May 26, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
A boat on the Chaophraya River in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Chainwit (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.
Al Jazeera (May 25, 2023): Cambodia’s opposition disqualified from election, appeal fails
Luke Hunt, The Diplomat (May 24, 2023): Cambodia’s Hun Sen Tells Countries to Stay Silent on Election Process
Sam Rainsy, Nikkei Asia (May 9, 2023): International community must not accept Cambodia’s ‘election’
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky and the former dictator and his family remain involved in politics.
On January 28, the pro-democracy, center-right Maldivian Democratic Party (currently in power) held a primary to decide its presidential candidate. Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih defeated former president Mohamed Nasheed. However, the campaign was bitter and Nasheed has not yet accepted the results or endorsed Solih, which threatens to split the pro-democracy vote ahead of the general election.
Meanwhile, another former president, Abdulla Yameen, who is also brother-in-law of the former dictator, will be the candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Former defense minister Mohamed Nazim is also running.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. MDP is broadly pro-India while PPM is broadly pro-China.
Mimrah Ghafoor, The Diplomat (May 20, 2023): Damaging and Disingenuous: Evaluating the ‘India Out’ Campaign in Maldives
Surinder Singh Oberoi, Newsdrum (May 18, 2023): Tensions rise in Maldives as Speaker Nasheed forms new political party ahead of Presidential election
Radhey Tambi, The Diplomat (May 5, 2023): India Can’t Afford to Lose Maldives Again
Robbie Newton, Human Rights Watch (May 3, 2023): Maldives Press Freedom in Danger
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner.
Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”
Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country.
Ruma Paul, Reuters (May 25, 2023): Bangladesh promises free, fair elections in response to US visa curbs
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024
Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Recently, various high-level KMT officials, including former president Ma Ying-Jeoh, have traveled to the mainland. Ma’s visit marks the first time a president of Taiwan has visited the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.
Bloomberg (May 25, 2023): Taiwan Downgrades Growth Outlook Again as Election Looms
Rishi Jyengar, Foreign Policy (May 15, 2023): Taiwan’s Trump Wants to Make Nice With Beijing: Foxconn founder Terry Gou will be hoping his pro-China message finds more takers than it did in 2020.
Cindy Wang and Samson Ellis, Bloomberg (May 19, 2023): Why Taiwan’s 2024 Elections Matter From Beijing to Washington
AFP (May 7, 2023): Foxconn Founder Vows to ‘Preserve Peace’ With China if Elected Taiwan President
Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024
Indonesia is due to hold general elections in February 2024, but the Central Jakarta District Court issued a surprise ruling that would delay the elections to 2025 at the earliest. The ruling was made in response to a complaint from PRIMA, a new political party, which contested the election commission’s decision not to allow it to compete in the 2024 elections.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.
Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy (May 22, 2023): In Jakarta, Political Kingmaking Starts Now
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due), and General Elections: 2024 (Following state elections in Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya in February 2023 and in Karnataka on May 10, 2023)
India’s states have their own elected governments that have significant devolved power. Roughly one-third of them hold elections in 2023. First up: the northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, followed by votes in Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana (and possibly Jammu & Kashmir) later this year.
These state elections will set the tone for next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls, which determine who runs the government. Narendra Modi’s BJP is campaigning for a history-making third term.
Karnataka, whose capital is the tech hub of Bangalore, currently has a BP government. “Winning Karnataka — the state is home to Bengaluru, India’s IT hub — would energize Rahul Gandhi’s opposition Congress party.”
Rhea Mogul, CNN (May 24, 2023): ‘Modi is the boss’: Australian leader gives India’s prime minister a rock star welcome
Al Jazeera (May 23, 2023): Overseas Indians cheer for Modi at rally in Australia’s Sydney
Rhea Mogul, CNN (May 18, 2023): India’s ruling BJP has lost its only southern stronghold. What does it mean for Modi?
