Upcoming Middle East Elections
Tunisia Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019 and parliamentary elections were October 6, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.
The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns linger about the democratic process. Because Karoui remains in jail, he is unable to speak directly to voters or to debate Saied, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort.
Presidential Runoff
Bouazza Ben Bouazza, AP: “A leading Tunisian presidential candidate has announced he will stop campaigning ahead of the final round of elections October 13 because it would create an unfair advantage against his opponent, media magnate Nabil Karoui, who has been imprisoned by authorities since August. Tunisian state news agency TAP said Saturday that Kais Saied cited ‘ethical reasons’ for stopping any active campaigning.”
Parliamentary Elections
Sharan Grewal, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Winners and losers of Tunisia’s parliamentary elections: Exit polls suggest a narrow victory for the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, followed closely by newcomer Qalb Tounes.”
Simon Speakman Cordall, The National (UAE): “Tunisia election front runners rule out alliance to govern: Ennahda and Qalb Tounes each claim victory although official results are not expected until Wednesday.”
Jihen Laghmari, Bloomberg: “Tunisia’s moderate Islamist party is getting a taste of the difficulties of putting together a governing coalition as the politically polarized country awaits the results of parliamentary elections. Ennahda, which an exit poll suggested narrowly won the most seats in Sunday’s vote, has pledged a ‘policy of partnership’ as it tries to assemble a majority in the 217-member parliament. But with its main rival, Heart of Tunisia, unwilling to collaborate, the once-outlawed party would have to build a fragile patchwork with lower-profile candidates that will struggle to govern effectively.”
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
Francisco Serrano, Foreign Policy: “After 8 Months on the Streets, Protesters in Algeria Aren’t Giving Up: Citizens have been promised new elections. But they are looking for more fundamental change.”
Reuters: “Algerians rally against presidential election backed by army”
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (further delays likely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 99.4 million
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Vivian Yee and Nada Rashwan, New York Times: “Egypt’s Harsh Crackdown Quashes Protest Movement”
Al-Monitor: “Egyptian state officials, members of parliament and the country’s pro-government media are fervently working to contain the anger on the streets and prevent a recent wave of dissent from escalating into a full-blown political crisis. In attempts to appease disgruntled Egyptians who took to the streets on two consecutive Fridays last month to demand the resignation of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the authorities have promised a set of policy changes, including reductions in prices of basic commodities and an easing of restrictions on the media.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Vanda Felbab-Brown and Adrianna Pita, Brookings Institution (podcast): “What’s driving anti-government protests in Iraq?”
Reuters: “One of Iraq’s most influential clerics called on Friday [October 5] for the government to resign as the death toll rose to 93 in the violent national protests against official corruption that have now entered their fifth day. Moqtada al-Sadr, a populist political leader who has a huge following on the Iraqi street, said new elections should be held soon.”
Ranj Alaaldin, New York Times: “How to Save Iraq The prime minister has improved relations with the Sunni minority and the Kurds. But he can’t meet the demands of the protesters without fixing the economy.”
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian: “A head-on confrontation with institutionalised corruption among Iraqi politicians is the only way to address the protests gripping the country, a senior adviser to the country’s beleaguered prime minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, has warned.”
James Phillips and Nicole Robinson, Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “Protesters in Iraq Have Legitimate Grievances”
Edward Yeranian, VOA: “Iraqi Leaders Seek Talks with Demonstrators to Diffuse Protests”
Palestinian Authority Legislative – Long Overdue (date could be set soon)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank)
Population: West Bank – 2.8 million; 1.8 million (Gaza)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.
Asharq Al-Awsat: “Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has formed a committee from Fatah Central Committee to discuss and follow up on the general elections in the Palestinian territories.”
Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor: “Abbas strategically times his call for Palestinian elections”
Nour Abu Eisha, Andalou Agency (Turkey): “Hamas calls for concurrent parliament, presidency polls: Hamas calls on Palestinian president to accept eight factions initiative announced two weeks ago”
Past Middle East Elections
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.
The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote, although the violence was less severe than had been feared. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts won’t be available until mid-October, with final results expected in early November.
Rod Nickel and Hamid Shalizi, Reuters: “Despite pulling off a safer presidential election than expected, Afghanistan looks headed for a prolonged period of political uncertainty, with the two front-runners claiming victory before ballots are tallied and signaling they would not accept defeat.”
