August 7, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A protest against government repression in Managua, Nicaragua in 2018, at the moment to Alexis Arguello, a boxing champion who became mayor of Managua and was then assassinated. Photo credit: Wikimedia/El arzobispo (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Upcoming Americas Elections
Canada Nova Scotia Provincial Elections: August 17, 2021 and Parliamentary Elections: By October 16, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Canada is not due to hold federal elections until 2023, but snap elections could happen if the opposition manages to oust PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberal minority government in a vote of no confidence. Meanwhile, a number of provinces are holding elections this year.
Rebecca Lau, Global News Canada (August 5, 2021): The Nova Scotia election, the pandemic and a tide of plummeting voter turnout in Canada
Greg Mercer, Globe and Mail (August 1, 2021): As election looms, unity felt across Nova Scotia amid pandemic may be fading
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: September 26, 2021 (delays possible)
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved).
Reuters (August 6, 2021): Haiti, one month without assassinated president Jovenel Moise
Widlore Mérancourt, Samantha Schmidt and Shawn Boburg, Washington Post (August 6, 2021): In Haiti, a clouded assassination probe prompts fears of political crackdowns
James M. Roberts and Giovanna Milano, Heritage Foundation (August 6, 2021): President’s Assassination, Corruption, Gang Violence Accelerate Haiti’s Downward Spiral
Tara Adhikari, Christian Science Monitor (August 3, 2021): Haiti’s history of resilience – beyond coups and natural disaster
Sandra Lemaire, Voice of America (August 3, 2021): Haiti Electoral Council Chief Vows to Hold Elections Despite Setbacks
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Anthony J. Blinken Press Statement, U.S. Department of State (August 7, 2021): The Lack of Prospects for Free and Fair Election in Nicaragua
AFP (August 7, 2021): Main Nicaragua opposition party disqualified ahead of elections
Stephen Gibbs and Lucinda Elliott, The Times of London (August 7, 2021): Beauty queen rival jailed as Nicaragua’s new-age granny wields iron fist
Ryan C. Berg, CSIS (August 6, 2021): Nicaragua’s Upcoming Election Highlights Need for Long-Term Forms of Pressure on the Ortega Regime
DW (August 5, 2021): Nicaragua charges ex-beauty queen running for election: Berenice Quezada has been disqualified from running as vice president in the upcoming vote. She is the eighth candidate to be arrested since May.
José Miguel Vivanco, Human Rights Watch (August 5, 2021): New EU Sanctions on Nicaraguan Officials Amid Escalating Crisis
Editorial Board, Washington Post (August 5, 2021): Opinion: Democracy is under attack in Nicaragua
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Benedict Mander, Financial Times (August 2, 2021): Chile’s social upheaval leaves presidential race wide open
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Reuters (August 8, 2021): Venezuela’s ruling Socialist Party holds primaries for November regional election
Regina Garcia Cano and Juan Pablo Arraez, AP (August 5, 2021): On the bus or off, Venezuela journalists try to deliver news
Patricia Garip and Lucien Chauvin, Argus Media (August 5, 2021): Venezuela talks resuming as regional tide turns
Alex Vasquez, Bloomberg (August 4, 2021): Venezuela Election Talks Set to Begin Next Week in Mexico
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots in recent weeks. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Carlos Vargas, Reuters (August 6, 2021): Analysis: Colombia’s Duque likely to get tax reform, but little else, in final year
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some are searching for a third candidate to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Marcia Reverdosa and Juliana Koch, CNN (August 6, 2021): Bolsonaro is sowing doubt in Brazil’s electoral system. His claims could endanger his own candidacy.
Reuters (August 5, 2021): Voting change sought by Brazil’s Bolsonaro defeated in Congress
Simone Preissler Iglesias and Daniel Carvalho, Bloomberg (August 5, 2021): Brazil Political Crisis Grows as Bolsonaro, Top Court Bicker
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans began protesting in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Armando Chaguaceda and Coco Fusco, New York Times (August 7, 2021): Cubans Want Much More Than an End to the U.S. Embargo
Jonathan Custodio, Politico (August 5, 2021): Could VPNs help Cubans access the internet under the regime’s nose? The Biden administration has said it is working on the idea.
Leland Lazarus and Evan Ellis, The Diplomat (August 3, 2021): How China Helps the Cuban Regime Stay Afloat and Shut Down Protest
Past Americas Elections
Mexico Referendum: August 1, 2021
Mexico held a referendum on prosecuting former presidents on August 1, although many critics have dismissed it as pointless political theatre. Turnout was less than 7 percent, meaning the results are not binding.
