Eurasia

April 27, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

A Lenin statue in Comrat, capital of Moldova’s Gagauzia region. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Mafo (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Uzbekistan is holding a referendum on April 30 to change the constitution to allow President Shavkat Mirziyoev to remain in office until 2040. 

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest (although forced labor is reportedly still going on) and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. As a result, the “no” campaign in the referendum is basically nonexistent.

Reuters (April 27, 2023): Uzbek referendum to allow president to extend rule

Eurasianet (April 27, 2023): Uzbekistan: Slick campaign drums up support for new-look constitution

Batir Tursunov, Japan Times (April 26, 2023): The referendum in Uzbekistan: What will change in regional policy

Moldova Regional Election in Gagauzia: April 30, 2023, followed by Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025. But next up, the region of Gagauzia elects a governor on April 30.

Moldova’s last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior  to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.

Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.

On February 10, the pro-West government collapsed, following a warning from Ukraine’s president that Russia had a plan to destroy Moldova. However, Sandu quickly appointed a new government. The country remains on high alert for violence or other destabilization efforts by pro-Russian forces.

Keith Harrington, Carnegie Endowment (April 27, 2023): Gagauzia’s Election Could Help Russia Destabilize Moldova

Alexander Tanas, Reuters (April 27, 2023): Moldova leader accuses Russia of meddling ahead of regional vote

Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (April 26, 2023): Russia Bans Moldovan MPs and Minister, and Expels Diplomat

Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024

Russia is not a democracy and elections are neither free nor fair. That said, public opinion is not entirely irrelevant to the political calculus, and Vladimir Putin technically faces voters in 2024. As a result, his regime has become increasingly oppressive at home and aggressive abroad.

IFEX notes: “In 2022, Russia saw more than 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for anti-war speech; more than 200,000 internet resources blocked; and 11 sentences in cases of state treason.”

As the Moscow Times notes: “Novosibirsk, the most populous city in Siberia, had been one of just three Russian cities with over 1 million residents that retained direct mayoral elections amid a vigorous centralization of power by the Kremlin.”

Moscow Times (April 26, 2023): Russia’s Novosibirsk Abolishes Direct Mayoral Elections

Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due – snap elections possible)

The United National Movement (UNM), Georgia’s pro-West opposition, held a leadership election in January following a bitter campaign that has left it divided heading into parliamentary elections due in 2024 (Georgia transitioned to a parliamentary system starting in 2012, so these elections will determine who runs the government). 

The current government is led by Georgian Dream, a coalition founded by eccentric and Kremlin-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. It came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM. The opposition has been calling for new elections since October 2020’s parliamentary polls, due to claims of fraud. International observers noted significant flaws in the elections, and observed that there were issues with public confidence in the polls.

The most recent vote Georgia, the October 2021 local elections, took place in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote. 

Despite Ivanishvili’s Kremlin ties, Georgian Dream has continued some of Georgia’s steps toward Euro-Atlantic integration, including applying for EU membership. This is because public opinion in Georgia overwhelmingly supports those things. However, it is unclear whether Georgian Dream has a genuine commitment to a Euro-Atlantic course, given its leaders’ ties to Russia. And some say that Saakashvili’s ongoing rough treatment and imprisonment are occurring on Russia’s orders.

Arshan Barzani, Politico (April 26, 2023): Who is running Georgia? Perhaps the biggest question is why the government would pursue such an unpopular pro-Russia policy.

Civil.ge (April 25, 2023): IRI Poll Shows Strong Support of Georgian Citizens for EU Membership

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023

Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Europe

April 26, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

A street in Salzburg, Austria. Communists will enter Salzburg’s state legislature for the first time since 1949 following state elections on April 23. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Jorge Franganillo (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Europe Elections

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023, followed by general elections due in 2024

The United Kingdom holds local elections in some parts of England in May, a test for new PM Rishi Sunak (the fourth prime minister to hold office since the 2019 general elections).

Prof Sir John Curtice, BBC (April 26, 2023): Local elections 2023: What do opinion polls suggest?

The Economist (April 25, 2023): The Economist’s UK election poll tracker

Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023

Gjergi Erebara, Balkan Insight (April 26, 2023): Albania PM Denies Using Govt Funds to Blackmail Voters

Greece Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Greece has set parliamentary elections for May 21, 2023, a week after Turkey goes to the polls. The incumbent center-right government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right New Democracy is facing a number of challenges, including a scandal involving domestic surveillance of political opponents and a train crash that killed dozens of people.

