August 13, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A building in Nepal’s Durbar Square. Nepal could be moving away from China and closer to India. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Alexey Komarov (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Australia Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021 and Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. In Australia’s last federal elections in May 2019, the conservative Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, won a surprise victory, even though polls had predicted that Labor would oust them. The Liberals are currently in their third term in government.
Meanwhile, several states hold various types of elections in 2021. Northern Territory is the next to vote, with local elections on August 28.
Byron Kaye and Jill Gralow, Reuters (August 10, 2021): ‘We are not the virus’: Two-tier Delta lockdowns divide Sydney
Alice Taylor, Exit Albania (August 10, 2021): Western Balkan Troll Networks Targeted Australia’s 2019 Federal Elections
Japan, Yokohama Mayoral Election: August 29, 2021 and General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest in September. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Before that, Yokohama, Japan’s second-biggest city, holds a mayoral election on August 29. Incumbent Fumiko Hayashi is running for a fourth term.
Yokohama
Devin O’Connor, Casino.org (August 10, 2021): Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga Backs Yokohama Anti-Casino Candidate: Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has narrowed down his pick of the eight candidates running for mayor of Yokohama. And to some surprise, Suga isn’t backing the incumbent who shares his party affiliation.
Sintaro Kamimura, Inside Asian Gaming (August 9, 2021): Record eight candidates confirmed to run in Yokohama mayoral election
Casino takes top billing, but Yokohama mayoral election may offer hints to Suga’s fate
Tetsuya Saito, Nikkei Asia (August 7, 2021): Yokohama election tests Japan’s casino push amid COVID headwind: Fierce mayoral race pits incumbent against raft of candidates opposing resort
General Elections
Walter Sim, Straits Times (August 14, 2021): Can embattled Japan PM Suga break the post-Olympics jinx?
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Selina Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press (August 14, 2021): Analysis: How almost everyone running for Hong Kong’s new election committee will get a seat automatically
Eric Lam and Kari Soo Lindberg, Bloomberg (August 12, 2021): Hong Kong’s Population Shrinks By 89,000 in Just 12 Months
Jeffie Lam, South China Morning Post (August 10, 2021): Bitter internal row brewing within Hong Kong’s Democratic Party over whether to contest Legislative Council elections
Vivian Wang and Joy Dong, New York Times (August 8, 2021): How an Obscure Swim Club Got a Say in Choosing Hong Kong’s Leader
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Taiwan, a robust democracy, is due to hold a referendum on December 18 with four questions (on algae reef protection, lifting restrictions on pork imports from the U.S., the activation of a nuclear plant, and referendum dates).
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Jiangli Yang, Newsweek (August 13, 2021): Taiwanese Identity Grows Stronger as China Seeks Reunification
Timothy S. Rich, Madelynn Einhorn, and Isabel Eliassen, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (August 13, 2021): Taiwan: The age-old question of who gets a vote
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Korea Times (August 11, 2021): Main opposition party sees sharp membership increase in run-up to presidential election
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
Philippines holds a presidential election on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Raissa Robles, South China Morning Post (August 14, 2021): Duterte said China pledged billions of dollars to the Philippines. What happened to it?
Michael Beltran, The Diplomat (August 13, 2021): Duterte Vs the International Criminal Court
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Tomoya Onishi, Nikkei Asia (August 13, 2021): Cambodia drawn ever closer to China a year after EU sanctions
Radio Free Asia (August 10, 2021): Families of Jailed Cambodian Activists Call on Government to Drop Incitement Charges
Papua New Guinea General Elections: June/July 2022 (due)
Papua New Guinea is due to hold general elections in June or July 2022.
Johnny Blades, Radio New Zealand (August 13, 2021): PNG considers major electoral changes before 2022 polls
Nepal General Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Seong Hyeon Choi, Eurasia Review (August 13, 2021): The BRI In Nepal: China’s Outreach To The Himalayas – Analysis
The Sentinel Assam (August 13, 2021): Nepal’s Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba puts India ahead of China
Thailand, Bangkok Local Elections and Referendum: TBD
Thai officials have said they will schedule elections soon for various types of local elections (such as Bangkok city council) and potentially a constitutional referendum. These follow provincial elections that took place in December 2020 and municipal elections in March 2021.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
Al Jazeera (August 14, 2021): Thai protesters clash with police at anti-PM rally in Bangkok
Ryan Ashley and Moez Hayat, The Diplomat (August 12, 2021): Making the ‘Network Monarchy’ Work in Thailand’s Deep South: A deeper view of Thailand’s southern insurgency reveals more about the nature of a nation facing new challenges from a vocal, youthful generation.