Astha Rajvanshi, Time (May 16, 2023): A Crucial State Election Loss Underscores Modi’s Waning Grasp in South India
AP (May 13, 2023): Hindu nationalist party loses crucial state election ahead of India’s national vote
Hannah Ellis-Petersen, The Guardian (May 13, 2023): India’s Congress party defeats Narendra Modi’s BJP in Karnataka state elections
Australia, Constitutional Referendum on Indigenous Voice to Parliament: Due in 2023
Angelica Silva, ABC News Australia (May 14, 2023): What is the Indigenous Voice to Parliament? Here’s how it would work and who’s for and against it
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023
Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) held presidential elections in 2022 that returned José Ramos-Horta to office after he defeated incumbent Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo. Ramos-Horta was a leader in the country’s independence movement and served as president from 2008-2012, and before that as prime minister and foreign minister.
Following the 2022 election, Ramos-Horta turned heads around the world when he announced that he would expand bilateral ties with China.
Timor-Leste is a semi-presidential system, with the prime minister holding significant powers. Currently, the prime minister is José Maria Vasconcelos, widely known by his nom de guerre “Taur Matan Ruak,” from Fretilin, the former resistance movement that is now one of Timor-Leste’s two major parties, the other being CNRT, which is Ramos-Horta’s party.
Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although many challenges remain.
Reuters (May 20, 2023): East Timor heads to the polls in parliamentary election
Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. Prayuth is running for another term, but so is his mentor, fellow royalist military officer Prawit Wongsuwan. They will face the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is running.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Scott Christiansen, Brookings Institution (May 25, 2023): Thailand’s election of the century
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (May 15, 2023): Thailand’s Elections: Potential Coalition Government Scenarios
Al Jazeera (May 14, 2023): Thailand election results: Opposition trounces military parties
Jonathan Head, BBC (May 11, 2023): Thailand election: The party they can’t stop winning
Japan Unified Local Elections and Parliamentary By-Elections: April 9, 2023 and April 23, 2023 (next national elections due in 2025)
Elaine Lies and Yoshifumi Takemoto, Reuters (May 22, 2023): Riding on G7 success, Japan PM Kishida eyes early election
Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg (April 30, 2023): Japan PM’s Support Tops 50% Amid Speculation on Early Vote
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: November 2023 (due)
Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum: Between October and December 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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A Bird’s-Eye View of Elections
This Week
Europe
August 2, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 8, 2023 (next federal election by October 2025)
Ben Knight, DW (July 31, 2023): German intel: AfD taken over by extremist factions
Hans von der Burchard, Politico (July 30, 2023): German far right picks EU lead candidate, wants European anti-migrant ‘fortress’
Reuters (July 29, 2023): Thousands protest against Germany’s far-right AfD party
DW (July 28, 2023 – video): Germany’s far-right AfD expected to make gains in Bavaria
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 29, 2023
Sofia Globe (July 29, 2023): Bulgaria to hold 2023 municipal and mayoral elections on October 29
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: November 11, 2023 (due – earlier elections possible)
DW (August 1, 2023): Poland’s far-right Confederation party set to be kingmaker
Wojciech Kośč, Politico (July 27, 2023): Outcry in Poland after claims that prosecutors drained cesspit in abortion probe: Reproductive rights dominate pre-election debate in Poland after reports of law enforcement targeting women for suspected abortions.
Finland Presidential Election: January 28, 2024
YLE News (July 28, 2023): Presidential election campaign period officially begins; Aaltola to announce decision next week
European Union, European Parliament Elections: June 6-9, 2024
Nicholas Vinocur and Suzanne Lynch, Politico (August 2, 2023): The Schemer: Macron’s man is plotting to run the EU
Eddy Wax, Politico (July 28, 2023): European Parliament set to grow by 15 MEPs in 2024: France, Spain and the Netherlands set to get two more seats each in next mandate.
North Macedonia General Elections: Due in 2024 (early elections possible)
Reuters (July 30, 2023): Ethnic Albanian party in North Macedonia offers deal to clear the way to join EU
Past Europe Elections
Spain General Elections: July 23, 2023
Joan Faus, Reuters (August 2, 2023): Catalan kingmaker tells Spain’s Sanchez not to take support for granted
David Cutts and Paul Kennedy, London School of Economics (July 31, 2023): Is Spain heading for another general election?
Barney Jopson, Financial Times (July 31, 2023): Madrid’s Isabel Díaz Ayuso boosted as leader-in-waiting by right’s election setback
Aitor Hernández-Morales, Politico (July 29, 2023): Spain election repeat more likely after expat vote count: Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s already narrow path to a new administration just became trickier.