This follows high-stakes midterm elections, which were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results will make it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
Global Americans (August 6, 2021): In Mexico, AMLO’s anti-corruption referendum falls flat
Editorial Board, Financial Times (August 4, 2021): Mexico’s dangerously selective pursuit of justice: President’s liking for shows masks a disregard for institutions and the rule of law
Peru Presidential Elections: April 11, 2021 and June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections for April 11, 2021. These elections are coming on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori is alleging fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Simeon Tegel, Al Jazeera (August 7, 2021): A tumultuous first week in office for Peru’s new president: Pedro Castillo is facing political and economic turmoil – including calls for his impeachment – as he forms his administration.
Lucien Chauvin, Christian Science Monitor (August 6, 2021): Peru elected a leftist outsider as president. Now it asks, can he do the job?
Andrea Moncada, Americas Quarterly (August 2, 2021): Is Pedro Castillo’s Presidency Already Doomed?
Bolivia Local Elections: March 7 and April 11, 2021
Bolivia held regional and local elections on March 7, 2021, and some races, including four gubernatorial races, held runoffs on April 11.
These followed a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
The Economist (August 7, 2021): Is Evo Morales staging a comeback in Bolivia?
AFP (August 7, 2021): Bolivia president vows to punish ‘coup’ accused
Guatemala General Elections: June 16 and August 11, 2019
Guatemala held general elections in 2019. These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Brendan O’Boyle, Americas Quarterly (August 2, 2021): Despite Protests, Guatemala’s President May Be Stronger than Ever
Reuters (August 3, 2021): Guatemala taps controversial prosecutor to replace fired graft-fighter
Regional Analysis
Scott B. MacDonald, Global Americans (August 5, 2021): Governance and electoral continuity and change in the Caribbean
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Argentina Salta Provincial Elections: August 15, 2021 (postponed from July 4, 2021)
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: September 26, 2021 (delays possible following assassination of president)
Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: August 7, 2021
Last Updated: August 16, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 7, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Canada Nova Scotia Provincial Elections: August 17, 2021 and Parliamentary Elections: By October 16, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Canada is not due to hold federal elections until 2023, but snap elections could happen if the opposition manages to oust PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberal minority government in a vote of no confidence. Meanwhile, a number of provinces are holding elections this year.
Rebecca Lau, Global News Canada (August 5, 2021): The Nova Scotia election, the pandemic and a tide of plummeting voter turnout in Canada
Greg Mercer, Globe and Mail (August 1, 2021): As election looms, unity felt across Nova Scotia amid pandemic may be fading
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: September 26, 2021 (delays possible)
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved).
Reuters (August 6, 2021): Haiti, one month without assassinated president Jovenel Moise
Widlore Mérancourt, Samantha Schmidt and Shawn Boburg, Washington Post (August 6, 2021): In Haiti, a clouded assassination probe prompts fears of political crackdowns
James M. Roberts and Giovanna Milano, Heritage Foundation (August 6, 2021): President’s Assassination, Corruption, Gang Violence Accelerate Haiti’s Downward Spiral
Tara Adhikari, Christian Science Monitor (August 3, 2021): Haiti’s history of resilience – beyond coups and natural disaster
Sandra Lemaire, Voice of America (August 3, 2021): Haiti Electoral Council Chief Vows to Hold Elections Despite Setbacks
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Anthony J. Blinken Press Statement, U.S. Department of State (August 7, 2021): The Lack of Prospects for Free and Fair Election in Nicaragua
AFP (August 7, 2021): Main Nicaragua opposition party disqualified ahead of elections
Stephen Gibbs and Lucinda Elliott, The Times of London (August 7, 2021): Beauty queen rival jailed as Nicaragua’s new-age granny wields iron fist
Ryan C. Berg, CSIS (August 6, 2021): Nicaragua’s Upcoming Election Highlights Need for Long-Term Forms of Pressure on the Ortega Regime
DW (August 5, 2021): Nicaragua charges ex-beauty queen running for election: Berenice Quezada has been disqualified from running as vice president in the upcoming vote. She is the eighth candidate to be arrested since May.