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
Norman Goh and Bhavan Jaipragas, South China Morning Post (August 13, 2021): Malaysia’s political crisis: opposition accuse embattled PM Muhyiddin of ‘corruption’ after offer of sweeping concessions, promise of poll by July 2022
Reuters (August 13, 2021): Malaysia’s opposition, key ally reject PM’s offer for bipartisan support
Eileen Ng, AP (August 13, 2021): Malaysian leader seeks opposition backing to stay in power
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
On May 7, a bomb blast hospitalized former president Mohamed Nasheed, one of the main architects of democracy in Maldives. The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. More
Anand Kumar, IDSA (August 13, 2021): Implications of Political Dissonance in the Maldives
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
David I. Steinberg, The Irrawaddy (August 14, 2021: Myanmar Junta’s Caretaker Government on Course to Fail
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (August 13, 2021): Myanmar’s Former Military Dictator Hospitalized Due to COVID-19: Than Shwe’s illness is paralleled by the collapse of the crafted system of semi-democracy that he engineered.
Robin Gomes, Vatican News (August 8, 2021): Myanmar protesters mark 1988 uprising
Regional Analysis
The Economist (August 14, 2021): Democracy is decaying in a growing number of Asian polities: Elected autocrats are undermining checks and balances
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Australia, Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021
Japan, Mayoral Election in Yokohama: August 29, 2021
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: August 18, 2021
Last Updated: August 29, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 18, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 and Local Elections: October 17, 2021
Estonia – a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy – will hold an indirect presidential election starting on August 30 and local elections on October 17, 2021. In Estonia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial and representative role, with no executive power. The Riigikogu (parliament) elects the president.
Incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid is eligible to run for another term, and has been campaigning to be re-elected, although she will likely face opponents. Candidates register just a few days before the election, and new candidates can enter the race after the first round of voting, creating a high degree of uncertainty. Moreover, if parliament fails to elect a president – which requires a two-thirds majority – the process moves to an electoral college consisting of members of parliament and local government representatives (this happened in 2016).
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. More
Andreas Ventsel, ERR News (August 18, 2021): What exactly is the president’s symbolic power?
ERR News (August 15, 2021): Parties agree presidential election system needs changes
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. More
Richard Milne, Financial Times (August 18, 2021): Norway’s oil fund propelled to 9% return by strong equity performance: Energy was best-performing sector in second quarter for world’s largest sovereign fund
Ole Ketil Helgesen, Upstream Online (August 18, 2021): Norway’s likely next government aims to stop exploration in new areas – The likely new coalition government has been in compromise discussions for months, sources told Upstream
NewsInEnglish.no (August 18, 2021): Conflicts plague both the right and left
Lars Erik Taraldsen, Bloomberg (August 11, 2021): Norway Parties Brace for Oil Showdown as UN Report Fuels Debate
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Iceland holds elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government is a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party. More
Valur Grettisson, Reykjavik Grapevine (August 13, 2021): Early Voting For Parliamentary Elections Has Begun
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens have taken SPD’s place as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world. However, despite his unpopularity, Armin Laschet remains the favorite to succeed Merkel as chancellor. Nonetheless, German voters have a real choice and Baerbock, who comes from the party’s “realo” (moderate) wing as opposed to the “fundi” (radical) wing – has an actual shot at the top job. More
Reuters (August 18, 2021): German SPD overtakes Greens, close in on conservatives before election
William Noah Glucroft, DW (August 17, 2021): German politicians fret about refugees from Afghanistan
Marcus Colla, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (August 16, 2021): Germany’s federal election:
choose any colour you like – The looming headache of Germany’s coalition arrangements will play out again this September.
Laurenz Gehrke, Politico (August 16, 2021): Bavaria’s Söder rules out replacing Laschet as German conservatives’ lead candidate: Polls show the Bavarian leader is still more popular than Armin Laschet, but Markus Söder says ‘the ballots are printed, the posters are pasted, it’s been decided.’
Arne Delfs, Bloomberg (August 14, 2021): Merkel’s Faltering Heir Upends Germany’s Election Predictability: Armin Laschet’s campaign is struggling and that’s turning the race for chancellor into a toss-up.
