December 15, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Vrijthof square in Maastricht, Netherlands. Nine months after elections, the Netherlands now officially has a government, made up of the same parties as the old government. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Euku (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Begins January 4, 2022
Hannah Roberts, Politico (December 14, 2021): Italy’s succession dilemma: It only wants Mario Draghi: Draghi is the only consensus option for both prime minister and president — two mutually exclusive jobs.
Angelo Amante, Reuters (December 9, 2021): Mission impossible? Berlusconi launches bid for Italian presidency
Portugal Snap Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
Reuters (December 5, 2021): Portuguese parliament dissolved ahead of Jan 30 election
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Austria is due to hold a presidential election in April 2022, although in Austria’s parliamentary system, the role is largely ceremonial. Recently, the resignation of center-right chancellor Sebastian Kurz has shaken politics.
AFP (December 3, 2021): Austria names new chancellor after Kurz’s shock resignation
Steven Erlanger, New York Times (December 2, 2021): Double Resignation Shakes Austrian Politics in Aftermath of Scandal: Sebastian Kurz, a former chancellor under investigation for influence-buying and corruption, said he was quitting politics. Within hours, his successor and ally also resigned, after only two months on the job.
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.
A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.
Reuters (December 13, 2021): Hungary PM Orban unexpectedly delays deal to buy Budapest Airport
Lili Bayer, Politico (December 9, 2021): Biden sees if a snub will get Orbán’s attention: Not all of the Hungarian leader’s critics are convinced leaving Hungary out of a democracy summit is an effective punishment.
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: By April 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Dimitar Bechev, Carnegie Europe (December 14, 2021): Serbia: A Testament to People Power
Ivana Saric, Axios (December 13, 2021): Environmental protests rock Serbia
Nevena Bogdanovic and Andy Heil, RFE/RL (December 1, 2021): ‘Like Someone Cutting Off Your Arms And Legs’: Rio Tinto’s Lithium Mine Sparks Anger In Serbia
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
Meanwhile, while many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.
As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Les Républicans are holding a congress to select their candidate. The Socialists have already held their primary, which was won by Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo.
Marc Perelman, France24 (December 15, 2021 – video): Macron steps into campaign mode as conservative rival Pécresse climbs in polls
Andrew Glencross, Washington Post (December 13, 2021): People wrote off France’s center right. But Valérie Pécresse’s presidential run may be another story.
Rym Momtaz, Politico (December 9, 2021): French election permeates Macron’s EU presidency priorities: French leader’s EU wish list echoed 2022 campaign themes.
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Sweden’s next elections are not due until September 2022, but in June 2021, the left-leaning coalition led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven fell in a no-confidence vote. Lofven was re-elected PM, but could fall in yet another no-confidence vote if his government cannot pass a budget. In August, Lofven suddenly announced his resignation, effective in November. Magdalena Andersson, currently the finance minister, looks likely to succeed him and become Sweden’s first female prime minister.
Maria Oskarson, IPS Journal (December 13, 2021): Sweden’s Social Democrats turn left
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2022 (due)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is due to hold general elections in October 2020. The 202 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. More
DW (December 11, 2021): Bosnia: Serbs vote to leave key institutions in secession move
Janine Di Giovanni, Vanity Fair (December 9, 2021): Bosnia Redux: Are the Balkans Headed for Another War?
Gorana Grgić, War on the Rocks (December 3, 2021): Why the West Won’t Do More in the Balkans
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023
Greece is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2023. The last elections – snap polls that took place in July 2019 – saw the defeat of left-wing PM Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party (which had been governing in a strange coalition with the far-right Independent Greeks party), following heavy Syriza losses during local and European Parliament elections earlier that year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the parliamentary polls and formed a government on its own, without the need for coalition partners.
Until 2015, Greece’s two main parties had been New Democracy and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK). Currently, PASOK is the third-biggest party in parliament, behind New Democracy and Syriza.
Demetris Nellas, AP (December 12, 2021): EU lawmaker Androulakis elected Greek socialist leader
Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Bulgaria a presidential election on November 14 along with a third set of parliamentary elections since no government was formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4). In Bulgaria’s parliamentary system, the prime minister holds executive power, while the president is largely ceremonial.
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused.
This time around, a new party called We Continue the Change won the most seats and is currently in the process of trying to form a government. It frequently touts the Harvard degrees of its two leaders. More
Tsvetelia Tsolova, Reuters (December 13, 2021): Harvard-educated Petkov elected as Bulgaria’s prime minister
Diana Simeonava, AFP (December 11, 2021): Bulgaria’s PM-designate announces graft-fighting govt
Walter Mayr, Spiegel (December 6, 2021): “We Will Be Merciless in Applying the Law”: With his promise to ruthlessly fight corruption, Harvard graduate Kiril Petkov recently enjoyed an upset victory in the election in Bulgaria. In an interview, he explains how he hopes to succeed in reinventing his country, which has long had a reputation for corruption.
RFE/RL (December 3, 2021): Bulgaria’s New Fragmented Parliament Convenes Ahead Of Coalition Talks
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia held local elections on October 17, 2021 which delivered a landslide victory for the opposition VMRO-DPMNE. These follow par liamentary elections in July 2020. Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up).
The country’s politics are fragmented and fractious. The 2020 elections were extremely close, but ultimately PM Zoran Zaev and his Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) were able to once again form a government with the backing of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the main ethnic Albanian party (ethnic Albanians make up about a quarter of the population). SDSM also controlled most of the municipalities heading into the local elections, having beaten the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE in a majority of municipalities and ousting the VMRO-DMPNE mayor of Skopje.
Zeljko Trkanjec, Euractiv (December 14, 2021): Draft conclusions foresee start of accession talks for North Macedonia
Nektaria Stamouli, Politico (December 13, 2021): Dimitar Kovachevski on course to become North Macedonia’s new prime minister
Sinisa Jakov Marusic, Balkan Insight (December 6, 2021): North Macedonia Govt Solidifies Majority, Adding New Coalition Partner
Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (December 3, 2021): Bulgaria Returns to ‘History’ in Veto Talks with North Macedonia
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic held parliamentary elections October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. Ultimately, an opposition coalition of the center-right and the center-left Pirates narrowly defeated Babis and are expected to form the next government. More
Aneta Zachová, Euractiv (December 14, 2021): New Czech PM flexes muscles in first clash with president
AP (December 13, 2021): Czech president to swear in new government on Friday
Robert Tait, The Guardian (December 10, 2021): Czech president rejects nominee for foreign minister over ‘low qualifications’
Expats.cz (December 13, 2021): New Czech govt. will not seek extension of the state of emergency
Natalie Liu, Voice of America (December 10, 2021): Communism: Down and Out in the Czech Republic
Milana Nikolova, Emerging Europe (December 2, 2021): The decline and fall of Central and Eastern Europe’s communist successor parties
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany held several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), headed by Olaf Scholz, placed first, with 25.7 percent of the vote. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian partner Christian Social Union (CSU), suffered a historic defeat in these elections, placing second with 24.1 percent of the vote, possibly due to the personal unpopularity of its standard-bearer, Armin Laschet, who made a series of gaffes during the campaign.
A big story during the election was the rise of the Greens, who even topped opinion polls at various points, but ultimately placed third. They portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, choosing pragmatist Annalena Baerbock as their standard-bearer. Finally, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) placed fourth, with 11 percent of the vote, after five years of having no seats in the Bundestag (since FDP failed to meet the 5 percent threshold in the 2017 elections).
The next government will be a “traffic light coalition” consisting of SPD, plus FDP and the Greens, with SPD’s Olaf Scholz becoming chancellor, Baerbock foreign minister, and FDP’s Christian Lindner finance minister.
Geir Moulson, AP (December 8, 2021): Scholz replaces Merkel as German chancellor, opening new era
Netherlands Parliamentary Elections: March 17, 2021
Netherlands held parliamentary elections on March 17, 2020. Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right VVD once again won the most seats, but coalition negotiations continued for nearly six months after the elections. The parties finally announced that they would probably renew the four-party coalition, and remain in government. More
Thomas Erdbrink, New York Times (December 15, 2021): After Months, a ‘New’ Dutch Coalition With the Same Leader and Parties
DW (December 13, 2021): Netherlands: Dutch parties to form government 9 months after vote
Lithuania Parliamentary Elections: October 11, 2020 and October 25, 2020
Lithuania held parliamentary elections in October 2020. A center-right coalition led by Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS–LKD) defeated the incumbent populist Farmers and Greens. Following the elections, a coalition of four parties – all led by women – formed a government, with Ingrida Šimonytė as the country’s first female prime minister.\
Under the present government, Lithuania has become increasingly vocal on matters related to China’s human rights record, leading other European countries to re-assess their relations with Beijing.
Stuart Lau, Politico (December 6, 2021): Lithuania asks EU for ‘strong reaction’ to Chinese pressure: The Baltic nation was hit by Chinese economic sanctions after accepting Taiwan’s offer to open a new diplomatic office in Vilnius.
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: January 4, 2022
Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: December 15, 2021
Last Updated: January 12, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
December 15, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: Begins January 4, 2022
Hannah Roberts, Politico (December 14, 2021): Italy’s succession dilemma: It only wants Mario Draghi: Draghi is the only consensus option for both prime minister and president — two mutually exclusive jobs.
Angelo Amante, Reuters (December 9, 2021): Mission impossible? Berlusconi launches bid for Italian presidency
Portugal Snap Elections: January 30, 2022
Portugal will hold snap elections on January 30, following the government’s defeat in a crucial budget vote.
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister. In the 2019 elections, the Socialists won again, but did not get a majority. Subsequently, Costa formed a minority government.
Reuters (December 5, 2021): Portuguese parliament dissolved ahead of Jan 30 election
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Austria is due to hold a presidential election in April 2022, although in Austria’s parliamentary system, the role is largely ceremonial. Recently, the resignation of center-right chancellor Sebastian Kurz has shaken politics.
AFP (December 3, 2021): Austria names new chancellor after Kurz’s shock resignation
Steven Erlanger, New York Times (December 2, 2021): Double Resignation Shakes Austrian Politics in Aftermath of Scandal: Sebastian Kurz, a former chancellor under investigation for influence-buying and corruption, said he was quitting politics. Within hours, his successor and ally also resigned, after only two months on the job.
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community. Moreover, Orbán’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China have become a concern for many Hungarian voters.
A number of opposition parties recently held a primary to field a single candidate for prime minister. Ultimately, conservative Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely, won the second round, defeating leftist Klára Dobrev, after liberal Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony – who had been seen as a favorite – dropped out and endorsed Márki-Zay.
Reuters (December 13, 2021): Hungary PM Orban unexpectedly delays deal to buy Budapest Airport
Lili Bayer, Politico (December 9, 2021): Biden sees if a snub will get Orbán’s attention: Not all of the Hungarian leader’s critics are convinced leaving Hungary out of a democracy summit is an effective punishment.
