January 7, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Shantadurga Temple in Goa, India. Goa is among the states holding elections in 2022. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Nkodikal (CC BY 3.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the two biggest parties, PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress Party. Although there have been some concerns about Modi’s increasing authoritarianism, India remains an important partner in combatting China’s attempts to spread its political and economic influence around the world.
India’s next general elections are due by May 2024.
Rifat Fareed, Al Jazeera (January 6, 2022): Anxiety in Kashmir as India panel proposes to redraw election map: Controversial proposal to raise assembly seats in Jammu causes anger among Muslims, who form the majority in the disputed region.
Manoj C G, Indian Express (December 31, 2021): Explained: Elections in key states in year of reckoning for BJP and Opposition
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Ayumi Davis, Newsweek (January 6, 2022): South Korean Presidential Candidate Gets Bald Vote By Touting Hair-Loss Treatment Coverage
S. Nathan Park, Foreign Policy (January 6, 2022): Conservatives Are Slumping in South Korea’s Tumultuous Presidential Race: Civil war inside the right has liberals surging in the polls.
Danny Park and Ayumi Fujimoto, Forkast (January 5, 2022): Crypto is presidential election campaign issue for South Korea
Yosuke Onchi, Nikkei Asia (December 31, 2021): Disillusioned younger voters hold key to South Korea presidential race: Both leading candidates struggle to win over independents in tight campaign
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo.
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Reuters (January 4, 2022): Philippines’ Duterte says will never apologise for drug war deaths
Marielle Descalsota, South China Morning Post (January 2, 2022): Philippine election: why are overseas Filipinos such big fans of Bongbong Marcos Jnr?
Mong Palatino, The Diplomat (December 30, 2021): The Philippines in 2021: Duterte’s Flip-Flops and Women Holding the Line
Yen Nee Lee, CNBC (December 26, 2021): Philippine President Duterte’s China pivot hasn’t reduced tensions in the South China Sea
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls.
Tensions with China are rising as Australia’s federal government has cancelled several Belt and Road deals. More
Steve McMorran, AP (January 7, 2022): Some say politics at play in Djokovic detention in Australia
Gerard Henderson, The Australian (December 31, 2021): Election 2022: ‘Mood’ will decide between two paths to power
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Trea Lavery, Lowell Sun (January 7, 2022): Lowell senator files resolution in support of free and fair elections in Cambodia: Cambodian Lowellians testify in support of resolution
UN News (January 5, 2022): Cambodia: Arrests of strikers may be breach of human rights law
Luke Hunt, The Diplomat (January 4, 2021): Cambodia’s Hun Sen Moves Ahead on Shoring Up Son’s Leadership Prospects: The leader tipped his grandson to serve as prime minister in the 2030s.
Jon Emont, Wall Street Journal (December 29, 2021): In Southeast Asia, Politics Are Increasingly a Family Affair: Political dynasties are rising to power and broadening their reach in the Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Japan holds elections for half of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on July 25, 2022. These follow general elections that took placeon October 31, a bit earlier than the November deadline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, won another term in office, despite somewhat decreased approval ratings in recent months.
The general elections followed the LDP’s September 29 leadership contest. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga did not seek re-election. Foreign minister Fumio Kishida defeated vaccine czar Kono Taro in a runoff, as well as the hawkish former internal affairs minister Takaichi Sanae and former gender equality minister Noda Seiko.
Rhiannon Hoyle and Alastair Gale, Wall Street Journal (January 5, 2022): As China Tensions Smoulder, Japan and Australia Move to Sign Defense Treaty: Australia-Japan pact will allow troops to freely enter each other’s countries for exercises without having to negotiate terms each time
Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg (January 4, 2022): Japan’s Kishida Vows Tight Borders, Faster Boosters for Elderly
Thailand Bangkok Gubernatorial Election: Mid-2022 (proposed), followed by General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Thailand is due to hold general elections by March 23, 2023, but early elections are possible. In addition, various types of local elections are taking place at various times. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has indicated that the long-delayed Bangkok gubernatorial election will take place in mid-2022.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months.
John Reed, Financial Times (January 6, 2022): The skimpy crop-tops that are infuriating Thai authorities: Prosecutors crack down on activists sporting midriff-baring garments beloved by the king
Marwaan Macan-Makar, Nikkei Asia (December 30, 2021): Bangkok governor election gives Prayuth headache: PM yet to find a candidate for poll seen as voter gauge ahead of key 2022 vote
Taiwan Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan, a robust democracy, is due to hold local elections in November 2022.
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Sheryn Lee, East Asia Forum (January 7, 2022): Global and domestic challenges clash in Taiwan
Jacques deLisle, Foreign Policy Research Institute (January 6, 2022): A Tale of Two Elections: Lessons from the Very Different Trajectories of Democracy in Taiwan and Hong Kong in December 2021
Ryan Hass, Brookings Institute (December 27, 2021): Steadying Taiwan for a storm on the horizon
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
Jonathan Head, BBC (January 7, 2021): Myanmar coup: The doctors and nurses defying the military
Elaine Kurtenbach, AP (January 7, 2022): Anger as Cambodia’s Hun Sen meets Myanmar military leader
Olivia Enos, Forbes (December 28, 2021): Why The U.S. Should Hold The Burmese Military Accountable For Atrocities
The Irrawaddy (December 27, 2021): Desmond Tutu’s Thoughts on Myanmar’s Democracy Struggle From 2010
Malaysia, Early General Elections: To be called, following Melaka State Snap Elections: November 20, 2021 and Sarawak State Elections: December 18, 2021
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, is due to hold state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
William Case, East Asia Forum (January 7, 2022): UMNO strikes back after Malaysia’s year of political melee
Al Jazeera (December 28, 2021): ‘Where’s the help?’: Malaysia PM under fire after deadly floods
AFP (December 25, 2021): Malaysian Floods Death Toll Rises to 46
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand.
Seema Guha, Outlook India (December 28, 2021): Why ‘India Out’ Campaign Led By Pro-China Yameen Is Gaining Ground In Maldives: India-China compete for relevance in the strategically important Indian Ocean Island nation. The division will sharpen in the run-up to the Presidential elections in 2023.
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Bangladesh Partial Local Elections: January 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: By December 2023
Some of Bangladesh’s towns hold local elections in the coming months. Bangladesh last held general elections to the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) in December 2018 amid political violence and harassment of the opposition. The next polls are due in December 2022 or early 2023. The Awami League (AL) has been in power since 2009 and is becoming increasingly authoritarian.
On the geopolitical front, Bangladesh has risen in importance in recent years in the midst of high economic growth.
Andalou Agency (January 7, 2022): Bangladesh local elections turn deadly
Regional Analysis
Niha Dagia, The Diplomat (January 5, 2022): 2021 Was a Bad Year for Democracy in South Asia
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Tim Hamlett, Hong Kong Free Press (January 3, 2022): Hong Kong election: Rewriting history after the 2021 ‘patriots’ poll
Voice of America (January 3, 2022): Hong Kong Legislature Welcomes New Pro-China Members
AP (December 29, 2021): Hong Kong pro-democracy news site closes after raid, arrests
Zen Soo and Huizhong Wu, AP (December 29, 2021): How democracy was dismantled in Hong Kong in 2021
Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan, Jadyn Sham and Teele Rebane, CNN Business (December 29, 2021): Another Hong Kong pro-democracy news outlet shuts down after a police raid and arrests
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal (December 29, 2021): No One Is Safe in Hong Kong: Authorities extend their assault on anyone who dissents from the Communist Party line.
AP (December 24, 2021): Renowned Tiananmen massacre monument removed in Hong Kong
Solomon Islands General Elections: April 3, 2019
The Solomon Islands held elections on April 3, 2019. Manasseh Sogavare, who had previously served several tumultuous terms at different points, was elected prime minister again, ousting Rick Houenipwela, who himself had become prime minister when Sogavare was ousted in a no-confidence motion in 2017. Riots broke out after the elections. Subsequently, the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, a very controversial decision.
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal (December 29, 2021): Beijing Courts the Solomon Islands: Turning from the West, the Pacific state accepts Chinese police support.
Reuters (December 24, 2021): Solomon Islands says China to send police advisers after riots
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Nepal National Assembly Elections: January 26, 2022 (voting for 1/3 of upper house)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Nepal Provincial Elections: April or May 2022 (due)
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Malaysia Snap Elections: August 2022 or later (expected)
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia State Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: January 8, 2022
Last Updated: January 21, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 8, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Barbados will hold snap parliamentary elections on January 19, following a decision made in September 2021 to remove the British monarch as head of state and become a republic. The elections come one year early.
In the last elections, in 2018, the center-left Barbados Labor Party (BLP, knicknamed the “Bees”) won all 30 seats (and currently hold 29). Before that, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP, “Dems”) held power for 10 years. Following the 2018 elections, BLP leader Mia Mottley became Barbados’s first female prime minister. The DLP is seen as being to the left of the BLP, having been founded by a group that broke away in 1955 (the BLP was founded in 1938). However, politics in Barbados tends to be driven by personalities.
CMC (January 5, 2022): Barbados: More than 100 Candidates Nominated to Contest Jan. 19 Election
Emmanuel Joseph, Barbados Today (January 4, 2022): PM, Atherley say outcome of elections will determine how Barbados moves forward
DW (December 28, 2021): Barbados calls snap election after becoming republic
Bahamas, Local Elections on Grand Bahama: January 27, 2022
The Bahamas will hold local elections on Grand Bahama, the country’s third-largest island, on January 27. The Bahamas’ most recent elections were snap elections on September 16, eight months early.
The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power. In these elections, PLP ousted FNM.
