February 11, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Ghanta Ghar – the highest clocktower in India – in Lucknow, capital of Uttar Pradesh. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Manisha Katiyar (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Ongoing Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024. In the last national elections, in 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won a “thumping victory, securing a second term in office in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – has done well some subsequent state elections.
First up for this round of state polls: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 10 to March 7. The BJP currently dominates the state legislature, and the Chief Minister is controversial Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath.
Punjab will also vote on February 20. The state government is currently led by Congress Party. Manipur – currently led by BJP – votes on February 28 and March 5.
Gujarat (Modi’s home state) is due to vote later this year, and a handful of other states go to the polls in 2023.
Colm Quinn, Foreign Policy (February 11, 2022): How India’s Hijab Protests Could Bolster the BJP: Modi’s party faces a test of power in state elections. The latest intercommunal flare-up could stoke the base
Niha Masih, Washington Post (February 10, 2022): India’s 2022 state elections: What’s at stake for the BJP
BBC (February 10, 2022): UP elections 2022: Why western Uttar Pradesh is key for BJP
Rupam Jain and Saurabh Sharma, Reuters (February 7, 2022): Indian Hindu hardliner seeking re-election touts record on jobs, crime
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition People Power Party won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Four candidates will contest the March presidential election. The frontrunners are retired civil rights lawyer and former Gyeonggi Province (the most populous province that includes Seoul) governor Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party and former prosecutor general Yoon Suk-yeol from the People Power Party. Yoon is leading pre-election polls. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jeung, both from small parties, are also running. The campaign has generally been nasty and neither major candidate is particularly popular with voters or with his respective party – both won their primaries narrowly.
South Korea is a key United States ally, and the South Korean public broadly supports the alliance. However, Moon has pursued diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea and moved closer to China.
William Gallo, Voice of America (February 10, 2022): Anti-China Sentiment Erupts in South Korea Ahead of Vote
Khang Vu, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (February 9, 2022): A foreign policy cheat
sheet for South Korea’s presidential election
Yonhap (February 9, 2022): Nuke envoy stresses need for coordination with US amid increased fluidity on Korean Peninsula
Heesu Lee, Bloomberg (February 8, 2022): South Korea’s Nuclear Future is a New Election Battleground
Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Min Joo Kim, Washington Post (February 8, 2022): South Korea’s pivotal presidential election marred by scandals, bickering and insults
Darcie Draudt, Council on Foreign Relations (February 8, 2022): The South Korean Election’s Gender Conflict and the Future of Women Voters
Sotaro Suzuki, Nikkei Asia (February 7, 2022): South Korea ruling party offers humility before presidential vote: Voters have grown disillusioned with Democratic Party’s double moral standards
Malaysia, Early State Elections in Johor: March 12, 2022 and Early General Elections: Expected
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, subsequently held state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency, and Sabah, the other Borneo state, also held polls.
Next up: Johor, which borders Singapore, will hold snap elections on March 12, 2022 after the state’s chief minister dissolved the state legislature (elections were originally due in 2023).
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
Nadirah H. Rodzi, Straits Times (February 9, 2022): Johor’s state assembly election set for March 12
Hong Kong Chief Executive Election: March 27, 2022 (indirect)
Hong Kong held elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
On March 27, 2022, an Election Committee consisting of 1463 people – primarily pro-Beijing politicians and business figures – will choose the Chief Executive. Incumbent Carrie Lam is eligible to run for a second term, but it is unclear whether she will, and the process has been characterized by a lack of transparency and a heavy hand from Beijing. More
Chris Lau, South China Morning Post (February 12, 2022): Hong Kong chief executive race: surging coronavirus cases will keep campaigning low-key but Beijing may not mind a quiet affair, say analysts
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press (February 11, 2022): Beijing, Britain, pan-democrats or localists: Who is to blame for the death of Hong Kong’s democracy movement?
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who is not actually politically aligned with Duterte (in the Philippines, the president and vice president are elected separately, and Robredo ran in the last election on the Liberal Party ticket in opposition to Duterte).
