July 30, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Merdeka (Independence) Square in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Malaysia will likely hold snap elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Haakon S. Krohn (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Macau is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, having reverted from Portuguese control to Chinese control in 1999. The main industry is gaming, with a casino sector seven times the size of that of Las Vegas. The legislature is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians, who hold 29 out of the 33 seats, with pro-democracy politicians holding the remaining four.
Most recently, pro-democracy candidates were banned from the upcoming elections, mirroring Hong Kong’s crackdown on democracy.
Macau Business (July 31, 2021): Top court rejects disqualified candidates appeals
LUSA (July 31, 2021): Top court “shreds Joint Declaration by excluding candidates” – Defence lawyer argues
Japan General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest in September. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Kaname Umeno, Nikkei Asia (July 31, 2021): Japan’s ‘post-Olympics’ curse looms large for embattled Suga: Prime ministers have stepped down each time Japan hosted Games
Tobias Harris, Politico (July 25, 2021): Japan’s Leaders Worry the Olympics Could Hurt Their Global Brand. They’re Wrong. Shinzo Abe hoped the Tokyo Olympics would show that Japan is a respected leader on the world stage. Turns out, it already is.
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Eric Cheung, CNN (July 30, 2021): Hong Kong police arrest man for booing Chinese national anthem while watching Olympics
Austin Ramzy, New York Times (July 30, 2021): Hong Kong Protester Is Sentenced to 9 Years in First Security Law Case
Timothy McLaughlin, The Atlantic (July 27, 2021): The End of Free Speech in Hong Kong: The conviction of a pro-democracy activist is a watershed moment.
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press (July 25, 2021): Can Beijing find some docile democrats before Hong Kong’s election season kicks off?
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
AFP (July 31, 2021): Malaysia: Hundreds take to the streets in anti-government protest: Demonstrators demand embattled PM Muhyiddin Yassin resign over the handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Samuel Aubrey, Borneo Post (July 31, 2021): Dr Sim: No election in Sarawak until after Feb 2, 2022 due to Emergency
Reuters (July 30, 2021): Malaysia extends emergency rule in Sarawak state to stop polls
Eileen Ng, AP (July 30, 2021): Malaysian PM postpones Parliament, avoids no-confidence vote
Eileen Ng, The Diplomat (July 29, 2021): Malaysia PM Under Pressure to Quit After Stern Royal Rebuke
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (July 26, 2021): Malaysia’s Political Crisis Is Dooming Its COVID-19 Response
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi.
In addition, Uttar Pradesh held local elections on July 3.
Amy Kazmin, Financial Times (July 28, 2021): Spyware revelations are a crucial moment for Indian democracy
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Sam Kim, Bloomberg (July 28, 2021): Soaring Home Prices Stoke Anger Against Korea’s President
Jung Da-min, Korea Times (July 28, 2021): Economy, fairness to be key issues in presidential election
Jinwoo Kim, East Asia Forum (July 27, 2021): Does South Korea’s youngest political boss have the chops to lead?
William Gallo, Voice of America (July 27, 2021): North Korea Resumes Dialogue with South. What Happens Next?
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Feliz Solomon, Wall Street Journal (July 30, 2021): Philippine Leader Reverses Course, Keeps U.S. Defense Pact: President Rodrigo Duterte said he would scrap the agreement in 2020 after the U.S. Senate condemned alleged extrajudicial killings as part of an antidrug campaign
Jun Endo, Nikkei Asia (July 29, 2021): Manila mayor turns heads in Philippine presidential race: Moreno earns praise from Duterte, but stays neutral toward incumbent
CNN Philippines (July 26, 2021): Duterte denies receiving help from China to win 2016 elections
Reuters (July 26, 2021): Philippines’ Duterte taunts ICC, saying war on drugs far from over
The Economist (July 26, 2021): Rodrigo Duterte hopes to outlast his term as Philippine president: He stands down next year, but will be no lame duck waddling quietly off
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Radio Free Asia (July 29, 2021): Cambodia Jails Opposition Figure as US Congress Takes Step Toward Sanctions
Ben Sohkean, Khmer Times (July 27, 2021): End of the road: Supreme Court dissolves three parties before elections
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Fiji is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. In 2006, Josaia Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama seized power in a coup. Since then, the country has held several sets of elections that Bainimarama has won. Despite concerns about media freedom and political space for the opposition, some observers have deemed the elections credible – Bainimarama has at least brought political stability, making him popular with many Fijians.