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: By April 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Dimitar Bechev, Carnegie Europe (December 14, 2021): Serbia: A Testament to People Power
Ivana Saric, Axios (December 13, 2021): Environmental protests rock Serbia
Nevena Bogdanovic and Andy Heil, RFE/RL (December 1, 2021): ‘Like Someone Cutting Off Your Arms And Legs’: Rio Tinto’s Lithium Mine Sparks Anger In Serbia
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022, followed by Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
France holds presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. These follow the June 2021 regional elections, in which the far-right failed to make gains that had been predicted by pre-election polls. The regional elections put the center-right Republicans in a stronger position to challenge President Emmanuel Macron.
Meanwhile, while many had predicted a rematch between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, whom Macron defeated in 2017, it is becoming increasingly unclear who will make it to the second round (if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the top two face off in a runoff on April 24). The rise of far-right media personality Éric Zemmour, who is often compared to Donald Trump, could take support away from Le Pen.
As for the traditionally-dominant parties, the center-right Les Républicans are holding a congress to select their candidate. The Socialists have already held their primary, which was won by Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo.
Marc Perelman, France24 (December 15, 2021 – video): Macron steps into campaign mode as conservative rival Pécresse climbs in polls
Andrew Glencross, Washington Post (December 13, 2021): People wrote off France’s center right. But Valérie Pécresse’s presidential run may be another story.
Rym Momtaz, Politico (December 9, 2021): French election permeates Macron’s EU presidency priorities: French leader’s EU wish list echoed 2022 campaign themes.
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Sweden’s next elections are not due until September 2022, but in June 2021, the left-leaning coalition led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven fell in a no-confidence vote. Lofven was re-elected PM, but could fall in yet another no-confidence vote if his government cannot pass a budget. In August, Lofven suddenly announced his resignation, effective in November. Magdalena Andersson, currently the finance minister, looks likely to succeed him and become Sweden’s first female prime minister.
Maria Oskarson, IPS Journal (December 13, 2021): Sweden’s Social Democrats turn left
Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections: October 2022 (due)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is due to hold general elections in October 2020. The 202 local elections, which took place in the context of gridlock and ethno-nationalism, delivered a blow to the three main ethnic-based political parties, with opposition forces winning in Sarajevo and other key cities. BiH faces a number of problems, including poor economic prospects, incompetent governance, and bitter political fights. More
DW (December 11, 2021): Bosnia: Serbs vote to leave key institutions in secession move
Janine Di Giovanni, Vanity Fair (December 9, 2021): Bosnia Redux: Are the Balkans Headed for Another War?
Gorana Grgić, War on the Rocks (December 3, 2021): Why the West Won’t Do More in the Balkans
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023
Greece is due to hold parliamentary elections by August 2023. The last elections – snap polls that took place in July 2019 – saw the defeat of left-wing PM Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party (which had been governing in a strange coalition with the far-right Independent Greeks party), following heavy Syriza losses during local and European Parliament elections earlier that year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the parliamentary polls and formed a government on its own, without the need for coalition partners.
Until 2015, Greece’s two main parties had been New Democracy and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK). Currently, PASOK is the third-biggest party in parliament, behind New Democracy and Syriza.
Demetris Nellas, AP (December 12, 2021): EU lawmaker Androulakis elected Greek socialist leader
Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections, Take 3 and Presidential Election: November 14, 2021
Bulgaria a presidential election on November 14 along with a third set of parliamentary elections since no government was formed following the July 11 elections (themselves the result of no government being formed following the original elections on April 4). In Bulgaria’s parliamentary system, the prime minister holds executive power, while the president is largely ceremonial.
In the April polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People (ITN), led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election.
In the July elections, Trifonov’s ITN surpassed GERB to win the most seats, but not enough for a majority. ITN was not able to form a government, and the Socialists refused.
This time around, a new party called We Continue the Change won the most seats and is currently in the process of trying to form a government. It frequently touts the Harvard degrees of its two leaders. More
Tsvetelia Tsolova, Reuters (December 13, 2021): Harvard-educated Petkov elected as Bulgaria’s prime minister
Diana Simeonava, AFP (December 11, 2021): Bulgaria’s PM-designate announces graft-fighting govt
Walter Mayr, Spiegel (December 6, 2021): “We Will Be Merciless in Applying the Law”: With his promise to ruthlessly fight corruption, Harvard graduate Kiril Petkov recently enjoyed an upset victory in the election in Bulgaria. In an interview, he explains how he hopes to succeed in reinventing his country, which has long had a reputation for corruption.
RFE/RL (December 3, 2021): Bulgaria’s New Fragmented Parliament Convenes Ahead Of Coalition Talks
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia held local elections on October 17, 2021 which delivered a landslide victory for the opposition VMRO-DPMNE. These follow par liamentary elections in July 2020. Following a historic agreement with Greece, and a name change, North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and is currently in talks to join the EU (although now Bulgaria is trying to hold that up).
The country’s politics are fragmented and fractious. The 2020 elections were extremely close, but ultimately PM Zoran Zaev and his Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) were able to once again form a government with the backing of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the main ethnic Albanian party (ethnic Albanians make up about a quarter of the population). SDSM also controlled most of the municipalities heading into the local elections, having beaten the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE in a majority of municipalities and ousting the VMRO-DMPNE mayor of Skopje.
