January 31, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A house in Galkayo, Somalia. Photo credit: Wikimedia/warsame90 (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Due, Indirect Presidential Election: By February 25, 2022 (tentative – preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, parties have agreed to complete the process by February 25, 2022, delayed from February 8, 2021, but are unlikely to meet the deadline. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays are exacerbating the country’s instability. Legislative election are underway, but proceeding slowly, and will unlikely be complete in time to meet the February 25 deadline for the presidential election.
Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More
Critical Threats (January 28, 2022): Africa File: Al Shabaab surges bombings amid Somali political crisis
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Foreign Affairs (January 26, 2022): Somalia’s Dangerous Authoritarian Turn
Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 9, 2022
Gambia has scheduled legislative and local elections for April 9, 2022. These follow the December 2021 presidential election, the first since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box.
In a 2016’s surprising election result, then-opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy. Jammeh sought to influence this election from exile (he is currently in Equatorial Guinea). Although Jammeh and Barrow had previously made a controversial pre-election deal, they abandoned it and Jammeh ultimately called on voters to oust Barrow, who nonetheless won re-election by a large margin. Even though international observers and Gambian civil society organizations have called the 2021 presidential election credible, some opposition candidates are challenging the results. More
Satang Nabaneh, The Conversation (January 27, 2022):: Why The Gambia should fast-track gender quotas for women
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays likely following coup) and Presidential and Legislative Elections: Possible, following coup
Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022, but delays are likely due to the growing security crisis and recent coup.
On January 24, 2022, a group of soldiers detained President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, dissolved the legislature, and declared that a military junta would control the country moving forward. This coup (which follows coups in nearby Guinea, Chad, and Mali) plunges the country’s political future into even greater uncertainty. Burkina Faso avoided an earlier coup attempt, and some analysts believed that a successful coup was only a matter of time given simmering discontent with Kabore’s handling of the jihadist threat and other issues.
Captain Sidsore Kaber Ouedraogo of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (the name the junta has given itself) says new elections will take place in the future, but has not specified a date. More
AP (January 31, 2022): African Union suspends Burkina Faso following military coup
Al Jazeera (January 28, 2022): ECOWAS due to discuss response to Burkina Faso coup
Clair MacDougall, Christian Science Monitor (January 28, 2022): Burkina Faso coup: How democracy crumbled under jihadi stress
Edward McAllister and Thiam Ndiaga, Reuters (January 27, 2022): Burkina Faso will return to constitutional order when conditions are right, military leader says
Georja Calvin-Smith and Laura DiBiasio, France24 (January 25, 2022 – video): Burkina Faso: Pro-junta protesters rally in Ouagadougou after coup
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022, followed by legislative elections in 2022 and a presidential election in 2024
Senegal is due to hold legislative elections by July 2022. These follow local elections that took place on January 23.
Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.
In the local elections, the opposition won in Dakar (which was already an opposition stronghold) and the southern city of Ziguinchor, where Sonko was elected mayor. Several candidates close to Sall, including health minister Abdoulaye Diouf Sarr, lost their races.
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. More
Marième Soumaré, The Africa Report (January 25, 2022): Senegal: Oppositionist Ousmane Sonko celebrates his election victory in Ziguinchor
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Because of the crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.
Mohammed Yusuf, Voice of America (January 28, 2022): Kenya on High Alert After France Warns of Impending Terror Attack
Eric Ombok and David Herbling, Bloomberg (January 27, 2022): Kenya Revises Law to Prop Political Coalitions Ahead of Vote
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Angola holds presidential and legislative elections in August 2022. The country has not to date held free elections. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, has been in power since since independence in 1975. For 38 years, the MPLA’s José Eduardo Dos Santos ruled Angola with an iron fist. His regime engaged in rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Dos Santos’s successor, João Lourenço, has enacted some reforms and sought to curtail corruption, but many issues remain. Moreover, local elections (the country’s first) have been delayed repeatedly, at times sparking protests. The political climate remains tense.
MPLA’s vote share has been steadily decreasing with each successive election: it received 81 percent of the vote in 2008, 72 percent in 2012, and 61 percent in 2017. For the upcoming elections, the three main opposition parties will back a single presidential candidate: Adalberto Costa Junior, leader of UNITA, the main opposition party.
Angola is one of the biggest oil producers in Africa. More
Peter Fabricius, Daily Maverick (January 25, 2022): Angola’s ruling MPLA begins international voter registration drive but analysts believe move will be party’s undoing
Lesotho General Elections: September or October 2022
Lesotho is due to hold general elections in September or October 2022, its third in six years.
