice of America (June 9, 2022): US Boosts Asia Diplomacy to Address Growing Competition With China

Avas (June 9, 2022): Coalition partner JP to contest 2023 elections

Edition Maldives (June 8, 2022): President Solih for the first time reveals plans to run for second term

Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 14, 2024 and Provincial Elections: November 27, 2024

Indonesia has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for February 14, 2024, followed by provincial elections on November 27, 2024, ending speculation that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would seek to delay the election and extend his term.

In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics. More

Deasy Simandjuntak, East Asia Forum (June 10, 2022): Looking ahead to Indonesia’s 2024 elections

Sri Lanka Presidential Election: September 2024 and Parliamentary Elections: August 2025 (snap elections possible)

Sri Lanka is due to hold elections in 2024 and 2025, but snap elections could happen due to the current political and economic crisis. The current president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, won the 2019 election, which took place in a tense political climate following the 2019 Easter bombings.

Former president Maithripala Sirisena, who had surprisingly defeated Gotabaya’s brother Mahinda Rajapaksa in the 2015 presidential elections, spearheaded a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Mahinda Rajapaksa had built up. However, since Gotabaya took office, he has systematically dismantled those reforms. As a result, Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice.

The current political crisis began with a series of street protests over daily power cuts and food shortages. The opposition has called for fresh elections. In an attempt to stabilize the country, Rajapaksa installed his former rival Ranil Wickremesinghe as prime minister and called for a unity government. Wickremesinghe has served as prime minister several times before, and is broadly liberal and pro-democracy. He has called for greater ties with India, in contrast to Rajapaksa’s moves toward China.

Sri Lanka’s government, dominated by the Sinhalese ethnic group, fought a decades-long civil war with the rebel Tamil Tigers. The war ended in 2009, but tensions reignited in 2019 following the 2019 Easter bombings. Sri Lanka is located strategically in the Indian Ocean. Chinese involvement has raised concerns – Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port has become a textbook example of Chinese debt-trap diplomacy. 

Alasdair Pal and Devjyot Ghoshal, Reuters (June 8, 2022): Brothers at odds, but ruling family still holds key to Sri Lanka’s future

Anusha Ondaatjie and Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Bloomberg (June 6, 2022): Sri Lanka President Vows to Finish Term, Won’t Run for Re-Election

Malaysia Early General Elections: Expected

Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states.

The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos.

Malaysia sits in a key geopolitical location, including the crucial chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, through which approximately 12 million barrels of oil transit each day, in addition to many other thigns.

Guanie Lim and Keng Khoon Ng, Carnegie Endowment (June 8, 2022): How Malaysian Politics Shaped Chinese Real Estate Deals and Economic Development

Norshahril Saat, Channel News Asia (June 6, 2022): Commentary: By not rushing Malaysia election, Ismail Sabri charts his own course

Ömer Faruk Yildiz, East Asia Forum (June 4, 2022): Why Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional is pushing for a snap election

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)

Cambodia held local elections on June 5, 2022 and is due to hold general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”

The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.

David Hutt, The Diplomat (June 9, 2022): Putting a Positive Spin on Cambodia’s Local Election: For the first time, an opposition party not led by a magnetic political personality has made inroads

Radio Free Asia (June 9, 2022): Cambodian local elections legitimized resurgent opposition party, exiled founder says

Prak Chan Thul, Reuters (June 6, 2022): Cambodia’s ruling party wins local commune elections but new opposition gains

Sopheng Cheang, AP (June 4, 2022): Cambodians vote in local election amid intimidation, threats

South Korea Local Elections: June 1, 2022, following Presidential Election: March 9, 2022

South Korea held local elections on June 1. These follow the March presidential election, which conservative Yook Seol-yeol former prosecutor general won. He narrowly defeated Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party, the center-left party of incumbent Moon Jae-in. The campaign was nasty and neither major candidate is particularly popular with voters or with his respective party – both won their primaries narrowly. The conservatives also won the local elections.

