May 24, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
The Chords Bridge in Jerusalem, Israel, designed by famed Spanish architect Santiago Calatrava. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Little Savage (public domain)
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Libya Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed from December 2021 – date TBD (possibly by June 2022)
Libya’s national elections are overdue and have been postponed due to the political crisis and civil war. Most recently, the country missed the scheduled date of December 24, 2021 for the polls, and it is unclear when they will happen. Following the election delay, the political crisis deepened, and there are currently two rival governments.
The UN has urged elections by June 2022. Libya’s parliament had said elections would not take place this year, but the new interim prime minister, Abdelhamid Dbeibah, later said that the elections would happen by June.
Since the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s dictatorship in 2011, Libya has been in crisis. The country is important because of its oil resources, as well as its ports, which have become a springboard for migrants to Europe. As such, foreign powers remain heavily involved. More
Daily Sabah with AA (May 18, 2022): Al-Mishri urges Libya’s rival PMs to accept change through elections
Samy Magdy, AP (May 18, 2022): Rival Libya PM to set up govt in Sirte after Tripoli clashes
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 15, 2022 and Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Tunisia will hold a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2022, following protests sparked by President Kais Saied’s dismissal of the government, a move some deemed a coup.
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns lingered about the democratic process.
Political and civil society actors hope that the early elections can return Tunisia to a democratic path.
Reuters (May 20, 2022): Tunisia’s President Saied excludes parties from preparing new constitution
The National UAE (May 18, 2022): Tunisia military court jails four opposition legislators
Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Elections: October 1, 2022
Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region plans to hold parliamentary elections on October 1, 2022.
Ali Kurdistani, Al-Monitor (May 12, 2022): Upcoming KRG election marred by political divisions: Due to the political dispute in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, the Oct. 1 regional parliamentary election is likely to be delayed
Turkey General Elections: By June 18, 2023 (snap elections possible)
Turkey is due for general elections in June 2023, but there have been rumors of possible snap elections, and more than half of Turkish citizens want an early vote.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.
Stratfor (May 24, 2022): Turkey, Syria: Erdogan Threatens Fresh Offensive Along Border
Daren Butler, Jonathan Spicer and Maya Gebeily, Reuters (May 24, 2022): Analysis: Erdogan’s vow to expand Syria operations raises stakes in Turkey-NATO row
Francisco Siccardi, Foreign Policy (May 23, 2022): Why Has Erdogan Ramped Up Turkey’s Clash With the PKK? Intensifying conflict with the Kurdish armed movement in Iraq and Syria will likely improve his chances of reelection
Kristina Jovanovski, The Media Line (May 22, 2022): Ahead of Elections, Turkish Opposition Holds Protest as Members Face Imprisonment
Hamdi Firat Buyuk, Balkan Insight (May 18, 2022): Opposition Leader’s Ban Signals Wider Crackdown before Turkish Elections
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Pakistan is due to hold its next general elections by October 12, 2023. However, Prime Minister Imran Khan has surprisingly called for early elections after surviving a no-confidence vote. However, it is unclear when – or whether – the snap elections will take place.
Khan, a former cricket star, came to power following the turbulent 2018 elections, and his time in office has not been calm. In 2020, his party took a major political hit when it failed to win a majority in the Senate, and he has faced several no-confidence threats. Instability has been a characteristic of Pakistan’s politics since its founding. In fact, no prime minister has completed a full term since the country’s founding in 1947.
Pakistan is a geopolitical hotspot, between the conflict in Kashmir and continued heavy military presence and China’s increased presence through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Munir Ahmed, AP (May 24, 2022): Pakistani ex-PM Khan demands new elections be set in 6 days
Kamran Haider, Bloomberg (May 22, 2022): Pakistan’s Ex-PM Khan Calls for Protests to Force Elections
Madiha Afzal, Brookings Institution (May 20, 2022): What is happening in Pakistan’s continuing crisis?
Past Middle East Elections
Lebanon Parliamentary Elections: May 15, 2022
Lebanon held parliamentary elections for May 15, 2022. Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats.
