September 1, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Viktuals Market in Munich. Germany holds elections on September 26 that will decide who succeeds Angela Merkel. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Paul Louis (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. She faces a serious challenge from the left-leaning opposition and the Greens. More
AFP/The Local (September 3, 2021): Why is Norway’s football manager calling for people to vote against the government?
Nerijus Adomaitis, Reuters (August 31, 2021): Climate change in election spotlight in oil giant Norway
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Iceland holds elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government is a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party. More
Jelena Ćirić, Iceland Review (September 1, 2021): First Election Debate Covered Economy, Climate, and Healthcare
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens begun to rival SPD as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world.
However, in recent weeks, SPD has bounced back in the polls, making the election anyone’s game and increasing the likelihood that Germany ends up with three-party governing coalition for the first time in decades. More
The Economist (September 2, 2021): Germany’s election, seen through the bottom of a glass: Conservative Bavarians and left-wing Berliners agree on beer but little else
Matthew Karnitschnig and Hans von der Burchard, Politico (September 1, 2021): Social Democrat Scholz channels Merkel to lead German election race
Euractiv (September 1, 2021): Scholz challenged over potential coalition with leftists
The Economist (August 31 , 2021 – podcast): “It’s extraordinary just how volatile this election campaign has turned out to be”—tumult in Germany
Stratfor (August 31, 2021 – podcast): Essential Geopolitics: Germany’s Election Begins a Future Without Merkel
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021 and Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Austria’s Upper Austria (whose capital is Linz, home of the Linzertorte cake) state holds elections in September. All four parties who have seats in the state legislature – ÖVP, FPÖ, the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the Greens – are part of the state government.
Austria is subsequently due to hold a presidential election by April 2022, but the role is largely ceremonial, with the chancellor instead holding most executive power.
Austria’s federal government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May 2019 following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. Subsequent snap elections gave ÖVP the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Ultimately, ÖVP formed a coalition with the Greens, and Kurz once again became chancellor.
AFP (August 27, 2021): Austria’s former far-right vice chancellor convicted of corruption
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More
Robert Muller, AP (September 2, 2021): Seeking re-election, Czech PM pledges to keep migrants, Brussels at bay
Peter Laca, Bloomberg (August 31, 2021): Czech Prosecutors Delay Decision Whether to Charge Tycoon Leader
James Shotter, Financial Times (August 29, 2021): Czech anti-establishment Pirate party eyes first shot at government: Ivan Bartos hopes to woo voters tired of country’s billionaire prime minister Andrej Babis
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021 (following an indirect presidential election that began on August 30)
Estonia – a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy – holds local elections on October 16, following an indirect presidential election on August 30.
In Estonia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial and representative role, with no executive power. The Riigikogu (parliament) elects the president. Incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid sought re-election. However, the government nominated Alar Karis, director of the Estonian National Museum, and Karis ended up winning.
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. More
Aaron Eglitis, Bloomberg Quint (August 31, 2021): Estonia Replaces President Who Helped Sink Last Government
Louis Westendarp, Politico (August 31, 2021): Estonia elects museum boss as new president
Jari Baker, AP (August 30, 2021): Estonia’s Parliament Fails to Elect President in First Round
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
North Macedonia is due to hold local elections in October 2021. These follow parliamentary elections in July 2020. Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up). The country’s politics are fragmented and fractious. The 2020 elections were extremely close, but ultimately PM Zoran Zaev and his Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) were able to once again form a government with the backing of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the main ethnic Albanian party (ethnic Albanians make up about a quarter of the population).
SDSM also controls most of the municipalities heading into the upcoming local elections, having beaten the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE in a majority of municipalities and ousting the VMRO-DMPNE mayor of Skopje.
Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (September 1, 2021): Vandalised Bulgarian flag provokes new tensions between Sofia, Skopje
AP (August 31, 2021): North Macedonia, Greece, see trade boost after key name deal
Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Bloomberg (August 30, 2021): Balkan State’s EU Entry Talks Hang on Bulgarian Political Crisis
Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021 and Snap Parliamentary Elections (Likely – TBD)
Bulgaria is holding a presidential election on September 14, and will probably hold a third set of parliamentary elections since it looks like no government can be formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4).
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused. Therefore, there is a strong chance of a third election, possibly around the time of the presidential election. More
Reuters (September 2, 2021): Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government
AP (September 2, 2021): Bulgaria to hold presidential elections on Nov. 14
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June
2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Roger Cohen, New York Times (September 2, 2021): The French Left Is in Disarray, but Here Comes Anne Hidalgo: The charismatic and divisive socialist mayor of Paris is eyeing an office that has been occupied by eight male presidents over six decades.
France24 (September 2, 2021 – video): The future of Marseille: a key theme in next year’s French presidential election?
Tom Wheeldon, France24 (September 1, 2021): Macron plans to tackle Marseille’s drug crime, with eye on re-election
Robert Zaretsky, Forward (August 31, 2021): The French Tucker Carlson is Jewish, xenophobic — and maybe a presidential candidate
John Lichfield, The Local (August 31, 2021): ANALYSIS: Which of the 30 candidates has any chance of winning France’s 2022 presidential election?
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: By April 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Sasa Dragojlo, Balkan Insight (August 31, 2021): Green Shoots in Serbia a Worry for Ruling Party and Opponents
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
Balázs Gulyás, The Bulwark (September 1, 2021): An Open Letter to Tucker Carlson from a Hungarian Conservative
Euractiv/AFP (August 31, 2021): Budapest mayor obtains vote on China university in blow for Orban
RFE/RL (August 30, 2021): Hungary’s Election Authority Approves Bid To Hold Referendum On Chinese University
Past Europe Elections
Romania Parliamentary Elections: December 6, 2020
Romania held parliamentary elections on December 6. Amid low turnout due partly to COVID-19, the scandal-plagued leftist Social Democrats (PSD) unexpectedly came in first place. However, a coalition of parties formed a center-right government, headed by Florin Cîțu from the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL). More
Reuters (September 2, 2021): Romania coalition at risk after junior party pulls support for PM
Andrei Chirileasa, Romania Insider (September 1, 2021): Romania’s ruling coalition on the brink of break due to dispute on EUR 10 bln development program
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: September 4, 2021
Last Updated: September 19, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 4, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Bahamas Snap General Elections: September 16, 2021
Bahamas will hold snap elections on September 16, eight months early. The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power.
Oswald T. Brown, Washington Informer (September 1, 2021): Candidates Officially Nominated for Bahamas General Election on Sept. 16
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Canada will hold snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who currently heads a minority government, is hoping to win a majority for his Liberals. However, many Canadians do not want elections at this time, making the decision a major gamble.
The Economist (September 4, 2021): Could Canada’s Conservative Party win back power?
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible)
Haiti plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises. The political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Jim Wyss, Bloomberg (September 2, 2021): Gangs Now Run Haiti, Filling a Vacuum Left by Years of Collapse
Jonathan Alpeyrie, Daily Beast (August 30, 2021): His Name Is Barbecue—and He’s Ready to Plunge Haiti Into War
Dave Sherwood, Reuters (August 30, 2021): Haiti former first lady calls for help in unraveling husband’s murder
Editorial Board, Washington Post (August 29, 2021): Opinion: Haiti is desperate. Americans can and should help.
