Upcoming Elections
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Tina Law, Stuff (New Zealand): “New Zealanders have been slow to vote in the local body elections, prompting concerns the country could be on track to record its lowest turnout in 40 years. The majority of the country’s councils have recorded a drop in voter turnout compared to the same time during the 2016 election, with only a handful reporting increases.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up.
Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again, but has not yet announced whether or not he will. His main challengers will be former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa.
Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Krishan Francis, AP: “A Sri Lankan court on Friday [October 4] dismissed a case seeking the cancellation of the citizenship of presidential hopeful Gotabaya Rajapaksa, clearing the way for him to register as a candidate in the November election.”
Taylor Dibbert, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “In Sri Lanka’s election, bumps ahead: A former president’s brother leads the pack, trailed by an assassinated president’s son….Few people thought Mahinda Rajapaksa could be beaten in January 2015, but he was. In theory, a broad and diverse alliance has the potential to defeat the Rajapaksas again. Such an alliance, however, which the UNP will undoubtedly lead, would need to run a very smart campaign. They’ll also need more than a little luck.”
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Channel News Asia: “The Tanjung Piai by-election will take place on Nov 16, the Election Commission (EC) announced on Tuesday (Oct 1), amid signs of a lack of consensus within the opposition on which party is likely to lock horns with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM).”
Malay Mail: “The decision to allow candidates as young as 18 to contest in elections, starting with the Tanjung Piai by-election in Johor next month, is the start of a revolution in Malaysian democracy, according to Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Sivamurugan Pandian.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Jeff Pao, Asia Times: “The Hong Kong government may cancel the District Council election if social unrest in the city continues in the next two weeks.”
Sum Lok-kei, South China Morning Post: “Hong Kong’s largest pro-Beijing political party has admitted that it is facing its toughest challenge in the coming district council elections amid backlash from the now-withdrawn extradition bill and the possibility of the polls being cancelled because of ongoing protests. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) said it would still send 179 candidates for the November elections, to face 99 from the Democratic Party.”
Tim Hamlett, Hong Kong Free Press: “Why Hong Kong’s ill-thought-out mask ban is headed straight for a legal slugfest”
John Keane, The Conversation: “‘We fear Hong Kong will become just another Chinese city’: an interview with Martin Lee, grandfather of democracy”
South Korea Legislative – April 15, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 51.4 million
President Moon Jae-In, who is limited to a single term in office, is facing a decrease in approval ratings ahead of the midterm legislative elections; however, his ratings tend to improve temporarily whenever there appears to be a breakthrough in the standoff with North Korea. The discontent is largely due to his management of the economy.
Moon’s center-left Minjoo Party (Democratic Party) currently has 128 seats in the National Assembly, and the main opposition conservative Liberty Korea Party (formerly called the Saenuri Party and before that the Grand National Party) has 111 seats. The Minjoo Party swept the June 2018 local elections, winning 14 out of 17 mayoral and gubernatorial offices in major metropolitan areas.
Stratfor: “South Korea’s Economic Doldrums Have Taken the Wind Out of Moon’s Sails”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020 (delay to 2023 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 105.9 million
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections.
There is currently talk of postponing the village and youth council elections to 2023 and extending the mandates of the current office-holders. The last village and youth council elections were also postponed, so this would be the second time for an election to be postponed under Duterte.
Mara Cepeda, Rappler: “House now wants to postpone barangay, SK polls to December 2022: Lawmakers approve on 2nd reading the amended House bill on the postponement of the barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections, which is now similar to the Senate version”
Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 3.1 million
Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.
Poynter: “Mongolia’s journalists won’t get left behind on the worldwide trend of fact-checking: The country will elect a new parliament in 2020 and a new president in 2021, and in light of this has just launched a fact-checking collaborative project with 20 television, newspaper and radio outlets from around the country.”
Matthew Campbell and Terrence Edwards, South China Morning Post: “Mongolia’s Khaltmaa Battulga, the other populist president with a business background and ties to Putin: He named his company after a mafia outfit from The Godfather before entering politics, ascending to the highest office and passing controversial legislation that allowed him to fire judges and opposition voices along the way”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million
People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.
The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Reuters: “Singapore is about to introduce a law against ‘fake news’ which rights groups have warned may stifle free speech and opposition politicians have said could give the government too much power as elections loom.”
Toh Han Shih, The Independent (Singapore): “In Singapore, with general elections expected in a few months, legal battles over libel are ongoing and there is a real possibility of fights over fake news….The People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since 1959, will fight a two-front war, a political contest against opposition parties and Prime Minister Lee’s legal battles.”
The Online Citizen (Singapore): “On 28 September, the Singapore Democratic Party unveiled their manifesto for the upcoming general elections (GE) in the form of a book entitled, The Way Forward.”
Past Elections
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
South China Morning Post: “Indonesia’s new Parliament got its first female speaker of the House of Representatives when Puan Maharani, the daughter of the country’s first female president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, was sworn in on Tuesday [October 1]….Parliament was sworn in amid heavy security as protests continue since presidential elections in April.”
Sana Jaffrey, Foreign Policy: “Protests Against Joko Widodo Rock Indonesia: In the largest student uprising in decades, former supporters of the president are now questioning his commitment to reform.”
Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja, Straits Times: “Senior Golkar lawmaker elected as Speaker of powerful Indonesian assembly: A senior politician with Indonesia’s second-largest party Golkar, Bambang Soesatyo, has been appointed Speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), as lawmakers gear up for the new legislative year.”
Asia This Week – October 4, 2019
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Last Updated: October 16, 2019 by 21votes
October 4, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up.
Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again, but has not yet announced whether or not he will. His main challengers will be former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa.
Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
South Korea Legislative – April 15, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 51.4 million
President Moon Jae-In, who is limited to a single term in office, is facing a decrease in approval ratings ahead of the midterm legislative elections; however, his ratings tend to improve temporarily whenever there appears to be a breakthrough in the standoff with North Korea. The discontent is largely due to his management of the economy.
Moon’s center-left Minjoo Party (Democratic Party) currently has 128 seats in the National Assembly, and the main opposition conservative Liberty Korea Party (formerly called the Saenuri Party and before that the Grand National Party) has 111 seats. The Minjoo Party swept the June 2018 local elections, winning 14 out of 17 mayoral and gubernatorial offices in major metropolitan areas.
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020 (delay to 2023 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 105.9 million
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections.
There is currently talk of postponing the village and youth council elections to 2023 and extending the mandates of the current office-holders. The last village and youth council elections were also postponed, so this would be the second time for an election to be postponed under Duterte.
Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 3.1 million
Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million
People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.
The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
Upcoming Elections
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million
New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.
Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.
Tina Law, Stuff (New Zealand): “New Zealanders have been slow to vote in the local body elections, prompting concerns the country could be on track to record its lowest turnout in 40 years. The majority of the country’s councils have recorded a drop in voter turnout compared to the same time during the 2016 election, with only a handful reporting increases.”
Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million
Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.
The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up.
Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again, but has not yet announced whether or not he will. His main challengers will be former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa.
Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.
Krishan Francis, AP: “A Sri Lankan court on Friday [October 4] dismissed a case seeking the cancellation of the citizenship of presidential hopeful Gotabaya Rajapaksa, clearing the way for him to register as a candidate in the November election.”
Taylor Dibbert, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter: “In Sri Lanka’s election, bumps ahead: A former president’s brother leads the pack, trailed by an assassinated president’s son….Few people thought Mahinda Rajapaksa could be beaten in January 2015, but he was. In theory, a broad and diverse alliance has the potential to defeat the Rajapaksas again. Such an alliance, however, which the UNP will undoubtedly lead, would need to run a very smart campaign. They’ll also need more than a little luck.”
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million
In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.
Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.
Channel News Asia: “The Tanjung Piai by-election will take place on Nov 16, the Election Commission (EC) announced on Tuesday (Oct 1), amid signs of a lack of consensus within the opposition on which party is likely to lock horns with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM).”
Malay Mail: “The decision to allow candidates as young as 18 to contest in elections, starting with the Tanjung Piai by-election in Johor next month, is the start of a revolution in Malaysian democracy, according to Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Sivamurugan Pandian.”
Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million
A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.
Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.
Jeff Pao, Asia Times: “The Hong Kong government may cancel the District Council election if social unrest in the city continues in the next two weeks.”
Sum Lok-kei, South China Morning Post: “Hong Kong’s largest pro-Beijing political party has admitted that it is facing its toughest challenge in the coming district council elections amid backlash from the now-withdrawn extradition bill and the possibility of the polls being cancelled because of ongoing protests. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) said it would still send 179 candidates for the November elections, to face 99 from the Democratic Party.”
Tim Hamlett, Hong Kong Free Press: “Why Hong Kong’s ill-thought-out mask ban is headed straight for a legal slugfest”
John Keane, The Conversation: “‘We fear Hong Kong will become just another Chinese city’: an interview with Martin Lee, grandfather of democracy”
South Korea Legislative – April 15, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 51.4 million
President Moon Jae-In, who is limited to a single term in office, is facing a decrease in approval ratings ahead of the midterm legislative elections; however, his ratings tend to improve temporarily whenever there appears to be a breakthrough in the standoff with North Korea. The discontent is largely due to his management of the economy.
Moon’s center-left Minjoo Party (Democratic Party) currently has 128 seats in the National Assembly, and the main opposition conservative Liberty Korea Party (formerly called the Saenuri Party and before that the Grand National Party) has 111 seats. The Minjoo Party swept the June 2018 local elections, winning 14 out of 17 mayoral and gubernatorial offices in major metropolitan areas.
Stratfor: “South Korea’s Economic Doldrums Have Taken the Wind Out of Moon’s Sails”
Philippines Village Elections – May 11, 2020 (delay to 2023 possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 105.9 million
Political parties in the Philippines are weak, and politics tends to be based not on ideology but rather personality and dynasty (for instance, a survey in 2014 found that 70 percent of elected representatives were members of political dynasties). In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider (although his daughter, Sara, now holds the mayorship of Davao, her father’s former job). Duterte has governed with an iron fist, waging a drug war that has resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, sparking an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The government has cracked down on critics, including elected officials and journalists. Duterte allies swept the 2019 midterm legislative and local elections.
There is currently talk of postponing the village and youth council elections to 2023 and extending the mandates of the current office-holders. The last village and youth council elections were also postponed, so this would be the second time for an election to be postponed under Duterte.
Mara Cepeda, Rappler: “House now wants to postpone barangay, SK polls to December 2022: Lawmakers approve on 2nd reading the amended House bill on the postponement of the barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections, which is now similar to the Senate version”
Mongolia Parliamentary – June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 3.1 million
Mongolia has been a democracy since 1990 but is currently embroiled in political turmoil, and its safeguards of democracy are beginning to unravel. Politics are gridlocked due to hostilities between President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the center-right Democratic Party (DP) and the government, appointed by the left-wing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds 65 out of 76 seats in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s unicameral parliament. Battulga narrowly won in Mongolia’s first-ever presidential runoff 2017, and his DP only seven seats in parliament. Corruption has become a perennial problem, and has sparked protests, and many Mongolians are generally disillusioned with politicians.
Poynter: “Mongolia’s journalists won’t get left behind on the worldwide trend of fact-checking: The country will elect a new parliament in 2020 and a new president in 2021, and in light of this has just launched a fact-checking collaborative project with 20 television, newspaper and radio outlets from around the country.”
Matthew Campbell and Terrence Edwards, South China Morning Post: “Mongolia’s Khaltmaa Battulga, the other populist president with a business background and ties to Putin: He named his company after a mafia outfit from The Godfather before entering politics, ascending to the highest office and passing controversial legislation that allowed him to fire judges and opposition voices along the way”
Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million
People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.
The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.
Reuters: “Singapore is about to introduce a law against ‘fake news’ which rights groups have warned may stifle free speech and opposition politicians have said could give the government too much power as elections loom.”
Toh Han Shih, The Independent (Singapore): “In Singapore, with general elections expected in a few months, legal battles over libel are ongoing and there is a real possibility of fights over fake news….The People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since 1959, will fight a two-front war, a political contest against opposition parties and Prime Minister Lee’s legal battles.”
The Online Citizen (Singapore): “On 28 September, the Singapore Democratic Party unveiled their manifesto for the upcoming general elections (GE) in the form of a book entitled, The Way Forward.”
Past Elections
Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million
In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.
South China Morning Post: “Indonesia’s new Parliament got its first female speaker of the House of Representatives when Puan Maharani, the daughter of the country’s first female president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, was sworn in on Tuesday [October 1]….Parliament was sworn in amid heavy security as protests continue since presidential elections in April.”
Sana Jaffrey, Foreign Policy: “Protests Against Joko Widodo Rock Indonesia: In the largest student uprising in decades, former supporters of the president are now questioning his commitment to reform.”
Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja, Straits Times: “Senior Golkar lawmaker elected as Speaker of powerful Indonesian assembly: A senior politician with Indonesia’s second-largest party Golkar, Bambang Soesatyo, has been appointed Speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), as lawmakers gear up for the new legislative year.”
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
The Year Ahead: Asia Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Bangladesh parliamentary by-election in Rangpur (October 5); New Zealand local (October 12); India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October 21); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); Sri Lanka presidential (November 16); Malaysia parliamentary by-election in Tanjong Piai (November 16); Hong Kong local (November 24); Kiribati legislative (December); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); Maldives local (April); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11 – delay to 2023 possible); Mongolia parliamentary (June)
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Category: This Week Tags: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka