January 26, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Ponte Vecchio in Florence, Italy. Italy’s indirect presidential election continues. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Markus Bernet (CC BY-SA 2.5)
Ongoing Europe Elections
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Began January 24, 2022
Italy’s parliament began the process of choosing a president on January 24. Although Italy’s president does not have much formal executive power, current president Sergio Mattarella, who is not seeking another term, has become increasingly powerful as a mediator in Italy’s recent series of political crises.
Current prime minister Mario Draghi has indicated interest in the role, which could trigger snap elections if the current broad coalition of right and left-wing parties does not hold together. Italy is currently not due for parliamentary elections until 2023. Some fear another bout of instability if Draghi leaves his current role – Draghi’s accession to the role of prime minister ended the last round of political chaos.
In addition, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi had been campaigning from the role, but withdrew before voting started. Numerous other political figures could be put forward for nomination.
After three rounds of voting, no president has been chosen yet.
AFP (January 27, 2022): Italy again fails to elect president in fourth vote as parties buy time
CNN (January 26, 2022 – video): Explained: How Italy will elect a new head of state
Russell Padmore, BBC (January 26, 2022): Why Italy’s new president could make or break economy
Amy Kazmin, Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, and Davide Ghiglione, Financial Times (January 24, 2022): Italy lawmakers cast blank ballots in presidential election impasse: Fragile coalition could be upset if Draghi moves from premier to head of state without deal on new government
Upcoming Europe Elections
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, two years early, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
Nuno Prudencio, Euronews (January 27, 2022): Portugal election: how the left’s odd political coalition was born
Reuters (January 27, 2022): Factbox: Parties and leaders contesting Portugal’s snap election
Lea Heyne, World Politics Review (January 26, 2022): Portugal Is Losing Its Immunity to the Lure of the Far Right
AFP (January 23, 2022): Socialists ahead as Portugal election campaign enters final stretch
Germany Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022, followed by Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022, and Lower Saxony State Elections: October 8, 2022
Germany holds several sets of state elections in 2022, following the “Superwahljahr” (Super Election Year) of 2021, which saw the defeat of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a new “traffic light coalition” government consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.
Marco Bitschnau, London School of Economics (January 24, 2022): Friedrich Merz: What to expect from the CDU’s new leader
Guy Chazan, Financial Times (January 22, 2022): Friedrich Merz wins CDU leadership election: Conservative promises victory in regional elections this year and says he will draft programme for party reeling from defeat
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Hungary is holding parliamentary elections on April 3, 2022. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.
A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.
Reuters (January 26, 2022): Hungary to host global right-wing populists in support of PM Orban
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg (January 24, 2022): Why a Vote on Orban’s Rule Reverberates Across Europe
Edit Inotai, Balkan Insight (January 21, 2022): Hungary Opposition Cheered by ‘Symbolic Victory’ on Referendum
Jennifer Rankin, The Guardian (January 20, 2022): European MEPs call for election observation mission to Hungary
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia holds early presidential and legislative elections on April 3, following a constitutional referendum on January 16 in which voters approved constitutional changes related to the judiciary – a move some hope will bring Serbia closer to EU membership. The last elections, snap parliamentary elections in June 2020, took place in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Euractiv (January 26, 2022): Serbia’s main ruling coalition partners decide to run separately in elections
BBC (January 21, 2022): Serbia revokes Rio Tinto lithium mine permits following protests
Sofija Popović , European Western Balkans (January 21, 2022): Will the adoption of constitutional changes accelerate Serbia’s EU integration process?
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
While many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.
As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Republicans have selected Valérie Pécresse, president of the regional council of Île-de-France. The Socialists chose Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo as their candidate. Pécresse has polled in second and could very realistically beat both of the far-right candidates and make it to the runoff.
Jonathan Miller, The Spectator (January 26, 2022): France’s election has become a race for second place
Kim Willsher, The Guardian (January 26, 2022): Anne Hidalgo vows to stay in race for French presidency despite dismal polls: Socialist trailing on 3% of the vote amid bitter divisions on left
Constant Méheut, New York Times (January 26, 2022): Macron’s Comments on Algeria Resonate as Elections Loom
Devin Watkins, Vatican News (January 25, 2022): French Bishops urge discernment ahead of presidential elections
AFP (January 21, 2022): French politicians worry about surge in pre-election violence
Aurelien Bredeen, New York Times (January 20, 2022): France, with an election approaching, sets a timeline to lift pandemic restrictions.
Slovenia General Elections: April 24, 2022
Slovenia will hold general elections on April 24, 2022. The current government is a conservative minority coalition headed by populist Janez Janša. It came to power in January 2020 after the center-left minority government of Marjan Šarec collapsed.
AP (January 20, 2022): Slovenia’s president to set general election for April 24
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Malta is due to hold parliamentary elections by June 2022, but early elections are possible. The two main parties are the center-left Labour Party, which currently heads the government, and the center-right Nationalist Party.
Malta Independent (January 25, 2022): Pope set to visit Malta in April, as March election rumours begin
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
The United Kingdom holds local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly (although the Northern Ireland elections could take place earlier). The Northern Ireland elections could be a watershed. Polling suggests that unionist parties could lose their majority and the nationalist Sinn Féin could become the biggest party. By far the biggest issue in public debate is Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements following Brexit.
In last year’s local elections, the Conservatives made gains on councils, particularly in England, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament. In the high-stakes Scottish Parliament elections, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) won the most seats after campaigning on another independence referendum, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum. All of Scotland’s local councils are up for election in 2022. The SNP is currently the biggest party in local government, and it is worth watching whether they make gains this year.
