February 4, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Palace of Assembly in Chandigarh, meeting place of Punjab state legislature. The building was designed by the famous architect Le Corbusier. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Chiara (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024. In the last national elections, in 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won a “thumping victory, securing a second term in office in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – has done well some subsequent state elections.
First up for this round of state polls: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 10 to March 7. The BJP currently dominates the state legislature, and the Chief Minister is controversial Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath.
Punjab will also vote on February 20. The state government is currently led by Congress Party.
Gujarat (Modi’s home state) is due to vote later this year, and a handful of other states go to the polls in 2023.
Zeba Siddiqui and Saurabh Sharma, Reuters (February 4, 2022): Activist takes on Hindu heavyweights in India’s biggest state poll
Anuttama Banerji, The Diplomat (February 1, 2022): Why Uttar Pradesh’s Meerut Is a Magnet for India’s Politicians: The town, which played an important role in India’s history, is the site of fiercely fought communal politics.
Nirmala Ganapathy, Straits Times (January 31, 2022): India’s budget to focus on growth amid key state elections and third Covid-19 wave: Economists
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition People Power Party won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Four candidates will contest the March presidential election. The frontrunners are retired civil rights lawyer and former Gyeonggi Province (the most populous province that includes Seoul) governor Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party and former prosecutor general Yoon Suk-yeol from the People Power Party. Yoon is leading pre-election polls. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jeung, both from small parties, are also running. The campaign has generally been nasty and neither major candidate is particularly popular with voters or with his respective party – both won their primaries narrowly.
South Korea is a key United States ally, and the South Korean public broadly supports the alliance. However, Moon has pursued diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea and moved closer to China.
Chang May Choon, Straits Times (February 5, 2022): Main opposition candidate in South Korea’s presidential election leads opinion polls
Reuters (February 4, 2022): Ahead of Election, South Korea’s Long-Frenzied Housing Market Shows Signs of Cooling
Ko Jun-tae, Korea Herald (February 4, 2022): Fact check: 1st TV debate for 20th presidential election
Hyonhee Shin, Reuters (February 3, 2022): S.Korean voters hold noses as rivals land low blows in ‘unlikeable’ election
Hong Kong Chief Executive Election: March 27, 2022 (indirect)
Hong Kong held elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
On March 27, 2022, an Election Committee consisting of 1463 people – primarily pro-Beijing politicians and business figures – will choose the Chief Executive. Incumbent Carrie Lam is eligible to run for a second term, but it is unclear whether she will, and the process has been characterized by a lack of transparency and a heavy hand from Beijing. More
Brian Wong, South China Morning post (February 4, 2022): Ex-Hong Kong opposition lawmaker jailed for 3 weeks for contempt after protesting against rival in Legislative Council meeting
Chris Lau, South China Morning Post (February 3, 2022): Here’s what we know so far about this year’s Hong Kong leadership race
Stuart Lau, Politico (February 1, 2022): From Lantau to Ealing: Hong Kong’s homesick exiles in Britain greet the Year of the Tiger: Many want to preserve Hong Kong’s culture of protest against Beijing’s anti-democratic crackdown.
Liz Wolfe, Reason (January 28, 2022): Hong Kong’s Politicians and Cops Use Pandemic Justifications To Do Beijing’s Bidding
Malaysia, Early Elections in Johor: By March 2022, and Early General Elections: Expected
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, subsequently held state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency, and Sabah, the other Borneo state, also held polls.
Next up: Johor, which borders Singapore, will hold elections by March 2022 after the state’s chief minister dissolved the state legislature (elections were originally due in 2023).
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
Straits Times (February 5, 2022): Johor polls see spat between former PMs Muhyiddin and Najib
Vincent Tan, Channel News Asia (January 30, 2022): In Malaysia, new political parties signal their strengths and what they can bring to the table
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who is not actually politically aligned with Duterte (in the Philippines, the president and vice president are elected separately, and Robredo ran in the last election on the Liberal Party ticket in opposition to Duterte).
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Stratfor (February 3, 2022): Philippines: New Law Requiring Real ID for Social Media Could Impact Elections
Pauline Macaraeg, Rappler (February 2, 2022): Study finds signs of ‘networked political manipulation’ on social media
Jim Gomez, AP (February 2, 2022): Official who voted to bar Marcos Jr. election bid retires
Karen Lima, Reuters (January 31, 2022): Manila mayor vows to take on China as Philippines president
Richard Javad Heydarian, Asian Financial Review (January 31, 2022): Duterte successor candidates adjust their China policies
Editorial Board, Australian National University (January 31, 2022): Philippine elections expose the politics of China policy
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More
Tyrone Clarke, Sky News (February 3, 2022): Scott Morrison warns an Albanese Labor government could ‘appease’ China, says national security ‘at stake’ at election
Chris Uhlmann, Sydney Morning Herald (February 2, 2022): Election not over yet, but Morrison may need another miracle
Reuters (January 30, 2022): Australia PM’s ratings tumble to lowest levels in nearly two years, poll shows
Nepal Local Elections: May 18, 2022 (proposed), followed by General Elections
Several sets of elections could take place in Nepal within the next year.
Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Tika R Pradhan, Kathmandu Post (February 5, 2022): Holding local level elections on May 18 may not end legal complications: Representatives elected in the second and third phases of the local level polls conducted in 2017 can move court asserting their right to serve for full five years.
Binod Ghimire, Kathmandu Post (February 4, 2022): Country prepares for local polls but college elections are still uncertain: Supposedly biennial elections haven’t been held since 2017.
Saloni Murarka, WION (February 2, 2022): Nepal likely to hold local elections on May 18 in single phase
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25 – July 8, 2022
Papua New Guinea holds parliamentary and local elections June 25 – July 8, 2022.
Radio New Zealand (January 29, 2022): PNG facing a myriad of election challenges
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake) and Okinawa Gubernatorial Election: September 2022 (due)
Japan holds elections for half of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on July 25, 2022. These follow general elections that took placeon October 31, a bit earlier than the November deadline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, won another term in office, despite somewhat decreased approval ratings in recent months.
The general elections followed the LDP’s September 29 leadership contest. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga did not seek re-election. Foreign minister Fumio Kishida defeated vaccine czar Kono Taro in a runoff, as well as the hawkish former internal affairs minister Takaichi Sanae and former gender equality minister Noda Seiko.
In addition, Japanese cities and prefectures hold gubernatorial and mayoral elections at various times throughout the year.
This year, a series of elections will take place in Okinawa prefecture, culminating in the gubernatorial vote. Okinawa carries massive geopolitical importance and currently hosts around 26,000 United States military personnel. Political debate is revolving around the relocation of United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma. Both the United States and the Japanese governments want to relocate the base, but opposition in Okinawa has delayed the plan.
Kyodo News Agency (February 4, 2022): Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki to seek second term in September poll
Jack McKenzie, Jurist (February 2, 2022): Japan court upholds election results despite finding unconstitutionality
Stratfor (February 1, 2022): Japan: Parliament Adopts Resolution on Human Rights in China
Kyodo News Agency (February 1, 2022): Court questions October election outcome over vote weight disparity
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
Taiwan, a robust democracy, has scheduled “nine-in-one” local elections for November 26, 2022. Voters will elect nine categories of local officials.
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948.
The next presidential and legislative elections are due in 2024. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Tsukasa Hadano, Nikkei Asia (January 31, 2022): China eyes ‘armed unification’ with Taiwan by 2027: key academic
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
Victoria Milko, AP (February 4, 2022): Death, danger, despair: A year in Burma under the military
Maroosha Muzaffar, The Independent (February 1, 2022): Myanmar marks coup anniversary with trial date for Aung San Suu Kyi and new charges
Rodion Ebbighausen, DW (February 1, 2022): Myanmar women take the lead in resisting the military
Tyler Giannini, Justin Cole and Emily Ray, Just Security (February 1, 2022): From ‘8888’ to ‘2121’: A New Generation of Resistance in Myanmar
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Nepal Provincial Elections: April or May 2022 (due)
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
Japan, Gubernatorial Election in Okinawa: September 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: February 5, 2022
Last Updated: February 17, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 5, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there will be 25 presidential candidates from various parties.