The Economist (August 14, 2021): German voters deserve a more serious election campaign
Italy, Mayoral Elections in Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and other cities and regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Italy is due to hold regional elections in Calabria in the south, as well as mayoral elections in several major cities, later this year. The next general elections aren’t due until June 2023, but as is ever the case with Italy, snap elections are possible. However, in January 2021, the government collapsed after former prime minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his support. Former European Central Bank chief Mario “Super Mario” Draghi formed a government in February 2021.
Dario Cristiani, World Politics Review (August 18, 2021): Can Italy’s Draghi Keep Up His Winning Streak?
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic has scheduled parliamentary elections for October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. More
Tim Gosling, Balkan Insight (August 18, 2021): Czech Pirates under attack
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Kosovo is due to hold local elections in 2021. These follow snap parliamentary elections that took place in February 2021. In those elections, Kosovo held on February 14. The left-wing nationalist Vetëvendosje won, potentially jeopardizing any resolution to a long-standing territorial dispute with Serbia. However, the new prime minister, Albin Kurti has also advocated for closer ties with the United States and Europe.
Perparim Isufi, Balkan Insight (August 13, 2021): Kosovo Parties Ponder Joint Mayoral Candidates in Serb-Majority Areas
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Virginie Martin, The Conversation (August 17, 2021): The south of France is a Marine Le Pen stronghold – but has she hit a ceiling?
Kim Willsher, The Guardian (August 17, 2021): Macron accused of pandering to far right over Afghan crisis
The Economist (August 12, 2021): Why so many French people fear dictatorship and civil war
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: By April 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Caroline Vakil, The Hill (August 18, 2021): Serbian president dares Twitter to delete his account
Sasa Dragojlo, Balkan Insight (August 18, 2021): Think Tank Defends Serbia Hosting Secret Afghan Govt-Taliban Talks
Poland Parliamentary Elections: Fall 2023 (snap elections possible)
Poland is due to hold parliamentary elections in fall 2023, but snap elections are possible if the three-party government headed by the conservative Law and Justice does not hold together.
In August, the coalition lost its majority after one of the small coalition partners withdrew. However, the government will remain in power unless it loses a confidence vote (which would require two-thirds of parliament).
AFP (August 17, 2021): Ex-coalition partner hits out at ‘fanatical’ Polish leader
Therese Raphael, Bloomberg (August 16, 2021): Why Poland Is Getting on the Nerves of the U.S. and the EU
James Shotter, Financial Times (August 15, 2021): Poland’s weakened coalition raises prospect of early election
Bernard Osser, AFP (August 14, 2021): Poland’s ruling populists risk isolation in bid to stay in power
AFP (August 12, 2021): Punk rocker emerges as Poland’s improbable powerbroker
Silvia Amaro, Reuters (August 12, 2021): Poland pushes through new media law and angers the U.S.
Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Bulgaria held fresh parliamentary elections on July 11 after no party formed a government following the April 4 elections. In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority.
New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and there’s a strong chance of a third election, possibly around the time of the presidential election that is due this fall. More
RFE/RL (August 17, 2021): Surveillance Video Puts Bulgarian Police Brutality During Anti-Government Protests In Focus
Boryana Dzhambazova, Politico (August 13, 2021): How chat show host Trifonov lost Bulgaria’s election: The TV star failed to convince his critics his party presents a clean break from cronyism and corruption.
AP (August 12, 2021): Bulgaria slides into political crisis as new election looms
Valentina Dimitrievska, bne IntelliNews (August 12, 2021): Bulgaria’s inability to form government sends discouraging signals for North Macedonia’s EU path
Lithuania Parliamentary Elections: October 11, 2020 and October 25, 2020
Lithuania held parliamentary elections in October 2020. A center-right coalition led by Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS–LKD) defeated the incumbent populist Farmers and Greens. Following the elections, a coalition of four parties – all led by women – formed a government, with Ingrida Šimonytė as the country’s first female prime minister.
Under the present government, Lithuania has become increasingly vocal on matters related to China’s human rights record, leading other European countries to re-assess their relations with Beijing.