Ian Jones, The Independent (January 24, 2022): Countdown to 2022 local elections about to begin: Boris Johnson will face his first big electoral test since the so-called ‘partygate’ scandal
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. However, BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights.
BiH consists of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mostly by Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats, and the Republika Srpska, with mostly Orthodox Serbs. Recently, tensions have flared as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has used increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and taken actions that some analysts see as moving toward secession. According to Reuters, “The Balkan country is going through its worst political crisis since the end of a war in the 1990s after Bosnian Serbs blocked decision-making in national institutions and launched a process to withdraw from the state armed forces, tax system and judiciary.”
Both Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats have threatened to boycott the upcoming elections.
Andrea Dudik, Jasmina Kuzmanovic, and Misha Savic, Bloomberg (January 26, 2022): As World Watches Ukraine, Another Corner of Europe Embraces Russia: Bosnia offers a timely reminder that the fragmentation of the east remains one of the biggest foreign-policy challenges since the Cold War.
Reuters (January 25, 2022): Bosnia risks entering legal and institutional vacuum -corruption watchdog
European Western Balkans (January 25, 2022): Four EP groups urge EU Member States to change “appeasement” strategy towards Dodik
Dilara Aslan, Daily Sabah (January 23, 2022): Turkey to boost diplomatic efforts to ease Bosnia tensions: Experts
AP (January 21, 2022): Envoy: US will sanction those who undermine peace in Bosnia
Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: By August 2024
Montenegro is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2024, but snap polls are possible. The last elections, the fifth since independence in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro became the next prime minister. The political base of the Krivokapic’s coalition is generally pro-Moscow.
The government currently faces a no-confidence motion, which could lead to early elections in May if the motion succeeds.
Alexander Brezar, Euronews (January 27, 2022): Montenegro lurches back into political crisis as former allies try to oust PM
Samir Kajosevic, Balkan Insight (January 21, 2022): Pressure Rises Within Montenegro’s Crumbling Govt for Early Polls
Past Europe Elections
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
On January 23, 2022, Finland held elections to newly-created county councils. These councils will assume responsibility for providing healthcare (the responsibility previously fell to municipal councils). The conservative National Coalition Party won the most votes, but the left-wing coalition that currently forms the national government collectively won more seats. General elections are due in 2023.
YLE News (January 24, 2022): County elections: NCP clinches win as ‘big three’ make a comeback: Finland went to the polls on Sunday to elect new county councils.
Cyprus, Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022 and Republic of Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey, held snap parliamentary elections on January 22 following the resignation of the government. The nationalist National Unity Party (UBP) won 24 out of 50 seats.
In last year’s presidential election, Ankara-backed nationalist Ersin Tatar of UBP won a narrow, surprise victory. Tatar supports a separate state for Northern Cyprus, while his opponent, Mustafa Akinci, backs full unification with the south. Thus Tatar’s win exacerbated tensions on the island. The elections took place amid widespread protests and a tanking economy.
Cyprus is divided between the mostly Greek-speaking south and the Turkish-speaking north, and both Greece and Turkey play in the country’s politics.
Menelaos Hadjicostis, AP (January 26, 2022): Turkish Cypriot leader: Vote endorses 2-state Cyprus deal
Al Jazeera (January 25, 2022): Pro-Ankara UBP wins majority in Turkish Cypriot polls: UBP will have to form a coalition to govern the breakaway state, which has been hit by COVID-19 and the Turkish currency crisis.
AFP (January 23, 2022): Turkish Cypriots vote under shadow of economic crisis
Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Bulgaria held a presidential election on November 14 along with parliamentary elections – the third this year after no one could form a government following the first two. It appears that the third time was a charm, as a new political party called We Continue the Change (whose founders tout their Harvard credentials) formed a broad coalition.
The elections brought major change, ousting former PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB, which had governed for most of the last 12 years. The country also saw the rise of a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, which came in second in the April elections and first in the July elections. Despite being edged out by We Continue the Change in November, ITN will be part of the new coalition. The other parties in the government will be the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the centrist/center-right Democratic Bulgaria coalition.
Bulgaria is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU); however, it remains the poorest and most corrupt member of the EU. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to influence Bulgaria. Moreover, Bulgaria is currently embroiled in a diplomatic dispute with neighboring North Macedonia involving issues of language and history. Last year, it blocked North Macedonia’s EU accession. This comes on the heels of North Macedonia literally changing its name in order to get Greece to stop blocking its NATO and EU membership. More
RFE/RL (January 25, 2022): Leaders Of Bulgaria, North Macedonia Bullish On Talks To Improve Ties
Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (January 25, 2022): Bulgaria, North Macedonia PMs Hail Partnership, Play Down Disputes
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia held local elections on October 17, 2021 which delivered a landslide victory for the conservative/nationalist opposition VMRO-DPMNE and resulted in the resignation of PM Zoran Zaev of the Social Democratic Union (SDSM). These follow parliamentary elections in July 2020 in which SDSM won a second term. North Macedonia’s next general elections are not due until 2024, but the opposition is calling for snap polls in light of the results of the local elections.
Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up).
The country’s politics remain fragmented and fractious.
Aleksandar Samardjiev, Observatorio Balcani (January 26, 2022): North Macedonia: new premier, new European perspectives?
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic held parliamentary elections October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. Ultimately, an opposition coalition of the center-right and the center-left Pirates narrowly defeated Babis and are expected to form the next government. More
David Hutt, Euronews (January 21, 2022): Czech left-wing parties are at rock bottom. Can they make a comeback?
