Eurasia This Week: January 20, 2022

Eurasia this week January 20 2022

January 20, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A government building in Mogilev, in eastern Belarus. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Alexander Lipilin (CC BY-SA 2.5)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 2022 (proposed)

Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has announced plans to hold a constitutional referendum in February 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.

The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. 

In addition, Russia has been moving troops to Belarus in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine. More

Yuras Karmanau, AP (January 20, 2022): Belarus calls referendum that could strengthen Lukashenko

AP (January 20, 2022): U.S. charges Belarus officials with air piracy in reporter’s arrest

AFP (January 19, 2022): US fears arrival of Russian troops could lead to nuclear weapons in Belarus

Andrew Roth, The Guardian (January 17, 2022): Russia moves troops to Belarus for joint exercises near Ukraine border: Move likely to stoke invasion fears as war games also planned near borders of Nato members Poland and Lithuania

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 2023 and Presidential Election: By March 2024

Ukraine holds parliamentary elections in 2023 and a presidential election in 2024. In the last presidential vote, in 2019, Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko running on an anti-establishment platform. However, since then, the country’s traditional pro-Europe and pro-Moscow political forces have regained ground.

Russia’s military aggression, which began in 2014, continues, and the threat of further invasion looms large.

Kevin Breuninger, CNBC (January 20, 2022): U.S. sanctions four Russian-linked actors for allegedly working to destabilize Ukraine

David L. Stern, Washington Post (January 17, 2022): Former Ukrainian president Poroshenko returns home to face treason charges amid tensions with Russia

James Verini and photos by Paolo Pellegrin, New York Times (January 16, 2022 – photo essay): In the Trenches of Ukraine’s Forever War

Past Eurasia Elections

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021

Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More

Ayzirek Imanaliyeva, Eurasianet (January 19, 2022): Kyrgyzstan: Pressure piled on nationalist opposition party

Russia Parliamentary Elections: September 17-19, 2021

Russia held parliamentary elections September 17-19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.

Consequently, the Kremlin launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him were banned from the election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – was able to field candidates. 

Moreover, international technology companies such as Google and Apple assisted the regime by removing apps associated with Navalny’s Smart Vote. More

Regina Smith, The Conversation (January 20, 2022): A year after Navalny’s return, Putin remains atop a changed Russia

Owen Matthews, The Spectator (January 15, 2022): Haunted: the spectre of revolution is stalking Putin

Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021

Moldova held snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.

Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.

Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova. More

RFE/RL (January 20, 2022): Moldova Introduces State Of Emergency Amid Russian Gas Crisis

Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (January 18, 2022): Moldova in 2022: Reformists in Power in Year of Turbulence

Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021

Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin. Political tensions remain.

JAMnews (January 19, 2022): Armenian PM wins Pashinyan v Armenia case in Strasbourg court

Laura Pitel, Financial Times (January 14, 2022): Turkish and Armenian envoys meet for normalisation talks

Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021

Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature.

A series of protests in January 2022 rocked the country and left as many as 225 people dead, as well as a reported 12,000 people in detention. Russia briefly sent personnel under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), its military alliance of several post-Soviet states. More

Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet (January 20, 2022): Kazakhstan: De-Nazarbayevification picks up steam, but is it just for show?

Arkady Dubnov, Al Jazeera (January 16, 2022): Kazakhstan: A coup, a counter-coup and a Russian victory: The unrest in Kazakhstan led to consolidation of power in the country and may affect the transition of power in Russia.

Reuters (January 15, 2022): Kazakhstan puts unrest death toll at 225

Farangis Najibullah, RFE/RL (January 15, 2022): ‘Fight Far From Over’ For One Kazakh Protester, Despite Clampdown On Demonstrations

Colleen Wood, The Diplomat (January 14, 2022): Kazakhstan: Local Politics and the Chaos in Almaty: Resolving discontent with Almaty’s local government will be an important step in Kazakhstan’s broader political reform efforts.

Tom Burgis, Financial Times (January 13, 2022): Nazarbayev and the power struggle over Kazakhstan’s future

Ivan Nechepurenko, New York Times (January 13, 2022): Russian-Led Alliance Begins Withdrawing Troops From Kazakhstan

AP (January 13, 2022): After Kazakhstan Unrest, Relatives Await Detainees’ Release: Authorities have refused to allow relatives or lawyers to see the 12,000 people reportedly in custody, giving little information about them.

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022

Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 2022 (due)

Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Europe This Week: January 19, 2022

Europe this week January 19 2022

January 19, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

The Zindan Gate of Belgrade Fortress. Serbia voters approved a January 16 referendum on constitutional changes related to the judiciary ahead of April 3 early elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Magyshadow (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Europe Elections

Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022

On January 23, 2022, Finland will hold elections to newly-created county councils. These councils will assume responsibility for providing healthcare (the responsibility previously fell to municipal councils).

Following the 2019 parliamentary elections, a left-leaning coalition came into government nationally. The conservative National Coalition Party won the most seats in the local elections, with the Social Democrats placing second. The far-right Finns Party made gains in its vote share. More

YLE News (January 12, 2022): Advance voting underway in Finland’s first county council elections

Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Begins January 24, 2022

Italy’s parliament will begin the process of choosing a president on January 24. Although Italy’s president does not have much formal executive power, current president Sergio Mattarella, who is not seeking another term, has become increasingly powerful as a mediator in Italy’s recent series of political crises.

Current prime minister Mario Draghi has indicated interest in the role, which could trigger snap elections if the current broad coalition of right and left-wing parties does not hold together. Italy is currently not due for parliamentary elections until 2023. Some fear another bout of instability if Draghi leaves his current role – Draghi’s accession to the role of prime minister ended the last round of political chaos.

In addition, none other than former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi – currently age 85 – is also angling for the role in a campaign dubbed “Operation Squirrel.” Numerous other political figures could be put forward for nomination.

Paola Subacchi, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (January 19, 2022): Presidential election could put Italy’s Draghi-led recovery at risk

Francesco Pesole, Paolo Pizzoli, and Antonie Bouvet, ING (January 18, 2022): A market’s guide to Italy’s upcoming presidential election

Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, Financial Times (January 18, 2022): Silvio Berlusconi makes long-shot bid for presidency of Italy: Comeback for former premier, 85, seen as unlikely but attempt could put political unity at risk

Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022

Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, two years early, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government

Paul Ames, Politico (January 20, 2022): Heartlands key as António Costa seeks majority in Portugal’s early election: Socialists lead in polls, but struggle to find allies in fractured political landscape.

BBC (January 14, 2022): Lisbon council fined for sharing protester details with foreign embassies

Germany Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022, followed by Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022, and Lower Saxony State Elections: October 8, 2022

Germany holds several sets of state elections in 2022, following the “Superwahljahr” (Super Election Year) of 2021, which saw the defeat of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a new “traffic light coalition” government consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.

Ken Moriyasu, Nikkei Asia (January 19, 2022): German leader juggles China policy, balancing profits and principles

Nikolas K. Gvosdev and Nils Schmidt, Foreign Policy Research Institute (January 18, 2022): Germany’s Future after the “Merkel Era”?

Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022

Hungary is holding parliamentary elections on April 3, 2022. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.

A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.

Lili Bayer, Politico (January 19, 2022): MEPs call for full-scale election observation in Hungary: The unusual move reflects deepening concerns over democratic backsliding in Hungary and the legitimacy of its institutions.

Ábrahám Voss, Hungary Today (January 17, 2022): Opposition PM Candidate Márki-Zay Challenges Orbán to Public Debate

Daniel Nolan, openDemocracy (January 14, 2022): Meet the conservative who could unseat Viktor Orbán

Amanda Rivkin, DW (January 13, 2022): Hungary: Civil society groups request election observers: Twenty Hungarian civil society organizations called for international observers during elections in April. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already challenged the legitimacy of elections in the country he controls.

Craig Turp-Balazs, Emerging Europe (January 12, 2022): Hungary sets April date for parliamentary election, with PM Viktor Orbán facing his toughest challenge yet

RFE/RL (January 12, 2022): Hungary Caps Prices On Basic Foods As Inflation Pinches Families Ahead Of Elections

Serbia Constitutional Referendum: January 16, 2022, followed by Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022

Serbia holds early presidential and legislative elections on April 3, following a constitutional referendum on January 16 in which voters approved constitutional changes related to the judiciary – a move some hope will bring Serbia closer to EU membership. The last elections, snap parliamentary elections in June 2020, took place in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.

Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.

Milica Stojanovic, Balkan Insight (January 16, 2022): Serbia Votes ‘Yes’ to Judiciary Constitution Changes

Reuters (January 14, 2022): U.S. and its allies welcome Serbia’s Jan. 16 referendum on constitutional changes

France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.

While many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.

As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Republicans have selected Valérie Pécresse, president of the regional council of Île-de-France. The Socialists chose Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo as their candidate. Pécresse has polled in second and could very realistically beat both of the far-right candidates and make it to the runoff.

Maïa de la Baume and Rym Momtaz, Politico (January 19, 2022): Macron’s EU speech descends into French campaign brawl: The sparring illustrates how much France’s presidential election is looming over the country’s rotating EU presidency.

John Keiger, The Spectator (January 18, 2022): Could Marine Le Pen be shut out of France’s election?

Joseph Choi, The Hill (January 17, 2022): Far-right French presidential candidate fined for remarks about young migrants

Hannah Thompson, Connexion France (January 17, 2022): France’s far-left holds election rally with ‘smell and visual effects’

Louise Nordstrom, France24 (January 16, 2022): Valérie Pécresse: ‘The Bulldozer’ conservative who vows to restore French pride

France24 (January 15, 2022): Former justice minister Christiane Taubira joins France’s presidential race

Euronews with AFP (January 13, 2022): France election: Le Pen and Zemmour make French far-right ‘most suicidal’ in the world 

United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022

The United Kingdom holds local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly (although the Northern Ireland elections could take place earlier). The Northern Ireland elections could be a watershed. Polling suggests that unionist parties could lose their majority and the nationalist Sinn Féin could become the biggest party. By far the biggest issue in public debate is Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements following Brexit.

In last year’s local elections, the Conservatives made gains on councils, particularly in England, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament. In the high-stakes Scottish Parliament elections, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) won the most seats after campaigning on another independence referendum, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum. All of Scotland’s local councils are up for election in 2022. The SNP is currently the biggest party in local government, and it is worth watching whether they make gains this year.

Jon Stone, The Independent (January 19, 2022): UK government U-turns on ‘double jobbing’ for Northern Ireland politicians

Joe Barnes and James Crisp, The Telegraph (January 13, 2022): Liz Truss targets Northern Ireland Protocol deal by end of March: Two sides expected to agree timetable for intensive talks in attempt to broker compromise before Stormont elections

Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)

Austria is due to hold a presidential election in Fall 2022, although in Austria’s parliamentary system, the role is largely ceremonial. Recently, the double resignation of center-right chancellor Sebastian Kurz and subsequently his successor, Alexander Schallenberg, has shaken politics. General elections to select the next government are not due until 2024, but snap elections remain possible. In addition, a number of states hold state and local elections in 2023.

Hayley Maguire, The Local (January 18, 2022): How does Austria’s presidential election work?

Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. 

BiH consists of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mostly by Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats, and the Republika Srpska, with mostly Orthodox Serbs. Recently, tensions have flared as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has used increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and taken actions that some analysts see as moving toward secession.

Irvin Pekmez, Balkan Insight (January 19, 2022): Bosnia’s Dodik Courts French Far-Right before Le Pen Presidency Bid

Carl Bildt, Project Syndicate (January 18, 2022): Bosnia’s Next Crisis

Reuters (January 18, 2022): Turkey’s Erdogan, Serbia’s Vucic agree to broker Bosnia crisis talks

Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: By August 2024

Montenegro is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2024, but snap polls are possible. The last elections, the fifth since independence in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro became the next prime minister. The political base of the Krivokapic’s coalition is generally pro-Moscow.

The government currently faces a no-confidence motion, which could lead to early elections in May if it succeeds.