Reid Standish, RFE/RL (August 17, 2021): Beijing’s Spat With Lithuania Sets The Stage For Shaky New Era of Europe-China Ties
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 (by parliament)
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: October/November 2021 (due)
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: August 17, 2021
Last Updated: December 3, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 17, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Morocco has set legislative, provincial, and local elections for September 8, 2021. The elections are taking place in the context of discontentment and disillusionment. Although the current monarch, King Mohammed VI, has instituted a number of political reforms, he still plays a major role in governing, both through formal structures and informally. Following the 2011 constitutional reforms, the king must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats in parliament, but the king can still circumvent elected officials in various ways (including dissolving parliament or simply issuing decrees).
In the last elections, in 2016, the moderate Islamic democratic Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won the most seats. However, the king sought to sideline PJD as much as possible with ministerial appointments. More
Safaa Kasraoui, Morocco World News (August 15, 2021): Morocco Calls on Imams, Preachers To Remain Neutral During Elections
Barak Ravid, Axios (August 12, 2021): Israel and Morocco agree to full diplomatic normalization
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021 (tentative) and Provincial Elections (due)
Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability.
The current political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls, including the Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians. As a result, the elections could be delayed. More
Neville Teller, Jerusalem Post (August 17, 2021): Iraq is in turmoil as parliamentary elections near – opinion
Florian Neuhof, Daily Beast (August 12, 2021): Serial Murder of Young Progressives Plagues This Looming Election
The New Arab (August 12, 2021): Iraqi government to continue campaign to keep streets tidy started by assassinated mayor
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (announced – date not set)
Qatar has announced that it will hold its first-ever parliamentary elections (Shura Council elections) in October 2021. Qatar is an absolute monarchy in which the emir holds all political power. The only elections that the country has ever held have been for the Central Municipal Council, an advisory body with no real power. Political parties are not allowed. Moreover, the vast majority of people who live in Qatar are not citizens, and have no political rights. The Shura Council has existed since 1972, but has few real powers.
Some have criticized these elections as a cosmetic reform undertaken because of increased pressure because Qatar will be hosting the football World Cup in 2022. More
Farah AlSharif, Doha News (August 16, 2021): Sheikh Khalifa meets tribal elders as election law protests subside
Reuters (August 12, 2021): Qatar’s new electoral law stirs up tribal sensitivities
Al Bawaba (August 10, 2021): Protests in Doha: The Qatari Citizenship Is Not Enough for Voting
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021 (tentative)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed indefinitely due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. More
Mohamed Saied, Al-Monitor (August 17, 2021): Egypt weighs Hifter’s role in Libyan transition: Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Hifter visited Cairo and met with the US ambassador to Libya at a time of heightened tensions between Hifter and the new Libyan government of national unity.
AFP (August 13, 2021): Libya delegates fail to reach agreement for December elections
Henry Meyer and Mirette Magdy, Bloomberg (August 12, 2021): Putin’s Qaddafi Comeback Gambit Sows New Conflict With the West: A fragile peace in Libya is at risk as foreign powers jostle over election candidates.
Samy Magdy, AP (August 11, 2021): US envoy meets Libyan commander to push for elections
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
Dale Gavlak, Voice of America (August 17, 2021: Lebanon Government Formation Appears on Hold, Despite Earlier Optimism
Thaer Ghandour, The National Interest (August 17, 2021): The Lebanese Army Can’t Avert Lebanon’s Crisis
Tom Perry and Nafisa Eltahir, Reuters (August 16, 2021): President hopes for Lebanon government in days as crisis bites deeper
Past Middle East Elections
Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir Elections: July 25, 2021
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), part of the Pakistan-administered portion of the disputed region of Kashmir, held elections on July 25, 2021. These follow elections in Gilgit-Baltistan, the other part of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The elections were originally due by April 2, 2021, but have been delayed.
The region is a geopolitical hotspot. Tensions with India (India and Pakistan have fought three wars, including two over Kashmir) are growing and both sides are upping their military presence. Moreover, the area is a centerpiece of China’s Belt and Road, which further inflames Pakistan’s relations with India and generally complicates the geopolitics of the region.
Dawn (August 17, 2021): PTI’s Barrister Sultan Mahmood elected AJK president
Iran Presidential and Local Elections: June 18, 2021
Iran held its next presidential election on June 18, 2021, with concurrent local elections. While Iran is far from a free country, and the elections are largely rigged, voters have in the past had a degree of choice. However, this year’s election was even more rigged than usual. The Guardian Council (which must approve all candidacies) allowed seven candidates on the ballot and mostly excluded moderates and establishment figures, among them a number of prominent names. This seemed to be calculated to clear the way for hardline judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi to win, and he did in fact win.
Raisi’s win complicates things for the Biden administration, which is seeking to restore the nuclear deal that the Trump administration left. More
The New Arab (August 11, 2021): Who is Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Raisi’s Arabic-speaking pick for foreign minister?
Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
In July 2021, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup.
Tarek Amara and Angus Mcdowall, Reuters (August 17, 2021): Now in charge, Tunisian president faces looming fiscal crisis
Lisa Bryant, Voice of America (August 14, 2021): Tunisia’s Saied Is in Charge, but for How Long?
Al Jazeera (August 14, 2021): US calls on Tunisia’s Saied to appoint PM, restore democracy
Egypt Parliamentary Elections: October-December 2020
Egypt held elections for both houses of parliament this year. They were widely considered a sham by the opposition, civil society, and the public. More
Scott Williamson, Project on Middle East Democracy (August 17, 2021): Report – Popular Politics in Egypt: From the 2011 Revolution to al-Sisi’s Authoritarian Revival
Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 20219
Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.
Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the coutnry, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.
Ivana Saric, Axios (August 17, 2021): Female mayor in Afghanistan says she is waiting for Taliban to come and kill her
Matthew Rosenberg and Adam Nossiter, New York Times (August 16, 2021): After 7 Years of Failing to Fix Afghanistan, Ghani Makes a Hasty Escape
Ali M Latifi, Al Jazeera (August 15, 2021): ‘Unpatriotic’: Afghans slam President Ghani’s swift departure: President Ashraf Ghani fled the country as the Taliban entered the capital Kabul after capturing major cities within a week.
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Morocco Legislative, Provincial, and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: September 2021 (due)
Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (proposed)
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Algeria Local Elections: November 2022 (due – earlier elections possible)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: August 16, 2021
Last Updated: August 26, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 16, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections in the preceding months) POSTPONED – no new date set
Somalia was supposed to hold an indirect presidential election on February 8, 2021, following indirect parliamentary elections in December 2020. However, the elections have been delayed, and the term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believed that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Margaret Besheer, Voice of America (August 12, 2021): UN, AU Urge Somalia to Hold Elections Without Further Delay
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
Cabo Verde, a stable democracy with regular elections and peaceful transfers of power, holds a presdiential election on October 17, 2021, following parliamentary elections that took place on April 18, 2021. The incumbent center-right MpD won, defeating the socialist PAICV (which had run Cabo Verde as a one-party state until 1990, but MpD won a historic victory in 2016).
Cabo Verde’s strategic location in the Atlantic has made it the site of increasing geopolitical competition between the U.S., NATO, and the EU on one hand and China on the other. While PAICV advocates strong links with Beijing, and has a party-to-party relationship with the Chinese Communist Party, current PM Ulisses Correia e Silva from MpD advocates stronger links with NATO and the West. More
Alexsyane Silva and Giovana Fleck, Global Voices (August 10, 2021): Cape Verde: Presidential elections scheduled for October
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More
Dirk Kotze, Moneyweb (August 11, 2021): To postpone, or not to postpone? Local elections hang in the balance
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Ayokunu Adedokun, The Conversation (August 11, 2021): Book review: Nigeria has democracy but not development. How to fix it
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
Albano Agostinho Troco, The Conversation (August 11, 2021): Angola’s Constitution is under review: but a great deal has been left undone
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, who seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays – the military has said it plans to rule the country for 18 months. More
Reuters (August 11, 2021): Chad invites armed groups to participate in national dialogue
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is an absolute monarchy. The country does hold parliamentary elections, but the parliament does not actually have much power, and the elections are tightly controlled, without much choice for voters. In late June, a series of pro-democracy protests began, and they continue to date.
Al Jazeera (August 16, 2021 – podcast): A first-hand account of police brutality in Eswatini
Carien du Plessis, The Diplomat (August 10, 2021): Eswatini, Taiwan’s Last Partner in Africa: The relationship hinges on proudly democratic Taiwan befriending an absolute monarch. Will pro-democracy protests spell the end of King Mswati’s rule – and relations with Taipei?
Past Africa Elections
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat.
On the parliamentary front, results are still being tabulated. Prior to these elections, Lungu’s social democratic Patriotic Front held 89 of the 156 seats, while Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) held 58, with the rest held by smaller parties and independents. More
Chris Mfula, Reuters (August 16, 2021): Zambian president Lungu concedes defeat after rival’s landslide win
Nicholas Bariyo, Wall Street Journal (August 16, 2021): Zambia’s Opposition Wins Surprise Landslide as Defaulting Economy Reels: Hakainde Hichilema is declared victor after campaign that observers say was skewed in President Edgar Lungu’s favor
Carien du Plessis, Daily Maverick (August 16, 2021): Hakainde Hichilema promises change and opportunities following his election as president after sixth attempt
Peter Clottey, Voice of America (August 12, 2021): Heavy Voter Turnout Reported for Zambia Presidential Election
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Somaliland held its long-overdue parliamentary and local elections on May 31, 2021. The two main opposition parties, Waddani and UCID, together won more seats in parliament than the governing Kulmiye party. Waddani and UCID will team up to choose a parliament speaker and on local councils (where they also won). Somaliland is a presidential system, so there’s no PM. President Muse Bihi Abdi from Kulmiye remains head of state. But it is significant for democracy that the opposition won the “midterms.”
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections. More
Robert C. O’Brien, National Interest (August 13, 2021): China’s Worldwide Expansion Plan Stops in Somaliland
International Crisis Group (August 12, 2021): Building on Somaliland’s Successful Elections
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional Elections: February 9, 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Cameroon holds elections, but President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, has been in power since 1982, most recently winning re-election in 2018. Elections in the country, including the most recent, have been marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.
Cameroon is in the midst of several other crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Geoffrey York and Ndi Eugene Ndi, Globe and Mail (August 12, 2021): Arrest of influential tech entrepreneur Rebecca Enonchong in Cameroon sparks global criticism
Regional Analysis
Jie Xi, Voice of America (August 14, 2021): Analysts: China Expanding Influence in Africa Via Telecom Network Deals
Ryan Lenora Brown, Christian Science Monitor (August 11, 2021): How COVID-19 restrictions on rallies are roiling elections in Africa
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: August 29, 2021 (Proposed – delayed from August 8)
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021 (Delayed – no new date set)
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: August 14, 2021
Last Updated: August 24, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 14, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Canada will hold snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who currently heads a minority government, is hoping to win a majority for his Liberals. However, many Canadians do not want elections at this time, making the decision a major gamble.
Rob Gillies, AP (August 15, 2021): Trudeau triggers Canadian election, voting day Sept. 20
Reuters (August 12, 2021): Canada PM Trudeau is planning to call snap election for Sept. 20 — sources
Aaron Wherry, CBC News (August 11, 2021): Election soon, or election later? For Trudeau, it’s a gamble either way
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible)
Haiti plans to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises. The political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Jamie Ross, Daily Beast (August 16, 2021): Earthquake’s Havoc Could Delay Post-Assassination Election, Says Haiti Leader
Jason Marczak and Wazim Mowla, Atlantic Council (August 15, 2021): Haiti needs the world’s help. Now.
Reuters (August 11, 2021): Haiti elections to replace slain president postponed to Nov. 7 -media
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
DW (August 14, 2021): Nicaragua: Prominent anti-Ortega newspaper raided by police
Tom Phillips, The Guardian (August 12, 2021): ‘We are in this nightmare’: Nicaragua continues its brazen crackdown – Ex-foreign minister among those arrested as Ortega detains political rivals as well as a columnist and ‘election geek’
AP (August 12, 2021): Newspaper goes online only as Nicaragua withholds newsprint
Alvaro Murillo, Reuters (August 10, 2021): Soaring number of Nicaraguans seek refuge in Costa Rica amid domestic crackdown
AP (August 9, 2021): EU says Ortega crushed prospect of fair Nicaraguan elections
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Patrick Gillespie and Ignacio Olivera Doll, Bloomberg (August 13, 2021): Argentina Tightens Capital Controls Ahead of Midterm Vote
Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg (August 13, 2021): Argentine President Apologizes for Party Photo Amid Lockdown
Ignacio Portes, The Brazilian Report (August 9, 2021): Argentina’s midterm elections will be decisive for Fernández’s survival
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Oliver Stuenkel, Americas Quarterly (August 10, 2021): Today’s Young Leftists Care More About Chile than Cuba
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Anthony Faiola and Ana Vanessa Herrero, Washington Post (August 13, 2021): Maduro and Venezuela’s opposition launch fresh talks. He seems to have the upper hand.