José Miguel Vivanco, Human Rights Watch (August 5, 2021): New EU Sanctions on Nicaraguan Officials Amid Escalating Crisis
Editorial Board, Washington Post (August 5, 2021): Opinion: Democracy is under attack in Nicaragua
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Benedict Mander, Financial Times (August 2, 2021): Chile’s social upheaval leaves presidential race wide open
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Reuters (August 8, 2021): Venezuela’s ruling Socialist Party holds primaries for November regional election
Regina Garcia Cano and Juan Pablo Arraez, AP (August 5, 2021): On the bus or off, Venezuela journalists try to deliver news
Patricia Garip and Lucien Chauvin, Argus Media (August 5, 2021): Venezuela talks resuming as regional tide turns
Alex Vasquez, Bloomberg (August 4, 2021): Venezuela Election Talks Set to Begin Next Week in Mexico
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots in recent weeks. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Carlos Vargas, Reuters (August 6, 2021): Analysis: Colombia’s Duque likely to get tax reform, but little else, in final year
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some are searching for a third candidate to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Marcia Reverdosa and Juliana Koch, CNN (August 6, 2021): Bolsonaro is sowing doubt in Brazil’s electoral system. His claims could endanger his own candidacy.
Reuters (August 5, 2021): Voting change sought by Brazil’s Bolsonaro defeated in Congress
Simone Preissler Iglesias and Daniel Carvalho, Bloomberg (August 5, 2021): Brazil Political Crisis Grows as Bolsonaro, Top Court Bicker
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans began protesting in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Armando Chaguaceda and Coco Fusco, New York Times (August 7, 2021): Cubans Want Much More Than an End to the U.S. Embargo
Jonathan Custodio, Politico (August 5, 2021): Could VPNs help Cubans access the internet under the regime’s nose? The Biden administration has said it is working on the idea.
Leland Lazarus and Evan Ellis, The Diplomat (August 3, 2021): How China Helps the Cuban Regime Stay Afloat and Shut Down Protest
Past Americas Elections
Mexico Referendum: August 1, 2021
Mexico held a referendum on prosecuting former presidents on August 1, although many critics have dismissed it as pointless political theatre. Turnout was less than 7 percent, meaning the results are not binding.
This follows high-stakes midterm elections, which were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results will make it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
Global Americans (August 6, 2021): In Mexico, AMLO’s anti-corruption referendum falls flat
Editorial Board, Financial Times (August 4, 2021): Mexico’s dangerously selective pursuit of justice: President’s liking for shows masks a disregard for institutions and the rule of law
Peru Presidential Elections: April 11, 2021 and June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections for April 11, 2021. These elections are coming on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori is alleging fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Simeon Tegel, Al Jazeera (August 7, 2021): A tumultuous first week in office for Peru’s new president: Pedro Castillo is facing political and economic turmoil – including calls for his impeachment – as he forms his administration.
Lucien Chauvin, Christian Science Monitor (August 6, 2021): Peru elected a leftist outsider as president. Now it asks, can he do the job?
Andrea Moncada, Americas Quarterly (August 2, 2021): Is Pedro Castillo’s Presidency Already Doomed?
Bolivia Local Elections: March 7 and April 11, 2021
Bolivia held regional and local elections on March 7, 2021, and some races, including four gubernatorial races, held runoffs on April 11.
These followed a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
The Economist (August 7, 2021): Is Evo Morales staging a comeback in Bolivia?
AFP (August 7, 2021): Bolivia president vows to punish ‘coup’ accused
Guatemala General Elections: June 16 and August 11, 2019
Guatemala held general elections in 2019. These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Brendan O’Boyle, Americas Quarterly (August 2, 2021): Despite Protests, Guatemala’s President May Be Stronger than Ever
Reuters (August 3, 2021): Guatemala taps controversial prosecutor to replace fired graft-fighter
Regional Analysis
Scott B. MacDonald, Global Americans (August 5, 2021): Governance and electoral continuity and change in the Caribbean
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Argentina Salta Provincial Elections: August 15, 2021 (postponed from July 4, 2021)
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: September 26, 2021 (delays possible following assassination of president)
Paraguay Local Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: August 6, 2021
Last Updated: August 14, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 6, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Australia Local Elections in Northern Territory: August 28, 2021 and Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. In Australia’s last federal elections in May 2019, the conservative Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, won a surprise victory, even though polls had predicted that Labor would oust them. The Liberals are currently in their third term in government.
Meanwhile, several states hold various types of elections in 2021. Northern Territory is the next to vote, with local elections on August 28.
