Asia

October 11, 2024

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The entrance to the A-Ma Temple, dedicated to Chinese sea-goddess Mazu, in Macau. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Edwin.11 (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

Mongolia Local Elections: October 11, 2024

Craig Castagna, International Republican Institute (October 10, 2024): Election Watch: Mongolia

Macau Chief Executive Election: October 13, 2024 (indirect)

Kenji Kawase, Nikkei Asia (October 12, 2024): Macao’s predetermined election reverberates across casinos and Hong Kong

Kanis Leung, AP (October 11, 2024): An ex-judge from mainland China is set to take Macao’s top job. What’s at stake for the casino hub?

Kiribati Presidential Election: October 25, 2024

Don Wiseman, Radio New Zealand (October 10, 2024): Kiribati presidential candidates release manifestos

Kristy Needham, Reuters (October 7, 2024): China’s Pacific ally Kiribati criticises Beijing missile launch

Japan Snap Parliamentary Elections: October 27, 2024

In August 2024, Japan’s then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he was stepping down in the wake of a slush fund scandal in the governing Liberal Democratic Party. The party helped a leadership election on September 27, which former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba won. Following the election, Ishiba called a snap election for October 27, a move that had been widely expected. 

Mari Yamaguchi, AP (October 9, 2024): Japan’s new PM dissolves the lower house of parliament to set up a snap election

Craig Mark, The Conversation (October 9, 2024): Why did Japan’s new leader trigger snap elections only a week after taking office? And what happens next?

Sri Lanka Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 14, 2024

Sri Lanka held its first presidential election since the 2022 financial crisis on September 21. Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake won, defeating a number of establishment political figures. He then called snap parliamentary elections, in a bid to consolidate his power. Sri Lanka remains a key site of geopolitical competition, with China constantly seeking to expand its influence and India continuing to play a role.  

Keerthi Martyn, The Diplomat (October 8, 2024): What Can the US Expect From Sri Lanka’s New President?

Indonesia Regional Elections: November 27, 2024

Erin Cook, Lowy Institute (October 9, 2024): Who’s in, who’s up, and who’s really representing who in Indonesia’s regional elections?

Paul Marshall, The Diplomat (October 7, 2024): Will Prabowo’s Election End Indonesia’s Era Reformasi?

Philippines Midterm Legislative and Local Elections: May 12, 2025

Mong Palatino, The Diplomat (October 11, 2024): What’s Old and New in the Midterm Philippine Elections?

Jim Gomez, AP (October 9, 2024): Rights groups ask Filipinos to reject ex-Pres Duterte and detained preacher in upcoming elections

Rebecca Ratcliffe,  The Guardian (October 9, 2024): Stage set for battle of the dynasties as Rodrigo Duterte eyes return to politics in the Philippines

Al Jazeera (October 8, 2024): Rodrigo Duterte to run for mayor in southern Philippines stronghold

Raissa Robles, South China Morning Post (October 6, 2024): Marcos allies gain early lead in Philippine Senate race amid voting machine controversy

Burma Elections: Proposed for 2025 (overdue following 2021 coup)

Mi Kun Chan Non and Ashley South, East Asia Forum (October 12, 2024): Don’t Fall For The Fake Election In Myanmar

Bangladesh Snap Elections: Forthcoming

AFP (October 8, 2024): Bangladesh’s Yunus says no elections before reforms

Ahmede Hussain, The Diplomat (October 8, 2024): The Bangladesh Army Must Not Meddle in Politics

Shahadat Hossain, The Diplomat (October 8, 2024): How the Shahbagh-Hefazat Ideological Divide Is Influencing Post-Revolution Bangladesh: Despite the unity during the 2024 protest movement, old divisions between secular leftists and Islamists quickly resurfaced.

Arafatul Islam, DW (October 7, 2024): Bangladesh: What awaits Ex-PM Hasina and the Awami League?

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

India, Assembly Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: September 18-October 1, 2024 and Haryana: October 5, 2024

AP (October 8, 2024): Biggest Kashmir party opposed to India’s stripping of region’s autonomy wins most seats in election

Sakshi Dayal and YP Rajesh, Reuters (October 8, 2024): India’s BJP set to win Haryana vote in boost for Modi, Congress rejects outcome

Alex Travelli, Hari Kumar, and Showkat Nanda, New York Times (October 8, 2024): India’s Political Carnival Is Back in Season, With Mixed Results for Modi

Neyaz Farooquee and Sharanya Hrishikesh, BBC (October 7, 2024): Modi’s BJP ahead in Haryana election but trails in Kashmir

Elections On Deck

Eurasia

October 10, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Soroca Fort in Soroca, Moldova. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Photobank MD (CC0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Moldova Presidential Election and Referendum on Joining the EU: October 20, 2024

Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (October 10, 2024): EU Promises Moldova 1.8 bn Euros Ahead of Key Elections

Anda Bologa, CEPA (October 9, 2024): Moldova — Time to Choose Moscow or Brussels

Alexander Tanas, Reuters (October 8, 2024): What’s at stake in Moldova’s election and referendum on Oct. 20?

Sonya Bandouil, Kyiv Independent (October 4, 2024): Moldova uncovers $15 million Russian-backed plot to influence upcoming elections with bribes and disinformation

Gabriel Gavin, Politico (October 3, 2024): Russia paying people to vote against joining EU, Moldova warns

Peter Apps, Reuters (October 3, 2024): Why Moldova’s election is more important than it looks

AFP (October 3, 2024): Moldova Uncovers ’Unprecedented’ Pro-Russia Vote Rigging

Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 26, 2024

Tamara Sartania, German Marshall Fund (October 9, 2024): A Risk Assessment for Georgia’s 2024 Parliamentary Elections

Robert E. Hamilton and Nvard Chalikyan, Foreign Policy Research Institute (October 7, 2024): Georgian and US Elections: Defining the Next Chapter for the South Caucasus

Felix Light, Reuters (October 7, 2024): Georgia’s ruling party starts impeachment of pro-Western president before election

Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: October 27, 2024

Under Islam Karimov, who ruled Uzbekistan from independence until his death in 2016, Uzbekistan was a brutal dictatorship. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has branded himself as a reformer. However, Freedom House notes: “While reforms adopted since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office in 2016 have led to improvements on some issues, Uzbekistan remains an authoritarian state with few signs of democratization. No opposition parties operate legally.”

Mirshohid Aslanov, The Diplomat (October 9, 2024): Uzbekistan’s Upcoming Parliamentary Elections: A Chance for Change?

Dr. Gulnoza Ismailova, Modern Diplomacy (October 9, 2024): Navigating a “challenging and difficult” path towards democracy

Jennifer Baker, Euractiv (October 9, 2024): Silk Road 2.0? Uzbekistan-EU relations boosted by new democratic elections

Belarus Presidential Election: Due in 2025

Yuras Karmanau, AP (October 8, 2024): Authorities in Belarus open new criminal probes against scores of opposition activists

Past Eurasia Elections

Kazakhstan Referendum on Nuclear Power Plant: October 6, 2024

Assel Satubaldina, Astana Times (October 6, 2024): Preliminary Results Show Voter Turnout at Nearly 64% in Kazakhstan’s National Referendum

Reuters (October 6, 2024): Kazakhstan votes in favour of nuclear power plant construction, exit poll shows

Chris Rickleton, RFE/RL (October 5, 2024): Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Vote: Many Questions, But Just One On The Ballot

Regional Analysis

Marina Ohanjanyan, Clingendael (October 9, 2024): Key elections in EU candidates Georgia and Moldova: Democracy and geopolitics at stake

Elections On Deck

Europe

October 9, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Ruins of the The Odeon of Philippopolis in Plovdiv, Bulgaria. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Realsteel007 (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Europe Elections

Bulgaria Snap Elections: October 27, 2024

Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (October 7, 2024): Key political player in Bulgaria arrested for influence peddling ahead of elections

United Kingdom Conservative Party Leadership Election: Results Announced November 2, 2024

Kate Whannel, BBC (October 8, 2024): Badenoch and Jenrick reach final two in Tory race

Albania Parliamentary Elections: By June 2025

DW (October 8, 2024): Albania: Clashes as protesters call on government to resign

Llazar Semini, AP (October 8, 2024): Albania’s opposition protests and demands a caretaker Cabinet

Germany Federal Parliamentary Elections: September 28, 2025

Germany’s 2025 federal elections come on the heels of three state elections in the east that delivered blows to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning coalition government. The far-right AfD won in Thuringia and casein a close second in Saxony. While Scholz’s SPD pulled off a surprise win in Brandenburg, AfD made large gains there as well. In addition, a new pro-Putin, anti-establishment left-wing populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), won large percentages of the vote. 

Euractiv (October 9, 2024): The Brief – Germany’s election season is upon us

Nette Nöstlinger, Politico (October 8, 2024): Germany’s social democrats name new top leader ahead of national election campaign

Past Europe Elections

Bosnia and Herzegovina Local Elections: October 6, 2024

Azem Kurtic, Balkan Insight (October 7, 2024): Bosnia’s Big Parties Maintain Grip Outside Cities in Local Elections

OSCE (October 7, 2024): Local elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina were competitive amidst legal reform but lacked genuine public engagement, international observers say

Daniel Bellamy, Euronews (October 6, 2024): Bosnia holds local elections just days after deadly floods

Austria Parliamentary Elections: September 29, 2024

Philipp Jenne and Geir Moulson, AP (October 9, 2024): Austria’s president seeks a solution after other parties say they won’t work with the far right

Reuters (October 5, 2024): Austrian far-right head urges rivals to let him govern after election win

Spain Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2024

The Economist (October 3, 2024): Pedro Sánchez clings to office at a cost to Spain’s democracy

Elections On Deck

Middle East

October 8, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The city of Bizerte, Tunisia, the northernmost city in Africa. Photo credit: Wikimedia/David Ollier (CC BY 3.0)

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: October 20, 2024

Kurdistan24 (October 8, 2024): Erbil officials finalize preparations for peaceful sixth Kurdistan Parliamentary elections

Past Middle East Elections

Tunisia Presidential Election: October 6, 2024

AP (October 8, 2024): Tunisia’s President Saied wins reelection after cracking down on the opposition

The Guardian (October 5, 2024): Arab spring dreams in ruins as Tunisia goes to polls against backdrop of repression

Inès Jaibi, Tahrir Institute (October 4, 2024): Beyond the Ballot: What Do Tunisia’s Presidential Elections Mean for the Future?

Jordan Parliamentary Elections: September 10, 2024

Tariq Al-Nuaimat, Carnegie Endowment (October 4, 2024): Analyzing Jordan’s Parliamentary Elections 2024

Elections On Deck

Africa

October 7, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Chapel of Nossa Senhora de Baluarte and Fort of São Sebastião on the Island of Mozambique, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Stig Nygaard (CC BY 2.0) 

Upcoming Africa Elections

Mozambique Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 9, 2024

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

Mariama Diallo, Voice of America (October 7, 2024): Some ready for change with Mozambique elections, others want continuity

Antonio Cascais, DW (October 7, 2024): Elections in Mozambique: Frelimo regarded front-runner

GZERO (October 7, 2024): Viewpoint: Mozambique holds elections amid renewed hopes for LNG projects

Jose Tembe and Angela Henshall, BBC (October 5, 2024): Fresh faces in Mozambique’s poll as independence era leaders bow out

The Africa Report (October 4, 2024): Four contenders vying for Mozambique’s top job

Bhargav Acharya, Reuters (October 2, 2024): What are the key issues in Mozambique elections?

Botswana Legislative and Local Elections: October 30, 2024

Mqondisi Dube, Voice of America (September 30, 2024): Botswana leader, 3 from opposition confirmed as presidential candidates

Nigeria: Local elections in Abia: November 2, 2024 and State elections in Ondo: November 16, 2024 – next national elections are in 2027 (following state elections in Edo on September 21, 2024)

Chris Kwaja and Matthew Edds-Reitman, U.S. Instate of Peace (October 1, 2024): Nigeria at a Crossroads: Navigating Protests Amid Elections

Mauritius Parliamentary Elections: November 10, 2024

Mauritius announced its general elections right after Britain announce that it would cede the Chagos Islands, a strategic archipelago in the Indian Ocean that houses the Diego Garcia air base, to Mauritius. Diego Garcia is a key base for both the United Kingdom and the United States. Mauritius has close ties with China, including a free trade agreement inked 2021. 