Ayesha Tanzeem, VOA: “In One Afghan Province, the Taliban Safe-Guarded the Elections….Local journalists credited the move in Kunar to the Taliban’s clash with IS in the area. Kabul-based political activist Faiz Mohammad Zaland, generally considered pro-Taliban, called it a ‘rare geographical phenomena — an effort by a local Taliban faction to break IS’s hold on an area and establish its own writ.’”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.
September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government, either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel Election Results: As New Knesset Sworn In, President Rivlin Says ‘Populism Was Shown a Red Card’: Speaking at the opening ceremony of the 22nd Knesset, Rivlin says ‘there are moments in which the president is required to intervene and put the system back on track’”
Aron Heller, AP: “With a simple tweet, Gideon Saar did what no Israeli politician from the ruling conservative party has done in more than a decade – openly challenge its chief, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The brazen move against the long-serving Israeli leader has solidly positioned the 52-year-old Saar as the Likud party’s leading candidate to replace Netanyahu, who is fighting for his survival amid a pending corruption indictment and post-election political paralysis.”
The Economist: “Binyamin Netanyahu’s last chance to avoid indictment: Will the prime minister’s allies abandon him if charges are brought?”
Mehul Srivastava, Financial Times: “Benjamin Netanyahu accepts idea of ‘interim’ PM if indicted in office: Four-time premier’s lawyers talking with prosecutors over potential charges.”
Middle East This Week – October 8, 2019
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Last Updated: October 18, 2019 by 21votes
October 8, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Tunisia Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019 and parliamentary elections were October 6, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.
The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns linger about the democratic process. Because Karoui remains in jail, he is unable to speak directly to voters or to debate Saied, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort.
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (further delays likely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 99.4 million
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Palestinian Authority Legislative – Long Overdue (date could be set soon)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank)
Population: West Bank – 2.8 million; 1.8 million (Gaza)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.
The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote, although the violence was less severe than had been feared. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts won’t be available until mid-October, with final results expected in early November.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.
September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government, either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Tunisia Presidential Second Round – October 13, 2019 (first round was September 15, 2019 and parliamentary elections were October 6, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president this year and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways. Karoui has argued for a stronger presidency, while Saied supports decentralization. However, Saied is a social conservative, and has the backing of Ennadha.
The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, some concerns linger about the democratic process. Because Karoui remains in jail, he is unable to speak directly to voters or to debate Saied, a fact with which even Saied himself has expressed discomfort.
Presidential Runoff
Bouazza Ben Bouazza, AP: “A leading Tunisian presidential candidate has announced he will stop campaigning ahead of the final round of elections October 13 because it would create an unfair advantage against his opponent, media magnate Nabil Karoui, who has been imprisoned by authorities since August. Tunisian state news agency TAP said Saturday that Kais Saied cited ‘ethical reasons’ for stopping any active campaigning.”
Parliamentary Elections
Sharan Grewal, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Winners and losers of Tunisia’s parliamentary elections: Exit polls suggest a narrow victory for the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, followed closely by newcomer Qalb Tounes.”
Simon Speakman Cordall, The National (UAE): “Tunisia election front runners rule out alliance to govern: Ennahda and Qalb Tounes each claim victory although official results are not expected until Wednesday.”
Jihen Laghmari, Bloomberg: “Tunisia’s moderate Islamist party is getting a taste of the difficulties of putting together a governing coalition as the politically polarized country awaits the results of parliamentary elections. Ennahda, which an exit poll suggested narrowly won the most seats in Sunday’s vote, has pledged a ‘policy of partnership’ as it tries to assemble a majority in the 217-member parliament. But with its main rival, Heart of Tunisia, unwilling to collaborate, the once-outlawed party would have to build a fragile patchwork with lower-profile candidates that will struggle to govern effectively.”
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of December 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
Francisco Serrano, Foreign Policy: “After 8 Months on the Streets, Protesters in Algeria Aren’t Giving Up: Citizens have been promised new elections. But they are looking for more fundamental change.”
Reuters: “Algerians rally against presidential election backed by army”
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (further delays likely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 99.4 million
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Vivian Yee and Nada Rashwan, New York Times: “Egypt’s Harsh Crackdown Quashes Protest Movement”
Al-Monitor: “Egyptian state officials, members of parliament and the country’s pro-government media are fervently working to contain the anger on the streets and prevent a recent wave of dissent from escalating into a full-blown political crisis. In attempts to appease disgruntled Egyptians who took to the streets on two consecutive Fridays last month to demand the resignation of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the authorities have promised a set of policy changes, including reductions in prices of basic commodities and an easing of restrictions on the media.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Vanda Felbab-Brown and Adrianna Pita, Brookings Institution (podcast): “What’s driving anti-government protests in Iraq?”