David Smith, The Conversation (August 5, 2021): A ‘Christian nation’ no longer: why Australia’s religious right loses policy battles even when it wins elections
Japan, Yokohama Mayoral Election: August 29, 2021 and General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest in September. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Before that, Yokohama, Japan’s second-biggest city, holds a mayoral election on August 29. Incumbent Fumiko Hayashi is running for a fourth term.
Tetsuya Saito, Nikkei Asia (August 7, 2021): Yokohama election tests Japan’s casino push amid COVID headwind: Fierce mayoral race pits incumbent against raft of candidates opposing resort
JIJI (August 4, 2021): Japan’s ruling LDP to decide date of leadership election on Aug. 26
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Macau is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, having reverted from Portuguese control to Chinese control in 1999. The main industry is gaming, with a casino sector seven times the size of that of Las Vegas. The legislature is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians, who hold 29 out of the 33 seats, with pro-democracy politicians holding the remaining four.
Most recently, pro-democracy candidates were banned from the upcoming elections, mirroring Hong Kong’s crackdown on democracy.
Selina Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press (August 3, 2021): Macau politician says he fears further action after democrats barred from legislative election
Macau Business (August 2, 2021): Lisbon, Beijing agree Macau is “specific case” – Portuguese FM
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Ben Fox, AP (August 6, 2021): As democracy dims in Hong Kong, US offers an 18-month safe haven
Selina Cheng, Hong Kong Free Press (August 5, 2021): Centrist party finds it hard to pass first hurdle in Hong Kong’s new ‘patriots only’ political era
Zen Soo and Matthew Cheng, AP (August 5, 2021): Corruption charges dropped for Hong Kong singer, activist
Ahmed Aboudouh, The Independent (August 3, 2021): By arresting singer, China is crushing any glimpse of opposition ahead of Hong Kong elections
Wenxin Fan, Wall Street Journal (August 2, 2021): Hong Kong Pop Singer Anthony Wong Yiu-ming Arrested for Singing at a 2018 Election Rally
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Taiwan, a robust democracy, is due to hold a referendum on December 18 with four questions (on algae reef protection, lifting restrictions on pork imports from the U.S., the activation of a nuclear plant, and referendum dates).
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Sarah A. Topol, New York Times (August 4, 2021): Is Taiwan Next? In Taipei, young people like Nancy Tao Chen Ying watched as the Hong Kong protests were brutally extinguished. Now they wonder what’s in their future
Bill Sharp, East Asia Forum (August 3, 2021): Tsai’s high stakes on Taiwan’s upcoming referendum
Thailand, Bangkok Local Elections and Referendum: TBD
Thai officials have said they will schedule elections soon for various types of local elections (such as Bangkok city council) and potentially a constitutional referendum. These follow provincial elections that took place in December 2020 and municipal elections in March 2021.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
Punchada Sirivunnabood, Channel News Asia (August 7, 2021): Commentary: Thailand’s old camps united in anti-government angst
Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat, Reuters (August 3, 2021): A year after taboo on Thai king broken, 103 face jail for royal insult
Human Rights Watch (August 3, 2021): Thailand: Immediately Repeal Emergency Regulation that Threatens Online Freedoms
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi.
Rahul Noronha, India Today (August 5, 2021): Why Madhya Pradesh’s urban body and panchayat elections remain delayed
Neelanjan Sircar, World Politics Review (August 5, 2021): Modi’s aura of invincibility is starting to crumble
Michael Rubin, The National Interest (August 3, 2021): India Proves Critics Wrong on Kashmir: While much of the world treated it with opprobrium two years ago, subsequent events show the Indian government’s move was both wise and prescient.
Ashish Ranjan, India Today (July 31, 2021): Why UP politics looks more Brahmin-centric for 2022 elections
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
Philippines holds a presidential election on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Reuters (August 6, 2021): Philippine ruling party leaders endorse Duterte for VP in 2022
Kevin Nielsen Agojo, The Diplomat (August 6, 2021): Extending Their Call of Duty? Ex-Police Officers Running for Office in the Philippines
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Luke Hunt and Helen Jarvis, The Diplomat (August 6, 2021 – podcast): After 15 Years, Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge Tribunal Nears Its End
Reuters (August 5, 2021): U.S. senators to reintroduce bill targeting Cambodian officials on rights
Radio Free Asia (August 4, 2021): Cambodian Opponents Form New Political Parties, With PM’s Blessing: Analysts say division in opposition helps the ruling party keep rivals off balance.
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Fiji is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. In 2006, Josaia Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama seized power in a coup. Since then, the country has held several sets of elections that Bainimarama has won. Despite concerns about media freedom and political space for the opposition, some observers have deemed the elections credible – Bainimarama has at least brought political stability, making him popular with many Fijians.
Steven Ratuva, Radio New Zealand (August 2, 2021): Repression not the answer to Fiji’s political dilemma
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
The Economist (August 5, 2021): Malaysia’s politics are rotten from the top
Hadi Azmi, Yantoultra Ngui and Anisah Shukry, Bloomberg News (August 4, 2021): Malaysia’s Political Woes Worsen as Key Party Leaves Ruling Bloc
PTI (August 4, 2021): Malaysian PM refuses to resign, delays vote by a month
Alifah Zainuddin, The Diplomat (August 2, 2021): Malaysia’s Youth Step Up Protests As Political Crisis Deepens: Young protestors gather momentum as calls for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s resignation grow louder
Bhavan Jaipragas, South China Morning Post (August 2, 2021): Malaysia’s Muhyiddin has mastered dodging the opposition – but will a showdown with the king prove his undoing
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Samoa General Elections: April 9, 2021
Samoa held general elections on April 9, 2021, and after a post-election roller coaster ride, a new prime minister has finally been inaugurated and approved by the courts. A new opposition party, Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST, “Faith in the one true God”), posed a new challenge to the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which has been in power since 1982.
FAST ultimately won the knife-edge election, but the former prime minister refused to concede and the ensuing political standoff lasted more than three months. Following a court decision, FAST was declared the winner of the elections and Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa was sworn in as prime minister – the first woman to hold the office.
Catherine Wilson, World Politics Review (August 6, 2021): A New Political Era Dawns in Samoa
Natalie Liu, Voice of America (August 5, 2021): Samoa Election Seen as Setback to China’s Pacific Ambitions
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
Tommy Walker, Voice of America (August 6, 2021): The Battle for Myanmar Six Months After the Coup
AFP (August 3, 2021): US dismisses Myanmar election plan, urges ASEAN pressure
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (August 2, 2021): Myanmar Junta Forms Caretaker Government, Promises Elections in 2023: But the announcement will do little to convince the large proportion of the Myanmar public opposing military rule.
AP (August 2, 2021): Myanmar’s Military Leader Declares Himself Prime Minister And Promises Elections
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendum: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: August 5, 2021
Last Updated: August 21, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 5, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia is due to hold parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia. Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates. More
Anton Zverev, Reuters (August 5, 2021): Russian opposition activist to run for parliament from jail
AFP (August 4, 2021): OSCE Says Will Not Monitor Russian Duma Elections
AP (August 4, 2021): Russia blocks access to 2 news sites critical of the Kremlin
Al Jazeera (August 3, 2021): Russia restricts movement of key Navalny ally for 18 months: Lyubov Sobol handed a travel ban, curfew order over involvement in pro-Navalny protests earlier this year
RFE/RL (August 1, 2021): In Time-Tested Spoiler Tactic, Russian Opposition Candidates Face Rivals With The Same Names
Natia Seskuria, Chatham House (August 1, 2021): Putin’s problem children: Russia’s leader faces a backlash from the generation that has lost out under his rule
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Georgia has scheduled local elections for October 2, 2021, and they are particularly important because – as a result of a deal to resolve the political crisis following last year’s parliamentary elections – they could spark new parliamentary elections if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins less than 43 percent of the proportional vote. However, the ruling Georgian Dream scrapped the agreement in July, raising concerns about Georgia’s political stability. The political climate is tense, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout.
Most recently, an uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
Giorgi Menabde, Jamestown Foundation (August 4, 2021): [European Council President] Charles Michel Tries to Keep Georgia From Leaving the European Orbit
JAMnews (August 3, 2021): Georgian Dream and opposition UNM top IRI opinion polls in Georgia
Stratfor (August 2, 2021): An Annulled Political Deal Plunges Georgia Back Into Uncertainty
OC Media (July 30, 2021): The Georgian Dream Party withdraws from EU-brokered deal with opposition
RFE/RL (July 30, 2021): U.S., EU Concerned Over Stability After Georgia’s Ruling Party Annuls Political Deal
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Kyrgyzstan’s leader has proposed re-running the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Aizat Shailoobek kyzy, Global Voices (August 5, 2021): Is anti-Chinese sentiment in Kyrgyzstan strong enough to freeze a key Belt and Road Initiative project?
Ilgiz Kambarov, The Diplomat (August 4, 2021): Upcoming Parliament Elections Present New Opportunities and Challenges for Kyrgyzstan
Human Rights Watch (August 3, 2021): Kyrgyzstan: “False Information” Law Threatens Free Speech
Muhammad Tahir and Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL (August 1, 2021 – podcast): Kyrgyzstan Backtracks On Human Rights And Freedom Of The Press
Past Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Rural Elections: July 25, 2021
Kazakhstan held rural elections (“Akim elections”) on July 25. For the first time, hundreds of villages elected mayors directly. These follow legislative elections that took place January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature. More
Colleen Wood, The Diplomat (August 2, 2021): Akim Elections: More Cosmetic Reform in Kazakhstan?
Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Moldova held snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016. More
Hannah Brown with AFP, Euronews (August 5, 2021): These picture perfect lavender fields in Moldova are part of a comeback story
Riley Green, Foreign Brief (August 5, 2021): Parliament of the Republic of Moldova to approve Prime Minister-elect Natalia Gavrilita
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (July 30, 2021): Sandu Appoints Pro-Western Ally Gavrilita as Moldova’s PM-Designate
Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021
Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin.
Pashinyan became prime minister following the 2018 pro-democracy “Velvet Revolution.” However, he mostly maintained Armenia’s pro-Russia geopolitical stance, and that does not look likely to change in the near future.
JAMnews (August 3, 2021): Armenian opposition boycotts first session of the newly elected parliament
AP (August 2, 2021): Pashinyan officially appointed Armenia’s prime minister
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests continue. More
Latika Bourke, Sydney Morning Herald (August 4, 2021): No safe place: hanging, defection and hijacking prompt outcry against Belarus
Reuters (August 4, 2021): Maria Kolesnikova, face of Belarus street protests, goes on trial
BBC (August 4, 2021): Svetlana Tikhanovskaya: Belarus opposition leader hopeful after Boris Johnson meeting
Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation (August 3, 2021): The Diplomatic Triumph of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the Fate of the Belarusian Opposition
Paulina Smolinski, CBS News (July 31, 2021): Belarusian opposition leader brings her country’s fight for democracy to the U.S.
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2, 2021
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: August 4, 2021
Last Updated: August 12, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 4, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens have taken SPD’s place as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world. However, despite his unpopularity, Armin Laschet remains the favorite to succeed Merkel as chancellor. Nonetheless, German voters have a real choice and Baerbock, who comes from the party’s “realo” (moderate) wing as opposed to the “fundi” (radical) wing – has an actual shot at the top job. More
Emma Anderson, Politico (August 5, 2021): German Greens must sit out vote in one state during national election: But far-right AfD succeeds in its appeal, allowing the party to run a list of candidates in another state.
Constanze Stelzenmüller, Brookings Institution (August 4, 2021): ‘None of the above?’ Germany’s eminently resistible chancellor candidates have escaped the hardships of previous leaders
Arne Delfs, Bloomberg (August 4, 2021): German CDU’s Laschet Delays Campaign Start to Tackle Floods
Jens Thurau, DW (August 3, 2021): German Green party presents plan for flood prevention
Italy, Mayoral Elections in Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and other cities and regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Italy is due to hold regional elections in Calabria in the south, as well as mayoral elections in several major cities, later this year. The next general elections aren’t due until June 2023, but as is ever the case with Italy, snap elections are possible. However, in January 2021, the government collapsed after former prime minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his support. Former European Central Bank chief Mario “Super Mario” Draghi formed a government in February 2021.
Hannah Roberts, Politico (August 4, 2021): Italy’s 5Stars complete shift to traditional party: Members back overhaul championed by ex-PM Conte.
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Pauline Bock, New York Times (August 3, 2021): Emmanuel Macron Told the French What to Do. It Didn’t Go Well.
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
Jeremy Barr, The Independent (August 4, 2021): Fox News host Tucker Carlson takes his show and conservative message to Hungary
United Kingdom General Elections: May 2, 2024
The United Kingdom is due to hold its next general election on May 2, 2024, although early elections could happen in the event of a House of Commons no confidence vote in Boris Johnson’s Conservative government, or a two-thirds majority vote in favor of new elections.
In the UK’s May 6, 2021 local elections, the Conservatives made gains on councils, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament.
