November 6, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A street in Granada, Nicaragua. Nicaragua’s November 7 election has been called a sham. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Milei Vencel (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Upcoming Americas Elections
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
José de Córdoba, Wall Street Journal (November 6, 2021): Nicaragua Veers to Dictatorship as President Holds Election the U.S. Calls ‘Sham’
Daniel F. Runde, The Hill (November 6, 2021): U.S. should reject Sunday’s farce elections in Nicaragua
Stefano Pozzebon, CNN (November 5, 2021): Nicaragua’s looming election poses two challenges to the rest of the region
Octavio Enríquez, Confidencial (October 30, 2021): The challenge facing Nicaragua’s opposition: to reorganize without freedom and under persecution
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Eliana Raszewski, Reuters (November 5, 2021): Argentina’s Peronists face painful defeat in midterms, polls show
The Economist (October 30, 2021): Argentina’s government has fixed the price of 1,432 products: But Peronism’s penchant for controls is holding the country back
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Eduardo Thomson and Jonathan Gilbert, Bloomberg (October 31, 2021): Conservative Candidate Cements Lead in Chile’s Presidential Race
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations (November 5, 2021): Lessons from the Failure of Democracy Promotion in Venezuela
Radina Gigova and Gerardo Lemos, CNN (November 4, 2021): ICC to investigate allegations of crimes against humanity in Venezuela
Fabiola Zerpa, Andreina Itriago Acosta, and Ezra Fieser, Bloomberg (November 3, 2021): Guaido’s Reign in Danger as Venezuelan Opposition Moves to Ditch Him
Joshua Goodman, AP (November 1, 2021): Miami prosecutors partly dismiss charges against Maduro ally
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras holds presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries.
These elections are taking place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Castro is running again this year, after winning the LIBRE party primary.
On the geopolitical front, Honduras is one of the few countries that maintains formal diplomatic relations Taiwan, but Beijing has been pressuring politicians to change that. LIBRE has said that it will switch its recognition to Beijing if it wins these elections. More
Marlon González, AP (November 4, 2021): Honduras presidential candidate arrested
Matthew Strong, Taiwan News (November 3, 2021): Taiwan vice foreign minister optimistic about ties with Honduras
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots recently. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Americas Quarterly (November 4, 2021): Meet the Candidates: Colombia
Oscar Medina, Bloomberg (November 2, 2021): Colombian Candidate Feared by Investors Leads Presidential Poll
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Oliver Stuenkel, Foreign Affairs (November 1, 2021): Democracy Is Dying in Brazil
Editorial Board, Financial Times (November 1, 2021): Jair Bolsonaro’s faults go well beyond the pandemic
Kate Marino, Axios (November 1, 2021): Double-digit inflation hits Brazil
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed
Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Patrick Duddy, The National Interest (November 3, 2021): Can America Live with a Failed Haitian State Next Door?
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans protested in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Patrick Oppmann, CNN (November 4, 2021): Cuba is cracking down on critics. This unlikely dissident says he’ll protest anyway
Past Americas Elections
Peru Presidential Elections: April 11, 2021 and June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections this year. These elections came on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori alleged fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Marco Aquino and Marcelo Rochabrun, Reuters (November 4, 2021): Peru’s Congress confirms new moderate left Cabinet
El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021
El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More
Human Rights Watch (November 1, 2021): El Salvador: Legislature Deepens Democratic Backsliding
Regional Analysis
Federico Rivas Molina and Carlos Salinas Maldonado, El País (November 4, 2021): Latin America prepares for frantic month of elections in November
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021 (delays possible)
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Americas This Week: November 6, 2021
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Last Updated: November 17, 2021 by 21votes
November 6, 2021
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
Several opposition candidates have been arrested, including Cristiana Chamorro, seen by many as the opposition’s best chance of ousting Ortega (in fact, her mother, Violeta Chamorro, beat Ortega in the 1990 election, becoming Nicaragua’s first – and to date only – female president and ending 11 years of Sandinista rule).
José de Córdoba, Wall Street Journal (November 6, 2021): Nicaragua Veers to Dictatorship as President Holds Election the U.S. Calls ‘Sham’
Daniel F. Runde, The Hill (November 6, 2021): U.S. should reject Sunday’s farce elections in Nicaragua
Stefano Pozzebon, CNN (November 5, 2021): Nicaragua’s looming election poses two challenges to the rest of the region
Octavio Enríquez, Confidencial (October 30, 2021): The challenge facing Nicaragua’s opposition: to reorganize without freedom and under persecution
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021 (postponed from October)
Argentina is due to hold midterm legislative elections on November 14, along with a few sets of provincial elections on various dates. Although most of the country’s 23 provinces hold their elections at the same time as presidential elections (which last took place in 2019 and are due again in 2023), a few are due to hold elections this year.
Argentina’s 2021 elections – both provincial and legislative – are happening in the context of an economic crisis, which the leftist government and COVID-19 have exacerbated. In the 2019 presidential election, Peronist Alberto Fernández defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri (the first defeat for an Argentine incumbent president), running on a ticket with populist firebrand Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner herself did not run for president because she was facing criminal charges related to misconduct during her time in office. Frente de Todos, the party formed by Kirchner and Fernández, currently holds a majority in the Senate and is the biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house.