Denise Maycock, The Tribune (January 5, 2022): Grand Bahama Set For Local Govt Elections On January 27
St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022
Franceinfo (January 3, 2022): Territorial elections: St. Martin and St. Barts voters called to the polls March 20 and 27
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots recently. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Sergio Guzmán and Colombia Risk Analysis (January 6, 2022): Six Challenges Facing Colombia in 2022
George Lei and Andrea Jaramillo, Bloomberg (January 4, 2022): Colombian Peso Has Record Low in Sight as Election Risks Weigh
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Mid-2022
Chile holds a referendum on a new constitution in 2022. This follows last year’s presidential and legislative elections. Far-left socialist former student leader Gabriel Boric defeated Jose Antonio Kast, a far-right legislator, in the runoff. Although results of the July 18 presidential primaries seemed to indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation, the center-right candidate from incumbent president Sebastián Pińera’s coalition did not even make the runoff. However, the legislative elections were a bit more complicated. Piñera’s Chile Podemos Más coalition will have the most seats in the Senate, and the Chamber of Deputies is split nearly evenly between right and left-leaning members. These results will potentially constrain Boric’s ability to pursue a far-left agenda. All newly-elected officials take office in March 2022.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues, and a referendum on the final draft will take place in late 2022.
Craig Mellow, Barrons (January 7, 2022): A Leftist Firebrand Is Taking Power in Chile. It’s a Red Flag for the EV Revolution.
John Bartlett, New York Times (January 6, 2022): Mining of Lithium, Key to the Climate Fight, Faces New Scrutiny in Chile: Politicians have called for a pause in new mining contracts for lithium, which is in high demand for electric car batteries but is at the heart of a debate in Chile over mines, water rights and inequality.
Matthew Malinowski and Valentina Fuentes (January 5, 2022): Chile Assembly That’s Rewriting Constitution Taps New Leadership
Anders Beal, Global Americans (January 4, 2022): Social Democracy in Chile and Latin America’s New Millennial Left
Reuters (January 4, 2022): 10,000 bees join protest in Chile, 7 police officers stung
NPR (January 2, 2022): What Chile’s new president could mean for the country’s future
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (January 7, 2022): Leftists may win in Brazil, Colombia, but it’s unlikely a ‘pink tide’ will wash over the region
Oliver Stuenkel, Americas Quarterly (January 6, 2022): All Eyes on Brazil’s Military as Election Approaches
Leandro Manzoni, investing.com (January 6, 2022): Brazil’s 2022 Presidential Elections: What Investors Need to Know
Americas Quarterly (January 5, 2022): Meet the Candidates: Brazil
Marcos Moreno and Jack Guy, CNN (January 4, 2022): Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro hospitalized with intestinal obstruction
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed
Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Global Americans (January 7, 2022): Haiti’s Prime Minister Under Attack
Jim Wyss, Bloomberg (January 6, 2022): Haitian Groups to Meet in Louisiana to Seek Deal on Elections
Matt Rivers, Jamie Crawford, Florencia Trucco and Mitchell McCluskey, CNN (January 5, 2022): US charges Colombian man with conspiracy to kill Haiti’s President
Monique Beals, The Hill (January 3, 2022): Haitian prime minister flees northern city after shootout between security, armed group
Past Americas Elections
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
Deisy Buitrago and Vivian Sequera, Reuters (January 8, 2022): Cradle of Venezuelan ruling party prepares for election re-run
Gideon Long, Financial Times (January 7, 2022): Chávez’s home state in Venezuela becomes a political battleground: Election rerun puts ‘Chavistas’ on the defence in the symbolically important state of Barinas
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Confidencial (January 8, 2022): Opposition organizations in exile declare Ortega’s new term “illegitimate”
Reuters (January 7, 2022): Record number of Nicaraguans sought asylum in Costa Rica in 2021
The Guardian/AP (December 31, 2021): China opens embassy in Nicaragua for first time since 1990 after Taiwan ties cut: Nicaragua trumpets ‘ideological affinity’ with Beijing and seizes Taipei’s former embassy and diplomatic offices
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Bahamas, Local Elections in Grand Bahama: January 27, 2022
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022
Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)
Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022
Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)
Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidenital and Legislative Elections: April 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: January 7, 2022
Last Updated: January 20, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 7, 2022
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the two biggest parties, PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress Party. Although there have been some concerns about Modi’s increasing authoritarianism, India remains an important partner in combatting China’s attempts to spread its political and economic influence around the world.
India’s next general elections are due by May 2024.
Rifat Fareed, Al Jazeera (January 6, 2022): Anxiety in Kashmir as India panel proposes to redraw election map: Controversial proposal to raise assembly seats in Jammu causes anger among Muslims, who form the majority in the disputed region.
Manoj C G, Indian Express (December 31, 2021): Explained: Elections in key states in year of reckoning for BJP and Opposition
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
Ayumi Davis, Newsweek (January 6, 2022): South Korean Presidential Candidate Gets Bald Vote By Touting Hair-Loss Treatment Coverage
S. Nathan Park, Foreign Policy (January 6, 2022): Conservatives Are Slumping in South Korea’s Tumultuous Presidential Race: Civil war inside the right has liberals surging in the polls.