Sabrine Donohoe, Foreign Brief (Janaury 28, 2022): Former Lesotho Prime Minister Thomas Thabane to step down as leader of the All Basotho Convention
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels while fighting on the front lines. His son, 37-year-old General Mahamat Déby, declared himself interim leader, backed by the military. He dissolved parliament and promised elections within 18 months, by December 2022. However, it is unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote, and elections are riven by lengthy delays, violence, and fraud. More
Ali Aba Kaya, AFP (January 27, 2022): Chad junta postpones post-coup forum to May
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections on February 18, 2023, but some states are due to hold gubernatorial elections before that, including Ekiti and Osun states in 2022.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
David Pilling, Financial Times (January 31, 2022): What is Nigeria’s government for? Muhammadu Buhari may go but it’s not the leader who matters, the system itself must change
Harrison Edeh, International Centre for Investigative Reporting (January 25, 2022): Analysts tap 2023 election as major reason for suspending petrol subsidy
South Sudan Elections: By March 2023 (planned)
South Sudan plans to hold elections by March 2023, the first since independence in 2011. Salva Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. Additional election delays are possible.
Fred Oluoch, The East African (January 29, 2022): Juba asks global community for support to hold timely polls in 2023
David J. Scheffer and Madeline Babin, Council on Foreign Relations (January 28, 2022): Understanding South Sudan’s Postwar Struggle for Democracy and Accountability
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2023. These will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. However, democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, continues to govern in an authoritarian, repressive manner.
AFP (January 27, 2022): Zimbabwe opposition upbeat about polls despite crackdown
South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)
South Africa is due to hold general elections in May 2024.
Dubbed the “Rainbow Nation” by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, South Africa inspired the world with its nonviolent transition from apartheid in 1994. Since the end of apartheid and the subsequent victory of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nelson Mandela, the African National Congress (ANC) has been South Africa’s dominant political party, winning every election since then. However, in the local elections on November 1, 2021, which took place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption, the ANC had its worst election result since the end of apartheid, gaining less than 50 percent of the vote. More
S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (January 28, 2022): Ramaphosa Ponders Woman Running Mate in South African Party Race
Jakkie Cilliers, ISS Africa (January 27, 2022): South Africa’s future is tied to ANC leadership and election battles
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.
Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More
Sam Bradpiece, Al Jazeera (January 26, 2022): Interview: Guinean PM defends record following military coup
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed to December 2025
Mali had set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup, but the interim government has proposed a delay to December 2025, sparking a backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.
In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (who has since died at age 76, having been in poor health for years), dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.
On May 25, 2021, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid. Most recently, the government has proposed delaying the elections to December 2025, sparking the threat of sanctions from the regional bloc ECOWAS. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has called the interim government illegitimate, and the international community has condemned its failure to make progress against the jihadist threat that plages the Sahel.
Jeune Afrique (January 31, 2022): Mali: French ambassador kicked out over Russia accusations
Reuters (January 28, 2022): European Mali mission sets 2-week deadline for new plan – Danish defence minister
Amaury Hauchard, AFP (January 27, 2022): Sanctions put squeeze on Mali’s lucrative cotton sector
Lorne Cook, AP (January 26, 2022): EU warns Mali, Sahel states over use of Russian mercenaries
A Series of Coups
Ruth Maclean, New York Times (January 31, 2022): Ruth Maclean, New York Times (January 31, 2022): Five African Countries. Six Coups. Why Now?
Sébastien Whitechurch Brack, European Council on Foreign Relations (January 28, 2022): Beyond sanctions: How west Africa can recommit to democracy
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Ongoing
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: February 8, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup – delays possible)
Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 9, 2022
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays possible)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022
Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (due – delays possible)
Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022
Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023
Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)
South Sudan General Elections: By March 2023 (tentative)
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)
Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)
Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)
Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Togo Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: February 1, 2022
Last Updated: February 11, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 1, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Jordan Local Elections: March 22, 2022
Jordan will hold local elections on March 22, 2022. These follow parliamentary elections, which happened on November 10, 2020. Turnout was low, and both women and Islamist candidates saw poor results. Subsequently, King Abdullah II announced a new high-level committee to enact political reforms. This is not the first such effort in Jordan, and past attempts at change have been a disappointment to those who hope for reform, but it could be promising. Despite challenges, Jordan has generally been stable and politically moderate.