Zeljko Trkanjec, Euractiv (December 14, 2021): Draft conclusions foresee start of accession talks for North Macedonia
Nektaria Stamouli, Politico (December 13, 2021): Dimitar Kovachevski on course to become North Macedonia’s new prime minister
Sinisa Jakov Marusic, Balkan Insight (December 6, 2021): North Macedonia Govt Solidifies Majority, Adding New Coalition Partner
Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (December 3, 2021): Bulgaria Returns to ‘History’ in Veto Talks with North Macedonia
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
The Czech Republic held parliamentary elections October 8-9, 2021. The current prime minister, controversial billionaire Andrej Babiš, came to power following the 2017 parliamentary elections. His populist ANO party won a plurality, but not majority, of seats, and he has had a turbulent tenure in office. Ultimately, an opposition coalition of the center-right and the center-left Pirates narrowly defeated Babis and are expected to form the next government. More
Aneta Zachová, Euractiv (December 14, 2021): New Czech PM flexes muscles in first clash with president
AP (December 13, 2021): Czech president to swear in new government on Friday
Robert Tait, The Guardian (December 10, 2021): Czech president rejects nominee for foreign minister over ‘low qualifications’
Expats.cz (December 13, 2021): New Czech govt. will not seek extension of the state of emergency
Natalie Liu, Voice of America (December 10, 2021): Communism: Down and Out in the Czech Republic
Milana Nikolova, Emerging Europe (December 2, 2021): The decline and fall of Central and Eastern Europe’s communist successor parties
Germany Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus state elections throughout the year)
Germany held several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), headed by Olaf Scholz, placed first, with 25.7 percent of the vote. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian partner Christian Social Union (CSU), suffered a historic defeat in these elections, placing second with 24.1 percent of the vote, possibly due to the personal unpopularity of its standard-bearer, Armin Laschet, who made a series of gaffes during the campaign.
A big story during the election was the rise of the Greens, who even topped opinion polls at various points, but ultimately placed third. They portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, choosing pragmatist Annalena Baerbock as their standard-bearer. Finally, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) placed fourth, with 11 percent of the vote, after five years of having no seats in the Bundestag (since FDP failed to meet the 5 percent threshold in the 2017 elections).
The next government will be a “traffic light coalition” consisting of SPD, plus FDP and the Greens, with SPD’s Olaf Scholz becoming chancellor, Baerbock foreign minister, and FDP’s Christian Lindner finance minister.
Geir Moulson, AP (December 8, 2021): Scholz replaces Merkel as German chancellor, opening new era
Netherlands Parliamentary Elections: March 17, 2021
Netherlands held parliamentary elections on March 17, 2020. Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right VVD once again won the most seats, but coalition negotiations continued for nearly six months after the elections. The parties finally announced that they would probably renew the four-party coalition, and remain in government. More
Thomas Erdbrink, New York Times (December 15, 2021): After Months, a ‘New’ Dutch Coalition With the Same Leader and Parties
DW (December 13, 2021): Netherlands: Dutch parties to form government 9 months after vote
Lithuania Parliamentary Elections: October 11, 2020 and October 25, 2020
Lithuania held parliamentary elections in October 2020. A center-right coalition led by Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS–LKD) defeated the incumbent populist Farmers and Greens. Following the elections, a coalition of four parties – all led by women – formed a government, with Ingrida Šimonytė as the country’s first female prime minister.\
Under the present government, Lithuania has become increasingly vocal on matters related to China’s human rights record, leading other European countries to re-assess their relations with Beijing.
Stuart Lau, Politico (December 6, 2021): Lithuania asks EU for ‘strong reaction’ to Chinese pressure: The Baltic nation was hit by Chinese economic sanctions after accepting Taiwan’s offer to open a new diplomatic office in Vilnius.
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Italy Indirect Presidential Election: January 4, 2022
Cyprus, Northern Cyprus Snap Elections: January 22, 2022
Finland County Elections: January 23, 2022
Portugal Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 30, 2022
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: April 3, 2022
France Presidential Election: April 10 and 24, 2022
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
France Legislative Elections: June 12 and 19, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: December 14, 2021
Last Updated: January 4, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
December 14, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: December 24, 2021
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. However, in November 2020, Libyan stakeholders participating in UN-sponsored talks proposed December 24, 2021 for presidential and parliamentary elections. At this point, it looks like the elections are moving forward, with candidates declaring. However, delays are always possible.
Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More
Ahmed Elumami and Stephanie van den Berg, Reuters (December 13, 2021): In Libya, Gaddafi leadership bid opens old wounds
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian (December 12, 2021): Libya: plan for presidential election on 24 December close to collapse: US ambassador says delay would put country at mercy of those who prefer ‘bullet power over ballot power’
Al Jazeera (December 11, 2021): Libya delays candidate list as likely election postponement looms: Disputes about fundamental rules governing the election have continued throughout the process, including over the voting timetable.
AFP (December 11, 2021): Libya delays presidential candidate list for election scheduled in less than two weeks
Mirette Magdy, Bloomberg (December 8, 2021): How Election Will Test War-Torn Libya’s Fragile Unity
Reuters (December 2, 2021): Libya court reinstates Gaddafi presidential bid amid election chaos
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: March 27, 2022
Lebanon has set parliamentary elections for March 27, 2022, over a month early. The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis.
Tessa Fox, Foreign Policy (December 6, 2021): Lebanon’s Reformers Trade the Street for the Ballot Box: After 40 years of stasis, some new faces sense a glimmer of hope to change Lebanon’s poisoned politics.
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 2022 and Early Elections: Late 2022
Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.