Italy General Elections: September 25, 2023
James Rothwell, The Telegraph (July 30, 2023): Italy intends to leave ‘atrocious’ partnership with China
China’s Malign Influence
Shannon Thaler, New York Post (July 27, 2023): TikTok has been pushing Chinese propaganda to millions of users in Europe: analysis
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2023
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 31, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 11, 2023
Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 8, 2023
Luxembourg General Elections: October 8, 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 29, 2023
Finland, Åland Elections: October 2023 (due)
Portugal, Regional Elections in Madeira: October 2023 (due)
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections (due – earlier elections possible): November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)
Switzerland Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): December 12, 2023
Andorra Local Elections: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Middle East
August 1, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Ongoing Middle East Elections
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing
Lebanon’s fractious parliament is in the process of selecting a president. As part of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the president is always a Maronite Christian (and conversely, a Sunni serves as prime minister and a Shi’ite as speaker of the parliament).
The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2022 in the context of a political and economic crisis exacerbated by the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut. In those elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats.
The fragmented parliament has not been able to pick a new president, leaving a vacuum following the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022.
Maya Gebeily at Reuters notes: “The leadership crisis reflects divisions among the ruling elite that has been unable to install a president or fully empowered cabinet for over a year, while leaving the financial crisis to fester, largely unaddressed, since 2019.”
Maya Gebeily, Reuters (July 28, 2023): Lebanon’s central bank faces uncertainty without appointment of new governor
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Pakistan General Elections: By November 10, 2023 (early elections possible)
Pakistan is due to hold elections later this year amid political turmoil and multiple crises. Shweta Sharma at The Independent says: “Analysts say there are hopes that the election can bring an end to a period of deep political uncertainty since [former PM Imran] Khan was ousted in a vote of no confidence, as well as install a government with the mandate to tackle one of South Asia’s worst economic crises, exacerbated by last year’s devastating floods.”
Shweta Sharma, The Independent (August 1, 2023): Fears of more political violence as Pakistan prepares for elections – with or without Imran Khan
AP (July 31, 2023): Pakistan buries dead after 54 killed in a bombing at pro-Taliban cleric’s election rally
Anwarullah Khan and Riaz Khan at the AP note: “The bombing came hours before Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrived in Islamabad, where he signed new agreements to boost trade and economic ties to mark a decade of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a sprawling package under which China has invested $10 billion in Pakistan over 10 years, according to Sharif.”
AP (July 31, 2023): IS Behind Pro-Taliban Election Rally Bombing in Pakistan
Adnan Aamir, Nikkei Asia (July 26, 2023): Imran Khan tells Pakistan’s military to stay out of politics as election nears
Iraq Regional Elections: December 18, 2023
Sinan Mahmoud at The National notes: “After the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, parliamentary and provincial council elections were introduced as the main pillar for democracy. Provincial councils play a vital role as the sub-national legislative authority, as well as devising localized development plans.”
Sinan Mahmoud, The National UAE (July 30, 2023): Iraq’s electoral commission extends party registration deadline for provincial polls
Palestinian Authority General Elections: Long Overdue
Palestinian Authority elections are long overdue. President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 18 of a four-year term. Elections were finally scheduled in 2021, but canceled at the last minute.
In 2007, Hamas gained control of Gaza, leading to a rift between it and the Palestinian Authority, headquartered in the West Bank and led by Abbas’s Fatah party.
Neville Teller, Jerusalem Post (August 1, 2023): Is unity between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority possible?
Qassam Muaddi, The New Arab (July 31, 2023): Why breaking the deadlock in Palestinian politics remains elusive
Al Jazeera (July 30, 2023): Palestinian rival governments form ‘reconciliation committee’: In latest attempt at reconciliation, Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh have met for rare face-to-face talks in Egypt.
Past Middle East Elections
Turkey General Elections: May 14, 2023
Kristina Jovanovski, The Media Line (July 30, 2023): Turkey’s constitutional conundrum: Erdogan’s ‘libertarian’ pledge raises alarm bells: The Turkish president’s desire to replace the post-coup constitution fuels concerns about autocracy and civil liberties
Martin Makaryan, Inkstick Media (July 28, 2023): Turkey’s Young People Wonder What’s Next As Erdoğan Starts Another Term
Regional Analysis
Joost Hiltermann, Foreign Affairs (August 1, 2023): Is the Middle East’s Makeover a Mirage?
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): ongoing
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 7, 2023
Israel Local Elections: October 31, 2023
Pakistan General Elections: By November 10, 2023 (early elections possible)
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)
Iraq Regional Elections: December 18, 2023
Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: November 18, 2023 (delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Africa
July 17, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Central African Republic Constitutional Referendum: July 30, 2023
Africanews (July 17, 2023): Central African Republic: Touadera launches campaign for new constitution referendum
Al Jazeera (July 17, 2023): Wagner forces arrive in CAR before referendum: The constitutional referendum on July 30 could abolish term limits and allow President Touadera to run for office in 2025
Africanews and AFP (July 15, 2023): CAR: A few hundreds rally against draft Constitution
Andres Schipani, Financial Times (July 13, 2023): Wagner faces challenge in African stronghold: Divisive vote in Central African Republic is first serious test for the mercenary group since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny
Zimbabwe General Elections: August 23, 2023
Ngala Killian Chimtom, Crux (July 12, 2023): Zimbabwe bishops urge August elections to be ‘different’
Lenin Ndebele, News24 (July 12, 2023): Zimbabwe elections: Banning Kasukuwere ‘an own goal’, says opposition
Farai Mutsaka, Christian Science Monitor (July 10, 2023): Free, fair election? Zimbabwe government cracks down on opposition
Gabon Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 26, 2023
AFP (July 10, 2023): Gabon’s President Bongo says will vie for a third term in August
Madagascar
Africanews with AFP (July 12, 2023):
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023
Melissa Chemam with RFI (July 17, 2023): Political killing in DRC casts a shadow over plans for December elections
Reuters (July 13, 2023): Congo opposition spokesman shot dead months before election
Senegal Presidential Election: February 2024 (due)
Africanews (July 15, 2023): Senegal: Opposition politician Sonko declared presidential candidate by his party
Nick, Roll, Al Jazeera (July 14, 2023): Succeeding Sall: Who will be Senegal’s next president in 2024?
Wahany Johnson Sambou, Africanews (July 10, 2023): Senegal gearing up for 2024 elections with front runners undecided yet
South Sudan General Elections: 2024 (maybe)
Fred Oluoch, The East African (July 10, 2023): Numerous hurdles ahead of South Sudan’s first-ever general election
Selam Tadesse Demissie, Institute for Security Studies (July 10, 2023): Sudan’s crisis could delay South Sudan’s already slow transition
Past Africa Elections
Sierra Leone Presidential and Legislative Elections: June 24, 2023
Yinka Ibukun, Bloomberg (July 14, 2023): US Questions Vote That Extended Sierra Leone President’s Mandate
United States Department of State (July 14, 2023): On Sierra Leone’s Election
Equatorial Guinea Snap General Elections: November 20, 2022
AFP (July 10, 2023): EU Condemns Jailing Of E.Guinea Opposition Figure
Angola General Elections: August 24, 2022
ACI Africa (July 13, 2023): Catholic Bishops in Angola Advocate for Municipal Government Structure
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2023
Seven countries in Africa are scheduled to elections that will determine who heads the government: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Liberia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In addition, Sudan has talked about holding long-delays general elections in July, but additional delays are possible.