Samir Kajosevic, Balkan Insight (January 19, 2022): Montenegro’s ‘Blocked’ Government Faces No-Confidence Motion

European Western Balkans (January 19, 2022): Reactions from the EU to the new government proposal in Montenegro: Reforms should be unblocked

Past Europe Elections

Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021

Bulgaria held a presidential election on November 14 along with parliamentary elections – the third this year after no one could form a government following the first two. It appears that the third time was a charm, as a new political party called We Continue the Change (whose founders tout their Harvard credentials) formed a broad coalition.

The elections brought major change, ousting former PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB, which had governed for most of the last 12 years. The country also saw the rise of a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, which came in second in the April elections and first in the July elections. Despite being edged out by We Continue the Change in November, ITN will be part of the new coalition. The other parties in the government will be the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the centrist/center-right Democratic Bulgaria coalition.

Bulgaria is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU); however, it remains the poorest and most corrupt member of the EU. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to influence Bulgaria. Moreover, Bulgaria is currently embroiled in a diplomatic dispute with neighboring North Macedonia involving issues of language and history. Last year, it blocked North Macedonia’s EU accession. This comes on the heels of North Macedonia literally changing its name in order to get Greece to stop blocking its NATO and EU membership. More

AP (January 19, 2022): Bulgarian president takes oath of office for second term

Reuters (January 17, 2022): Bulgaria’s anti-corruption chief resigns as government seeks reforms

North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021

North Macedonia held local elections on October 17, 2021 which delivered a landslide victory for the conservative/nationalist opposition VMRO-DPMNE and resulted in the resignation of PM Zoran Zaev of the Social Democratic Union (SDSM). These follow parliamentary elections in July 2020 in which SDSM won a second term. North Macedonia’s next general elections are not due until 2024, but the opposition is calling for snap polls in light of the results of the local elections.

Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up).

The country’s politics remain fragmented and fractious.

Konstantin Testorides, AP (January 18, 2022): Bulgarian PM visits North Macedonia to boost battered ties: The new prime ministers of North Macedonia and Bulgaria have agreed to redouble efforts to improve relations between the two Balkan neighbors, which soured after Bulgaria blocked North Macedonia’s bid to join the European Union

Sinisa Jakov Marusic, Balkan Insight (January 17, 2022): North Macedonia’s Newly Elected PM Faces Raft of Challenges

Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021

The Czech Republic held parliamentary elections October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. Ultimately, an opposition coalition of the center-right and the center-left Pirates narrowly defeated Babis and are expected to form the next government. More

Aneta Zachová, Euractiv (January 19, 2022): Former Czech PM Babis to be stripped of immunity

Matt K., Global Risk Insights (January 17, 2022): Sino-Czech Relations: Change on the Horizon

Peter Laca and Lenka Ponikelska, Bloomberg (January 13, 2022): Czechs Ratify New Government That Vows to Repair Ties With EU

Europe’s Relationship with China

Catherine Jones, London School of Economics (January 13, 2022): Understanding China-EU relations in the context of the Belt and Road initiative

Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022

Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022

Italy Indirect Presidential Election: January 24, 2022

Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022

Netherlands Local Elections: March 16, 2022

Germany, Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022

Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022

Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, plus Belgrade City Assembly Elections: April 3, 2022

France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022

Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022

United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022

Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022

Iceland Local Elections

Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022

France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)

Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022

Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022

Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022

Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022

Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022

Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)

Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)

Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023

Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)

Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)

Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)

Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)

Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023

Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)

Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)

Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023

Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)

Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)

Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023

Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)

Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)

Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023

Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023

Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023

Norway Local Elections: September 2023

Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023

Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023

Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)

Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023

Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Middle East This Week: January 18, 2022

Middle East This Week January 18 2022

January 18, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A building of Al-Isra University College in Baghdad. Iraq’s government formation negotiations continue following October’s elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Mahmoudalrawi (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022 and General Elections: Long Overdue

The Palestinian Authority is holding elections in two phases, the first of which took place on December 11, 2021, and the second of which is due on March 26, 2022. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 17 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006. 

Hamas, which controls Gaza, did not allow the local elections to take place there in December and has said it will also bar the March elections.

Michael Jansen, Irish Times (January 11, 2022): Abbas enters his 17th year in power amid criticism and uncertainty: Long-tenured Palestinian leader’s crowning achievement has yet to achieve desired results

Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022

Lebanon has set parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.

Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that the upcoming elections could bring a hint of change.

Editorial Board, The National UAE (January 18, 2022): The end of Hezbollah’s boycott is unlikely to bring progress to Lebanon

Dave Gavlak Voice of America (January 12, 2022): Political Opponents Reject Lebanese President’s Call for Dialogue

Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 15, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022

Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.  Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.

Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.

Al Jazeera (January 15, 2022): Tunisia police use water cannon to disperse protesters

Alexander Martin and John M. Carey, Arab Reform Initiative (January 13, 2022): Why Tunisia’s parliamentary electoral formula needs to be changed

Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – could possibly happen by June 2022

Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. The UN has urged elections by June 2022.

Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More

Matthew Zais, Atlantic Council (January 14, 2022): Where is the United States? Military basing and energy are the real prizes in Libya.

Samy Magdy, AP (January 17, 2022): UN official: Libya elections could be rescheduled for June

Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Bahrain is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. Since a 2011 uprising, Bahrain has become increasingly authoritarian and repressive, especially vis a vis the Shi’ite opposition (Bahrain is more than half Shi’hite but ruled by a Sunni royal family). The opposition was barred from participating in the last elections in 2018. Moreover, the monarch has executive power as well as the power to appoint the prime minister and cabinet. Therefore, parliament is generally not very powerful.

Human Rights Watch (January 13, 2022): Bahrain: Repression Marks Uprising Anniversary

Turkey General Elections: By June 18, 2023 (snap elections possible)

Turkey is due for general elections in June 2023, but there have been rumors of possible snap elections, and more than half of Turkish citizens want an early vote.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.

Andrew Wilks, Al-Monitor (January 14, 2022): Journalists in Turkey see media domain narrowing as elections approach

Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023

Pakistan is due to hold its next general elections by October 12, 2023.

Benjamin Parker and Farhan Bokhari, Financial Times (January 18, 2022): Taliban victory unleashes hardline forces in Pakistan: Imran Khan welcomed Islamists’ conquest but is struggling to contain emboldened extremists at home

Hamid Mir, Washington Post (January 11, 2022): Opinion: Why 2022 is shaping up to be a nightmare year for Imran Khan

Past Middle East Elections

Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021

Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.

The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.

The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge, and Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – will be the kingmaker in the new government. More 

Cathrin Schaer, DW (January 18, 2022): Hope for democracy in Iraq as political violence escalates

Dilan Sirwan, Rudaw (January 18, 2022): Sadrists will make final call on government formation: official

Jane Arraf, New York Times (January 13, 2022): Rockets Possibly Fired by Pro-Iran Assailants Target U.S. Embassy in Iraq

AP (January 11, 2022): Iraq’s Shiite divide makes forging government tough task

Sinan Mahmoud, The National UAE (January 11, 2022): Pro-Iran Shiite factions in Iraq warn of ‘tough days’ amid election row

Thanassis Cambanis, World Politics Review (January 11, 2022): Iraq Is One Step Closer to Forming a New Government

Israel Parliamentary Elections, Take 4: March 23, 2021

On March 23, 2021, Israel held its fourth general election in two years after the collapse of the unity government of Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. Neither Netanyahu’s allies nor his opponents won a majority. Netanyahu, whose conservative Likud party won the most seats, had the first chance to form a coalition, but he failed. Subsequently, Yair Lapid from the centrist Yesh Atid formed a broad coalition with conservative Naftali Bennett, with Bennett as prime minister for a time before rotating the position to Lapid. A number of other parties are in the coalition, which passed a Knesset vote on June 14, thus ending Netanyahu’s 12 years in office. However, the coalition remains tenuous. More

Tia Goldenberg, Times of Israel (January 17, 2022): How Islamist lawmaker Mansour Abbas has shaken up Israeli politics

Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019

Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.

Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.

Atal Ahmadzai and Faten Ghosn, The Conversation (January 18, 2022): Taliban 2.0 aren’t so different from the first regime, after all

Robyn Dixon, Washington Post (January 10, 2022): Russian political action man sets up shop in Kabul in bid to win deals for Moscow

Regional Analysis

Courtney Freer, Brookings Institution (January 12, 2022): 21st century Bedouin politics: Considering the modern power of tribes in the Arabian Peninsula

Rafiah Al Talei, Carnegie Endowment (January 11, 2022): The Arab Youth:
Aspirations for the New Year

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: January 24, 2021 (delayed from December 24, 2021 – additional delays possible)

Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022

Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022

Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022

Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022

Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023

Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: September 2023

Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023

Israel Local Elections: October 2023

Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023

United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)

Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled

Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19

Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Africa This Week: January 17, 2022

Africa This Week January 17 2022

January 17, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

The library at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar, Senegal, an example of distinctive “forceful geometry” that has become a characteristic of Dakar’s architecture. Senegal holds local elections on January 23. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Bess Sadler (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022, followed by legislative elections in 2022 and a presidential election in 2024

Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 23, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022.

Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.

A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. More

Mawunyo Hermann Boko, Jeune Afrique (January 13, 2022 – in French): Local Elections in Senegal: Main opposition coalition refuses to sign non-violence charter

Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Due, Indirect Presidential Election: By February 25, 2022 (tentative – preceded by indirect legislative elections)

Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, an indirect presidential election is planned for October 10, delayed from February 8, 2021. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.

An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays are exacerbating the country’s instability.

Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More

AFP (January 14, 2022): US threatens action if Somalia misses new election deadline

Mohamed Kahiye, Voice of America (January 10, 2022): Somali Leaders Urged to Implement New Elections Agreement

Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022

Angola holds presidential and legislative elections in August 2022. The country has not to date held free elections. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, has been in power since since independence in 1975. For 38 years, the MPLA’s José Eduardo Dos Santos ruled Angola with an iron fist. His regime engaged in rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Dos Santos’s successor, João Lourenço, has enacted some reforms and sought to curtail corruption, but many issues remain. Moreover, local elections (the country’s first) have been delayed repeatedly, at times sparking protests. The political climate remains tense.

MPLA’s vote share has been steadily decreasing with each successive election: it received 81 percent of the vote in 2008, 72 percent in 2012, and 61 percent in 2017. For the upcoming elections, the three main opposition parties will back a single presidential candidate: Adalberto Costa Junior, leader of UNITA, the main opposition party.

Angola is one of the biggest oil producers in Africa. More

Candido Mendes, Bloomberg (January 12, 2022): Angolan President Vows to Secure Elections as Unrest Mounts

Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)

Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022, but delays are possible due to the growing security crisis. These follow presidential and parliamentary elections on November 22, 2020. The political climate remains uncertain as the country’s democrats seek to consolidate the young, fragile democracy. More

Daniel Eizenga, The Conversation (January 18, 2022): Another coup has been averted in Burkina Faso: but for how long?

Henry Wilkins, Voice of America (January 13, 2022): Analysts: Burkina Faso Likely Averted Coup Linked to Military Infighting

Republic of the Congo Legislative and Local Elections: July 2022

The Republic of the Congo (sometimes called Congo-Brazzaville) will hold legislative and local elections in July 2022 or thereabouts. These follow last year’s presidential election. Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been president almost continuously since 1979 and rules with an iron fist, won re-election. Elections have not been free or fair. More

RFI (January 16, 2022 – in French): Congo-Brazzaville: concern of the opposition ahead of a modification of the Constitution

Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022

Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.

Because of the crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.

AFP (January 18, 2022): Kenya’s top court reviews disputed bid to change constitution

Chad Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)

Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels while fighting on the front lines. His son, 37-year-old General Mahamat Déby, declared himself interim leader, backed by the military. He dissolved parliament and promised elections within 18 months, by December 2022. However, it is unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote, and elections are riven by lengthy delays, violence, and fraud. More

Muhammed Magdy, Al-Monitor (January 12, 2022): Young Chadian leader sees partner, role model in Sisi: Mahamat ibn Idriss Deby Itno is seeking Cairo’s support to manage the country’s transition.

Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections on February 18, 2023, but some states are due to hold gubernatorial elections before that, including Ekiti and Osun states in 2022.

In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.

Chidi Odinkalu, The Cable Nigeria (January 16, 2022): Five factors will determine #NigeriaDecides2023

Alexander Onukwue, Quartz (January 13, 2022): Twitter must pay taxes in Nigeria after the government lifted its seven-month ban

Martina Schwikowski and Kate Hairsine, DW (January 13, 2022): Nigeria: Who is aspiring president Bola Tinubu? Ruling party chief and influential former Lagos governor Bola Tinubu has declared his ambitions to run for president in Nigeria’s 2023 elections.

Ruth Olurounbi and William Clowes, Bloomberg (January 10, 2022): Nigeria’s Ruling Party Leader Tinubu to Run for President

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Liberia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in October 2023. The country’s 2017 election brought the first peaceful transition of power since 1944, but Liberia still faces some challenges as it seeks to consolidate democracy. More

Dounard Bondo, The Africa Report (January 10, 2022): Liberia: Breakup in main opposition coalition alliance helps Weah ahead of 2023 vote

Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)

The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.

When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.

The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.

Stanis Bujakera and Hereward Holland, Reuters (January 14, 2022): Vice president of Congo’s parliament resigns over ‘bullying, humiliation’

Vava Tampa, The Guardian (January 10, 2022): As violence in the Congo escalates, thousands are in effect being held hostage

Sudan General Elections: By 2024 (due – unclear following coup)

Sudan plans to hold general elections by 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. Civil servant and diplomat Abdalla Hamdok became prime minister.

However, another coup in October 2021 returned Sudan to military rule. Hamdok resigned. Protests continue and the country’s political future remains uncertain.

Nosmot Gbadamosi, Foreign Policy (January 12, 2022): Sudan’s Future Hangs in the Balance: Demonstrators find themselves at odds with key U.N. and U.S. mediators.

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed to December 2025

Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup, but the interim government has proposed a delay to December 2025, sparking a backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.

In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (who has since died at age 76, having been in poor health for years), dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.

On May 25, 2021, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid. Most recently, the government has proposed delaying the elections to December 2025, sparking the threat of sanctions from the regional bloc ECOWAS. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has called the interim government illegitimate, and the international community has condemned its failure to make progress against the jihadist threat that plages the Sahel.

France24 (January 16, 2022): Hollande hails Mali’s late president Keïta as a proud African and ‘man of culture’

Harrison Smith, Washington Post (January 16, 2022): Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Malian president deposed in coup, dies at 76

Baba Ahmed, AP (January 14, 2022): Crowds protest sanctions, pressure, after Mali vote delay

AFP (January 13, 2022): Who supports Mali’s junta?

Edith M. Lederer, AP (January 12, 2022): Russia and China block UN support for sanctions on Mali

Africanews with AFP (January 11, 2022): Guinea keeps borders open with Mali hit by ECOWAS sanctions

John Irish, Reuters (January 11, 2022): French official says 300-400 Russian mercenaries operate in Mali

Christopher Michael Faulkner, The Conversation (January 10, 2022): Rising instability in Mali raises fears about role of private Russian military group

Neil Munshi, Financial Times (January 10, 2022): Mali’s neighbours impose sanctions over election delay

Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup

On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.

Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More

Boubacar Diallo and Krista Larson, AP (January 17, 2022): Ex-Guinean President Conde flown abroad for medical care

UN News (January 10, 2022): UN top envoy: Resurgence of coups d’état, consequence of being ‘completely out of step’  

Architecture in Senegal

Oliver Wainwright, The Guardian (January 13, 2022): Tented love: how Senegal created a spectacular new African architecture

Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Ongoing

Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022

Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: February 8, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup – delays possible)

Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 2022 (due)

Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays possible)

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022

Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)

Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)

Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022

Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022

Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022

Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (due – delays possible)

Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)

Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022

Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)

South Sudan General Elections: December 2022 (tentative)

Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023

Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)

Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023

Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)

Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)

Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)

Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)

Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)

Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)

Togo Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)

Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Americas This Week: January 15, 2022

Americas this week January 15 2022

January 15, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

Calderas Church in Barinas, Venezuela. The opposition won a surprise victory in the Barinas gubernatorial election. Barinas state is the birthplace of former leader Hugo Chavez. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Diosesan (CC BY 3.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022

Barbados will hold snap parliamentary elections on January 19, following a decision made in September 2021 to remove the British monarch as head of state and become a republic. The elections come one year early.

