August 23, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The gate of Addis Ababa University. Ethiopia’s stability is fragile amid ethnic violence and political tensions. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Sailko (CC BY 3.0)
Upcoming Africa Elections
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)
São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) is due to hold a presidential runoff, following the first round on July 18, 2021. The runoff was supposed to take place on August 8, but faced a delay because the candidate who placed third in the first round – and thus did not make the runoff – contested the results. However, a court ordered the runoff to go forward, but has been delayed to September 5.
The current president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, is not running for a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.
In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI will face off against former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy.
In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.
LUSA (August 23, 2021 – in Portuguese): Opposition blames the ruling party for the “serious” political crisis in São Tomé
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021
Ethiopia held general elections on June 21, 2021, after several postponements. These elections took place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, previously a reformer (he even won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019) but most recently an authoritarian, won in a landslide. Polling couldn’t happen in several areas due to the ongoing conflict, so make-up votes are due to take place this fall.
AFP (August 24, 2021): Ethiopia announces fresh delays to polls
Stratfor (August 24, 2021 – podcast): Essential Geopolitics: Ethiopia and Tigray Forces Battle On…Toward What?
Charles A. Ray, Foreign Policy Research Institute (August 18, 2021): Violence in Tigray Threatens Ethiopia’s Already Fragile Stability
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections in the preceding months) POSTPONED – no new date set
Somalia was supposed to hold an indirect presidential election on February 8, 2021, following indirect parliamentary elections in December 2020. However, the elections have been delayed, and the term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Mohamed Kahiye, Voice of America (August 23, 2021): Somali Opposition Leaders Reject New Election Roadmap
Amr Emam, Al-Monitor (August 21, 2021): Egypt pledges support to Somalia, eyeing Horn of Africa influence
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Vatican News (August 23, 2021): Nigerian Bishops call on Catholic politicians to make a difference to the nation’s politics
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Stephen L. Esquith, The Conversation (August 24, 2021): Mali’s roadmap for lasting peace has laudable goals: but it doesn’t go far enough
RFI (August 21, 2021): Ecowas demands justification for detention of Mali’s former interim leaders
AFP (August 18, 2021): Mali timeline: A year of turmoil
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kwame Otiende, Mail and Guardian (August 24, 2021): Kenya: How the ‘Chameleon’ Jomo Kenyatta did it
David Herbling, Bloomberg (August 20, 2021): Kenyan Court Backs Ruling Against Plan to Reshape Government
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays – the military has said it plans to rule the country for 18 months. More
Ruth Maclean and Mady Camara, New York Times (August 24, 2021): Hissène Habré, Ex-President of Chad Jailed for War Crimes, Dies at 79
AFP (August 21, 2021): Chad says will withdraw half its troops from G5 Sahel force
Editorial Board, Africa Times (August 24, 2021: National dialogue raises hopes for peace in Chad
Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)
The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.
The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
David Zounmenou, ISS Today (August 24, 2021): Limiting presidential eligibility could drive deep divides in the DRC
Sudan General Elections: 2024 (due)
Sudan plans to hold general elections in 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. However, numerous challenges remain.
Dabanga (August 20, 2021): Sudan TSC tells political parties to prepare for elections
Past Africa Elections
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Chris Changwe Nshimbi, The Conversation (August 22, 2021): Why Edgar Lungu and his party lost Zambia’s 2021 elections
Phillan Zamchiya, Daily Maverick (August 19, 2021): Zambia elections: Six lessons for African electoral democracy
The Economist (August 19, 2021): The task facing Zambia’s new president, Hakainde Hichilema
Lynsey Chutel, News24 (August 18, 2021): Hichilema’s win in Zambia inspires hope for southern Africa’s opposition leaders, says Maimane
Michelle Lewis, Electrek (August 18, 2021): Electric cars need cobalt and copper, and Zambia’s president-elect wants to supply it
Central African Republic Partial Legislative Elections and Runoffs: March 14, 2021
The Central African Republic (CAR) held presidential and partial legislative elections on December 27, 2020 in the midst of a worsening security situation. Rebels disrupted voting in some areas, so consequently, those constituencies held the first round of their legislative elections on March 14, 2021. In addition, some of the constituencies that did vote on December 27 held runoff elections for their legislators.