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (September 3, 2021): U.S., others can — and should — punish one of hemisphere’s worst dictators — Nicaragua’s Ortega
Daina Beth Solomon and Alvaro Murillo, Reuters (September 2, 2021): Lost hope: Ortega’s crackdown in Nicaragua stirs fast-growing exodus
AP (September 2, 2021): Nicaragua presidential aspirant charged, will face trial
Charles Lane, Washington Post (August 31, 2021): Opinion: Don’t forget Nicaragua’s political prisoners
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Buenos Aires Times (September 1, 2021): Argentina’s stocks rally as opposition gains ground on Fernández
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Kate Marino, Axios (September 3, 2021): Latin America countries are worried about inflation
Robert Funk, Global Americans (August 31, 2021): The Chilean center-left in times of change
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
AFP (September 5, 2021): Venezuelan Government Signals ‘Partial Agreements’ in Mexico Talks With Opposition
The Economist (September 4, 2021): Nicolás Maduro’s regime and the Venezuelan opposition meet in Mexico: The autocrat wants America to lift sanctions
Ana Vanessa Herrero and Anthony Faiola, Washington Post (September 1, 2021): Venezuelan opposition declares end to boycott, agrees to participate in local and state elections
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras holds presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. These elections are taking place in the context of polarization and a crisis of legitimacy sparked in part by increasing authoritarianism. The 2017 elections were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud, and many believe that there is potential for fraud in the upcoming elections. More
Acadia Brooks, Foreign Brief (August 30, 2021): Honduran General Election Campaigns to Begin
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there could be around 20 candidates from various parties.
Reuters (August 31, 2021): Costa Rica ruling party picks former minister for presidential race
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots recently. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Sergio Guzmán and Johan Marulanda, Global Americans (September 2, 2021): Colombia’s Balancing Act Among the Great Powers
Carlos Tejada and Julie Turkewitz, New York Times (August 30, 2021): Colombia’s Troubles Put a President’s Legacy on the Line: In an interview, Iván Duque defended his performance amid the pandemic and social strife, which could prompt a leftward shift in elections next year.
Past Americas Elections
El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021
El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More
Marcos Aleman, AP (September 4, 2021): El Salvador court drops ban on presidential reelection
Bolivia General Election Re-Run: October 18, 2020
Bolivia held a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him.
Subsequently, Bolivia held local and regional elections in March and April, 2021. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
AFP (September 1, 2021): Rights group presses Bolivia on jailed ex-leader’s health
Suriname General Elections: May 25, 2020
Suriname held elections on May 25, 2020. Dési Bouterse, a leftist who has been a major figure in Suriname politics since 1980, lost his bid for re-election. He initially came to power in 1980 by helping to lead a sergeant’s coup. In 1982, in response to increased calls for a return to civilian rule, the regime murdered 15 prominent opposition activists – the incident, dubbed the December murders, continues to reverberate, and and in November 2019, he was ultimately convicted and sentenced to more than 20 years in prison.
AFP (August 31, 2021): Military court upholds Suriname ex-president’s conviction
NL Times (August 30, 2021): Fmr. Suriname president Bouterse sentenced to 20 years over 1982 murders
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Bahamas Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 16, 2021
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible following assassination of president and catastrophic earthquake)
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: September 3, 2021
Last Updated: September 16, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 3, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A street in Hong Kong. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Mstyslav Chernov (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Japan General Elections: By November 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by November, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, the LDP will hold a leadership contest on September 29. The winner will become prime minister and will lead the party into the general elections. Suga has announced that he will not seek re-election.
Walter Sim, Straits Times (September 4, 2021): Japan’s LDP gains boost for general election after Suga’s decision to quit
Peter Landers, Wall Street Journal (September 3, 2021): Japan’s Next Prime Minister: Who Are the Candidates to Succeed Yoshihide Suga?