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (February 11, 2022): Philippines Election Authority Dismisses More Complaints Against Marcos
Buena Bernal, Channel News Asia (February 9, 2022): COVID-19 fails to mute Philippines’ campaign frenzy as election season shows cracks in democracy, say analysts
AFP (February 8, 2022): Philippines kicks off chaotic election campaign season
Alan Robles, South China Morning Post (February 8, 2022): Philippine presidential election campaign begins: who’s running, who’s hottest, and what’s their South China Sea approach?
Andrea Chloe Wong, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (February 7, 2022): Philippine elections and the politics behind it: Filipino voters go to the polls to choose who will govern
them but not necessarily how they will be governed.
Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022, followed by General Elections
Several sets of elections could take place in Nepal within the next year. Local elections have been set for May 13.
Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
PTI (February 7, 2022): Nepal to conduct local level election on May 13
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More
Reuters (February 11, 2022): Australia thwarts Chinese plot to fund election candidates – media
Andrew Greene, ABC News Australia (February 10, 2022): China behind failed attempt to bankroll Labor candidates in federal election
Daniel Hurst, The Guardian (February 10, 2022): Anthony Albanese hits back at ‘nonsense’ suggestion China wants Labor to win federal election
Tony Walker, The Conversation (February 10, 2022): As the Coalition plays up China fears ahead of an election, how might Albanese position himself?
Chris Wallace, Nikkei Asia (February 7, 2022): Defeat stalks Australia’s Scott Morrison as May poll looms
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Richard S Ehrlich, Asia Times (February 11, 2022): Cambodia: Will Hun Manet be more pro-US than his father? West Point-trained heir apparent has more exposure to US but tilting away from his father’s pro-China policy isn’t likely on the cards
Radio Free Asia (February 11, 2022): 6 Cambodian Opposition Parties Mull Alliance to Challenge Hun Sen’s Party
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (February 10, 2022): As Cambodian Election Season Nears, Opposition Parties Prepare to Tackle Hun Sen: Upcoming commune and national elections won’t be free or fair, but they will offer signals of how the CPP plans to govern during its next mandate.
Radio Free Asia (February 7, 2022): Opposition Candlelight Party gains steam in Cambodia in shadow of crackdown
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
Gwen Robinson, Financial Times (February 8, 2022): Yangon’s calm masks Myanmar’s pain a year after military takeover
Yashraj Sharma, NBC News (February 8, 2022): Across the border from Myanmar, some avoid the fight while others sign up for it: A year after the military seized power in a coup, young people explain why they’re joining a national resistance movement at great personal risk
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Malaysia, Early State Elections in Johor: March 12, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
Japan, Gubernatorial Election in Okinawa: September 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
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Asia This Week: February 11, 2022
Last Updated: February 25, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 11, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Ongoing Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024. In the last national elections, in 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won a “thumping victory, securing a second term in office in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – has done well some subsequent state elections.
First up for this round of state polls: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 10 to March 7. The BJP currently dominates the state legislature, and the Chief Minister is controversial Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath.
Punjab will also vote on February 20. The state government is currently led by Congress Party. Manipur – currently led by BJP – votes on February 28 and March 5.
Gujarat (Modi’s home state) is due to vote later this year, and a handful of other states go to the polls in 2023.
Colm Quinn, Foreign Policy (February 11, 2022): How India’s Hijab Protests Could Bolster the BJP: Modi’s party faces a test of power in state elections. The latest intercommunal flare-up could stoke the base
Niha Masih, Washington Post (February 10, 2022): India’s 2022 state elections: What’s at stake for the BJP
BBC (February 10, 2022): UP elections 2022: Why western Uttar Pradesh is key for BJP
Rupam Jain and Saurabh Sharma, Reuters (February 7, 2022): Indian Hindu hardliner seeking re-election touts record on jobs, crime
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition People Power Party won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Four candidates will contest the March presidential election. The frontrunners are retired civil rights lawyer and former Gyeonggi Province (the most populous province that includes Seoul) governor Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party and former prosecutor general Yoon Suk-yeol from the People Power Party. Yoon is leading pre-election polls. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jeung, both from small parties, are also running. The campaign has generally been nasty and neither major candidate is particularly popular with voters or with his respective party – both won their primaries narrowly.
