January 27, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
The port of Malé, Maldives. The September 9 presidential election in Maldives may not be on everyone’s radar screen, but it will have geopolitical implications. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Shahee Ilyas (CC BY 4.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023 and in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023 (followed by more state elections later this year and parliamentary elections next year)
India’s states have their own elected governments that have significant devolved power. Roughly one-third of them hold elections in 2023. First up: the northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, followed by votes in Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana (and possibly Jammu & Kashmir) later this year.
These state elections will set the tone for next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls, which determine who runs the government. Narendra Modi’s BJP is campaigning for a history-making third term.
Akshay Rout, Economic Times (January 27, 2023): 2023, the year of elections before the election year
Manyank Mishra, India Today (January 24, 2023): Why Odisha, Punjab, West Bengal and Telangana are so crucial for BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Shivam Vij, Gulf News (January 23, 2023): Why India’s 2024 elections will be fought on YouTube: YouTube is replacing TV for millions of Indians and politicians are making the most of it
Bangladesh Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament – largely symbolic role): February 19, 2023, followed by Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner.
Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”
Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country.
Anisur Rahman, PTI (January 25, 2023): Bangladesh to hold presidential election on Feb 19
Shafi Md Mostofa, The Diplomat (January 24, 2023): Big Powers Battle for Influence in Bangladesh: The South Asian country is being courted by the U.S., Russia, and China among others, and officials are making a beeline to Dhaka.
Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Shaikh Azizur Rahman, The Guardian (January 22, 2023): ‘They beat me with sticks’: Bangladesh opposition reels under crackdown as thousands arrested
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. The May elections are likely to pit Prayuth against the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra has announced her intention to run for prime minster this year.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. As Reuters notes: “Administrations loyal to Shinawatras have each been removed by the military or judicial rulings, adding fuel to a seemingly intractable political crisis that has ebbed and flowed in Thailand for over 17 years.”
Jeffery Hutton, Straits Times (January 27, 2023): Thailand faces tougher competition for high-tech foreign investments as election jitters mount
Reuters (January 26, 2023): Thai PM walks out of news conference over question on ex-leader Thaksin
Panarat Thepgumpanat and Chayut Setboonsarng, Reuters (January 26, 2023): Thailand, EU look to resume free trade talks by March
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Reuters (January 27, 2023): Myanmar army set to cement rule with tough new election criteria
Liam Scott, Foreign Policy (January 26, 2023): U.N. Rapporteur: Myanmar Crisis ‘Has Been Forgotten’: Two years after the coup, the world has moved on, but many Burmese can’t.
The Diplomat (January 25, 2023): Myanmar Military Spokesperson Expresses Uncertainty Over Junta Polls: Frequent resistance attacks have greatly complicated the holding of a stage-managed election this year.
David Hut, The Diplomat (January 25, 2023): How Does The Myanmar Crisis End? The military junta’s possible handover of power to a quasi-civilian “transition council” could create complications for the country’s resistance forces.
Ingyin Naing, Voice of America (January 24, 2023): Uncertainty Shrouds Myanmar Elections
The Irrawaddy (January 23, 2023): 13 Election Commission Offices Attacked by Resistance So Far: Myanmar Regime
Grant Peck, AP (January 23, 2023): Rights group files suit in Germany against Myanmar military: A human rights group and 16 individuals have filed a criminal complaint in Germany seeking punishment of Myanmar’s generals for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky and the former dictator and his family remain involved in politics.
On January 28, the pro-democracy, center-right Maldivian Democratic Party (currently in power) will hold a primary to decide its presidential candidate. Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih faces off against former president Mohamed Nasheed. Meanwhile, another former president, Abdulla Yameen, who is also brother-in-law of the former dictator, will be the candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Former defense minister Mohamed Nazim is also running.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. MDP is broadly pro-India while PPM is broadly pro-China.
Al Jazeera (January 28, 2023): Maldives ruling party holds high-stakes presidential primary: Democracy icon Mohamed Nasheed’s political future in balance as governing party voters head to the polls.
Chhotelal Kumar, The Geopolitics (January 25, 2023): Maldives’ Presidential Election and Possible Challenges for India
Taiwan Presidential Election: Early 2024 (due)
Taiwan’s presidential election is due next year. The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
Dan Lamothe, Washington Post (January 27, 2023): U.S. general warns troops that war with China is possible in two years: Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who oversees the Air Force’s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, cited the 2024 presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States as part of his rational
DW (January 26, 2023): Taiwan: Chen Chien-jen announced as new premier
Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia (January 26, 2023): Analysis: Xi puts top brain in charge of Taiwan unification strategy: Wang Huning tasked with creating alternative to ‘one country, two systems’
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
New Zealand’s October general elections got a bit more interesting following the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, considered a star on the global stage but under increasing pressure in New Zealand due to her authoritarian tendencies and failure to deliver on basic campaign promises.
Ardern cited personal reasons for her resignation, but under her leadership, the Labour Party lost a lot of support. Currently, the center-right Nationals are favored to win the elections, but a lot can happen in a few months.