Danny Park and Ayumi Fujimoto, Forkast (January 5, 2022): Crypto is presidential election campaign issue for South Korea
Yosuke Onchi, Nikkei Asia (December 31, 2021): Disillusioned younger voters hold key to South Korea presidential race: Both leading candidates struggle to win over independents in tight campaign
Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022
Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.
Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo.
While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.
Reuters (January 4, 2022): Philippines’ Duterte says will never apologise for drug war deaths
Marielle Descalsota, South China Morning Post (January 2, 2022): Philippine election: why are overseas Filipinos such big fans of Bongbong Marcos Jnr?
Mong Palatino, The Diplomat (December 30, 2021): The Philippines in 2021: Duterte’s Flip-Flops and Women Holding the Line
Yen Nee Lee, CNBC (December 26, 2021): Philippine President Duterte’s China pivot hasn’t reduced tensions in the South China Sea
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls.
Tensions with China are rising as Australia’s federal government has cancelled several Belt and Road deals. More
Steve McMorran, AP (January 7, 2022): Some say politics at play in Djokovic detention in Australia
Gerard Henderson, The Australian (December 31, 2021): Election 2022: ‘Mood’ will decide between two paths to power
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Trea Lavery, Lowell Sun (January 7, 2022): Lowell senator files resolution in support of free and fair elections in Cambodia: Cambodian Lowellians testify in support of resolution
UN News (January 5, 2022): Cambodia: Arrests of strikers may be breach of human rights law
Luke Hunt, The Diplomat (January 4, 2021): Cambodia’s Hun Sen Moves Ahead on Shoring Up Son’s Leadership Prospects: The leader tipped his grandson to serve as prime minister in the 2030s.
Jon Emont, Wall Street Journal (December 29, 2021): In Southeast Asia, Politics Are Increasingly a Family Affair: Political dynasties are rising to power and broadening their reach in the Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Japan holds elections for half of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on July 25, 2022. These follow general elections that took placeon October 31, a bit earlier than the November deadline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, won another term in office, despite somewhat decreased approval ratings in recent months.
The general elections followed the LDP’s September 29 leadership contest. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga did not seek re-election. Foreign minister Fumio Kishida defeated vaccine czar Kono Taro in a runoff, as well as the hawkish former internal affairs minister Takaichi Sanae and former gender equality minister Noda Seiko.
Rhiannon Hoyle and Alastair Gale, Wall Street Journal (January 5, 2022): As China Tensions Smoulder, Japan and Australia Move to Sign Defense Treaty: Australia-Japan pact will allow troops to freely enter each other’s countries for exercises without having to negotiate terms each time
Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg (January 4, 2022): Japan’s Kishida Vows Tight Borders, Faster Boosters for Elderly
Thailand Bangkok Gubernatorial Election: Mid-2022 (proposed), followed by General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Thailand is due to hold general elections by March 23, 2023, but early elections are possible. In addition, various types of local elections are taking place at various times. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has indicated that the long-delayed Bangkok gubernatorial election will take place in mid-2022.
These elections are taking place in the context of unprecedented protests against the monarchy, and calls for unprecedented types of reforms. These protests have been going on for months.
John Reed, Financial Times (January 6, 2022): The skimpy crop-tops that are infuriating Thai authorities: Prosecutors crack down on activists sporting midriff-baring garments beloved by the king
Marwaan Macan-Makar, Nikkei Asia (December 30, 2021): Bangkok governor election gives Prayuth headache: PM yet to find a candidate for poll seen as voter gauge ahead of key 2022 vote
Taiwan Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan, a robust democracy, is due to hold local elections in November 2022.
The country held presidential and legislative elections in January 2020. President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the legislative elections and Tsai herself was re-elected president. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate.
Sheryn Lee, East Asia Forum (January 7, 2022): Global and domestic challenges clash in Taiwan
Jacques deLisle, Foreign Policy Research Institute (January 6, 2022): A Tale of Two Elections: Lessons from the Very Different Trajectories of Democracy in Taiwan and Hong Kong in December 2021
Ryan Hass, Brookings Institute (December 27, 2021): Steadying Taiwan for a storm on the horizon
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections by 2023.
Jonathan Head, BBC (January 7, 2021): Myanmar coup: The doctors and nurses defying the military
Elaine Kurtenbach, AP (January 7, 2022): Anger as Cambodia’s Hun Sen meets Myanmar military leader
Olivia Enos, Forbes (December 28, 2021): Why The U.S. Should Hold The Burmese Military Accountable For Atrocities
The Irrawaddy (December 27, 2021): Desmond Tutu’s Thoughts on Myanmar’s Democracy Struggle From 2010
Malaysia, Early General Elections: To be called, following Melaka State Snap Elections: November 20, 2021 and Sarawak State Elections: December 18, 2021
Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, is due to hold state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.