Andrew Stuttaford, National Review (October 6, 2024): Britain’s Dangerous Territorial Giveaway

Reuters (October 4, 2024): Mauritius’ President Roopun sets general election for Nov 10

Nick Gutteridge and Dominic Penna, The Telegraph (October 3, 2024): ‘America will be furious and Beijing delighted’: How Starmer handed Chagos to China

Senegal Snap Legislative Elections: November 17, 2024

For a long time, Senegal was considered a stable democracy, but backsliding and protests riled the tenure of former president Macky Sall, who served until this year and was not eligible to run for a third term. Sall’s chosen successor, Amadou Ba, lost to leftist opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye in this year’s presidential election, which took place in March. Faye is now holding legislative elections to consolidate his hold on power. 

A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production, upping the geopolitical and international economic stakes of Senegal’s politics.

Katarina Höije, Bloomberg (October 5, 2024): Senegal Pledges Swift Action on Budget Gap After Ratings Cut

AFP (October 2, 2024): Senegal Releases Three Who Were Critical Of Authorities

Africanews (October 2, 2024): Senegal’s opposition coalition names former Pres. Macky Sall as its lead candidate

Jessica Moody, African Business (October 1, 2024): As elections approach, how has President Faye changed Senegal?

Guinea-Bissau Snap Legislative Elections: November 24, 2024 (presidential election also due by the end of 2024 but could be delayed)

Paulin Maurice Toupane, Institute for Security Studies (October 2, 2024): Guinea-Bissau must restore institutional legitimacy for credible elections

Tanzania Local Elections: November 27, 2024

Kizito Makoye, Globe and Mail (October 1, 2024): Opposition leaders face disappearances, deaths and detentions in Tanzania

Ghana Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 7, 2024

Kent Mensah, The Africa Report (October 1, 2024): Ghana: Who’s who in the race to become president?

Somalia General Elections: Due in 2027

Africanews (October 4, 2024): UN Official pledges support for Somalia, as it faces challenges including elections

Elections On Deck

Americas

October 5, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Farol da Barra Lighthouse in Salvador, Brazil. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Portal da Copa/ME (victoria.camara) (CC BY 3.0 BR)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Brazil Local Elections: October 6, 2024

Reuters (October 2, 2024): Approval of Brazil’s Lula slips ahead of mid-term local elections

The Economist (October 2, 2024): Jair Bolsonaro still shapes Brazil’s political right

Stratfor (September 30, 2024): Brazil’s Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

Uruguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 27, 2024

Luisa Leme, AS/COA (October 3, 2024): LatAm in Focus: Could a Referendum Rattle Uruguay’s Presidential Election?

Suriname General Elections: May 25, 2025

MercoPress (October 5, 2024): Survey finds Orsi ahead in voting intention to become Uruguay’s next president

CMC (October 2, 2024): Suriname: President Santokhi names date for election

Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: October 2025 (due)

Reuters (September 30, 2024): Argentina’s Milei predicts 2025 election shakeup at party launch

MercoPress (September 30, 2024): Milei launches LLA nationwide with 2025 elections in sight

Canada General Elections: Due by October 20, 2025 but could be called earlier

Nadine Yousif, BBC (October 1, 2024): Trudeau survives second parliamentary confidence vote

Michael Bonner, City Journal (September 30, 2024): Canada’s New Young Conservatives

Haiti General Elections: Postponed indefinitely

Brad Dress, The Hill (September 30, 2024): UN extends Haiti mission mandate after dropping push for larger peacekeeping effort

Past Americas Elections

Venezuela Presidential Election: July 28, 2024

Reuters (October 4, 2024): Ex-presidential candidate Gonzalez says he will return to Venezuela to take office in January

Regina Garcia Cano, AP (October 2, 2024): Independent election experts legitimize tally sheets Venezuela’s opposition says prove Maduro lost

AFP (September 30, 2024): Venezuelan opposition figure Machado wins European rights award

Mexico General Elections: June 2, 2024

Le Monde with AFP (October 1, 2024): Sheinbaum takes office as Mexico’s first woman president

Elections On Deck