Fabiola Sanchez, AP (August 12, 2021): EXPLAINER: Low expectations for Venezuela-opposition talks
Maryhen Jiménez Morales, Americas Quarterly (August 11, 2021): Venezuela’s Negotiations Won’t Get Rid of Maduro. So What’s Next?
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some are searching for a third candidate to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Reuters (August 14, 2021): Bolsonaro Attacks Brazil Judges, Warns of ‘Institutional Rupture’
Mauricio Savarese and Marcelo Silva de Sousa, AP (August 11, 2021): Brazil’s Bolsonaro loses his bid to reform voting system
Michael Pooler, Financial Times (August 10, 2021): Brazil military parade ahead of electoral vote an ‘attack on democracy’: Bolsonaro condemned for trying to intimidate politicians before unsuccessful attempt to introduce printed ballot receipts
Past Americas Elections
Ecuador Presidential Elections: February 7 and April 11, 2021
Ecuador held a presidential runoff on April 11, 2021. Conservative Guillermo Lasso, who edged out indigenous activist Yaku Pérez for a spot in the runoff, surprised many by decisively defeating left-wing economist Andrés Arauz, a protege of former president Rafael Correa (himself barred from running after being convicted of corruption).
Currently, the capital, Quito, is experiencing political tensions surrounding the mayor, Jorge Yunda, a left-wing populist who faces charges for embezzlement. Yunda, elected in 2019 with only 21 percent support, was removed by the council in June but recently reinstated by a court. Both supporters and opponents of Yunda have been holding protests. More
Marieta Campaña, Expreso Ecuador (August 13, 2021 – in Spanish): Court sets for September 29 the start of the trial for Jorge Yunda and others: Last year the Prosecutor’s Office began investigations for alleged embezzlement in the purchase of tests to detect COVID-19
Samantha Schmidt, Washington Post (August 10, 2021): As mayor of Ecuador’s capital faces possible removal, councilman throws a glass of water at him
El Universo Ecuador (August 10, 2021 – in Spanish): President Guillermo Lasso: The people do not deserve what is happening today in the Municipality of Quito
El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021
El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More
Inés San Martín, Crux (August 16, 2021): Why El Salvador’s lone cardinal is sounding the alarm against a ‘culture of confrontation’
Michael D McDonald and Sydney Maki, Bloomberg (August 11, 2021): El Salvador Bonds Extend Slump on Plans to Overhaul Constitution
Rhina Guidos, Catholic News Service (August 9, 2021): El Salvador’s cardinal says country living through ‘political earthquake’
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Argentina Salta Provincial Elections: August 15, 2021 (postponed from July 4, 2021)
Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021 (additional delays possible following assassination of president and catastrophic earthquake)
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: August 13, 2021
Last Updated: August 24, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 13, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Australia Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021 and Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. In Australia’s last federal elections in May 2019, the conservative Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, won a surprise victory, even though polls had predicted that Labor would oust them. The Liberals are currently in their third term in government.
Meanwhile, several states hold various types of elections in 2021. Northern Territory is the next to vote, with local elections on August 28.
Byron Kaye and Jill Gralow, Reuters (August 10, 2021): ‘We are not the virus’: Two-tier Delta lockdowns divide Sydney
Alice Taylor, Exit Albania (August 10, 2021): Western Balkan Troll Networks Targeted Australia’s 2019 Federal Elections
Japan, Yokohama Mayoral Election: August 29, 2021 and General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest in September. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Before that, Yokohama, Japan’s second-biggest city, holds a mayoral election on August 29. Incumbent Fumiko Hayashi is running for a fourth term.
Yokohama
Devin O’Connor, Casino.org (August 10, 2021): Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga Backs Yokohama Anti-Casino Candidate: Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has narrowed down his pick of the eight candidates running for mayor of Yokohama. And to some surprise, Suga isn’t backing the incumbent who shares his party affiliation.
Sintaro Kamimura, Inside Asian Gaming (August 9, 2021): Record eight candidates confirmed to run in Yokohama mayoral election
Casino takes top billing, but Yokohama mayoral election may offer hints to Suga’s fate
Tetsuya Saito, Nikkei Asia (August 7, 2021): Yokohama election tests Japan’s casino push amid COVID headwind: Fierce mayoral race pits incumbent against raft of candidates opposing resort
General Elections
Walter Sim, Straits Times (August 14, 2021): Can embattled Japan PM Suga break the post-Olympics jinx?
