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Asia This Week: January 14, 2022

Last Updated: January 24, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment

January 14, 2022

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

The airport in DIli, Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste has set its presidential election for March 19. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Looper5920 (public domain)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)

Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi.

First up: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 20 to March 7.

Sudha Ramachandran, The Diplomat (January 13 2022): India State Assembly Elections: Where Is the Level Playing Field? Multi-phase assembly elections will give parties with deeper pockets like the BJP an undue advantage.

Nidhi Verma and Nigam Prusty, Reuters (January 8, 2022): Elections in India’s most populous state to start in Feb. 10

Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022

Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) will hold a presidential election in March 2022. Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although some challenges remain.

https://twitter.com/raynorsophie/status/1482592513433423875

Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022

Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.

Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan. Although Pacquiao is still running, the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who comes from the Liberal Party and has different views from Duterte – the president and vice president are elected separately and Robredo was not Duterte’s running mate in the 2016 election but rather ran on a ticket with Liberal candidate Mar Roxas, who placed second. Marcos is currently leading pre-election polls, with Robredo polling second, but that could change.

While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.

Timothy McLaughlin, The Atlantic (January 14, 2022): The Duo Fighting to Preserve Dynastic Rule in the Philippines

David Tristan Yumol, CNN Philippines (January 8, 2022): Election period, gun ban to start on Jan. 9

Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More

Damien Cave, New York Times (January 11, 2022): How the ‘Djokovic Affair’ Came Back to Bite Australia’s Prime Minister

Stephen Evans, The Independent (January 10, 2022): Novak Djokovic case puts Australian government in no-win situation ahead of elections

Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)

Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”

The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

Charles McDermid, New York Times (January 15, 2022): Cambodia’s Internet May Soon Be Like China’s: State-Controlled

Radio Free Asia (January 13, 2022): Cambodian authorities tell opposition party, ‘Take down your signs’: The move comes amid ruling party concerns over the Candlelight Party’s growing popularity ahead of local elections.

Sun Narin and Lors Liblib, Voice of America (January 11, 2022): Jailed, Sick, Still Struggling: A Brother’s Plea to Quit Politics Goes Ignored

Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)

Japan holds elections for half of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on July 25, 2022. These follow general elections that took placeon October 31, a bit earlier than the November deadline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, won another term in office, despite somewhat decreased approval ratings in recent months.

The general elections followed the LDP’s September 29 leadership contest. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga did not seek re-election. Foreign minister Fumio Kishida defeated vaccine czar Kono Taro in a runoff, as well as the hawkish former internal affairs minister Takaichi Sanae and former gender equality minister Noda Seiko.

In addition, Japanese cities and prefectures hold gubernatorial and mayoral elections at various times throughout the year.

Ryo Nemato, Nikkei Asia (January 15, 2022): Seiji Kihara: The policy guru behind Japan Prime Minister Kishida – Inspired by Margaret Thatcher, the protege also takes cues from Yoshihide Suga

Eric Johnston, Japan Times (January 13, 2022): Okinawa’s busy political year set to have major impact on national security

Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Fiji is due to hold parliamentary elections in November 2022. In 2006, Josaia Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama seized power in a coup. Since then, the country has held several sets of elections that Bainimarama has won. Despite concerns about media freedom and political space for the opposition, some observers have deemed the elections credible – Bainimarama has at least brought political stability, making him popular with many Fijians.

Scott MacWilliam, East Asia Forum (January 14, 2022): The politics of COVID-19 and military government in Fiji

Taiwan Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

Taiwan, a robust democracy, is due to hold local elections in November 2022.

The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.

Brian Hioe, The Diplomat (January 10, 2022): KMT Served Double Defeat in Taiwan’s Latest Recall and By-Election: A recall against independent Freddy Lim fell short, and the KMT’s candidate lost a by-election to fill another seat vacated by a previous recall campaign.

Joyu Wang, Wall Street Journal (January 7, 2022): ‘Revenge Recalls’ Spark Debate in Taiwan: How Much Democracy Is Too Much? Metalhead lawmaker Freddy Lim is the fifth politician to face a recall in the past year; some see benefits for China in elections that ‘never end’

Malaysia General Elections: By May 2023 (early elections highly likely)

Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the national ruling coalition. Subsequently, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, held snap polls on December 18, delivering yet another win for the government’s allies. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.

The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister).

Malaysia sits on a key strategic chokepoint – the Strait of Malacca – and has sought to engage both the United States and China as it seeks to build its regional influence. More

Michael Hart, World Politics Review (January 14, 2022): Business as Usual Won’t End Malaysia’s Political Paralysis

Human Rights Watch (January 13, 2022): Malaysia: Rights Sharply Decline Amid Political Instability

Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)

Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.

The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand.

Neha Banka, Indian Express (January 10, 2022): Explained: Why political parties in Maldives are pushing back against “India Out” protests

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021

Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.

In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics, so Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect. More

Alice Fung, AP (January 12, 2022): Hong Kong ‘patriots only’ legislature convenes first session

Stratfor (January 12, 2022): A Plan to Expand Hong Kong’s National Security Law Accelerates China’s Takeover

AP (January 12, 2022): Former Xinjiang Security Official Takes Charge of Hong Kong Garrison

Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Nepal National Assembly Elections: January 26, 2022 (voting for 1/3 of upper house)

India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)

South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022

Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022

Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022

Nepal Provincial Elections: April or May 2022 (due)

Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)

Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022

Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022

Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022

Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)

Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)

Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022

Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)

New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)

Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Taiwan Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)

Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022

Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022

India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)

India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)

Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)

Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023

Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023

Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)

India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)

Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)

Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)

Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)

Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)

New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)

Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)

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Eurasia This Week: January 13, 2022

Last Updated: January 23, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment

January 13, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

The Abai Theatre in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Kalpak Travel (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 2022 (proposed)

Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has announced plans to hold a constitutional referendum in February 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.

The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. More

Claudia Palazzo, Kyiv Post (January 10, 2022): “Putin Constitution” proposals in Belarus Spell Trouble for Ukraine

Past Eurasia Elections

Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021

Uzbekistan held a presidential election on October 24, 2021. Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate freely in the country. Although some had hoped that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev would face a serious challenger this year, that did not happen. Instead, would-be challengers were either denied ballot access or dropped out. More

Alisher Khamidov, Eurasianet (January 12, 2022): Why Uzbekistan does not fear a “Kazakh Winter”

Reid Standish, RFE/RL (January 6, 2022): For Kazakhstan’s Autocratic Neighbors, Unrest Is A Warning And A Test

Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021

Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature.

A series of protests that began in January 2022 is currently rocking the country. Russia has sent personnel to intervene. More

Erica Marat and Assel Tutumlu, Foreign Policy (January 11, 2022): Kazakhstan’s Protests Aren’t a Color Revolution

Larry C. Napper, The Conversation (January 11, 2022): Why the US cares about what happens in Kazakhstan – 5 questions answered by former ambassador

Ron Synovitz, RFE/RL (January 7, 2022): ‘We Are Not Terrorists!’: Kazakh Protesters Try To Make Their Voices Heard Amid The Chaos

Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal (January 6, 2022): Kazakhstan Unrest and Russia’s Intervention Transform Ties With Moscow

Jim Heintz, AP (January 6, 2022): Dozens of protesters, 12 police dead in Kazakhstan protests

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Belarus Constitutional Referendum: By February 2022 (proposed)

Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 2022 (due)

Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)

Europe This Week: January 12, 2022

Last Updated: January 22, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment

January 12, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A court building in North Nicosia, in Northern Cyprus. Photo credit: Wikimedia/A. Savin

Upcoming Europe Elections

Cyprus, Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022 and Republic of Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)

Northern Cyprus

Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey, is holding snap elections on January 22 following the resignation of the government. In last year’s presidential election, Ankara-backed nationalist Ersin Tatar won, exacerbating tensions on the island. The elections are taking place amid widespread protests and a tanking economy.