Mali Local Elections: June 2023 (due – delays possible)
Zimbabwe General Elections: August 23, 2023
Gabon Presidential Election: August 26, 2023
Eswatini Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 29, 2023
Gabon Legislative Elections: September 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023
Mozambique Local Elections: October 11, 2023
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Imo State, Kogi State, and Bayelsa State: November 11, 2023
Madagascar Presidential Election: October 2023 (due)
Mali Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due – delays possible)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023
Togo Legislative and Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections (due in 2023)
Comoros Gubernatorial Elections (due in 2023)
Ghana Local Elections (due in 2023)
Guinea-Bissau Local Elections (due in 2023)
Guinea Local Elections (due in 2023 – delays possible to to coup situation)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Americas
July 15, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Ecuador Snap Presidential Election: August 20, 2023
Yury Garcia and Alexandra Valencia, Reuters (July 13, 2023): Surging Guayaquil violence highlights security ahead of Ecuador presidential vote
Guatemala Presidential Runoff: August 20, 2023
John Lavenburg, Crux (July 14, 2023): Faith-based groups sound alarm about fairness of Guatemala elections
Eyder Peralta, NPR (July 13, 2023): A top Guatemalan party is barred, throwing the presidential election into the unknown
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023 (Presidential primaries on August 13, 2023)
Americas Quarterly (July 13, 2023 – podcast): Argentina’s Election: It’s (Finally) On
Nicolás Misculin, Reuters (July 12, 202): Argentina’s 2023 presidential primaries tough to call, pollsters say
Buenos Aires Times (July 8, 2023): Sergio Massa’s Argentina election bid puts IMF staff in a bind
Reuters (July 8, 2023): Argentina Inflation Seen Moderating, But Likely To Remain In Triple-digit At 142%
Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023 (presidential election due in 2024)
Alonso Moleiro, El País (July 14, 2023): Venezuela says it will not accept European observation during 2024 presidential elections: The stance comes after the European Parliament condemned the ban on María Corina Machado, a frontrunner in the polls, from public office
Regina Garcia Cano, AP (July 13, 2023): Venezuela government’s ban on longtime foe draws attention to the opposition’s presidential primary: Maria Corina Machado has been a longtime foe of Venezuela’s government, and not exactly a unifying figure for its critics
Reuters (July 13, 2023): Venezuela presidential opposition hopefuls call for unity, private investment
Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations (July 10, 2023): U.S. Policy Toward Venezuela Takes a Body Blow: Biden administration policy toward Venezuela was based on negotiating regime political concessions in exchange for lifting sanctions. But repression is growing and the policy is failing
CNN (July 8, 2023 – video): ‘The world is starting to understand we will defeat Maduro,’ says Venezuelan opposition politician
Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023
Santiago Triana Sánchez, El País (July 14, 2023): El Salvador’s mega-prisons as an electoral promise in Colombia: Diego Molano and Jaime Arizabaleta, pre-candidates for the mayoralties of Bogotá and Cali, have proposed building prisons inspired by Nayib Bukele’s crusade against crime
El Salvador General Elections: February 4, 2024
AFP (July 10, 2023): Party of El Salvador leader backs his quest for re-election: El Salvador’s ruling party on Sunday gave the green light to President Nayib Bukele in his quest to seek re-election next year, as critics question the legality of a second consecutive term
Mexico General Elections: July 2024
AP (July 14, 2023): Mexican president continues attacking opposition candidate, despite electoral agency’s order to stop
Mark Stevenson, AP (July 10, 2023): Mexico’s president breaks with tradition in quarrel with scrappy opposition upstart
Christine Murray and Michael Stott, Financial Times (July 10, 2023): Politics trumps trade in US and Mexico ahead of 2024 elections
Canada Federal Elections: Due by October 2025 – snap elections possible (various provincial and local elections due between now and then)
Ian Bailey, Globe and Mail (July 9, 2023): Over half of Canadians want Trudeau, Poilievre replaced as party leaders before next election, poll suggests
Regional Analysis
Vera Bergengruen, Time (July 11, 2023): ‘The Long Game.’ China’s Online Influence Campaign in Latin America
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023
Argentina Presidential Primaries: August 13, 2023
Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: August 14, 2023
Ecuador Snap Presidential Election: August 20, 2023
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 20, 2023
Argentina, Provincial Elections in Mendoza and Entre Ríos: September 24, 2023
Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023
Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023
Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023
Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023
Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023
Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)
Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)
Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Asia
May 26, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.
Al Jazeera (May 25, 2023): Cambodia’s opposition disqualified from election, appeal fails
Luke Hunt, The Diplomat (May 24, 2023): Cambodia’s Hun Sen Tells Countries to Stay Silent on Election Process
Sam Rainsy, Nikkei Asia (May 9, 2023): International community must not accept Cambodia’s ‘election’
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky and the former dictator and his family remain involved in politics.
On January 28, the pro-democracy, center-right Maldivian Democratic Party (currently in power) held a primary to decide its presidential candidate. Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih defeated former president Mohamed Nasheed. However, the campaign was bitter and Nasheed has not yet accepted the results or endorsed Solih, which threatens to split the pro-democracy vote ahead of the general election.
Meanwhile, another former president, Abdulla Yameen, who is also brother-in-law of the former dictator, will be the candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Former defense minister Mohamed Nazim is also running.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. MDP is broadly pro-India while PPM is broadly pro-China.