Alastair Gale and Peter Landers, Wall Street Journal (September 3, 2021): Japan’s Next Leader Set to Intensify Hawkish China Stance: Two former foreign ministers are likely front-runners in race to succeed Yoshihide Suga
Motoko Rich, New York Times (September 2, 2021): Japan’s Prime Minister Will Step Aside After Just a Year in Office
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press (September 3, 2021): Hong Kong’s civil society under fire: the candidates, the election, then the democracy movement itself
Cheng Yut Yiu, Radio Free Asia (September 1, 2021): Hong Kong Venue Cancels Pro-Democracy Singer’s Sellout Gigs Over ‘Public Order’ Concerns
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Jo Jun-tae, Korea Herald (September 5, 2021): Gyeonggi Gov. Lee confirms lead in ruling party primary race
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
Philippines holds a presidential election on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Andreo Calonzo and Cecilia Yap, Bloomberg (September 2, 2021): Duterte’s Daughter Gets Running Mate Offers for 2022 Elections
William Pesek, Forbes (September 2, 2021): Duterte’s Bid For Vice Presidency Turns Philippines Into A Family Business
Raymund Antonio, Manila Bulletin (September 1, 2021): 1Sambayan seeks probe into ‘web of corruption’ in Duterte administration
Reuters (August 30, 2021): Rival faction in Philippines’ ruling party tries to oust Duterte from chairman role
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Sun Narin, Voice of America (September 3, 2021): Paris Peace Accords’ Legacy in Cambodia Is Mixed and Politically Contentious as 30th Anniversary Nears
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (September 2, 2021): Report Illustrates Snap-Freezing of Cambodia’s Online Space: Since nearly losing an election in 2013, Prime Minister Hun Sen’s government has taken a range of steps to establish a firm grip on digital communications technologies.
Thailand, Bangkok Local Elections and Referendum: TBD
Thai officials have said they will schedule elections soon for various types of local elections (such as Bangkok city council) and potentially a constitutional referendum. These follow provincial elections that took place in December 2020 and municipal elections in March 2021.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
Reuters (September 4, 2021): Thailand’s Prime Minister has survived another no-confidence vote
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (September 2, 2021): Thailand Roiled by Violent Unrest and COVID-19 Decimation
Nepal General Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Kamal Dev Bhattarai, The Diplomat (September 1, 2021): Is Nepal’s Secularism Under Threat? Growing calls for a Hindu state underline popular dissatisfaction with Nepal’s long stretch of political instability.
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Japan, Mayoral Election in Yokohama: August 22, 2021
Australia, Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: September 2, 2021
Last Updated: September 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 2, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia holds parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates. More
Robert Coalson, RFE/RL (September 3, 2021): Crying Foul: Leaked Audio Suggests United Russia Readying Election Fraud
Craig Timberg, Robyn Dixon, and Reed Albergotti, Washington Post (September 2, 2021): Russia’s Internet censor demands Google, Apple remove an opposition app from their stores
Tom Balmforth, Reuters (September 1, 2021): In Russia’s Arctic, Navalny activist’s election bid is crushed
Vladimir Kara-Murza, Washington Post (August 30, 2021): Opinion: The Kremlin’s old methods of rigging elections aren’t working like they used to
Anton Troianovski, New York Times (August 30, 2021): Exile or Jail: The Grim Choice Facing Russian Opposition Leaders: Experts say the current exodus of journalists and dissidents is the biggest wave of political emigration in the country’s post-Soviet history.
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Georgia has scheduled local elections for October 2, 2021, and they are particularly important because – as a result of a deal to resolve the political crisis following last year’s parliamentary elections – they could spark new parliamentary elections if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins less than 43 percent of the proportional vote. However, the ruling Georgian Dream scrapped the agreement in July, raising concerns about Georgia’s political stability. Georgian Dream has re-iterated that it will not hold snap elections in 2022 even if it loses the local elections. The political climate is tense, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout.