The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More
William Case, East Asia Forum (January 7, 2022): UMNO strikes back after Malaysia’s year of political melee
Al Jazeera (December 28, 2021): ‘Where’s the help?’: Malaysia PM under fire after deadly floods
AFP (December 25, 2021): Malaysian Floods Death Toll Rises to 46
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand.
Seema Guha, Outlook India (December 28, 2021): Why ‘India Out’ Campaign Led By Pro-China Yameen Is Gaining Ground In Maldives: India-China compete for relevance in the strategically important Indian Ocean Island nation. The division will sharpen in the run-up to the Presidential elections in 2023.
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Bangladesh Partial Local Elections: January 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: By December 2023
Some of Bangladesh’s towns hold local elections in the coming months. Bangladesh last held general elections to the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) in December 2018 amid political violence and harassment of the opposition. The next polls are due in December 2022 or early 2023. The Awami League (AL) has been in power since 2009 and is becoming increasingly authoritarian.
On the geopolitical front, Bangladesh has risen in importance in recent years in the midst of high economic growth.
Andalou Agency (January 7, 2022): Bangladesh local elections turn deadly
Regional Analysis
Niha Dagia, The Diplomat (January 5, 2022): 2021 Was a Bad Year for Democracy in South Asia
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021
Hong Kong is holding elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Tim Hamlett, Hong Kong Free Press (January 3, 2022): Hong Kong election: Rewriting history after the 2021 ‘patriots’ poll
Voice of America (January 3, 2022): Hong Kong Legislature Welcomes New Pro-China Members
AP (December 29, 2021): Hong Kong pro-democracy news site closes after raid, arrests
Zen Soo and Huizhong Wu, AP (December 29, 2021): How democracy was dismantled in Hong Kong in 2021
Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan, Jadyn Sham and Teele Rebane, CNN Business (December 29, 2021): Another Hong Kong pro-democracy news outlet shuts down after a police raid and arrests
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal (December 29, 2021): No One Is Safe in Hong Kong: Authorities extend their assault on anyone who dissents from the Communist Party line.
AP (December 24, 2021): Renowned Tiananmen massacre monument removed in Hong Kong
Solomon Islands General Elections: April 3, 2019
The Solomon Islands held elections on April 3, 2019. Manasseh Sogavare, who had previously served several tumultuous terms at different points, was elected prime minister again, ousting Rick Houenipwela, who himself had become prime minister when Sogavare was ousted in a no-confidence motion in 2017. Riots broke out after the elections. Subsequently, the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, a very controversial decision.
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal (December 29, 2021): Beijing Courts the Solomon Islands: Turning from the West, the Pacific state accepts Chinese police support.
Reuters (December 24, 2021): Solomon Islands says China to send police advisers after riots
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Nepal National Assembly Elections: January 26, 2022 (voting for 1/3 of upper house)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022
Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Nepal Provincial Elections: April or May 2022 (due)
Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)
Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)
Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)
Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022
Malaysia Snap Elections: August 2022 or later (expected)
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Taiwan Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)
Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022
Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023
Malaysia State Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)
Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)
New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
January 2022 Election Outlook
Last Updated: February 8, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
Bangladesh Partial Local Elections: January 5, 2022
Some of Bangladesh’s towns hold local elections in the coming months. Bangladesh last held general elections to the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) in December 2018 amid political violence and harassment of the opposition. The next polls are due in December 2022 or early 2023. The Awami League (AL) has been in power since 2009 and is becoming increasingly authoritarian.
On the geopolitical front, Bangladesh has risen in importance in recent years in the midst of high economic growth.
Serbia Constitutional Referendum: January 16, 2022
Serbia holds a constitutional referendum on matters related to the judiciary on January 16, 2022, followed by early presidential and parliamentary elections in April.
The country held held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Amid the tension, Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union (EU) with maintaining good relations with Russia. The constitutional referendum is in direct response to issues raised by the EU, and the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe (which advises on constitutional law and democracy) has said it supports the proposed changes. In general, pro-European Serbians support the referendum, but some members of Vucic’s SNS (which is a big-tent party that has numerous factions) are campaigning against it.
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Barbados will hold snap parliamentary elections on January 19, following a decision made in September 2021 to remove the British monarch as head of state and become a republic. The elections come one year early.
In the last elections, in 2018, the center-left Barbados Labor Party (BLP, knicknamed the “Bees”) won all 30 seats (and currently hold 29). Before that, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP, “Dems”) held power for 10 years. The DLP is seen as being to the left of the BLP, having been founded by a group that broke away in 1955 (the BLP was founded in 1938). However, politics in Barbados tends to be driven by personalities.
Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022
Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey, is holding snap elections on January 22 following the resignation of the government. In last year’s presidential election, Ankara-backed nationalist Ersin Tatar won, exacerbating tensions on the island. The elections are taking place amid widespread protests and a tanking economy.