Jordan has been a close partner of the United States for several decades, and was designated a major non-NATO ally in 1996. More
Hanna Davis, Al Jazeera (January 31, 2022): Jordan: Critics denounce reforms ‘enlarging king’s authority’: A recent spate of constitutional amendments will give even more power to Jordan’s monarch at the expense of government, opponents say.
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022 and General Elections: Long Overdue
The Palestinian Authority is holding elections in two phases, the first of which took place on December 11, 2021, and the second of which is due on March 26, 2022. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 17 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006.
Hamas, which controls Gaza, did not allow the local elections to take place there in December and has said it will also bar the March elections.
Ben Cohen, Jewish News Syndicate (February 1 2022): What row over caricatures of Arafat tells us about Palestinian politics
Neville Teller, Jerusalem Post (February 1, 2022): Algeria’s last chance saloon on Palestinian reconciliation
Reuters (January 31, 2022): Blinken Discusses Palestinian Authority Reform With Mahmoud Abbas
AFP (January 25, 2022): Palestinian museum pulls Yasser Arafat artwork after outrage
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Lebanon has set parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.
Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that the upcoming elections could bring a hint of change.
Michael Young, The National UAE (February 1, 2022): With Hariri out, there is an imbalance of power in Lebanon’s Sunni community
Elise Ann Allen, Crux (February 1, 2022): Papal aide’s Lebanon visit will have political, pastoral tone
Reuters (January 30, 2022): Lebanon’s Hezbollah says it expects parliamentary election on time
Edward Gabriel, The Hill (January 29, 2022): An important turning point for Lebanon: Will it rise to the occasion?
Tom Perry and Laila Bassam, Reuters (January 26, 2022): Analysis: Lebanon slips further into Iran’s orbit as Hariri bows out
Dario Sabaghi, The New Arab (January 26, 2022): Lebanon’s 2022 elections: What to expect from the diaspora vote
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – could possibly happen by June 2022
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. The UN has urged elections by June 2022.
Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More
Samy Magdy, AP (January 31, 2022): Libya’s lawmakers push for new PM after failing to hold vote
Edith M. Lederer, AP (January 31, 2022): UN extends Libya mission after US-Russia dispute over envoy
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian (January 30, 2022): Libya elite told to end ‘game of musical chairs and focus on elections’: UN special adviser Stephanie Williams warns of resurgence of Islamic State if country is divided
Emily Milliken and Giorgio Cafiero, Al Jazeera (January 29, 2022): What next for world powers in war-torn Libya?
Benjamin Fox, Euractiv (January 25, 2022): EU reports ‘positive signs’ in Libya despite poll delay
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 15, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.
Financial Times (January 26, 2022): Tunisia’s president is leading it down a dangerous path
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Pakistan is due to hold its next general elections by October 12, 2023.
Ron Synovitz and Daud Khattak, RFE/RL (January 31, 2022): Pakistan’s Hard-Line Islamists Emboldened By Afghan Taliban’s Victory
Dawn Pakistan (January 29, 2022): PM Imran seeks Punjab local elections at the earliest
Past Middle East Elections
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.
The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.
The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge, and Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – will be the kingmaker in the new government. More
Sinan Mahmoud, The National UAE (January 31, 2022): Iraq’s political standoff continues as cleric Moqtada Al Sadr faces down rivals
Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post (January 31, 2022): Can Kurdish leaders bridge the Iraqi political gap? – analysis
Al-Monitor (January 28, 2022): Baghdad airport hit with rockets, no one hurt
Karwan Faidhi Dri, Rudaw (January 27, 2022): Iraqi parliament to elect a new president on February 7: statement
The New Arab (January 25, 2022): Iraq’s battle against IS cells grinds on in the desert
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: Overdue (delayed from December 24, 2021 – additional delays possible)
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023
Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: September 2023
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Israel Local Elections: October 2023
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: January 31, 2022
Last Updated: February 9, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 31, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Due, Indirect Presidential Election: By February 25, 2022 (tentative – preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, parties have agreed to complete the process by February 25, 2022, delayed from February 8, 2021, but are unlikely to meet the deadline. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays are exacerbating the country’s instability. Legislative election are underway, but proceeding slowly, and will unlikely be complete in time to meet the February 25 deadline for the presidential election.
Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More
Critical Threats (January 28, 2022): Africa File: Al Shabaab surges bombings amid Somali political crisis
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Foreign Affairs (January 26, 2022): Somalia’s Dangerous Authoritarian Turn
Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 9, 2022
Gambia has scheduled legislative and local elections for April 9, 2022. These follow the December 2021 presidential election, the first since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box.
In a 2016’s surprising election result, then-opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy. Jammeh sought to influence this election from exile (he is currently in Equatorial Guinea). Although Jammeh and Barrow had previously made a controversial pre-election deal, they abandoned it and Jammeh ultimately called on voters to oust Barrow, who nonetheless won re-election by a large margin. Even though international observers and Gambian civil society organizations have called the 2021 presidential election credible, some opposition candidates are challenging the results. More
Satang Nabaneh, The Conversation (January 27, 2022):: Why The Gambia should fast-track gender quotas for women
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays likely following coup) and Presidential and Legislative Elections: Possible, following coup
Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022, but delays are likely due to the growing security crisis and recent coup.
On January 24, 2022, a group of soldiers detained President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, dissolved the legislature, and declared that a military junta would control the country moving forward. This coup (which follows coups in nearby Guinea, Chad, and Mali) plunges the country’s political future into even greater uncertainty. Burkina Faso avoided an earlier coup attempt, and some analysts believed that a successful coup was only a matter of time given simmering discontent with Kabore’s handling of the jihadist threat and other issues.
Captain Sidsore Kaber Ouedraogo of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (the name the junta has given itself) says new elections will take place in the future, but has not specified a date. More
AP (January 31, 2022): African Union suspends Burkina Faso following military coup
Al Jazeera (January 28, 2022): ECOWAS due to discuss response to Burkina Faso coup
Clair MacDougall, Christian Science Monitor (January 28, 2022): Burkina Faso coup: How democracy crumbled under jihadi stress
Edward McAllister and Thiam Ndiaga, Reuters (January 27, 2022): Burkina Faso will return to constitutional order when conditions are right, military leader says
Georja Calvin-Smith and Laura DiBiasio, France24 (January 25, 2022 – video): Burkina Faso: Pro-junta protesters rally in Ouagadougou after coup
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022, followed by legislative elections in 2022 and a presidential election in 2024
Senegal is due to hold legislative elections by July 2022. These follow local elections that took place on January 23.
Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.
In the local elections, the opposition won in Dakar (which was already an opposition stronghold) and the southern city of Ziguinchor, where Sonko was elected mayor. Several candidates close to Sall, including health minister Abdoulaye Diouf Sarr, lost their races.
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. More
Marième Soumaré, The Africa Report (January 25, 2022): Senegal: Oppositionist Ousmane Sonko celebrates his election victory in Ziguinchor
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Because of the crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.
Mohammed Yusuf, Voice of America (January 28, 2022): Kenya on High Alert After France Warns of Impending Terror Attack
Eric Ombok and David Herbling, Bloomberg (January 27, 2022): Kenya Revises Law to Prop Political Coalitions Ahead of Vote
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Angola holds presidential and legislative elections in August 2022. The country has not to date held free elections. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, has been in power since since independence in 1975. For 38 years, the MPLA’s José Eduardo Dos Santos ruled Angola with an iron fist. His regime engaged in rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Dos Santos’s successor, João Lourenço, has enacted some reforms and sought to curtail corruption, but many issues remain. Moreover, local elections (the country’s first) have been delayed repeatedly, at times sparking protests. The political climate remains tense.
MPLA’s vote share has been steadily decreasing with each successive election: it received 81 percent of the vote in 2008, 72 percent in 2012, and 61 percent in 2017. For the upcoming elections, the three main opposition parties will back a single presidential candidate: Adalberto Costa Junior, leader of UNITA, the main opposition party.
Angola is one of the biggest oil producers in Africa. More
Peter Fabricius, Daily Maverick (January 25, 2022): Angola’s ruling MPLA begins international voter registration drive but analysts believe move will be party’s undoing
Lesotho General Elections: September or October 2022
Lesotho is due to hold general elections in September or October 2022, its third in six years.