South Korea is a key United States ally, and the South Korean public broadly supports the alliance. However, Moon has pursued diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea and moved closer to China. This could change under Yoon.

Yosuke Onchi, Nikkei Asia (June 9, 2022): South Korea’s Yoon kick-starts diplomacy for reboot with Japan: Foreign Minister Park plans visit in June, after ruling party electoral victory

Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2022

Australia held federal parliamentary elections on May 21, 2022. Following the elections, Labor, under the leadership of Anthony Albanese, came back into power after nine years in opposition, defeating Scott Morrison’s center-right Liberal Party

Much of the debate focused on China’s growing presence in the Pacific, including a potential base in the Solomon Islands, which are very close to Australia. More

Adrian Beaumont, The Conversation (June 8, 2022): How did the polls perform in the 2022 election? Better, but not great; also a Senate update

Anthony Fensom, The Diplomat (June 7, 2022): Australia’s New Government Faces an Economic Trial-by-Fire

Luke Hunt, Voice of America (June 5, 2022): Albanese to Maintain Australia’s Strong Stance on China

Nic Fildes, Financial Times (June 5, 2022): Australia accuses China of intercepting surveillance plane: Canberra says action occurred over South China Sea days after Anthony Albanese elected PM

Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022

Philippines held general elections on May 9, 2022. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator, won in a landslide, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Although liberal forces, led by Vice President Leni Robredo, put in a valiant effort, Marcos prevailed, returning his family to power.

This follows the 2016 victory of populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte, who subsequently governed with an iron fist. Though Philippines presidents cannot run for a second term, critics feared that he would seek to consolidate illiberalism. His daughter, Sara Duterte, won the 2022 vice presidential election.

The Marcos family ruled the country for 21 years (including 14 years under martial law), and fell in the 1986 People Power Revolution. Nonetheless, since then, political dynasties have remained a potent force in Philippines politics.

While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.

Richard Heydarian, Nikkei Asia (June 7, 2022): Philippines’ Marcos must not squander his family’s second chance: Fully embracing good governance would be an important first step

Timor-Leste Presidential Runoff: April 19, 2022

Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) held a presidential election on March 19. Current president Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo, first elected in 2017, trailed former president José Ramos-Horta. Ramos-Horta won the April 19 runoff.

Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although many challenges remain.

Andrea Fahey, Lowy Institute (June 8, 2022): Timor-Leste, China and Australia,
and the influence contest

Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (June 6, 2022): Timor-Leste Signs Four Cooperation Agreements With China: But like many of its Southeast Asian neighbors, Dili will seek to maintain a judicious balance between dueling hegemons

AFP, SBS (June 4, 2022): China’s foreign minister signs agreements in Timor-Leste on final Pacific stop

Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: Beginning July 16, 2022 (delayed following death of deputy prime minister)

Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022

India Presidential Election (by parliament): July 18, 2022

Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)

Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)

Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022

Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)

Japan, Gubernatorial Election in Okinawa: September 2022 (due)

New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)

Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022

India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)

Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022

Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022

India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)

India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)

Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)

Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023

Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023

Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)

India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)

Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)

Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)

Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)

Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)

New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)

Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Eurasia

June 9, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

The steppes of Kazakhstan. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Togzhan Ibrayeva (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 11, 2022 (due)

Russia is due to hold regional and gubernatorial elections in some regions in September 2022. Because Russia staggers its regional elections, each year has some scheduled. However, the Kremlin has indicated that the elections due this year may not take place.

Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.

Consequently, the Kremlin is waging a brutal crackdown on the opposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him were banned from the election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – was able to field candidates in last year’s Duma elections. Navalny himself is in prison and recently received an additional nine years on top of his prior two and a half year sentence. More

Reuters (June 9, 2022): Russia’s Navalny scolds Google and Meta for helping Putin

RFE/RL (June 8, 2022): Moscow Court Replaces Navalny Associate Sobol’s Parole-Like Sentence With Prison Term

Julia Davis, Daily Beast (June 8, 2022): Team Putin Dishes on the Moment They Could Win It All

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 2023 and Presidential Election: By March 2024

Ukraine is due to hold parliamentary elections in 2023 and a presidential election in 2024.