South Korea is a key United States ally, and the South Korean public broadly supports the alliance. However, Moon has pursued diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea and moved closer to China.
William Gallo, Voice of America (February 10, 2022): Anti-China Sentiment Erupts in South Korea Ahead of Vote
Khang Vu, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (February 9, 2022): A foreign policy cheat
sheet for South Korea’s presidential election
Yonhap (February 9, 2022): Nuke envoy stresses need for coordination with US amid increased fluidity on Korean Peninsula
Heesu Lee, Bloomberg (February 8, 2022): South Korea’s Nuclear Future is a New Election Battleground
Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Min Joo Kim, Washington Post (February 8, 2022): South Korea’s pivotal presidential election marred by scandals, bickering and insults
Darcie Draudt, Council on Foreign Relations (February 8, 2022): The South Korean Election’s Gender Conflict and the Future of Women Voters
Sotaro Suzuki, Nikkei Asia (February 7, 2022): South Korea ruling party offers humility before presidential vote: Voters have grown disillusioned with Democratic Party’s double moral standards
Malaysia, Early State Elections in Johor: March 12, 2022 and Early General Elections: Expected
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, subsequently held state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency, and Sabah, the other Borneo state, also held polls.
Next up: Johor, which borders Singapore, will hold snap elections on March 12, 2022 after the state’s chief minister dissolved the state legislature (elections were originally due in 2023).
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
Nadirah H. Rodzi, Straits Times (February 9, 2022): Johor’s state assembly election set for March 12
Hong Kong Chief Executive Election: March 27, 2022 (indirect)
Hong Kong held elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
On March 27, 2022, an Election Committee consisting of 1463 people – primarily pro-Beijing politicians and business figures – will choose the Chief Executive. Incumbent Carrie Lam is eligible to run for a second term, but it is unclear whether she will, and the process has been characterized by a lack of transparency and a heavy hand from Beijing. More
Chris Lau, South China Morning Post (February 12, 2022): Hong Kong chief executive race: surging coronavirus cases will keep campaigning low-key but Beijing may not mind a quiet affair, say analysts
Suzanne Pepper, Hong Kong Free Press (February 11, 2022): Beijing, Britain, pan-democrats or localists: Who is to blame for the death of Hong Kong’s democracy movement?
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who is not actually politically aligned with Duterte (in the Philippines, the president and vice president are elected separately, and Robredo ran in the last election on the Liberal Party ticket in opposition to Duterte).
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (February 11, 2022): Philippines Election Authority Dismisses More Complaints Against Marcos
Buena Bernal, Channel News Asia (February 9, 2022): COVID-19 fails to mute Philippines’ campaign frenzy as election season shows cracks in democracy, say analysts
AFP (February 8, 2022): Philippines kicks off chaotic election campaign season
Alan Robles, South China Morning Post (February 8, 2022): Philippine presidential election campaign begins: who’s running, who’s hottest, and what’s their South China Sea approach?
Andrea Chloe Wong, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (February 7, 2022): Philippine elections and the politics behind it: Filipino voters go to the polls to choose who will govern
them but not necessarily how they will be governed.
Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022, followed by General Elections
Several sets of elections could take place in Nepal within the next year. Local elections have been set for May 13.
Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More
PTI (February 7, 2022): Nepal to conduct local level election on May 13
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More
Reuters (February 11, 2022): Australia thwarts Chinese plot to fund election candidates – media
Andrew Greene, ABC News Australia (February 10, 2022): China behind failed attempt to bankroll Labor candidates in federal election
Daniel Hurst, The Guardian (February 10, 2022): Anthony Albanese hits back at ‘nonsense’ suggestion China wants Labor to win federal election
Tony Walker, The Conversation (February 10, 2022): As the Coalition plays up China fears ahead of an election, how might Albanese position himself?
