September 20, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Mosque on Bundung Highway in Serekunda, Gambia’s economic hub. Gambia’s December presidential election has been shaken up by the announcement that President Adama Barrow has formed an alliance with former dictator Yahya Jammeh. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Jongleur100 (public domain)
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, an indirect presidential election is planned for October 10, delayed from February 8, 2021. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Al Jazeera (September 18, 2021): UNSC urges Somalia’s feuding leaders to settle dispute: Fifteen-member body calls on government leaders to give top priority to holding long-delayed national elections this year.
Rachel Chason and Omar Faruk, Washington Post (September 18, 2021): How an intelligence officer’s disappearance in Somalia has ripped the government apart
Reuters (September 16, 2021): Somalia’s president suspends PM’s power to hire and fire officials
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021, although some have called for delays due to COVID-19. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More
Mogomotsi Magome, September 20, 2021): South African court OKs new deadline for election candidates
Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times (September 20, 2021): South Africa moves closer to basic income in wake of civil unrest
Lynsey Chutel, New York Times (September 17, 2021): South African Court Rejects Former President’s Plea to Overturn Prison Sentence: The arrest of Jacob Zuma set off days of violent unrest and exposed deep rifts in his party, the African National Congress. But some hailed it as a victory for democracy.
Keith Gottschalk, The Conversation (September 14, 2021): Marriages of inconvenience: the fraught politics of coalitions in South Africa
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Anambra Election
Olufunmilola Olukomaiya, PM News Nigeria (September 15, 2021): Yiaga Africa to deploy 548 observers for Anambra guber poll
General Elections
Samson Itodo, Sahara Reporters (September 20, 2021): Convergence, Divergence, and Dilemmas: An Analysis of Nigeria’s Electoral Bill 2021
BBC (September 15, 2021 – in Pidgin): Goodluck Jonathan join APC? PDP clear ex-President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan defection rumour
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Gambia is due to hold its first presidential election since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box. In a surprising election result, opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy.
In a shock move, Barrow announced an alliance with Jammeh ahead of December’s election. More
Sally Jeng, RFI (September 19, 2021): Gambia Election 2021: Jammeh’s victims worried about ruling party alliance
Achraf Tijani, The Africa Report (September 16, 2021): Gambia: Will Jammeh help Adama Barrow secure a second term?
Emil Touray, AFP (September 14, 2021): Anger as Gambian president allies with ex-dictator’s party
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2022
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 31, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022. More
Mehdi Ba, Jeune Afrique (September 14, 2021 – in French): Senegal: Has the opposition committed hara-kiri?
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Daphné Benoit, AFP (September 20, 2021): French Defence Minister in Mali Amid Russian ‘Mercenary’ Tensions
RFE/RL (September 19, 2021): Mali’s Junta Dismisses Warnings Not To Hire Russia’s Vagner ‘Mercenaries’
Al Jazeera (September 14, 2021): France warns Mali against Russian Wagner mercenary deal: Deal could push relations between France and Mali to breaking point, and underscore growing Russia influence in region.
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Victor Abuso, The Africa Report (September 17, 2021): Kenya: Can the new IEBC conduct free and fair elections in August 2022?
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
Albano Agostinho Troco, The Conversation (September 17, 2021): Angola’s president has little to show for his promise of a break with the authoritarian past
Reuters (September 15, 2021): Angola’s ex-leader Dos Santos back home after 30-month exile -ANGOP
Osvaldo Silva, Al Bawaba (September 14, 2021): State Abuse of Human Rights Rife in Angola
Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)
The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.
The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
Reuters (September 16, 2021): Police beat journalist, fire tear gas during Congo election protest
Sudan General Elections: 2024 (due)
Sudan plans to hold general elections in 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. However, numerous challenges remain.
Simon Marks, Bloomberg (September 15, 2021): Surging Violence in Sudan Regions Casts Pall on Democracy Hopes
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.
Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo is challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More
AFP (September 19, 2021): Guinea’s junta rules out exile for ousted president as opposition activists return to Conakry
Al Jazeera (September 16, 2021): ECOWAS resorts to sanctions over Guinea and Mali coups
Ekow Dontoh and Baudelaire Mieu, Bloomberg (September 16, 2021): West African Leaders Call for Guinea Elections in Six Months
Boubacar Diallo and Krista Larson, AP (September 16, 2021): Military junta opens talks over Guinea’s future post-coup
Jeffrey Smith and Jonathan Moakes, Foreign Policy (September 14, 2021): Guinea’s Military Coup Was Both Predictable and Avoidable
Past Africa Elections
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Sishuwa Sishuwa, African Arguments (September 17, 2021): Should Zambia’s new president fire all his predecessor’s appointees?
Côte d’Ivoire Parliamentary Elections: March 6, 2021 and Presidential Election: October 31, 2020
Côte d’Ivoire just completed a major election cycle that began in turbulent fashion when incumbent president Alasanne Ouattara sought and won a controversial third term. The opposition boycotted the presidential election. Protests followed, as well as arrests of opposition members.
However, during the March parliamentary elections, the situation calmed down a bit. Following discussions and the release of some opposition figures, the opposition participated in the legislative elections.
Former president Laurent Gbagbo cast a long shadow over the recent election cycle. He had been tried by the International Criminal Court following violence surrounding his refusal to accept his loss of the 2010 election. Gbagbo was ultimately acquitted, but an appeal against the acquittal kept him in Belgium until this year. He has now returned home. More
The Conversation (September 15, 2021): Gbagbo returns to politics. What it means for Côte d’Ivoire
Rwanda Local Elections: 2021 (due – date not set)
Rwanda is due to hold local elections in 2021. Since the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has been stable but authoritarian. Opposition figures are frequently imprisoned and sometimes killed or disappeared.
Abdi Latif Dahir, New York Times (September 20, 2021): From Hero of ‘Hotel Rwanda,’ to Dissident, to 25-Year Prison Sentence: The trial of Paul Rusesabagina, whose story was portrayed in the Oscar-nominated movie, was denounced by human rights advocates as a “show trial” intended to silence critics of Rwanda’s president.
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (Proposed – twice delayed, from August 8 and August 29)
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021 (Following delays)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Tentative)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: September 22, 2021
Last Updated: October 1, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 22, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
On Sunday, Germany holds key elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Photo credit: Flickr/Arno Mikkor, EU2017EE (CC BY 2.0)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Iceland holds elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government is a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party. More
AFP (September 23, 2021): Icelanders go to polls fearing a big ‘unstable’ coalition
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens begun to rival SPD as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world.
However, in recent weeks, SPD has bounced back in the polls, making the election anyone’s game and increasing the likelihood that Germany ends up with three-party governing coalition for the first time in decades. More
Nic Houghton, The Local Germany (September 22, 2021): Why Bavaria does politics differently to the rest of Germany
Holly Ellyatt, CNBC (September 21, 2021): Germany’s election race is too close to call as Socialists’ poll lead narrows
The Economist (September 18, 2021): The warring parties’ plans for Germany’s economy are full of holes: The post-election coalition talks are likely to be extremely arduous
Matthias Matthijs, Council on Foreign Relations (September 17, 2021): Merkel’s Legacy and the Future of Germany
Frank Jordans, AP (September 15, 2021): Sidelined by rivals, Germany’s far-right AfD bides time
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Portugal holds local elections on September 26. The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election and was re-elected in January 2021. More
Paula Martins, The Portugal News (September 16, 2021): Who are the main parties for the local elections?
San Marino Abortion Referendum: September 26, 2021
San Marino, one of Europe’s smallest states, holds a referendum on legalizing abortion on September 26, 2021. It is a controversial topic in this deeply conservative country.
Angelo Amante and Emily Roe, Reuters (September 20, 2021): San Marino abortion debate heats up ahead of historic referendum
Switzerland Referendums: September 26, 2021
Switzerland holds referendums frequently (Swiss citizens are fans of direct democracy), and the next ones come on September 26. The first question will pertain to taxes, and the second will be on marriage equality.
Silke Koltrowitz and Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi, Cecile Mantovani, Reuters (September 22, 2021): Divided Swiss to vote on same-sex marriage
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More
Reuters (September 22, 2021): Czech far right sets ‘Czexit’ referendum law as price for post-vote talks
William Nattrass, The Independent (September 19, 2021): Czech elections: governing party battles to fend off meteoric rise of Pirate party amid voter scepticism
Tim Gosling, Times of London (September 19, 2021): Pirates on the defensive in Czech elections: Led by Ivan Bartos, the party had a commanding lead in opinion polls until it came under sustained attack by incumbent prime minister Andrej Barbis
Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Bulgaria is holding a presidential election on November 14 along with a third set of parliamentary elections since no government was formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4). In Bulgaria’s parliamentary system, the prime minister holds executive power, while the president is largely ceremonial.
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused. Therefore, Bulgarians will head to the polls for a third time. More
Boyko Vassilev, Transitions Online (September 20, 2021): Will the Third Time Be a Charm?
Reuters (September 19, 2021): New centrist faction to run in Bulgaria’s third election this year
Denitsa Koseva, bne IntelliNews (September 16, 2021): Balkan Blog: Bulgaria’s Harvard-educated saviours-in-waiting
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Max Fisher, New York Times (September 22, 2021): France, Striving for Global Power, Still Struggles to Get It
Samuel Abettan and Charlotte de Montpellier, ING (September 22, 2021): French elections: A Macron-Le Pen rematch is far from guaranteed
Elizabeth Pineau, Reuters (September 21, 2021): Right-wing chat-show celebrity may alter France’s election dynamics
Dustin Jones, NPR (September 19, 2021): Why A Submarine Deal Has France At Odds With The U.S., U.K. And Australia
Rick Noack, Washington Post (September 18, 2021): Why the French are so furious at the Biden administration over a derailed submarine deal
Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times (September 17, 2021): From TV to the French Presidency? A Right-Wing Star Is Inspired by Trump Éric Zemmour, a writer and TV celebrity known for his far-right nationalism, dominates political talk in France as he weighs a run for president.
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
RFE/RL (September 20, 2021): Orban Sets Hungarian Election Tone With Billions In Promises
DW (September 18, 2021): Hungarian opposition mounts challenge to Orban with unified primaries
Nich Cohen, The Guardian (September 18, 2021): Meet the brave, consensual mayor set to face down Hungary’s autocrat
Vlagyiszlav Makszimov, Euractiv (September 16, 2021): Opposition-led Hungarian capital holds democracy conference in sign of defiance
Past Europe Elections
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway held parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who had led a center-right coalition since 2013, suffered a defeat from the left-leaning opposition, which will now form a government (the exact makeup remains to be seen). More
Terje Solsvik, Reuters (September 26, 2021): Norway’s election winners to meet in bid to form majority government
AFP/The Local (September 15, 2021): Norway election: Is the Nordic swing to the left nothing but an illusion?
Albania Parliamentary Elections: April 25, 2021
Albania held parliamentary elections on April 25, 2021 in a tense political climate with several violent incidents. Since communism collapsed in 1990, Albania has held competitive elections and several transitions of power between political parties. The elections were close, and the incumbent Socialist Party won a third term in office, defeating the main opposition center-right Democratic Party. More
Todd Prince, RFE/RL (September 19, 2021): U.S. Seeks Acceleration Of EU-Balkan Integration, Senior Official Says
Reuters (September 17, 2021): Albania votes in its first female dominated government
Llazar Semini, AP (September 16, 2021): Albania claims global leadership for women in government
Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: August 30, 2020
Montenegro held parliamentary elections on August 30, 2020, the fifth since independence in 2006. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro will be the next prime minister. The political base of the new coalition is generally pro-Moscow.
Samir Kajosevic, Balkan Insight (September 16, 2021): Reshuffle Demand Further Strains Montenegro’s Fragile Govt
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: September 21, 2021
Last Updated: September 30, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 21, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2, 2021
Qatar has announced that it will hold its first-ever parliamentary elections (Shura Council elections) on October 2, 2021. Qatar is an absolute monarchy in which the emir holds all political power. The only elections that the country has ever held have been for the Central Municipal Council, an advisory body with no real power. Political parties are not allowed. Moreover, the vast majority of people who live in Qatar are not citizens, and have no political rights. The Shura Council has existed since 1972, but has few real powers. \
Some have criticized these elections as a cosmetic reform undertaken because of increased pressure because Qatar will be hosting the football World Cup in 2022. More
Gulf Centre for Human Rights, IFEX (September 20, 2021): Qatar: Demonstrators remain detained for protesting election laws
Sidi Mohamed, The Peninsula Qatar (September 16, 2021): 28 women among 284 in race for Shura Council
Kuwait Times (September 15, 2021): Campaigning opens for first ever Qatar legislative polls
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021 (tentative) and Provincial Elections (due)
Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability.
The current political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls. The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but has since reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. More
Chloe Cornish, Financial Times (September 21, 2021): Moqtada al-Sadr seizes the moment ahead of Iraq elections
Haider Husseini and Mina Aldroubi, The National UAE (September 17, 2021): Iraq’s young voters believe election can change political landscape
Charlotte Bruneau, Reuters (September 16, 2021): Braving intimidation, hundreds of Iraqi women run for parliament
Sinan Mahmoud, The National UAE (September 14, 2021): Iraq election: candidates get to work to win over voters – Iraqis to choose from 3,249 politicians competing for 328 seats when polls open on October 10
Algeria Early Local Elections: November 27, 2021
Algeria plans to hold early local elections on November 27, 2021. These follow the snap elections held on June 12, 2021, following more than two years of protests by the Hirak movement. However, the government’s election plan did not actually satisfied the Hirak, who boycotted the elections and continue to protest. The absence of the Hirak, who are mostly secular, from the elections has paved the way for Islamist parties to become the main opposition. Ultimately, the FLN, the country’s long-dominant nationalist secular party, won the elections.
Stephanie Hanes, Washington Post (September 17, 2021): Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Algeria’s former surveillance-state strongman, dies at 84
Committee to Protect Journalists (September 15, 2021): Algerian journalist Mohamed Mouloudj detained on charges of terrorism and spreading false news
Palestinian Authority Local Elections: December 11, 2021, plus Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed indefinitely
The Palestinian Authority has proposed holding local elections on December 11, 2021. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. More
Khaled Abu Toameh, Jerusalem Post (September 21, 2021): Palestinian factions oppose PA plan to hold municipal elections
AP (September 21, 2021): Nearly 80 Percent of Palestinians Want Abbas to Resign, New Poll Finds
AFP (September 17, 2021): Palestinian municipal elections in West Bank, Gaza scheduled for December: Electoral commission says vote depends on Hamas allowing poll to take place in the Strip
Khaled Abu Toameh, Jerusalem Post (September 16, 2021): Palestinians to hold municipal elections in December: The Palestinian Authority has decided to hold municipal elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in December for the first time since 2017.
Daoud Kuttab, Al-Monitor (September 15, 2021): Palestinian NGOs begin campaign against political corruption
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021 (tentative)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed indefinitely due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. More
Al Jazeera (September 22, 2021): Libya: Haftar stands down from military role before polls: Libyan media said move paves way for Haftar to run for president under controversial new law.
The Arab Weekly (September 21, 2021): Unsure of Libya’s upcoming presidential elections, Islamists prefer to delay them
AFP (September 16, 2021): Controversy over voting law overshadows Libya election
Al Jazeera (September 16, 2021): Egypt’s el-Sisi backs December elections in Libya: Egyptian president holds talks with Libya’s interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, days after meeting renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
Hanin Ghaddar, Politico (September 21, 2021): Opinion | Hezbollah’s Grip on Lebanon Is Weakening. Here’s How Washington Can Help.
Zinya Salfiti, Foreign Policy (September 20, 2021): Does Lebanon Finally Have a Government That Can Fix the Mess? Probably not. But after a year of stalemate, even old faces are better than none.
Becky Anderson, Zeena Saifi and Mostafa Salem, CNN (September 17, 2021): New Lebanon PM seeks ‘quick fixes’ to help his country out of economic crisis
Hanan Hamdan, Al-Monitor (September 18, 2021): Will Iranian fuel solve fuel crisis in Lebanon? Lebanese economists do not see any benefit from the Iranian fuel shipments that recently entered Lebanon, with support from Hezbollah, amid the worsening fuel crisis in the cash-strapped country.
Issam Abdallah, Reuters (September 17, 2021): Feted with petals, Hezbollah brings Iranian fuel into Lebanon
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Bahrain is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. Since a 2011 uprising, Bahrain has become increasingly authoritarian and repressive, especially vis a vis the Shi’ite opposition (Bahrain is more than half Shi’hite but ruled by a Sunni royal family). The opposition was barred from participating in the last elections in 2018. Moreover, the monarch has executive power as well as the power to appoint the prime minister and cabinet. Therefore, parliament is generally not very powerful.
i24News (September 17, 2021): In First for Israeli Diplomat, Lapid to Visit Bahrain
Lisa Barrington, Reuters (September 15, 2021): Bahrain releases some political prisoners under new law
Past Middle East Elections
Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Morocco held legislative, provincial, and local elections on September 8, 2021. The elections took place in the context of discontentment and disillusionment. The moderate Islamic democratic Party of Justice and Development (PJD), which won the most seats in the 2016 elections, lost badly and will not form the next government.
Although the current monarch, King Mohammed VI, has instituted a number of political reforms, he still plays a major role in governing, both through formal structures and informally. Following the 2011 constitutional reforms, the king must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats in parliament, but the king can still circumvent elected officials in various ways (including dissolving parliament or simply issuing decrees).
AP (September 22, 2021): Morocco: 3 parties agree to form new coalition government
Idris Al-Kanbouri, The Arab Weekly (September 18, 2021): The fall of Morocco’s PJD is that of political Islam: Experience has shown that voter reluctance to participate in the polls favours Islamists, while high turnouts weaken them.
Cathrin Schaer, DW (September 15, 2021): An end to neo-Islamism in the Middle East?
Magdi Abdelhadi, BBC (September 16, 2021): How Morocco’s king dealt a blow to political Islam
Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
In July 2021, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup.
Mohamed Argoubi, Reuters (September 21, 2021): Tunisian president declares transitional rules, new electoral law
The New Arab (September 21, 2021): Tunisia party says president’s power grab risks ‘dismantling state’
Bouazza Ben Bouazza, AP (September 18, 2021): Dueling Tunisian protests erupt over president’s power grab
The Economist (September 18, 2021): What next for Islamists in the Arab world? Setbacks in Morocco and Tunisia mark the end of a tough decade for Islamists
Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.
Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.
Kathy Gannon, AP (September 16, 2021): Friction among Taliban pragmatists, hard-liners intensifies
Regional Analysis
Shibley Telhami and Marc Lynch, Brookings Institution (September 20, 2021): Academic experts believe that Middle East politics are actually getting worse
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Morocco Legislative, Provincial, and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2, 2021
Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: Fall 2021 (due)
Palestinian Authority Local Elections: December 11, 2021 (tentative)
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Algeria Early Local Elections: November 27, 2021
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: September 20, 2021
Last Updated: September 28, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 20, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, an indirect presidential election is planned for October 10, delayed from February 8, 2021. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Al Jazeera (September 18, 2021): UNSC urges Somalia’s feuding leaders to settle dispute: Fifteen-member body calls on government leaders to give top priority to holding long-delayed national elections this year.
Rachel Chason and Omar Faruk, Washington Post (September 18, 2021): How an intelligence officer’s disappearance in Somalia has ripped the government apart
Reuters (September 16, 2021): Somalia’s president suspends PM’s power to hire and fire officials
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021, although some have called for delays due to COVID-19. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More
Mogomotsi Magome, September 20, 2021): South African court OKs new deadline for election candidates
Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times (September 20, 2021): South Africa moves closer to basic income in wake of civil unrest
Lynsey Chutel, New York Times (September 17, 2021): South African Court Rejects Former President’s Plea to Overturn Prison Sentence: The arrest of Jacob Zuma set off days of violent unrest and exposed deep rifts in his party, the African National Congress. But some hailed it as a victory for democracy.
Keith Gottschalk, The Conversation (September 14, 2021): Marriages of inconvenience: the fraught politics of coalitions in South Africa
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Anambra Election
Olufunmilola Olukomaiya, PM News Nigeria (September 15, 2021): Yiaga Africa to deploy 548 observers for Anambra guber poll
General Elections
Samson Itodo, Sahara Reporters (September 20, 2021): Convergence, Divergence, and Dilemmas: An Analysis of Nigeria’s Electoral Bill 2021
BBC (September 15, 2021 – in Pidgin): Goodluck Jonathan join APC? PDP clear ex-President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan defection rumour
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Gambia is due to hold its first presidential election since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box. In a surprising election result, opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy.
In a shock move, Barrow announced an alliance with Jammeh ahead of December’s election. More
Sally Jeng, RFI (September 19, 2021): Gambia Election 2021: Jammeh’s victims worried about ruling party alliance
Achraf Tijani, The Africa Report (September 16, 2021): Gambia: Will Jammeh help Adama Barrow secure a second term?
Emil Touray, AFP (September 14, 2021): Anger as Gambian president allies with ex-dictator’s party
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2022
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 31, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022. More
Mehdi Ba, Jeune Afrique (September 14, 2021 – in French): Senegal: Has the opposition committed hara-kiri?
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Daphné Benoit, AFP (September 20, 2021): French Defence Minister in Mali Amid Russian ‘Mercenary’ Tensions
RFE/RL (September 19, 2021): Mali’s Junta Dismisses Warnings Not To Hire Russia’s Vagner ‘Mercenaries’
Al Jazeera (September 14, 2021): France warns Mali against Russian Wagner mercenary deal: Deal could push relations between France and Mali to breaking point, and underscore growing Russia influence in region.
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Victor Abuso, The Africa Report (September 17, 2021): Kenya: Can the new IEBC conduct free and fair elections in August 2022?
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
Albano Agostinho Troco, The Conversation (September 17, 2021): Angola’s president has little to show for his promise of a break with the authoritarian past
Reuters (September 15, 2021): Angola’s ex-leader Dos Santos back home after 30-month exile -ANGOP
Osvaldo Silva, Al Bawaba (September 14, 2021): State Abuse of Human Rights Rife in Angola
Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)
The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.
The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
Reuters (September 16, 2021): Police beat journalist, fire tear gas during Congo election protest
Sudan General Elections: 2024 (due)
Sudan plans to hold general elections in 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. However, numerous challenges remain.
Simon Marks, Bloomberg (September 15, 2021): Surging Violence in Sudan Regions Casts Pall on Democracy Hopes
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.
Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo is challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More
AFP (September 19, 2021): Guinea’s junta rules out exile for ousted president as opposition activists return to Conakry
Al Jazeera (September 16, 2021): ECOWAS resorts to sanctions over Guinea and Mali coups
Ekow Dontoh and Baudelaire Mieu, Bloomberg (September 16, 2021): West African Leaders Call for Guinea Elections in Six Months
Boubacar Diallo and Krista Larson, AP (September 16, 2021): Military junta opens talks over Guinea’s future post-coup
Jeffrey Smith and Jonathan Moakes, Foreign Policy (September 14, 2021): Guinea’s Military Coup Was Both Predictable and Avoidable
Past Africa Elections
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Sishuwa Sishuwa, African Arguments (September 17, 2021): Should Zambia’s new president fire all his predecessor’s appointees?
Côte d’Ivoire Parliamentary Elections: March 6, 2021 and Presidential Election: October 31, 2020
Côte d’Ivoire just completed a major election cycle that began in turbulent fashion when incumbent president Alasanne Ouattara sought and won a controversial third term. The opposition boycotted the presidential election. Protests followed, as well as arrests of opposition members.
However, during the March parliamentary elections, the situation calmed down a bit. Following discussions and the release of some opposition figures, the opposition participated in the legislative elections.
Former president Laurent Gbagbo cast a long shadow over the recent election cycle. He had been tried by the International Criminal Court following violence surrounding his refusal to accept his loss of the 2010 election. Gbagbo was ultimately acquitted, but an appeal against the acquittal kept him in Belgium until this year. He has now returned home. More
The Conversation (September 15, 2021): Gbagbo returns to politics. What it means for Côte d’Ivoire
Rwanda Local Elections: 2021 (due – date not set)
Rwanda is due to hold local elections in 2021. Since the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has been stable but authoritarian. Opposition figures are frequently imprisoned and sometimes killed or disappeared.
Abdi Latif Dahir, New York Times (September 20, 2021): From Hero of ‘Hotel Rwanda,’ to Dissident, to 25-Year Prison Sentence: The trial of Paul Rusesabagina, whose story was portrayed in the Oscar-nominated movie, was denounced by human rights advocates as a “show trial” intended to silence critics of Rwanda’s president.
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (Proposed – twice delayed, from August 8 and August 29)
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021 (Following delays)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Tentative)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: September 18, 2021
Last Updated: September 28, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
September 18, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Canada will hold snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who currently heads a minority government, is hoping to win a majority for his Liberals. However, many Canadians do not want elections at this time, making the decision a major gamble.
Rob Gillies, AP (September 18, 2021): EXPLAINER: What are the issues in Canada’s close election?
Paula Newton, CNN (September 17, 2021): Canada’s cliffhanger election is heating up. Some fear US-style political polarization will follow
Andy Blatchford, Politico (September 16, 2021): Top Trudeau rival O’Toole would push for Canada to join U.S., U.K. and Australia security alliance
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Elliott Abrams, National Review (September 19, 2021): Nicaragua’s Dangerous Family Dictatorship: Ortega is the new Somoza, and the next election will only extend his self-serving regime.
Sam Jones, The Guardian (September 18, 2021): ‘A feeling of deja vu’: author Sergio Ramírez on ex-comrade Ortega and Nicaraguan history repeating
MercoPress (September 16, 2021): Ortega leads Nicaragua towards authoritarianism, says Blinken
AFP (September 14, 2021): Top Nicaragua writer predicts Ortega govt will “fall”
Lisa Schlein, Voice of America (September 14, 2021): Pre-Election Crackdown on Civil and Political Rights in Nicaragua Worsens
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible)
Haiti plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises. The political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Camilo Montoya-Galvez, CBS News (September 18, 2021): U.S. increases deportations to Haiti amid spike in border arrivals
Reuters (September 16, 2021): Under scrutiny in murder inquiry, Haiti’s PM receives international backing
Sarah Marsh, Reuters (September 15, 2021): Haiti PM fires prosecutor seeking charges against him in president’s killing
Editorial Board, Washington Post (September 15, 2021): Opinion: Haiti’s prime minister is stonewalling and obstructing the investigation into the president’s assassination
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
The Economist (September 18, 2021): Argentine voters deal a blow to the ruling Peronist coalition: The primary elections are both a referendum on the government and an augury for elections in November
Ignacio Portes and Michael Stott, Financial Times (September 18, 2021): Argentina’s Cristina Fernández forces weakened president into reshuffle: Alberto Fernández sacrifices cabinet chief after heavy defeat in midterm primaries
Global Americans (September 17, 2021): Opposition surges in Argentine primary elections, in blow to Fernández
Mark P. Jones, Forbes (September 13, 2021): A Political Earthquake In Argentina’s Vaca Muerta
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Holly K. Sonneland and Hope Wilkinson, AS/COA (September 16, 2021): Explainer: Who’s Who in Chile’s 2021 Presidential Race
Octavio García Soto interviewing Cristóbal Andrade, Jacobin (September 13, 2021): The Anti-Capitalist T. Rex Helping Write Chile’s New Constitution
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
AFP (September 19, 2021): Venezuela’s Maduro sees legitimacy challenged in rare trip abroad
Reuters (September 17, 2021): Venezuela government accuses opposition of ‘sabotaging’ Mexico talks
Fabiola Zerpa, Bloomberg (September 15, 2021): U.S. to Consider Citgo Shares Sale Next Year in Blow to Guaido
Nick Schager, Daily Beast (September 13, 2021): Capturing Venezuela’s Descent Into Socialist Hell
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras holds presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries.
These elections are taking place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Castro is running again this year, after winning the LIBRE party primary.
On the geopolitical front, Honduras is one of the few countries that maintains formal diplomatic relations Taiwan, but Beijing has been pressuring politicians to change that. LIBRE has said that it will switch its recognition to Beijing if it wins these elections. More
Reuters (September 13, 2021): China taking advantage of Honduras vote, Taipei says
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Jack Nicas, New York Times (September 15, 2021): Bolsonaro’s Ban on Removing Social Media Posts Is Overturned in Brazil
Michael Stott and Brian Harris, Financial Times (September 13, 2021): Brazil governor pitches third way between Bolsonaro and Lula in 2022 elections
Past Americas Elections
Bahamas Snap General Elections: September 16, 2021
Bahamas held snap elections on September 16, eight months early. The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power.
In these elections, PLP ousted FNM.
Jim Wyss, Bloomberg (September 16, 2021): Bahamas Voters Oust Government After 16% Drop in Economic Output
Neil Hartnell, Reuters (September 16, 2021): Bahamas PM concedes defeat in polls overshadowed by COVID-19
Mexico Legislative, Gubernatorial, and Local Elections: June 6, 2021
Mexico held high-stakes midterm legislative elections, as well as gubernatorial elections in 15 of Mexico’s 31 states, and local elections, on June 6, 2021. In total, more than 21,000 offices are at stake – the biggest elections in Mexico’s history.
These elections were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results have made it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (September 18, 2021): Mexico rolled out the red carpet for Cuba’s dictator, but is unlikely to lead a leftist bloc | Opinion
Reuters (September 17, 2021): Mexico softens tone on possible OAS shake-up plans
El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021
El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More
Marcos Alemán, AP (September 15, 2021): Thousands protest against Bukele government in El Salvador
Bolivia General Election Re-Run: October 18, 2020
Bolivia held a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him.
Subsequently, Bolivia held local and regional elections in March and April, 2021. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
Richard Lapper, Americas Quarterly (September 14, 2021): Bolivia Fails to Turn the Page
AFP (September 14, 2021): Six months after arrest, no trial date for Bolivian ex-president
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible following assassination of president and catastrophic earthquake)
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
September 2021 Election Outlook
Last Updated: November 3, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 214,000
At stake: Office of the president
Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 36.6 million
At stake: All seats in the legislature, and therefore the government because Morocco is a parliamentary system. Various local and provincial offices are also up for election
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Government Type: Executive-led limited democracy; a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China
Population: 630,000
At stake: All seats in Macaus legislature
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.5 million
At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government, because Norway is a parliamentary system
Bahamas Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 16, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 352,000
At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government.
Russia Parliamentary and Some State Elections: September 17-19, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142 million
At stake: Seats in the State Duma (parliament), plus various regional offices
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 37.9 million
At stake: All seats in parliament and therefore the composition of the government
Isle of Man Parliamentary Elections: September 23, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary democracy – self-governing British Crown Dependency
Population: 91, 000
At stake: All seats in the House of Keys
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Unitary Parliamentary Republic
Population: 354,000
At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the government, because Iceland is a parliamentary system.
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: September 26, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 79.9 million
At stake: All seats in the Bundestag, plus the composition of the government, because Germany is a parliamentary system. Also, state governments in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.3 million
At stake: Local government offices throughout Portugal
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 8.9 million
At stake: State government and local offices in Upper Austria
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 214,000
At stake: Office of the president
São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) is due to hold a presidential runoff, following the first round on July 18, 2021. The runoff was supposed to take place on August 8, but faced a delay because the candidate who placed third in the first round – and thus did not make the runoff – contested the results. However, a court ordered the runoff to go forward, but has been delayed to September 5.
The current president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, is not running for a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.
In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI will face off against former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy.
In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.
Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 36.6 million
At stake: All seats in the legislature, and therefore the government because Morocco is a parliamentary system. Various local and provincial offices are also up for election
Morocco has set legislative, provincial, and local elections for September 8, 2021. The elections are taking place in the context of discontentment and disillusionment. Although the current monarch, King Mohammed VI, has instituted a number of political reforms, he still plays a major role in governing, both through formal structures and informally. Following the 2011 constitutional reforms, the king must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats in parliament, but the king can still circumvent elected officials in various ways (including dissolving parliament or simply issuing decrees).
In the last elections, in 2016, the moderate Islamic democratic Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won the most seats. However, the king sought to sideline PJD as much as possible with ministerial appointments.
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Government Type: Executive-led limited democracy; a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China
Population: 630,000
At stake: All seats in Macaus legislature
Macau is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, having reverted from Portuguese control to Chinese control in 1999. The main industry is gaming, with a casino sector seven times the size of that of Las Vegas. The legislature is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians, who hold 29 out of the 33 seats, with pro-democracy politicians holding the remaining four.
Most recently, pro-democracy candidates were banned from the upcoming elections, mirroring Hong Kong’s crackdown on democracy.
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.5 million
At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government, because Norway is a parliamentary system
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. She faces a serious challenge from the left-leaning opposition and the Greens. More
United States, California Gubernatorial Recall Election: September 14, 2021
California will vote on whether to recall Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, on September 14, 2021.
Bahamas Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 16, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 352,000
At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government.
Bahamas will hold snap elections on September 16, eight months early. The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power.
Russia Parliamentary and Some State Elections: September 17-19, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142 million
At stake: Seats in the State Duma (parliament), plus various regional offices
Russia holds parliamentary elections September 17-19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates.
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 37.9 million
At stake: All seats in parliament and therefore the composition of the government
Canada will hold snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who currently heads a minority government, is hoping to win a majority for his Liberals. However, many Canadians do not want elections at this time, making the decision a major gamble.
Isle of Man Parliamentary Elections: September 23, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary democracy – self-governing British Crown Dependency
Population: 91, 000
At stake: All seats in the House of Keys
The Isle of Man, a self-governing British Crown Dependency, holds elections to the House of Keys (parliament) on September 23, 2021. The House of Keys dates back to at least 1417. These follow July’s local elections and will likely be a sleepy affair.
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Unitary Parliamentary Republic
Population: 354,000
At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the government, because Iceland is a parliamentary system.
Iceland holds elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government is a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party.
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: September 26, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 79.9 million
At stake: All seats in the Bundestag, plus the composition of the government, because Germany is a parliamentary system. Also, state governments in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens begun to rival SPD as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world.
However, in recent weeks, SPD has bounced back in the polls, making the election anyone’s game and increasing the likelihood that Germany ends up with three-party governing coalition for the first time in decades. More
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.3 million
At stake: Local government offices throughout Portugal
Portugal holds local elections on September 26. The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election and was re-elected in January 2021.
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 8.9 million
At stake: State government and local offices in Upper Austria
Austria’s Upper Austria (whose capital is Linz, home of the Linzertorte cake) state holds elections in September. All four parties who have seats in the state legislature – Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’ center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the Greens – are part of the state government.
Austria is subsequently due to hold a presidential election by April 2022, but the role is largely ceremonial, with the chancellor instead holding most executive power.