Americas This Week – October 5, 2019

October 5, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Canada General – October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Uruguay General – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.

Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019 (delay highly likely)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (Possible legislative elections in January 2020 - ongoing political crisis)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion

Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million

Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.

The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.

Brazil General – October 7, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.

Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Daniel Ramos, Reuters: “Hundreds of thousands of protesters marched through the streets of Bolivia’s largest city, turning up heat on President Evo Morales as they voiced outrage over his government’s response to wildfires that have razed broad swaths of the country’s forests this year.”

Updated October 7, 2019

AP: “A series of memes that have gone viral in Bolivia show President Evo Morales combating raging forest fires with a toy water gun or a flame-thrower, while others superimpose his image on the original cast of the ‘Ghostbusters’ film. Many young Bolivians have used the memes to poke fun at South America’s longest-serving leftist leader and what they say was his delayed response to thousands of forest fires they blame on his push to develop areas with slash-and-burn agriculture.”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.

Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Kathryn Salam, Foreign Policy: “Will Trudeau Survive Canada’s Next Vote? The prime minister’s rise, fall, and possible rebirth.”

Kelsey Johnson and Moira Warburton, Reuters: “Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be renowned internationally for his youthful persona and social media savvy, but even before the embarrassment of his recent blackface makeup scandal there were concerns about the support he needs from younger voters to win re-election.”

BBC: “The leaders of Canada’s main parties clashed over the environment in the country’s first big election debate. The event in Quebec was the first time Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from the Liberal party, Conservative Andrew Scheer, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh and the Bloc Québécois’ Yves-Francois Blanchet had faced off.”

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

BN Americas: “In the months since August’s primary elections, for which the business-friendly candidate crafted a message of continued policy and economic recovery, Macri has changed his tune, opting for some soft populist policies and increasing social spending. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will pay off or create a sensation among voters that he has betrayed his own principles.”

Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes: “Argentina’s government, likely to be run by Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Kirchner (again) starting next year, wants to pay its debts. But the question is, can Argentina pay its debts? Will a Fernandez government be able to keep the lights on next year?”

Updated October 7, 2019

Juan Martinez, Rio Times (Brazil): “Russia and China Already Sounding out Alberto Fernandez’s Future Plans for Argentina: There has been a rapprochement to the candidate of the ‘Frente de Todos’; proposed infrastructure projects, loans, nuclear power plants, and trade indicate a strategy to isolate Argentina from the United States.”

Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.

Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.

Frances Jenner, Latin America Reports: “Voters in Uruguay dissatisfied with political status quo: Uruguayans are losing confidence in the center-left party after surges in violence and a failing education system.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Stephen Gill, Colombia Reports: “Municipalities at risk of fraud and violence during Colombia’s upcoming local elections dropped 25% compared to 2015, according to independent electoral observers. With local and regional elections set for the 27th, the Electoral Observation Mission (MOE) warned Tuesday that there is still significant risk of fraud and violence in 152 municipalities.”

Juila Zulver, The Guardian: “’Based in hatred’: violence against women standing in Colombia’s elections: Killing of Karina García reflects targeting of female contenders, amid mounting security concerns.”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019 (delay highly likely)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

AFP: “The United Nations called Thursday [October 3] for calm in crisis-wracked Haiti, eight days before the end of its police mission in the country. For more than a year, Haiti has been roiled by violent anti-corruption protests as the country sinks deeper into political crisis.”

DW: “Haiti: Thousands rally against president, clash with police: Thousands of protesters have marched through the Haitian capital in one of the largest rallies in an ongoing push to oust President Jovenel Moise. At least two people were shot amid unconfirmed reports of deaths.”

Dánica Coto, AP: “Amid logjam, Haiti asks: Will president or protesters yield?…. Despite the rarity of his public appearances, the embattled leader has given no indication that he will step down after nearly a month of demonstrations against corruption, spiraling inflation and dwindling supplies of food and gasoline.”

Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “A pro-government Haitian senator recently went on the radio and made an unexpected admission: The Haitian government, of which he is a part, runs on corruption. Even in a country that has become numbed to such allegations the acknowledgment was stunning.”

Updated October 7, 2019

Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has been one of Haiti’s most vocal supporters….But on Monday as Haiti entered a fourth week of paralysis over demands for President Jovenel Moïse to step down, Rubio said the U.S. has no role to play in the deepening crisis spurred by recurring fuel shortages and allegations of graft and mismanagement of the economy by Moïse.”

Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves (Guyana): “Granger constitutionally declares March 2, 2020 as general elections date”

Peru Presidential and Legislative – April 2021 (Possible legislative elections in January 2020 – ongoing political crisis)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion

Anatoly Kurmanaev and Andrea Zarate, New York Times: “President Martín Vizcarra of Peru ordered Congress to dissolve on Monday night, prompting lawmakers to try to suspend him and plunging the nation into uncertainty after a grinding, yearslong corruption crisis. Opposition lawmakers responded to the president’s decision by accusing Mr. Vizcarra of staging ‘a coup’ and moved swiftly to suspend him for 12 months. They nominated his vice president, Mercedes Aráoz, as the new acting head of state.”

Gideon Long, Financial Times: “In a day of high drama in the congress building in Lima and on the streets outside where thousands of people gathered to protest, Martín Vizcarra said he had made the decision because Congress had constantly blocked his attempts to pass anti-corruption legislation.”

Reuters: “Peru‘s worst political crisis in two decades threatens unrest in the world’s No.2 copper producer and one of the region’s most robust economies, and could bring lawmaking to a halt.”

Mitra Taj, Reuters: “A group of former lawmakers even tried to install Vizcarra’s second-in-command as an interim president, in a bizarre ceremony inside the dissolved Congress as protesters agitated outside. The bid failed when Vice President Mercedes Araoz abruptly renounced any claim to the presidency on Tuesday.”

The Economist: “Peru now looks headed towards congressional elections in January. What is not clear is whether this constitutional crackup will break the political deadlock or damage Peru’s democracy.”

Andrea Zarate and Nicholas Casey, New York Times: “How a Political Crisis Seized Peru: Boom Times, Corruption and Chaos at the Top”

Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million

Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.

The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.

Sabrina Martin, PanAm Post: “The Venezuelan National Assembly with an opposition majority approved a new agreement to a route that is not clearly established. It only refers to ‘free and fair’ elections in the South American country and bets on dialogue promoted by Norway.”

Past Elections
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.

Bryan Harris and Carolina Pulice, Financial Times: “Cult of Lula da Silva lives on in Jair Bolsonaro’s Brazil: Opposition to controversial president is still in sway to its jailed former leader.”

The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year);  Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely – ongoing crisis); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); Peru snap legislative (January – possible but not certain – ongoing crisis); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25). Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)


Peru’s Congress building. Photo credit: Wikimedia/AgainErick (CC BY-SA 3.0)

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