Lucy Craymer, Reuters (January 25, 2023): New Zealand’s top PM contender wants to change central bank mandate, Ardern’s policies
AP (January 24, 2023): Chris Hipkins sworn in as New Zealand’s 41st prime minister
Josie Pagani, New York Times (January 24, 2023): Jacinda Ardern, the Star Who Didn’t Quite Deliver
Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll (January 24, 2023): New Zealand: Labour support at only 27.5% in December 2022 – down 22.5% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election before Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned
Herb Scribner, Axios (January 22, 2023): Chris Hipkins to replace Ardern as New Zealand’s prime minister
Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024
Indonesia has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for February 14, 2024, followed by provincial elections on November 27, 2024, ending speculation that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would seek to delay the election and extend his term.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.
Straits Times (January 27, 2023): Jokowi’s two sons likely to contest in Indonesia’s 2024 elections
Reuters (January 24, 2023): Indonesia’s FDI jumps in 2022, led by mineral processing
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (January 23, 2023): Indonesia’s Jokowi Registers All-Time High Approval Rating
Michael Vatikiotis, Globe and Mail (January 21, 2023): Is Indonesia morphing into an Islamic autocracy?
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Fiji General Elections: December 14, 2022
Fiji’s December 2022 elections toppled the government of former coup leader Frank Bainimarama by Sitiveni Rabuka, who himself also previously led a coup (Fiji has had four coups since the 1980s).
On the campaign trail, Rabuka ruled out a security pact with China and advocated for a return to closer relations with Australia.
Al Jazeera and Reuters (January 27, 2023): Fiji suspends police commissioner, ends China policing agreement
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/24/state-of-opposition-in-south-asia-pub-88835
Regional Analysis
Christine Rove, Stuff NZ (January 28, 2023): Pacific predictions: What’s on the horizon for 2023
David Hutt, DW (January 24, 2023): Is the EU losing the fight for human rights in Asia?
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Nepal Presidential Election (by Parliament): February 11, 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023
Bangladesh Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament – largely symbolic role): February 19, 2023
India, State Elections in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 7, 2023
Sri Lanka Local Elections: March 9, 2023
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Bhutan National Assembly Elections: March 2023 (due)
Sri Lanka Provincial Elections: March 2023 (due)
Japan Unified Local Elections: April 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
New Zealand, Niue General Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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A Bird’s-Eye View of Elections
This Week
Americas
January 28, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023
Reuters (January 25, 2023): Ecuador accuses 28 local election candidates of possible crime links
Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023
Clara Preve-Durrieu, New York Sun (January 28, 2023): Biden’s Sanctions in Paraguay Could Aid Communist Chinese Efforts To Build Influence in South America: With a presidential election looming, Treasury-imposed sanctions are putting at risk the country’s long-lasting relationship with the Republic of China on Taiwan.
Ken Parks, Bloomberg (January 26, 2023): US Sanctions Two of Paraguay’s Political Elite Ahead of Vote
Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023
Bnamericas notes: “In this year’s gubernatorial elections in Mexico state and Coahuila, ruling Morena party could take the last strongholds of conservative PRI party….Coahuila and Mexico state are home to the biggest number of the opposition parties’ members, with Mexico state always having been governed by PRI. If both states flipped to Morena, the party’s 2024 presidential candidate would enjoy a massive advantage, while pushing PRI to the brink of extinction.”
BNAmericas (January 26, 2023): Mexico’s 2023 elections: What’s at stake?
Reuters (January 23, 2023): Analysis: Mexico City metro exposes “Achilles heel” of mayor’s presidential dreams
Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023
Human Rights Watch (January 24, 2023): Human Rights Concerns for Guatemala’s 2023 General Elections
Chile Constituent Assembly Elections: April/May (expected) and Constitutional Referendum: November/December (expected)
Following protests starting in 2019, an elected group of Chileans drafted a new constitution in 2022. The group produced one of the world’s most left-wing proposed constitutions in the world, but voters rejected it by a large margin. Subsequently, lawmakers agreed to restart the process. Therefore, Chile will hold elections for a new constituent assembly in April or May, with a referendum on the draft constitution that body produces expected in November or December.
Reuters (January 23, 2023): Crime, inflation hammer support for Chile’s Boric in tough first year
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023
Agustino Fontevecchia, Buenos Aires Times (January 28, 2023): The secret pacts between Massa & Alberto and Macri & Rodríguez Larreta
Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott, Financial Times (January 24, 2023): Gas and mining boom to transform Argentina’s economy, minister says: Sergio Massa highlights Vaca Muerta shale development set to turn Buenos Aires into exporter
Peru General Elections: April 11, 2021 (early elections could be set for April or December 2024)
Paula Bustamante, AFP (January 28, 2023): Peru Congress rejects snap election, president asks to try again
Dan Collyns and Tom Phillips, The Guardian (January 27, 2023): Peru’s beleaguered president urges congress to bring 2024 elections forward: Dina Boluarte calls for vote to be held in December after weeks of anti-government protests since overthrow of former president
AFP (January 27, 2023): Lima records first protest death after Peru lawmakers reject snap elections
Daniel Politi, AP (January 24, 2023): Rights groups dismayed at lack of criticism for Peru abuses
AP (January 23, 2023): Pope calls for an end to violence in Peru, urges talks
Alicia del Aguila, European Consortium for Political Research (January 23, 2023): The roots of political conflict in Peru
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set – don’t hold your breath)
Widlore Mérancourt and Claire Parker, Washington Post (January 26, 2023): Haitian police, angered by officer killings, attack PM’s home, airport
J.O. Haselhoef, Haitian Times (January 25, 2023): UN: New ‘dynamic consensus’ in place for Haiti, elections coming this year
Peter Hakim, Georges Fauriol, Sibylle Fischer, and James Morrell: Latin America Advisor (January 25, 2023): What Must Be Done in Order for Haiti to Survive?
AP (January 23, 2023): UN chief insists on deploying special armed forces as crises in Haiti worsen
Past Americas Elections
Brazil General Elections: October 2, 2022
Al Jazeera (January 28, 2023): Jan 8 investigation targets nephew of Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro: Leonardo Rodrigues de Jesus is the first member of Bolsonaro’s family to be probed in relation to the January 8 attack.
The Brazilian Report, Wilson Center (January 26, 2023): Lula Finds Out that Latin America Is Not As He Left It
Vinicius Andrade, Maria Eloisa Capurro and Felipe Saturnino, Bloomberg (January 24, 2023): Lula’s Jab at Central Bank Puts Traders on Edge Across Brazil
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Harry Scherer, Newsweek (January 23, 2023): Why Is the Biden Administration Ignoring Religious Persecution in Nigeria?
Bolivia General Elections: October 18, 2020 (re-run of 2019 elections)
Reuters (January 25, 2023): Bolivians turn out for opposition-led ‘national assembly’ as protests could return
Regional Analysis
Sonny Lo Shiu Hing, Macau Business (January 27, 2023): Diplomatic wrestling between Taipei and Beijing over Honduras, Guatemala and Paraguay
Maria Eloisa Capurro, Bloomberg (January 27, 2023): About the Brazil-Argentina Not-a-Common Currency Idea
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (January 25, 2023): Latin American summit in Argentina claimed to defend democracy but did the opposite
AS/COA (January 25, 2023): A guide to 2023 Latin American elections
Alexander Busch, DW (January 24, 2023): The sur: Argentina, Brazil put common currency plan on ice
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023
Antigua and Barbuda Snap Elections: January 18, 2023
Trinidad and Tobago Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): January 20, 2023
Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023
Jamaica Local Elections: February 2023 (long overdue – date still not set)
Guyana Local Elections: March 13, 2023
Argentina, Gubernatorial Elections in Corrientes and Neuquen: March 26, 2023
Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023
Chile Constituent Assembly Elections: April/May 2023 (expected)
Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023
British Virgin Islands Assembly Election: May 2023 (due)
Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023
Argentina Presidential Primary: August 13, 2023
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 27, 2023
Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023
Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023
Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023
Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023
Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)
Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)
Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Asia
January 27, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023 and in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023 (followed by more state elections later this year and parliamentary elections next year)
India’s states have their own elected governments that have significant devolved power. Roughly one-third of them hold elections in 2023. First up: the northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, followed by votes in Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana (and possibly Jammu & Kashmir) later this year.
These state elections will set the tone for next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls, which determine who runs the government. Narendra Modi’s BJP is campaigning for a history-making third term.
Akshay Rout, Economic Times (January 27, 2023): 2023, the year of elections before the election year
Manyank Mishra, India Today (January 24, 2023): Why Odisha, Punjab, West Bengal and Telangana are so crucial for BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Shivam Vij, Gulf News (January 23, 2023): Why India’s 2024 elections will be fought on YouTube: YouTube is replacing TV for millions of Indians and politicians are making the most of it
Bangladesh Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament – largely symbolic role): February 19, 2023, followed by Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner.
Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”
Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country.
Anisur Rahman, PTI (January 25, 2023): Bangladesh to hold presidential election on Feb 19
Shafi Md Mostofa, The Diplomat (January 24, 2023): Big Powers Battle for Influence in Bangladesh: The South Asian country is being courted by the U.S., Russia, and China among others, and officials are making a beeline to Dhaka.
Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Shaikh Azizur Rahman, The Guardian (January 22, 2023): ‘They beat me with sticks’: Bangladesh opposition reels under crackdown as thousands arrested
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. The May elections are likely to pit Prayuth against the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra has announced her intention to run for prime minster this year.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. As Reuters notes: “Administrations loyal to Shinawatras have each been removed by the military or judicial rulings, adding fuel to a seemingly intractable political crisis that has ebbed and flowed in Thailand for over 17 years.”
Jeffery Hutton, Straits Times (January 27, 2023): Thailand faces tougher competition for high-tech foreign investments as election jitters mount
Reuters (January 26, 2023): Thai PM walks out of news conference over question on ex-leader Thaksin
Panarat Thepgumpanat and Chayut Setboonsarng, Reuters (January 26, 2023): Thailand, EU look to resume free trade talks by March
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Reuters (January 27, 2023): Myanmar army set to cement rule with tough new election criteria
Liam Scott, Foreign Policy (January 26, 2023): U.N. Rapporteur: Myanmar Crisis ‘Has Been Forgotten’: Two years after the coup, the world has moved on, but many Burmese can’t.
The Diplomat (January 25, 2023): Myanmar Military Spokesperson Expresses Uncertainty Over Junta Polls: Frequent resistance attacks have greatly complicated the holding of a stage-managed election this year.
David Hut, The Diplomat (January 25, 2023): How Does The Myanmar Crisis End? The military junta’s possible handover of power to a quasi-civilian “transition council” could create complications for the country’s resistance forces.
Ingyin Naing, Voice of America (January 24, 2023): Uncertainty Shrouds Myanmar Elections
The Irrawaddy (January 23, 2023): 13 Election Commission Offices Attacked by Resistance So Far: Myanmar Regime
Grant Peck, AP (January 23, 2023): Rights group files suit in Germany against Myanmar military: A human rights group and 16 individuals have filed a criminal complaint in Germany seeking punishment of Myanmar’s generals for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky and the former dictator and his family remain involved in politics.
On January 28, the pro-democracy, center-right Maldivian Democratic Party (currently in power) will hold a primary to decide its presidential candidate. Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih faces off against former president Mohamed Nasheed. Meanwhile, another former president, Abdulla Yameen, who is also brother-in-law of the former dictator, will be the candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Former defense minister Mohamed Nazim is also running.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. MDP is broadly pro-India while PPM is broadly pro-China.
Al Jazeera (January 28, 2023): Maldives ruling party holds high-stakes presidential primary: Democracy icon Mohamed Nasheed’s political future in balance as governing party voters head to the polls.
Chhotelal Kumar, The Geopolitics (January 25, 2023): Maldives’ Presidential Election and Possible Challenges for India
Taiwan Presidential Election: Early 2024 (due)
Taiwan’s presidential election is due next year. The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
Dan Lamothe, Washington Post (January 27, 2023): U.S. general warns troops that war with China is possible in two years: Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who oversees the Air Force’s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, cited the 2024 presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States as part of his rational
DW (January 26, 2023): Taiwan: Chen Chien-jen announced as new premier
Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia (January 26, 2023): Analysis: Xi puts top brain in charge of Taiwan unification strategy: Wang Huning tasked with creating alternative to ‘one country, two systems’
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
New Zealand’s October general elections got a bit more interesting following the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, considered a star on the global stage but under increasing pressure in New Zealand due to her authoritarian tendencies and failure to deliver on basic campaign promises.
Ardern cited personal reasons for her resignation, but under her leadership, the Labour Party lost a lot of support. Currently, the center-right Nationals are favored to win the elections, but a lot can happen in a few months.
Lucy Craymer, Reuters (January 25, 2023): New Zealand’s top PM contender wants to change central bank mandate, Ardern’s policies
AP (January 24, 2023): Chris Hipkins sworn in as New Zealand’s 41st prime minister
Josie Pagani, New York Times (January 24, 2023): Jacinda Ardern, the Star Who Didn’t Quite Deliver
Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll (January 24, 2023): New Zealand: Labour support at only 27.5% in December 2022 – down 22.5% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election before Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned
Herb Scribner, Axios (January 22, 2023): Chris Hipkins to replace Ardern as New Zealand’s prime minister
Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024
Indonesia has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for February 14, 2024, followed by provincial elections on November 27, 2024, ending speculation that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would seek to delay the election and extend his term.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.
Straits Times (January 27, 2023): Jokowi’s two sons likely to contest in Indonesia’s 2024 elections
Reuters (January 24, 2023): Indonesia’s FDI jumps in 2022, led by mineral processing
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (January 23, 2023): Indonesia’s Jokowi Registers All-Time High Approval Rating
Michael Vatikiotis, Globe and Mail (January 21, 2023): Is Indonesia morphing into an Islamic autocracy?
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Fiji General Elections: December 14, 2022
Fiji’s December 2022 elections toppled the government of former coup leader Frank Bainimarama by Sitiveni Rabuka, who himself also previously led a coup (Fiji has had four coups since the 1980s).
On the campaign trail, Rabuka ruled out a security pact with China and advocated for a return to closer relations with Australia.
Al Jazeera and Reuters (January 27, 2023): Fiji suspends police commissioner, ends China policing agreement
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/24/state-of-opposition-in-south-asia-pub-88835
Regional Analysis
Christine Rove, Stuff NZ (January 28, 2023): Pacific predictions: What’s on the horizon for 2023
David Hutt, DW (January 24, 2023): Is the EU losing the fight for human rights in Asia?
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Nepal Presidential Election (by Parliament): February 11, 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023
Bangladesh Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament – largely symbolic role): February 19, 2023
India, State Elections in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 7, 2023
Sri Lanka Local Elections: March 9, 2023
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Bhutan National Assembly Elections: March 2023 (due)
Sri Lanka Provincial Elections: March 2023 (due)
Japan Unified Local Elections: April 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
New Zealand, Niue General Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Eurasia
January 26, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes.
The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform.
Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Georgi Gotev, Euractiv (January 23, 2023): One year after tragic January events, Kazakhstan says it’s changed
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024
Andrey Pertsev, Carnegie Endowment (January 25, 2023): How the War in Ukraine Is Boosting Russian Politicians’ Careers
Moscow Times (January 25, 2023): Documentary on Jailed Kremlin Critic Alexei Navalny Nominated for Oscar
RFE/RL (January 24, 2023): Nobel Laureates Muratov, Ressa Urge Red Cross To Intervene On Behalf Of Navalny
Michael McFaul, Washington Post (January 24, 2023): Are we seeing the beginning of the end of Putinism?
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 and Presidential Election: Spring 2024 (due)
Daniel Boffey, The Guardian (January 26, 2023): ‘No return to the past’: the man leading Ukraine’s fightback against corruption
Reuters (January 24, 2023): Zelenskiy fires slew of top officials, cites need to clean up Ukraine
RFE/RL (January 24, 2023): Germany Gives Green Light To Send Leopard Tanks To Kyiv As Zelenskiy Purges Senior Ukrainian Leadership
Belarus Presidential Election: August 2025 (due)
IPS Journal (January 24, 2023): Belarus and China: Together through thick and thin? While economically speaking, China’s cooperation with Belarus is no longer as close as it was, politically, they continue to deepen their partnership
Regional Analysis
Kirill Nourzhanov, East Asia Forum (January 25, 2023): Central Asia’s authoritarians stare down a year of disorder
Vitaly Charushin, Modern Diplomacy (January 23, 2023): Putin’s USSR 2.0 project to be undermined by his satellites
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023
Kazakhstan Senate Elections: January 14, 2023
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023
Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Europe
January 25, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Czech Republic Presidential Runoff: January 27-28, 2023
Controversial former prime minister Andrej Babiš will face off against retired general Petr Pavel in the Czech Republic’s presidential runoff later this month. Incumbent Milos Zeman, who has been in power for 10 years and did not run for re-election, built closer ties with Russia and China.
Pavel, a former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, favors pro-West policies, while populist Babiš has criticized support for Ukraine and the EU more generally.
Reuters (January 24, 2023): Petr Pavel: who is the ex-army chief leading Czech presidential election race?
Peter Laca and Krystof Chamonikolas, Bloomberg (January 22, 2023): Ex-NATO General Leads Polls Before Czech Presidential Run-Off
NK News (January 20, 2023): How the Czech Republic positions itself between hawks and doves on North Korea: Prague both condemns the DPRK’s nukes and embraces cultural exchanges, setting itself up for engagement with Pyongyang
Reuters (January 19, 2023): Czech government survives no-confidence vote
Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023
Henri Vanhanen, Lawfare (January 25, 2023): Finland in 2023: Beyond Military Nonalignment and a Revanchist Putin
Jari Tanner and Karl Ritter, AP (January 24, 2023): Finland’s top diplomat hints at joining NATO without Sweden
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)
Reuters (January 24, 2023): Bulgaria gears for its fifth election in two years on April 2
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By July 2023
AP (January 25, 2023): Greek government faces no confidence vote over wiretaps
Thanos Davelis and Tom Ellis, Kathimerini (January 24, 2023 – podcast): The message from Davos: Greece is back
Elena Becatoros, AP (January 19, 2023): Greek PM Mitsotakis: ‘We will not go to war with Turkey’
Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)
Reuters (January 25, 2023): Slovak parliament opens way to September early election
Reuters (January 22, 2023): Slovakia’s former coalition heads agree to early parliamentary elections
AP (January 21, 2023): Slovakia holds referendum to enable snap election
Hungary Today (January 19, 2023): Slovak Minister Warns Against a “Hungarian System”
Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)
AFP (January 21, 2023): Thousands protest against Spanish govt in Madrid
Past Europe Elections
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Bosnia now has a government following October 2022 elections. For the first time in over a decade, SDA, the main Bosniak party, will not be part of the government.
The government was formed very quickly by Bosnian standards – typically, it takes more than a year, but this time, only three months. The new prime minister will be ethnic Croat Borjana Kristo.
Denitsa Koseva at bne IntelliNews notes: “When Kristo was nominated in December, she said she would lead the government towards restarting the process of integration in the EU. Since then, in mid-December, Bosnia was granted EU candidate status after years of waiting.”
AP (January 25, 2023): New Bosnian government approved 3 months after elections
RFE/RL (January 25, 2023): New Bosnian Governing Council Under Croat Kristo Approved By Lawmakers
Denitsa Koseva, bne IntelliNews (January 25, 2023): Bosnia appoints new pro-EU government
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Sweden’s 2022 elections brought in a center-right coalition government led by the Moderate Party, with a confidence and supply agreement with the populist Sweden Democrats.