Reuters: “One of Iraq’s most influential clerics called on Friday [October 5] for the government to resign as the death toll rose to 93 in the violent national protests against official corruption that have now entered their fifth day. Moqtada al-Sadr, a populist political leader who has a huge following on the Iraqi street, said new elections should be held soon.”
Ranj Alaaldin, New York Times: “How to Save Iraq The prime minister has improved relations with the Sunni minority and the Kurds. But he can’t meet the demands of the protesters without fixing the economy.”
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian: “A head-on confrontation with institutionalised corruption among Iraqi politicians is the only way to address the protests gripping the country, a senior adviser to the country’s beleaguered prime minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, has warned.”
James Phillips and Nicole Robinson, Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “Protesters in Iraq Have Legitimate Grievances”
Edward Yeranian, VOA: “Iraqi Leaders Seek Talks with Demonstrators to Diffuse Protests”
Palestinian Authority Legislative – Long Overdue (date could be set soon)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank)
Population: West Bank – 2.8 million; 1.8 million (Gaza)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.
Asharq Al-Awsat: “Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has formed a committee from Fatah Central Committee to discuss and follow up on the general elections in the Palestinian territories.”
Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor: “Abbas strategically times his call for Palestinian elections”
Nour Abu Eisha, Andalou Agency (Turkey): “Hamas calls for concurrent parliament, presidency polls: Hamas calls on Palestinian president to accept eight factions initiative announced two weeks ago”
Past Middle East Elections
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election.
The election took place amid attacks by the Taliban, which had ordered Aghans not to vote, although the violence was less severe than had been feared. Turnout was low. Both major candidates – incumbent Ghani and main challenger Abdullah, claimed victory right after the election, but official preliminary vote counts won’t be available until mid-October, with final results expected in early November.
Rod Nickel and Hamid Shalizi, Reuters: “Despite pulling off a safer presidential election than expected, Afghanistan looks headed for a prolonged period of political uncertainty, with the two front-runners claiming victory before ballots are tallied and signaling they would not accept defeat.”
Ayesha Tanzeem, VOA: “In One Afghan Province, the Taliban Safe-Guarded the Elections….Local journalists credited the move in Kunar to the Taliban’s clash with IS in the area. Kabul-based political activist Faiz Mohammad Zaland, generally considered pro-Taliban, called it a ‘rare geographical phenomena — an effort by a local Taliban faction to break IS’s hold on an area and establish its own writ.’”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) the chance to try to form a government.
September’s recent election produced an equally inconclusive result. Israel’s president invited Netanyahu to make the first attempt to form a government, but his success is far from assured. If Netanyahu fails to form a government, either Gantz could form one or the country hold yet another election, the third in a year.
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel Election Results: As New Knesset Sworn In, President Rivlin Says ‘Populism Was Shown a Red Card’: Speaking at the opening ceremony of the 22nd Knesset, Rivlin says ‘there are moments in which the president is required to intervene and put the system back on track’”
Aron Heller, AP: “With a simple tweet, Gideon Saar did what no Israeli politician from the ruling conservative party has done in more than a decade – openly challenge its chief, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The brazen move against the long-serving Israeli leader has solidly positioned the 52-year-old Saar as the Likud party’s leading candidate to replace Netanyahu, who is fighting for his survival amid a pending corruption indictment and post-election political paralysis.”
The Economist: “Binyamin Netanyahu’s last chance to avoid indictment: Will the prime minister’s allies abandon him if charges are brought?”
Mehul Srivastava, Financial Times: “Benjamin Netanyahu accepts idea of ‘interim’ PM if indicted in office: Four-time premier’s lawyers talking with prosecutors over potential charges.”
The Year Ahead: Middle East Elections
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – highly unlikely to happen given ongoing civil war); Tunisia presidential runoff (October 13); Algeria presidential (December 12); Iran parliamentary (February); Iraq provincial (April 20); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah shake hands following the resolution of their dispute over the 2014 elections. Both have claimed victory in last month’s election, potentially setting up another conflict between the two.
Photo credit: U.S. Department of State (public domain)
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Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Tunisia