These elections took place in the context of a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Sectarian clashes have been taking place since 2013. Moreover, Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. More
Jack Losh, Foreign Policy (August 21, 2021): In Central Africa, Russia Won the War—but It’s Losing the Peace: Putin’s pursuit of influence, arms sales, and mercenary meddling in the Central African Republic has left Moscow mired in a quagmire
RFI (August 20, 2021): French wine giant Castel accused of funding rebels in CAR
Ronald Lwere Kato, Africanews (August 18, 2021): Central African Republic President’s rival flees after treason charges
Regional News and Analysis
Lazarus Chakwera, Newsweek (August 23, 2021): Democracy and Security May Be in Retreat, But Not for Millions in Africa | Opinion
Catherine Byaruhanga, BBC (August 21, 2021): Africa’s jihadists: What Taliban takeover of Afghanistan means
Devidiscourse (August 18, 2021): Malawi President Lazarus Chakwera elected as new SADC Chairperson
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (Proposed – twice delayed, from August 8 and August 29)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Delayed – no new date set)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: August 24, 2021
Last Updated: September 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 24, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Morocco has set legislative, provincial, and local elections for September 8, 2021. The elections are taking place in the context of discontentment and disillusionment. Although the current monarch, King Mohammed VI, has instituted a number of political reforms, he still plays a major role in governing, both through formal structures and informally. Following the 2011 constitutional reforms, the king must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats in parliament, but the king can still circumvent elected officials in various ways (including dissolving parliament or simply issuing decrees).
In the last elections, in 2016, the moderate Islamic democratic Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won the most seats. However, the king sought to sideline PJD as much as possible with ministerial appointments. More
AFP (August 26, 2021): Explainer: Why did Algeria cut diplomatic ties with Morocco?
ANSA (August 26, 2021): Election campaign starts in Morocco, 8/9 vote: Islamists facing greater challenge this time
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (announced – date not set)
Qatar has announced that it will hold its first-ever parliamentary elections (Shura Council elections) in October 2021. Qatar is an absolute monarchy in which the emir holds all political power. The only elections that the country has ever held have been for the Central Municipal Council, an advisory body with no real power. Political parties are not allowed. Moreover, the vast majority of people who live in Qatar are not citizens, and have no political rights. The Shura Council has existed since 1972, but has few real powers.
Some have criticized these elections as a cosmetic reform undertaken because of increased pressure because Qatar will be hosting the football World Cup in 2022. More
Jennifer Holleis, Kersten Knipp, and Emad Hassan, DW (August 24, 2021): Qatari elections: A PR stunt or a step toward democracy?
AP (August 22, 2021): Qatar to hold first-ever advisory Shura Council vote Oct 2
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021 (tentative) and Provincial Elections (due)
Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability.
The current political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls, including the Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians. As a result, the elections could be delayed. More
AFP (August 26, 2021): Women candidates in Iraq poll less than half 2018 level
UN Security Council (August 25, 2021): With elections nearing in Iraq, transparency, accountability key to gaining public trust, Assistance Mission Chief tells Security Council amid calls for reforms
Christian Science Monitor (August 25, 2021): Why Iraq is now a Mideast peace broker: Its reformist prime minister has built up enough trust to host a summit of Arab and Iranian leaders that might lift the region’s youth out of despair
Steven A. Cook, Council on Foreign Relations (August 23, 2021): Iraq Is the Middle East’s New Power Broker
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021 (tentative)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed indefinitely due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. More
Sami Zaptia, Libya Herald (August 25, 2021): Libya and U.S. discuss security plan for next elections: 35,000 security personnel prepared
Hatem Mohareb, Bloomberg (August 23, 2021): Libya Vote May Face Delay Unless Rules Set Soon, Official Says
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
AP (August 26, 2021): Lebanon judge issues subpoena for outgoing PM in port blast
Tom Perry and Laila Bassam, Reuters (August 24, 2021): Analysis: Leaderless Lebanon on slippery slope to mayhem
Joyce Karam, The National UAE (August 22, 2021): Lebanon’s Samir Geagea: Hezbollah showing cracks in face of unprecedented resentment
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Bahrain is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. Since a 2011 uprising, Bahrain has become increasingly authoritarian and repressive, especially vis a vis the Shi’ite opposition (Bahrain is more than half Shi’hite but ruled by a Sunni royal family). The opposition was barred from participating in the last elections in 2018. Moreover, the monarch has executive power as well as the power to appoint the prime minister and cabinet. Therefore, parliament is generally not very powerful.