Lucas Perelló and Will Freeman, Foreign Policy (February 4, 2022): Costa Rica’s Boring Elections Are a Model for the World: No matter who wins, Sunday’s vote won’t make headlines abroad. That’s a good thing.
Javier Córdoba, AP (February 3, 2022): With 25 candidates, Costa Rica’s election up for grabs
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the current frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. Ingrid Betancourt, a former FARC hostage who was kidnapped while running for president in 2002, is also running, on a platform of national reconciliation. She had originally planned to run in the center coalition’s primary, but since withdrew from the coalition and announced that she would be an independent candidate.
The country has been rocked by protests beginning in April 2021. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests grew violent, leading to dozens of deaths.
Santiago Torrado, El País (February 2, 2022 – in Spanish): Gustavo Petro gives international luster to his campaign for the presidency of Colombia: The left-wing candidate visits Pope Francis at the Vatican, meets with the French economist Thomas Piketty and is invited to the inauguration of Gabriel Boric in Chile
Stratfor (January 31, 2022): Colombia: Attack Highlights Increased Political Violence During Election Year
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
George Xenophontos, Jurist (February 3, 2022): Brazil federal police finds Bolsonaro breached secrecy laws but shielded by immunity
Vincius Andrade, Bloomberg (February 2, 2022): Top Brazil Hedge Funds See Traders Embracing Lula’s Comeback
Anthony Boadle, Reuters (February 2, 2022): Brazil’s presidential race tightens, new poll shows
Reuters (February 1, 2022): U.S. Leans on Brazil’s Bolsonaro to Scrap Russia Trip, Source Says
Michael Pooler and Carolina Ingizza, Financial Times (January 30, 2022): Lula leaves clues about plans for Brazil’s economy if re-elected
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Argentina is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in October or November 2023.
Argentina held midterm legislative elections in November 2021, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. The ruling Peronists took a major hit, losing control of the legislature for the first time in decades.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – happened in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Jordana Timerman, Americas Quarterly (February 4, 2022): Máximo Kirchner’s Big Gamble: The Argentine politician’s dissent from the government over an IMF deal deepens divisions within the ruling coalition
Haiti
Gessika Thomas and Brian Ellsworth, Reuters (February 4, 2022): Leader of Haitian advocacy group urges two-year transition government
Monique Clesca, Foreign Affairs (February 1, 2022): Haiti’s Fight for Democracy: Why the Country Must Rebuild Before It Votes
Past Americas Elections
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras held presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidential race.
These elections took place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Some feared post-election turmoil this year, but Nasry Asfura, the National Party’s candidate, conceded.
On the geopolitical front, Honduras is one of the few countries that maintains formal diplomatic relations Taiwan, but Beijing has been pressuring politicians to change that. LIBRE had said that it would switch its recognition to Beijing, but has not done so yet and could potentially change its mind. More
Robert Carlson, Global Americans (February 3, 2022): Xiomara Castro: An Unlikely U.S. Partner
Noah Bierman, Los Angeles Times (February 2, 2022): Essential Politics: Is Kamala Harris taking a gamble in Honduras?
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
On January 9, opposition candidate Sergio Garrido won a surprise victory in Barinas state, the birthplace of none other than Hugo Chavez. The vote took place because the original opposition candidate was disqualified retroactively.
InSight Crime (February 3, 2022): Are Arrests of Venezuela Officials Simply For Show?
Deisy Buitrago and Mayela Armas, Reuters (January 29, 2022): Venezuela detains ruling party mayor over drug trafficking
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
AP (February 4, 2022): Nicaraguan judge convicts ex-presidential hopeful Mora: A judge in Nicaragua has convicted former presidential hopeful Miguel Mora of “conspiracy to undermine national integrity” after a trial lasting a few hours
Reuters (February 3, 2022): Nicaragua Is on Road to Expulsion From OAS, US Official Says
AFP (January 31, 2022): Trials to resume for Nicaragua government opponents: prosecution
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022
Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)
Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022
Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)
Jamaica Local Elections: By February 2023
Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)
Ecuador Regional Elections: March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: February 4, 2022
Last Updated: February 17, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 4, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024. In the last national elections, in 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won a “thumping victory, securing a second term in office in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – has done well some subsequent state elections.