Alexander Clarkson, World Politics Review (April 26, 2023): Europe Has a Lot Riding on Turkey’s—and Greece’s—Elections

Leonie Kijewski, Politico (April 22, 2023): Greece’s legislative election confirmed for May 21

Montenegro Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023 (following presidential elections in March and April 2023)

In Montenegro’s recent presidential election, incumbent Milo Djukanovic, who has been president or PM for 33 years, lost to former economy minister Jakov Milatovic. Hamza Karcic, a professor at the University of Sarajevo, notes: “On the surface, these election results may seem like nothing out of the ordinary: A veteran politician long accused of corruption was replaced by a youthful candidate with international credentials promising change. But Djukanovic’s defeat is a major victory for those who believe in a Serbian world and support its aims, because it removes barriers to Belgrade’s influence in Montenegro.”

Next up, the country holds snap parliamentary elections in June.

The last elections, the fifth since independence from Serbia in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government, but that proved short-lived. Several other governments have risen and fallen, and the political situation remains unstable.

Foreign Policy (April 24, 2023): Serbia Is Taking a Page Out of Russia’s Book: Putin’s pursuit of a “Russian world” is rekindling Serbian expansionism in the Balkans.

– Kenneth Morrisonand  Srdja Pavlović, New Eastern Europe (April 24, 2023): The fall of Milo Djukanović heralds an uncertain new dawn for Montenegro

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: November 11, 2023 (due – earlier elections possible)

Vanessa Gera, AP (April 26, 2023): Poland: prosecutors open probe into opposition leader Tusk

Raphael Minder, Financial Times (April 23, 2023): ‘Who will pay the bill?’: Poland’s defence spending spree raises questions over funding

Al Jazeera (April 21, 2023): Why is Ukrainian grain suddenly so divisive in Europe?

Sławomir Sierakowski, Project Syndicate (April 20, 2023): Graindämmerung for Poland’s Populists?

Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)

Cain Burdeau, Courthouse News Service (April 21, 2023): Spain is entering a bitter election cycle. Will its Socialist leader survive?

Past Europe Elections

Austria, State Elections in Salzburg: April 23, 2023

Austria is holding a series of state elections ahead of federal elections due next year (in Austria’s federal system, state legislatures exercise a great deal of power). 

Recent state elections have seen political shakeups. The center-right ÖVP lost its absolute majority in the January 29 state election in Lower Austria – an ÖVP stronghold – as right-wing populist FPÖ made gains. This is a bad omen for ÖVP (which currently heads the federal government in coalition with the Greens) ahead of general elections next year. Lower Austria is an ÖVP stronghold, and the home region of many of the party’s leaders. 

Meanwhile, on March 5, Carinthia held state elections. While the Social Democrats (SPÖ) won, they lost ground.

Most recently, following the April 23 elections in Salzburg, the Communists will enter the state legislature for the first time since 1949.

Emily Schultheis, Foreign Policy (April 25, 2023): Austria’s Far Right Is Back on Top: Four years after a major scandal ousted it from government, the party is leading national polls again.

People’s Dispatch (April 25, 2023): Austrian communists enter Salzburg State Assembly for the first time since 1949

Wolfgang Vichtl, Tagesschau (April 24, 2023 – in German): KPÖ and FPÖ celebrate in Salzburg

Fabian Lehr, Jacobin (April 21, 2023): Will a Socialist Lead Austria’s Social Democrats Again?

Kosovo Partial Local Elections: April 23, 2023

Dustan Stojanovic, AP (April 24, 2023): Serbian leader lashes out at the West over Kosovo vote

RFE/RL (April 23, 2023): Amid Boycott, Turnout Meager In Local Elections In Serbian Strongholds Of Northern Kosovo

Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023

Finland held general elections in the context of its bid to join NATO after ending a long-standing policy of neutrality. Incumbent Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats placed third, behind the conservative National Coalition Party and the nationalist Finns Party, which placed first and second respectively. National Coalition Party leader Petteri Orpo will have the first shot at forming a government.

YLE (April 24, 2023): Sanna Marin: SDP not expecting invite to government formation talks

Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)

Bulgaria held its fifth election in two years, but the results could continue the ongoing political stalemate.

Radosveta Vassileva, New Eastern Europe (April 21, 2023): Bulgaria’s election spiral: the anatomy of disappointment

Europe Elections Coming Up in 2023

Several European countries hold elections that determine who runs the government: Cyprus (fun fact: Cyprus is the EU’s only full presidential system), Monaco, Estonia, Andorra, Finland, Greece, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, and Spain.

In addition, Montenegro and Slovakia appear on track to hold snap elections. And Bulgaria could hold its fourth general election in three years.

Moreover, a number of other countries in Europe could hold snap elections at short notice – it happens.

Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 23, 2023

Kosovo Partial Local Elections: April 23, 2023

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023

Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023

Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Northern Ireland: May 18, 2023

Greece Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023

Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 31, 2023

Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Montenegro Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023

Luxembourg Local Elections: June 11, 2023

Spain, Regional Elections in Various Regions: June 25, 2023

Norway Local Elections: September 11, 2023

Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)

Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 8, 2023

Luxembourg General Elections: October 8, 2023

Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023

Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Finland, Åland Elections: October 2023 (due)

Portugal, Regional Elections in Madeira: October 2023 (due)

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections (due – earlier elections possible): November 11, 2023

Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)

Switzerland Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): December 12, 2023

Andorra Local Elections: December 2023 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Middle East

April 25, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Great Mosque of Kairouan, Tunisia. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Alexandre Moureau (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Ongoing Middle East Elections

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing and Local Elections: Postponed to May 2024

Lebanon’s fractious parliament is in the process of selecting a president. As part of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the president is always a Maronite Christian (and conversely, a Sunni serves as prime minister and a Shi’ite as speaker of the parliament). 

The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2022 in the context of a political and economic crisis exacerbated by the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut. In those elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats. 

The fragmented parliament has not been able to pick a new president, leaving a vacuum following the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022. Aoun was a strong ally of Hezbollah. Michel Moawad, an anti-Hezbollah candidate, has won the most votes on several ballots, but not a majority. Voting will continue until someone can break the stalemate. 

As a result of not having a president, Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government is operating in a caretaker capacity, and it is exacerbating Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, with the currency hitting new record lows.

Najia Houssari, Arab News (April 18, 2023): Hezbollah’s candidate for Lebanon’s presidency hails talks with Maronite patriarch after surprise visit to Bkerke

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Turkey General Elections: May 14, 2023

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.

Turkey’s opposition made the decision to field a single candidate against Erdoğan in this year’s election. The government barred Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu from running, so the opposition candidate will be Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). While AKP has its roots in political Islam, CHP is staunchly secularist, having been founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. 

In addition, two other candidates are running: Muharrem Ince, who was CHP’s candidate in the last elections, and Sinan Oğan, a former MP from the nationalist MHP. Ince has been described as a spoiler. Following his defeat in the CHP leadership contest, he formed a new party called Memleket (which means Homeland). He is known or his combative style, in contrast to the more mild-mannered Kilicdaroglu.

While Turkey remains a member of NATO, it has in recent years moved closer to Russia and other authoritarian countries.

The campaign is taking place in the context of the aftermath of an earthquake that ravaged the Turkey-Syria borer on February 6, striking Gaziantep province and killing more than 30,000 people and injuring tens of thousands. 

Elçin Poyrazlar, Politico (April 26, 2023): Turkey’s jailed electoral kingmaker predicts Erdoğan’s demise

AFP (April 25, 2023): Turkey arrests 110 people over alleged PKK links ahead of crunch elections

Reuben Silverman, Foreign Policy (April 22, 2023): What Happens When a Turkish President Loses an Election? No One Knows.

Reuters (April 20, 2023): Erdogan offers free gas pre-election after first Black Sea field shipment

Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab: May 14, 2023, followed by General Elections: October 12, 2023 (early elections possible)

Following Pakistan’s turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats. However, Khan was ousted in an April 2022 vote of no confidence and former opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister. Since then, Khan has sought to force earlier elections as his popularity continues to rise in opinion polls.

This is all taking place in the context of an economic crisis, with soaring prices and rolling blackouts. As a result, the government risks losing the next elections. But delaying the election also creates challenges, given how angry voters are. 