Dominic O’Sullivan, The Conversation (July 28, 2021): Fiji’s other crisis: away from the COVID emergency, political dissent can still get you arrested
Radio New Zealand (July 27, 2021): Former Fiji prime minister detained by police over Land Bill comments
Kelvin Anthony, The Guardian (July 26, 2021): Nine Fiji opposition MPs arrested over criticism of land bill
Nepal Snap Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. More
Human Rights Watch (July 29, 2021): Nepal: New Government Should Address Rights
Anil Giri, Kathmandu Post (July 28, 2021): US interest, Nepal foreign policy under Beijing’s watch with changes in Kathmandu: China would want to make a push for implementation of BRI projects, just as Deuba government prepares to move the American MCC programme forward, observers say.
Arun Budhathoki and Bindesh Dahal, The Diplomat (July 28, 2021): Nepal’s Cautious Approach to the Tibetan Question
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
On May 7, a bomb blast hospitalized former president Mohamed Nasheed, one of the main architects of democracy in Maldives. The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. More
Mohamed Sharuhaan, AP (July 26, 2021): Police: IS sympathizers behind attempt on ex-Maldives leader
Meera Srinivasan, The Hindu (July 26, 2021): Solih asks Maldivians to rise against extremism
Thailand, Bangkok Local Elections and Referendum: TBD
Thai officials have said they will schedule elections soon for various types of local elections (such as Bangkok city council). These follow provincial elections that took place in December 2020 and municipal elections in March 2021.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
David Hutt, DW (July 30, 2021): Thailand moves to strengthen EU ties amid US-China rivalry
Tommy Walker, Voice of America (July 26, 2021): Anti-Government Protests Persist in Thailand Despite Record COVID-19 Cases
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Samoa General Elections: April 9, 2021
Samoa held general elections on April 9, 2021, and after a post-election roller coaster ride, a new prime minister has finally been inaugurated and approved by the courts. A new opposition party, Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST, “Faith in the one true God”), posed a new challenge to the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which has been in power since 1982.
FAST ultimately won the knife-edge election, but the former prime minister refused to concede and the ensuing political standoff lasted more than three months. Following a court decision, FAST was declared the winner of the elections and Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa was sworn in as prime minister – the first woman to hold the office.
Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson and Maina Vai, The Guardian (July 30, 2021): ‘Women have not been able to hold these positions’: Samoa’s first female PM gets down to the job
Reuters (July 30, 2021): New Samoa PM cancels USD $100 million China-funded port
Patricia A. O’Brien, The Conversation (July 27, 2021): Samoa’s first female leader has made history — now she faces a challenging future at home and abroad
Natasha Frost, New York Times (July 26, 2021): Ending Bitter 3-Month Standoff, Samoa’s Leader Concedes Election Defeat
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
Channel News Asia (July 30, 2021): Myanmar democracy movement moves out of jailed Aung San Suu Kyi’s shadow
Simrin Sirur, The Print India (July 28, 2021): ‘I believe in democracy, that shouldn’t be a crime’ — Myanmar refugees hope for junta’s fall
The Irrawaddy (July 27, 2021): Myanmar Junta Officially Annuls NLD’s 2020 Election Win
Jasmine Chia and Scott Singer, The Diplomat (July 23, 2021): How the Milk Tea Alliance Is Remaking Myanmar: Why the social media-based movement, and not ASEAN, offers a vision for a democratic and federalist Myanmar
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 11, 2020
Taiwan, a robust democracy, held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Lev Nachman and Ryan Hass, Brookings Institution (July 30, 2021): Examining the role of cross-Strait relations in Taiwan’s politics
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: August 2, 2021
Last Updated: August 11, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
August 2, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia has scheduled general elections for August 12, 2021. Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. However, there are fears that Lungu could try to rig the 2021 elections. More
Taonga Clifford Mitimingi and Patrick McHale, Bloomberg (August 1, 2021): Zambian President Deploys Army to Quell Violence Before Vote
Peter Fabricius, Daily Maverick (August 1, 2021): Cellular signals: Dismay over possibility of internet blackout during Zambia’s August general election
Committee to Protect Journalists (July 30, 2021): Zambian opposition supporters assault reporter from state media
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations (July 29, 2021): Warning Signs Appear Ahead of Zambian Elections
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021 (delay possible)
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021, although a delay is possible. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. These are taking place in the wake of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. Riots in the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in July 2021 left more than three hundred dead and led to thousands of arrests – the worst political violence South Africa has seen since the end of Apartheid. More
Elliot Smith, CNBC (August 2, 2021): South Africa unrest and Covid measures are starting to derail its economic recovery
Siphiwe Dube, News24 South Africa (August 1, 2021): South Africa needs to revisit the emergence of black conservatism
Ian Jennings, National Interest (August 1, 2021): South Africa’s Insurrection Is Greater Than Jacob Zuma
Alan Shaw-Krivosh, Foreign Brief (July 31, 2021): South African voter registration weekend postponed
Moeletsi Mbeki, The Africa Report (July 29, 2021): How South Africa’s elites are stunting the economy and democracy
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by several state elections in 2022, and general elections in 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections in February 2023, but some states are due to hold elections before that, including Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and economic hub.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Rinu Oduala, Freedom House (August 1, 2021): Nigeria: Young voices demand change
Matthew T. Page, Carnegie Endowment (July 28, 2021): Fake Civil Society: The Rise of Pro-Government NGOs in Nigeria
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Africanews (July 31, 2021): Malian PM Choguel Kokalla Maïga presents 2021-2022 action plan
Reuters (July 30, 2021): Mali’s interim government has elections plan in light of ‘fixed timeline’ for transition: PM
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Sunguta West, Jamestown Foundation (July 30, 2021): U.S. Troops to Combat al-Shabaab in Kenya Amid Mandera County’s Security Crisis
Chad General Elections: Between June and September 2022 (proposed, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, who seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays. The junta has promised to hold the elections soon, proposing between June and September 2022. More
Nadia Chahed, Andalou Agency (July 31 2021 – in French): Chad: Calendar for transition unveiled
AFP (July 29, 2021): Several Hundred Protest Chad Junta
South Sudan Elections: December 2022 (planned)
South Sudan plans to hold elections in December 2022, the first since independence in 2011. Salva Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. Additional election delays are possible.