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Selina Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press (August 14, 2021): Analysis: How almost everyone running for Hong Kong’s new election committee will get a seat automatically
Eric Lam and Kari Soo Lindberg, Bloomberg (August 12, 2021): Hong Kong’s Population Shrinks By 89,000 in Just 12 Months
Jeffie Lam, South China Morning Post (August 10, 2021): Bitter internal row brewing within Hong Kong’s Democratic Party over whether to contest Legislative Council elections
Vivian Wang and Joy Dong, New York Times (August 8, 2021): How an Obscure Swim Club Got a Say in Choosing Hong Kong’s Leader
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Taiwan, a robust democracy, is due to hold a referendum on December 18 with four questions (on algae reef protection, lifting restrictions on pork imports from the U.S., the activation of a nuclear plant, and referendum dates).
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Jiangli Yang, Newsweek (August 13, 2021): Taiwanese Identity Grows Stronger as China Seeks Reunification
Timothy S. Rich, Madelynn Einhorn, and Isabel Eliassen, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (August 13, 2021): Taiwan: The age-old question of who gets a vote
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Korea Times (August 11, 2021): Main opposition party sees sharp membership increase in run-up to presidential election
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
Philippines holds a presidential election on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Raissa Robles, South China Morning Post (August 14, 2021): Duterte said China pledged billions of dollars to the Philippines. What happened to it?
Michael Beltran, The Diplomat (August 13, 2021): Duterte Vs the International Criminal Court
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Tomoya Onishi, Nikkei Asia (August 13, 2021): Cambodia drawn ever closer to China a year after EU sanctions
Radio Free Asia (August 10, 2021): Families of Jailed Cambodian Activists Call on Government to Drop Incitement Charges
Papua New Guinea General Elections: June/July 2022 (due)
Papua New Guinea is due to hold general elections in June or July 2022.
Johnny Blades, Radio New Zealand (August 13, 2021): PNG considers major electoral changes before 2022 polls
Nepal General Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Seong Hyeon Choi, Eurasia Review (August 13, 2021): The BRI In Nepal: China’s Outreach To The Himalayas – Analysis
The Sentinel Assam (August 13, 2021): Nepal’s Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba puts India ahead of China
Thailand, Bangkok Local Elections and Referendum: TBD
Thai officials have said they will schedule elections soon for various types of local elections (such as Bangkok city council) and potentially a constitutional referendum. These follow provincial elections that took place in December 2020 and municipal elections in March 2021.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
Al Jazeera (August 14, 2021): Thai protesters clash with police at anti-PM rally in Bangkok
Ryan Ashley and Moez Hayat, The Diplomat (August 12, 2021): Making the ‘Network Monarchy’ Work in Thailand’s Deep South: A deeper view of Thailand’s southern insurgency reveals more about the nature of a nation facing new challenges from a vocal, youthful generation.
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
Norman Goh and Bhavan Jaipragas, South China Morning Post (August 13, 2021): Malaysia’s political crisis: opposition accuse embattled PM Muhyiddin of ‘corruption’ after offer of sweeping concessions, promise of poll by July 2022
Reuters (August 13, 2021): Malaysia’s opposition, key ally reject PM’s offer for bipartisan support
Eileen Ng, AP (August 13, 2021): Malaysian leader seeks opposition backing to stay in power
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
On May 7, a bomb blast hospitalized former president Mohamed Nasheed, one of the main architects of democracy in Maldives. The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. More
Anand Kumar, IDSA (August 13, 2021): Implications of Political Dissonance in the Maldives
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
David I. Steinberg, The Irrawaddy (August 14, 2021: Myanmar Junta’s Caretaker Government on Course to Fail
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (August 13, 2021): Myanmar’s Former Military Dictator Hospitalized Due to COVID-19: Than Shwe’s illness is paralleled by the collapse of the crafted system of semi-democracy that he engineered.
Robin Gomes, Vatican News (August 8, 2021): Myanmar protesters mark 1988 uprising
Regional Analysis
The Economist (August 14, 2021): Democracy is decaying in a growing number of Asian polities: Elected autocrats are undermining checks and balances
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Australia, Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021
Japan, Mayoral Election in Yokohama: August 29, 2021
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
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