Arif Rafiq observes: “There is little appetite to live in a country where upward mobility and political rights are denied by the civilian-military elite. Many Pakistanis are now voting with their feet. Over 800,000 Pakistanis left the country to work abroad last year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. According to a Gallup Pakistan survey, over fifty percent of Pakistanis with a university degree would like to leave the country.”

Umair Jamal, The Diplomat (April 25, 2023): The Problem With Pakistan’s Supreme Court: The recent ruling fixing a date for the Punjab provincial assembly elections is deeply controversial as it lays bare the apex court’s partisan bias.

Shah Meer Baloch, The Guardian (April 20, 2023): Pakistan’s Punjab elections to go ahead as court confirms ruling

Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 or July 2023 (due)

Pierre Boussel, GIS Reports (April 19, 2023): Tunisia’s democratic decline: In the birthplace of the Arab Spring, civil liberties are eroding for a public increasingly frustrated by social and economic problems.

Al-Monitor (April 18, 2023): Timeline: Kais Saied’s crackdown in Tunisia, from suspending parliament to arresting Ghannouchi

Iraq Regional Elections: November 6, 2023

Iraq has set regional council elections for November 6, the first in a decade, in all of the provinces except for Kurdistan, which is autonomous. The councils have significant budgetary powers under Iraq’s 2005 constitution, which created a federal system.

Iraq held early elections on in October 2021  as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability, with various politicians boycotting.

Barham Salih, Foreign Policy (April 24, 2023): 20 Years After Liberation, Iraq Needs Root-and-Branch Reform

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023

Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold elections that determine who runs the government. In addition, long-overdue elections in the Palestinian Authority and Libya could take place in 2023, but don’t hold your breath.

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): continues in April 2023

Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 14, 2023

Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: May 14, 2023

Tunisia Local Elections: May or July 2023 (due)

Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible)

Israel Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)

United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 2023 (due)

Iraq Regional Elections: November 6, 2023

Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: November 18, 2023

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Africa

April 24, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Government building in Bissau, capital of Guinea-Bissau. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Joehawkins (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Guinea-Bissau Snap Legislative Elections: June 4, 2023

Guinea-Bissau’s president dissolved parliament in May 2022 and and called for snap elections, which will take place on June 4. In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats, voting in Aristide Gomes as prime minister. Subsequently, Umaro Sissoco Embaló won the November 2019 presidential election, defeating incumbent José Mário Vaz and 10 other candidates.

Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Although analysts believed that the March 2019 legislative elections improved the situation, the country regressed once again at the end of October 2019, when Vaz fired Gomes, and Gomes refused to leave office – the third government dissolution in two years.

There is an ever-present risk of a coup (and in fact, one was attempted in January 2022).

Iancuba Dansó, DW (April 19, 2023 – in Portuguese): Elections: Guinea-Bissau races against time

Cote d’Ivoire Local Elections: September 2, 2023, followed by General Elections: 2025

Côte d’Ivoire’s president has proposed holding local elections early, in 2023. The country just completed a major election cycle that began in turbulent fashion when incumbent president Alasanne Ouattara sought and won a controversial third term. The opposition boycotted the presidential election. Protests followed, as well as arrests of opposition members.

However, during the 2021 parliamentary elections, the situation calmed down a bit. Following discussions and the release of some opposition figures, the opposition participated in the legislative elections. 

Former president Laurent Gbagbo casts a long shadow over Cote d’Ivoire politics. He had been tried by the International Criminal Court following violence surrounding his refusal to accept his loss of the 2010 election. Gbagbo was ultimately acquitted, but an appeal against the acquittal kept him in Belgium until this year. He has now returned home.

Côte d’Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa. It is the world’s biggest producer of cocoa and cashew nuts, and a net exporter of oil. However, since 1999, political struggles and two civil wars have created instability, and the political climate remains tense.

Africanews with AFP (April 20, 2023): Ivory Coast: municipal and regional elections on September 2

South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)

South Africa’s ANC has won every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, but it had its worst result ever in 2019, winning less than 60 percent of the vote. While South Africa is a vibrant democracy, Freedom House notes: “…in recent years, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has been accused of undermining state institutions to protect corrupt officials and preserve its power as its support base has begun to wane.” 