Most recently, an uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
Agenda.ge (September 2, 2021): President Zurabishvili says ‘unclear’ why gov’t refused to take EU loan
Dato Parulava, OC Media (September 2, 2021): Analysis | Brokered by Charles Michel, broken by Georgian Dream
Civil.ge (September 2, 2021): GD Thwarts Euro-Atlantic Path, Opposition Tells EU, NATO
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
Uzbekistan is holding a presidential election on October 24, 2021. Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not abl
e to operate freely in the country. Although some had hoped that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev would face a serious challenger this year, that looks increasingly unlikely as would-be challengers are either being denied ballot access or dropping out. More
RFE/RL (September 2, 2021): Not To Be Left Out, Uzbek Lawmakers Pitch ‘Head Of Nation’ Title For Mirziyoev
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
Kyrgyzstan will hold parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (September 2, 2021): Kyrgyzstan Wiretapped Activists, Lawyers, MPs: The Interior Ministry justified the wiretaps as part of investigations into the October 2020 unrest
Reporters Without Borders (August 30, 2021): Kyrgyzstan: Recently-adopted ‘false information’ law threatens free speech
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Moldova held snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016. More
Cristian Gherasim, EU Reporter (September 3, 2021): Moldovans see Russia as its biggest threat and EU integration as a national objective
Transitions Online (September 1, 2021): Transnistrian election fraud ‘a slap in the face of Moldovan democracy’
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. More
Yauhenia Stepus, Institute for War and Peace Reporting (September 2, 2021): Torture Continues in Belarus: Even small acts of defiance can have serious consequences.
Oliver Carroll, The Independent (August 31, 2021): Belarusian prosecutors order harsh 12-year sentence for opposition leader Kolesnikova
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Russia Parliamentary Elections: September 17-19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: September 1, 2021
Last Updated: September 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 1, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. She faces a serious challenge from the left-leaning opposition and the Greens. More
AFP/The Local (September 3, 2021): Why is Norway’s football manager calling for people to vote against the government?
Nerijus Adomaitis, Reuters (August 31, 2021): Climate change in election spotlight in oil giant Norway
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Iceland holds elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government is a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party. More
Jelena Ćirić, Iceland Review (September 1, 2021): First Election Debate Covered Economy, Climate, and Healthcare
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens begun to rival SPD as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world.
However, in recent weeks, SPD has bounced back in the polls, making the election anyone’s game and increasing the likelihood that Germany ends up with three-party governing coalition for the first time in decades. More
The Economist (September 2, 2021): Germany’s election, seen through the bottom of a glass: Conservative Bavarians and left-wing Berliners agree on beer but little else
Matthew Karnitschnig and Hans von der Burchard, Politico (September 1, 2021): Social Democrat Scholz channels Merkel to lead German election race
Euractiv (September 1, 2021): Scholz challenged over potential coalition with leftists
The Economist (August 31 , 2021 – podcast): “It’s extraordinary just how volatile this election campaign has turned out to be”—tumult in Germany
Stratfor (August 31, 2021 – podcast): Essential Geopolitics: Germany’s Election Begins a Future Without Merkel
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021 and Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Austria’s Upper Austria (whose capital is Linz, home of the Linzertorte cake) state holds elections in September. All four parties who have seats in the state legislature – ÖVP, FPÖ, the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the Greens – are part of the state government.
Austria is subsequently due to hold a presidential election by April 2022, but the role is largely ceremonial, with the chancellor instead holding most executive power.
Austria’s federal government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May 2019 following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. Subsequent snap elections gave ÖVP the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Ultimately, ÖVP formed a coalition with the Greens, and Kurz once again became chancellor.
AFP (August 27, 2021): Austria’s former far-right vice chancellor convicted of corruption
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More
Robert Muller, AP (September 2, 2021): Seeking re-election, Czech PM pledges to keep migrants, Brussels at bay
Peter Laca, Bloomberg (August 31, 2021): Czech Prosecutors Delay Decision Whether to Charge Tycoon Leader
James Shotter, Financial Times (August 29, 2021): Czech anti-establishment Pirate party eyes first shot at government: Ivan Bartos hopes to woo voters tired of country’s billionaire prime minister Andrej Babis
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021 (following an indirect presidential election that began on August 30)
Estonia – a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy – holds local elections on October 16, following an indirect presidential election on August 30.
In Estonia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial and representative role, with no executive power. The Riigikogu (parliament) elects the president. Incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid sought re-election. However, the government nominated Alar Karis, director of the Estonian National Museum, and Karis ended up winning.