Mimrah Ghafoor, The Diplomat (May 20, 2023): Damaging and Disingenuous: Evaluating the ‘India Out’ Campaign in Maldives
Surinder Singh Oberoi, Newsdrum (May 18, 2023): Tensions rise in Maldives as Speaker Nasheed forms new political party ahead of Presidential election
Radhey Tambi, The Diplomat (May 5, 2023): India Can’t Afford to Lose Maldives Again
Robbie Newton, Human Rights Watch (May 3, 2023): Maldives Press Freedom in Danger
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner.
Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”
Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country.
Ruma Paul, Reuters (May 25, 2023): Bangladesh promises free, fair elections in response to US visa curbs
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024
Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Recently, various high-level KMT officials, including former president Ma Ying-Jeoh, have traveled to the mainland. Ma’s visit marks the first time a president of Taiwan has visited the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.
Bloomberg (May 25, 2023): Taiwan Downgrades Growth Outlook Again as Election Looms
Rishi Jyengar, Foreign Policy (May 15, 2023): Taiwan’s Trump Wants to Make Nice With Beijing: Foxconn founder Terry Gou will be hoping his pro-China message finds more takers than it did in 2020.
Cindy Wang and Samson Ellis, Bloomberg (May 19, 2023): Why Taiwan’s 2024 Elections Matter From Beijing to Washington
AFP (May 7, 2023): Foxconn Founder Vows to ‘Preserve Peace’ With China if Elected Taiwan President
Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024
Indonesia is due to hold general elections in February 2024, but the Central Jakarta District Court issued a surprise ruling that would delay the elections to 2025 at the earliest. The ruling was made in response to a complaint from PRIMA, a new political party, which contested the election commission’s decision not to allow it to compete in the 2024 elections.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.
Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy (May 22, 2023): In Jakarta, Political Kingmaking Starts Now
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due), and General Elections: 2024 (Following state elections in Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya in February 2023 and in Karnataka on May 10, 2023)
India’s states have their own elected governments that have significant devolved power. Roughly one-third of them hold elections in 2023. First up: the northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, followed by votes in Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana (and possibly Jammu & Kashmir) later this year.
These state elections will set the tone for next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls, which determine who runs the government. Narendra Modi’s BJP is campaigning for a history-making third term.
Karnataka, whose capital is the tech hub of Bangalore, currently has a BP government. “Winning Karnataka — the state is home to Bengaluru, India’s IT hub — would energize Rahul Gandhi’s opposition Congress party.”
Rhea Mogul, CNN (May 24, 2023): ‘Modi is the boss’: Australian leader gives India’s prime minister a rock star welcome
Al Jazeera (May 23, 2023): Overseas Indians cheer for Modi at rally in Australia’s Sydney
Rhea Mogul, CNN (May 18, 2023): India’s ruling BJP has lost its only southern stronghold. What does it mean for Modi?
Astha Rajvanshi, Time (May 16, 2023): A Crucial State Election Loss Underscores Modi’s Waning Grasp in South India
AP (May 13, 2023): Hindu nationalist party loses crucial state election ahead of India’s national vote
Hannah Ellis-Petersen, The Guardian (May 13, 2023): India’s Congress party defeats Narendra Modi’s BJP in Karnataka state elections
Australia, Constitutional Referendum on Indigenous Voice to Parliament: Due in 2023
Angelica Silva, ABC News Australia (May 14, 2023): What is the Indigenous Voice to Parliament? Here’s how it would work and who’s for and against it
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023
Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) held presidential elections in 2022 that returned José Ramos-Horta to office after he defeated incumbent Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo. Ramos-Horta was a leader in the country’s independence movement and served as president from 2008-2012, and before that as prime minister and foreign minister.
Following the 2022 election, Ramos-Horta turned heads around the world when he announced that he would expand bilateral ties with China.
Timor-Leste is a semi-presidential system, with the prime minister holding significant powers. Currently, the prime minister is José Maria Vasconcelos, widely known by his nom de guerre “Taur Matan Ruak,” from Fretilin, the former resistance movement that is now one of Timor-Leste’s two major parties, the other being CNRT, which is Ramos-Horta’s party.
Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although many challenges remain.