Cyprus is divided between the mostly Greek-speaking south and the Turkish-speaking north, and both Greece and Turkey play in the country’s politics.

Helena Smith, The Guardian (January 9, 2022): Rising anger with Turkey drives calls for reunification in crisis-hit northern Cyprus

Cyprus

The Republic of Cyprus is due to hold a presidential election in 2023. Cyprus’s two biggest parties are the center-right Democratic Rally (DISY), affiliated with the European People’s Party, Centrist Democrat International, and the International Democrat Union, and the communist Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL).

Cyprus has presidential system – the only full presidential system in the EU). In the last presidential election, in 2018, DISY’s Nicos Anastasiades won re-election in the runoff, defeating AKEL’s Stavros Malas.

Reuters (January 9, 2022): Cyprus foreign minister quits in presidential succession battle

Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022

On January 23, 2022, Finland will hold elections to newly-created county councils. These councils will assume responsibility for providing healthcare (the responsibility previously fell to municipal councils).

Following the 2019 parliamentary elections, a left-leaning coalition came into government nationally. The conservative National Coalition Party won the most seats in the local elections, with the Social Democrats placing second. The far-right Finns Party made gains in its vote share. More

David MacDougall, Euronews (January 12, 2022): How voters in Finland are set to decide the biggest healthcare reform in decades

Pekka Vanttinen, Euractiv (January 6, 2022): Low turnout expected in Finland’s first-ever county elections

YLE News (January 1, 2022): Marin on Nato: Finland should keep options open: In her New Year’s message Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) said Finland can apply for Nato membership if it wants to.

Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Begins January 24, 2022

Italy’s parliament will begin the process of choosing a president on January 24. Although Italy’s president does not have much formal executive power, current president Sergio Mattarella, who is not seeking another term, has become increasingly powerful as a mediator in Italy’s recent series of political crises.

Current prime minister Mario Draghi has indicated interest in the role, which could trigger snap elections if the current broad coalition of right and left-wing parties does not hold together. Italy is currently not due for parliamentary elections until 2023. Some fear another bout of instability if Draghi leaves his current role – Draghi’s accession to the role of prime minister ended the last round of political chaos.

In addition, none other than former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi – currently age 85 – is also angling for the role in a campaign dubbed “Operation Squirrel.” Numerous other political figures could be put forward for nomination.

Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian (January 11, 2022): Silvio Berlusconi steps up Italy presidential campaign with threat to coalition

Silvia Amaro, CNBC (January 10, 2022): Mario Draghi brought political stability to Italy. Now, a key election threatens it all

Thibault Spirlet, Politico (January 4, 2022): Italy’s parliament set to vote for new president on January 24

Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022

Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.

Sergio Goncalves, Reuters (January 8, 2022): Portugal’s Socialists retain lead ahead of election but gap narrows – poll

Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Castile and León: February 13, 2022

Spain’s Castile and León region will hold early elections to the regional legislature on February 13, 2022. After that, the country holds local and general elections in 2023.

Alana Moceri, World Politics Review (January 3, 2022): Spain’s Rural Parties Look to Shake Up the Status Quo

Germany Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022, followed by Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022, and Lower Saxony State Elections: October 8, 2022

Germany holds several sets of state elections in 2022, following the “Superwahljahr” (Super Election Year) of 2021, which saw the defeat of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a new “traffic light coalition” government consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.

Geir Moulson, AP (January 5, 2022): Main German opposition party backs second term for president

Ben Knight, DW (January 4, 2022): Germany’s election year 2022 — What’s in store for German politics? There are four state elections set for this year for the German parties to fight.

Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022

Hungary is holding parliamentary elections on April 3, 2022. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.