Stephanie Kirchgaessner, The Guardian (August 24, 2021): Phones of nine Bahraini activists found to have been hacked with NSO spyware
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed indefinitely
The Palestinian Authority has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. More
Daoud Kuttab, Al-Monitor (August 19, 2021): Abbas turns to King Abdullah amid Palestinian succession crisis
Past Middle East Elections
Iran Presidential and Local Elections: June 18, 2021
Iran held its next presidential election on June 18, 2021, with concurrent local elections. While Iran is far from a free country, and the elections are largely rigged, voters have in the past had a degree of choice. However, this year’s election was even more rigged than usual. The Guardian Council (which must approve all candidacies) allowed seven candidates on the ballot and mostly excluded moderates and establishment figures, among them a number of prominent names. This seemed to be calculated to clear the way for hardline judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi to win, and he did in fact win.
Raisi’s win complicates things for the Biden administration, which is seeking to restore the nuclear deal that the Trump administration left. More
Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera (August 25, 2021): Iran’s parliament approves President Raisi’s conservative cabinet
Arsalan Shahla, Golnar Motevalli, and Patrick Sykes, Bloomberg (August 25, 2021): Iran Installs Government, Moving Closer to Resuming Atomic Talks
Nancy W. Gallagher, War on the Rocks (August 24, 2021): Iran’s New President, Public Opinion, and the Prospects for Negotiations
Israel Parliamentary Elections, Take 4: March 23, 2021
On March 23, 2021, Israel held its fourth general election in two years after the collapse of the unity government of Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. Neither Netanyahu’s allies nor his opponents won a majority. Netanyahu, whose conservative Likud party won the most seats, had the first chance to form a coalition, but he failed. Subsequently,Yair Lapid from the centrist Yesh Atid formed a broad coalition with conservative Naftali Bennett, with Bennett as prime minister for a time before rotating the position to Lapid. A number of other parties are in the coalition, which passed a Knesset vote on June 14, thus ending Netanyahu’s 12 years in office. More
Dov Lieber and Rory Jones, Wall Street Journal (August 25, 2021): Israel’s Bennett Seeks New Political Order. Netanyahu Stands in the Way
Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
In July 2021, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup.
Erin Clare Brown, The National UAE (August 25, 2021): ‘A parade of red flags’: what next for Tunisia after Kais Saied’s extension of power?
Sarah Anne Rennick, Arab Reform Initiative (August 24, 2021): Has Tunisia’s Democracy Failed to Convince its Youth? The Slow-Going of Democratic Socialization
Heba Saleh, Financial Times (August 24, 2021): Tunisia’s populist president extends suspension of parliament: Kais Saied tightens grip a month after seizing sweeping powers and dismissing government
Al Jazeera (August 21, 2021): Tunisia: Former anti-corruption chief placed under house arrest
Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.
Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the coutnry, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.
Ezzedine C. Fishere, Washington Post (August 23, 2021): Opinion: What the Taliban victory spells out for the Middle East
Regional Analysis
The Economist (August 24, 2021): Across the Arab world, Islamists’ brief stints in power have failed
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Morocco Legislative, Provincial, and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: September 2021 (due)
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2, 2021
Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Algeria Local Elections: November 2022 (due – earlier elections possible)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: August 23, 2021
Last Updated: September 1, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 23, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)
São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) is due to hold a presidential runoff, following the first round on July 18, 2021. The runoff was supposed to take place on August 8, but faced a delay because the candidate who placed third in the first round – and thus did not make the runoff – contested the results. However, a court ordered the runoff to go forward, but has been delayed to September 5.
The current president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, is not running for a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.
In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI will face off against former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy.
In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.
LUSA (August 23, 2021 – in Portuguese): Opposition blames the ruling party for the “serious” political crisis in São Tomé
Ethiopia Partial Elections: September 30, 2021
Ethiopia held general elections on June 21, 2021, after several postponements. These elections took place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, previously a reformer (he even won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019) but most recently an authoritarian, won in a landslide. Polling couldn’t happen in several areas due to the ongoing conflict, so make-up votes are due to take place this fall.