Corruption remains an issue. Moreover, power cuts have been bad lately, with people experiencing up to 12 hours a day without electricity, prompting President Cyril Ramaphosa to declare a national disaster.

Geopolitically, South Africa has strong ties to Russia and China as a member of the BRICS. The three countries are hosting a joint naval exercise, much to the consternation of Europe and the United States.

Dirk Kotze, The Conversation (April 24, 2023): South Africa votes in 2024: could a coalition between major parties ANC and EFF run the country?

Antony Sguazzin, Bloomberg (April 19, 2023): Ramaphosa’s Popularity Plunges Amid South African Power Cuts, Survey Shows

Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times (April 19, 2023): New South African party hopes to capitalise on discontent with ANC

S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (April 17, 2023): South Africa Backs Law Allowing Individuals to Run for President

Somaliland Presidential Election: November 2024 (delayed from 2022)

Abdulkadir Khalif, The East African (April 19, 2023): Delayed Somaliland elections blamed for violence in Las Anod

Sudan General Elections: 2025 (proposed)

Reuters (April 21, 2023): Explainer-Sudan’s conflict and what worries neighbours, the U.S. and others

IFES (April 18, 2023): IFES Q&A: Conflict in Sudan

Christopher Tounsel, The Conversation (April 17, 2023): Sudan crisis explained: What’s behind the latest fighting and how it fits nation’s troubled past

Past Africa Elections

Nigeria Local and Gubernatorial Elections: March 18, 2023 (postponed from March 11, and following general elections on February 25)

Nigeria held general elections on February 25. Bola Tinuba from the governing “sort of left” All Progressives Congress Party (APC) won the presidency, defeating Atiku Abubakar from the main opposition “sort of right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi from the Labour Party, as well as a number of other candidates (incumbent Muhammadu Buhari was term-limited and unable to run for re-election). However, both Obi and Atiku are challenging the results.

In past years, PDP and APC got the vast majority of the vote share in presidential elections, but Obi won 25 percent, and won a majority in Lagos, Nigeria’s state.

In the gubernatorial elections, which took place a week late (election delays at short notice are not infrequent in Nigeria), PDP and APC remained dominant. Although Obi’s supporters had hoped to win in Lagos, the incumbent APC governor won re-election.

Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, Foreign Policy (April 18, 2023): Is the Party Over in Nigeria? Personality rules in a country where political parties were once kingmakers.

Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022

Reuters (April 24, 2023): Kenya opposition says it will resume protests on May 2

Americas

April 22, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Argentina’s Neuquen River. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Andarin2 (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Paraguay’s election could result in yet another country switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC. Incumbent president Mario Abdo from the conservative Colorado Party is ineligible to run for another term. Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre from the liberal PRLA has said that if he wins, he’ll recognize Beijing, while Colorado’s candidate, Santiago Pena, has said he will maintain relations with Taiwan.

Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.

Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. These elections took place in the context of political violence and attacks on candidates. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.

Jacob Kessler, Al Jazeera (April 17, 2023): Taiwan in the hot seat during Paraguay presidential elections: Paraguay’s presidential election features opposing views about whether to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023, followed by General Elections: July 2024

Some Mexican states are holding gubernatorial elections this year, but the country’s politicos are all gearing up for the big presidential election in 2024. 

Populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (often called AMLO) stormed to election in 2018, but he is barred from seeking another term. There had been some talk of him potentially trying to run again anyway, but he now says he will not. But concerns about growing authoritarianism remain, particularly with a package of electoral reforms he is trying to enact.

Christopher Sherman and E. Eduardo Castillo, AP (April 16, 2023): He’s been Mexico’s voice abroad. Now he wants the presidency

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Guatemala’s last elections, in 2019, took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

There are more than 20 candidates in the 2023 elections.

Guatemala still recognizes Taiwan, but some opposition candidates have said they would switch recognition to Beijing.