A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.

Krisztina Than, Reuters (January 11, 2022): Hungary sets April 3 election with PM Orban facing united opposition

John Wagner, Washington Post (January 3, 2022): Trump offers unusual endorsement of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban ahead of parliamentary elections

France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.

While many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.

As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Republicans have selected Valérie Pécresse, president of the regional council of Île-de-France. The Socialists chose Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo as their candidate. Pécresse has polled in second and could very realistically beat both of the far-right candidates and make it to the runoff.

William Horobin, Ania Nussbaum, and Caroline Alexander, Bloomberg (January 13, 2022): For Macron and France, It’s the Economy, Stupide: Culture-war clashes make all the noise, but a strong recovery from the pandemic crash may be what sways French voters in April.

Robert M. Cutler, Geopolitical Monitor (January 11, 2022): The Role of Armenia in French Elections

Barbara Surk, AP (January 10, 2022): Macron talks up security in French conservative stronghold

Adam Sage, Times of London (January 4, 2022): French election: Valerie Pécresse vows to unite France with ‘army of conquest’: Macron’s centre-right challenger invokes Napoleon as she steps up presidential campaign

France24 (January 3, 2022): French election year kicks off with EU flag fracas at Paris’s Arc de Triomphe

Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)

Austria is due to hold a presidential election in April 2022, although in Austria’s parliamentary system, the role is largely ceremonial. Recently, the double resignation of center-right chancellor Sebastian Kurz and subsequently his successor, Alexander Schallenberg, has shaken politics. General elections to select the next government are not due until 2024, but snap elections remain possible. In addition, a number of states hold state and local elections in 2023.

Matthew Karnitschnig, Politico (January 12, 2022): Austria’s democratic deficit disorder: The country has found itself lurching from scandal to scandal.

AFP (January 6, 2022): Health first, freedom second? How Covid is changing democracies

United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022

The United Kingdom holds local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly (although the Northern Ireland elections could take place earlier). The Northern Ireland elections could be a watershed. Polling suggests that unionist parties could lose their majority and the nationalist Sinn Féin could become the biggest party. By far the biggest issue in public debate is Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements following Brexit.

In last year’s local elections, the Conservatives made gains on councils, particularly in England, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament. In the high-stakes Scottish Parliament elections, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) won the most seats after campaigning on another independence referendum, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum. All of Scotland’s local councils are up for election in 2022. The SNP is currently the biggest party in local government, and it is worth watching whether they make gains this year.

Jude Webber, Financial Times (January 4, 2022): Brexit casts shadow over Northern Ireland elections: Party divisions over trading arrangements reflect region’s sectarian divide ahead of pivotal May poll

Freya McClements, Irish Times (January 8, 2022): Will the Stormont Assembly fall before elections in May?

James Crisp, The Telegraph (December 30, 2021): Stormont elections must not become referendum on Northern Ireland Protocol, warns Dublin

Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022

Sweden holds general elections on September 11, 2022.

In June 2021, the left-leaning coalition led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven fell in a no-confidence vote. Lofven was re-elected PM, but could fall in yet another no-confidence vote if his government cannot pass a budget. In August, Lofven suddenly announced his resignation, effective in November. Magdalena Andersson, currently the finance minister, looks likely to succeed him and become Sweden’s first female prime minister.

Richard Milne, Financial Times (January 5, 2022): Sweden’s opposition leader calls for united front over right to join Nato: Country should adopt Finland’s approach in face of Russian threats, says centre-right party

AP (January 5, 2022): Sweden creates agency to combat fake news ahead of election

Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights.

BiH consists of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mostly by Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats, and the Republika Srpska, with mostly Orthodox Serbs. Recently, tensions have flared as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has used increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and taken actions that some analysts see as moving toward secession.