AFP (August 24, 2021): Ethiopia announces fresh delays to polls
Stratfor (August 24, 2021 – podcast): Essential Geopolitics: Ethiopia and Tigray Forces Battle On…Toward What?
Charles A. Ray, Foreign Policy Research Institute (August 18, 2021): Violence in Tigray Threatens Ethiopia’s Already Fragile Stability
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections in the preceding months) POSTPONED – no new date set
Somalia was supposed to hold an indirect presidential election on February 8, 2021, following indirect parliamentary elections in December 2020. However, the elections have been delayed, and the term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Mohamed Kahiye, Voice of America (August 23, 2021): Somali Opposition Leaders Reject New Election Roadmap
Amr Emam, Al-Monitor (August 21, 2021): Egypt pledges support to Somalia, eyeing Horn of Africa influence
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Vatican News (August 23, 2021): Nigerian Bishops call on Catholic politicians to make a difference to the nation’s politics
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Stephen L. Esquith, The Conversation (August 24, 2021): Mali’s roadmap for lasting peace has laudable goals: but it doesn’t go far enough
RFI (August 21, 2021): Ecowas demands justification for detention of Mali’s former interim leaders
AFP (August 18, 2021): Mali timeline: A year of turmoil
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kwame Otiende, Mail and Guardian (August 24, 2021): Kenya: How the ‘Chameleon’ Jomo Kenyatta did it
David Herbling, Bloomberg (August 20, 2021): Kenyan Court Backs Ruling Against Plan to Reshape Government
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays – the military has said it plans to rule the country for 18 months. More
Ruth Maclean and Mady Camara, New York Times (August 24, 2021): Hissène Habré, Ex-President of Chad Jailed for War Crimes, Dies at 79
AFP (August 21, 2021): Chad says will withdraw half its troops from G5 Sahel force
Editorial Board, Africa Times (August 24, 2021: National dialogue raises hopes for peace in Chad
Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)
The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.
The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
David Zounmenou, ISS Today (August 24, 2021): Limiting presidential eligibility could drive deep divides in the DRC
Sudan General Elections: 2024 (due)
Sudan plans to hold general elections in 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. However, numerous challenges remain.
Dabanga (August 20, 2021): Sudan TSC tells political parties to prepare for elections
Past Africa Elections
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Chris Changwe Nshimbi, The Conversation (August 22, 2021): Why Edgar Lungu and his party lost Zambia’s 2021 elections
Phillan Zamchiya, Daily Maverick (August 19, 2021): Zambia elections: Six lessons for African electoral democracy
The Economist (August 19, 2021): The task facing Zambia’s new president, Hakainde Hichilema
Lynsey Chutel, News24 (August 18, 2021): Hichilema’s win in Zambia inspires hope for southern Africa’s opposition leaders, says Maimane
Michelle Lewis, Electrek (August 18, 2021): Electric cars need cobalt and copper, and Zambia’s president-elect wants to supply it
Central African Republic Partial Legislative Elections and Runoffs: March 14, 2021
The Central African Republic (CAR) held presidential and partial legislative elections on December 27, 2020 in the midst of a worsening security situation. Rebels disrupted voting in some areas, so consequently, those constituencies held the first round of their legislative elections on March 14, 2021. In addition, some of the constituencies that did vote on December 27 held runoff elections for their legislators.
These elections took place in the context of a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Sectarian clashes have been taking place since 2013. Moreover, Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. More
Jack Losh, Foreign Policy (August 21, 2021): In Central Africa, Russia Won the War—but It’s Losing the Peace: Putin’s pursuit of influence, arms sales, and mercenary meddling in the Central African Republic has left Moscow mired in a quagmire
RFI (August 20, 2021): French wine giant Castel accused of funding rebels in CAR
Ronald Lwere Kato, Africanews (August 18, 2021): Central African Republic President’s rival flees after treason charges
Regional News and Analysis
Lazarus Chakwera, Newsweek (August 23, 2021): Democracy and Security May Be in Retreat, But Not for Millions in Africa | Opinion
Catherine Byaruhanga, BBC (August 21, 2021): Africa’s jihadists: What Taliban takeover of Afghanistan means
Devidiscourse (August 18, 2021): Malawi President Lazarus Chakwera elected as new SADC Chairperson
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (Proposed – twice delayed, from August 8 and August 29)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Delayed – no new date set)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: August 21, 2021
Last Updated: August 31, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 21, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Bahamas Snap General Elections: September 16, 2021
Bahamas will hold snap elections on September 16, eight months early. The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power.
Kendy, Nation News Bahamas (August 19, 2021): Bahamas PM announces September 16 General Election date
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Canada will hold snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who currently heads a minority government, is hoping to win a majority for his Liberals. However, many Canadians do not want elections at this time, making the decision a major gamble.
Robin V. Sears, Toronto Star (August 22, 2021): Afghanistan has been injected into another Canadian election — and will likely play a significant role in the outcome
Tyler Kustra, Washington Post (August 21, 2021): Canada’s prime minister called for early elections. Will this gamble pay off?
Holly Honderich, BBC (August 20, 2021): Canada election: How vaccine mandates became an issue
S. Ashleigh Weeden, The Conversation (August 19, 2021): Canadian election 2021: Why rural Canada must play a central role
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Jan-Albert Hootsen, America Magazine (August 19, 2021): Amid Ortega’s crackdown on opponents, is the Catholic Church in Nicaragua next?
Editorial Board, Washington Post (August 19, 2021): Opinion: In Nicaragua, night is falling for the free press
Al Jazeera (August 17, 2021): Nicaragua cancels permits for US, European NGOs: The move comes days after more Nicaraguan officials were sanctioned following arrests of opposition figures.
Christine Wade, Global Americas (August 17, 2021: The reasons behind Ortega and Murillo’s Nicaragua crackdown
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible)
Haiti plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises. The political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Jonathan M. Katz, Foreign Policy (August 18, 2021): Haiti’s Convenient Disaster: Last weekend’s earthquake was a catastrophe. But for the country’s political class, it came at exactly the right time
Henry (Chip) Carey, Washington Post (August 18, 2021): Haiti needs international help — even though past help has often made things worse
Michael Wilner, McClatchy (August 17, 2021): U.S. steps back from call for Haiti elections this year after quake, virus and assassination
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
James Grainger, Buenos Aires Times (August 21, 2021): Argentina looks back for the future (again) as primaries near
Harrison Mantas, Poynter (August 17, 2021): Reverso builds a culture of accountability ahead of Argentina’s midterm elections
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Matthew Malinowski, Bloomberg (August 21, 2021): Chile Senate Head Provoste Wins Center-Left Presidential Primary
Rio Times (August 20, 2021): Markets alert to political risk in the economies of Chile, Colombia, and Peru
Fitch Ratings (August 19, 2021): Politics Amplifies Fiscal Challenges in the Andean Region
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Elliott Abrams, The Hill (August 19, 2021): Biden might prefer you didn’t, but pay attention to the Venezuela negotiations
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras holds presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. These elections are taking place in the context of polarization and a crisis of legitimacy sparked in part by increasing authoritarianism. The 2017 elections were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud, and many believe that there is potential for fraud in the upcoming elections. More
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some are searching for a third candidate to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg (August 17, 2021): Bolsonaro’s Disapproval Reaches Record With Lula Gaining Ground
Reuters (August 17, 2021): Brazil govt weighs suing paper over article on election threats: defense minister
Past Americas Elections
Bolivia Local Elections: March 7 and April 11, 2021
Bolivia held regional and local elections on March 7, 2021, and some races, including four gubernatorial races, held runoffs on April 11.
These followed a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
Reuters (August 21, 2021): Former Bolivian President Anez harmed herself while in jail – lawyer
DW (August 20, 2021): Bolivia charges ex-president Anez with ‘genocide’: Former interim leader Jeanine Anez faces charges of committing “genocide” against supporters of Evo Morales and staging a coup in Bolivia.
Reuters (August 18, 2021): Bolivia’s Morales says he would be exonerated if new probes on ‘massacres’ opened
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Bahamas Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 16, 2021
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible following assassination of president and catastrophic earthquake)
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: August 20, 2021
Last Updated: August 31, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 20, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Japan, Yokohama Mayoral Election: August 22, 2021 and General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest in September. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Before that, Yokohama, Japan’s second-biggest city, holds a mayoral election on August 22. Incumbent Fumiko Hayashi is running for a fourth term.