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: January 24, 2022
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Netherlands Local Elections: March 16, 2022
Germany, Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, plus Belgrade City Assembly Elections: April 3, 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022
Iceland Local Elections
Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022
Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022
Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)
Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)
Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)
Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)
Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023
Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: February 2, 2022
Last Updated: February 7, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 26, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Ongoing Europe Elections
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Began January 24, 2022
Italy’s parliament began the process of choosing a president on January 24. Although Italy’s president does not have much formal executive power, current president Sergio Mattarella, who is not seeking another term, has become increasingly powerful as a mediator in Italy’s recent series of political crises.
Current prime minister Mario Draghi has indicated interest in the role, which could trigger snap elections if the current broad coalition of right and left-wing parties does not hold together. Italy is currently not due for parliamentary elections until 2023. Some fear another bout of instability if Draghi leaves his current role – Draghi’s accession to the role of prime minister ended the last round of political chaos.
In addition, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi had been campaigning from the role, but withdrew before voting started. Numerous other political figures could be put forward for nomination.
After three rounds of voting, no president has been chosen yet.
AFP (January 27, 2022): Italy again fails to elect president in fourth vote as parties buy time
CNN (January 26, 2022 – video): Explained: How Italy will elect a new head of state
Russell Padmore, BBC (January 26, 2022): Why Italy’s new president could make or break economy
Amy Kazmin, Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, and Davide Ghiglione, Financial Times (January 24, 2022): Italy lawmakers cast blank ballots in presidential election impasse: Fragile coalition could be upset if Draghi moves from premier to head of state without deal on new government
Upcoming Europe Elections
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, two years early, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
Nuno Prudencio, Euronews (January 27, 2022): Portugal election: how the left’s odd political coalition was born
Reuters (January 27, 2022): Factbox: Parties and leaders contesting Portugal’s snap election
Lea Heyne, World Politics Review (January 26, 2022): Portugal Is Losing Its Immunity to the Lure of the Far Right
AFP (January 23, 2022): Socialists ahead as Portugal election campaign enters final stretch
Germany Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022, followed by Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022, and Lower Saxony State Elections: October 8, 2022
Germany holds several sets of state elections in 2022, following the “Superwahljahr” (Super Election Year) of 2021, which saw the defeat of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a new “traffic light coalition” government consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.
Marco Bitschnau, London School of Economics (January 24, 2022): Friedrich Merz: What to expect from the CDU’s new leader
Guy Chazan, Financial Times (January 22, 2022): Friedrich Merz wins CDU leadership election: Conservative promises victory in regional elections this year and says he will draft programme for party reeling from defeat
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Hungary is holding parliamentary elections on April 3, 2022. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.
A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.
Reuters (January 26, 2022): Hungary to host global right-wing populists in support of PM Orban
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg (January 24, 2022): Why a Vote on Orban’s Rule Reverberates Across Europe
Edit Inotai, Balkan Insight (January 21, 2022): Hungary Opposition Cheered by ‘Symbolic Victory’ on Referendum
Jennifer Rankin, The Guardian (January 20, 2022): European MEPs call for election observation mission to Hungary
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia holds early presidential and legislative elections on April 3, following a constitutional referendum on January 16 in which voters approved constitutional changes related to the judiciary – a move some hope will bring Serbia closer to EU membership. The last elections, snap parliamentary elections in June 2020, took place in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Euractiv (January 26, 2022): Serbia’s main ruling coalition partners decide to run separately in elections
BBC (January 21, 2022): Serbia revokes Rio Tinto lithium mine permits following protests
Sofija Popović , European Western Balkans (January 21, 2022): Will the adoption of constitutional changes accelerate Serbia’s EU integration process?
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
While many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.
As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Republicans have selected Valérie Pécresse, president of the regional council of Île-de-France. The Socialists chose Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo as their candidate. Pécresse has polled in second and could very realistically beat both of the far-right candidates and make it to the runoff.
Jonathan Miller, The Spectator (January 26, 2022): France’s election has become a race for second place
Kim Willsher, The Guardian (January 26, 2022): Anne Hidalgo vows to stay in race for French presidency despite dismal polls: Socialist trailing on 3% of the vote amid bitter divisions on left
Constant Méheut, New York Times (January 26, 2022): Macron’s Comments on Algeria Resonate as Elections Loom
Devin Watkins, Vatican News (January 25, 2022): French Bishops urge discernment ahead of presidential elections
AFP (January 21, 2022): French politicians worry about surge in pre-election violence
Aurelien Bredeen, New York Times (January 20, 2022): France, with an election approaching, sets a timeline to lift pandemic restrictions.
Slovenia General Elections: April 24, 2022
Slovenia will hold general elections on April 24, 2022. The current government is a conservative minority coalition headed by populist Janez Janša. It came to power in January 2020 after the center-left minority government of Marjan Šarec collapsed.
AP (January 20, 2022): Slovenia’s president to set general election for April 24
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Malta is due to hold parliamentary elections by June 2022, but early elections are possible. The two main parties are the center-left Labour Party, which currently heads the government, and the center-right Nationalist Party.
Malta Independent (January 25, 2022): Pope set to visit Malta in April, as March election rumours begin
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
The United Kingdom holds local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly (although the Northern Ireland elections could take place earlier). The Northern Ireland elections could be a watershed. Polling suggests that unionist parties could lose their majority and the nationalist Sinn Féin could become the biggest party. By far the biggest issue in public debate is Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements following Brexit.
In last year’s local elections, the Conservatives made gains on councils, particularly in England, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament. In the high-stakes Scottish Parliament elections, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) won the most seats after campaigning on another independence referendum, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum. All of Scotland’s local councils are up for election in 2022. The SNP is currently the biggest party in local government, and it is worth watching whether they make gains this year.
Ian Jones, The Independent (January 24, 2022): Countdown to 2022 local elections about to begin: Boris Johnson will face his first big electoral test since the so-called ‘partygate’ scandal
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. However, BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights.
