Asia This Week: February 18, 2022

February 18, 2022

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.

Sanamahi Temple in the Kangla Fort in Manipur, India. Photo credit:
Wikimedia/Kayla N (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Ongoing Asia/Pacific Elections

India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)

Five Indian states are due to hold elections in early 2022. These elections will be a key test for the national parties – and PM Narendra Modi – ahead of national elections in 2024. In the last national elections, in 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won a “thumping victory, securing a second term in office in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – has done well some subsequent state elections.

First up for this round of state polls: Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven stages from February 10 to March 7. The BJP currently dominates the state legislature, and the Chief Minister is controversial Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath.

Punjab will also vote on February 20. The state government is currently led by Congress Party. Manipur – currently led by BJP – votes on February 28 and March 5.

Gujarat (Modi’s home state) is due to vote later this year, and a handful of other states go to the polls in 2023.

Reuters (February 15, 2022): India’s PM faces hijab controversy before elections

Hari Kumar and Emily Schmall, Irish Times (February 13, 2022): Narendra Modi faces early referendum as several Indian states go to polls: Voters in Uttar Pradesh concerned about economy but ruling BJP keeps focus on religion

Tanika Godbole, DW (February 11, 2022): Can ‘Hindu extremist’ Yogi Adiyanath become India’s next premier?

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022

South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition People Power Party won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.

Four candidates will contest the March presidential election. The frontrunners are retired civil rights lawyer and former Gyeonggi Province (the most populous province that includes Seoul) governor Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party and former prosecutor general Yoon Suk-yeol from the People Power Party. Yoon is leading pre-election polls. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jeung, both from small parties, are also running. The campaign has generally been nasty and neither major candidate is particularly popular with voters or with his respective party – both won their primaries narrowly.

South Korea is a key United States ally, and the South Korean public broadly supports the alliance. However, Moon has pursued diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea and moved closer to China.

Karl Friedhoff, Sang Kim, and Lee Sook-Jong, The Diplomat (February 18, 2022 – podcast): South Korea’s Presidential Election: The Big Picture

Leo Lewis, Financial Times (February 16, 2022): South Korea’s push for developed nation status may not be the win it hopes: Promotion in MSCI equity index is a key issue in presidential polls — but it has risks as well as attractions

S. Nathan Park, Unherd (February 16, 2022): Inside South Korea’s incel election: Young conservatives claim to be victims of feminism

Park Chan-kyong, South China Morning Post (February 15, 2022): South Korea presidential race: who’s running and where do they stand on China, the US, and North Korea?

Reuters (February 14, 2022): Factbox: Houses, scandals, missiles: The issues at stake in S.Korea’s presidential election

Malaysia, Early State Elections in Johor: March 12, 2022 and Early General Elections: Expected

Malaysia will likely call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. In Malaysia’s federal system, state governments have significant powers to make laws for their own states, and the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah have even more power than the 11 peninsular Malaysian states.

Melaka (or Malacca – located on the Strait of Malacca, a key strategic choke point) held snap elections on November 20, which delivered a victory for the ruling coalition. In addition, Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, subsequently held state elections very shortly after the federal government lifts the COVID-19 state of emergency, and Sabah, the other Borneo state, also held polls.

Next up: Johor, which borders Singapore, will hold snap elections on March 12, 2022 after the state’s chief minister dissolved the state legislature (elections were originally due in 2023).

The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread as Ismail Sabri Yaakob, from UMNO, became prime minister in August 2021, following protests and general chaos. He replaced Muhyiddin Yassin, who was only in office for 17 months (the shortest-ever tenure of a Malaysian prime minister). More

P Prem Kumar and CK Tan, Nikkei Asia (February 15, 2022): Malaysia eyes China 40 years after it ‘looked east’ to Japan

Amir Yusof and Rashvinjeet S Bedi, Channel News Asia (February 14, 2022): ‘The last thing we need now is an election’: Johor voters wary of state polls amid Omicron wave

Philippines General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, and Local): May 9, 2022

Philippines holds general elections on May 9, 2022. In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. His daughter, Sara Duterte, will run for vice president as the running mate of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the notorious late former dictator.

Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front. Boxing star Manny Pacquiao, a former Duterte ally, had been discussed as a possible presidential candidate for 1Sambayan, but the alliance ultimately decided to endorse current vice president Leni Robredo, who is not actually politically aligned with Duterte (in the Philippines, the president and vice president are elected separately, and Robredo ran in the last election on the Liberal Party ticket in opposition to Duterte).

While the Philippines lacks significant hard power, it is located in a geopolitically crucial area. The country has been a key U.S. ally since World War II, but Duterte has flirted with moves to bring the Philippines closer to China and away from the United States during his tenure in office. However, the country has ultimately kept the defense pact with the U.S. in tact.

Yuichi Shiga, Nikkei Asia (February 17, 2022): Trailing Marcos, Philippine presidential hopefuls court anti-Duterte vote

Sol Iglesias, East Asia Forum (February 16, 2022): Is it ‘back to the future’ for Philippine politics under Marcos Jr?