First up for this round of state polls: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 10 to March 7. The BJP currently dominates the state legislature, and the Chief Minister is controversial Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath.
Punjab will also vote on February 20. The state government is currently led by Congress Party.
Gujarat (Modi’s home state) is due to vote later this year, and a handful of other states go to the polls in 2023.
Zeba Siddiqui and Saurabh Sharma, Reuters (February 4, 2022): Activist takes on Hindu heavyweights in India’s biggest state poll
Anuttama Banerji, The Diplomat (February 1, 2022): Why Uttar Pradesh’s Meerut Is a Magnet for India’s Politicians: The town, which played an important role in India’s history, is the site of fiercely fought communal politics.
Nirmala Ganapathy, Straits Times (January 31, 2022): India’s budget to focus on growth amid key state elections and third Covid-19 wave: Economists
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition People Power Party won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Four candidates will contest the March presidential election. The frontrunners are retired civil rights lawyer and former Gyeonggi Province (the most populous province that includes Seoul) governor Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party and former prosecutor general Yoon Suk-yeol from the People Power Party. Yoon is leading pre-election polls. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jeung, both from small parties, are also running. The campaign has generally been nasty and neither major candidate is particularly popular with voters or with his respective party – both won their primaries narrowly.
South Korea is a key United States ally, and the South Korean public broadly supports the alliance. However, Moon has pursued diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea and moved closer to China.
Chang May Choon, Straits Times (February 5, 2022): Main opposition candidate in South Korea’s presidential election leads opinion polls
Reuters (February 4, 2022): Ahead of Election, South Korea’s Long-Frenzied Housing Market Shows Signs of Cooling
Ko Jun-tae, Korea Herald (February 4, 2022): Fact check: 1st TV debate for 20th presidential election
Hyonhee Shin, Reuters (February 3, 2022): S.Korean voters hold noses as rivals land low blows in ‘unlikeable’ election
Hong Kong Chief Executive Election: March 27, 2022 (indirect)
Hong Kong held elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
On March 27, 2022, an Election Committee consisting of 1463 people – primarily pro-Beijing politicians and business figures – will choose the Chief Executive. Incumbent Carrie Lam is eligible to run for a second term, but it is unclear whether she will, and the process has been characterized by a lack of transparency and a heavy hand from Beijing. More
Brian Wong, South China Morning post (February 4, 2022): Ex-Hong Kong opposition lawmaker jailed for 3 weeks for contempt after protesting against rival in Legislative Council meeting
Chris Lau, South China Morning Post (February 3, 2022): Here’s what we know so far about this year’s Hong Kong leadership race
Stuart Lau, Politico (February 1, 2022): From Lantau to Ealing: Hong Kong’s homesick exiles in Britain greet the Year of the Tiger: Many want to preserve Hong Kong’s culture of protest against Beijing’s anti-democratic crackdown.
Liz Wolfe, Reason (January 28, 2022): Hong Kong’s Politicians and Cops Use Pandemic Justifications To Do Beijing’s Bidding
Malaysia, Early Elections in Johor: By March 2022, and Early General Elections: Expected
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, subsequently held state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency, and Sabah, the other Borneo state, also held polls.
Next up: Johor, which borders Singapore, will hold elections by March 2022 after the state’s chief minister dissolved the state legislature (elections were originally due in 2023).
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
Straits Times (February 5, 2022): Johor polls see spat between former PMs Muhyiddin and Najib
Vincent Tan, Channel News Asia (January 30, 2022): In Malaysia, new political parties signal their strengths and what they can bring to the table
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who is not actually politically aligned with Duterte (in the Philippines, the president and vice president are elected separately, and Robredo ran in the last election on the Liberal Party ticket in opposition to Duterte).