Marton Dunai, Financial Times (January 13, 2022): Bosnian Serb leader Dodik defiant over sanctions as tensions flare

Svetlana Cenić, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s IPS Journal (January 10, 2022): Could Bosnia and Herzegovina disintegrate?

Past Europe Elections

Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021

Bulgaria held a presidential election on November 14 along with parliamentary elections – the third this year after no one could form a government following the first two. It appears that the third time was a charm, as a new political party called We Continue the Change (whose founders tout their Harvard credentials) formed a broad coalition.

The elections brought forth a major change, ousting former PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB, which had governed for most of the last 12 years. The country also saw the rise of a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, which came in second in the April elections and first in the July elections. Despite being edged out by We Continue the Change in November, ITN will be part of the new coalition. The other parties in the government will be the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the centrist/center-right Democratic Bulgaria coalition.

Bulgaria is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU); however, it remains the poorest and most corrupt member of the EU. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to influence Bulgaria. Moreover, Bulgaria is currently embroiled in a diplomatic dispute with neighboring North Macedonia involving issues of language and history. Last year, it blocked North Macedonia’s EU accession. This comes on the heels of North Macedonia literally changing its name in order to get Greece to stop blocking its NATO and EU membership. More

Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (January 4, 2022): Bulgaria in 2022: Can a New Government ‘Continue the Change’?

North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021

North Macedonia held local elections on October 17, 2021 which delivered a landslide victory for the conservative/nationalist opposition VMRO-DPMNE and resulted in the resignation of PM Zoran Zaev of the Social Democratic Union (SDSM). These follow parliamentary elections in July 2020 in which SDSM won a second term. North Macedonia’s next general elections are not due until 2024, but the opposition is calling for snap polls in light of the results of the local elections.

Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up).

The country’s politics remain fragmented and fractious.

Sinisa Jakov Marusic, Balkan Insight (January 13, 2022): North Macedonia in 2022: New Govt – and EU Hopes – Rest on Thin Ice

Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (January 11, 2022): Bulgarian President Reconfirms Hardline Stance on North Macedonia

Ivaylo Ditchev, DW (January 10, 2022): My Europe: Bulgaria vs. North Macedonia — is there a way forward?

RFE/RL (December 29, 2021): North Macedonia’s President Asks Kovachevski To Form New Government

Netherlands Parliamentary Elections: March 17, 2021

Netherlands held parliamentary elections on March 17, 2020. Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right VVD once again won the most seats, but coalition negotiations continued for nearly six months after the elections. The parties finally announced that they would renew the four-party coalition, and remain in government. More

Mike Corder, AP (January 10, 2022): Dutch king swears in new ruling coalition, Rutte’s 4th

Lukas Kotkamp, Politico (January 3, 2022): 8 things to know about the incoming Dutch government

Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Serbia Constitutional Referendum: January 16, 2022

Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022

Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022

Italy Indirect Presidential Election: January 24, 2022

Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022

Netherlands Local Elections: March 16, 2022

Germany, Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022

Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022

Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, plus Belgrade City Assembly Elections: April 3, 2022

France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022

Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022

Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)

United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022

Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022

Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022

France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022

Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022

Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022

Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022

Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022

Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022

Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)

Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)

Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023

Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)

Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)

Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)

Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)

Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023

Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)

Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)

Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023

Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)

Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)

Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023

Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)

Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)

Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023

Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023

Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023

Norway Local Elections: September 2023

Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023

Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023

Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)

Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023

Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible)

Middle East This Week: January 11, 2022

Last Updated: January 22, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment

January 11, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

The neighborhood of Ras Beirut in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Karas Jain (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022

The Palestinian Authority is holding elections in two phases, the first of which took place on December 11, 2021, and the second of which is due on March 26, 2022. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 17 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006.

Hamas, which controls Gaza, did not allow the local elections to take place there in December and has said it will also bar the March elections.

Khaled Abu Toameh, Jerusalem Post (January 3, 2022): Hamas says rejects municipal elections in Gaza

Hazem Balousha, Arab News (January 3, 2022): Palestinian parties urged to remove obstacles for local elections in Gaza and West Bank

Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022

Lebanon has set parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.

Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that the upcoming elections could bring a hint of change.

Al-Monitor (January 11, 2022): Protesters block roads in Lebanon as currency hits new low

Jennifer Holleis and Razan Salman, DW (January 8, 2022): Lebanon’s PM to Hezbollah: ‘For God’s sake, have mercy’

William Christou, The New Arab (January 5, 2022): Lebanon MPs to regain immunity in Beirut blast probe following new parliament session

Arwa Damon, CNN (December 30, 2021): Lebanon’s soul has been eviscerated by its financial crisis. Not even the children want to play

Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 15, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022

Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.

Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.

Cathrin Schaer and Tarak Guizani, DW (January 12, 2022): Tunisia’s first digital political consultation divides opinions: The country’s first-ever digital consultation on a new constitution is part of Tunisian President Kais Saied’s path out of a political crisis. But like Saied himself, online innovation has received mixed reactions.

Anthony Dworkin, European Council on Foreign Relations (January 11, 2022): Tunisia’s lengthy road map back to democracy

Stratfor (December 30, 2021): 2022 Reforms Will Place Tunisia’s Arab Spring Gains on the Line

Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – could possibly happen by June 2022

Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. The UN has urged elections by June 2022.

Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More

Anchal Vohra, Foreign Policy (January 4, 2022): Elections Can’t Fix What’s Wrong With Libya

Turkey General Elections: By June 18, 2023 (snap elections possible)

Turkey is due for general elections in June 2023, but there have been rumors of possible snap elections, and more than half of Turkish citizens want an early vote.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.

Andrew Wilks, Al-Monitor (January 5, 2022): Turkey’s opposition faces Erdogan’s ire as economic crisis muddles election timetable: Opposition parties are under growing pressure as Turkey waits to see if Recep Tayyip Erdogan will call early elections despite skyrocketing prices.

Soner Cagaptay, Foreign Affairs (January 4, 2022): Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?

Past Middle East Elections

Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021

Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.

The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.

The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge, and Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – will be the kingmaker in the new government. More

Sinan Mahmoud, The National UAE (January 11, 2022): Pro-Iran Shiite factions in Iraq warn of ‘tough days’ amid election row

Ahmed Rasheed and Haider Khadim, Reuters (January 10, 2022): Iraq’s new parliament elects speaker in first step towards establishing a govt

Al Jazeera (January 9, 2022): Chaotic scenes as Iraq’s new parliament holds first session: The speaker selection process was disrupted as competing political blocs claimed to hold a parliamentary majority.

Celine Alkhaldi, Aqeel Najim, CNN and Reuters (December 28, 2021): Iraq’s supreme court ratifies contested election results

Upcoming Kurdistan Regional Elections: September 2023 (due)

Elections for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are due in September 2023.

Layal Shakir, Rudaw (January 5, 2022): Upcoming Kurdistan Region election to be held on time: ruling parties

Regional Analysis

Al-Monitor (December 31, 2021): Middle East elections had consequences in 2021

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: January 24, 2021 (delayed from December 24, 2021 – additional delays possible)

Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022

Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022

Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022

Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022

Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023

Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: September 2023

Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023

Israel Local Elections: October 2023

Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023

United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)

Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled

Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19

Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Africa This Week: January 10, 2022

Last Updated: January 21, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment

January 10, 2022

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

A street in Bamako, Mali’s capital, with the presidential palace in the background. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Robin Taylor (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022, followed by legislative elections in 2022 and a presidential election in 2024

Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 23, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022.

Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.

A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. More

Babacar Dione, AP (January 6, 2022): Senegal rejects bill to double jail time for homosexuality

Mawunyo Hermann Boko, The Africa Report (December 29, 2021): Senegal: Why the opposition wants to toughen the law against homosexuality

Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Due, Indirect Presidential Election: By February 25, 2022 (tentative – preceded by indirect legislative elections)

Somalia does not hold direct elections, but rather holds indirect elections in a clan-based system. Currently, an indirect presidential election is planned for October 10, delayed from February 8, 2021. The term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.