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. More
Aaron Eglitis, Bloomberg Quint (August 31, 2021): Estonia Replaces President Who Helped Sink Last Government
Louis Westendarp, Politico (August 31, 2021): Estonia elects museum boss as new president
Jari Baker, AP (August 30, 2021): Estonia’s Parliament Fails to Elect President in First Round
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
North Macedonia is due to hold local elections in October 2021. These follow parliamentary elections in July 2020. Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up). The country’s politics are fragmented and fractious. The 2020 elections were extremely close, but ultimately PM Zoran Zaev and his Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) were able to once again form a government with the backing of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the main ethnic Albanian party (ethnic Albanians make up about a quarter of the population).
SDSM also controls most of the municipalities heading into the upcoming local elections, having beaten the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE in a majority of municipalities and ousting the VMRO-DMPNE mayor of Skopje.
Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (September 1, 2021): Vandalised Bulgarian flag provokes new tensions between Sofia, Skopje
AP (August 31, 2021): North Macedonia, Greece, see trade boost after key name deal
Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Bloomberg (August 30, 2021): Balkan State’s EU Entry Talks Hang on Bulgarian Political Crisis
Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021 and Snap Parliamentary Elections (Likely – TBD)
Bulgaria is holding a presidential election on September 14, and will probably hold a third set of parliamentary elections since it looks like no government can be formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4).
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused. Therefore, there is a strong chance of a third election, possibly around the time of the presidential election. More
Reuters (September 2, 2021): Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government
AP (September 2, 2021): Bulgaria to hold presidential elections on Nov. 14
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June
2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Roger Cohen, New York Times (September 2, 2021): The French Left Is in Disarray, but Here Comes Anne Hidalgo: The charismatic and divisive socialist mayor of Paris is eyeing an office that has been occupied by eight male presidents over six decades.
France24 (September 2, 2021 – video): The future of Marseille: a key theme in next year’s French presidential election?
Tom Wheeldon, France24 (September 1, 2021): Macron plans to tackle Marseille’s drug crime, with eye on re-election
Robert Zaretsky, Forward (August 31, 2021): The French Tucker Carlson is Jewish, xenophobic — and maybe a presidential candidate
John Lichfield, The Local (August 31, 2021): ANALYSIS: Which of the 30 candidates has any chance of winning France’s 2022 presidential election?
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: By April 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Sasa Dragojlo, Balkan Insight (August 31, 2021): Green Shoots in Serbia a Worry for Ruling Party and Opponents
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
Balázs Gulyás, The Bulwark (September 1, 2021): An Open Letter to Tucker Carlson from a Hungarian Conservative
Euractiv/AFP (August 31, 2021): Budapest mayor obtains vote on China university in blow for Orban
RFE/RL (August 30, 2021): Hungary’s Election Authority Approves Bid To Hold Referendum On Chinese University
Past Europe Elections
Romania Parliamentary Elections: December 6, 2020
Romania held parliamentary elections on December 6. Amid low turnout due partly to COVID-19, the scandal-plagued leftist Social Democrats (PSD) unexpectedly came in first place. However, a coalition of parties formed a center-right government, headed by Florin Cîțu from the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL). More
Reuters (September 2, 2021): Romania coalition at risk after junior party pulls support for PM
Andrei Chirileasa, Romania Insider (September 1, 2021): Romania’s ruling coalition on the brink of break due to dispute on EUR 10 bln development program
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: August 31, 2021
Last Updated: September 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 31, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Morocco has set legislative, provincial, and local elections for September 8, 2021. The elections are taking place in the context of discontentment and disillusionment. Although the current monarch, King Mohammed VI, has instituted a number of political reforms, he still plays a major role in governing, both through formal structures and informally. Following the 2011 constitutional reforms, the king must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats in parliament, but the king can still circumvent elected officials in various ways (including dissolving parliament or simply issuing decrees).