Reuters (May 20, 2023): East Timor heads to the polls in parliamentary election
Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. Prayuth is running for another term, but so is his mentor, fellow royalist military officer Prawit Wongsuwan. They will face the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is running.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Scott Christiansen, Brookings Institution (May 25, 2023): Thailand’s election of the century
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (May 15, 2023): Thailand’s Elections: Potential Coalition Government Scenarios
Al Jazeera (May 14, 2023): Thailand election results: Opposition trounces military parties
Jonathan Head, BBC (May 11, 2023): Thailand election: The party they can’t stop winning
Japan Unified Local Elections and Parliamentary By-Elections: April 9, 2023 and April 23, 2023 (next national elections due in 2025)
Elaine Lies and Yoshifumi Takemoto, Reuters (May 22, 2023): Riding on G7 success, Japan PM Kishida eyes early election
Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg (April 30, 2023): Japan PM’s Support Tops 50% Amid Speculation on Early Vote
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: November 2023 (due)
Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum: Between October and December 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Eurasia
April 27, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023
Uzbekistan is holding a referendum on April 30 to change the constitution to allow President Shavkat Mirziyoev to remain in office until 2040.
Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest (although forced labor is reportedly still going on) and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. As a result, the “no” campaign in the referendum is basically nonexistent.
Reuters (April 27, 2023): Uzbek referendum to allow president to extend rule
Eurasianet (April 27, 2023): Uzbekistan: Slick campaign drums up support for new-look constitution
Batir Tursunov, Japan Times (April 26, 2023): The referendum in Uzbekistan: What will change in regional policy
Moldova Regional Election in Gagauzia: April 30, 2023, followed by Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025. But next up, the region of Gagauzia elects a governor on April 30.
Moldova’s last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.
On February 10, the pro-West government collapsed, following a warning from Ukraine’s president that Russia had a plan to destroy Moldova. However, Sandu quickly appointed a new government. The country remains on high alert for violence or other destabilization efforts by pro-Russian forces.
Keith Harrington, Carnegie Endowment (April 27, 2023): Gagauzia’s Election Could Help Russia Destabilize Moldova
Alexander Tanas, Reuters (April 27, 2023): Moldova leader accuses Russia of meddling ahead of regional vote
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (April 26, 2023): Russia Bans Moldovan MPs and Minister, and Expels Diplomat
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024
Russia is not a democracy and elections are neither free nor fair. That said, public opinion is not entirely irrelevant to the political calculus, and Vladimir Putin technically faces voters in 2024. As a result, his regime has become increasingly oppressive at home and aggressive abroad.
IFEX notes: “In 2022, Russia saw more than 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for anti-war speech; more than 200,000 internet resources blocked; and 11 sentences in cases of state treason.”
As the Moscow Times notes: “Novosibirsk, the most populous city in Siberia, had been one of just three Russian cities with over 1 million residents that retained direct mayoral elections amid a vigorous centralization of power by the Kremlin.”
Moscow Times (April 26, 2023): Russia’s Novosibirsk Abolishes Direct Mayoral Elections
Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due – snap elections possible)
The United National Movement (UNM), Georgia’s pro-West opposition, held a leadership election in January following a bitter campaign that has left it divided heading into parliamentary elections due in 2024 (Georgia transitioned to a parliamentary system starting in 2012, so these elections will determine who runs the government).
The current government is led by Georgian Dream, a coalition founded by eccentric and Kremlin-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. It came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM. The opposition has been calling for new elections since October 2020’s parliamentary polls, due to claims of fraud. International observers noted significant flaws in the elections, and observed that there were issues with public confidence in the polls.
The most recent vote Georgia, the October 2021 local elections, took place in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote.
Despite Ivanishvili’s Kremlin ties, Georgian Dream has continued some of Georgia’s steps toward Euro-Atlantic integration, including applying for EU membership. This is because public opinion in Georgia overwhelmingly supports those things. However, it is unclear whether Georgian Dream has a genuine commitment to a Euro-Atlantic course, given its leaders’ ties to Russia. And some say that Saakashvili’s ongoing rough treatment and imprisonment are occurring on Russia’s orders.
Arshan Barzani, Politico (April 26, 2023): Who is running Georgia? Perhaps the biggest question is why the government would pursue such an unpopular pro-Russia policy.
Civil.ge (April 25, 2023): IRI Poll Shows Strong Support of Georgian Citizens for EU Membership
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023
Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023
Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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