An ongoing conflict between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and continual election delays are exacerbating the country’s instability.

Somalia’s strategic location means that instability has impact beyond its borders. More

Mohamed Kahiye, Voice of America (January 10, 2022): Somali Leaders Urged to Implement New Elections Agreement

AFP (January 9, 2022): Somalia’s leaders agree to hold delayed election by February 25

Larry Madowo, CNN (December 27, 2021): Fears of political violence rise as Somalia’s president and prime minister jockey for power

Dharvi Vaid, DW (December 27, 2021): Somalia: President ‘suspends’ prime minister amid tensions over elections

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups – delay until December 2025 proposed)

Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government.

On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid. Most recently, the government has proposed delaying the elections to December 2025, sparking the threat of sanctions from the regional bloc ECOWAS.

Danielle Paquette, Washington Post (January 10, 2022): Two coups and no election later, West Africa cuts off Mali

Christian Akorlie and Tiemoko Diallo, Reuters (January 10, 2022): West African nations sever links with Mali over election delay

Christian Akorlie, Reuters (January 9, 2022): Mali eyes elections in four years as West African bloc mulls sanctions

Christopher Michael Faulkner, The Conversation (January 10, 2022): Rising instability in Mali raises fears about role of private Russian military group

Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 2022 (due)

Gambia is due to hold legislative and local elections in April 2022. These follow the December 2021 presidential election, the first since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box.

In a 2016’s surprising election result, then-opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy. Jammeh sought to influence this election from exile (he is currently in Equatorial Guinea). Although Jammeh and Barrow had previously made a controversial pre-election deal, they abandoned it and Jammeh ultimately called on voters to oust Barrow, who nonetheless won re-election by a large margin. Even though international observers and Gambian civil society organizations have called the 2021 presidential election credible, some opposition candidates are challenging the results. More

Marième Soumaré, The Africa Report (January 6, 2022): The Gambia: Will Yahya Jammeh be tried by an African court?

DW (December 29, 2021): Gambia’s highest court dismisses challenge to Adama Barrow’s election

Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)

Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022, but delays are possible due to the growing security crisis. These follow presidential and parliamentary elections on November 22, 2020. The political climate remains uncertain as the country’s democrats seek to consolidate the young, fragile democracy. More

Boureima, Wakat Séra (January 1, 2022): Holding municipal elections is “imperative,” according to the Convention of Civil Society Organizations

Republic of the Congo Legislative and Local Elections: July 2022

The Republic of the Congo (sometimes called Congo-Brazzaville) will hold legislative and local elections in July 2022 or thereabouts. These follow last year’s presidential election. Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been president almost continuously since 1979 and rules with an iron fist, won re-election. Elections have not been free or fair. More

RFI (January 3, 2022 – in French): Congo-Brazzaville: part of the opposition calls for consultation before the legislative elections

Arsène Séverin, Voice of America (December 29, 2021 – in French): Denis Sassou N’Guesso announces elections in 2022

Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022

Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.

Because of the crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.

Duncan Miriri, Reuters (January 6, 2022): China’s foreign minister visits Kenya amid unease over rising debt

Africanews (December 29, 2021): Brawl erupts in Kenya parliament over political parties bill

Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022

Angola holds presidential and legislative elections in August 2022. The country has not to date held free elections. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, has been in power since since independence in 1975. For 38 years, the MPLA’s José Eduardo Dos Santos ruled Angola with an iron fist. His regime engaged in rampant corruption and kleptocracy. Dos Santos’s successor, João Lourenço, has enacted some reforms and sought to curtail corruption, but many issues remain. Moreover, local elections (the country’s first) have been delayed repeatedly, at times sparking protests. The political climate remains tense.

