July 24, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Protesters in Havana, Cuba, which saw the biggest anti-regime protests in decades this month. Photo credit: Wikimedia/14yrmedio (CC BY 3.0)
Upcoming Americas Elections
Saint Lucia Parliamentary Elections: July 26, 2021
Saint Lucia, Saint Lucia, a democracy with competitive elections and regular transfers of power, has scheduled general elections for July 26, after a slight delay due to COVID-19. The two main parties are the center-right United Workers Party, led by Prime Minister Allen Chastanet, and the main opposition social democratic Saint Lucia Labour Party. More
Jamaica Gleaner (July 24, 2021): Commonwealth group begins observation of elections in St Lucia
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: September 26, 2021 (delays possible)
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed.
Anthony Faiola, Washington Post (July 23, 2021): Haiti buries a president, but its long-term crisis lives on
Oliver Stuenkel, Carnegie Endowment (July 21, 2021): Haitians Should Be at the Center of Rebuilding Their Country
AFP (July 21, 2021): Haiti’s opposition, civil society distance themselves from new PM
Kejal Vyas and Juan Montes, Wall Street Journal (July 21, 2021): Haiti Inaugurates New Leader Two Weeks After President’s Assassination: Prime Minister Ariel Henry says his main goal is to organize elections to take place in 120 days; ‘I’m not afraid’
AP (July 19, 2021): New Haiti Leader With International Backing to Take Charge: Haiti’s elections minister says that interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph will step down in the wake of the July 7 assassination of President Jovenel Moise.
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
DW (July 25, 2021): Nicaragua: Another presidential contender arrested ahead of election: Opposition leader Noel Vidaurre became the seventh potential candidate to be arrested by President Daniel Ortega’s government ahead of Nicaragua’s November 7 election.
AFP (July 20, 2021): Nicaragua’s under-fire Ortega seeking fourth term in a row
AP (July 19, 2021): Nicaragua marks 1979 revolution date with opponents jailed
Argentina Provincial Elections Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections this fall, along with a few sets of provincial elections. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Rio Times (July 22, 2021): Argentine opposition and ruling party finalize lists of candidates for primary elections
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. The results of the primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation.
Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings, posing a challenge for his party’s candidate (who will be chosen in the July primary election). Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one third of the Constitutional Assembly. In the July 18 presidential primaries, center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Matthew Malinowski and Valentina Fuentes, Bloomberg (July 23, 2021): Center-Left Candidate Jumps Into Chile Presidential Race
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review (July 22, 2021): Chile’s Voters Tack Back to the Center
MercoPress (July 19, 2021): Underdogs emerge triumphant from Chile’s primary elections
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Reuters (July 25, 2021): Venezuela’s Maduro aims for dialogue with opposition in August
Drew Agren, Catholic News Service (July 23, 2021): Vatican official’s call for serious negotiations in Venezuela draws rebuke
Alex Vasquez, Bloomberg (July 23, 2021): Venezuela’s Opposition Is Open to New Round of Political Talks
Al Jazeera (July 20, 2021): UK government backs Guaido in Venezuela gold dispute: Release of nearly $2bn Venezuelan gold held by Bank of England hinges on who London recognises as the country’s leader.
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots in recent weeks. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Al Jazeera (July 22, 2021): Colombian authorities say ex-FARC behind recent Duque attack: Authorities say they arrested 10 former Colombian FARC rebels based in Venezuela responsible for two attacks last month.
Anderson Tepper, New York Times (July 22, 2021): ‘A Storm Waiting to Happen’: A Colombian Writer Watches His Home From Afar
AFP (July 20, 2021): Thousands protest as Colombia gov’t submits new tax reform plan
Inés San Martin, Crux (July 20, 2021): Latam bishops face unrest and division in Cuba, Colombia and Nicaragua
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some are searching for a third candidate to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Reuters (July 24, 2021): Brazilian protesters call for impeachment of Bolsonaro for 2nd time in a month
Terrence McCoy and Gabriela Sá Pessoa, Washington Post (July 23, 2021): Bolsonaro once said he’d stage a military takeover. Now Brazilians fear he could be laying the foundation for one.
Tom Phillips, The Guardian (July 23, 2021): Angry Brazilians dress as reptiles for their Covid jabs to mock Bolsonaro
Gabriel Stargardter and Lisandra Paraguassu, Reuters (July 22, 2021): ‘No banana republic’: Brazil’s politicos guarantee 2022 vote after bombshell story
Bryan Harris, Financial Times (July 19, 2021): Lula keeps policies a mystery on Brazil comeback trail: Former two-term president has emerged as serious challenger to Bolsonaro
Canada Parliamentary Elections: By October 16, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Canada is not due to hold federal elections until 2023, but snap elections could happen if the opposition manages to oust PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberal minority government in a vote of no confidence. Meanwhile, a number of provinces are holding elections this year.
Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Politico (July 21, 2021): All the reasons Trudeau should think twice about an election
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans began protesting in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Martha Kelner, Sky News (July 25, 2021): Cuba protests: More than 500 people still missing two weeks after anti-government protests, activists say
Tania Bruguera, Politico (July 21, 2021): ‘There’s No Turning Back’: A Cuban Dissident on What’s Really Happening in Cuba
Past Americas Elections
Peru Presidential Runoff: June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections for April 11, 2021. These elections are coming on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori is alleging fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Editorial Board, Washington Post (July 23, 2021): Opinion: Peru’s democracy survived a squeaker election. Will it outlast a far-left president?
Alexandra Graham, The National Interest (July 21, 2021): A Recurring Populist Impulse Serves to Damage Peru
Stefano Pozzebon, Karol Suarez and Jose Armijo, CNN (July 19, 2021): Peru’s electoral authority declares Pedro Castillo President-elect, 6 weeks after runoff
Mexico Legislative, Gubernatorial, and Local Elections: June 6, 2021
Mexico held high-stakes midterm legislative elections, as well as gubernatorial elections in 15 of Mexico’s 31 states, and local elections, on June 6, 2021. In total, more than 21,000 offices are at stake – the biggest elections in Mexico’s history.
These elections were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results will make it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
The Economist (July 24, 2021): Mexico’s middle class is struggling: First it was battered by the pandemic, now by the president
Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg (July 24, 2021): Mexican president proposes replacing OAS with new institution
AP (July 22, 2021): Mexico fines candidate’s party for role of influencer wife
Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post (July 21, 2021): How Mexico’s traditional political espionage went high-tech: Victims say the use of Pegasus spyware through 2017 had a chilling effect on journalists and human rights workers. The government says it halted the practice, but questions remain.
Guatemala General Elections: June 16 and August 11, 2019
Guatemala held general elections in 2019. These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Sofia Menchu, Reuters (July 24, 2021): Hundreds protest ouster of Guatemalan anti-graft crusader
Reuters (July 23, 2021): Guatemala attorney general removes head of anti-corruption unit
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Saint Lucia Parliamentary Elections: July 26, 2021
Argentina Salta Provincial Elections: August 15, 2021 (postponed from July 4, 2021)
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections, plus delayed constitutional referendum: September 26, 2021
Paraguay Municipal Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: July 27, 2021
Last Updated: August 5, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 27, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Jordan Local Elections: By September 2021 (due)
Jordan is due to hold local elections by September 2021. These follow parliamentary elections, which happened on November 10, 2020. Turnout was low, and both women and Islamist candidates saw poor results. Subsequently, King Abdullah II announced a new high-level committee to enact political reforms. This is not the first such effort in Jordan, and past attempts at change have been a disappointment to those who hope for reform, but it could be promising. More
Jordan Times (July 25, 2021): Election subcommittee approves amendments to draft election law
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021 (tentative) and Provincial Elections (due)
Iraq plans to hold early elections on October 10, postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early, following the demands of protesters. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections. Preparations are taking place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. More
The New Arab (July 27, 2021): Iraq election boycott grows over fraud, security fears
Osama Al Sharif, Jordan Times (July 27, 2021): Kadhimi’s political survival hinges on outcome of Washington trip
AP (July 27, 2021): Biden: US will end military combat mission in Iraq by end of year
Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz (July 27, 2021): With Shake-up in Kurdish Party, Iran’s Influence in Iraqi Kurdistan Gets a Boost
International Crisis Group (July 26, 2021): Iraq’s Tishreen Uprising: From Barricades to Ballot Box
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (announced – date not set)
Qatar has announced that it will hold its first-ever parliamentary elections in October 2021. More
David Harding, The Independent (July 29, 2021): Qatar announces biggest electoral reform in history, year ahead of World Cup
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021 (tentative)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed indefinitely due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. More
Robert F. Worth, New York Times (July 30, 2021): Qaddafi’s Son Is Alive. And He Wants to Take Libya Back.
Nate Wilson and Elie Abouaoun, Al Jazeera (July 28, 2021): Libya’s new interim government is facing an arduous task: The country’s path to elections and sustainable peace is full of unspoken obstacles
Reuters (July 27, 2021): Libya to return to ‘square one’ if elections delayed: Saleh
Francesco Bongarrà, Arab News (July 26, 2021): Libyan election talks get underway in Rome
Abdulkader Assad, Libya Observer (July 25, 2021): Haftar loyalists launch his Libya president elections campaign
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lebanon is due to hold general elections in May 2022, although some parties have called for early elections. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
Chloe Cornish, Financial Times (July 29, 2021): Lebanon’s year from hell: a diary – Last year’s explosion should have been a nadir. Instead it was the start of a further descent into chaos
Nader Durgham, Washington Post (July 26, 2021): Businessman Najib Mikati becomes Lebanon’s latest prime minister designate
Tunisia Presidential and Legislative Elections: September/October 2019
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
This month, Saied dismissed the government, a move that some deemed a coup.
Charu Sudan Kasturi, OZY (July 28, 2021): The Butterfly Effect: Death of a democratic dream?
Kaouther Larbi, AFP (July 28, 2021): Tunisia’s largest party calls for elections, warns against ‘autocratic regime’
Al Jazeera (July 28, 2021): Tunisia tries to reassure as Ennahdha presses for early elections
Hans von der Burchard and David M. Herszenhorn, Politico (July 27, 2021): EU urges Tunisia to protect democracy but skirts criticism
Colm Quinn, Foreign Policy (July 27, 2021): Global Powers Shrug as Opponents Denounce ‘Coup’ in Tunisia
Vivian Yee, New York Times (July 26, 2021): Tunisia’s Democracy Verges on Collapse as President Moves to Take Control: The effort by President Kais Saied threatened the only democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring protests a decade ago, and his opponents called it a coup.
Peter Beaumont, The Guardian (July 26, 2021): Kais Saied: the ‘Robocop’ president accused of launching Tunisia coup: Law professor was surprise 2019 election winner and now finds himself at centre of political crisis
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed indefinitely
The Palestinian Authority has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006.
Since the announcement of the delay, the conflict between Hamas and Israel reignited. Following 11 days of fighting, the parties reached a ceasefire on May 20. More
Jonathan H. Ferziger, Foreign Policy (July 29, 2021): Will Abbas get tripped up by the Palestinian diaspora? Palestinians abroad are looking beyond the aging leader.
Abdel Raouf Arnaout, Axios (July 28, 2021): Palestinian President Abbas to reshuffle government amid growing backlash
Past Middle East Elections
Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir Elections: July 25, 2021
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), part of the Pakistan-administered portion of the disputed region of Kashmir, held elections on July 25, 2021. These follow elections in Gilgit-Baltistan, the other part of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The elections were originally due by April 2, 2021, but have been delayed.
The region is a geopolitical hotspot. Tensions with India (India and Pakistan have fought three wars, including two over Kashmir) are growing and both sides are upping their military presence. Moreover, the area is a centerpiece of China’s Belt and Road, which further inflames Pakistan’s relations with India.
Umair Jamal, The Diplomat (July 29, 2021): Elections in Pakistan’s Kashmir Highlight Domination by Mainland Parties: The election campaign saw little discussion of Pakistan’s territorial claims over Indian-administered Kashmir.
Dunya News (July 29, 2021): PML-N announces countrywide protest after alleging rigging in AJK polls
Zia Ur Rehman, TRT World (July 27, 2021): Fragmented democracy: Elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir
Roshan Mughal, Voice of America (July 27, 2021): PM Imran Khan’s Party Wins Elections in Pakistani-Controlled Kashmir
Tariq Naqash, Dawn (July 25, 2021): Counting of votes underway in violence-marred AJK elections; 2 PTI workers killed, 5 policemen beaten up
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Morocco Legislative, Provincial, and Local Elections: September 8, 2021
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: September 2021 (due)
Iraq Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Qatar Shura Council Elections: October 2021 (proposed)
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due)
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Algeria Local Elections: November 2022 (due – earlier elections possible)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Municipal Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: July 26, 2021
Last Updated: August 5, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 26, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: August 8, 2021
São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) holds a presidential runoff on August 8, 2021, following the first round on July 18, 2021. The current president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, is not running for a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.
In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI will face off against former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy.
In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.
Reuters (July 19, 2021): Sao Tome Presidential Run-Off to Pit Ex-PM Against Former Minister
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia has scheduled general elections for August 12, 2021. Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. However, there are fears that Lungu could try to rig the 2021 elections. More
Nicole Beardsworth, Nic Cheeseman, and O’Brien Kaaba, Mail and Guardian (July 26, 2021): Five thing to watch in the Zambian elections
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: October 10, 2021 (preceded by indirect legislative elections in the preceding months) POSTPONED – no new date set
Somalia was supposed to hold an indirect presidential election on February 8, 2021, following indirect parliamentary elections in December 2020. However, the elections have been delayed, and the term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believe that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. The parties reached a deal to hold the elections on October 10, 2021, but as is usually the case with Somalia, the date could change. More
Mohamed Kahiye, Voice of America (July 26, 2021): Somali Elections Delayed Again; No New Date Set
Chris Thomson, Foreign Brief (July 26, 2021): Voting to begin for Somalian Senate elections deemed critical to achieving political stability
Eric Schmitt, New York Times (July 23, 2021): The U.S. military strikes a Qaeda affiliate in Somalia for the second time in a week.
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. More
Gabriele Steinhauser, Wall Steet Journal (July 26, 2021 – podcast with transcript): Unrest, Covid and Economic Despair in South Africa
Linda Givetash, NBC News (July 23, 12021): Riots in South Africa have left people hungry — it’s the poorest who are worst hit
Reuters (July 23, 2021): South Africa’s Electoral Commission to seek to delay municipal vote
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
AFP (July 26, 2021): Man accused of trying to assassinate Malian president dies in custody
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
David Herbling, Bloomberg (July 27, 2021): Most Kenyans Disenchanted With Nation’s Direction, Survey Shows
Peter Kagwanja, The Citizen Tanzania (July 27, 2021): Divisive populism, weak institutions pose power threat
Andres Schipani, Financial Times (July 27, 2021): Kenya deal with UK aims to turn Nairobi into Africa’s financial hub
Patrick Gathara, Al Jazeera (July 24, 2021): For Kenya, electoral reform is a matter of life and death: If Kenya does not fix its electoral system, it is heading for another cycle of violence in the upcoming 2022 elections.
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays – the military has said it plans to rule the country for 18 months. More
RFI (July 24, 2021 – in French): Chad: Opposition dubious after the appointment of new African Union high representative
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is an absolute monarchy. The country does hold parliamentary elections, but the parliament does not actually have much power, and the elections are tightly controlled, without much choice for voters. In late June, a series of pro-democracy protests began, and they continue to date.
Tucker C. Toole, National Geographic (July 26, 2021): Africa’s last absolute monarchy is shaken, as protestors defy Eswatini’s king
Past Africa Elections
Nigeria, Local Elections in Lagos: July 24, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Ronke Idowu, Channels TV Nigeria (July 24, 2021): Lagos Local Government Elections In Photos
Ethiopia General Elections: June 21, 2021
Ethiopia held general elections on June 21, 2021, after several postponements. These elections took place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. More
AEI’s Critical Threats (July 21, 2021): Africa File: Ethiopia crisis spreads beyond Tigray
Côte d’Ivoire Parliamentary Elections: March 6, 2021 and Presidential Election: October 31, 2021
Côte d’Ivoire just completed a major election cycle that began in turbulent fashion when incumbent president Alasanne Ouattara sought and won a controversial third term. The opposition boycotted the presidential election. Protests followed, as well as arrests of opposition members.
However, during the March parliamentary elections, the situation calmed down a bit. Following discussions and the release of some opposition figures, the opposition participated in the legislative elections.
Former president Laurent Gbagbo cast a long shadow over the recent election cycle. He had been tried by the International Criminal Court following violence surrounding his refusal to accept his loss of the 2010 election. Gbagbo was ultimately acquitted, but an appeal against the acquittal kept him in Belgium until this year. He has now returned home. More
Sophie T. Rosenberg, World Politics Review (July 26, 2021): Gbagbo’s Return to Cote d’Ivoire Isn’t Healing Any Rifts Yet
Baudelaire Mieu and Benjamin Roger, The Africa Report (July 23, 2021): Côte d’Ivoire: Alassane Ouattara and Laurent Gbagbo to meet on 27 July
Benin Presidential Election: April 11, 2021
Benin held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. Incumbent Patrice Talon won a second term after largely keeping the opposition off the ballot. Previously a model democracy in the region, Benin has seen democratic decline since Talon’s election in 2016. More
Camille Malplat, AFP (July 23, 2021): Benin’s opposition goes into hiding
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: August 8, 2021
Zambia Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 12, 2021
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: July 24, 2021
Last Updated: August 8, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 24, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Saint Lucia Parliamentary Elections: July 26, 2021
Saint Lucia, Saint Lucia, a democracy with competitive elections and regular transfers of power, has scheduled general elections for July 26, after a slight delay due to COVID-19. The two main parties are the center-right United Workers Party, led by Prime Minister Allen Chastanet, and the main opposition social democratic Saint Lucia Labour Party. More
Jamaica Gleaner (July 24, 2021): Commonwealth group begins observation of elections in St Lucia
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: September 26, 2021 (delays possible)
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed.
Anthony Faiola, Washington Post (July 23, 2021): Haiti buries a president, but its long-term crisis lives on
Oliver Stuenkel, Carnegie Endowment (July 21, 2021): Haitians Should Be at the Center of Rebuilding Their Country
AFP (July 21, 2021): Haiti’s opposition, civil society distance themselves from new PM
Kejal Vyas and Juan Montes, Wall Street Journal (July 21, 2021): Haiti Inaugurates New Leader Two Weeks After President’s Assassination: Prime Minister Ariel Henry says his main goal is to organize elections to take place in 120 days; ‘I’m not afraid’
AP (July 19, 2021): New Haiti Leader With International Backing to Take Charge: Haiti’s elections minister says that interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph will step down in the wake of the July 7 assassination of President Jovenel Moise.
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
DW (July 25, 2021): Nicaragua: Another presidential contender arrested ahead of election: Opposition leader Noel Vidaurre became the seventh potential candidate to be arrested by President Daniel Ortega’s government ahead of Nicaragua’s November 7 election.
AFP (July 20, 2021): Nicaragua’s under-fire Ortega seeking fourth term in a row
AP (July 19, 2021): Nicaragua marks 1979 revolution date with opponents jailed
Argentina Provincial Elections Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections this fall, along with a few sets of provincial elections. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Rio Times (July 22, 2021): Argentine opposition and ruling party finalize lists of candidates for primary elections
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. The results of the primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation.
Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings, posing a challenge for his party’s candidate (who will be chosen in the July primary election). Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one third of the Constitutional Assembly. In the July 18 presidential primaries, center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Matthew Malinowski and Valentina Fuentes, Bloomberg (July 23, 2021): Center-Left Candidate Jumps Into Chile Presidential Race
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review (July 22, 2021): Chile’s Voters Tack Back to the Center
MercoPress (July 19, 2021): Underdogs emerge triumphant from Chile’s primary elections
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Reuters (July 25, 2021): Venezuela’s Maduro aims for dialogue with opposition in August
Drew Agren, Catholic News Service (July 23, 2021): Vatican official’s call for serious negotiations in Venezuela draws rebuke
Alex Vasquez, Bloomberg (July 23, 2021): Venezuela’s Opposition Is Open to New Round of Political Talks
Al Jazeera (July 20, 2021): UK government backs Guaido in Venezuela gold dispute: Release of nearly $2bn Venezuelan gold held by Bank of England hinges on who London recognises as the country’s leader.
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots in recent weeks. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Al Jazeera (July 22, 2021): Colombian authorities say ex-FARC behind recent Duque attack: Authorities say they arrested 10 former Colombian FARC rebels based in Venezuela responsible for two attacks last month.
Anderson Tepper, New York Times (July 22, 2021): ‘A Storm Waiting to Happen’: A Colombian Writer Watches His Home From Afar
AFP (July 20, 2021): Thousands protest as Colombia gov’t submits new tax reform plan
Inés San Martin, Crux (July 20, 2021): Latam bishops face unrest and division in Cuba, Colombia and Nicaragua
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some are searching for a third candidate to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Reuters (July 24, 2021): Brazilian protesters call for impeachment of Bolsonaro for 2nd time in a month
Terrence McCoy and Gabriela Sá Pessoa, Washington Post (July 23, 2021): Bolsonaro once said he’d stage a military takeover. Now Brazilians fear he could be laying the foundation for one.
Tom Phillips, The Guardian (July 23, 2021): Angry Brazilians dress as reptiles for their Covid jabs to mock Bolsonaro
Gabriel Stargardter and Lisandra Paraguassu, Reuters (July 22, 2021): ‘No banana republic’: Brazil’s politicos guarantee 2022 vote after bombshell story
Bryan Harris, Financial Times (July 19, 2021): Lula keeps policies a mystery on Brazil comeback trail: Former two-term president has emerged as serious challenger to Bolsonaro
Canada Parliamentary Elections: By October 16, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Canada is not due to hold federal elections until 2023, but snap elections could happen if the opposition manages to oust PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberal minority government in a vote of no confidence. Meanwhile, a number of provinces are holding elections this year.
Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Politico (July 21, 2021): All the reasons Trudeau should think twice about an election
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans began protesting in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Martha Kelner, Sky News (July 25, 2021): Cuba protests: More than 500 people still missing two weeks after anti-government protests, activists say
Tania Bruguera, Politico (July 21, 2021): ‘There’s No Turning Back’: A Cuban Dissident on What’s Really Happening in Cuba
Past Americas Elections
Peru Presidential Runoff: June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections for April 11, 2021. These elections are coming on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori is alleging fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Editorial Board, Washington Post (July 23, 2021): Opinion: Peru’s democracy survived a squeaker election. Will it outlast a far-left president?
Alexandra Graham, The National Interest (July 21, 2021): A Recurring Populist Impulse Serves to Damage Peru
Stefano Pozzebon, Karol Suarez and Jose Armijo, CNN (July 19, 2021): Peru’s electoral authority declares Pedro Castillo President-elect, 6 weeks after runoff
Mexico Legislative, Gubernatorial, and Local Elections: June 6, 2021
Mexico held high-stakes midterm legislative elections, as well as gubernatorial elections in 15 of Mexico’s 31 states, and local elections, on June 6, 2021. In total, more than 21,000 offices are at stake – the biggest elections in Mexico’s history.
These elections were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results will make it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
The Economist (July 24, 2021): Mexico’s middle class is struggling: First it was battered by the pandemic, now by the president
Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg (July 24, 2021): Mexican president proposes replacing OAS with new institution
AP (July 22, 2021): Mexico fines candidate’s party for role of influencer wife
Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post (July 21, 2021): How Mexico’s traditional political espionage went high-tech: Victims say the use of Pegasus spyware through 2017 had a chilling effect on journalists and human rights workers. The government says it halted the practice, but questions remain.
Guatemala General Elections: June 16 and August 11, 2019
Guatemala held general elections in 2019. These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Sofia Menchu, Reuters (July 24, 2021): Hundreds protest ouster of Guatemalan anti-graft crusader
Reuters (July 23, 2021): Guatemala attorney general removes head of anti-corruption unit
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Saint Lucia Parliamentary Elections: July 26, 2021
Argentina Salta Provincial Elections: August 15, 2021 (postponed from July 4, 2021)
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections, plus delayed constitutional referendum: September 26, 2021
Paraguay Municipal Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: July 23, 2021
Last Updated: August 3, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 23, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Macau is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, having reverted from Portuguese control to Chinese control in 1999. The main industry is gaming, with a casino sector seven times the size of that of Las Vegas. The legislature is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians, who hold 29 out of the 33 seats, with pro-democracy politicians holding the remaining four.
Most recently, pro-democracy candidates were banned from the upcoming elections, mirroring Hong Kong’s crackdown on democracy.
LUSA (July 23, 2021): Disqualified election candidates appeal in hope of ‘judicial independence’
Nelson Moura, Macau Business (July 22, 2021): Disqualifications of Legislative Assembly candidates not related to criticisms of local Gov’t, says Chief Executive
Nelson Moura, Macau Business (July 21, 2021): Electoral Affairs Commission rejects complaints filed by disqualified candidates
Japan General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021 (plus Hyogo Prefecture gubernatorial election on July 17).
After that, Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest in September. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Tobias Harris, Nikkei Asia (July 21, 2021): Japan’s ruling coalition is not as secure as it looks: Unpopular prime minister faces an increasingly united opposition
Eric Johnston, Japan Times (July 20, 2021): Tokyo poll result cements Yuriko Koike’s status as a political survivor
Phillip Y. Lipscy and Daniel M. Smith, Washington Post (July 19, 2021): Nobody can go to the Tokyo Olympics. So why is the government going ahead with them? The political stakes are high, as Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga must face voters in a general election this fall
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Rhoda Kwan, Hong Kong Free Press (July 23, 2021): Ousted Hong Kong legislator Dennis Kwok warns of ‘risks’ to int’l business from security law
Man Hoi Yan, Radio Free Asia (July 22, 2021): Hong Kong Police Arrest Five Over ‘Seditious’ Sheep in Childrens’ Books
Theodora Yu, Washington Pot (July 22, 2021): Hong Kong jails seven over notorious mob attack during 2019 protests
AP (July 22, 2021): London Mayor Issues Message of Support to Hong Kong Migrants: London’s mayor has sent a message of support to Hong Kong people fleeing China’s crackdown on democracy to seek a new life in the United Kingdom.
Phelim Kine, Politico (July 21, 2021): Hong Kong pro-democracy activists beg Congress for refugee status
Sri Lanka Provincial Elections: 2021
Sri Lanka plans to hold provincial elections in 2021. In the 2019 presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, brother of former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, won. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice.
AFP (July 19, 2021): Rajapaksa to seek second term as Sri Lanka crisis deepens
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi.
In addition, Uttar Pradesh held local elections on July 3.
Rahul Shrivastava and Dipu Rai, India Today (July 22, 2021): Presidential polls and beyond: Why Uttar Pradesh elections are crucial?
Sushant Singh, Foreign Policy (July 21, 2021): India’s Watergate Moment: A journalist hacked by Pegasus says he will survive, but Indian democracy may not.
Shoaib Daniyal, Scroll.in (July 20, 2021): Supreme Court, EC, Opposition: Spyware attack threatens pillars of India’s electoral democracy
Joanna Slater and Niha Masih, Washington Post (July 19, 2021): The spyware is sold to governments to fight terrorism. In India, it was used to hack journalists and others.
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Andrew Injoo Park, South China Morning Post (July 20, 2021): How South Korea’s 2022 presidential election could reshape its US-China balancing act
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Carlos Santamaria, GZERO (July 19, 2021): Thrilla in Manila: Duterte vs Pacquiao
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021.
Tensions with China are rising as Australia’s federal government has cancelled several Belt and Road deals. More
Sky News (July 23, 2021): Local government elections in NSW set to be postponed for a second year
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Ben Sokhean, Khmer Times (July 23, 2021): Polls timetable set: NEC outlines Commune Election calendar
Radio Free Asia (July 23, 2021): CNRP Activist Arrested After Returning to Cambodia to Start a Business
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections this summer, or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
Pankaj C. Kumar, The Star Malaysia (July 24, 2021): Malaysia needs a big reset button
Joseph Chinyong Liow and Ariel Tan, South China Morning Post (July 24, 2021): In Malaysia, what lies beneath the divorce of Umno and Muhyiddin’s Bersatu?
Joshua Kurlantzick, World Politics Review (July 23, 2021): Malaysia’s Political Crisis Is Dooming Its COVID-19 Response
Nepal Snap Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. More
Aneka Rebecca Rajbhandari and Raunab Singh Khatri, Nepali Times (July 23, 2021): China reacts to Nepal regime change: Chinese government and netizens are keeping careful tabs on recent political developments in Nepal
Kunal Purohit, South China Morning Post (July 21, 2021): Will Nepal’s new ‘pro-India’ prime minister hit reset on its China ties?
PTI (July 18, 2021): Nepal’s new PM Sher Bahadur Deuba wins vote of confidence in Parliament
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Vietnam Legislative Elections: May 23, 2021
Vietnam, a one-party communist state, held legislative elections on May 23, 2021. For the most part, only candidates from the Communist Party of Vietnam and those who support it are able to run. In addition, dissidents face arrest and assault. More
Stewart Rees, The Diplomat (July 23, 2021): In Vietnam, the Party’s Rolling Crackdown on Dissent Continues
Maldives Local Elections: April 10, 2021
Maldives held local elections for April 10, 2021, following a delay due to COVID-19. Voters will elect island, atoll, and city councils to three-year terms. The country was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
On May 7, a bomb blast hospitalized former president Mohamed Nasheed, one of the main architects of democracy in Maldives. The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. More
N Sathiya Moorthy, Observer Research Foundation (July 21, 2021): Maldives: Nasheed’s call to end extremists’ dominance in elections can cut both ways
Marwaan Macan-Markar, Nikkei Asia (July 22, 2021): Hate crime bill widens Islamic divisions in the Maldives: ’Irreligious’ or not? Debate splits ruling party, fuels instability in South Asia
Samoa General Elections: April 9, 2021
Samoa held general elections on April 9, 2021, and after a post-election roller coaster ride, a new prime minister has finally been inaugurated and approved by the courts. A new opposition party, Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST, “Faith in the one true God”), posed a new challenge to the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which has been in power since 1982. Ultimately, both FAST and HRPP got equal numbers of seats, with an independent MP breaking the tie and agreeing to support FAST. However, the plot continues to thicken as HRPP was given an additional female MP since the party did not meet its quota for women.
As a result of the deadlock, the prime minister has called new elections for May 21, but a court decided to block the new elections, reinstate the results, and overturn the decision to give HRPP an additional MP. As a result, FAST was declared the winner of the elections and Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa was sworn in as prime minister – the first woman to hold the office. A court ultimately confirmed her victory, ending the political crisis.
Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson and Kate Lyons, The Guardian (July 23, 2021): Samoa’s political crisis ends and first female prime minister installed after court ruling: Fiame Naomi Mata’afa was confirmed by Samoa’s court of appeal to be the country’s first female prime minister, ending the 22-year reign of the former leader
Marian Faa and Jordan Fennell, ABC News Australia (July 23, 2021): Samoa welcomes first female Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa following court ruling
Radio New Zealand (July 20, 2021): Samoan traditional systems remain strong through political crisis – Academic
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: July 22, 2021
Last Updated: July 31, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 22, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Rural Elections: July 25, 2021
Kazakhstan holds rural elections on July 25. For the first time, hundreds of villages will elect mayors directly. These follow legislative elections that took place January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature. More
Reuters (July 23, 2021): Kazakhstan to Directly Elect Hundreds of Village Mayors for First Time
Colleen Wood, The Foreign Policy Centre (July 22, 2021): Human rights and civil liberties in Kazakhstan: A matter of efficiency?
Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet (July 21, 2021): Kazakhstan: Activists tracked by Pegasus angered but not surprised
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia is due to hold parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia. Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates. More
Meduza (July 22, 2021): The State Duma’s jet-setter: Team Navalny publishes new investigation into the family wealth of parliamentary speaker Vyacheslav Volodin
Reuters (July 21, 2021): Russia extends house arrest of Kremlin critic Navalny’s spokesperson
Moscow Times (July 20, 2021): Which Kremlin Critics Have Fled Russia?
Masha Gessen, The New Yorker (July 19, 2021): Lyubov Sobol’s hope for Russia: With Alexey Navalny in prison, one of his closest aides is carrying on the lonely work of the opposition.
AP (July 18, 2021): Russia rights group linked to Navalny closes amid prosecution fears: Team 29 is the latest victim of Kremlin crackdown on organisations it considers ‘undesirable’
RFE/RL (July 18, 2021): Pussy Riot Member Leaves Russia Citing ‘Persecution’
Georgia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Georgia is due to hold local elections in October 2021, and they are particularly important because – as a result of a deal to resolve the political crisis following last year’s parliamentary elections – they could spark new parliamentary elections if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins less than 43 percent of the proportional vote. The political climate is tense, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout.
Most recently, an uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
Archil Gegeshidze and Mikheil Mirziashvili, Carnegie Europe (July 23, 2021): The Orthodox Church in Georgia’s Changing Society
Eric Lee, Moscow Times (July 21, 2021): It’s Time for Georgia to Choose Its Future
Tata Shoshiashvili, OC Media (July 21, 2021): Georgia’s ongoing epidemic of homophobic street violence
Institute for War and Peace Reporting (July 21, 2021): Georgia: Further Protests After Journalist Dies: Media workers demand immediate action over “green light for violence”
Agenda.ge (July 20, 2021): Reporters hold protest ahead of ruling party reveal of Tbilisi mayor candidate
David M. Herszenhorn, Politico (July 19, 2021): Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine see joint path to EU: Rebuking Russia, three presidents sign statement on EU integration.
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
Uzbekistan is holding a presidential election on October 24, 2021. Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate freely in the country. Although some had hoped that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev would face a serious challenger this year, that looks increasingly unlikely as would-be challengers are either being denied ballot access or dropping out. More
AKIpress (July 23, 2021): Presidential election campaign starts in Uzbekistan
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL (July 18, 2021): Eliminating Presidential Candidates In Central Asia
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Moldova held snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016. More
Madalin Necsutu, Euronews (July 23, 2021): Moldova’s new government has an old problem: Transnistria. Can it solve it?
Washington Post Editorial Board (July 20, 2021): Reformers just won a rare victory in Russia’s backyard. Biden should help them.
Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021
Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin.
Pashinyan became prime minister following the 2018 pro-democracy “Velvet Revolution.” However, he mostly maintained Armenia’s pro-Russia geopolitical stance, and that does not look likely to change in the near future.
Pablo Gonzalez, Voice of America (July 22, 2021): In Wake of Defeat and Upheaval, Armenia Deals with its War Wounds
Ani Avetisyan, OC Media (July 20, 2021): Robert Kocharyan refuses to sit as MP in Armenia’s parliament
Reuters (July 17, 2021): Armenian court upholds June election win for acting PM’s party
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests continue. More
Yuras Karmanau, AP (July 23, 2021): Belarus shuts more civil society groups in wide crackdown
Tanya Lokshina and Rachel Denber, Human Rights Watch (July 23, 2021): Belarus Authorities Launch Purge of Civic Groups
Doug Klain, Atlantic Council (July 21, 2021): Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on Belarus’ future and her place in it
Jennifer Hansler, CNN (July 20, 2021): Belarus opposition leader says she gave sanctions list to Biden administration
Reuters (July 19, 2021): On Washington visit, Belarus opposition leader asks U.S. for more help
RFE/RL (July 19, 2021): More Belarusian Activists Sentenced To Lengthy Prison Terms As Crackdown Intensifies
Meduza (July 16, 2021): Then came the counter-revolution: Political Analyst Artyom Shraibman breaks down the latest wave of mass repressions in Belarus
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Kazakhstan Village Elections: July 25, 2021
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
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