Reuters (December 14, 2021): Tunisia’s president calls constitutional referendum followed by elections in 2022
Tarek Amara, Reuters (December 9, 2021): One person dies, 12 injured in fire at Tunisian Ennahda party HQ
Turkey
Jared Malsin, Wall Street Journal (December 13, 2021): As Turkey’s Currency Collapses, Erdogan’s Support Sinks Even in His Hometown
Kristina Jovanovski, The Media Line (December 13, 2021): Erdoğan’s opponents face increased pressure as Turkish president’s popularity declines: Analysts say Turkey’s currency crisis and rising consumer prices hurt Erdoğan’s chance of re-election.
Marc Pierini and Francesco Siccardi, Carnegie Europe (December 9, 2021): Understanding Turkey’s Direction: Three Scenarios
Diego Cupolo, Al-Monitor (December 6, 2021): Government critic elected to lead Union of Turkish Bar Associations
Past Middle East Elections
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Phase 2: March 26, 2022
The Palestinian Authority is holding elections in two phases, the first of which took place on December 11, 2021, and the second of which is due on March 26, 2022. The PA has postponed its long overdue elections for the legislature and president, which had been scheduled for May 22 and July 31, respectively. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 16 of a four-year term. Similarly, the last Legislative Council elections took place in 2006.
Daoud Kuttab, Arab News (December 13, 2021): Palestinian local elections might give a small boost to Fatah
Jack Jeffrey, AP (December 11, 2021): Some 400,000 Palestinians vote in rare municipal elections
Rami Ayyub and Ali Sawafta, Reuters (December 11, 2021): Palestinians vote in local elections amid rising anger with Abbas
Thomas Grove, Wall Street Journal (December 11, 2021): After Battling Israel, Hamas’s Popularity Rests on Hopes It Can Collect the West Bank’s Trash: Local elections will test whether Palestinians trust candidates aligned with the Gaza militant group to clean up alleged corruption
AFP (December 10, 2021): All-woman list eyes breakthrough in Palestinian poll
Algeria Early Local Elections: November 27, 2021
Algeria held early local elections on November 27, 2021.
These follow the snap legislative elections held on June 12, 2021, following more than two years of protests by the Hirak movement. However, the government’s election plan did not actually satisfied the Hirak, who boycotted the elections and continue to protest. The absence of the Hirak, who are mostly secular, from the elections has paved the way for Islamist parties to become the main opposition. Ultimately, the FLN, the country’s long-dominant nationalist secular party, won both the legislative and the local elections.
AP (December 1, 2021): Algeria’s top parties keep power in local elections
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.
The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.
The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but has reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. More
Sinan Mahmoud, The National UAE (December 14, 2021): Fraud case in Iraq elections could further delay government formation
AFP (December 13, 2021): ‘Fraud’ case against election results opens in Iraq court
Jane Arraf, New York Times (December 9, 2021): U.S. Announces End to Combat Mission in Iraq, but Troops Will Not Leave
Anonymous, Atlantic Council (December 7, 2021): Iran’s allies lost seats in the Iraqi elections. Now Tehran is recalibrating its strategy.
Israel Parliamentary Elections, Take 4: March 23, 2021
On March 23, 2021, Israel held its fourth general election in two years after the collapse of the unity government of Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. Neither Netanyahu’s allies nor his opponents won a majority. Netanyahu, whose conservative Likud party won the most seats, had the first chance to form a coalition, but he failed. Subsequently, Yair Lapid from the centrist Yesh Atid formed a broad coalition with conservative Naftali Bennett, with Bennett as prime minister for a time before rotating the position to Lapid. A number of other parties are in the coalition, which passed a Knesset vote on June 14, thus ending Netanyahu’s 12 years in office. However, the coalition remains tenuous. More
Times of Israel (December 5, 2021): New poll shows Bennett-Lapid government unpopular, but no other viable options: A plurality of Israelis prefer the former coalition to the current one, but new elections would only produce fresh deadlock
Mehul Srivastava, Financial Times (December 2, 2021): Netanyahu struggles to plot path back to power in Israel: Former PM vowed exile from government would be shortlived, but so-called Houdini has yet to stage comeback
Afghanistan Presidential Election: September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held its last presidential election on September 28, 2019. Ashraf Ghani ultimately won re-election in a very tense vote and a tense four months in between the election and the final declaration of results, defeating his main rival, Abdullah Abdullan. The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Afghans not to vote.
Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of much of the country, the future of Afghan politics remains uncertain.
Colin P. Clarke, Foreign Affairs (December 8, 2021): When Terrorists Govern: How the Taliban’s Takeover Is Inspiring Other Jihadis
Muslim Brotherhood
The Economist (December 9, 2021): The Muslim Brotherhood is tearing itself apart: Two leaders vie for control of the oldest Islamist movement
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021 (delays possible)
Jordan Local and Gubernatorial Elections: Fall 2021 (due)
Lebanon Early Parliamentary Elections: March 27, 2022
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content, and their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa This Week: December 13, 2021
Last Updated: January 4, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
December 13, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Senegal Local Elections: January 31, 2022, followed by legislative elections in 2022 and a presidential election in 2024
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 31, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022. Long considered a stable democracy, some backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges. Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term, especially if his allies win another majority in the 2022 legislative elections.
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production. More
Mawunyo Hermann Boko, Jeune Afrique (December 11, 2021 – in French): Senegal: post of prime minister officially re-established
Marc Perelman, France 24 (December 9, 2021 – in French, with video): Khalifa Sall, Senegalese opposition and former mayor of Dakar: “I will be a presidential candidate in 2024”
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following two coups)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. On May 25, Mali had another coup, but leaders have stated that the elections will remain on the calendar for 2022. However, the situation remains fluid.
