Elections in the Central African Republic are taking place in the context of a political and humanitarian crisis. Refugees shelter under tarps as they seek to rebuild their home in Bangui, the capital, in 2017. Photo credit: VOA/Z. Baddorf (public domain)

The Central African Republic (CAR) held presidential and partial legislative elections on December 27, 2020. Voting was disrupted in some areas, so consequently, those constituencies will hold the first round of their legislative elections on March 14, 2021. In addition, some of the constituencies that did vote on December 27 will hold runoff elections for their legislators.

Meanwhile, local elections – which have not taken place in the Central African Republic since 1988 – have been proposed for September 2022, although it is far from clear whether they will actually take place.

Political Context

Civil War and Ongoing Sectarian Clashes

The Central African Republic is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has had multiparty elections since 1993, but a series of coups and instability have prevented democracy from flourishing.

Sectarian clashes have been taking place since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé (who himself had seized power in a 2003 coup) from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Because CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. Therefore, having a Muslim president caused some controversy. In response, southern Christian militias called “anti-Balaka” (“invincible” in Sango) clashed with the government and attacked civilians.

Following the collapse of Djotodia’s presidency less than a year after it began, a UN-backed transitional government under Catherine Samba-Panza subsequently took over until the 2015-2016 presidential election. After a first round with 30 candidates, former prime minister and mathematics professor Faustin-Archange Touadéra (sometimes called FAT) won runoff against another former prime minister, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé.

Dologuélé conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. The African Union judged the election to be generally successful despite irregularities and allegations of fraud. On the other hand, the concurrent legislative elections were annulled and subsequently re-run in early 2016 due to fraud.

Constant Threat of Violence

A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. In the same vein, the government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital. Consequently, violence could break out again around the elections. Moreover, civilians continue to face attacks from various armed groups.

The 2020 Elections in Central African Republic: Political and Humanitarian Crises Escalate

Political parties in Central African Republic are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly members are independents and the parties that do function tend to be vehicles for specific politicians rather than ideologies. Opposition party activists – and journalists who write about them – face intimidation.

Touadéra ran for re-election, facing a total of 21 challengers. He won in the first round, with 53.9 percent of the vote. Former prime minister Dologuélé, who launched and now heads new coalition of opposition parties called Coalition de l’Opposition Démocratique 2020 (COD-2020), placed second, with 21 percent of the vote.

Former President Bozizé Disqualified – Joins Rebel Alliance As Violence Rises

However, ahead of the elections, the country’s constitutional court disqualified former president Bozizé from running. Bozizé had returned to the country in December 2019 after six years abroad, but he faces an international arrest warrant for crimes against humanity in addition to UN Security Council sanctions due to his support of anti-Balaka attacks. As a result of Bozizé’s disqualification, tensions shot up. Bozizé joined the rebel alliance Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), which ironically includes some of the Séléka groups that ousted him from office in 2013. CPC subsequently seized towns around Bangui, which led to numerous civilian deaths and exacerbated the ongoing refugee crisis.

Although Bozizé sought to force an election delay, the polls did take place on December 27 in some areas. However, turnout was only 35 percent. Consequently, the opposition urged a re-run. However, courts upheld the results. Tensions have continued to escalate since the polls, and the country is currently in a state of emergency.

Geopolitical Context

Following Touadéra’s ascent to the presidency, France withdrew its peacekeeping force, which had been in the country since 2013. As a result, Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A former Russian intelligence officer is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.

Samuel Ramani, in a piece for RUSI, notes: “As the CAR civil war passes its eighth anniversary, Russia has emerged as the leading external military and diplomatic stakeholder in the country. Since Touadéra’s short-term position is secure, Russia will seek to counter French power projection displays, such as its 24 December flyover mission, and work with the African Union on a more comprehensive peace settlement. With the international community focused on other challenges – such as extremism in the Sahel, Al-Shabaab’s resurgence in Somalia and the Libyan civil war – Russia’s hegemony in CAR could quietly consolidate in 2021.”