Cyprus is divided between the mostly Greek-speaking south and the Turkish-speaking north, and both Greece and Turkey play in the country’s politics.
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 31, 2022. After that, legislative elections are due in July 2022.
Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.
Most of the current mayors are members of Sall’s Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition, although not the mayor of the capital, Dakar. As Danielle Resnick of the Brookings Institution notes, “The city is fiercely contested because it houses a quarter of the country’s population, produces 55 percent of national GDP, and generates 80 percent of the country’s employment opportunities.” The opposition has a good chance of holding Dakar in these elections.
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production.
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
On January 23, 2022, Finland will hold elections to newly-created county councils. These councils will assume responsibility for providing healthcare (the responsibility previously fell to municipal councils).
Following the 2019 parliamentary elections, a left-leaning coalition came into government nationally. The conservative National Coalition Party won the most seats in the local elections, with the Social Democrats placing second. The far-right Finns Party made gains in its vote share.
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Begins January 24, 2022
Italy’s parliament will begin the process of choosing a president on January 24. Although Italy’s president does not have much formal executive power, current president Sergio Mattarella, who is not seeking another term, has become increasingly powerful as a mediator in Italy’s recent series of political crises.
Current prime minister Mario Draghi has indicated interest in the role, which could trigger snap elections if the current broad coalition of right and left-wing parties does not hold together. Italy is currently not due for parliamentary elections until 2023. Some fear another bout of instability if Draghi leaves his current role – Draghi’s accession to the role of prime minister ended the last round of political chaos.
In addition, none other than former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi – currently age 85 – is also angling for the role in a campaign dubbed “Operation Squirrel.” Numerous other political figures could be put forward for nomination.
Nepal National Assembly Elections: January 26, 2022 (voting for 1/3 of upper house)
Nepal holds elections for a third of the National Assembly, the upper house of the bicameral parliament, on January 26, 2022.
Snap elections to the lower house – which selects the government – are also possible later this year. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but then those elections were cancelled. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.
Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a locus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. The results of the elections could impact Nepal’s geopolitical position.
Bahamas, Local Elections on Grand Bahama: January 27, 2022
The Bahamas will hold local elections on Grand Bahama, the country’s third-largest island, on January 27. The Bahamas’ most recent elections were snap elections on September 16, eight months early.
The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power. In these elections, PLP ousted FNM.
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: January 6, 2022
Last Updated: January 19, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
January 6, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: February 2022 (proposed)
Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has announced plans to hold a constitutional referendum in February 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). Belarus’s elections and political processes are neither free nor fair.
The country las held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests and political defiance continue. More
Felix Krawatzek and Gwendolyn Sasse (January 6, 2022): The E.U. continues to sanction Belarus. Some Belarusians approve.
RFE/RL (December 30, 2021): Russia, Belarus Announce Plans For More Joint Military Drills
Meduza (December 29, 2021): To 2035 and beyond: Belarus unveils draft constitutional amendments, plans referendum for February 2022
Euronews/AP (December 28, 2021): Belarus unveils constitutional changes to extend Lukashenko’s rule
Sergei Kuznetsov, Politico (December 22, 2021): Lukashenko has a new scheme to hang on to power in Belarus: He’s planning a referendum to stay in control; the opposition vows to ‘overthrow’ that idea.
DW (December 17, 2021): Charlemagne Prize: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya among three winners from Belarus
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 2023 and Presidential Election: By March 2024
Ukraine holds parliamentary elections in 2023 and a presidential election in 2024. In the last presidential vote, in 2019, Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko running on an anti-establishment platform. However, since then, the country’s traditional pro-Europe and pro-Moscow political forces have regained ground.
Russia’s military aggression, which began in 2014, continues, and the threat of further invasion looms large.
Lee Reaney, Kyiv Post (January 5, 2022): Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: Ukrainian Election Reform in 2022
Kori Schake, The Atlantic (December 29, 2021): Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine Is Backfiring: Putin’s military moves are rallying Ukrainians and unifying NATO.
Luke Harding and Andrew Roth, The Guardian (December 20, 2021): Standing up to Putin: how Russian threat has toughened up Ukraine’s Zelenskiy: Actor turned president has undergone profound political transformation in the face of Russian aggression
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova, De Facto Presidential Election in Transnistria: December 12, 2021
Russia-backed breakaway authorities in Moldova’s Transnistria region held a so-called presidential election on December 12, 2021. Current leader Vadim Krasnoselsky won the contest. Transnistria declared independence in 1990 and Moldova subsequently lost control of the region, and there was a war in 1992.
Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.
Russia has broadly stepped up its harassment of Moldova following the election of pro-Europe Maia Sandu to the presidency in 2020 and the victory of pro-Europe political parties in the July 2021 parliamentary elections. Moldova next holds local elections in October 2023, presidential elections in 2024, and parliamentary elections in 2025.