Sabrine Donohoe, Foreign Brief (Janaury 28, 2022): Former Lesotho Prime Minister Thomas Thabane to step down as leader of the All Basotho Convention
Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels while fighting on the front lines. His son, 37-year-old General Mahamat Déby, declared himself interim leader, backed by the military. He dissolved parliament and promised elections within 18 months, by December 2022. However, it is unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote, and elections are riven by lengthy delays, violence, and fraud. More
Ali Aba Kaya, AFP (January 27, 2022): Chad junta postpones post-coup forum to May
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections on February 18, 2023, but some states are due to hold gubernatorial elections before that, including Ekiti and Osun states in 2022.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
David Pilling, Financial Times (January 31, 2022): What is Nigeria’s government for? Muhammadu Buhari may go but it’s not the leader who matters, the system itself must change
Harrison Edeh, International Centre for Investigative Reporting (January 25, 2022): Analysts tap 2023 election as major reason for suspending petrol subsidy
South Sudan Elections: By March 2023 (planned)
South Sudan plans to hold elections by March 2023, the first since independence in 2011. Salva Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. Additional election delays are possible.
Fred Oluoch, The East African (January 29, 2022): Juba asks global community for support to hold timely polls in 2023
David J. Scheffer and Madeline Babin, Council on Foreign Relations (January 28, 2022): Understanding South Sudan’s Postwar Struggle for Democracy and Accountability
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2023. These will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. However, democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, continues to govern in an authoritarian, repressive manner.
AFP (January 27, 2022): Zimbabwe opposition upbeat about polls despite crackdown
South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)
South Africa is due to hold general elections in May 2024.
Dubbed the “Rainbow Nation” by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, South Africa inspired the world with its nonviolent transition from apartheid in 1994. Since the end of apartheid and the subsequent victory of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nelson Mandela, the African National Congress (ANC) has been South Africa’s dominant political party, winning every election since then. However, in the local elections on November 1, 2021, which took place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption, the ANC had its worst election result since the end of apartheid, gaining less than 50 percent of the vote. More
S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (January 28, 2022): Ramaphosa Ponders Woman Running Mate in South African Party Race
Jakkie Cilliers, ISS Africa (January 27, 2022): South Africa’s future is tied to ANC leadership and election battles
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.
Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More
Sam Bradpiece, Al Jazeera (January 26, 2022): Interview: Guinean PM defends record following military coup
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed to December 2025
Mali had set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup, but the interim government has proposed a delay to December 2025, sparking a backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.
In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (who has since died at age 76, having been in poor health for years), dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.
On May 25, 2021, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid. Most recently, the government has proposed delaying the elections to December 2025, sparking the threat of sanctions from the regional bloc ECOWAS. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has called the interim government illegitimate, and the international community has condemned its failure to make progress against the jihadist threat that plages the Sahel.
Jeune Afrique (January 31, 2022): Mali: French ambassador kicked out over Russia accusations
Reuters (January 28, 2022): European Mali mission sets 2-week deadline for new plan – Danish defence minister
Amaury Hauchard, AFP (January 27, 2022): Sanctions put squeeze on Mali’s lucrative cotton sector
Lorne Cook, AP (January 26, 2022): EU warns Mali, Sahel states over use of Russian mercenaries
A Series of Coups
Ruth Maclean, New York Times (January 31, 2022): Ruth Maclean, New York Times (January 31, 2022): Five African Countries. Six Coups. Why Now?
Sébastien Whitechurch Brack, European Council on Foreign Relations (January 28, 2022): Beyond sanctions: How west Africa can recommit to democracy
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Ongoing
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: February 8, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup – delays possible)
Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 9, 2022
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays possible)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022
Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (due – delays possible)
Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022
Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023
Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)
South Sudan General Elections: By March 2023 (tentative)
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)
Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)
Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)
Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Togo Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: January 29, 2022
Last Updated: February 9, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 29, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there will be 25 presidential candidates from various parties.
Cindy Regidor, France24 (January 29, 2022 – in Spanish): With 25 candidates for the Presidency, Costa Rica begins the electoral year in Latin America
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the current frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. Ingrid Betancourt, a former FARC hostage who was kidnapped while running for president in 2002, is also running, on a platform of national reconciliation. She had originally planned to run in the center coalition’s primary, but since withdrew from the coalition and announced that she would be an independent candidate.
The country has been rocked by protests beginning in April 2021. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests grew violent, leading to dozens of deaths.
Santiago Torrado, El País (January 29, 2022): Ingrid Betancourt leaves the center coalition in Colombia
Ezra Fieser and Andrea Jaramillo, Bloomberg (January 28, 2022): Colombia Front-Runner Petro’s No-More-Oil Pledge Sinks Ecopetrol Bonds
Inés Santaeulalia, El País (January 27, 2022 – in Spanish): Ingrid Betancourt gives an ultimatum to the center coalition and threatens to withdraw
John Padilla and Sergio Guzmán, Foreign Policy (January 25, 2022): As China Eyes Colombia, the United States Is AWOL: The country is a test case for Beijing’s encroachment in Latin America.
Mexico State and Local Elections: June 5, 2022, followed by Presidential Election: July 2024 (due)
Mexico’s next presidential election is due on July 2024. However, each year has some state and local elections. In June 2022, six states hold gubernatorial elections: Aguascalientes, Durango (also holding local elections), Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Tamaulipas.
The last elections were high-stakes midterm legislative elections, as well as gubernatorial elections in 15 of Mexico’s 31 states, and local elections, on June 6, 2021. In total, more than 21,000 offices are at stake – the biggest elections in Mexico’s history. The 2021 elections were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results have made it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
Inés San Martin, Crux (January 25, 2022): Mexican cardinals found guilty of trying to influence federal elections
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
Catherine Osborne, Foreign Policy (January 28, 2022): What the Death of Two Cultural Giants Says About Brazil Today: Political opposites Olavo de Carvalho and Elza Soares garnered vast youth followings in the final years of their lives.
Chase Harrington, AS/COA (January 25, 2022): Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2022 Presidential Election
Anthony Boadle, AP (January 24, 2022): China-Brazil ties to get boost if Lula wins, says ex foreign minister
Past Americas Elections
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Barbados held snap parliamentary elections on January 19, a year early, following a decision made in September 2021 to remove the British monarch as head of state and become a republic. The incumbent center-left Barbados Labor Party (BLP, knicknamed the “Bees”) won in a landslide (after winning all 30 seats in the last elections). Prime Minister Mia Mottley will remain in office.
Previously, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP, “Dems”) held power for 10 years. The DLP is seen as being to the left of the BLP, having been founded by a group that broke away in 1955 (the BLP was founded in 1938). However, politics in Barbados tends to be driven by personalities.
Judith Mwai and Lauren Ashmore, The Diplomat (January 27, 2022): Barbados’ New Republic: A Win for China? Centering Barbados’ decision to end ties with the British monarchy around China only underscores the problem: The U.K.’s lack of interest in Barbados and similar countries.
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras held presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidential race.
These elections took place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Some feared post-election turmoil this year, but Nasry Asfura, the National Party’s candidate, conceded.
On the geopolitical front, Honduras is one of the few countries that maintains formal diplomatic relations Taiwan, but Beijing has been pressuring politicians to change that. LIBRE had said that it would switch its recognition to Beijing, but has not done so yet and could potentially change its mind. More
AP (January 27, 2022): Honduras’ new president sworn in amid congressional impasse
Al Jazeera (January 25, 2022): Taiwan vice president heads to Honduras to work on shaky alliance: Honduran President-elect Xiomara Castro had floated the idea of re-establishing ties with China, before backtracking.
AFP (January 25, 2022): Honduras political crisis deepens ahead of president-elect’s swearing-in
Marlon Gonzalez, AP (January 23, 2022): Honduran Congress splits, threatens new president’s plans
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
On January 9, opposition candidate Sergio Garrido won a surprise victory in Barinas state, the birthplace of none other than Hugo Chavez. The vote took place because the original opposition candidate was disqualified retroactively.
AP (January 27, 2022): In Venezuela, ‘impossible’ conditions for a presidential recall, critics said: A government-friendly electoral board imposed limits on recall petitions that backers said were impossible to meet.
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Canada held snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hoped to win a majority for his Liberals. He ended up remaining in power, but once again helming a minority government. His gamble did not pay off.
Angus Reid Institute (January 27, 2022): Minority Management: Half of Canadians expect another federal election within two years
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022
Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)
Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022
Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)
Jamaica Local Elections: By February 2023
Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)
Ecuador Regional Elections: March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: January 28, 2022
Last Updated: February 8, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 28, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024.
First up: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 20 to March 7. Punjab will also vote on February 20.
Rajrishi Singhal, Quartz (January 27, 2022): The Indian government may try to budget its way out of economic funk and poll trouble
Mohit Kumar, Los Angeles Blade (January 25, 2022): Election in India’s most popular state seen as crucial LGBTQ rights test
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Robert J. Fouser, Korea Herald (January 28, 2022): [Robert J. Fouser] The 386 Generation’s first president
Victor Cha, Foreign Policy (January 26, 2022): Why South Korea’s Presidential Election Matters to the U.S.: It’s the first in recent memory to feature substantive foreign-policy differences between the ruling and opposition camps.