In addition, the Conservatives won a parliamentary election in Hartlepool, a longtime Labour stronghold, a sign of a possible realignment of British politics as the Tories make gains in the Labour heartland. Some analysts have said that Labour is going through a post-Brexit identity crisis. More
George Parker, Financial Times (August 5, 2021): Starmer urges Labour to embrace Blair’s legacy as he vows to win the next election
Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021 (presidential election due in October/November 2021)
Bulgaria held fresh parliamentary elections on July 11 after no party formed a government following the April 4 elections. In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election. In the July elections, Trifonov’s party surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not a majority. Ultimately, ITN’s Plamen Nikolov was invited to try to form a government, and thus the ball is currently in his court.
Moreover, Bulgaria is due to hold a presidential election in Fall 2021. In Bulgaria’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely symbolic role. More
Christian Oliver, Politico (August 4, 2021): Summer in a Bulgarian village: Elections, lethal grannies and a bear
Reuters (August 3, 2021): Bulgaria’s prime minister-designate optimistic he can lead minority government
RFE/RL (July 30, 2021): Antiestablishment Party’s Nikolov Gets Mandate To Form Bulgarian Government
Slav Okov, Bloomberg (July 30, 2021): Bulgarian President Hands Pop Star Shot at Forming Government
Finland Local Elections: June 13, 2021 (postponed from April)
Finland held local elections on June 13, 2021, delayed from April due to COVID-19. Following the 2019 parliamentary elections, a left-leaning coalition came into government nationally. The conservative National Coalition Party won the most seats in the local elections, with the Social Democrats placing second. The far-right Finns Party made gains in its vote share. More
YLE (August 1, 2021): Nearly 9,000 local councillors take office, two months later than planned: More than 40 percent of local councillors are now women, a slight rise from the previous term.
Albania Parliamentary Elections: April 25, 2021
Albania held parliamentary elections on April 25, 2021 in a tense political climate with several violent incidents. Since communism collapsed in 1990, Albania has held competitive elections and several transitions of power between political parties. The elections were close, and the incumbent Socialist Party won a third term in office, defeating the main opposition center-right Democratic Party. More
Una Hajdari and Aleksandar Brezar, Foreign Policy (August 2, 2021): Edi Rama Is Building Bridges to Europe—or Nowhere
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 (by parliament)
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: October/November 2021 (due)
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: August 3, 2021
Last Updated: August 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 3, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021 (tentative) and Provincial Elections (due)
Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10, postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early, following the demands of protesters. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability.
A number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls, including the Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians. More
Nancy Ezzededine and Erwin Van Veen, War on the Rocks (August 4, 2021): Warning signs: Qassem Musleh and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces
Farhad Alaaldin, Rudaw (August 2, 2021): Sadr’s withdrawal disturbs power balance, weakens elections
Agenzia Fides (July 30, 2021): Political party of Christians announces the boycott of the next parliamentary elections
The National UAE (July 29, 2021): US envoy to Iraq: early elections possible despite attempts to discredit them
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021 (tentative)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed indefinitely due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. More
Egypt Today (August 2, 2021): Voter registration for Libya’s upcoming elections extended for 2 weeks
UN News (July 30, 2021): Mercenaries ‘impede’ peace, must leave Libya to allow elections
Robert F. Worth and Jehad Nga, New York Times (July 30, 2021 – with photo essay): Qaddafi’s Son Is Alive. And He Wants to Take Libya Back.
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (announced – date not set)
Qatar has announced that it will hold its first-ever parliamentary elections in October 2021. More
Reuters (July 30, 2021): Qatar’s emir approves electoral law for first legislative polls
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
Darin LaHood, Darrell Issa, and Charlie Crist, The Hill (August 4, 2021): US must support Lebanon as it faces economic and political instability
Ben Hubbard and Bryan Denton, New York Times (August 4, 2021 – photo essay): Collapse: Inside Lebanon’s Worst Economic Meltdown in More Than a Century
Anchal Vohra. Foreign Policy (August 4, 2021): Lebanon’s Billionaire Prime Minister Can Only Buy Time: A year after Beirut’s devastating port blast, the country’s political class is desperately trying to avoid a political reckoning.
Elise Ann Allen, Crux (August 4, 2021): One year after Beirut blast, vast political overhaul is needed, priest says
Mohamad Bazzi, CNN (August 3, 2021): A year after massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon’s crisis deepens
Leela Jacinto, France24 (August 2, 2021): Beirut blast propels activist from street protests to political action
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Bahrain is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. Since a 2011 uprising, Bahrain has become increasingly authoritarian and repressive, especially vis a vis the Shi’ite opposition (Bahrain is more than half Shi’hite but ruled by a Sunni royal family). The opposition was barred from participating in the last elections in 2018. Moreover, the monarch has executive power as well as the power to appoint the prime minister and cabinet. Therefore, parliament is generally not very powerful.
Al Jazeera (July 30, 2021): Rights groups call on Bahrain to release prominent hunger striker
Turkey General Elections: By June 25, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections, and more than half of Turkish citizens want an early vote. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers. Freedom House subsequently downgraded Turkey from Partly Free to Not Free in 2018.
Carlotta Gall, New York Times (August 4, 2021): Turks Wage War on Social Media as Raging Fires Turn Political: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has come under a concerted attack by his opponents over his handling of the worst forest fires in decades.
Onur Ant, Bloomberg (July 31, 2021): Turkey’s Government, Pro-Kurdish Party Spar Over Murdered Family
Aykan Erdemir and Sude Akgundogdu, The National Interest (July 30, 2021): Erdogan Escalates Turkish Campaign to Disenfranchise Six Million Pro-Kurdish Voters
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed indefinitely
The Palestinian Authority has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. More
James Rothwell, The Telegraph (August 1, 2021): Palestinian Authority intensifies crackdown on protesters over death of activist in custody: Why the cancellations of elections and the death of a prominent activist are fuelling tensions in West Bank
Nidal al-Mughrabi, Reuters (August 1, 2021): Haniyeh Re-Elected as Chief of Palestinian Islamist Group Hamas
Daniel Rice, Foreign Brief (July 31, 2021): Palestinian Presidential election indefinitely postponed
Past Middle East Elections
Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir Elections: July 25, 2021
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), part of the Pakistan-administered portion of the disputed region of Kashmir, held elections on July 25, 2021. These follow elections in Gilgit-Baltistan, the other part of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The elections were originally due by April 2, 2021, but have been delayed.
The region is a geopolitical hotspot. Tensions with India (India and Pakistan have fought three wars, including two over Kashmir) are growing and both sides are upping their military presence. Moreover, the area is a centerpiece of China’s Belt and Road, which further inflames Pakistan’s relations with India and generally complicates the geopolitics of the region.
Times of India (August 4, 2021): Explained: What Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan plan means for India, China
Radio Mashaal, RFE/RL (August 4, 2021): Pakistani Opposition Decries Alleged Former Militant’s Spot On Ruling Party List
Dunya News (July 29, 2021): PML-N announces countrywide protest after alleging rigging in AJK polls
Umair Jamal, The Diplomat (July 29, 2021): Elections in Pakistan’s Kashmir Highlight Domination by Mainland Parties
Iran Presidential and Local Elections: June 18, 2021
Iran held its next presidential election on June 18, 2021, with concurrent local elections. While Iran is far from a free country, and the elections are largely rigged, voters have in the past had a degree of choice. However, this year’s election was even more rigged than usual. The Guardian Council (which must approve all candidacies) allowed seven candidates on the ballot and mostly excluded moderates and establishment figures, among them a number of prominent names. This seemed to be calculated to clear the way for hardline judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi to win, and he did in fact win.
Raisi’s win complicates things for the Biden administration, which is seeking to restore the nuclear deal that the Trump administration left. More
Bonnie Kristian, The Week (August 3, 2021): Biden’s Iran miscalculation
Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
In July 2021, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup.
Stratfor (August 4, 2021): Tunisia Braces for a Prolonged Political Crisis
Shadi Hamid, Brookings Institution (August 3, 2021): Tunisia, democracy, and the return of American hypocrisy
Magdi Abdelhadi, BBC (August 3, 2021): Tunisia crisis: Democrats, despots and the fight for power
Elizia Volkmann, Al Jazeera (August 3, 2021): ‘Defining moment’: What’s next for Tunisia’s Ennahdha? Tunisia’s largest parliamentary party faces an existential threat after President Saied assumed executive powers
Heba Saleh, Financial Times (August 2, 2021): Weary Tunisians welcome president’s power grab; A decade on from a democratic revolution, many see the return of one-man rule as an antidote to corruption
Simon Speakman Cordall, Time (July 30, 2021): Tunisia’s President Staged What Looks Like a Coup. But Democracy Isn’t Dead There Yet
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Morocco Legislative, Provincial, and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: September 2021 (due)
Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (proposed)
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Algeria Local Elections: November 2022 (due – earlier elections possible)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Municipal Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
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