In the last elections, in 2018, the center-left Barbados Labor Party (BLP, knicknamed the “Bees”) won all 30 seats (and currently hold 29). Before that, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP, “Dems”) held power for 10 years. The DLP is seen as being to the left of the BLP, having been founded by a group that broke away in 1955 (the BLP was founded in 1938). However, politics in Barbados tends to be driven by personalities.

Robert Goddard, London School of Economics (January 13, 2022): Why does Barbados symbolic transition to a republic matter

Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022

Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there will be 27 presidential candidates from various parties.

AFP (January 14, 2022): Costa Rica Presidential debate ends without a winner, analysts say

Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022

Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by protests beginning in April 2021. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests grew violent, leading to dozens of deaths.

Mariana Palau, Americas Quarterly (January 10, 2022): Is Gustavo Petro Leaving Behind Colombian Progressives? The left-wing candidate for Colombia’s presidency is building new alliances, and straining old ones.

Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022

Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. 

As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More

Reuters (January 14, 2022): Brazil polls show Lula gaining over Bolsonaro, third candidate ’embryonic’

DW (January 12, 2022): Brazil: Bolsonaro attacks Supreme Court ahead of election

Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed

Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.

Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).

Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).

Evens Sanon, AP (January 10, 2022): Haiti’s Senate reconvenes after 1 year amid instability

Reuters (January 10, 2022): Haiti’s outgoing senate chief to continue holding sessions as term expires

Past Americas Elections

Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021

Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.

On January 9, opposition candidate Sergio Garrido won a surprise victory in Barinas state, the birthplace of none other than Hugo Chavez. The vote took place because the original opposition candidate was disqualified retroactively.

Albinson Linares, Noticias Telemundo, NBC News January 12, 2022): ‘It pays to vote’: Behind the Venezuelan opposition’s victory in Chavismo’s cradle: For the first time in over 20 years, the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez’s home state will be ruled by the opposition. Experts explain the why behind the votes.

Deisy Buitrago and Mayela Armas, Reuters (January 11, 2022): Analysis: Venezuela opposition gains hope from win in ruling party stronghold

Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021

Argentina held midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. The ruling Peronists took a major hit, losing control of the legislature for the first time in decades.

Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – happened in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.

Argentina is due to hold presidential and another round of legislative elections in fall 2023.

Diana Roy, Council on Foreign Relations (January 13, 2022): Argentina: A South American Power Struggles for Stability

Lucinda Elliott, Financial Times (January 11, 2022): Argentina heads towards latest IMF deadline with little sign of progress: Peronist government caught between Washington lender and its own fractious congress as economy sputters

Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021

Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.

Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).

Following the election, Nicaragua switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

Global Americans (January 14, 2022): Daniel Ortega Begins His Fourth Consecutive Term

Wilfredo Miranda, El País (January 14, 2022): El Chipote, the dungeon for Nicaragua’s political prisoners

Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (January 12, 2022) Argentina, Mexico deserve slams for attending Ortega’s inauguration — alongside Iranian terror suspect

AFP (January 11, 2022): EU, US widen Nicaragua sanctions as Ortega begins new term

AP (January 9, 2022): Nicaragua congress takes office after questionable elections


Reuters (January 8, 2022): Record number of Nicaraguans sought asylum in Costa Rica in 2021

El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021

El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More

Mary Anastasia O’Grady, Wall Street Journal (January 9, 2022): China’s New Friends in Central America: Salvadoran President Bukele is courting Beijing and playing footsie with thugs.

Regional Analysis

Clarisa Demattei, Buenos Aires Times (January 14, 2022): Will 2022 be a year of consolidation for Latin America’s left?

Human Rights Watch (January 13, 2022): Latin America: Alarming Reversal of Basic Freedoms

Will Freeman and Paul J. Angelo, Washington Post (January 12, 2022): Millennial politicians are shaking up Latin America. Here’s how they differ from the old guard.

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022

Bahamas, Local Elections in Grand Bahama: January 27, 2022

Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022

Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022

St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022

Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022

Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022

Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022

Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022

Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022

Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022

Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022

Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)

Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022

Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)

Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)

Paraguay Presidenital and Legislative Elections: April 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)

Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set

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