BiH consists of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mostly by Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats, and the Republika Srpska, with mostly Orthodox Serbs. Recently, tensions have flared as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has used increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and taken actions that some analysts see as moving toward secession. According to Reuters, “The Balkan country is going through its worst political crisis since the end of a war in the 1990s after Bosnian Serbs blocked decision-making in national institutions and launched a process to withdraw from the state armed forces, tax system and judiciary.”
Both Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats have threatened to boycott the upcoming elections.
Andrea Dudik, Jasmina Kuzmanovic, and Misha Savic, Bloomberg (January 26, 2022): As World Watches Ukraine, Another Corner of Europe Embraces Russia: Bosnia offers a timely reminder that the fragmentation of the east remains one of the biggest foreign-policy challenges since the Cold War.
Reuters (January 25, 2022): Bosnia risks entering legal and institutional vacuum -corruption watchdog
European Western Balkans (January 25, 2022): Four EP groups urge EU Member States to change “appeasement” strategy towards Dodik
Dilara Aslan, Daily Sabah (January 23, 2022): Turkey to boost diplomatic efforts to ease Bosnia tensions: Experts
AP (January 21, 2022): Envoy: US will sanction those who undermine peace in Bosnia
Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: By August 2024
Montenegro is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2024, but snap polls are possible. The last elections, the fifth since independence in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro became the next prime minister. The political base of the Krivokapic’s coalition is generally pro-Moscow.
The government currently faces a no-confidence motion, which could lead to early elections in May if the motion succeeds.
Alexander Brezar, Euronews (January 27, 2022): Montenegro lurches back into political crisis as former allies try to oust PM
Samir Kajosevic, Balkan Insight (January 21, 2022): Pressure Rises Within Montenegro’s Crumbling Govt for Early Polls
Past Europe Elections
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
On January 23, 2022, Finland held elections to newly-created county councils. These councils will assume responsibility for providing healthcare (the responsibility previously fell to municipal councils). The conservative National Coalition Party won the most votes, but the left-wing coalition that currently forms the national government collectively won more seats. General elections are due in 2023.
YLE News (January 24, 2022): County elections: NCP clinches win as ‘big three’ make a comeback: Finland went to the polls on Sunday to elect new county councils.
Cyprus, Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022 and Republic of Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey, held snap parliamentary elections on January 22 following the resignation of the government. The nationalist National Unity Party (UBP) won 24 out of 50 seats.
In last year’s presidential election, Ankara-backed nationalist Ersin Tatar of UBP won a narrow, surprise victory. Tatar supports a separate state for Northern Cyprus, while his opponent, Mustafa Akinci, backs full unification with the south. Thus Tatar’s win exacerbated tensions on the island. The elections took place amid widespread protests and a tanking economy.
Cyprus is divided between the mostly Greek-speaking south and the Turkish-speaking north, and both Greece and Turkey play in the country’s politics.
Menelaos Hadjicostis, AP (January 26, 2022): Turkish Cypriot leader: Vote endorses 2-state Cyprus deal
Al Jazeera (January 25, 2022): Pro-Ankara UBP wins majority in Turkish Cypriot polls: UBP will have to form a coalition to govern the breakaway state, which has been hit by COVID-19 and the Turkish currency crisis.
AFP (January 23, 2022): Turkish Cypriots vote under shadow of economic crisis
Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Bulgaria held a presidential election on November 14 along with parliamentary elections – the third this year after no one could form a government following the first two. It appears that the third time was a charm, as a new political party called We Continue the Change (whose founders tout their Harvard credentials) formed a broad coalition.
The elections brought major change, ousting former PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB, which had governed for most of the last 12 years. The country also saw the rise of a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, which came in second in the April elections and first in the July elections. Despite being edged out by We Continue the Change in November, ITN will be part of the new coalition. The other parties in the government will be the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the centrist/center-right Democratic Bulgaria coalition.
Bulgaria is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU); however, it remains the poorest and most corrupt member of the EU. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to influence Bulgaria. Moreover, Bulgaria is currently embroiled in a diplomatic dispute with neighboring North Macedonia involving issues of language and history. Last year, it blocked North Macedonia’s EU accession. This comes on the heels of North Macedonia literally changing its name in order to get Greece to stop blocking its NATO and EU membership. More
RFE/RL (January 25, 2022): Leaders Of Bulgaria, North Macedonia Bullish On Talks To Improve Ties
Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (January 25, 2022): Bulgaria, North Macedonia PMs Hail Partnership, Play Down Disputes
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia held local elections on October 17, 2021 which delivered a landslide victory for the conservative/nationalist opposition VMRO-DPMNE and resulted in the resignation of PM Zoran Zaev of the Social Democratic Union (SDSM). These follow parliamentary elections in July 2020 in which SDSM won a second term. North Macedonia’s next general elections are not due until 2024, but the opposition is calling for snap polls in light of the results of the local elections.
Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up).
The country’s politics remain fragmented and fractious.
Aleksandar Samardjiev, Observatorio Balcani (January 26, 2022): North Macedonia: new premier, new European perspectives?
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic held parliamentary elections October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. Ultimately, an opposition coalition of the center-right and the center-left Pirates narrowly defeated Babis and are expected to form the next government. More
David Hutt, Euronews (January 21, 2022): Czech left-wing parties are at rock bottom. Can they make a comeback?
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: January 24, 2022
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Netherlands Local Elections: March 16, 2022
Germany, Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, plus Belgrade City Assembly Elections: April 3, 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022
Iceland Local Elections
Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022
Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022
Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)
Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)
Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)
Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)
Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023
Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: January 25, 2022
Last Updated: February 6, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 25, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – could possibly happen by June 2022
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. The UN has urged elections by June 2022.
Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More
Jacob Mundy, The Conversation (January 25, 2022): A decade later, no end in sight for Libya’s political transition
Francesco Bongarrà, Arab News (January 25, 2022): Libya should hold elections as soon as possible, avoid ‘new transitional phase’: Italy
Reuters (January 24, 2022): Libyan parliament committee urges change of interim PM: Committee also says it would take at least nine months to prepare for a new election to avoid fraud and ensure security.
AFP (January 23, 2022): Libyan PM wants constitution before elections
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022 and General Elections: Long Overdue
The Palestinian Authority is holding elections in two phases, the first of which took place on December 11, 2021, and the second of which is due on March 26, 2022. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 17 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006.
Hamas, which controls Gaza, did not allow the local elections to take place there in December and has said it will also bar the March elections.
Jehad Barakat, Al Jazeera (January 25, 2022): Why is the Palestinian Authority cracking down on opposition?
Khaled Abu Toameh, Jerusalem Post (January 24, 2022): The Ramallah ‘gentleman’ who could become PA president
Mohammad Al-Kassim, The Media Line (January 19, 2022): Abbas Reelected Fatah Leader and Eyes More Mandates in Next PLO Meeting
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Lebanon has set parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.
Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that the upcoming elections could bring a hint of change.
Tamara Qiblawi, CNN (January 24, 2022): Lebanon’s Hariri withdraws from politics, leaving sectarian vacuum behind
Ben Hubbard, New York Times (January 24, 2022): Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s Former Prime Minister, Quits Politics: He was the leader of the country’s Sunni Muslims, one of the three main sects that share power, and the scion of a prominent political dynasty.
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 15, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.
Nisan Ahmado, Polygraph.info (January 25, 2022): More ‘Guaranteed’ Freedom Than Ever in Tunisia? Not So Much
Al Jazeera (January 24, 2022): Tunisia president’s top aide quits over ‘fundamental differences’: Nadia Akacha has been described as President Saied’s closest and most trusted adviser.
Africanews (January 21, 2022): Tunisia President denies country is returning to authoritarianism
Past Middle East Elections
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.
The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.
The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge, and Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – will be the kingmaker in the new government. More
Sinan Mahmoud, The National UAE (January 25, 2022): Iraqi court rejects bid to annul outcomes of first parliamentary session
Al-Monitor (January 22, 2022): Islamic State escalates violence across Baghdad Belt: Terrorist attacks increase as Iraq continues government formation process.
Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.
Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.
Kathy Gannon, AP (January 20, 2022): Taliban storm Kabul apartment, arrest activist, her sisters
David Zucchino and Yaqoob Akbary, New York Times (January 24, 2022): Threatened and Beaten, Afghan Women Defy Taliban With Protests
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: Overdue (delayed from December 24, 2021 – additional delays possible)
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023
Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: September 2023
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Israel Local Elections: October 2023
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: January 24, 2022
Last Updated: February 3, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 24, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Due, Indirect Presidential Election: By February 25, 2022 (tentative – preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, parties have agreed to complete the process by February 25, 2022, delayed from February 8, 2021, but are unlikely to meet the deadline. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays are exacerbating the country’s instability. Legislative election are underway, but proceeding slowly, and will unlikely be complete in time to meet the February 25 deadline for the presidential election.
Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More
Mohamed Olad Hassan, Voice of America (January 22, 2022): Reporter’s Notebook: Somali Journalist-Turned-Politician Survives Fifth Suicide Attack
Abdulkadir Khalif, The East African (January 21, 2022): Somalia resumes parliamentary elections following deal
Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 9, 2022
Gambia has scheduled legislative and local elections for April 9, 2022. These follow the December 2021 presidential election, the first since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box.
In a 2016’s surprising election result, then-opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy. Jammeh sought to influence this election from exile (he is currently in Equatorial Guinea). Although Jammeh and Barrow had previously made a controversial pre-election deal, they abandoned it and Jammeh ultimately called on voters to oust Barrow, who nonetheless won re-election by a large margin. Even though international observers and Gambian civil society organizations have called the 2021 presidential election credible, some opposition candidates are challenging the results. More
Africanews with AFP (January 20, 2022): Gambia’s Barrow sworn in for second presidential term
The Point (January 18, 2022): Gambia: IEC Announces Date for Legislative Election
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays likely following coup) and Presidential and Legislative Elections: Possible, following coup
Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022, but delays are likely due to the growing security crisis and recent coup.
On January 24, 2022, a group of soldiers detained President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, dissolved the legislature, and declared that a military junta would control the country moving forward. This coup (which follows coups in nearby Guinea, Chad, and Mali) plunges the country’s political future into even greater uncertainty. Burkina Faso avoided an earlier coup attempt, and some analysts believed that a successful coup was only a matter of time given simmering discontent with Kabore’s handling of the jihadist threat and other issues.
Captain Sidsore Kaber Ouedraogo of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (the name the junta has given itself) says new elections will take place in the future, but has not specified a date. More
Dave Lawler, Axios (January 24, 2022): Soldiers seize power in Burkina Faso as global coup surge continues
Sam Mednick, AP (January 24, 2022): Soldiers say military junta now controls Burkina Faso
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Because of the crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.
Stratfor (January 24, 2022): What’s at Stake in Kenya’s 2022 Presidential Election
Son Gatitu, The Africa Report (January 20, 2022): Kenya: What’s next for William Ruto as he hits polling plateau?