MPLA’s vote share has been steadily decreasing with each successive election: it received 81 percent of the vote in 2008, 72 percent in 2012, and 61 percent in 2017. For the upcoming elections, the three main opposition parties will back a single presidential candidate: Adalberto Costa Junior, leader of UNITA, the main opposition party.

Angola is one of the biggest oil producers in Africa. More

Candido Mendes and Henrique Almeida, Bloomberg (January 10, 2022): Angola Taxi Drivers’ Strike Sparks Protests Against Ruling Party

Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022

Somaliland plans to hold a presidential election on November 13, 2022, following long-delayed parliamentary and local elections that finally took place on May 31, 2021. In those elections, the two main opposition parties, Waddani and UCID, together won more seats in parliament than the governing Kulmiye party. Waddani and UCID will team up to choose a parliament speaker and on local councils (where they also won). Somaliland is a presidential system, so there’s no PM. But it is significant for democracy that the opposition won the “midterms.”

President Muse Bihi Abdi from Kulmiye is eligible to seek a second term in 2022.

Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections. It is located on the Bab el-Mandeb, a strait through which most oil and gas from the Persian Gulf – and a lot of other international commerce – transits. Thus the geopolitical stakes are high. More

Conrad Heine, African Arguments (January 10, 2022): How did Somaliland end up with zero female MPs?

Committee for the Protection of Journalists (December 31, 2021): Somaliland authorities arrest three journalists for critical reporting

Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)

The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.

When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.

The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.

Adenikè Adegbidi, London School of Economics (December 29, 2021): The next DRC elections could weaponise ‘Congolité’ identity

Sudan General Elections: By 2024 (due – unclear following coup)

Sudan plans to hold general elections by 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. Civil servant and diplomat Abdalla Hamdok became prime minister.

However, another coup in October 2021 returned Sudan to military rule. Hamdok resigned. Protests continue and the country’s political future remains uncertain.

Samy Magdy, AP (January 4, 2022): Anti-coup protests in Sudan amid turmoil after PM resigns

Reuters (January 3, 2022): Explainer: Sudan’s political transition in the balance

Max Bearak and Miriam Berger, Washington Post (January 2, 2022): Sudan’s prime minister resigns, unable to build new civilian government after coup

Past Africa Elections

South Africa Local Elections: November 1, 2021

South Africa held local elections on November 1, 2021. Voters elected councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. The elections took place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. In that vein, the ruling African National Congress had its worst election result since the end of apartheid, gaining less than 50 percent of the vote. More

Mogomotsi Magome, AP (January 7, 2022): South Africa’s ruling party marks birthday amid divisions

Joseph Warungu, BBC (January 2, 2022): Letter from Africa: Africa plays on in 2022 without its great referee

Eusebius McKaiser, Foreign Policy (December 27, 2021): Without Tutu and Mandela, Is South African Moral Exceptionalism Dead?

Africa Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Ongoing

Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022

Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: February 8, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)

Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup – delays possible)

Gambia Legislative and Local Elections: April 2022 (due)

Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (delays possible)

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Ekiti State: June 18, 2022

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Election in Osun State: July 16, 2022

Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)

Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)

Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022

Angola Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 2022

Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: September 2022

Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (due – delays possible)

Sao Tome and Principe Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)

Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2022

Equatorial Guinea Legislative and Local Elections: November 2022 (due)

Chad General Elections: By December 2022 (tentative, post-coup)

South Sudan General Elections: December 2022 (tentative)

Nigeria General Elections: February 18, 2023

Nigeria Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 2023 (due)

Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 2023

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023

Eswatini Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (due)

Gabon Presidential Election: August 2023 (due)

Mauritania Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due)

Gabon Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due)

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States: November 2023 (due)

Madagascar Presidential Election: November 2023 (due)

Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)

Togo Legislative Elections: December 2023 (due)

Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023

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