Neil Jerome Morales and Karen Lema, Reuters (February 16, 2022): Philippines’ Pacquiao to fight drugs ‘the right way’ if elected president

CNN Philippines (February 16, 2022): ‘Bravo! Let women do it!’: Cher grabs PH netizens’ attention after Leni Robredo tweet

Christia Marie Ramos, Inquirer Philippines (February 15, 2022): Nearly 600 priests, nuns, brothers back Robredo, Pangilinan candidacies

Cliff Venzon, Nikkei Asia (February 13, 2022): Marcos-Duterte alliance confirms lead in Philippine election poll

Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022, followed by General Elections

Several sets of elections could take place in Nepal within the next year. Local elections have been set for May 13.

Nepal’s politics remain turbulent following the 1996-2006 civil war waged by Maoists. Nepal had planned to hold snap elections for the lower house in November 2021, following a protracted political crisis, but now the snap elections have been cancelled, and the current thinking is that the parliamentary elections will take place when they are due in 2023. For background: in December 2020, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. The government subsequently lost a confidence vote, sparking snap polls. However, the courts reversed the decision.

Nepal sits in the strategically-important Himalayas, and is a focus of competition between India and China. Although former prime minister KP Sharma Oli brought Nepal closer to China, his replacement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who assumed office in July 2021, is seen as favoring closer ties to India. More

Binod Ghimire, Kathmandu Post (February 17, 2022): Supreme Court accepts petition challenging date of local level elections: The court had earlier refused to register the petition, which argues that May 13 polls will deprive thousands of elected representatives of their right to serve for full five years.

Bhadra Sharma, New York Times (February 14, 2022): Nepal’s Chief Justice Is Suspended, Deepening Political Chaos: Accusations and a possible ouster could aggravate divisions that have paralyzed much of the Nepal government for months.

Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021. In the last general elections, in 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party won in a surprise result, after trailing in pre-election polls. More

Michael E. Miller and Frances Vinali, Washington Post (February 17, 2022): An alleged Chinese interference plot stirs fears — and smears — ahead of Australian elections

Reuters (February 16, 2022): U.S. reassured of Australian alliance regardless of election outcome – U.S. official

AFP (February 15, 2022): Chinese-Australian billionaire denies trying to influence election on behalf of foreign power

Hong Kong Chief Executive Election: May 8, 2022 (indirect)

Hong Kong held elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.

In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect. 

On May 8, 2022 (delayed from March), an Election Committee consisting of 1463 people – primarily pro-Beijing politicians and business figures – will choose the Chief Executive. Incumbent Carrie Lam is eligible to run for a second term, but it is unclear whether she will, and the process has been characterized by a lack of transparency and a heavy hand from Beijing. More

Reuters (February 18, 2022): Hong Kong leader election postponed as city battles COVID surge

Natalie Wong, South China Morning Post (February 14, 2022): Hong Kong chief executive race: is Beijing keen to see a no-contest election, Macau style?

Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)

Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”

The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

Tara Abhasakun, The Thaiger (February 17, 2022): Cambodia delays internet gateway activists say would “devastate” free expression

UCA News (February 15, 2022): Crackdown threats hang over Cambodia’s local elections

Kyodo News Agency (February 15, 2022): Japan foreign minister tells Cambodia to hold 2023 election in a democratic way

Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023

India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)

South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022

Malaysia, Early State Elections in Johor: March 12, 2022

Timor-Leste Presidential Election: March 19, 2022

Australia, South Australia State Election: March 19, 2022

Nepal General Elections: Spring 2022 (expected – due by March 2023, but early elections likely)

Philippines Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: May 9, 2022

Nepal Local Elections: May 13, 2022

Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)

Papua New Guinea Parliamentary and Local Elections: June 25-July 8, 2022

Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022

Japan House of Councillors Elections: July 25, 2022 (half of upper house at stake)

Vanuatu Presidential Election: July 2022 (due – indirect election, largely ceremonial role)

Australia, Tasmania State Elections: By Mid-2022

Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)

Japan, Gubernatorial Election in Okinawa: September 2022 (due)

New Zealand Local Elections: October 2022 (due)

Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)

Taiwan Local Elections: November 26, 2022

India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: November 2022 (due)

Australia, South Australia Local Elections; November 11, 2022

Australia, Victoria State Elections: November 26, 2022

India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)

India, State Elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland: February 2023 (due)

Thailand General Elections: By March 23, 2023 (earlier elections possible)

Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023

Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 2023

Malaysia General Elections and State Elections: May 2023 (due – general elections likely to be called earlier)

India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 30, 2023 (due)

Burma Parliamentary Elections: By August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup)

Maldives Presidential Election: September 2023 (due)

Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)

Singapore Presidential Election: September 2023 (expected – largely ceremonial role)

New Zealand General Elections: October 2023 (expected – due by January 2024)

Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.


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