Jake Wheeler, Washington Post (July 29, 2021): Opinion: Ten years after independence, South Sudan must return to Garang’s vision
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2023. These will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. However, democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe.
Dewa Mavhinga, Human Rights Watch (August 2, 2021): Still No Justice for Zimbabwe’s 2018 Post-Election Violence
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is an absolute monarchy. The country does hold parliamentary elections, but the parliament does not actually have much power, and the elections are tightly controlled, without much choice for voters. In late June, a series of pro-democracy protests began, and they continue to date.
Peter Fabricius, Daily Maverick (July 29, 2021): Royal crackdown: European Union condemns arrest of two Eswatini MPs as government hunts for the third
Cebelihle Mbuyisa, The Guardian (July 26, 2021 – video): The last king of Eswatini? Reporting on protests in Africa’s last absolute monarchy
Past Africa Elections
Ethiopia General Elections: June 21, 2021
Ethiopia held general elections on June 21, 2021, after several postponements. These elections took place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. More
Arminka Helić, Politico (August 2, 2021): In Ethiopia, echoes of Yugoslavia: We’ve seen this story before. This time we should make sure it has a different ending.
Côte d’Ivoire Parliamentary Elections: March 6, 2021 and Presidential Election: October 31, 2021
Côte d’Ivoire just completed a major election cycle that began in turbulent fashion when incumbent president Alasanne Ouattara sought and won a controversial third term. The opposition boycotted the presidential election. Protests followed, as well as arrests of opposition members.
However, during the March parliamentary elections, the situation calmed down a bit. Following discussions and the release of some opposition figures, the opposition participated in the legislative elections.
Former president Laurent Gbagbo cast a long shadow over the recent election cycle. He had been tried by the International Criminal Court following violence surrounding his refusal to accept his loss of the 2010 election. Gbagbo was ultimately acquitted, but an appeal against the acquittal kept him in Belgium until this year. He has now returned home. More
France24 (July 28, 2021 – video): As rivals Ouattara & Gbagbo meet, is Ivory Coast on a path towards reconciliation?
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Runoff: August 8, 2021
Zambia Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 12, 2021
Somalia Indirect Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2021
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: July 31, 2021
Last Updated: August 16, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 31, 2021 (Updated August 2, 2021)
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Mexican president Andrés Manuél López Obrador (AMLO) in 2013. AMLO backed Mexico’s August 1 referendum that ultimately only garnered 7 percent turnout. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Eneas De Troya (CC BY 2.0)
Upcoming Americas Elections
Mexico Referendum: August 1, 2021
Mexico held a referendum on prosecuting former presidents on August 1, although many critics have dismissed it as pointless political theatre. Turnout was less than 7 percent, meaning the results are not binding.
This follows high-stakes midterm elections, which were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results will make it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
Carlos Santamaria, GZERO (August 2, 2021): Mexico’s corruption referendum eye-roll
Juan Montes, Wall Street Journal (August 2, 2021): Mexico Referendum on Former Leaders Has Low Turnout
Kevin Sieff and Alejandra Ibarra Chaoul, Washington Post (July 31, 2021): Mexicans will vote on whether to prosecute former officials. Is it transitional justice or political theater?
Denise Dresser, Americas Quarterly (July 28, 2021): Mexico’s Farcical Referendum
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: September 26, 2021 (delays possible)
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed.
Natalie Musumeci and John Haltiwanger, Business Insider (July 30, 2021): Haitian first lady Martine Moïse says she’s considering running for president after her husband was assassinated
AP (July 28, 2021): Haiti’s New Pm Pledges To Hold Elections Soon After Slaying
Jim Wyss, Bloomberg (July 27, 2021): How a Power Struggle in Haiti Preceded President’s Assassination
Editorial Board, Washington Post (July 27, 2021): Haiti needs elections — and outside forces to make them safe
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
AP (July 29, 2021): With Turmoil at Home, More Nicaraguans Flee to the US
Al Jazeera (July 28, 2021): Nicaragua opposition names presidential ticket to take on Ortega
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Jorge Fontevecchia, Buenos Aires Times (July 30, 2021): Miguel Ángel Pichetto: ‘Argentina’s true debate is between capitalism and ideologies glorifying poverty’
Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg (July 28, 2021): Argentine Government Speeds Up Money Printing Ahead of Election
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Benedict Mander, Financial Times (August 2, 2021): Chile’s social upheaval leaves presidential race wide open: Newly elected left-leaning constituent assembly holds huge sway in fragmented contest
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Tim Padgett, WLRN Miami (July 27, 2021): Maduro Wants Venezuela Talks With Opposition In Mexico Next Month
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some are searching for a third candidate to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Reuters (July 29, 2021): Brazil’s Bolsonaro escalates rhetoric over electoral fraud
Bryan Harris, Financial Times (July 28, 2021): Vaccine scandals lay bare Brazil’s enduring graft problem: Bolsonaro’s popularity is falling as corruption allegations threaten to swamp his administration
Canada Parliamentary Elections: By October 16, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Canada is not due to hold federal elections until 2023, but snap elections could happen if the opposition manages to oust PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberal minority government in a vote of no confidence. Meanwhile, a number of provinces are holding elections this year.
Steve Scherer, Reuters (July 28, 2021): Canada’s Trudeau to gamble on vaccinations, economic rebound in likely September snap vote
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans began protesting in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Jorge Felipe-Gonzalez, The Atlantic (July 31, 2021): I Watched Cuba Crumble From the Inside
Past Americas Elections
Saint Lucia Parliamentary Elections: July 26, 2021
Saint Lucia, Saint Lucia, a democracy with competitive elections and regular transfers of power, held general elections on July 26, after a slight delay due to COVID-19. The social democratic Saint Lucia Labour Party defeated the incumbent center-right United Workers Party and will form the next government, ousting former Prime Minister Allen Chastanet. More
Saint Kitts and Nevis Observer (July 28, 2021): St. Lucia Labour Party Seals Big Election Win
Guardian Trinidad and Tobago (July 27, 2021): CARICOM Observer Mission commends free and fair Saint Lucia election poll despite pandemic
Peru Presidential Runoff: June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections for April 11, 2021. These elections are coming on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori is alleging fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Andrea Moncada, Americas Quarterly (August 2, 2021): Is Pedro Castillo’s Presidency Already Doomed?
Al Jazeera (August 1, 2021): Peru protesters rally against Pedro Castillo’s new government: Protesters decry the new president’s decision to appoint hardliner Guido Bellido as prime minister.
Marco Aquino, Reuters (July 31, 2021): Peru’s Castillo names moderate leftist as finance minister in olive branch to markets
The Economist (July 31, 2021): Peru’s left-wing new president pushes for a new constitution: But it remains unclear how radical Pedro Castillo can be
Michael Stott, Financial Times (July 30, 2021): Peru’s new president has plunged it into instant political crisis: Pedro Castillo’s nomination of leftwing radicals for cabinet posts shows he is no mood to compromise
Guatemala General Elections: June 16 and August 11, 2019
Guatemala held general elections in 2019. These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Reuters (July 30, 2021): In Guatemala thousands protest, demand president’s resignation: Protesters lit fires and blocked roads to demand the resignation of President Alejandro Giammattei, after the firing of a well-known anti-corruption prosecutor
Global Americans (July 30, 2021): In blow to anti-corruption efforts in Guatemala, prosecutor Juan Francisco Sandoval removed by Attorney General
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Saint Lucia Parliamentary Elections: July 26, 2021
Argentina Salta Provincial Elections: August 15, 2021 (postponed from July 4, 2021)
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections, plus delayed constitutional referendum: September 26, 2021
Paraguay Municipal Elections: October 10, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: July 30, 2021
Last Updated: August 14, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 30, 2021
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Macau is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, having reverted from Portuguese control to Chinese control in 1999. The main industry is gaming, with a casino sector seven times the size of that of Las Vegas. The legislature is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians, who hold 29 out of the 33 seats, with pro-democracy politicians holding the remaining four.
Most recently, pro-democracy candidates were banned from the upcoming elections, mirroring Hong Kong’s crackdown on democracy.
Macau Business (July 31, 2021): Top court rejects disqualified candidates appeals
LUSA (July 31, 2021): Top court “shreds Joint Declaration by excluding candidates” – Defence lawyer argues
Japan General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. These come on the heels of Tokyo Assembly elections, in which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) did not win a majority. Before the elections, the assembly was dominated by the Tomin First party, founded by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who used to belong to LDP.
In addition, Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces an LDP leadership contest in September. The elections will come on the heels of the Tokyo Olympics, which are controversial among Japanese voters.
Kaname Umeno, Nikkei Asia (July 31, 2021): Japan’s ‘post-Olympics’ curse looms large for embattled Suga: Prime ministers have stepped down each time Japan hosted Games
Tobias Harris, Politico (July 25, 2021): Japan’s Leaders Worry the Olympics Could Hurt Their Global Brand. They’re Wrong. Shinzo Abe hoped the Tokyo Olympics would show that Japan is a respected leader on the world stage. Turns out, it already is.
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Eric Cheung, CNN (July 30, 2021): Hong Kong police arrest man for booing Chinese national anthem while watching Olympics
Austin Ramzy, New York Times (July 30, 2021): Hong Kong Protester Is Sentenced to 9 Years in First Security Law Case
Timothy McLaughlin, The Atlantic (July 27, 2021): The End of Free Speech in Hong Kong: The conviction of a pro-democracy activist is a watershed moment.
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press (July 25, 2021): Can Beijing find some docile democrats before Hong Kong’s election season kicks off?
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections and Sarawak State Elections: To be called shortly after the COVID-19 state of emergency ends
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Specifically, Sarawak is due to hold state elections in August (likely will be delayed), or very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
AFP (July 31, 2021): Malaysia: Hundreds take to the streets in anti-government protest: Demonstrators demand embattled PM Muhyiddin Yassin resign over the handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Samuel Aubrey, Borneo Post (July 31, 2021): Dr Sim: No election in Sarawak until after Feb 2, 2022 due to Emergency
Reuters (July 30, 2021): Malaysia extends emergency rule in Sarawak state to stop polls
Eileen Ng, AP (July 30, 2021): Malaysian PM postpones Parliament, avoids no-confidence vote
Eileen Ng, The Diplomat (July 29, 2021): Malaysia PM Under Pressure to Quit After Stern Royal Rebuke
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (July 26, 2021): Malaysia’s Political Crisis Is Dooming Its COVID-19 Response
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi.
In addition, Uttar Pradesh held local elections on July 3.
Amy Kazmin, Financial Times (July 28, 2021): Spyware revelations are a crucial moment for Indian democracy
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Sam Kim, Bloomberg (July 28, 2021): Soaring Home Prices Stoke Anger Against Korea’s President
Jung Da-min, Korea Times (July 28, 2021): Economy, fairness to be key issues in presidential election
Jinwoo Kim, East Asia Forum (July 27, 2021): Does South Korea’s youngest political boss have the chops to lead?
William Gallo, Voice of America (July 27, 2021): North Korea Resumes Dialogue with South. What Happens Next?
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, has been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan.
Duterte has made moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office, but has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Feliz Solomon, Wall Street Journal (July 30, 2021): Philippine Leader Reverses Course, Keeps U.S. Defense Pact: President Rodrigo Duterte said he would scrap the agreement in 2020 after the U.S. Senate condemned alleged extrajudicial killings as part of an antidrug campaign
Jun Endo, Nikkei Asia (July 29, 2021): Manila mayor turns heads in Philippine presidential race: Moreno earns praise from Duterte, but stays neutral toward incumbent
CNN Philippines (July 26, 2021): Duterte denies receiving help from China to win 2016 elections
Reuters (July 26, 2021): Philippines’ Duterte taunts ICC, saying war on drugs far from over
The Economist (July 26, 2021): Rodrigo Duterte hopes to outlast his term as Philippine president: He stands down next year, but will be no lame duck waddling quietly off
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Radio Free Asia (July 29, 2021): Cambodia Jails Opposition Figure as US Congress Takes Step Toward Sanctions
Ben Sohkean, Khmer Times (July 27, 2021): End of the road: Supreme Court dissolves three parties before elections
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Fiji is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. In 2006, Josaia Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama seized power in a coup. Since then, the country has held several sets of elections that Bainimarama has won. Despite concerns about media freedom and political space for the opposition, some observers have deemed the elections credible – Bainimarama has at least brought political stability, making him popular with many Fijians.
Dominic O’Sullivan, The Conversation (July 28, 2021): Fiji’s other crisis: away from the COVID emergency, political dissent can still get you arrested
Radio New Zealand (July 27, 2021): Former Fiji prime minister detained by police over Land Bill comments
Kelvin Anthony, The Guardian (July 26, 2021): Nine Fiji opposition MPs arrested over criticism of land bill
Nepal Snap Elections: Early 2023 (due)
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. More
Human Rights Watch (July 29, 2021): Nepal: New Government Should Address Rights
Anil Giri, Kathmandu Post (July 28, 2021): US interest, Nepal foreign policy under Beijing’s watch with changes in Kathmandu: China would want to make a push for implementation of BRI projects, just as Deuba government prepares to move the American MCC programme forward, observers say.
Arun Budhathoki and Bindesh Dahal, The Diplomat (July 28, 2021): Nepal’s Cautious Approach to the Tibetan Question
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
On May 7, a bomb blast hospitalized former president Mohamed Nasheed, one of the main architects of democracy in Maldives. The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. More
Mohamed Sharuhaan, AP (July 26, 2021): Police: IS sympathizers behind attempt on ex-Maldives leader
Meera Srinivasan, The Hindu (July 26, 2021): Solih asks Maldivians to rise against extremism
Thailand, Bangkok Local Elections and Referendum: TBD
Thai officials have said they will schedule elections soon for various types of local elections (such as Bangkok city council). These follow provincial elections that took place in December 2020 and municipal elections in March 2021.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
David Hutt, DW (July 30, 2021): Thailand moves to strengthen EU ties amid US-China rivalry
Tommy Walker, Voice of America (July 26, 2021): Anti-Government Protests Persist in Thailand Despite Record COVID-19 Cases
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Samoa General Elections: April 9, 2021
Samoa held general elections on April 9, 2021, and after a post-election roller coaster ride, a new prime minister has finally been inaugurated and approved by the courts. A new opposition party, Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST, “Faith in the one true God”), posed a new challenge to the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which has been in power since 1982.
FAST ultimately won the knife-edge election, but the former prime minister refused to concede and the ensuing political standoff lasted more than three months. Following a court decision, FAST was declared the winner of the elections and Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa was sworn in as prime minister – the first woman to hold the office.
Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson and Maina Vai, The Guardian (July 30, 2021): ‘Women have not been able to hold these positions’: Samoa’s first female PM gets down to the job
Reuters (July 30, 2021): New Samoa PM cancels USD $100 million China-funded port
Patricia A. O’Brien, The Conversation (July 27, 2021): Samoa’s first female leader has made history — now she faces a challenging future at home and abroad
Natasha Frost, New York Times (July 26, 2021): Ending Bitter 3-Month Standoff, Samoa’s Leader Concedes Election Defeat
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
Channel News Asia (July 30, 2021): Myanmar democracy movement moves out of jailed Aung San Suu Kyi’s shadow
Simrin Sirur, The Print India (July 28, 2021): ‘I believe in democracy, that shouldn’t be a crime’ — Myanmar refugees hope for junta’s fall
The Irrawaddy (July 27, 2021): Myanmar Junta Officially Annuls NLD’s 2020 Election Win
Jasmine Chia and Scott Singer, The Diplomat (July 23, 2021): How the Milk Tea Alliance Is Remaking Myanmar: Why the social media-based movement, and not ASEAN, offers a vision for a democratic and federalist Myanmar
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 11, 2020
Taiwan, a robust democracy, held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Lev Nachman and Ryan Hass, Brookings Institution (July 30, 2021): Examining the role of cross-Strait relations in Taiwan’s politics
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: January 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: July 29, 2021
Last Updated: August 6, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 29, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia is due to hold parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia. Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates. More
Robert Coalson and Olga Beshlei, RFE/RL (July 30, 2021): Increasingly, Russian Activists Find Themselves Sentenced To Compulsory Medical Treatment
Meduza (July 29, 2021): Siberian shaman Alexander Gabyshev was sent for compulsory medical treatment. Could this happen to other opposition figures in Russia?
Ann M. Simmons, Wall Street Journal (July 28, 2021): After Navalny, Challenging Russia’s Putin Is Getting Even Harder
Oliver Carroll, The Independent (July 26, 2021): Anti-Putin candidate on hunger strike after being ‘deliberately imprisoned in hospital’
AFP (July 26, 2021): Russia blocks 49 Navalny-linked websites: aide
Georgia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Georgia is due to hold local elections in October 2021, and they are particularly important because – as a result of a deal to resolve the political crisis following last year’s parliamentary elections – they could spark new parliamentary elections if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins less than 43 percent of the proportional vote. However, the ruling Georgian Dream scrapped the agreement in July. The political climate is tense, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout.
Most recently, an uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
Catherine Feore, EU Reporter (July 29, 2021): Georgian Dream turns to nightmare
Giorgi Lomsadze, Eurasianet (July 28, 2021): Georgian ruling party walks out on critical political agreement: The deal, brokered by the European Union, was meant to keep the political crisis in the key Western ally from reaching a fatal stage. Now the political prospects for the country are uncertain.
Civil.ge (July 28, 2021): Georgian Dream ‘Rejected’ Euro-Atlantic Course, Civil Society Organizations Say
JAMnews (July 25, 2021): Georgian opposition nominates two coalition candidates in Tbilisi for municipal elections
Agenda.ge (July 25, 2021): NGOs condemn homophobic posters against opposition, media in Tbilisi
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Kyrgyzstan’s leader has proposed re-running the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Bermet Talant, Eurasianet (July 29, 2021): Kyrgyz parliament sneaks through “fake news” law with president’s blessing
Jackie Abramian, Forbes (July 29, 2021): Human Rights Defender Tolekan Ismailova Stands Against Kyrgyzstan’s Patriarchal System
AKI Press (July 28, 2021): Kyrgyzstan may have parliamentary elections in late November
RFE/RL (July 27, 2021): Arrested Kyrgyz Opposition Party Leader Moldokmatov Starts Hunger Strike
Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (July 27, 2021): Kyrgyz Politician Arrested for Involvement in October Unrest Begins Hunger Strike
Past Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Rural Elections: July 25, 2021
Kazakhstan held rural elections on July 25. For the first time, hundreds of villages will elect mayors directly. These follow legislative elections that took place January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature. More
Colin Stevens, EU Reporter (July 27, 2021): Voters go to rural polls for first time in Kazakhstan
Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Moldova held snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016. More
RFE/RL (July 30, 2021): Moldovan President Nominates Ex-Finance Minister As Prime Minister
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (July 29, 2021): Moldova’s Pro-European Victors Face Huge Challenge in Delivering Reforms
Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021
Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin.
Pashinyan became prime minister following the 2018 pro-democracy “Velvet Revolution.” However, he mostly maintained Armenia’s pro-Russia geopolitical stance, and that does not look likely to change in the near future.
Denis Cenusa, New Eastern Europe (July 26, 2021): Armenia and Moldova after snap elections: fewer oligarchs, more reforms?
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests continue. More
Melinda Haring, The National Interest (July 30, 2021): What Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s U.S. Visit Means for Belarus
Elena Barysheva, DW (July 30, 2021): How Russian money keeps Belarus afloat
Laura King, Los Angeles Times (July 28, 2021): Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya says democracy will prevail
Brian Whitmore, Atlantic Council (July 28, 2021): Concerns mount over Russia-Belarus military exercises
David L. Stern and Robyn Dixon, Washington Post (July 24, 2021): Belarus once cultivated high-tech talent. Now those people are fleeing political crackdowns.
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: July 28, 2021
Last Updated: August 6, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
July 28, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 and Local Elections: October 17, 2021
Estonia – a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy – will hold an indirect presidential election starting on August 30 and local elections on October 17, 2021. In Estonia’s parliamentary system, the president plays a largely ceremonial and representative role, with no executive power. The Riigikogu (parliament) elects the president. Incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid is eligible to run for another term.
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister. More
ERR News (July 28, 2021): MEP: Presidential election process neglecting importance of foreign policy
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. More
Alf Ole Ask, EU Observer (July 26, 2021): Will Erna Solberg be the Nordic Merkel – winning a third term?
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens have taken SPD’s place as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world. However, despite his unpopularity, Armin Laschet remains the favorite to succeed Merkel as chancellor. Nonetheless, German voters have a real choice and Baerbock, who comes from the party’s “realo” (moderate) wing as opposed to the “fundi” (radical) wing – has an actual shot at the top job. More
Jan Bielicki, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (July 28, 2021): Merkel and beyond
Stefan Nicola, Bloomberg (July 28, 2021): How Germany’s Greens Moved From Fringe to Contenders
DW (July 28, 2021): Germany: Jewish leader warns against cooperation with AfD
Guy Chazan, Financial Times (July 28, 2021): German liberals eye government role as electoral prospects improve
Patrick Donahue and Henry Meyer, Bloomberg (July 27, 2021): Kremlin Targets Germany’s Green Candidate Over Anti-Moscow Stance
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Portugal holds local elections on September 26. The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election and was re-elected in January 2021. More
The Portugal News/LUSA (July 26, 2021): António Costa says election campaigning will be hard
Italy, Mayoral Elections in Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and other cities and regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Italy is due to hold regional elections in Calabria in the south, as well as mayoral elections in several major cities, later this year. The next general elections aren’t due until June 2023, but as is ever the case with Italy, snap elections are possible. However, in January 2021, the government collapsed after former prime minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his support. Former European Central Bank chief Mario “Super Mario” Draghi formed a government in February 2021.
Ariel David, Haaretz (July 29, 2021): What’s Fueling the Shocking Rise of Italy’s Far Right?