Eliana Raszewski, Reuters (November 5, 2021): Argentina’s Peronists face painful defeat in midterms, polls show
The Economist (October 30, 2021): Argentina’s government has fixed the price of 1,432 products: But Peronism’s penchant for controls is holding the country back
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Chile holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following presidential primaries on July 18 that produced surprise results ). These elections follow the May 2021 local elections, and importantly, elections to the Constitutional Assembly. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings. Moreover, the conservatives failed to secure even one-third of the Constitutional Assembly.
The results of the July 18 presidential primaries indicate that voters seem to want a return to moderation. Center-right Sebastian Sichel prevailed over candidates who were both more established and more to the right. Similarly, on the left, communist Daniel Jadue, a darling of the international left-wing commentariat, lost to Gabriel Boric, a socialist former student leader. A number of other candidates could also enter the race, leaving the result far from clear.
These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. More
Eduardo Thomson and Jonathan Gilbert, Bloomberg (October 31, 2021): Conservative Candidate Cements Lead in Chile’s Presidential Race
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted; however, opposition parties appear willing to participate in the elections this year.
Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations (November 5, 2021): Lessons from the Failure of Democracy Promotion in Venezuela
Radina Gigova and Gerardo Lemos, CNN (November 4, 2021): ICC to investigate allegations of crimes against humanity in Venezuela
Fabiola Zerpa, Andreina Itriago Acosta, and Ezra Fieser, Bloomberg (November 3, 2021): Guaido’s Reign in Danger as Venezuelan Opposition Moves to Ditch Him
Joshua Goodman, AP (November 1, 2021): Miami prosecutors partly dismiss charges against Maduro ally
Honduras General Elections: November 28, 2021
Honduras holds presidential and legislative elections on November 28, 2021, following the March 14 primaries.
These elections are taking place in the context of polarization. The 2017 elections, which saw the controversial re-election of President Juan Orlando Hernández from the conservative National Party, were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud. Hernández defeated Xiomara Castro, the wife of leftist former president Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in 2009. Castro is running again this year, after winning the LIBRE party primary.
On the geopolitical front, Honduras is one of the few countries that maintains formal diplomatic relations Taiwan, but Beijing has been pressuring politicians to change that. LIBRE has said that it will switch its recognition to Beijing if it wins these elections. More
Marlon González, AP (November 4, 2021): Honduras presidential candidate arrested
Matthew Strong, Taiwan News (November 3, 2021): Taiwan vice foreign minister optimistic about ties with Honduras
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022 and Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. One of the frontrunners to replace him is former left-wing guerilla Gustavo Petro, who placed second in 2018. The country has been rocked by riots recently. The proximate cause was a tax bill, but the protests have grown – and grown violent – and dozens have died.
Americas Quarterly (November 4, 2021): Meet the Candidates: Colombia
Oscar Medina, Bloomberg (November 2, 2021): Colombian Candidate Feared by Investors Leads Presidential Poll
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Brazil holds general elections in October 2022. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist firebrand president, is up for re-election. Former president Lula da Silva, himself a populist firebrand of the left-wing variety, will run against him. The country remains deeply polarized between right and left, although some third-way candidates plan to challenge both Bolsonaro and Lula. More
Oliver Stuenkel, Foreign Affairs (November 1, 2021): Democracy Is Dying in Brazil
Editorial Board, Financial Times (November 1, 2021): Jair Bolsonaro’s faults go well beyond the pandemic
Kate Marino, Axios (November 1, 2021): Double-digit inflation hits Brazil
Haiti Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Delayed
Haiti had planned to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year in the midst of political and humanitarian crises, but the elections have now been delayed.
Haiti’s political crisis went into overdrive on July 7 with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse had been governing by decree for over a year and stood accused by many of attempting to consolidate power through a controversial constitutional change (Moïse ultimately postponed the referendum).
Allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election, sparking a political crisis that remains ongoing. Some have called for the upcoming elections to be delayed, but the interim government has said they will take place this year (although the date could be moved, especially in the wake of a deadly earthquake on August 14 that left over 1,000 people dead).
Patrick Duddy, The National Interest (November 3, 2021): Can America Live with a Failed Haitian State Next Door?
Cuba Protests: July 2021
Cuba is run by a repressive communist regime. Although the country technically holds elections (the next parliamentary elections are due in 2023), they are neither free nor fair, and have been rigged to as to be unable to result in a change in government. However, in July 2021, Cubans protested in numbers not seen in over 30 years, calling for freedom.
Patrick Oppmann, CNN (November 4, 2021): Cuba is cracking down on critics. This unlikely dissident says he’ll protest anyway
Past Americas Elections
Peru Presidential Elections: April 11, 2021 and June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections this year. These elections came on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff pitted self-described Marxist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration.
Castillo won the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. Fujimori alleged fraud, but international observers largely dismissed that allegation. More
Marco Aquino and Marcelo Rochabrun, Reuters (November 4, 2021): Peru’s Congress confirms new moderate left Cabinet
El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021
El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More
Human Rights Watch (November 1, 2021): El Salvador: Legislature Deepens Democratic Backsliding
Regional Analysis
Federico Rivas Molina and Carlos Salinas Maldonado, El País (November 4, 2021): Latin America prepares for frantic month of elections in November
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2021 and 2022
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Chile Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021 (delays possible)
Costa Rica Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 6, 2022
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Peru, Venezuela