Mali’s location in the Sahel makes it a geopolitical hotspot, with rising Islamist insurgent activity and terrorism. Keita had close ties with France, and Mali remains part of Operation Barkhane, a French military counterterrorism operation. However, the interim governments have bolstered ties with Russia and have reached out to the Wagner Group, a mercenary outfit with close links to the Kremlin.
RFI (December 13, 2021): West African bloc ECOWAS warns of sanctions if Mali misses election deadline
AFP (December 12, 2021): Mali Leader Promises Election Timetable by Jan 31
Henry Foy, Financial Times (December 10, 2021): EU to impose sanctions against Russian mercenary group Wagner: Measures will include asset freezes and travel bans in response to activities in Syria, Ukraine and Africa
Marc Perelman and Franck Alexandre, France24 (December 7, 2021): Russian mercenaries in Mali would be ‘unacceptable’: French defence minister
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso is due to hold local elections in May 2022. These follow presidential and parliamentary elections on November 22, 2020, in the context of a growing security crisis (in Burkina Faso in particular and in the broader Sahel region), as well as political uncertainty as the country’s democrats seek to consolidate the young, fragile democracy. President Roch Marc Christian Kabore won re-election. More
Anne Mimault, Reuters (December 13, 2021): As conflict stalks Burkina Faso borderlands, hunger spreads
Al Jazeera (December 11, 2021): Burkina Faso president names Lassina Zerbo as prime minister: The 58-year-old geophysicist is to take office amid rising popular discontent over deadly violence in the country.
AFP (December 8, 2021): Burkina Faso PM resigns following protests over jihadist violence
Henry Wilkins, Voice of America (December 3, 2021): Burkina Faso’s 1.3M Displaced People Increasingly Fall Victim to Terrorists
Henry Wilkins, Voice of America (November 29, 2021): Protesters, Angry at Insecurity, Call for Burkina Faso’s President to Resign
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Because of the crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, Kenya plays an important role in the region. In addition, Kenya has been an important partner to the United States and other countries on counterterrorism.
AFP (December 11, 2021): Raila Odinga: Kenya’s diehard presidential hopeful
Al Jazeera (December 10, 2021): Kenyan opposition leader Odinga announces fifth bid for president
Aaron Erlich, The Conversation (December 6, 2021): Vote buying is a big problem in Kenya. How to curb it before the 2022 elections
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
Al Jazeera (December 11, 2021): Angola ruling party backs President Joao Lourenco for second term: MPLA leader, who succeeded Jose Eduardo dos Santos as president in 2017, will contest next year’s poll.
BBC (December 10, 2021): Isabel dos Santos: Angolan billionaire hit with US visa restrictions
Julia Payne, Reuters (December 9, 2021): U.S. adds former Angolan General Dino to sanctions list
Africanews (December 6, 2021): Angolan opposition re-elect Adalberto Costa Junior as leader
AFP (December 5, 2021): Angola Opposition Party Re-Elects Adalberto Costa After Ousting By Court
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due) and Presidential Election: April 2023 (due)
Equatorial Guinea is due to hold elections in 2022 and 2023. Elections the country have been neither free nor fair. Current president Teodoro Obiang seized power in a coup in 1979 and has ruled ever since. He presides over one of the most brutal regimes in Africa.
Equatorial Guinea discovered oil in the 1990s, and has since become one of the biggest oil producers in the region. Nonetheless, much of the population still lives in poverty.
Fred Harter, Times of London (December 6, 2021): US concerns after China targets Equatorial Guinea for Atlantic naval base
Michael M. Phillips, Wall Street Journal (December 5, 2021): China Seeks First Military Base on Africa’s Atlantic Coast, U.S. Intelligence Finds: Alarmed officials at the White House and Pentagon urge Equatorial Guinea to rebuff Beijing’s overtures
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2023. These will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. However, democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe.
Chipo Dendere, Mail and Guardian (December 13, 2021): To win in 2023, Zimbabwe’s opposition will have to court the military
Farai Shawn Matiashe, The Africa Report (December 3, 2021): Zimbabwe: Is Zanu PF imploding ahead of the 2023 elections?
Peter Fabricius, Daily Maverick (November 29, 2021): Accusations and bullets fly in Zimbabwe as MDC-A allege assassination attempts by Zanu-PF
Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 2023 (due)
The DRC is due to hold general elections in 2023. The December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu.
When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi.
The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned.
The Economist (December 9, 2021): Congo’s president has not kept his word: From free schools to peace in the east, Félix Tshisekedi has failed to deliver
Sudan General Elections: By 2024 (due – unclear following coup)
Sudan plans to hold general elections by 2024, the culmination of a five-year transition to democracy that began with the July 2019 removal of dictator Omar al-Bashir following several months of protests. Al-Bashir was removed in a military coup, and a junta ruled briefly, but entered into an agreement with the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a wide-ranging coalition of opposition groups, to transition the country to democracy. However, numerous challenges remain.
Reuters (December 4, 2021): Sudan’s Burhan Says Military Will Exit Politics After 2023 Elections
Al Jazeera (December 6, 2021): Sudan police fire tear gas as thousands protest against military: Demonstrators in different locations across Khartoum and other cities voice their rejection of the military deal reached last month.
Past Africa Elections
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Gambia held its first presidential election since it began its remarkable transition to democracy in 2016, when citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box. In a surprising election result, opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. However, the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship has not been easy. Jammeh sought to influence this election from exile (he is currently in Equatorial Guinea). Although Jammeh and Barrow had previously made a controversial pre-election deal, they abandoned it and Jammeh ultimately called on voters to oust Barrow, who nonetheless won re-election by a large margin.
However, even though international observers and Gambian civil society organizations have called the vote credible, some opposition candidates are challenging the results. More
Pap Saine, Reuters (December 13, 2021): Gambia opposition files legal challenge to election result
Niklas Hultin, The Conversation (December 9, 2021): What Barrow’s re-election means for The Gambia
AFP (December 8, 2021): US hails Gambian elections after Barrow victory
David Coffey with RFI (December 7, 2021): Gambia’s losing presidential candidate calls for calm as opposition contests election result
Pap Saine, Reuters (December 7, 2021): Gambia police disperse protesters contesting president’s re-election
Alieu Sanneh, The Conversation (December 7, 2021): The Gambia’s 55-year-old marbles voting system is simple but difficult to cheat
Abdoulie John, AP (December 5, 2021): Gambia President Barrow wins re-election in post-Jammeh vote
Reuters (December 4, 2021): Gambians vote with marbles in key test for stability
Sarah Sahko, France24 (December 2, 2021): Ex-president Yahya Jammeh’s victims still waiting for justice ahead of Gambia polls
South Africa Local Elections: November 1, 2021
South Africa held local elections on November 1, 2021. Voters elected councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. The elections took place in the context of unrest following the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma for corruption. In that vein, the ruling African National Congress had its worst election result since the end of apartheid, gaining less than 50 percent of the vote. More
Carin Runciman and Martin Bekker, The Conversation (December 8, 2021): Here are five factors that drove low voter turnout in South Africa’s 2021 elections
Editorial Board, Financial Times (December 5, 2021): South Africa is slowly edging towards a post-ANC future: After gains in local elections, opposition needs pro-growth policies
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia held August 12, 2021 following a hotly-contested campaign between President Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, who narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016. Ultimately, Hichilema won the presidential election in a landslide, restoring hope in Zambia’s democracy.
Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. Similarly, this year, despite concerns about violence and the larger pre-election environment – as well as a social media shutdown on election day – observers judged the polls credible. Lungu initially took a page from Donald Trump’s playbook and alleged fraud, but ultimately conceded defeat. Hichilema’s liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) also won a majority in the parliamentary election.
Chiwoyu Sinyangwe, The Africa Report (December 9, 2021): Zambia: Hichilema’s first 100 days, a clash of expectations and reality
Sishuwa Sishuwa, African Arguments (December 2, 2021): The good, the bad and the alarming: Hichilema’s first 100 days in Zambia
Benin Presidential Election: April 11, 2021
Benin held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. Incumbent Patrice Talon won a second term after largely keeping the opposition off the ballot. Previously a model democracy in the region, Benin has seen democratic decline since Talon’s election in 2016. More
BBC (December 12, 2021): Reckya Madougou: Opposition leader jailing damages Benin democracy – lawyer
AFP (December 11, 2021): Benin opposition leader Reckya Madougou sentenced to 20 years in prison
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Somalia, Indirect Legislative Elections: Ongoing
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022
Somalia Indirect Presidential Election: February 8, 2022 (Tentative, following numerous delays – additional delays possible)
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup – delays possible)
Gambia Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Central African Republic Local Elections: September 2022 (due – delays possible)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
December 2021 Election Outlook
Last Updated: January 12, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Palestinian Authority Local Elections Stage 1 of 2: December 11, 2021
New Caledonia Independence Referendum: December 12, 2021
Taiwan Referendums: December 18, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 19, 2021
Chile Presidential Runoff: December 19, 2021
Bhutan Local Elections: December 22, 2021
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: December 24, 2021
Americas This Week: December 11, 2021
Last Updated: January 1, 2022 by 21votes Leave a Comment
December 11, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Chile Presidential Runoff: December 19, 2021
Chile held presidential and legislative elections on November 21, and will hold a presidential runoff on December 19. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
Although results of the July 18 presidential primaries seemed to indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation, the runoff will pit far-left socialist former student leader Gabriel Boric against Jose Antonio Kast, a far-right legislator with ties to the Pinochet dictatorship.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Sam Meredith, CNBC (December 10, 2021): ‘One of two extremes’: Chile set for its most divisive election run-off since returning to democracy
Steve Forbes, Forbes (December 9, 2021 – video): Chile’s Presidential Election: Will Socialism Or Free Markets Prevail?
Samantha Schmidt and Diana Durán, Washington Post (December 7, 2021): Chile’s congress recognizes same-sex marriage, joining Latin America’s shift toward gay rights
Philip Sanders and Valentina Fuentes, Bloomberg (December 2, 2021): Chile Election Pits Hardline Catholic Against Leftist Candidate
Fernando Claro-Valdés, Financial Times (December 1, 2021 – letter to the editor): Letter: Why Boric is seen as the extremist in Chile’s election
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots recently. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
The Economist (December 11, 2021): Despite the polls, a centrist could win Colombia’s election in May: Undecided voters may shun Gustavo Petro, a populist of the left
Gabriella Levy, Juan Tellez, and Mateo Villamizar-Chaparro, Washington Post (December 2, 2021): Five years after Colombia’s peace deal, the FARC is no longer on U.S. terrorist group lists. But Colombia’s peace is far from secure, our research shows
Reuters (November 30, 2021): Colombia Presidential Hopeful Fajardo Seek Safeguards After Ruling Against Him
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
Americas Quarterly (December 9, 2021 – podcast): AQ Podcast: Brazil’s Polarized Presidential Election
David Gormezano, France24 (December 6, 2021): Lula, Brazil’s popular ex-president, battles for 2022 political comeback
Mexico Presidential Election: July 2024 (due)
Mexico’s next presidential election is due on July 2024. The last elections were high-stakes midterm legislative elections, as well as gubernatorial elections in 15 of Mexico’s 31 states, and local elections, on June 6, 2021. In total, more than 21,000 offices are at stake – the biggest elections in Mexico’s history.