Niclas Rolander and Ott Ummelas, Bloomberg (January 25, 2023): Why Turkey Is Still Blocking Sweden’s NATO Accession
Guney Yildiz, Forbes (January 24, 2023): Turkiye’s Blocking Sweden’s NATO Accession Have Nothing To Do With The Quran Desecration In Stockholm
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
The United Kingdom held local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly, on May 5.
Northern Ireland’s nationalist Sinn Féin became the biggest party in the Assembly following these elections. However, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has been boycotting the assembly, and as a result, Northern Ireland has not had a government for nearly a year.
As a result, snap elections are required and could be called.
Aoife Moore, Times of London (January 22, 2023): Americans added $1m to Sinn Fein coffers in one year
Euronews with AFP (January 20, 2023): Clock ticking on Northern Ireland elections after Stormont stalement deadline passes
Matthew Weaver and Lisa O’Carroll, The Guardian (January 20, 2023): Leo Varadkar admits regrets over Northern Ireland protocol: Ireland’s taoiseach regrets Brexit arrangement imposed without agreement of unionists and nationalists
Regional Analysis
Laura Clancy, Sarah Austin, and Jordan Lippert, Pew Research Center (January 25, 2023): Many countries in Europe get a new government at least every two years
Cain Burdeau, Courthouse News Service (January 25, 2023): Europe’s got a big, creepy spyware problem – and it’s going unchecked
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2023
Several European countries hold elections that determine who runs the government: Cyprus (fun fact: Cyprus is the EU’s only full presidential system), Monaco, Estonia, Andorra, Finland, Greece, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, and Spain.
In addition, Montenegro and Slovakia appear on track to hold snap elections. And Bulgaria could hold its fourth general election in three years.
Moreover, a number of other countries in Europe could hold snap elections at short notice – it happens.
Slovakia Referendum on Early Elections: January 21, 2023
Czech Republic Presidential Runoff: January 27-28, 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 29, 2023
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 5, 2023
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 5, 2023
Cyprus Presidential Runoff: February 12, 2023
Germany, Berlin State Elections: February 12, 2023
Italy, Lazio and Lombardy Regional Elections: February 12, 2023
Estonia General Elections: March 5, 2023
albniaLithuania Local Elections: March 5, 2023
Liechtenstein Local Elections: March 5, 2023
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 15, 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: March 19, 2023 (snap parliamentary elections possible)
Andorra Parliamentary Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 23, 2023
Kosovo Partial Local Elections: April 23, 2023
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023
Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Northern Ireland: May 18, 2023
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Spain, Regional Elections in Various Regions: June 25, 2023
Luxembourg Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Greece Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Norway Local Elections: September 11, 2023
Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023 (due)
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: October 2023 (due)
Portugal, Regional Elections in Madeira: October 2023 (due)
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections (due – earlier elections possible): November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)
Switzerland Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): December 12, 2023
Andorra Local Elections: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Middle East
January 24, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Ongoing Middle East Elections
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing
Lebanon’s fractious parliament is in the process of selecting a president. As part of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the president is always a Maronite Christian (and conversely, a Sunni serves as prime minister and a Shi’ite as speaker of the parliament).
The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2022 in the context of a political and economic crisis exacerbated by the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut. In those elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats.
The fragmented parliament has not been able to pick a new president, leaving a vacuum following the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022. Aoun was a strong ally of Hezbollah. Michel Moawad, an anti-Hezbollah candidate, has won the most votes on several ballots, but not a majority. Voting will continue until someone can break the stalemate.
BBC (January 20, 2023): Lebanon MPs sit in as 11th vote for president fails
Jamie Prentis, The National UAE (January 18, 2023): What next for Lebanon’s opposition in presidential race, Michel Moawad or Plan B?
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Tunisia Legislative Runoffs: January 29, 2023
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, Saied took the country down an authoritarian path and took actions that his opponents said subvert democracy. As a result, protests have been taking place.
Adel Al Thabiti, Anadolu Agency (January 22, 2023): Ennahda leader calls for restoring democracy in Tunisia
AFP (January 21, 2023): Tunisia Detains Critic of President, Says Lawyer
Turkey General Elections: May 14, 2023
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.
While Turkey remains a member of NATO, it has in recent years moved closer to Russia and other authoritarian countries.
AP (January 22, 2023): Erdogan: Turkey Elections to Be Held May 14
Stratfor (January 20, 2023): As Elections Near, Turkey Will Still Block Sweden and Finland’s NATO Aspirations
Selcan Hacaoglu, Bloomberg (January 20, 2023): Erdogan Warns Greece to Beware ‘Crazy Turks’ to Fire Up Crowd
Nikhil Kumar, GRID (January 19, 2023): What an Erdogan loss in Turkey’s presidential election would mean for the country and the world
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal (January 18, 2023): Erdogan Targets a Political Rival in Turkey: A prosecutor seeks to dissolve the second largest opposition party.
Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible and increasingly likely)
Following Pakistan’s turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats. However, Khan was ousted in an April 2022 vote of no confidence and former opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister.
Since then, Khan has sought to force early elections in various ways.
PTI (January 24, 2023): Pakistan govt wary of IMF-mandated ‘tough decisions’ in election year
Michael Kugelman, East Asia Forum (January 21, 2023): Pakistan still treading water in 2023
Arifa Noor, Dawn (January 18, 2023): Opinion: After the dissolution of Punjab assembly, early elections in Pakistan seem near inevitable
Jibran Ahmad, Reuters (January 18, 2023): Ex-PM Khan pushes for early Pakistan election by dissolving second provincial govt
Kamran Haider, Bloomberg (January 18, 2023): Another Imran Khan-Backed Pakistan Province Calls Early Election
Algeria Presidential Election: December 2024 (due)
Mass protests in 2019 ended the 20-year rule of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, but former PM Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who was close to Bouteflika, won the subsequent presidential election. Protesters from the Hirak movement have pushed for greater political reform, but the country’s traditional power centers have largely held.
AFP (January 18, 2023): Algeria frees opposition figure after vow to quit politics
Egypt Elections: 2025 (due)
Nosmot Gbadamosi, Foreign Policy (January 18, 2023): Why China and Egypt Are Growing Closer
Past Middle East Elections
Israel Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 1, 2022
Israel has held five sets of general elections over the past four years. The most recent returned Bibi Netanyahu to power, this time heading the country’s most right-wing government to date.
Gwen Ackerman and Mohammad Tayseer, Bloomberg (January 24, 2023): Netanyahu Meets With Jordan’s King After Tensions Over Holy Site
Yoni Ben Menachem, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (January 23, 2023): What are the Prospects for Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel?
Jonathan Schachter, The Hill (January 18, 2023): Netanyahu’s agenda and Biden’s opportunity
Reuters (January 18, 2023): Analysis: Hamas sees West Bank as battleground with new Israel gov’t
Kuwait Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 29, 2022
Although the monarchy appoints the government, Kuwait has one of the most powerful parliaments in the Gulf.
AP notes: “In September, voters sent conservative Islamist figures and two women to the assembly in the second election in less than two years. The election results were seen as a mandate for change amid a prolonged period of gridlock between the Cabinet and the 50-member assembly.”
AP (January 23, 2023): Kuwait’s government resigns amid struggle with assembly
Iran Presidential Election: June 18, 2021
Daphne Psaledakis and Gabriela Baczynska, Reuters (January 23, 2023): U.S., EU, UK impose new sanctions on Iran over protest crackdown
Jomana Karadsheh, Tamara Qiblawi and Artemis Moshtaghian, CNN (January 23, 2023): Iran’s regime is trying to execute its way out of trouble
Euronews with AFP (January 22, 2023): ‘Signs of cracks’ within Iran’s government as protests endure
Suzanne Kianpour, Politico (January 22, 2023): The Women of Iran Are Not Backing Down
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023
Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold elections that determine who runs the government. In addition, long-overdue elections in the Palestinian Authority and Libya could take place in 2023, but don’t hold your breath.
Tunisia Legislative Runoffs: January 29, 2023
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): continues in January 2023
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 14, 2023
Lebanon Local Elections: May 31, 2023 (postponed from 2022 – additional delays possible)
Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due – delayed from 2022)
Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible)
Israel Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 2023 (due)
Iraq Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Africa
January 23, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Nigeria General Elections: February 25, 2023
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short, with low turnout, fraud, and violence. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The presidential front-runners include the nominees of the two biggest parties: Bola Tinuba from the governing “sort of left” All Progressives Congress Party (APC) and Atiku Abubakar from the main opposition “sort of right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In addition, Peter Obi from the Labour Party has gathered momentum among younger voters and is seen as a possible contender. Somewhat ironically, his supporters call themselves “Obidients,” despite positioning themselves as an anti-establishment movement.
Nigeria is the second-biggest oil and gas producer in Africa, and also arguably has the biggest economy on the continent.
Ben Ezeamalu, The Africa Report (January 23, 2023): Nigeria 2023: Electoral umpire helpless in political parties’ vote-buying antics
Jideofor Adibe, The Conversation (January 22, 2023): Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election: 10 factors that could affect the outcome
BBC (January 21, 2023): Nigeria elections 2023: The allegations against the presidential contenders
Ope Adetayo, The Guardian (January 19, 2023): ‘Obi understands’: young Nigerians swell support of presidential hopeful
Reuters (January 18, 2023): Nigeria will not postpone presidential vote – election chief
Ope Adetayo, Al Jazeera (January 18, 2023): Attacks on electoral commission spark concerns for Nigeria polls: Experts say the new wave of attacks takes insecurity in Nigeria into uncharted territory ahead of the elections.
AFP (January 17, 2023): Young Nigerians flock to get voting cards for February election: Nearly 10 million new voters have been registered for the February 25 ballot, 84 percent of them people under age 34.