Yokohama Election
Reuters (August 22, 2021): Exit polls show ally of Japan’s Suga losing Yokohama election, NHK says
General Elections
JIJI (August 20, 2021): Fumio Kishida set to face Suga again in LDP leadership vote: A year on from losing to Suga in the last LDP leadership race, faction leader to give it another try
Purnendra Jain and Takeshi Kobayashi, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (August 18, 2021): The double challenge for Suga
Eric Johnston, Japan Times (August 18, 2021): Former Prime Minister Abe bids for a new role: LDP kingmaker
Taro Kotegawa, Asahi Shimbun (August 16, 2021): Suga borrows from Abe’s playbook in war memorial speech
Australia Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021 and Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. In Australia’s last federal elections in May 2019, the conservative Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, won a surprise victory, even though polls had predicted that Labor would oust them. The Liberals are currently in their third term in government.
Meanwhile, several states hold various types of elections in 2021. Northern Territory is the next to vote, with local elections on August 28.
Northern Territory Local Elections
Alex Barwick, Eliza Goetze, and Saskia Mabin, ABC News Australia (August 19, 2021): Alice Springs Election 2021: Meet the candidates running for mayor
Federal Elections
Jonathan Barrett and Colin Packham, Reuters (August 19, 2021): Locked-up and fed-up: Australian voters put prime minister on notice
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
The Economist (August 21, 2021): Hong Kong’s government is crushing the city’s pro-democracy unions
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the two biggest parties, PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress Party.
Sanjay K. Jha, Telegraph India (August 21, 2021): Opposition leaders unite to prepare for 2024 general election
Kumar Shakti Shekhar, Times of India (August 20, 2021): How Taliban takeover of Afghanistan may help BJP in 2022 UP assembly election
Hindustan Times (August 19, 2021): Congress plans rejig with eye on state elections
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
William Kim, The National Interest (August 21, 2021): Nuclear Weapons in South Korea? Not So Fringe Anymore
Choe Sang-Hun, New York Times (August 20, 2021): South Koreans Now Dislike China More Than They Dislike Japan: There is growing anti-China sentiment in South Korea, particularly among young voters. Conservative politicians are eager to turn the antipathy into a presidential election issue.
Yonhap (August 16, 2021): Main opposition’s approval rating drops again amid rift between heavyweights
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
Philippines holds a presidential election on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Mong Palatino, The Diplomat (August 18, 2021): How Rodrigo Duterte Permanently Changed Philippine Elections
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Reuters (August 19, 2021): Last living Khmer Rouge leader says not behind Cambodia genocide
Al Jazeera (August 18, 2021): Cambodia jails union leader for two years for ‘incitement’
Ben Sokhean, Khmer Times (August 17, 2021): Parties explore possibility of uniting opposition before polls
Sopheng Cheang and David Rising, AP (August 16, 2021): Ex-Khmer Rouge official appeals genocide verdict in Cambodia
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
AFP (August 22, 2021): Malaysian Prime Minister sworn in as scandal-hit UMNO reclaims leadership
Yen Nee Lee, CBNC (August 20, 2021): Malaysia gets a new prime minister — the country’s third in 3 years
Zsombor Peter, Voice of America (August 20, 2021): Malaysia’s King Names New Prime Minister from Corruption-Mired Party
Daniel Victor, New York Times (August 16, 2021): Malaysia’s prime minister resigns over anger about his handling of the virus
Nepal General Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Kanak Manu Dixit, Nepali Times (August 18, 2021): Nepal and the Taliban’s second coming: Kathmandu and Kabul are far apart, but the two countries share some difficult history
Kamal Dev Bhattarai, The Diplomat (August 17, 2021): Can Nepal’s New Prime Minister Navigate Rough Political Seas?