Jason Horowitz, New York Times (July 29, 2021): Italy’s Mr. Fix-It Tries to Fix the Country’s Troubled Justice System — and Its Politics, Too
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
North Macedonia is due to hold local elections in October 2021. These follow parliamentary elections in July 2020. Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up). The country’s politics are fragmented and fractious. The 2020 elections were extremely close, but ultimately PM Zoran Zaev and his Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) were able to once again form a government with the backing of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the main ethnic Albanian party (ethnic Albanians make up about a quarter of the population).
SDSM also controls most of the municipalities heading into the upcoming local elections, having beaten the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE in a majority of municipalities and ousting the VMRO-DMPNE mayor of Skopje.
Sinisa Jakov Marusic, Balkan Insight (July 29, 2021): North Macedonia MPs Adopt ‘Red Lines’ in Bulgaria Talks
AP (July 26, 2021): North Macedonia: 4 jailed over 2017 parliament attack
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 2022 (due)
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron, although the far-right Marine Le Pen plans to mount a vigorous campaign.
Agnés Poirier, London Evening Standard (July 29, 2021): Can Emmanuel Macron turn the tide?
The Economist (July 29, 2021): Why France’s Provence and the Riviera are so right-wing
Michele Barbero, Foreign Policy (July 27, 2021): Macron’s Big Vaccination Gamble: The French president is making vaccines mandatory for many—sparking fresh protests ahead of next year’s elections
Linda Gross and David Keohane, Financial Times (July 25, 2021): France’s north takes political centre stage ahead of 2022 polls: Presidential rivals seek credit for projects to revive region that has seen three decades of decline
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. A number of opposition parties plan to hold a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Gergely Karácsony, the liberal mayor of Budapest, is seen by many as a leading candidate to challenge Orbán.
Gergely Szakacs and Anita Komuves, Reuters (July 30, 2021): Hungarian election panel clears questions of LGBT referendum
Tim Gosling, World Politics Review (July 29, 2021): The EU Is Upping the Ante on Rule of Law Abuses in Hungary and Poland
Gabrielle Debinski, GZERO (July 28, 2021): Is Hungary in for an “anyone but Orbán” election?
AP (July 26, 2021): Thousands march in Hungary Pride parade to oppose anti-LGBTQ law
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2022 (due)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is due to hold general elections in October 2020. The 202 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. More
Aleksander Brezar, Euronews (July 28, 2021): Is Bosnia’s Milorad Dodik using genocide denial for political ends?
Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Bulgaria held fresh parliamentary elections on July 11 after no party formed a government following the April 4 elections. In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People, led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election. In the July elections, Trifonov’s party surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. It remains unclear what the new government will look like, and a third election is not impossible. More
Euronews, AP, AFP (July 30, 2021): Bulgaria’s President pushes for government talks to avoid another election
Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (July 30, 2021): Bulgaria Winning Party Proposes Political Newcomer for PM: Bulgaria’s President on Friday mandated July election winner ‘There’s Such a Nation’ to form a government, even though earlier that day, it seemed far from clear who it wanted to propose as Prime Minister.
Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (July 30, 2021): Bulgaria risks third parliamentary elections in a year
Albania Parliamentary Elections: April 25, 2021
Albania held parliamentary elections on April 25, 2021 in a tense political climate with several violent incidents. Since communism collapsed in 1990, Albania has held competitive elections and several transitions of power between political parties. The elections were close, and the incumbent Socialist Party won a third term in office, defeating the main opposition center-right Democratic Party. More
Llazar Semini, AP (July 30, 2021): US opposes ex-Albania leader taking seat in new parliament
Marton Dunal and Valentina Pop, Financial Times (July 28, 2021): Balkan trio push ‘mini-Schengen’ as they hit out at EU membership delay: Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia to launch own border-free travel and business zone amid frustration with Brussels
European Western Balkans (July 28, 2021): ODIHR Final Report on elections in Albania detects undue advantage for the ruling party
Exit Albania (July 26, 2021): OSCE/ODIHR Final Report: Further Electoral Reforms Needed
Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Presidential Election: October 11 and 18, 2020
Northern Cyprus held a presidential election in October 2020. The election, like Northern Cyprus itself, was recognized only by Turkey. Ankara-backed nationalist Ersin Tatar won, exacerbating tensions on the island. This is all happening in the context of the ongoing Eastern Mediterranean crisis. More
Hannah Linda Smith, Times of London (July 26, 2021): Turkish Cypriots fear the heavy hand of Erdogan: Independent statehood remains but a dream for the people of northern Cyprus, who are increasingly dismayed by the attentions of a strongman over the water.
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Estonia Indirect Presidential Election: August 30, 2021 (by parliament)
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: October/November 2021 (due)
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
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