In the last presidential vote, in 2019, actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyy beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko running on an anti-establishment platform. However, since then, the country’s traditional pro-Europe and pro-Moscow political forces have regained ground. Since the invasion, Ukrainians have rallied around Zelenskyy, but the United Kingdom and others have warned that Russia seeks to topple his government and install a pro-Moscow puppet regime.

Russia’s military aggression, which began in 2014, continues. Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. While Russia had perhaps expected that Ukraine’s government would collapse quickly, it has held. Moreover, most of Ukraine’s political factions have rallied behind Zelenskyy, with former rivals Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko (recently released from prison) posing for photos with him. Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) has met in its chamber, with members singing the national anthem. Most if not all members of the Rada have remained in Ukraine, either to continue to carry out their legislative duties or to fight with the military.

Igor Burdyga, openDemocracy (June 9, 2022): Surviving 100 days of Russian occupation in Kherson

Ecaterina Locoman, Foreign Policy Research Institute (June 7, 2022): What’s Next for Ukraine’s (and its Neighbors’) Domestic and Foreign Policy?

Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (June 6, 2022): Ukrainian MP Detained in Moldova on Belarus Warrant

Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due – snap elections possible)

Georgia is due to hold parliamentary elections in October 2024, but snap elections could happen. The October 2021 local elections took place in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of former president Mikheil Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote. Runoffs took place on October 30, including for the important role of mayor of Tbilisi, which the ruling Georgian Dream party failed to win in the first round. Ultimately, Georgian Dream did win the second round amid criticism from the opposition. The opposition has been calling for new elections since October 2020’s parliamentary polls, due to claims of fraud. International observers noted significant flaws in the elections, and observed that there were issues with public confidence in the polls.

Georgian Dream, a coalition founded by eccentric and Kremlin-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Despite Ivanishvili’s Kremlin ties, Georgian Dream has continued some of Georgia’s steps toward Euro-Atlantic integration, including applying for EU membership.

Thomas de Waal, Carnegie Endowment (June 9, 2022): Georgia, Europe’s Problem Child

Civil.ge (June 7, 2022): Ivanishvili or Europe, Two MEPs Forewarn Georgians

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025.

The last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior  to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.

Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.

Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova. More

Paula Erizanu, Financial Times (June 9, 2022): Helping Moldova is in Europe’s interest: Brussels should grant the country EU candidate status to counter Russian attempts to exploit economic hardship

Radu Magdin, Emerging Europe (June 3, 2022): Moldova needs EU candidate status and effective support for its membership perspective

Past Eurasia Elections

Kazakhstan Constitutional Referendum: June 5, 2022

Kazakhstan held a constitutional referendum on June 5, 2022 in response to a series of protests in January 2022 that rocked the country and left as many as 225 people dead, as well as a reported 12,000 people in detention.

Voters chose overwhelmingly to adopt a package of 33 reforms to the constitution (about one-third of the current constitution). President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (who called the protesters “terrorists”), claims that the reforms will transform Kazakhstsan from a super-presidential system to a “presidential system with a strong parliament.”

Central Asia expert Colleen Wood writes: “The proposed reforms are important steps toward real representative government in Kazakhstan; however, they do not necessarily constitute forward movement. Many of the amendments are simply reinstating mechanisms of checks on presidential power that previously existed, rather than materially changing the relationship between state and society, as Tokayev claims.”

Kazakhstan is an authoritarian state. Elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature. More

Maximilian Hess, Foreign Policy Research Institute (June 8, 2022): How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine has Affected Kazakh Politics

Meduza (June 7, 2022): ‘A twisted form of democracy’

Vladimir Afanasiev, Upstream (June 7, 2022): Kazakh referendum aims to quell discontent as oil sector starts to shed workers

Reuters (June 6, 2022): Kazakh leader pledges reform after referendum win

Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet (June 6, 2022): Kazakhstan voters OK constitutional changes, but meaning illusory to many: The referendum has bolstered the standing of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (June 6, 2022): Kazakhstan Leaves ‘Elbasy’ Behind, Approves Constitutional Referendum: With 77 percent voting to approve constitutional changes that nix the “leader of the nation,” Nazarbayev’s star has truly faded in Kazakhstan

RFE/RL (June 5, 2022): Kazakh Exit Polls Indicate More Than 70 Percent Voted For Constitutional Overhaul

RFE/RL (June 5, 2022 – video): Kazakh Opposition Protests Amid Constitutional Referendum

Paul Bartlett, Nikkei Asia (June 4, 2022): Kazakhstan set to vote on constitution reform in Putin-like process

Farangis Najibullah, RFE/RL (June 3, 2022): Is Real Change Coming? Kazakhs Skeptical About Vote To Remove ‘Nazarbaev’ Benefits From Constitution

Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022

Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, held a constitutional referendum on February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The changes allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035 and scrap Belarus’s non-nuclear status. Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.

The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. 

In addition, Russia staged troops in Belarus ahead of its invasion of Ukraine. More

Markos Kounalakis, Washington Monthly (June 9, 2022): The U.S. Should Recognize Belarus’s Government in Exile

Reports Without Borders (June 9, 2022): RSF unveils portraits of journalists detained in Belarus

Emily Clark and Agnieszka Suszko, ABC News Australia (June 4, 2022): The underground network of Belarusians sabotaging Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and plotting a revolution at home

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 11, 2022 (due)

Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Europe

June 8, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

Street signs in Tirana, Albania. Albania’s parliament just elected a new president in a vote boycotted by much of the opposition. Photo credit: Flickr/amanderson2 (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Europe Elections

France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.

In total, 12 candidates qualified for the first round of the presidential election (by obtaining 500 signatures of elected officials). Pre-election polls were all over the place, but the runoff was a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017. Macron once again won. However, the upcoming legislative elections could create challenges for his agenda if his allies do not win a majority.

Florence Villeminot, France24 (June 8, 2022): France votes again: What’s at stake in the legislative elections?

Reuters (June 8, 2022): Poll shows French President Macron’s bloc ahead in parliamentary election

Angelique Chrisafis, The Guardian (June 8, 2022): Fatal police shooting of woman in Paris sparks political row

Michael Wohlgemuth, GIS (June 6, 2022): After the French elections, what kind of Europe?

Matthew Lynn, The Telegraph (June 6, 2022): The French far-Left is the biggest threat to the euro: Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s rise shows that parliamentary elections could hardly have come at a worse time for Macron

Tony Barber, Financial Times (June 4, 2022): The strange death of the moderate French left: Old-style social democracy is in trouble in much of Europe but nowhere more so than in France

Romain Brunet and Benjamin Dodman, France24 (June 2, 2022): ‘Proud to be amateurs’: Five years on, have Macron’s political novices delivered?

Spain, Regional Elections in Andalusia: June 19, 2022

Andalusia, Spain’s most populous region, holds elections on June 19. The last elections, in 2018, delivered a surprising victory for the right, ending 36 years of socialist rule.

Conor Faulkner, The Local (June 5, 2022): Andalusia’s regional elections: Who will win and why it matters for Spain

Laura Zornoza, Euractive (June 2, 2022): Spain’s centre-right leader confident of general election win

Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022

Sweden holds general elections on September 11, 2022.

In June 2021, the left-leaning coalition led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven fell in a no-confidence vote. Lofven was re-elected PM, but could fall in yet another no-confidence vote if his government cannot pass a budget. In August, Lofven suddenly announced his resignation, effective in November. Magdalena Andersson, currently the finance minister, succeeded him and became Sweden’s first female prime minister.

Most recently, Sweden (and Finland) begun debates about joining NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The opposition Moderates, Sweden’s main center-right party, have said they support this, while the incumbent Social Democrats are split.

Niclas Rolander, Bloomberg (June 3, 2022): Swedish Leader May Be Sunk by Kurd Lawmaker Who Irks Turkey

Ranj Alaaldin, Brookings Institution (June 3, 2022): Turkey’s threat to derail Swedish and Finnish NATO accession reraises the Kurdish question

Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022

Latvia holds parliamentary elections on October 1, 2022. These follow last year’s local elections, which saw a record low turnout and a fragmented result.

Latvia has been a democracy since regaining independence in 1991 (of note, none of the three Baltic nations ever actually recognized the Soviet occupation), and is a member of NATO and the European Union.

These elections are happening in a heated geopolitical climate. Last year’s Riga snap elections surprised political observers by knocking, Harmony, the party that Latvia’s Russian community supports, from the top spot. Harmony has historically been strong in Riga, the capital, but last year’s Riga elections surprised political observers by knocking Harmony down from the top spot. Instead, an alliance of the liberal Development/For! party and social democrat environmentalist Progressives won the most seats and formed the local government. More

LETA (June 8, 2022): Ratings of Latvian political parties indicate positive changes for two

Latvian Public Broadcasting (June 5, 2022): Pre-election campaign period kicks off in Latvia

Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. However, BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. 

BiH consists of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mostly by Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats, and the Republika Srpska, with mostly Orthodox Serbs. Recently, tensions have flared as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has used increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and taken actions that some analysts see as moving toward secession. According to Reuters, “The Balkan country is going through its worst political crisis since the end of a war in the 1990s after Bosnian Serbs blocked decision-making in national institutions and launched a process to withdraw from the state armed forces, tax system and judiciary.”

Both Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats have threatened to boycott the upcoming elections. The tensions have gone Europe-wide as Croatia’s president has threatened to veto NATO membership for Finland and Sweden unless Bosnia changes its electoral code.

Jean-Charles Putzolu, Vatican News (June 8, 2022): Bosnia-Herzegovina: The war visible in a museum, 30 years on

Emir Velic, Transitions Online (June 7, 2022): Mostar City Hall Flounders in the Deep End

Reuters (June 7, 2022): Bosnia’s international envoy imposes decision on financing general election

Sofija Popović, European Western Balkans (June 3, 2022): Problem with election financing: New political obstruction in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023

Denmark is due to hold general elections by June 4, 2023. The current government consists of the Social Democrats, with confidence and supply from several other left-of-center parties, led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. This government came to power following the 2019 elections, which saw the defeat of Lars Løkke Rasmussen‘s center-right coalition. 

In a referendum on June 1, Danes voted overwhelmingly to join the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy. Denmark had previously been the only EU member state not to be a part of the defense pact, part of the current trend of countries moving toward greater security integration in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Bloomberg (June 5, 2022): Denmark’s Prime Minister Says She’s Open to a Grand Coalition

Christian Wienberg, Stratfor (June 3, 2022): The Significance of Denmark Ending Its EU Defense Opt-Out

Euractiv with Reuters (June 2, 2022): Denmark to join EU defence policy after historic vote

Estonia Parliamentary Elections: By March 5, 2023

Estonia is due to hold parliamentary elections by March 5, 2023, but snap elections are possible due to an ongoing crisis.

Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. 

However, in June 2022, Centre withdrew from the government. Kallas must now find more coalition partners in order to prevent the government from collapsing, which would trigger early elections.

This is all happening in the context of major security concerns. Because Estonia is a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy, Russia has for a long time targeted the country with cyberattacks and other provocations. In the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, security concerns are at the top of Estonians’ minds. More

Ott Tammik, Bloomberg (June 6, 2022): Putin Critic Kallas Needs New Estonian Allies to Keep Power

AFP (June 3, 2022): Estonian government in crisis as coalition crumbles

Past Europe Elections

Albania Presidential Election (indirect): Ongoing

Albania’s indirect presidential election began on May 16, 2022 and continued until parliament chose General Major Bajram Begaj after failing to choose a compromise candidate. Most of the opposition boycotted the voting.

Albania held parliamentary elections on April 25, 2021 in a tense political climate with several violent incidents. The elections were close, and the incumbent Socialist Party won a third term in office, defeating the main opposition center-right Democratic Party. 

After World War II, Albania became an isolationist communist dictatorship, one of the most brutal regimes in the world. However, since communism collapsed in 1990, the country has held competitive elections and several transitions of power between political parties. Albania joined NATO in 2009 and is currently a candidate for EU membership. While Albania has had less engagement with China than other countries in the Western Balkans, Beijing is trying to make inroads.  More

AP (June 4, 2022): Albania Elects Top General as the Country’s New President

United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022

The United Kingdom held local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly, on May 5.

Northern Ireland’s nationalist Sinn Féin became the biggest party in the Assembly following these elections. Although its candidates ran on bread and butter issues, the win could accelerate calls for a referendum on Northern Ireland’s status.

In England, the Liberal Democrats were the big winner, and the Conservatives lost several London councils that they had controlled for decades. Nonetheless, there were very few calls for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign. Johnson subsequently faced a no-confidence motion, which he survived.

Tara John, Ivana Kottasová, Rob Picheta, and Luke McGee, CNN (June 7, 2022): British Prime Minister Boris Johnson squeaks through confidence vote but faces battle for survival

Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022

Slovenia held general elections on April 24, 2022. The incumbent government, a conservative minority coalition headed by populist Janez Janša (which came to power in January 2020 after the center-left minority government of Marjan Šarec collapsed) lost. Political newcomer Robert Golob, who founded the liberal Freedom Movement in January, won on a platform of restoring press freedoms and democratic institutions – Janša had been accused of authoritarian backsliding during his time in office.

Alem Maksuti, Balkan Insight (June 3, 2022): Slovenia’s New Govt Has Fighting Chance to Restore Normality

Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021

Bulgaria held a presidential election on November 14 along with parliamentary elections – the third this year after no one could form a government following the first two. It appears that the third time was a charm, as a new political party called We Continue the Change (whose founders tout their Harvard credentials) formed a broad coalition.

The elections brought major change, ousting former PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB, which had governed for most of the last 12 years. The country also saw the rise of a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, which came in second in the April elections and first in the July elections. Despite being edged out by We Continue the Change in November, ITN will be part of the new coalition. The other parties in the government will be the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the centrist/center-right Democratic Bulgaria coalition.

Bulgaria is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU); however, it remains the poorest and most corrupt member of the EU. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to influence Bulgaria. Most recently, it cut off gas exports to Bulgaria (and Poland) in retaliation for EU sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Bulgaria now faces the possibility of yet another set of early elections following ITN’s withdrawal from the coalition, sparked by the PM’s plans to lift the veto on North Macedonia joining the EU. More

Georgi Gotev and Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (June 8, 2022): North Macedonia issue triggers political earthquake in Bulgaria

Christian Oliver, Politico (June 8, 2022): Bulgaria lurches back to political discord as PM Petkov faces loss of majority: Kiril Petkov has taken a robustly pro-NATO position on the conflict in Ukraine — in a country where Russian ties run deep

Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (June 8, 2022): Bulgarian Ruling Coalition Cracks over North Macedonia Dispute

Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

Croatia, Early Local Elections in Split: June 26, 2022

Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)

Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022

Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022

Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022

Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022

Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022

Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)

Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)

Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023

Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)

Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)

Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)

Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)

Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023

Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)

Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)

Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023

Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)

Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)

Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023

Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)

Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)

Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023

Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023

Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023

Norway Local Elections: September 2023

Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023

Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023

Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)

Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023

Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.