These arrangements have drawn criticism from opposition figures such as former National Assembly president Karim Meckassoua and groups such as É Zingo Biani – a coalition of opposition politicians and civil society activists.

Curated News and Analysis

AFP (October 31, 2021): Central African opposition parties reject national dialogue plans

Le Monde with AFP (October 19, 2021 – in French): Central African Republic: UN warns against postponement of local elections

Al Jazeera (June 11, 2021): Henri Marie Dondra named Central African Republic prime minister

Al Jazeera (June 10, 2021): CAR Prime Minister Firmin Ngrebada and cabinet resign: The entire cabinet steps down in the latest political crisis to hit the country, but the president’s spokesman says the PM could be asked to lead the new administration.

Reuters (June 9, 2021): France suspends aid, military support for Central African Republic

Jean Fernand Koena, AP (March 30, 2021): Embattled Central African Republic president begins 2nd term

Al Jazeera (March 21, 2021): CAR ex-President François Bozizé takes charge of rebel alliance

Antoine Rolland and Judicael Yongo, Reuters (March 15, 2021): Central African Republic votes amid tight security after December violence

Mathieu Olivier, Jeune Afrique (March 14, 2021 – in French): Russia-CAR: Who are Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s Russian guardian angels?

Neil Edwards, Council on Foreign Relations (March 10, 2021): Coup-Proofing: Russia’s Military Blueprint to Securing Resources in Africa

Peter Fabricius, Daily Maverick (February 28, 2021): Central African Republic democracy and justice channels tested amid violent chaos 

Adrienne Suprenant, AP (February 28, 2021): Thousands flee rebel violence in Central African Republic

Reuters (February 24, 2021): Central African Republic retakes rebel stronghold in north

Tigranna Zakaryan, African Arguments (February 23, 2021): Russia in the Central African Republic: New allies, same challenges

BBC (February 16, 2021): Central African Republic: War crimes trial of two ex-militia leaders starts

Al Jazeera (February 13, 2021): CAR to hold runoff parliamentary elections in March

Samuel Ramani, RUSI (February 12, 2021): Russia’s Strategy in the Central African Republic

Human Rights Watch (February 7, 2021): Central African Republic: First Anti-Balaka Trial at ICC: Milestone for Justice for Victims of Conflict Since 2012

John A. Lechner and Alexandra Lamarche, Foreign Policy (January 22, 2021): Outside Powers Are Making the Conflict in the Central African Republic Worse

Jack Losh, Al Jazeera (January 19, 2020): In war-weary CAR, humanitarian crisis deepens amid fresh violence

Jean Fernand Koena, AP (January 4, 2021): Central African Republic president Touadera reelected

France24/Reuters (December 3, 2020): Central African Republic court rejects ex-president Bozizé’s election candidacy

Michèle Joseph, Voice of America (November 12, 2020 – in French): December presidential election in CAR: Touadéra facing 21 candidates

Rodrigue Forku, Andalou Agency (November 13, 2020): UN extends Central African Republic mission for 1 year

Corbeau News (November 7, 2020 – in French): RCA: presidential election of December 27, Catherine Samba-Panza, twelve candidates registered with the Election Authority

RFI (November 9, 2020 – in French): Elections in the Central African Republic: “I will not be a candidate” declares Michel Djotodia

Charlotte Cosset, RFI (November 8, 2020 – in French): Legislative elections in the Central African Republic: for women candidates, an obstacle course

Freeman Sipila, VOA (October 12, 2020 – in French): Legislative elections in the Central African Republic: concerns persist on the security plan

John-Paul Holden, The Herald Scotland (October 6, 2020): Scottish businessman bids to become president of the Central African Republic

AFP (September 18, 2020 – in French): Uncertainties about the presidential election at the end of December in the Central African Republic