Gi-Wook Shin, Council on Foreign Relations (January 26, 2022): What Does Korea’s 2022 Presidential Election Mean for its Democracy?
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) will hold a presidential election in March 2022. Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although some challenges remain.
The current president, Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo, was elected in 2017.
Michael Rose, DevPolicyBlog (January 28, 2022): Timor-Leste in 2021: in troubled times a nation comes of age
Nelson Da Cruz and Kate Lamb, Reuters (January 24, 2022): East Timor’s Ramos-Horta to make new run for presidency
Michael Leach, Lowy Institute (January 24, 2022): Timor-Leste: comebacks and contests ahead of presidential elections
Malaysia, Early Elections in Johor: By March 2022, and Early General Elections: Expected
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, subsequently held state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency, and Sabah, the other Borneo state, also held polls.
Next up: Johor, which borders Singapore, will hold elections by March 2022 after the state’s chief minister dissolved the state legislature (elections were originally due in 2023).
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
Hadi Azmi, South China Morning Post (January 25, 2022): In Johor election, is Malaysia’s Umno seeking stability or a ‘get-out-of-jail’ card for Najib?
Francis E Hutchinson, Channel News Asia (January 26, 2022): Commentary: Elections in Johor – why call for them now amid Omicron wave?
Muzlila Mustafa, Noah Lee, and Nisha David, BenarNews (January 24, 2022): Analysts: Upcoming State Poll in Malaysia May Pave Way for National Elections
Zsombor Peter, Voice of America (January 23, 2022): Malaysia’s Top Anti-Corruption Cop Sues Whistleblower for Defamation
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who is not actually politically aligned with Duterte (in the Philippines, the president and vice president are elected separately, and Robredo ran in the last election on the Liberal Party ticket in opposition to Duterte).
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Andreo Calonzo, Bloomberg (January 28, 2022): How Another Marcos Could Win Power in the Philippines
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (January 28, 2022): Philippines’ Marcos to Pursue Bilateral Deal With Beijing Over South China Sea: The leading candidate’s comments suggest that his victory in May could lead to an extension of President Rodrigo Duterte’s divisive China policy.
Reuters (January 27, 2022): Pacquiao challenges Philippine officials to disclose wealth
Reuters (January 23, 2022): Philippines’ presidential hopefuls tout post-pandemic recovery plans: Frontrunner Marcos declines to take part, citing broadcaster bias
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More
Lisa Visentin, Sydney Morning Herald (January 27, 2022): ‘Most complex in history’: Australian Electoral Commission prepares for 2022 federal poll
Kirsty Needham and Eduardo Baptista, Reuters (January 24, 2022): Australia PM Morrison loses control of WeChat Chinese account as election looms
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
David Hutt, DW (January 24, 2022): Cambodia: EU draws criticism over ‘inaction’ against opposition crackdown
Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 14, 2024 and Provincial Elections: November 27, 2024
Indonesia has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for February 14, 2024, followed by provincial elections on November 27, 2024, ending speculation that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would seek to delay the election and extend his term.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics. More
Bloomberg (January 25, 2022): Indonesia sets date for 2024 election, ending Jokowi speculation
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Nepal National Assembly Elections: January 26, 2022 (voting for 1/3 of upper house)
Nepal held indirect elections for a third of the National Assembly, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on January 26, 2022, and several other sets of elections could take place within the next year.
Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Kathmandu Post (January 29, 2022): Ruling alliance to consult legal experts, again, on local elections
Sujeev Shakya, East Asia Forum (January 28, 2022): Political turmoil does Nepal no favours
Anish Rau Mulmi, Carnegie Endowment (January 27, 2022): Can Nepal’s Latest Citizen-Led Street Protests Shake Things Up?
Shiva Gaunle, Online Khabar (January 26, 2022): Why govt plan to delay local elections puts Nepal democracy in peril
Republica Nepal (January 26, 2022): Ruling alliance secures victory in 18 of 19 seats in National Assembly poll (With list of elected candidates)
Anil Giri, Kathmandu Post (January 23, 2022): Confusion in Nepali Congress over polls, particularly local elections
Shirish B Pradhan, The Print (January 21, 2022): Nepal PM Deuba calls for three-tier elections within a year
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong held elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect. More
Cheryl Tung and Jojo Man, Radio Free Asia (January 27, 2022): More than 100 charged under Hong Kong’s national security law amid ongoing crackdown: Elections for the city’s leader are ‘meaningless,’ as the winner will be dictated by Beijing, an analyst says.
