Africa This Week – October 7, 2019

October 7, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.

Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.

Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million

Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).

Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.

The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.

Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South – November 5, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million

A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.

Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.

Mauritius Legislative - November 7, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million

Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.

Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)

Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.

The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.

A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.

Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.

Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million

Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.

Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s  largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Namibia Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.5 million

Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, Swapo’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Swapo will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.

Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019 (delayed to 2020)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million

Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.

The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million

Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.

Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.

Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million

In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.

EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.

Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million

Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.

Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million

These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.

Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..

Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.

Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.

Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.

Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million

Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.

Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.

Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)

Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.

Uganda General - February 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million

President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.

Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).

For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate. Wine campaigned with the FDC candidate in a recent parliamentary by-election.

Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.

Upcoming Africa Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.

Anita Powell, VOA: “An escalating insurgency, attacks on political campaigners and a terrified population have set a worrying scene for Mozambique’s election on October 15. While the poll looks, on the surface, like a simple two-way contest between the long-ruling Frelimo party and the opposition Renamo party, analysts say it’s a complex situation for the Southern African nation.”

Cristina Krippahl, DW: “Growing violence in Mozambique on the eve of general elections has the country and the international community deeply worried. The reasons for the violence are manifold and not easy to tackle.”

AFP: “The head of Mozambique’s poll observer mission was shot dead on Monday [October 7] in a governing party stronghold, the latest killing in the run-up to next week’s elections, a monitoring group said. Gunmen fired several shots at Anastacio Matavele as he was driving away from a workshop in Xai-Xai, the capital of the southeastern Gaza province.”

Benedito Machava, African Arguments: “Mozambique’s tense elections: How we got here: After President Nyusi’s eventful first term, the ruling party’s credibility is arguably at an all-time low.”

Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million

Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).

Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.

The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.

Mpho Tebele, Southern Times (Namibia): “Election fever grips Botswana as Khama brothers fight from opposition corner”

Shoshana Kede, African Business: “For the first time, one of Africa’s oldest democracies may see power handed over to the opposition, replacing the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) that has run the southern African nation since independence.”

Duma Boko, Foreign Policy: “It’s Not Just Elephants That Are Under Attack in Botswana: The country’s government is rolling back wildlife protections and endangering media freedom and the rule of law.”

Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South – November 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million

A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.

Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.

Era Pinifolo, Malawi24: “The Malawi Electoral Commission MEC says it will register new voters for the forthcoming by elections. MEC will on November 5, 2019 conduct by elections in Lilongwe South Constituency and Matenje Ward in Kasungu North West Constituency.”

Al Jazeera (video interview): “Malawi’s President Mutharika: ‘The election was not rigged’: President Peter Mutharika discusses alleged election fraud, corruption and Chinese investment in the country.”

Mauritius Legislative – November 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million

Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.

Reuters: “Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth dissolved parliament on Sunday and said the Indian Ocean island would hold a general election on November 7. The country, a popular tourist destination and one of Africa’s most stable nations, holds elections every five years, with the last one in 2014.”

Muri Assunção, New York Daily News: “Activists in Mauritius seek to overturn anti-gay law that can lead to 5 years in jail”

Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)

Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.

The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.

A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.

Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.

Yomi Kazeem, Quartz: “The political calculus for Nigeria’s next presidential elections is kicking off three years early: A full three years before the next elections, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari has been forced to deny reports that he will be seeking a third term in 2023.”

Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million

Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.

Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s  largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Michael Chepkwony and Jacob Ngetich, The Standard (Kenya): “Raila, Mudavadi rivalry heats up as stakes rise in Kibra by-election”

Like Awich, The Star (Kenya): “Why Raila is not resting easy over Kibra: Former PM is fully involved literally coordinating the ODM campaign machine.”

Nereya Otieno, OkayAfrica: “Kenyan Youth Share Their Frustration With President Uhuru Kenyatta Using the #DearPresidentUhuru Hashtag: Social media has come alive today with #DearPresidentUhuru posts blasting the current government.”

Namibia Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.5 million

Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, Swapo’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Swapo will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.

Tiri Masawi, Southern Times (Namibia): “Electioneering has engulfed Namibia two months before the much anticipated presidential elections which will also decide parliamentary representation, depending on the percentage of votes garnered by participating political parties. As part of the preparations, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Advisory Council this week sent their fact finding team to the country to engage with various stakeholders which include government, political parties, civic societies and the media.”

Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019 (delayed to 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million

Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.

The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.

Jerry Bambi, Africa News’ The Morning Call (video): “Now, the long-delayed legislative polls that Chadian President Idriss Deby had vowed to hold by the end of the year are likely to take place in the first three months of 2020. The country’s election board said on Thursday that ‘the realistic time frame for holding legislative elections (is) the first quarter of 2020.’”

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million

Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.

Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.

BBC: “A military court in Cameroon has freed opposition leader Maurice Kamto, who had been in prison for nine months and facing charges of insurrection. His release, along with that of dozens of his supporters, comes as President Paul Biya is aiming to strike a more conciliatory tone.”

AFP: “Cameroon’s President Paul Biya on Friday announced he had ordered prosecutions to be dropped against ‘some’ opposition leaders, including a number from the main Movement for the Rebirth of Cameroon (MRC) led by his jailed rival Maurice Kamto. The move is the latest in a series of concessions from the 86-year-old leader, who is under intense international pressure over a sweeping crackdown on the opposition.”

Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Cameroon separatists said the release of more than 300 fighters ordered by President Paul Biya is not enough to stop the war that has killed at least 2,000 people in the central African state. Separatists said calm can only return if  leaders sentenced to life in prison are unconditionally freed. The president’s order came during a ‘national dialogue’ sponsored by the government this week.”

Reuters: “But Thursday’s move represented one of Biya’s largest concessions yet amid what has become a major threat to his near 40-year rule.”

Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million

In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.

EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.

Daniel Mumbere, AfricaNews: “Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed on Tuesday urged political parties in his home region to work together to serve the Oromo people. Abiy, who was representing his Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) at a meeting of political parties from the region, added that the ‘time when political parties work against each other should come to an end’.”

Belachew Mekuria, Addis Standard: “The prospect of a coalition government in Ethiopia is real: Lessons from the politics of compromise.”

Christian Science Monitor: “How a splintered country plans to mend”

The Economist: “Ethiopia’s most repressive state is reforming: The change in Somali Regional State offers an example for the country.”

Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million

Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea).

The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set. The election commission has proposed holding them on December 28, 2019, but the opposition says the date is not realistic.

AFP: “An opposition coalition in Guinea on Monday called for demonstrations from October 14 despite a government crackdown on protests after President Alpha Conde sparked speculation he would seek a controversial third term. Last month Conde, 81, called on the public to prepare for a referendum and elections, stirring talk that he was planning to overcome a constitutional ban on a third term in office.”

Human Rights Watch: “The government of Guinea has effectively banned street protests for more than a year, citing threats to public security, Human Rights Watch said today [October 3]. Local authorities have prohibited at least 20 political or other demonstrations. Security forces have tear gassed those who defy the ban, and arrested dozens of demonstrators.”

Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million

These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.

Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..

Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.

Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.

Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.

Jeune Afrique (in French): “Côte d’Ivoire: the new life of pro-Gbagbo forces: While the fate of Laurent Gbagbo is uncertain since Fatou Bensouda, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, has appealed his acquittal, forcing the former Ivorian president to stay in Brussels, many of the pillars of his regime have resumed activity.”

Vincent Duhem, The Africa Report: “Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa magnate who supports Bédié arrested: Jacques Mangoua, Vice President of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI), will be tried in court tomorrow October 3 after he was arrested on Monday evening in connection with the discovery of ammunition and about 40 machetes in his home.”

Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million

Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.

Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.

Antoine Galindo, The Africa Report: “Ghana’s financial sector crisis is now part of the election campaign”

Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)

Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.

Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Somalia’s partners are trusting the federal government and state administrations to deliver on the planned universal suffrage elections, warning the two levels of leadership that they could either make or break the historic polls. Speaking this past week at the fourth Somalia Partnership Forum in Mogadishu, the country’s donors and regional allies fronted ideas on how the country could hold one-person, one-vote elections by early 2021.”

Fred Oluoch, The Citizen (Tanzania): “Will Farmaajo break the one-term presidency jinx? Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who is running for re-election in 2021, is facing a number of challenges despite his relatively good performance.”

Paul D. Williams, Washington Post: “In Somalia, al-Shabab targeted U.S. and E.U. forces this week. Here’s what these troops are doing there.”

Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million

President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.

Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).

For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate. Wine campaigned with the FDC candidate in a recent parliamentary by-election.

Stephen Sorace, Fox News: “Uganda has warned that anyone who wears a red beret in support of pop star-turned-presidential challenger Bobi Wine could go to prison for life. The government last month declared that the red beret, which Wine has used as part of his ‘People Power’ movement, was ‘property of the state’ and those who wear or sell them would face prosecution under military law, Reuters reported.”

Peter Ford, Christian Science Monitor: “A rapper’s quest to be president: Bobi Wine wants to unseat Uganda’s entrenched ruler. Can he stir a youth revolution here and across Africa?”

Past Africa ElectionsBenin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Benin was previously a model democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and security forces opened fire on protesters.

Leanne de Bassompierre and Virgile Ahissou, Bloomberg: “Benin’s President Patrice Talon will host a national dialog with opposition parties to calm a political standoff that erupted after their exclusion from April elections. Some groups aren’t invited and one is threatening to boycott the event if certain prerequisites aren’t met.”

 

The Year Ahead: Africa Elections
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Botswana parliamentary (October 23); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – postponed, new date not set); Malawi parliamentary by-elections (November 5); Mauritius parliamentary (November 7); Kenya parliamentary by-election in Kibra (November 7); Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa state, plus Niger State local government (November 16); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Madagascar local (November 27); Guinea-Bissau presidential runoff (December 8); Cameroon parliamentary and local (early 2020 – postponed from October 2019); Comoros parliamentary (January); Togo presidential (April); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20);  Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)

 

Filipe Jacinto Nyusi campaigning in 2014. He won Mozambique’s 2014 presidential election, and looks likely to be re-elected this year, though observers question whether the vote will be fair. Photo credit: Flickr/Adrien Barbier (CC BY-SA 2.0)

 

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