Chris Wallace, Nikkei Asia (February 7, 2022): Defeat stalks Australia’s Scott Morrison as May poll looms
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Richard S Ehrlich, Asia Times (February 11, 2022): Cambodia: Will Hun Manet be more pro-US than his father? West Point-trained heir apparent has more exposure to US but tilting away from his father’s pro-China policy isn’t likely on the cards
Radio Free Asia (February 11, 2022): 6 Cambodian Opposition Parties Mull Alliance to Challenge Hun Sen’s Party
Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat (February 10, 2022): As Cambodian Election Season Nears, Opposition Parties Prepare to Tackle Hun Sen: Upcoming commune and national elections won’t be free or fair, but they will offer signals of how the CPP plans to govern during its next mandate.
Radio Free Asia (February 7, 2022): Opposition Candlelight Party gains steam in Cambodia in shadow of crackdown
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
Gwen Robinson, Financial Times (February 8, 2022): Yangon’s calm masks Myanmar’s pain a year after military takeover
Yashraj Sharma, NBC News (February 8, 2022): Across the border from Myanmar, some avoid the fight while others sign up for it: A year after the military seized power in a coup, young people explain why they’re joining a national resistance movement at great personal risk
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Malaysia, Early State Elections in Johor: March 12, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
Japan, Gubernatorial Election in Okinawa: September 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: February 10, 2022
Last Updated: February 21, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 10, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has called a constitutional referendum for February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The proposed changes would allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035. Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.
The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue.
In addition, Russia has been moving troops to Belarus in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine or other neighboring countries. More
Igor Ilyash, openDemocracy (February 9, 2022): Why is Belarus hosting Russian troops? Lukashenka’s crackdown on dissent at home has pushed his country into a deeper military alliance with Putin
Glenn Kates, Coda Story (February 7, 2022): Belarusian hackers on what it means to be a “Cyberpartisan”
Daniel McLaughlin, Irish Times (February 4, 2022): Belarus’s pro-democracy leader warns against using it to attack Ukraine
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 2023 and Presidential Election: By March 2024
Ukraine holds parliamentary elections in 2023 and a presidential election in 2024. In the last presidential vote, in 2019, Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko running on an anti-establishment platform. However, since then, the country’s traditional pro-Europe and pro-Moscow political forces have regained ground.
Russia’s military aggression, which began in 2014, continues, and the threat of further invasion looms large.
Derek Mitchell, The Hill (February 8, 2022): Why democracy matters in the Ukraine crisis
Past Eurasia Elections
Russia Parliamentary Elections: September 17-19, 2021
Russia held parliamentary elections September 17-19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
Consequently, the Kremlin launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him were banned from the election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – was able to field candidates.
Moreover, international technology companies such as Google and Apple assisted the regime by removing apps associated with Navalny’s Smart Vote. More
Ben Dubow, CEPA (February 8, 2022): With Enemies Like Russia’s Communists, Putin Doesn’t Need Friends: Russia’s President is blessed with an opposition more bellicose than he is.
Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021
Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature.
A series of protests in January 2022 rocked the country and left as many as 225 people dead, as well as a reported 12,000 people in detention. Russia briefly sent personnel under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), its military alliance of several post-Soviet states. More
Joanna Lillis, Eurasianet (February 5, 2022): Kazakhstan: Almaty protest calling for mayoral elections draws small crowd – The demonstration, which city hall allowed, passed peacefully.
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 27, 2022
Armenia Presidential Election (indirect): March 2022 (proposed)
Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 2022 (due)
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: February 9, 2022
Last Updated: February 21, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 9, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Castile and León: February 13, 2022
Spain’s Castile and León region will hold early elections to the regional legislature on February 13, 2022. The current government is a coalition of the conservative Popular Party and the liberal Citizens Party. The legislature traces its origins to the Cortes of León of 1188, which UNESCO has called the oldest example of a parliamentary system in Europe.
After that, the country holds local and general elections in 2023.
Elsa Garcia de Blas, El País (February 7, 2022 – in Spanish): The rise of Empty Spain brings suspense to the elections in Castilla y León
Netherlands Parliamentary Elections: March 17, 2021
Netherlands holds local elections on March 16, 2022. These follow the March 2021 parliamentary elections in which Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right VVD once again won the most seats. Coalition negotiations continued for nearly six months after the elections. The parties finally announced that they would renew the four-party coalition, and remain in government. More
Senay Boztas, Times of London (February 6, 2022): Dutch political party don Scottish kilts to gain votes: Wijchen Lokaal party in the lowlands declares love for the Highlands and dares people to ask what candidates have under their kilts
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Hungary is holding parliamentary elections on April 3, 2022. These elections will decide the government since Hungary is a parliamentary system. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.
A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.
Lili Bayer, Politico (February 5, 2022): OSCE recommends full-scale electoral monitoring mission in Hungary
Benjamin Novak and Andrew Higgins, New York Times (February 5, 2022): Facing Tough Election, Orban Turns to Putin for Support
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
While many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.
As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Republicans have selected Valérie Pécresse, president of the regional council of Île-de-France. The Socialists chose Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo as their candidate. Pécresse has polled in second and could very realistically beat both of the far-right candidates and make it to the runoff.
Stefano Graziosi and James Jay Carafano, Heritage Foundation (February 4, 2022): Will French Elections Fracture the Transatlantic Community?
Catherine Fieschi, Chatham House February 4, 2022): French elections: Macron seeks an encore
Slovenia General Elections: April 24, 2022
Slovenia will hold general elections on April 24, 2022. The current government is a conservative minority coalition headed by populist Janez Janša. It came to power in January 2020 after the center-left minority government of Marjan Šarec collapsed.
Makar Menshikov, Balkan Insight (February 9, 2022): Slovenia’s Election Result Will Echo Across the EU
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
The United Kingdom holds local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly (although the Northern Ireland elections could take place earlier). The Northern Ireland elections could be a watershed. Polling suggests that unionist parties could lose their majority and the nationalist Sinn Féin could become the biggest party. By far the biggest issue in public debate is Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements following Brexit.
In last year’s local elections, the Conservatives made gains on councils, particularly in England, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament. In the high-stakes Scottish Parliament elections, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) won the most seats after campaigning on another independence referendum, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum. All of Scotland’s local councils are up for election in 2022. The SNP is currently the biggest party in local government, and it is worth watching whether they make gains this year.
Jorge Valero, Bloomberg (February 10, 2022): Brexit Talks Are Stuck With Little Hope of Progress Before May
David Blevins, Sky News (February 8, 2022): Northern Ireland: Brandon Lewis rules out early elections after first minister’s resignation
Padraic Halpin, Reuters (February 3, 2022): Explainer: What Northern Irish political turmoil means for Brexit deal
Shawn Pogatchink, Politico (February 3, 2022): Northern Ireland first minister quits in Brexit protocol protest: Resignation fuels calls for a snap election.
Montenegro Parliamentary Elections: By August 2024 (early elections likely in May following government collapse)
Montenegro is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2024, but snap polls are possible. The last elections, the fifth since independence in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government. Zdravko Krivokapic from For the Future of Montenegro became the next prime minister. The political base of the Krivokapic’s coalition is generally pro-Moscow.
The government recently fell a no-confidence motion, which could lead to early elections in May.
Valentina Dimitrievska, bne Intellinews (February 7, 2022): Montenegro’s government toppled after weeks of political stalemate
Pedrag Milic, AP (February 4, 2022): Montenegro’s pro-Serbian governing coalition collapses: Montenegro’s conservative pro-Serbian coalition government has collapsed amid internal disputes, after parliament backed a no-confidence motion tabled by a junior coalition partner
Past Europe Elections
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal held snap elections on January 30, two years early, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote. The incumbent Socialist Party won, surprising observers with an outright majority, an upgrade from its previous minority government.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist s, regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
AP (February 8, 2022): New Portugal gov’t, preparing for power, shuts out populists
Jon Henley, The Guardian (February 4, 2022): Costa’s win in Portugal continues comeback by Europe’s centre-left
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Began January 24, 2022
Italy’s parliament began the process of choosing a president on January 24, and after six days and eight rounds of voting, lawmakers re-elected incumbent Sergio Mattarella. Although Italy’s president does not have much formal executive power, Mattarella has become increasingly powerful as a mediator in Italy’s recent series of political crises. Although he did not seek another term, he agreed to continue serving in order to preserve political stability.
