February 19, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Journalists’ Park in Bogotá, Colombia. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Leandro Neumann Ciuffo (CC BY 2.0)
Upcoming Americas Elections
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the current frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. Ingrid Betancourt, a former FARC hostage who was kidnapped while running for president in 2002, is also running, on a platform of national reconciliation. She had originally planned to run in the center coalition’s primary, but since withdrew from the coalition and announced that she would be an independent candidate.
The country has been rocked by protests beginning in April 2021. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests grew violent, leading to dozens of deaths.
Inés San Martin, Crux (February 18, 2022): Ahead of national elections, Colombian bishops call for strengthening democracy
Oscar Medina, Bloomberg (February 17, 2022): Colombian Presidential Front-Runner Petro Sees Approval Rating Gain
Theodore Khan and Silvana Amaya, Americas Quarterly (February 16, 2022): Does the Colombian Center Stand a Chance?
Holly K. Sonneland, AS/COA (February 16, 2022): Poll Update: Colombia’s Presidential Race ahead of March Vote
Tony Lloyd, Times of London (February 15, 2022): Colombia deserves free, fair and peaceful elections
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
Reuters (February 16, 2022): Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil’s October election – poll
Gustavo Ribiero, The Bazilian Report (February 16, 2022 – podcast): How dreamy is Lula’s dream team?
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Chile holds a referendum on a new constitution in 2022. This follows last year’s presidential and legislative elections. Far-left socialist former student leader Gabriel Boric defeated Jose Antonio Kast, a far-right legislator, in the runoff. Although results of the July 18 presidential primaries seemed to indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation, the center-right candidate from incumbent president Sebastián Pińera’s coalition did not even make the runoff. However, the legislative elections were a bit more complicated. Piñera’s Chile Podemos Más coalition will have the most seats in the Senate, and the Chamber of Deputies is split nearly evenly between right and left-leaning members. These results will potentially constrain Boric’s ability to pursue a far-left agenda. All newly-elected officials take office in March 2022.
The 2021 elections took place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues.
Stratfor (February 18, 2022): Chile: Constitutional Convention Approves First Norms, Advances Social Causes
Fabian Cambero, Reuters (February 15, 2022): Chile starts debate of new Constitution amid jitters over mining, Congress plans
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed
Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum). Prime Minister Ariel Henry is now leading the country, and has said he will hold elections, but has not specified a date.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald (February 18, 2022): U.N. Security Council tells Haiti to end political gridlock, start planning elections
Past Americas Elections
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Barbados held snap parliamentary elections on January 19, a year early, following a decision made in September 2021 to remove the British monarch as head of state and become a republic. The incumbent center-left Barbados Labor Party (BLP, nicknamed the “Bees”) won in a landslide (after winning all 30 seats in the last elections). Prime Minister Mia Mottley will remain in office.
Previously, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP, “Dems”) held power for 10 years. The DLP is seen as being to the left of the BLP, having been founded by a group that broke away in 1955 (the BLP was founded in 1938). However, politics in Barbados tends to be driven by personalities.
Robert Looney, World Politics Review (February 18, 2022): Barbados’ Decision to Become a Republic Had Nothing to Do With China
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras held presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidential race.
These elections took place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Some feared post-election turmoil this year, but Nasry Asfura, the National Party’s candidate, conceded.
Marlon González and Christopher Sherman, AP (February 15, 2022): US asks Honduras to arrest, extradite ex-President Hernández
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
The next presidential election is due in 2024, but some opposition figures hope it will happen early.
International Crisis Group (February 17, 2022): Overcoming the Global Rift on Venezuela
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
AP (February 18, 2022): U.S. considers expelling Nicaragua from trade pact over crackdowns: Nicaragua has been holding what the U.S. considers daily show trials against antigovernment activists who were rounded up ahead of last fall’s elections.
AFP/Al Jazeera (February 18, 2022): Calls grow for Nicaragua to release jailed opposition figures
Yubelka Mendoza and Maria Abi-Habib, New York Times (February 14, 2022): Nicaragua Seizes Universities, Inching Toward Dictatorship
Bolivia General Election Re-Run: October 18, 2020
Bolivia held a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him.
Subsequently, Bolivia held local and regional elections in March and April, 2021. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
AFP (February 14, 2022): ICC rejects Bolivia claims against Morales
Russia and China in the Americas
Jorge G. Castañeda, CNN (February 18, 2022): China and Russia want to surf Latin America’s ‘pink tide.’ But it’s not so simple
Kate Linthicum, Los Angeles Times (February 17, 2022): In Latin America’s new Cold War, will China lift up autocrats?
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022
Costa Rica Presidential Runoff: April 3, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022
Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)
Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022
Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)
Ecuador Regional Elections: February 5, 2023
Jamaica Local Elections: By February 2023
Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Americas This Week: February 19, 2022
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Last Updated: March 3, 2022 by 21votes
February 19, 2022
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the current frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. Ingrid Betancourt, a former FARC hostage who was kidnapped while running for president in 2002, is also running, on a platform of national reconciliation. She had originally planned to run in the center coalition’s primary, but since withdrew from the coalition and announced that she would be an independent candidate.
The country has been rocked by protests beginning in April 2021. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests grew violent, leading to dozens of deaths.
Inés San Martin, Crux (February 18, 2022): Ahead of national elections, Colombian bishops call for strengthening democracy
Oscar Medina, Bloomberg (February 17, 2022): Colombian Presidential Front-Runner Petro Sees Approval Rating Gain
Theodore Khan and Silvana Amaya, Americas Quarterly (February 16, 2022): Does the Colombian Center Stand a Chance?