RFE/RL (December 18, 2021): Moldova Calls Russian Envoy’s Presence At Transdniester Inauguration ‘Unfriendly Action’
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Aigerim Turgunbaeva, Eurasianet (December 22, 2021): Kyrgyzstan: China-born MP’s seat in the balance amid scandal, confusion: Orgalcha’s company has backed the president, leading some to suspect he is bending the rules to favor her.
Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (December 21, 2021): Aijan Sharshenova on What’s Next for Kyrgyz Politics: What’s next for Kyrgyz politics now that Sadyr Japarov has the government he wanted?
RFE/RL (December 17, 2021): Time’s Up: Kyrgyzstan’s Supreme Court Rejects Monitor’s Electoral Fraud Complaint
Georgia Local Elections: October 2 and 30, 2021
Georgia held local elections on October 2 and 30, 2021 in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of former president Mikheil Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote. Runoffs will take place on October 30, including for the important role of mayor of Tbilisi, which the ruling Georgian Dream party failed to win in the first round. Ultimately, Georgian Dream did win the second round amid criticism from the opposition.
A recent uptick in violence against the LGBT community and journalists, perpetrated by far-right and pro-Kremlin forces, has fueled the wider debate about where Georgia is going, both culturally and geopolitically. More
RFE/RL (December 28, 2021): Georgian Parliament Plans Vote To Eliminate Human Rights Watchdog
Paige Aarhus, World Politics Review (December 21, 2021): Saakashvili’s Grand Return to Georgia May Have Backfired
AFP (December 21, 2021): Georgians vow mass hunger-strike after reports ex-leader ‘tortured’
Kazakhstan Legislative Elections: January 10, 2021
Kazakhstan held legislative elections for January 10, 2021. The country’s elections take place in the context of an authoritarian system in which critics of the government face harassment and arrest. As such, no genuine opposition has representation in the legislature.
A series of protests that began in January 2022 is currently rocking the country. Russia has sent personnel to intervene. More
MacKenzie Sigalos, CNBC (January 6, 2022): Kazakhstan’s deadly protests hit bitcoin, as the world’s second-biggest mining hub shuts down
Shaun Walker, The Guardian (January 7, 2022): Putin taking a risk in Kazakhstan and may hope for reward
Reuters (January 4, 2022): Public buildings stormed as Kazakhstan government’s resignation fails to quell protests: In a rare show of dissent, protests reached the authoritarian country’s biggest city, Almaty, after officials lifted price caps on liquefied petroleum gas
Valerie Hopkins, New York Times (January 4, 2022): Kazakhstan Declares State of Emergency as Protests Over Fuel Prices Spread
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Belarus Constitutional Referendum: By February 2022 (proposed)
Russia Regional Elections (some regions): September 2022 (due)
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: By October 29, 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: December 29, 2021
Last Updated: January 19, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
December 29, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Serbian Academy of Science and Arts Building in Belgrade. Serbia holds a constitutional referendum followed by general elections this year. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Λατίνος
Upcoming Europe Elections
Serbia Constitutional Referendum: January 16, 2022, followed by Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Ivana Stradner, Foreign Affairs (December 27, 2021): Russia Is Playing With Fire in the Balkans: How Putin’s Power Play Threatens Europe
Marton Dunai and Neil Hume, Financial Times (December 27, 2021): Rio Tinto’s lithium mine plan electrifies Serbia
Milenko Vasovic, Balkan Insight (December 23, 2021): Vucic’s New Pose as Serbia’s ‘Protector’ Shouldn’t Fool Anyone
Svetla Miteva, Euractiv (December 20, 2021): Vucic backs down on Rio Tinto project under pressure from civil society
Aleksandar Ivković, European Western Balkans (December 20, 2021): [EWB Interview] Kmezić: Outcome of the protests showed that Vučić’s rule is not unlimited
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
On January 23, 2022, Finland will hold elections to newly-created county councils. These councils will assume responsibility for providing healthcare (the responsibility previously fell to municipal councils).
Following the 2019 parliamentary elections, a left-leaning coalition came into government nationally. The conservative National Coalition Party won the most seats in the local elections, with the Social Democrats placing second. The far-right Finns Party made gains in its vote share. More
Helsinki Times (December 29, 2021): National Coalition in lead ahead of first county elections in Finland
YLE News (December 19, 2021): Poll: Less than half plan to vote in county elections: A new survey suggests that the voting rate in next month’s healthcare election may struggle to reach 40 percent.
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Begins January 24, 2022
Giselda Vagnoni and Crispian Balmer, Reuters (December 22, 2021): Italy’s Draghi signals he’s willing to become president
The Local (December 22, 2021): EXPLAINED: Who could be elected as Italy’s next president?
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
André Campos, LUSA (December 17, 2021): Scholz praises Portugal’s Costa, expresses ‘absolute confidence’ in re-election
Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Castile and León: February 13, 2022
Spain’s Castile and León region will hold early elections to the regional legislature on February 13, 2022.