Current prime minister Mario Draghi had indicated interest in the role, which threatened to trigger snap elections if the current broad coalition of right and left-wing parties does not hold together. Italy is currently not due for parliamentary elections until 2023. Some fear another bout of instability if Draghi leaves his current role – Draghi’s accession to the role of prime minister ended the last round of political chaos.
In addition, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi had been campaigning from the role, but withdrew before voting started.
General elections are due by June 2023.
Fitch Ratings (February 3, 2022): Italy Avoids Instability, but Presidential Election Shows Divisions
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Castile and León: February 13, 2022
Austria, Local Elections in Tyrol: February 27, 2022
Netherlands Local Elections: March 16, 2022
Germany, Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, plus Belgrade City Assembly Elections: April 3, 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022
Iceland Local Elections: May 14, 2022
Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Austria Presidential Election: Fall 2022 (due)
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022
Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022
Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)
Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)
Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)
Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)
Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023
Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: February 8, 2022
Last Updated: February 18, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 8, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Jordan Local Elections: March 22, 2022
Jordan will hold local elections on March 22, 2022. These follow parliamentary elections, which happened on November 10, 2020. Turnout was low, and both women and Islamist candidates saw poor results. Subsequently, King Abdullah II announced a new high-level committee to enact political reforms. This is not the first such effort in Jordan, and past attempts at change have been a disappointment to those who hope for reform, but it could be promising. Despite challenges, Jordan has generally been stable and politically moderate.
Jordan has been a close partner of the United States for several decades, and was designated a major non-NATO ally in 1996. More
Rana Husseini, Jordan Times (February 8, 2022): Number of local election candidates reaches 4,213 — IEC
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022 and General Elections: Long Overdue
The Palestinian Authority is holding elections in two phases, the first of which took place on December 11, 2021, and the second of which is due on March 26, 2022. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 17 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006.
Hamas, which controls Gaza, did not allow the local elections to take place there in December and has said it will also bar the March elections.
Thomas Grove and Fatima AbdulKarim, Wall Street Journal (February 8, 2022): Israel Offers Economic Help to Palestinians in Bid to Stem Influence of Hamas
The National UAE (February 6, 2022): Abbas pledges reform as embattled PLO holds rare meeting: Calls are growing for elections as Palestinians have not been to the ballot box for 16 years
Andrew Findell-Aghnatios and Tala Majzoub, Arab Reform Initiative (February 3, 2022): From inside and outside: Palestinian youth reshaping old electoral systems
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Lebanon has set parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.
Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that the upcoming elections could bring a hint of change.
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 15, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.
Benjamin Fox, Euractiv (February 3, 2022): Tunisia’s democracy on the brink as President Saied cracks down
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – date TBD
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. The UN has urged elections by June 2022, but Libya’s parliament has said elections would not take place this year.
Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More
Ahmed Elumami and Ayman al-Warfali, Reuters (February 8, 2022): With elections delayed again, Libya’s endless transition angers its people
Samy Magdy, AP (February 7, 2022): Libya’s parliament to appoint new PM, increasing tensions
Past Middle East Elections
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.
The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.
The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge, and Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – will be the kingmaker in the new government. More
Al Jazeera (February 8, 2022): Why Iraqi lawmakers failed to elect a new president: Legislators, many of them allied with powerful Shia Iraqi leader Muqtada al-Sadr, stayed away from the parliament session.
AFP (February 7, 2022): Iraq’s parliament indefinitely postpones presidential election
The New Arab (February 7, 2022): Iran’s Quds Force commander visits Iraq amid election deadlock
Mustafa Saadoun, Al-Monitor (February 3, 2022): Will Sadr lead Shiite political scene, exclude Iran’s allies from Cabinet?
Abbas Kadhim, Atlantic Council (February 3, 2022): Iraq is forming a new government. But getting there will be complicated.
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: Overdue (delayed from December 24, 2021 – no date set)
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023
Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: September 2023
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Israel Local Elections: October 2023
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: February 7, 2022
Last Updated: February 17, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
February 7, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Due, Indirect Presidential Election: By February 25, 2022 (tentative – preceded by indirect legislative elections)
Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, parties have agreed to complete the process by February 25, 2022, delayed from February 8, 2021, but are unlikely to meet the deadline. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays are exacerbating the country’s instability. Legislative election are underway, but proceeding slowly, and will unlikely be complete in time to meet the February 25 deadline for the presidential election.
Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More
Abdi Ismail Samatar, Daily Maverick (February 7, 2022): Somalia is the tribalist Humpty Dumpty that nobody has been able to put back together again
Democratic Republic of the Congo Gubernatorial and Vice-Gubernatorial Elections: April 6, 2022
The DRC will hold gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial elections on April 6, 2022. After that, the country is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.
The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
Radio Okapi (February 4, 2022 – in French): Kinshasa: CENI publishes timeline for elections of governors and vice governors
Julian Pecquet, The Africa Report (February 3, 2022): US lobbying: DRC’s Fayulu and Katumbi campaign in rematch against Tshisekedi
Republic of the Congo Legislative and Local Elections: July 2022
The Republic of the Congo (sometimes called Congo-Brazzaville) will hold legislative and local elections in July 2022 or thereabouts. These follow last year’s presidential election. Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been president almost continuously since 1979 and rules with an iron fist, won re-election. Elections have not been free or fair. More
Loïcia Martial, RFI (February 6, 2022 – in French): Congo-Brazzaville: political consultation before the July 2022 legislative elections
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Because of the crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.
Sethi Ncube, AllAfrica (February 7, 2022): Kenya: Campaigns Intensify as Nation Prepares For August General Election
Patrick Gathara, Al Jazeera (February 6, 2022): Kenyan youth are not to blame for their election apathy: For decades, elections have hardly made a difference in curbing violent plunder by Kenya’s ruling class.
Luke Anami, The East African (February 2, 2022): UK reassures investors in Kenya of peaceful business environment ahead of elections
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Angola holds presidential and legislative elections in August 2022. The country has not to date held free elections. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, has been in power since since independence in 1975. For 38 years, the MPLA’s José Eduardo Dos Santos ruled Angola with an iron fist. His regime engaged in rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Dos Santos’s successor, João Lourenço, has enacted some reforms and sought to curtail corruption, but many issues remain. Moreover, local elections (the country’s first) have been delayed repeatedly, at times sparking protests. The political climate remains tense.
MPLA’s vote share has been steadily decreasing with each successive election: it received 81 percent of the vote in 2008, 72 percent in 2012, and 61 percent in 2017. For the upcoming elections, the three main opposition parties will back a single presidential candidate: Adalberto Costa Junior, leader of UNITA, the main opposition party.
Angola is one of the biggest oil producers in Africa. More
Ngala Killian Chimtom, Crux (February 6, 2022): Angola bishops warn of ‘dark and nefarious’ atmosphere ahead of elections
Giovana Fleck, Global Voices (February 1, 2022): In an election year, press freedom declines in Angola
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds general elections on February 18, 2023, but some states are due to hold gubernatorial elections before that, including Ekiti and Osun states in 2022.
In addition, potential 2023 candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Dorcas Bello, The Africa Report (February 2, 2022): Nigeria: Are the pictures of rice pyramids an election tactic?
South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)
South Africa is due to hold general elections in May 2024.
Dubbed the “Rainbow Nation” by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, South Africa inspired the world with its nonviolent transition from apartheid in 1994. Since the end of apartheid and the subsequent victory of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nelson Mandela, the African National Congress (ANC) has been South Africa’s dominant political party, winning every election since then. However, in the local elections on November 1, 2021, which took place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption, the ANC had its worst election result since the end of apartheid, gaining less than 50 percent of the vote. More
Roger Southall, The Conversation (February 1, 2022): South Africa is in a state of drift: the danger is that the ANC turns the way of Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed to December 2025
Mali had set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup, but the interim government has proposed a delay to December 2025, sparking a backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.
In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (who has since died at age 76, having been in poor health for years), dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.
On May 25, 2021, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid. Most recently, the government has proposed delaying the elections to December 2025, sparking the threat of sanctions from the regional bloc ECOWAS. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has called the interim government illegitimate, and the international community has condemned its failure to make progress against the jihadist threat that plages the Sahel.
Reuters (February 5, 2022): Mali could set new election date after review of post-coup charter
Robin Emmott and John Irish, Reuters (February 1, 2022): EU to blacklist five members of Mali’s junta, diplomats say
Burkina Faso Elections: TBD, following coup
Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022, but delays are likely due to the growing security crisis and recent coup.
On January 24, 2022, a group of soldiers detained President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, dissolved the legislature, and declared that a military junta would control the country moving forward. This coup (which follows coups in nearby Guinea, Chad, and Mali) plunges the country’s political future into even greater uncertainty. Burkina Faso avoided an earlier coup attempt, and some analysts believed that a successful coup was only a matter of time given simmering discontent with Kabore’s handling of the jihadist threat and other issues.
Captain Sidsore Kaber Ouedraogo of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (the name the junta has given itself) says new elections will take place in the future, but has not specified a date. More
Reuters (February 4, 2022): Burkina Faso junta says it will work with regional bloc
Francis Kokutse, AP (February 3, 2022): ECOWAS asks Burkina Faso junta for election date proposal
Al Jazeera (February 3, 2022): Burkinabe army willing to restore constitutional order: ECOWAS: West African bloc says asked ruling military in Burkina Faso that seized power last week to rapidly propose an election timetable.
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
On September 5, 2021, Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, fell in a military coup. Guinea’s political future remains uncertain, but regional and international bodies, as well as Guinean civil society and political groups, have urged elections.
Condé was re-elected in October 2020 amid violence. He sought and won a controversial third term, and for the third time, faced off against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both candidates claimed they won, but election officials declared Condé the winner. However, Diallo challenged the results, alleging fraud and prompting street protests leading to at least 10 deaths. The government arrested a number of opposition members following the election. More
Al Jazeera (February 6, 2022): Guinea transitional assembly holds first post-coup session: West African bloc ECOWAS says Guinea should hold elections by mid-March.
Past Africa Elections
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election: November 24, 2019
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats, voting in Aristide Gomes as prime minister. Subsequently, Umaro Sissoco Embaló won the November 2019 presidential election, defeating incumbent José Mário Vaz and 10 other candidates.
Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Although analysts believed that the March 2019 legislative elections improved the situation, the country regressed once again at the end of October 2019, when Vaz fired Gomes, and Gomes refused to leave office – the third government dissolution in two years.
There is an ever-present risk of a coup (and in fact, one was attempted in January 2022), and the next elections – due in November 2024 – could be delayed – there is a debate over whether holding the elections as scheduled or delaying them would be a better move for stability.
Al Jazeera (February 2, 2022): Guinea-Bissau’s ‘attempted coup’: What you need to know
Vagner Barbosa, AP (February 1, 2022): Guinea-Bissau president: ‘Attack on democracy’ thwarted: The president of Guinea-Bissau says calm has returned to the capital of the West African country after prolonged gunfire around the government palace
Coups
Lukman Abolade, International Centre for Investigative Reporting Nigeria (February 4, 2022): Africa records 21 coup attempts in eight years
AFP (February 3, 2022): W. African leaders hold emergency summit after spate of coups
Komlan Avoulete, Foreign Policy Research Institute (February 3, 2022): Should ECOWAS Rethink its Approach to Coups?
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Ongoing
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: February 25, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Gubernatorial and Vice-Gubernatorial Elections: April 6, 2022
Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 9, 2022
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays possible)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022
Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (due – delays possible)
Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022
Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)
Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023
Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023
Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)
South Sudan General Elections: By March 2023 (tentative)
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023
Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)
Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)
Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)
Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)
Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Togo Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: TBD, following coup
Burkina Faso Elections: TBD, following coup
Guinea Elections: TBD, following coup
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