AFP (January 18, 2022): Kenya’s top court reviews disputed bid to change constitution
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Angola holds presidential and legislative elections in August 2022. The country has not to date held free elections. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, has been in power since since independence in 1975. For 38 years, the MPLA’s José Eduardo Dos Santos ruled Angola with an iron fist. His regime engaged in rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Dos Santos’s successor, João Lourenço, has enacted some reforms and sought to curtail corruption, but many issues remain. Moreover, local elections (the country’s first) have been delayed repeatedly, at times sparking protests. The political climate remains tense.
MPLA’s vote share has been steadily decreasing with each successive election: it received 81 percent of the vote in 2008, 72 percent in 2012, and 61 percent in 2017. For the upcoming elections, the three main opposition parties will back a single presidential candidate: Adalberto Costa Junior, leader of UNITA, the main opposition party.
Angola is one of the biggest oil producers in Africa. More
Borralho Ndomba, DW (January 19, 2022 – in Portuguese): Angola: MPLA rejects dialogue with those who “do not respect institutions”: The opposition once again asked for a dialogue with the President of the Republic, but the ruling party, the MPLA, is against it.
Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022
Somaliland plans to hold a presidential election on November 13, 2022, following long-delayed parliamentary and local elections that finally took place on May 31, 2021. In those elections, the two main opposition parties, Waddani and UCID, together won more seats in parliament than the governing Kulmiye party. Waddani and UCID will team up to choose a parliament speaker and on local councils (where they also won). Somaliland is a presidential system, so there’s no PM. But it is significant for democracy that the opposition won the “midterms.”
President Muse Bihi Abdi from Kulmiye is eligible to seek a second term in 2022.
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections. It is located on the Bab el-Mandeb, a strait through which most oil and gas from the Persian Gulf – and a lot of other international commerce – transits. Thus the geopolitical stakes are high. More
Matthew Gordon, The Conversation (January 21, 2022): Somaliland’s quest for recognition: UK debate offers hint of a sea change
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels while fighting on the front lines. His son, 37-year-old General Mahamat Déby, declared himself interim leader, backed by the military. He dissolved parliament and promised elections within 18 months, by December 2022. However, it is unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote, and elections are riven by lengthy delays, violence, and fraud. More
Mahamat Ramadane, Reuters (January 19, 2022): Chad frees rebels ahead of national peace-building talks
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2023. These will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. However, democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, continues to govern in an authoritarian, repressive manner.
AFP (January 24, 2022): Zimbabwe’s main opposition leader changes party name
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations (January 20, 2022): Identity Crisis Undermines Zimbabwean Opposition: Zimbabwe’s largest opposition party finds itself fighting for survival amid a slew of legal challenges.
Tafi Mhaka, Al Jazeera (January 19, 2022): It’s time for the SADC region to hold Zimbabwe to account: It is not foreign powers that are keeping Zimbabwe in a permanent state of crisis, but its own government.
Sudan General Elections: By 2024 (due – unclear following coup)
Sudan plans to hold general elections by 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. Civil servant and diplomat Abdalla Hamdok became prime minister.
However, another coup in October 2021 returned Sudan to military rule. Hamdok resigned. Protests continue and the country’s political future remains uncertain.
Mohanad Hashim, BBC (January 24, 2022): Sudan protesters: Ready to die for freedom
Al Jazeera (January 24, 2022): Sudan security forces kill three anti-coup protesters: Medics – Deaths bring to 76 the number of protesters killed in a crackdown on anti-coup demonstrations, the medics say.
Wini Omer, openDemocracy (January 21, 2022): Sudan’s revolution enters its second phase: disrupting the state
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed to December 2025
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup, but the interim government has proposed a delay to December 2025, sparking a backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.
In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (who has since died at age 76, having been in poor health for years), dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.
On May 25, 2021, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid. Most recently, the government has proposed delaying the elections to December 2025, sparking the threat of sanctions from the regional bloc ECOWAS. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has called the interim government illegitimate, and the international community has condemned its failure to make progress against the jihadist threat that plages the Sahel.
Kemo Cham, The East African (January 22, 2022): Defiant Mali junta banks on mass public support to beat Ecowas ban
AFP (January 21, 2022): US army confirms Russian mercenaries in Mali
Al Jazeera (January 21, 2022): Mali holds state ceremony for ex-President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita
France24 (January 20, 2022): France mulls ending military support for Mali as relations with junta worsen
Bate Felix, Reuters (January 18, 2022): ‘We don’t want to isolate Mali’, EU envoy says despite sanctions plan
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.
Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More
Sharnam Vaswani, Jurist (January 24, 2022): Guinea junta creates council to facilitate transition to elections
AP (January 18, 2022): Ex-Guinean President Conde Flown Abroad for Medical Care
Past Africa Elections
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022, followed by legislative elections in 2022 and a presidential election in 2024
Senegal held local elections on January 23, and is due to hold legislative elections by July 2022.
Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.
In the local elections, the opposition won in Dakar (which was already an opposition stronghold) and the southern city of Ziguinchor, where Sonko was elected mayor. Several candidates close to Sall, including health minister Abdoulaye Diouf Sarr, lost their races.
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. More
Diadie Ba, Reuters (January 24, 2022): Senegal’s ruling party loses key cities in local elections
Théa Ollivier, Le Monde (January 24, 2022 – in French): In Ziguinchor, in the south of Senegal, Ousmane Sonko celebrates his “beautiful victory” in the municipal elections
Africanews (January 22, 2022): Residents of Dakar share expectations ahead of Sunday poll
Assane Diagne, AFP (January 20, 2022): Senegal local elections key test for President Sall
South Africa Local Elections: November 1, 2021
South Africa held local elections on November 1, 2021. Voters elected councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. The elections took place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. In that vein, the ruling African National Congress had its worst election result since the end of apartheid, gaining less than 50 percent of the vote. More
Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times (January 24, 2022): ANC rival steps up attacks on South Africa’s judiciary: Judges become political targets as battle for control of ruling party intensifies ahead of leadership poll this year
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide and his liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) won a majority in the parliamentary election, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat, moving Zambia back toward democracy.