In the last elections, in 2016, the moderate Islamic democratic Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won the most seats. However, the king sought to sideline PJD as much as possible with ministerial appointments. More
TV5Monde (September 1, 2021 – in French): Morocco: legislative elections with elected officials without much decision-making power
Africanews/AFP (August 27, 2021): Morocco: campaigning begins for September elections
APA (August 25, 2021 – in French): Morocco: digital, a new weapon for candidates in the September 8 elections
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (announced – date not set)
Qatar has announced that it will hold its first-ever parliamentary elections (Shura Council elections) in October 2021. Qatar is an absolute monarchy in which the emir holds all political power. The only elections that the country has ever held have been for the Central Municipal Council, an advisory body with no real power. Political parties are not allowed. Moreover, the vast majority of people who live in Qatar are not citizens, and have no political rights. The Shura Council has existed since 1972, but has few real powers.
Some have criticized these elections as a cosmetic reform undertaken because of increased pressure because Qatar will be hosting the football World Cup in 2022. More
Benjamin Weinthal and Jonathan Spyer, Jerusalem Post (August 31, 2021): Qatar under fire for election crackdown on dissident tribe
Aya Batrawy, AP (August 30, 2021): Qatar emerges as key player in Afghanistan after US pullout
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021 (tentative) and Provincial Elections (due)
Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability.
The current political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls. The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but has since reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. More
The New Arab (August 31, 2021): The Iraq Report: Baghdad hosts regional summit to paper over domestic woes
Qassim Abdul-Zahra and Zeina Karam, AP (August 28, 2021): Iraq brings together Mideast rivals in bid to ease tensions
Al-Monitor (August 27, 2021): Iraq’s Muqtada al-Sadr announces support for elections: Sadr’s announcement comes a month after he called on his supporters to boycott the October elections
Mustafa Shilani, Kurdistan24 (August 26, 2021): Boycott of Iraqi election ‘not an effective strategy’ for parties: UN envoy
UN News (August 25, 2021): Iraq: Clock ticks on all-important elections, commitment to credibility needed
Jordan Local Elections: Fall 2021 (due)
Jordan is due to hold local elections in fall 2021. These follow parliamentary elections, which happened on November 10, 2020. Turnout was low, and both women and Islamist candidates saw poor results. Subsequently, King Abdullah II announced a new high-level committee to enact political reforms. This is not the first such effort in Jordan, and past attempts at change have been a disappointment to those who hope for reform, but it could be promising. More
Jordan Times (August 30, 2021): Lower House approves draft local administration law of 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
Bassem Mroue, AP (September 1, 2021): Hezbollah hammered with criticism amid Lebanon’s crises
Reuters (August 31, 2021): Lebanon parliament speaker Berri urges government formation this week, “not longer”
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed indefinitely
The Palestinian Authority has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. More
Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor (August 31, 2021): Palestinians not optimistic about future, PA faces dwindling popularity
Past Middle East Elections
Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
In July 2021, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup.
Al Jazeera (August 31, 2021): Tunisia issues arrest warrant for former presidential candidate
Raed Ben Maaouia, African Arguments (August 30, 2021): Don’t let Tunisia’s democracy slip
Vivian Yee, New York Times (August 26, 2021): Populist Hero or Demagogue: Who Is Tunisia’s President?
Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.
Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.
Scott Neuman and Deepa Shivaram, NPR (August 31, 2021): With The Americans Gone, Afghanistan Enters Its Uncertain, Taliban-Led Future
https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/1432305166657728515
The Economist (August 28, 2021): Why Afghan officials have washed up in the United Arab Emirates
Ann Marlowe, The Bulwark (August 27, 2021): “Afghanistan Controlled by the Taliban Is Not My Country”: Afghan mayors’ stark choice: Cooperate with the Taliban or flee
Ritika Chopra, Indian Express (August 26, 2021): In hiding overseas, first female head of Afghanistan’s poll panel rues: 20 years of progress lost
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Morocco Legislative, Provincial, and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2, 2021
Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: Fall 2021 (due)
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Algeria Local Elections: November 2022 (due – earlier elections possible)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.