Cameroon Indirect Senate Elections: March 12, 2023 (by local councilors)
Moki Edwin Kindzeka at Voice of America notes: “Separatists in English-speaking western Cameroon launched their rebellion in 2017 after what they said was years of discrimination by the country’s French-speaking majority. The conflict has killed more than 3,500 people and displaced more than a half-million, according to the United Nations.”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, Voice of America (January 20, 2023): Two Election Officials Killed in NW Cameroon as Separatists Vow to Disrupt Senate Elections
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold general elections in July 2023. They will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, governs in an authoritarian, repressive manner.
Jason Burke and Nyasha Chingono, The Guardian (January 22, 2023): ‘The Crocodile has not changed’: Zimbabwe opposition warns of election violence
CAJnews (January 18, 2023): Crackdown escalates leading to Zimbabwe elections
Robert Lansing Institute (January 17, 2023): Scenarios: Mnangagwa likely to save presidency amid risks of violence in Zimbabwe after elections
Eswatini Parliamentary and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is an absolute monarchy. The country does hold parliamentary elections, but the parliament does not actually have much power, and the elections are tightly controlled, without much choice for voters.
Itumeleng Mafisa, IOL (January 23, 2023): Saftu condemns assassination of eSwatini political activist and human rights lawyer
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023
Liberia’s last elections, in 2017, brought the first peaceful transition of power since 1944, but the country still faces some challenges as it seeks to consolidate democracy. President George Weah, a former football player,
Nicholas Norbrook, The Africa Report (January 20, 2023): Liberia’s George Weah: Slipping one into the net
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023
The DRC’s last elections, in December 2018, took place after multiple delays and were mired in controversy and dispute. Nonetheless, they did produce the first peaceful transfer of power in the history of the country’s independence, with former opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi being declared the winner of the presidential poll (even though election observers from the highly-trusted Catholic Church said their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu).
The DRC faces numbers political and security crises, exacerbated by conflicts over massive mineral wealth. By some estimates, the country has untapped reserves worth $24 trillion, and with increased interest in electronic vehicles and other technologies that require rare earths, this has become a subject of increased interest internationally.
Due to its size and central location, conflicts from neighboring countries spill over into the DRC. The horrific conflicts happening in the eastern part of the country send shockwaves through the entire region.
Stratfor (January 19, 2023): Congo: Government Expects $6 Billion Overhaul in Mining Deals
Agenzia Fides (January 17, 2023): Eastern DRC: not only jihadists but a complex network of local and foreign interests
Senegal Presidential Election: February 2024 (due)
Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020).
Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production.
Africanews and AFP (January 23, 2023): Senegal opposition leader to face rape trial: lawyers
South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)
Mogomotsi Magma and Gerald Imray, AP (January 19, 2023): Russia, China to hold naval drills off South Africa
Past Africa Elections
Tanzania General Elections: October 28, 2020
Dickson Ng’hily, The Citizen (January 22, 2023): Chadema outlines strategy as nationwide rallies start
Regional Analysis
Teresa Nogueira Pinto, GIS Reports (January 23, 2023): Europe’s energy switch may boost African producers: As Europe shuns Russian energy supplies, Africa is poised to increase its oil and natural gas exports to the continent.
African Development Bank (January 19, 2023): Africa’s economic growth to outpace global forecast in 2023-2024 – African Development Bank biannual report
Afrobarometer (January 19, 2023): Africans want more democracy, but their leaders still aren’t listening
ICIR Nigeria (January 18, 2023): Repression and resistance: how a new generation challenges African autocrats and their international allies
Tanya Mehra LL.M and Méryl Demuynck, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (January 17, 2023): Raising the stakes against the Wagner Group: From mercenaries to a designated terrorist group?
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2023
Seven countries in Africa are scheduled to elections that will determine who heads the government: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Liberia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In addition, Sudan has talked about holding long-delays general elections in July, but additional delays are possible.
Benin Legislative Elections: January 8, 2023
Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 24, 2023
Nigeria General Elections: February 25, 2023
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 11, 2023
Cameroon Indirect Senate Elections (by members of local councils): March 12, 2023
Mauritania Legislative and Local Elections: May 13, 2023
Gambia Local Elections: May 13, 2023
Mauritania Legislative and Local Runoffs: May 18, 2023
Sierra Leone Presidential and Legislative Elections: June 24, 2023
Mali Local Elections: June 2023 (due – delays possible)
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Sudan General Elections: July 2023 (tentative – delays possible)
Gabon Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini Parliamentary and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)
Gabon Legislative Elections: September 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023
Mozambique Local Elections: October 11, 2023
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Imo State, Kogi State, and Bayelsa State: November 11, 2023
Madagascar Presidential Election: October 2023 (due)
Mali Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due – delays possible)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023
Togo Legislative and Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections (due in 2023)
Comoros Gubernatorial Elections (due in 2023)
Ghana Local Elections (due in 2023)
Guinea-Bissau Local Elections (due in 2023)
Guinea Local Elections (due in 2023 – delays possible to to coup situation)
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