Beyza Binnur Donmez, Andalou Agency (December 20, 2021): Spain’s Castile and Leon to hold early regional elections on Feb. 13: Alfonso Fernandez Manueco dissolves 81-seat unicameral legislature Cortes of Castile and Leon
Germany Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022, followed by Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022, and Lower Saxony State Elections: October 8, 2022
Germany holds several sets of state elections in 2022, following the “Superwahljahr” (Super Election Year) of 2021, which saw the defeat of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a new “traffic light coalition” government consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens.
Geir Moulson, AP (December 17, 2021): Germany: Merkel’s party chooses conservative Merz as leader
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Hungary is holding parliamentary elections on April 3, 2022. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.
A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.
Reuters (December 21, 2021): Hungary to defy EU court ruling over migration policy, Orban says
AFP (December 19, 2021): Hungary anti-LGBTQ blitz meets backlash as election looms
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
Meanwhile, while many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.
As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Republicans have selected Valérie Pécresse, president of the regional council of Île-de-France. The Socialists chose Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo as their candidate.
Constant Méheut and Léontine Gallois, New York Times (December 29, 2021): A Movement to Unify the French Left Might Be Its Last Chance for the Elections
Tara Patel, Bloomberg (December 18, 2021): Macron Likely to Face Pecresse in French Runoff, Poll Shows
Angelique Chrisafis, The Guardian (December 17, 2021): Ex-minister Taubira considers French election run as left’s ‘unity candidate’: Christiane Taubira, who would be first president to be Black or female, has been called ‘moral conscience of the left’
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) holds general elections on October 2, 2022. The 2020 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. More
M. Apelblat, Brussels Times (December 18, 2021): EU and the constitutional crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Andy Heil, RFE/RL (December 16, 2021): Bosnia On The Brink Again: Is 2022 Going To Be The Year Everything Falls Apart?
Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Slovakia is due to hold local elections in November 2022. In the last parliamentary elections in February 2020, a coalition of then-opposition parties running on an anti-corruption platform defeated the then-incumbent populists. However, a subsequent scandal over the Russian Sputnik COVID vaccine has engulfed the government, threatening its collapse. More
Reuters (December 17, 2021): Ex-PM Fico faces charges for breaking Slovakia’s COVID rules
Poland Parliamentary Elections: Fall 2023 (snap elections possible)
Poland is due to hold parliamentary elections in fall 2023, but snap elections are possible if the three-party government headed by the conservative Law and Justice does not hold together.
James Shotter, Financial Times (December 24, 2021): Polish opposition politician targeted by NSO spyware, cyber expert says: Krzysztof Brejza’s mobile phone was hacked 33 times ahead of 2019 election, claims Citizen Lab
Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Bulgaria a presidential election on November 14 along with a third set of parliamentary elections since no government was formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4). In Bulgaria’s parliamentary system, the prime minister holds executive power, while the president is largely ceremonial.
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused.
This time around, a new party called We Continue the Change won the most seats and is currently in the process of trying to form a government. It frequently touts the Harvard degrees of its two leaders. More
Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (December 16, 2021): Cracks Over Policy Cast Shadow over Bulgaria’s New Govt
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia held local elections on October 17, 2021 which delivered a landslide victory for the opposition VMRO-DPMNE. These follow par liamentary elections in July 2020. Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up).
The country’s politics are fragmented and fractious. The 2020 elections were extremely close, but ultimately PM Zoran Zaev and his Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) were able to once again form a government with the backing of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the main ethnic Albanian party (ethnic Albanians make up about a quarter of the population). SDSM also controlled most of the municipalities heading into the local elections, having beaten the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE in a majority of municipalities and ousting the VMRO-DMPNE mayor of Skopje.
RFE/RL (December 29, 2021): North Macedonia’s President Asks Kovachevski To Form New Government
RFE/RL (December 22, 2021): North Macedonia’s Prime Minister Submits His Resignation To Parliament
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Serbia Constitutional Referendum: January 16, 2022
Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: January 24, 2022
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Netherlands Local Elections: March 16, 2022
Germany, Saarland State Elections: March 27, 2022
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, plus Belgrade City Assembly Elections: April 3, 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: April 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
United Kingdom Local Elections: May 5, 2022
Germany, Schleswig-Holstein State Elections: May 8, 2022
Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia State Elections: May 15, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Germany, Lower Saxony State Elections: October 9, 2022
Czech Republic Local and Partial Senate Election: October 2022
Spain, Andalusia Regional Elections: Between June and October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential and Local Elections: October/November 2022 (due)
Slovakia Local Elections: November 2022 (due)
Czech Republic Presidential Election: By January 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 2023 (due)
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 2023 (due)
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 2023 (due)
Austria, Tyrol State Elections: February 2023 (due)
Estonia General Elections: By March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 2023 (due)
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland Parliamentary Elections: By April 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 2023 (due)
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections: May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election: May 2023 (due)
Italy General Elections: By June 1, 2023
Denmark General Elections: By June 4, 2023
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 6, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: By October 2023
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: By November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: By December 10, 2023 (snap elections possible)
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