Reuters (April 21, 2023): Guatemala’s Giammattei to visit Taiwan April 24-26

Americas Quarterly (April 19, 2023 – podcast): AQ Podcast: Guatemala’s Suspiciously Status Quo Election

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Lucila Sigal, Reuters (April 21, 2023): Argentine President Fernandez pulls out of 2023 election

Mark P. Jones, Forbes (April 17, 2023): A Political Earthquake In Argentina’s Vaca Muerta: The 2023 Neuquén Gubernatorial Election

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023 (presidential election due in 2024)

Venezuela’s political, constitutional, and humanitarian crises have been going on for years. The country became an authoritarian state under the now-deceased Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and completely transformed the country from a prosperous democracy to a leftist dictatorship. His successor, Nicolás Maduro, has continued on that path. Socialist economic policies have destroyed the economy. Although Venezuela is a major oil producer, 90 percent of Venezuelans cannot afford sufficient food and many have fled. Moreover, the capital, Caracas, has become one of the most violent cities in the world.

Nonetheless, Venezuela’s opposition is active and occasionally makes gains.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, U.S. officials have begun to court the Venezuelan regime.

Tony Frangie-Mawad, Foreign Policy (April 20, 2023): Why Maduro Is Courting Evangelicals Ahead of the 2024 Election

Argus Media (April 20, 2023): Venezuela’s government, opposition to restart talks

Past Americas Elections

Cuba Indirect Presidential Election (by legislature – neither free nor fair): April 29, 2023

Al Jazeera (April 20, 2023): Cuban lawmakers vote in new five-year term for current president

Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023

Ecuador held local and regional elections on February 5, as well as a referendum on constitutional amendments backed by President Guillermo Lasso. Lasso, who is center-right, was elected in a close runoff in 2021 in one of the handful of Latin American elections that resisted the “pink tide.” He is up for re-election in 2025.

The elections dealt a blow to Lasso, with the leftist opposition winning most major cities, including the port of Guayaquil, the country’s biggest city, which the right had controlled since the 90s. Now, some are calling for Lasso’s impeachment and/or early elections.

Stephen Kueffner, Bloomberg (April 20, 2023): What’s at Stake as Ecuador’s President Faces Impeachment

Michael Stott, Financial Times (April 18, 2023): Ecuador’s president vows to dissolve congress if it tries to impeach him

Regional Analysis

Carin Zissis, Americas Quarterly (April 19, 2023 – podcast): The China-Taiwan Tussle in the Americas

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023

British Virgin Islands Assembly Elections: April 24, 2023

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Jujuy, Misiones and La Rioja: May 7, 2023

Chile Constitutional Council Elections: May 7, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in La Pampa, San Juan, Salta, Tucumán and Tierra del Fuego: May 14, 2023

Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Legislative Elections in Corrientes: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in San Luis: June 11, 2023

Guyana Local Elections: June 12, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Córdoba: June 18, 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Argentina Presidential Primary: August 13, 2023

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 27, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Mendoza and Entre Ríos: September 24, 2023

Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023

Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023

Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)

Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)

Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Asia

April 21, 2023

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Landscape in Bobonaro, Timor-Leste. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Hans-Peter Grumpe (GFDL 1.2)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

Japan Unified Local Elections and Parliamentary By-Elections: April 9, 2023 and April 23, 2023 (next national elections due in 2025)

Kana Inagaki, Finanial Times (April 19, 2023): Ukraine and baseball put Japan’s Fumio Kishida back in the game: Prime minister receives approval rating boost from foreign diplomacy push ahead of local by-elections

Thisanka Siripala, The Diplomat (April 18, 2023): Japan PM Escapes Election Bomb Attack: Less than a year after Abe’s murder, violence again erupted on the election campaign trail, raising concerns about how to protect public figures in Japan.

Reuters (April 18, 2023): Suspect in attack on Japan PM had sued government over election -Yomiuri

JIJI (April 16, 2023): Campaigning starts for second half of Japan’s unified polls

Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023

Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. Prayuth is running for another term, but so is his mentor, fellow royalist military officer Prawit Wongsuwan. They will face the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is running. 

Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. 

Punchada Sirivunnabood, The Diplomat (April 20, 2023): Thailand’s General Election: Can the Winner Really Take All?

Marwaan Macan-Markar, Nikkei Asia (April 17, 2023): Thailand’s largest opposition faces dissolution fears after election

Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) held presidential elections in 2022 that returned José Ramos-Horta to office after he defeated incumbent Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo. Ramos-Horta was a leader in the country’s independence movement and served as president from 2008-2012, and before that as prime minister and foreign minister.

Following the 2022 election, Ramos-Horta turned heads around the world when he announced that he would expand bilateral ties with China.

Timor-Leste is a semi-presidential system, with the prime minister holding significant powers. Currently, the prime minister is José Maria Vasconcelos, widely known by his nom de guerre “Taur Matan Ruak,” from Fretilin, the former resistance movement that is now one of Timor-Leste’s two major parties, the other being CNRT, which is Ramos-Horta’s party.   

Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although many challenges remain.

Parker Novak, Lowy Institute (April 18, 2023): Rallies, flags and motorbikes: it’s election time in Timor-Leste

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023

Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”

The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.

Radio Free Asia (April 21, 2023): Top opposition party youth leader switches allegiance to Hun Sen’s ruling party

Ben Lawrence, World Politics Review (April 19, 2023): Hun Sen Is Tightening His Grip Ahead of Cambodia’s Elections

Radio Free Asia (April 19, 2023): Cambodian court orders arrest of opposition party officials

Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)

Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, 2021 the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence).

Burma is of geopolitical importance because of its location on the Indian Ocean. China has sought to cultivate ties in order to get more access to the Indian Ocean, and simultaneously, western governments have at times pursued warmer relations with the regime.

Radio Free Asia (April 19, 2023): Myanmar’s junta-controlled Supreme Court to hear appeal by Aung San Suu Kyi

James Snell, The Spectator (April 17, 2023): Why the world shouldn’t ignore the brutal war in Burma

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner. 

Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”

Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country. 

Mubashar Hasan, The Diplomat (April 20, 2023): Bangladesh’s Free Press Is Under Fire

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024

Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.

The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Recently, various high-level KMT officials, including former president Ma Ying-Jeoh, have traveled to the mainland. Ma’s visit marks the first time a president of Taiwan has visited the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.

Thompson Chau, Nikkei Asia (April 21, 2023): Taiwan opposition frames election as choice of ‘war or peace’

Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024

Indonesia is due to hold general elections in February 2024, but the Central Jakarta District Court issued a surprise ruling that would delay the elections to 2025 at the earliest. The ruling was made in response to a complaint from PRIMA, a new political party, which contested the election commission’s decision not to allow it to compete in the 2024 elections. 

In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics. 

As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.

Reuters (April 21, 2023): Factbox: Who is running for president in Indonesia’s 2024 election?

Chris Barrett and Karuni Rompies, Sydney Morning Herald (April 21, 2023): After World Cup yellow card, Indonesian governor wins key backing for president

Faris Mokhtar and Chandra Asmara, Bloomberg (April 21, 2023): Ganjar Pranowo Is Indonesia Ruling Party’s Presidential Pick

Sri Lanka Local Elections: Postponed indefinitely

Sri Lanka had planned to hold local elections on March 9, 2023, its first elections since major protests over inflation, shortages, and a general economic crisis began in March 2022. However, the government called them off. A court subsequently ordered that they be held, and the election commission has announced the they will take place on April 25. 

The protests last year led to the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and members of his family. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former opposition leader, became president.

Sri Lanka is a hotspot for geopolitical competition between China and India. The Rajapaksa moved the country closer to China.

The Diplomat (April 21, 2023): Where Does Sri Lanka’s Protest Movement Go From Here?

PTI (April 19, 2023): Sri Lanka’s local body polls formally postponed indefinitely due to non-availability of funds

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Bhutan Upper House Elections: April 20, 2023

Bhutan is due to hold several sets of elections in 2023. Bhutan is a constitutional monarchy that has been implementing democratic reforms over the past decade.

Kuensel (April 19, 2023): Nation gears for fourth NC Poll Day

Laos Parliamentary Elections: February 21, 2021

Laos held parliamentary elections and provincial on February 21, 2021. Laos is a one-party communist state. Democracy activists and dissidents face arrest and forced disappearances. Moreover, there is no organized opposition in the country. Therefore, elections are neither free nor fair, and do not offer voters any real choices. 

Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (April 14, 2023): Unprecedented Protests Are Putting Laos in Uncharted Waters

Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023

Japan, Unified Local Elections, Second Stage: April 23, 2023

New Zealand, Niue General Elections: April 29, 2023

India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 10, 2023

Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023

Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023

Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)

Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023

Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)

Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)

New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023

Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023

Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)

Hong Kong District Council Elections: November 2023 (due)

Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum: Between October and December 2023 (due)

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)

Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023

Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.