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Stratfor (February 3, 2022): Philippines: New Law Requiring Real ID for Social Media Could Impact Elections
Pauline Macaraeg, Rappler (February 2, 2022): Study finds signs of ‘networked political manipulation’ on social media
Jim Gomez, AP (February 2, 2022): Official who voted to bar Marcos Jr. election bid retires
Karen Lima, Reuters (January 31, 2022): Manila mayor vows to take on China as Philippines president
Richard Javad Heydarian, Asian Financial Review (January 31, 2022): Duterte successor candidates adjust their China policies
Editorial Board, Australian National University (January 31, 2022): Philippine elections expose the politics of China policy
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More
Tyrone Clarke, Sky News (February 3, 2022): Scott Morrison warns an Albanese Labor government could ‘appease’ China, says national security ‘at stake’ at election
Chris Uhlmann, Sydney Morning Herald (February 2, 2022): Election not over yet, but Morrison may need another miracle
Reuters (January 30, 2022): Australia PM’s ratings tumble to lowest levels in nearly two years, poll shows
Nepal Local Elections: May 18, 2022 (proposed), followed by General Elections
Several sets of elections could take place in Nepal within the next year.
Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
Tika R Pradhan, Kathmandu Post (February 5, 2022): Holding local level elections on May 18 may not end legal complications: Representatives elected in the second and third phases of the local level polls conducted in 2017 can move court asserting their right to serve for full five years.
Binod Ghimire, Kathmandu Post (February 4, 2022): Country prepares for local polls but college elections are still uncertain: Supposedly biennial elections haven’t been held since 2017.
Saloni Murarka, WION (February 2, 2022): Nepal likely to hold local elections on May 18 in single phase
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25 – July 8, 2022
Papua New Guinea holds parliamentary and local elections June 25 – July 8, 2022.
Radio New Zealand (January 29, 2022): PNG facing a myriad of election challenges
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake) and Okinawa Gubernatorial Election: September 2022 (due)
Japan holds elections for half of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on July 25, 2022. These follow general elections that took placeon October 31, a bit earlier than the November deadline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, won another term in office, despite somewhat decreased approval ratings in recent months.
The general elections followed the LDP’s September 29 leadership contest. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga did not seek re-election. Foreign minister Fumio Kishida defeated vaccine czar Kono Taro in a runoff, as well as the hawkish former internal affairs minister Takaichi Sanae and former gender equality minister Noda Seiko.
In addition, Japanese cities and prefectures hold gubernatorial and mayoral elections at various times throughout the year.
This year, a series of elections will take place in Okinawa prefecture, culminating in the gubernatorial vote. Okinawa carries massive geopolitical importance and currently hosts around 26,000 United States military personnel. Political debate is revolving around the relocation of United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma. Both the United States and the Japanese governments want to relocate the base, but opposition in Okinawa has delayed the plan.
Kyodo News Agency (February 4, 2022): Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki to seek second term in September poll
Jack McKenzie, Jurist (February 2, 2022): Japan court upholds election results despite finding unconstitutionality
Stratfor (February 1, 2022): Japan: Parliament Adopts Resolution on Human Rights in China
Kyodo News Agency (February 1, 2022): Court questions October election outcome over vote weight disparity
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
Taiwan, a robust democracy, has scheduled “nine-in-one” local elections for November 26, 2022. Voters will elect nine categories of local officials.
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948.
The next presidential and legislative elections are due in 2024. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Tsukasa Hadano, Nikkei Asia (January 31, 2022): China eyes ‘armed unification’ with Taiwan by 2027: key academic
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
Victoria Milko, AP (February 4, 2022): Death, danger, despair: A year in Burma under the military
Maroosha Muzaffar, The Independent (February 1, 2022): Myanmar marks coup anniversary with trial date for Aung San Suu Kyi and new charges
Rodion Ebbighausen, DW (February 1, 2022): Myanmar women take the lead in resisting the military
Tyler Giannini, Justin Cole and Emily Ray, Just Security (February 1, 2022): From ‘8888’ to ‘2121’: A New Generation of Resistance in Myanmar
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Nepal Provincial Elections: April or May 2022 (due)
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
Japan, Gubernatorial Election in Okinawa: September 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Election Outlook: February 2022
Last Updated: March 25, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there will be 25 presidential candidates from various parties.
Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Castile and León: February 13, 2022
Spain’s Castile and León region will hold early elections to the regional legislature on February 13, 2022. The current government is a coalition of the conservative Popular Party and the liberal Citizens Party. The legislature traces its origins to the Cortes of León of 1188, which UNESCO has called the oldest example of a parliamentary system in Europe.
After that, the country holds local and general elections in 2023.
India, Punjab State Elections: February 20, 2022 and Uttar Pradesh State Elections: February 20 - March 7, 2022
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024.
First up: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 20 to March 7. Punjab will also vote on February 20.
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has called a constitutional referendum for February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The proposed changes would allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035. Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.
The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue.
In addition, Russia has been moving troops to Belarus in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine or other neighboring countries.
Austria, Local Elections in Tyrol: February 27, 2022
Austria’s state of Tyrol holds local elections on February 27.
On the federal front, Austria is due to hold a presidential election in Fall 2022, although in Austria’s parliamentary system, the role is largely ceremonial. Recently, the double resignation of center-right chancellor Sebastian Kurz and subsequently his successor, Alexander Schallenberg, has shaken politics. General elections to select the next government are not due until 2024, but snap elections remain possible. Various states also hold state and local elections in 2022 and 2023.
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Costa Rica holds general elections on February 6, 2022. Rated Free by Freedom House, Costa Rica has been a stable democracy since 1949. Incumbent presidents are not allowed to run for a second consecutive term, so President Carlos Alvarado from the center-left Citizen Action (PAC) cannot run for another term. PAC has nominated former prime minister Welmer Ramos as its presidential candidate. In total, there will be 25 presidential candidates from various parties.
Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Castile and León: February 13, 2022
Spain’s Castile and León region will hold early elections to the regional legislature on February 13, 2022. The current government is a coalition of the conservative Popular Party and the liberal Citizens Party. The legislature traces its origins to the Cortes of León of 1188, which UNESCO has called the oldest example of a parliamentary system in Europe.
After that, the country holds local and general elections in 2023.
India, Punjab State Elections: February 20, 2022 and Uttar Pradesh State Elections: February 20 – March 7, 2022
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024.
First up: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 20 to March 7. Punjab will also vote on February 20.
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has called a constitutional referendum for February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The proposed changes would allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035. Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.
The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue.
In addition, Russia has been moving troops to Belarus in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine or other neighboring countries.
Austria, Local Elections in Tyrol: February 27, 2022
Austria’s state of Tyrol holds local elections on February 27.
On the federal front, Austria is due to hold a presidential election in Fall 2022, although in Austria’s parliamentary system, the role is largely ceremonial. Recently, the double resignation of center-right chancellor Sebastian Kurz and subsequently his successor, Alexander Schallenberg, has shaken politics. General elections to select the next government are not due until 2024, but snap elections remain possible. Various states also hold state and local elections in 2022 and 2023.
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: February 3, 2022
Last Updated: February 28, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 3, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has called a constitutional referendum for February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The proposed changes would allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035. Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.
The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue.
In addition, Russia has been moving troops to Belarus in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine or other neighboring countries. More
Aliaksandr Kudrytski, Bloomberg (February 2, 2022): Belarus Bars Voting From Abroad in Constitutional Referendum
Igor Tsikhanenka, Voice of America (February 2, 2022 – video): Belarus Activists Flee to the US, Say Europe Not Safe
RFE/RL (January 31, 2022): Two More Belarusians Sentenced For ‘Insulting’ Lukashenka
Belsat (January 28, 2022): USA: Sanctions will remain in place until Belarus authorities cease relentless repression, release all political prisoners
Armenia Presidential Election (indirect): March 2022 (proposed)
Armenia’s prime minister has announced that parliament will elect a new president in March, following the resignation of the current president, Armen Sarkissian.
Armenia held snap parliamentary elections on June 20, 2021 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Pre-election polls suggested a close contest Pashinyan acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and former president Robert Kocharyan; however, Pashinyan ended up winning by a significant margin. Political tensions remain.