Hakainde Hichilema, Brookings Institution (January 21, 2022): Zambia’s success will be Africa’s success
Regional Analysis
Nic Cheeseman, The Africa Report (January 19, 2022): Africa in 2022: The danger of hegemonic instability
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Ongoing
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: February 8, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup – delays possible)
Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 9, 2022
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays possible)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022
Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (due – delays possible)
Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022
Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
South Sudan General Elections: December 2022 (tentative)
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)
Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)
Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)
Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)
Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Togo Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: January 22, 2022
Last Updated: February 1, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 22, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there will be 27 presidential candidates from various parties.
Holly K. Sonneland, AS/COA (January 20, 2022): A Look at Costa Rica’s 2022 General Elections
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the current frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. Ingrid Betancourt, a former FARC hostage who was kidnapped while running for president in 2002, is also running, on a platform of national reconciliation.
The country has been rocked by protests beginning in April 2021. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests grew violent, leading to dozens of deaths.
BBC (January 19, 2022): Ingrid Betancourt: Former Farc captive announces presidential bid
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
Reuters (January 20, 2022): Brazil electoral court could ban Telegram app for not fighting fake news
Louis Emanuel, The Telegraph (January 15, 2022): Lula: There will be no coup in Brazil when I defeat Jair Bolsonaro: Former president dismisses fears that Jair Bolsonaro will try to cling to power, claiming voters will ‘reject authoritarianism’
Simone Preissler Iglesias, Bloomberg (January 19, 2022): Brazil Real Gains as Lula Woos Centrist to Join Ticket
Naiara Galarraga Gortázar, El País (January 15, 2022): Bolsonaro and his supporters turn to Telegram to avoid being silenced for spreading fake news
Ecuador Regional Elections: March 2023 (due)
Ecuador is due to hold regional elections in March 2023. In the 2021 general elections, conservative Guillermo Lasso edged out indigenous activist Yaku Pérez for a spot in the runoff. He subsequently surprised many by decisively defeating left-wing economist Andrés Arauz, a protege of former president Rafael Correa (himself barred from running after being convicted of corruption).
Lasso has proposed holding a referendum on reforms to the justice system concurrently with the regional elections.
Alexandra Valencia, Reuters (January 18, 2022): Ecuador to ask citizens to vote on justice reform – president
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed
Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum). Prime Minister Ariel Henry is now leading the country, and has said he will hold elections, but has not specified a date.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Jim Wyss, Bloomberg (January 21, 2022): Haiti’s Henry Says He’ll Remain in Office Until New Elections
AP (January 20, 2022): Suspect in Haiti President’s assassination extradited to Miami
Gessika Thomas and Brian Ellsworth, Reuters (January 20, 2022): Analysis: As Haiti investigation stalls, U.S. probes president’s killing
Jihan Abdalla, Al Jazeera (January 18, 2022): ‘Citizens are not protected’: What does 2022 hold for Haiti? The situation in Haiti has reached a crisis point amid stalled elections, rising poverty and the growing power of gangs.
Past Americas Elections
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Barbados held snap parliamentary elections on January 19, a year early, following a decision made in September 2021 to remove the British monarch as head of state and become a republic. The incumbent center-left Barbados Labor Party (BLP, knicknamed the “Bees”) won in a landslide (after winning all 30 seats in the last elections). Prime Minister Mia Mottley will remain in office.
Previously, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP, “Dems”) held power for 10 years. The DLP is seen as being to the left of the BLP, having been founded by a group that broke away in 1955 (the BLP was founded in 1938). However, politics in Barbados tends to be driven by personalities.
U.S. Embassy in Barbados (January 21, 2022): United States Congratulates Barbados on Successful Elections
Al Jazeera (January 20, 2022): Barbados PM hails governing party’s landslide election victory
AP (January 20, 2022): Barbados holds snap general election amid criticism
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras held presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidential race.
These elections took place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Some feared post-election turmoil this year, but Nasry Asfura, the National Party’s candidate, conceded.
On the geopolitical front, Honduras is one of the few countries that maintains formal diplomatic relations Taiwan, but Beijing has been pressuring politicians to change that. LIBRE had said that it would switch its recognition to Beijing, but has not done so yet and could potentially change its mind. More
AFP (January 22, 2022): Brawl in Honduras Congress Ahead of New President’s Inauguration
Brian Hioe, The Diplomat (January 20, 2022): Did Honduras’ New President Change Her Mind About Dropping Taiwan?
Marlon González, AP (January 21, 2022): Honduras new leader sees ‘betrayal’ before taking office
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
On January 9, opposition candidate Sergio Garrido won a surprise victory in Barinas state, the birthplace of none other than Hugo Chavez. The vote took place because the original opposition candidate was disqualified retroactively.
Regina Garcia Cano, AP (January 22, 2022): Despite key win, Venezuela’s opposition split over strategy
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Silk Road Briefing (January 16, 2022): Nicaragua Joins China’s Belt And Road Initiative
Russia in Latin America
Evan Ellis, Global Americans (January 19, 2022): Russia’s Latest Return to Latin America
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Bahamas, Local Elections in Grand Bahama: January 27, 2022
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022
Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)
Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022
Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)
Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)
Ecuador Regional Elections: March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidenital and Legislative Elections: April 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: January 21, 2022
Last Updated: January 31, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 21, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Nepal National Assembly Elections: January 26, 2022 (voting for 1/3 of upper house)
Nepal holds elections for a third of the National Assembly, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on January 26, 2022.
Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
PTI (January 21, 2022): Nepal PM Sher Bahadur Deuba calls for three-tier elections within a year
Saloni Murarka, WION (January 18, 2022): Nepal’s ruling coalition parties agree to hold local elections in April
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024.
First up: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 20 to March 7. Punjab will also vote on February 20.
Sumathi Bala, CNBC (January 18, 2022): Political setbacks dent Modi’s strongman image as India heads for crucial state polls
Upmanyu Trivedi, Bloomberg (January 18, 2022): India’s Congress Party Courts Women in Major State Elections
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Yonhap (January 21, 2022): Lee, Yoon neck-and-neck at 34% vs. 33%: poll
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) will hold a presidential election in March 2022. Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although some challenges remain.
The current president, Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo, was elected in 2017.
CathNews (January 20, 2022): Former priest to run for presidency in Timor-Leste
Ryan Dagur, UCA News (January 17, 2022): Guterres keen to continue as Timor-Leste president: He may be challenged by Jose Ramos-Horta with backing from fellow former leader Xanana Gusmao
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo.
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
AFP (January 22, 2022): Twitter Suspends Hundreds of Accounts Promoting Philippines’ Marcos Jr.
Bea Cupin, Rappler (January 20, 2022): First majority president post-Marcos? Highs and lows ahead of 2022 polls
Walter Lohman, GIS Reports (January 18, 2022): Scenarios for a post-Duterte Philippines
South China Morning Post (January 18, 2022): Wang Yi urges Philippines not to ditch Duterte’s China-friendly policy after election
Al Jazeera (January 17, 2022): Philippines dismisses bid to bar Marcos Jr from presidential race: Lawyers who filed the complaint against Ferdinand Marcos Jr – based on a past tax conviction – say they will appeal.
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More
Reuters (January 17, 2022): Australia PM’s ratings take a hit months away from election, poll shows
Ben Westcott, Bloomberg (January 16, 2022): Australia’s Opposition Toughens China Stance Ahead of Elections
Deborah Snow, Sydney Morning Herald (January 15, 2022): Nothing off limits: Scott Morrison on his bruising years as Prime Minister
Shaimaa Khalil, BBC (January 14, 2022): Novak Djokovic: The politics behind Australia’s decision
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Astrid Noren-Nilsson, East Asia Forum (January 21, 2022): Hun Sen future-proofs Cambodia’s politics
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (January 19, 2022): Cambodia Resumes Treason Trial of Opposition Leader Kem Sokha: The resumption follows a nearly two-year break in proceedings, allegedly due to COVID-19.
AFP (January 19, 2022): Cambodia opposition leader calls for treason charges to be dropped as trial resumes
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
Taiwan, a robust democracy, has scheduled “nine-in-one” local elections for November 26, 2022. Voters will elect nine categories of local officials.
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Amy Qin and Amy Chang Chien, New York Times (January 19, 2022): ‘We Are Taiwanese’: China’s Growing Menace Hardens Island’s Identity
Lai Yu-chen and William Yen, CNA (January 14, 2022): Taiwan’s ‘nine-in-one elections’ to be held Nov. 26
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Thailand is due to hold general elections by March 23, 2023, but early elections are possible. In addition, various types of local elections are taking place at various times. These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months. More
Bangkok Post (January 21, 2022): PM rules out early election
Yohei Muramatsu, Nikkei Asia (January 21, 2022): Thai ruling coalition fractures as Prayuth’s party culls ranks: Palang Pracharath ousts secretary-general and allies after by-election losses
Tan Tam Mei, Straits Times (January 18, 2022): By-election wins for Thailand’s Democrats more telling of ruling party’s troubles
Tommy Walker, Voice of America (January 17, 2022): Thailand Facing Crackdown on Freedoms
Malaysia General Elections: By May 2023 (early elections highly likely)
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the national ruling coalition. Subsequently, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, held snap polls on December 18, delivering yet another win for the government’s allies. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister).
Malaysia sits on a key strategic chokepoint – the Strait of Malacca – and has sought to engage both the United States and China as it seeks to build its regional influence. More
P Prem Kumar, Nikkei Asia (January 20, 2022): Ismail Sabri faces brewing tensions over Malaysia election timing: Sources say PM under pressure from within own party to dissolve parliament
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
AFP (January 22, 2022): Myanmar Junta Sentences Lawmaker From Suu Kyi’s Party to Death
David Hutt, DW (January 18, 2022): Myanmar’s government-in-exile finds friends in the Czech Republic
Mitch McConnell, Lexington Herald Leader (January 18, 2022): Mitch McConnell: I’m continuing my work to strengthen democracy in Burma
The Irrawaddy (January 17, 2022): Suu Kyi to Face 164 Years Imprisonment as Myanmar Junta Adds Five More Charges
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand.
Rangoli Mitra, The Diplomat (January 19, 2022): The China-India Cold War in Maldives: Beijing and New Delhi’s jostling for influence in Maldives cannot be separated from the island nation’s domestic political wrangling.
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determinationoa to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics, so Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect. More
Liu Aoran and Raymond Chung, Radio Free Asia (January 21, 2022): European parliament slams Hong Kong rights abuses under draconian security law
Gary Cheung and Natalie Wong, South China Morning Post (January 18, 2022): Hong Kong guessing game: why is Beijing still silent on the chief executive race? And does Carrie Lam have its backing?
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Nepal National Assembly Elections: January 26, 2022 (voting for 1/3 of upper house)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Nepal Provincial Elections: April or May 2022 (due)
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.