The 2021 elections were a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and he largely lost – his MORENA party did not get its majority in the legislature, and although MORENA won most of the state governorships, it lost control of most areas of Mexico City. AMLO, who has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian manner, wants to transform Mexico by jettisoning the market economy, but these election results have made it harder for him to do that.
Meanwhile, political violence is on the rise, with at least 88 politicians killed and hundreds of candidates targeted. More
Leila Miller, Los Angeles Times (December 3, 2021): Why Mexico’s president is promoting a recall against himself
Benjamin Russell, Americas Quarterly (December 2, 2021): Claudia Sheinbaum: Technocrat or True Believer? Mexico City’s mayor is an early favorite to succeed AMLO as president. An extended fight over energy reform sheds light on how she’d govern.
Past Americas Elections
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras held presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidential race.
These elections took place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Some feared post-election turmoil this year, but Nasry Asfura, the National Party’s candidate, conceded.
On the geopolitical front, Honduras is one of the few countries that maintains formal diplomatic relations Taiwan, but Beijing has been pressuring politicians to change that. LIBRE has said that it will switch its recognition to Beijing if it wins these elections. More
Al Jazeera (December 10, 2021): Incoming Honduras gov’t to keep Taiwan ties for now: Officials’ comments come a day after Nicaragua broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan to resume ties with China.
Kathrin Hille and Christine Murray, Financial Times (December 5, 2021): Honduras becomes new front in US-China struggle over Taiwan: President Xiaomara Castro’s pledge to shift diplomatic ties to Beijing from Taipei irks Washington
Gustavo Palencia, Reuters (December 3, 2021): Incoming Honduras president signals U-turn on initiating China ties
Patricio Navia and Lucas Perelló, Global Americans (November 30, 2021): Xiomara Castro’s Historic Win: What Happens Next?
Anatoly Kurmanaev and Joan Suazo, New York Times (November 29, 2021): Honduras Election Front-Runner Vows New Era but Is Tied to Past
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
Moisés Naim, Wall Street Journal (December 10, 2021): Venezuela’s Fatal Embrace of Cuba
Jennifer Hansler, CNN (December 10, 2021): Top State Department official travels to Venezuela to meet with detained Americans
Regina Garcia Cano, AP (December 9, 2021): Vote shock in Chávez homeland underscores Venezuela’s divide
Deisy Buitrago and Vivian Sequera, Reuters (December 5, 2021): In new blow to Venezuelan opposition, major leader quits interim government
Regina Garcia Cano, The Independent (December 4, 2021): Voters protest disqualification of Venezuelan candidate
Vivian Sequera, Reuters (December 3, 2021): Venezuela denies visa extension for electoral observers-source
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Argentina held midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. The ruling Peronists took a major hit, losing control of the legislature for the first time in decades.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Kyle Rose, Foreign Brief (December 10, 2021): New National Congress of Argentina to take office
Patricio Provitina, Global Americans (December 2, 2021): Argentina’s Uncertain Future: Fernández, the IMF, and the Opposition after the Midterms
AFP (December 1, 2021): Argentine ex-president Macri charged in spying case: court
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
Evan Ellis, Global Americans (December 10, 2021): Nicaragua’s Flip to China: What Does It Mean for the Region?
Buenos Aires Times (December 10, 2021): OAS finds Nicaragua in breach of the Inter-American Democratic Charter
Confidencial (December 8, 2021): OAS calls emergency session to approve resolution on Nicaragua
Joseph Choi, The Hill (December 9, 2021): Nicaragua breaks diplomatic relations with Taiwan, recognizes Chinese sovereignty
Barbados Indirect Presidential Election: October 20, 2021
Barbados’s parliament elected former governor general Sandra Mason president on October 20, following a decision made in September to remove Queen Elizabeth II as head of state and begin the process of becoming a republic.
Richard Reddick, NBC News (December 4, 2021): Queen Elizabeth and Barbados relationship change symbolizes a generational shift
Michael Safi, The Guardian (November 30, 2021): Barbados parts way with Queen and becomes world’s newest republic
Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021
Canada held snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hoped to win a majority for his Liberals. He ended up remaining in power, but once again helming a minority government. His gamble did not pay off.
Terry Glavin, Ottawa Citizen (December 1, 2021): Glavin: Evidence abounds of China’s interference in Canada’s elections: We’ve gone well past the point where merely taking note of Beijing’s lies and belligerence will suffice.
J. J. McCullough, Washington Post (November 29, 2021): What sets Canadian and U.S. politics apart? Three critical differences.
Peru Presidential Elections: April 11, 2021 and June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections this year. These elections came on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori alleged fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Marco Aquino, Reuters (December 6, 2021): Analysis: Peru’s Castillo plays whack-a-mole with crises as impeachment threat looms
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021 (postponed – no new date set)
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
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