Peter Lee, Hong Kong Free Press (January 27, 2022): Elections for Hong Kong’s 18 legislative panels all uncontested, except one
Natalie Wong, Gary Cheung, and Chris Lau, South China Morning Post (January 26, 2022): Hong Kong election: guidelines for chief executive race due out Thursday but kick-off date for nominations still ‘being decided by Beijing’, sources say
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Nepal Provincial Elections: April or May 2022 (due)
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: January 27, 2022
Last Updated: February 8, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 27, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022 (proposed)
Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has called a constitutional referendum for February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The proposed changes would allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035. Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.
The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue.
In addition, Russia has been moving troops to Belarus in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine or other neighboring countries. More
Andrew Roth, The Guardian (January 25, 2022): ‘Cyberpartisans’ hack Belarusian railway to disrupt Russian buildup: Activists claim they could paralyse trains moving Russian forces for potential attack on Ukraine
Gustav Gressel and Pavel Slunkin, Foreign Policy Research Institute (January 25, 2022): Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
Aiday Erkebaeva, Eurasianet (January 24, 2022): The weaponization of homophobia in Kyrgyzstan and Belarus: Authoritarian students have learned from their sponsors in Russia that wedge issues are useful for marginalizing the opposition.
Belsat (January 23, 2022): Another Belarusian detained after discussing amendments to Constitution
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 2023 and Presidential Election: By March 2024
Ukraine is due to hold parliamentary elections in 2023 and a presidential election in 2024. In the last presidential vote, in 2019, Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko running on an anti-establishment platform. However, since then, the country’s traditional pro-Europe and pro-Moscow political forces have regained ground.
Russia’s military aggression, which began in 2014, continues, and the threat of further invasion looms large.
David Roger Marples, The Conversation (January 27, 2022): Russia has reached the point of no return in its conflict with Ukraine
Michael Schwirtz, David E. Sanger and Mark Landler, New York Times (January 24, 2022): Britain Says Moscow Is Plotting to Install a Pro-Russian Leader in Ukraine: In a highly unusual public statement, backed by U.S. officials, London named the putative head of a potential puppet government but few other details.
Past Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021
Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature.
A series of protests in January 2022 rocked the country and left as many as 225 people dead, as well as a reported 12,000 people in detention. Russia briefly sent personnel under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), its military alliance of several post-Soviet states. More
Dmitriy Mazorenko and Almas Kaisar, openDemocracy (January 27, 2022): On the ground in Kazakhstan’s protests: what really happened?
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL (January 25, 2022): After Kazakhstan’s ‘Bloody January,’ Can Toqaev Ever Gain The People’s Support?
AP (January 25, 2022): Explainer: What Post-unrest Reforms Is Kazakhstan Proposing?
Valerie Hopkins, New York Times (January 25, 2022): Kazakhstan’s Longtime Leader Is Gone, but Still Seemingly Everywhere
Laura Pitel, Financial Times (January 25, 2022): Kazakhstan unrest shows Erdogan that Putin is still the regional ‘big boss’: Russian role in recent protest deals blow to Turkish president as he seeks to cultivate pan-Turkic unity
Gabriel Gavin, The Diplomat (January 25, 2022): After Kazakhstan, the CSTO Isn’t Finished With Central Asia
Margaret Hu, The Conversation (January 24, 2022): Kazakhstan’s internet shutdown is the latest episode in an ominous trend: digital authoritarianism
Naubet Bisenov, NBC News (January 21, 2022): Life returns to normality in Almaty, Kazakhstan, as Russian troops leave city
Georgia Local Elections: October 2 and 30, 2021
Georgia held local elections on October 2 and 30, 2021 in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of former president Mikheil Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote. Runoffs took place on October 30, including for the important role of mayor of Tbilisi, which the ruling Georgian Dream party failed to win in the first round. Ultimately, Georgian Dream did win the second round amid criticism from the opposition.
A recent uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically.
The next parliamentary elections are due in October 2024, but snap elections could happen. More
Marie Dumoulin and Tefta Kelmendi, European Council on Foreign Relations (January 26, 2022): Lost in the Dream: How the EU can end the political deadlock in Georgia
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 2022 (due)
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.