The country has been in a political crisis and without a government since the port explosion in Beirut, in which 215 people died, 7,500 were injured, and 300,000 were left homeless. Moreover, Lebanon is in an economic crisis, with its currency hitting record lows and crippling inflation.
Many Lebanese people are in a state of despair, but some have hope that these elections could bring a hint of change.
Dale Gavlak, Voice of America (May 22, 2022): Lebanon’s Reform MPs Want Long-Standing Speaker Out
Kali Robinson, Council on Foreign Relations (May 19, 2022): What Lebanon’s Election Results Mean for Ending Its Crisis
AJ Naddaff, Foreign Policy (May 18, 2022): Lebanon’s Surprisingly Promising Election: After years of political deadlock, the country may be starting to shake off its ruling class
Middle East Institute (May 18, 2022): Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political scene
Iraq Early Parliamentary Elections: October 10, 2021
Iraq held early elections on October 10 (postponed from the original proposal of holding them on June 6, 2021, one year early) as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The country is also due to hold provincial (sometimes called governorate) elections.
The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability. The political climate is violent and chaotic, with over 600 people killed since the start of the protests. Moreover, a number of political parties have announced plans to boycott the polls.
The Shi’ite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential politicians, had announced a boycott, but ultimately reversed course and urged his followers to support the elections. He subsequently proceeded to win the elections. However, other parties – specifically, pro-Iran Shi’ite parties – challenged the election results. The Supreme Court rejected the challenge.
Sadr, who opposes both Iranian and American influence in Iraqi politics – was thought to be the likely be the kingmaker in the new government. But he is currently refusing to conduct talks with his rivals, resulting in deadlock. More
UN Security Council (May 18, 2022): Iraq’s People Still Awaiting Political Class Capable of Addressing Critical Domestic Challenges, Top Official Tells Security Council
Israel Parliamentary Elections, Take 4: March 23, 2021
On March 23, 2021, Israel held its fourth general election in two years after the collapse of the unity government of Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. Neither Netanyahu’s allies nor his opponents won a majority. Netanyahu, whose conservative Likud party won the most seats, had the first chance to form a coalition, but he failed. Subsequently, Yair Lapid from the centrist Yesh Atid formed a broad coalition with conservative Naftali Bennett, with Bennett as prime minister for a time before rotating the position to Lapid. A number of other parties are in the coalition, which passed a Knesset vote on June 14, thus ending Netanyahu’s 12 years in office. However, the coalition remains tenuous.
Local elections in Jerusalem are due on October 31, 2023 More
AP (May 22, 2022): Israeli Arab lawmaker rejoins coalition days after quitting
Jerusalem Post (May 22, 2022): Israeli politics: What happens if Israel goes to elections? – poll
i24 News (May 22, 2022): Israel: Likud MK calls for party primaries if Netanyahu can’t form gov’t
Carrie Keller-Lynn, Times of Israel (May 19, 2022): New elections creep closer with resignation, but coalition of 59 not buried yet
Egypt Parliamentary Elections: October-December 2020
Egypt held elections for both houses of parliament this year. They were widely considered a sham by the opposition, civil society, and the public. More
Al-Monitor (May 24, 2022): Egypt’s National Dialogue unlikely to include Muslim Brotherhood
Heba Saleh, Financial Times (May 21, 2022): Family fears for health of activist on hunger strike in Egyptian jail
AP (May 18, 2022): Egypt: Mubarak son says family clear of corruption charges
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Libya Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: Overdue (delayed from December 24, 2021 – no date set but some have proposed to hold the elections by June 2022)
Tunisia Constitutional Referendum: July 25, 2022
Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: October 1, 2022
Bahrain Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Tunisia Early Legislative Elections: December 17, 2022
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: By June 18, 2023
Pakistan General Elections: By October 12, 2023
Israel Local Elections: October 2023
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections: October 2023
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections: October 2023 (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers)
Egypt Local Elections: Due and discussed, but not scheduled
Oman Local Elections: Due, but postponed due to COVID-19
Palestinian Authority Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, postponed yet again, no date set
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