Reuters (February 3, 2022): Armenian parliament to elect president in March – report
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 2023 and Presidential Election: By March 2024
Ukraine is due to hold parliamentary elections in 2023 and a presidential election in 2024. In the last presidential vote, in 2019, Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko running on an anti-establishment platform. However, since then, the country’s traditional pro-Europe and pro-Moscow political forces have regained ground.
Russia’s military aggression, which began in 2014, continues, and the threat of further invasion looms large.
Olga Tokariuk, Washington Post (February 1, 2022): My generation of Ukrainians has fought hard for democracy. We stand ready once again.
Mary Louise Kelly, Jonaki Mehta, Courtney Dorning, NPR (January 27, 2022): Ukrainian politician discusses Ukraine’s relationship with the world
Past Eurasia Elections
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Myrzaiym Janybek kyzy, Institute for War and Peace Reporting (February 2, 2022): Kyrgyz Authorities Arrest Investigative Journalist: Case highlights growing pressures on free expression in Central Asian state.
Georgia Local Elections: October 2 and 30, 2021
Georgia held local elections on October 2 and 30, 2021 in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of former president Mikheil Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote. Runoffs took place on October 30, including for the important role of mayor of Tbilisi, which the ruling Georgian Dream party failed to win in the first round. Ultimately, Georgian Dream did win the second round amid criticism from the opposition.
A recent uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically.
The next parliamentary elections are due in October 2024, but snap elections could happen. More
Peter Wiebler, Civil.ge (February 2, 2022): Local Governance Reform Can Strengthen Georgian Democracy from the Ground Up
Vazha Tavberidze, RFE/RL (January 28, 2022): NATO’s Door Open To Georgia But Political Reforms Needed, Envoy Says
Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021
Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature.
A series of protests in January 2022 rocked the country and left as many as 225 people dead, as well as a reported 12,000 people in detention. Russia briefly sent personnel under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), its military alliance of several post-Soviet states. More
RFE/RL (February 3, 2022): Kazakhstan Says Looking Into Dozens Of Alleged Abuses Following Deadly Protests
Roza Nurgozhayeva, Jurist (February 2, 2022): There Will be No ‘New’ Kazakhstan Without Deep Legal, Constitutional Reforms — Law Professor Explains Recent Mass Protests
Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet (January 28, 2022): Kazakhstan: Tokayev takes reins of ruling party: Former president Nazarbayev’s loss of influence is now all but complete.
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Armenia Presidential Election (indirect): March 2022 (proposed)
Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 2022 (due)
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: February 2, 2022
Last Updated: February 15, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 2, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Germany Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022, followed by Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022, and Lower Saxony State Elections: October 8, 2022
Germany holds several sets of state elections in 2022, following the “Superwahljahr” (Super Election Year) of 2021, which saw the defeat of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a new “traffic light coalition” government consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.
Holger Hansen, Reuters (January 30, 2022): German Greens elect 28-year-old leader to build on youth vote
Guy Chazan, Financial Times (January 28, 2022): Leader of Germany’s AfD quits over party’s drift to radical right
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Hungary is holding parliamentary elections on April 3, 2022. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.
A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.
Anita Komuves, Reuters (January 23, 2022): Hungary’s opposition fights Orban’s media strength one letterbox at a time
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg (January 31, 2022): Hungarian Teachers Strike in Pre-Election Headache for Orban
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia holds early presidential and legislative elections on April 3, following a constitutional referendum on January 16 in which voters approved constitutional changes related to the judiciary – a move some hope will bring Serbia closer to EU membership. The last elections, snap parliamentary elections in June 2020, took place in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Jovana Gec, AP (February 2, 2022): Serbian opposition parties unite against Vucic’s populists
European Western Balkans (January 31, 2022): Final visit of the EP facilitators to Serbia before elections: Some progress, delays in implementation of measures
Svetla Miteva, Euractiv (January 28, 2022): Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic accused of ‘bribing voters’
Reuters (January 27, 2022): Serbia’s green activists rally to demand moratorium on lithium mining
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
While many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.
As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Republicans have selected Valérie Pécresse, president of the regional council of Île-de-France. The Socialists chose Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo as their candidate. Pécresse has polled in second and could very realistically beat both of the far-right candidates and make it to the runoff.
Françoise Boucek, LSE’s EUROPP blog (February 2, 2022): Why it’s still all to play for in the French presidential election
AFP (February 1, 2022): Macron said to be waiting for crises to ease before declaring candidacy
Euronews with AP (January 30, 2022): Left-wing candidates dismiss united front ahead of French presidential elections
AFP (January 30, 2022): Former justice minister Christiane Taubira wins the ‘people’s primary’ held by the French left
Martin Arnold and Valentina Romel, Financial Times (January 28, 2022): French economy boosts Macron with fastest growth in 52 years
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. However, BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights.
BiH consists of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mostly by Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats, and the Republika Srpska, with mostly Orthodox Serbs. Recently, tensions have flared as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has used increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and taken actions that some analysts see as moving toward secession. According to Reuters, “The Balkan country is going through its worst political crisis since the end of a war in the 1990s after Bosnian Serbs blocked decision-making in national institutions and launched a process to withdraw from the state armed forces, tax system and judiciary.”
Both Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats have threatened to boycott the upcoming elections.
Zeljko Trkanjec, Euractiv (January 31, 2022): Elections in BiH must go on, regardless of reform
International Crisis Group (January 27, 2022): Bosnia and Herzegovina: Deterring Disintegration
Reuters (January 26, 2022): Bosnia risks entering legal and institutional vacuum -corruption watchdog
Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: By August 2024
Montenegro is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2024, but snap polls are possible. The last elections, the fifth since independence in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro became the next prime minister. The political base of the Krivokapic’s coalition is generally pro-Moscow.
The government currently faces a no-confidence motion, which could lead to early elections in May if the motion succeeds.
Aleksander Brezar, Euronews (February 2, 2022): Montenegro lurches back into political crisis as former allies try to oust PM
Orlando Crowcroft and AP, Euronews (January 2, 2022): Montenegro’s prime minister warns of government collapse ahead of vote
Samir Kajosevic, Balkan Insight (January 31, 2022): Move to Minority Government in Montenegro May Only Buy Time
Past Europe Elections
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal held snap elections on January 30, two years early, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote. The incumbent Socialist Party won, surprising observers with an outright majority, an upgrade from its previous minority government.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist s, regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
AFP (January 30, 2022): Portugal’s ruling Socialists win re-election with outright majority
Barry Hatton, AP (January 28, 2022): Old grievances haunt Portugal’s vote: low pay, stagnation
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Began January 24, 2022
Italy’s parliament began the process of choosing a president on January 24, and after six days and eight rounds of voting, lawmakers re-elected incumbent Sergio Mattarella. Although Italy’s president does not have much formal executive power, Mattarella has become increasingly powerful as a mediator in Italy’s recent series of political crises. Although he did not seek another term, he agreed to continue serving in order to preserve political stability.
Current prime minister Mario Draghi had indicated interest in the role, which threatened to trigger snap elections if the current broad coalition of right and left-wing parties does not hold together. Italy is currently not due for parliamentary elections until 2023. Some fear another bout of instability if Draghi leaves his current role – Draghi’s accession to the role of prime minister ended the last round of political chaos.
In addition, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi had been campaigning from the role, but withdrew before voting started.
General elections are due by June 2023.
Gavin Jones, Angelo Amante and Giuseppe Fonte, Reuters (February 2, 2022): “Anyone but Draghi” – how an Italian presidential bid fell flat
Angela Guiffrida, The Guardian (February 1, 2022): Italian League’s Matteo Salvini calls for new alliance based on US Republicans
Holly Ellyatt, CNBC (January 31, 2022): Italy’s 80 year-old president really wanted to retire. He’s just been re-elected amid political stalemate
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Castile and León: February 13, 2022
Austria, Local Elections in Tyrol: February 27, 2022
Netherlands Local Elections: March 16, 2022
Germany, Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, plus Belgrade City Assembly Elections: April 3, 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022
Iceland Local Elections: May 14, 2022
Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022
Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022
Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)
Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)
Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)
Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)
Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023
Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible
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