Tika R Pradhan, Kathmandu Post (August 16, 2021): Maoist party fears becoming irrelevant, stresses reforms
Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2024 (due)
Indonesia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in April 2024. In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenger Prabowo Subianto for the presidency. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics. More
The Economist (August 21, 2021): Indonesia’s president promised reform. Yet it is he who has changed: Democracy is increasingly enfeebled under Jokowi
Tim Lindsey, The Conversation (August 20, 2021): Soeharto: the giant of modern Indonesia who left a legacy of violence and corruption
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
Zachary Abuza, War on the Rocks (August 20, 2021 – book review): Authoritarianism and resistance in Myanmar
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 30, 2018
Bangladesh held general elections to the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) in December 2018 amid political violence and harassment of the opposition. The Awami League (AL) has been in power since 2009 and is becoming increasingly authoritarian. More
The Economist (August 19, 2021): Critics of Bangladesh’s government are liable to vanish
Human Rights Watch (August 16, 2021): Bangladesh: 86 Victims of Enforced Disappearance Still Missing
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Japan, Mayoral Election in Yokohama: August 22, 2021
Australia, Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: August 19, 2021
Last Updated: August 29, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 19, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia holds parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates. More
Jan Matti Dollbaum, Morvan Lallouet and Ben Noble, Washington Post (August 20, 2021): Alexei Navalny was poisoned one year ago. His fate tells us a lot about Putin’s Russia.
Tom Balmforth and Anton Zverev, Reuters (August 19, 2021): Jailed Kremlin critic Navalny tells Russians to sabotage upcoming elections
Samantha Berkhead, Times of London (August 19, 2021): Kremlin attacks last election monitor Golos before key test for Putin at polls
Reuters (August 18, 2021): Russia labels Golos vote movement as foreign agent, month before election
Meduza (August 18, 2021): Communist Party calls on elections officials to reject Maria Butina’s candidacy due to foreign funding
Tony Barber, Financial Times (August 18, 2021): Russia’s elections are an exercise in repression and empty ritual: A crackdown on dissent makes next month’s parliamentary contest the least free of Vladimir Putin’s 21-year rule
Regina Smyth, The Conversation (August 16, 2021): Vladimir Putin plans to win Russia’s parliamentary election no matter how unpopular his party is
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Georgia has scheduled local elections for October 2, 2021, and they are particularly important because – as a result of a deal to resolve the political crisis following last year’s parliamentary elections – they could spark new parliamentary elections if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins less than 43 percent of the proportional vote. However, the ruling Georgian Dream scrapped the agreement in July, raising concerns about Georgia’s political stability. The political climate is tense, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout.
Most recently, an uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
Ian Kelly and David J. Kramer, Foreign Policy (August 20, 2021): Georgia Turns Its Back on the West: The ruling Georgian Dream party is taking Tbilisi into Moscow’s orbit while eroding democratic institutions.
JAMnews (August 20, 2021): NDI survey: 51% believe there is no democracy in Georgia
Beka Chedia, Jamestown Foundation (August 17, 2021): Russian Interference in Georgian Politics: The Activation of Ultra-Right Forces
Civil.ge (August 17, 2021): Four Opposition Parties Name Joint Tbilisi Majoritarian Candidates
Archil Sikharulidze, New Eastern Europe (August 16, 2021): Georgia’s argument over ‘Michel’ is finished, at least for now
Civil.ge (August 16, 2021): Georgian Authorities Urged to Cancel Belarus KGB Dealk
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
Uzbekistan is holding a presidential election on October 24, 2021. Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate freely in the country. Although some had hoped that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev would face a serious challenger this year, that looks increasingly unlikely as would-be challengers are either being denied ballot access or dropping out. More
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Kyrgyzstan’s leader has proposed re-running the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Past Eurasia Elections
Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021
Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin.
Pashinyan became prime minister following the 2018 pro-democracy “Velvet Revolution.” However, he mostly maintained Armenia’s pro-Russia geopolitical stance, and that does not look likely to change in the near future.
Hurriyet (August 19, 2021): Armenia ready to normalize ties with Turkey, says Pashinyan
Ani Mejlumyan, Eurasianet (August 19, 2021): Armenia at last appoints new foreign minister
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. More
Ivan Nechepurenko and Valerie Hopkins, New York Times (August 20, 2021): ‘Our Goal Is to Keep the Regime on Its Toes’: Inside Belarus’s Underground Opposition: Despite a government campaign of terror and arbitrary arrests, thousands of activists are working clandestinely to spread dissent and undermine the government.
Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation (August 16, 2021): Summing Up: One Year Since the Disputed Presidential Elections in Belarus
Meduza (August 16, 2021): ‘Now there’s no fear — just sadness’: A year after Belarus’s presidential election, five protesters tell Meduza how their lives have changed as Lukashenko has tightened his grip on power
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Russia Parliamentary Elections: September 17-19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
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