Holly K. Sonneland, AS/COA (February 16, 2022): Poll Update: Colombia’s Presidential Race ahead of March Vote
Tony Lloyd, Times of London (February 15, 2022): Colombia deserves free, fair and peaceful elections
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula.
As Latin America’s biggest economy, Brazil’s politics have an impact on the entire region and – increasingly – on the world stage. More
Reuters (February 16, 2022): Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil’s October election – poll
Gustavo Ribiero, The Bazilian Report (February 16, 2022 – podcast): How dreamy is Lula’s dream team?
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Chile holds a referendum on a new constitution in 2022. This follows last year’s presidential and legislative elections. Far-left socialist former student leader Gabriel Boric defeated Jose Antonio Kast, a far-right legislator, in the runoff. Although results of the July 18 presidential primaries seemed to indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation, the center-right candidate from incumbent president Sebastián Pińera’s coalition did not even make the runoff. However, the legislative elections were a bit more complicated. Piñera’s Chile Podemos Más coalition will have the most seats in the Senate, and the Chamber of Deputies is split nearly evenly between right and left-leaning members. These results will potentially constrain Boric’s ability to pursue a far-left agenda. All newly-elected officials take office in March 2022.
The 2021 elections took place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues.
Stratfor (February 18, 2022): Chile: Constitutional Convention Approves First Norms, Advances Social Causes
Fabian Cambero, Reuters (February 15, 2022): Chile starts debate of new Constitution amid jitters over mining, Congress plans
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed
Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum). Prime Minister Ariel Henry is now leading the country, and has said he will hold elections, but has not specified a date.
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald (February 18, 2022): U.N. Security Council tells Haiti to end political gridlock, start planning elections
Past Americas Elections
Barbados Snap Parliamentary Elections: January 19, 2022
Barbados held snap parliamentary elections on January 19, a year early, following a decision made in September 2021 to remove the British monarch as head of state and become a republic. The incumbent center-left Barbados Labor Party (BLP, nicknamed the “Bees”) won in a landslide (after winning all 30 seats in the last elections). Prime Minister Mia Mottley will remain in office.
Previously, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP, “Dems”) held power for 10 years. The DLP is seen as being to the left of the BLP, having been founded by a group that broke away in 1955 (the BLP was founded in 1938). However, politics in Barbados tends to be driven by personalities.
Robert Looney, World Politics Review (February 18, 2022): Barbados’ Decision to Become a Republic Had Nothing to Do With China
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras held presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries. Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidential race.
These elections took place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Some feared post-election turmoil this year, but Nasry Asfura, the National Party’s candidate, conceded.
Marlon González and Christopher Sherman, AP (February 15, 2022): US asks Honduras to arrest, extradite ex-President Hernández
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela held regional and local elections on November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties participated in the November 21 elections.
The next presidential election is due in 2024, but some opposition figures hope it will happen early.
International Crisis Group (February 17, 2022): Overcoming the Global Rift on Venezuela
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua held general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, sought and won another term after jailing his strongest opponents. Under Ortega’s rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates were arrested before the election, including Cristiana Chamorro, who was seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
AP (February 18, 2022): U.S. considers expelling Nicaragua from trade pact over crackdowns: Nicaragua has been holding what the U.S. considers daily show trials against antigovernment activists who were rounded up ahead of last fall’s elections.
AFP/Al Jazeera (February 18, 2022): Calls grow for Nicaragua to release jailed opposition figures
Yubelka Mendoza and Maria Abi-Habib, New York Times (February 14, 2022): Nicaragua Seizes Universities, Inching Toward Dictatorship
Bolivia General Election Re-Run: October 18, 2020
Bolivia held a rerun of the 2019 annulled general elections that took place on October 18, 2020 in which socialist Luis Arce won the presidency. Leftist firebrand Evo Morales has returned to the country to lead his party, although apparently not every member of his party loves him.
Subsequently, Bolivia held local and regional elections in March and April, 2021. Opposition candidates won the mayoral elections in 8 out of 10 of Bolivia’s biggest cities. These elections happened amid political tension over the arrest of former interim president Jeanine Anez. More
AFP (February 14, 2022): ICC rejects Bolivia claims against Morales
Russia and China in the Americas
Jorge G. Castañeda, CNN (February 18, 2022): China and Russia want to surf Latin America’s ‘pink tide.’ But it’s not so simple
Kate Linthicum, Los Angeles Times (February 17, 2022): In Latin America’s new Cold War, will China lift up autocrats?
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2022 and 2023
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
St. Martin and St. Barts Territorial Elections: March 20 and 27, 2022
Costa Rica Presidential Runoff: April 3, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Canada, Ontario Provincial Elections: June 2, 2022
Mexico State and Local Elections in Some States: June 5, 2022
Canada, Resort Village Elections in Manitoba: July 22, 2022
Chile Constitutional Referendum: Third Quarter 2022
Brazil General Elections (Presidential, Legislative, State, and Local): October 2, 2022
Peru Local and Regional Elections: October 2, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Ontario: October 24, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Manitoba: October 26, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Prince Edward Island: November 7, 2022
Canada: Local Elections in Saskatchewan: November 9, 2022 (Rural Municipalities – even number divisions)
Canada: Local Elections in Northwest Territories: December 12, 2022
Guyana Local Elections: Overdue (date not set yet – preparations being made)
Ecuador Regional Elections: February 5, 2023
Jamaica Local Elections: By February 2023
Grenada General Elections: By March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidential and Legislative Elections: April 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 2023 (expected)
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 2023 (expected)
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October or November 2023 (due)
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: By 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela