Europe This Week – October 3, 2019

News, analysis and opinions on Europe elections
October 3, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe elections on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.

On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.

Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million

The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.

Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.

Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia. However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.

Thuriginia will be an important contest. The AfD leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party.

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections – November 2019 (expected) and Snap Parliamentary – May 2020 (Not yet called, but likely)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Croatia Presidential – December 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 4.3 million

In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is running for re-election. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). The current mayor of Paris is Anne Hidalgo from the Socialist Party, who is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.

ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.

Upcoming Europe Elections
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Updated October 4, 2019

Emma Beswick, Euronews: “Kosovo: What you need to know about the country’s snap elections”

Perparim Isufi, Balkan Insight: “As voters in Kosovo prepare to head to the ballot boxes on October 6, analysts says the tighter than usual race makes the outcome especially hard to call….Unlike the last 2017 parliamentary elections, when three former guerrilla leaders-turned-politicians, Kadri Veseli [Democratic Party of Kosovo, PDK], Ramush Haradinaj [Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, AAK] and Fatmir Limaj [NISMA] joined a pre-election coalition, now they are split in three lists.”

Muhamet Brajshori, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “A road map for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue: These elections will be a critical determinant of the foreign policy direction Kosovo will take in the months ahead as preparations are underway to resume negotiations for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia.”

Daniel McLaughlin, Irish Times: “Kosovo is preparing to vote in an unpredictable parliamentary election that could see a former rebel commander replaced as the head of government by the country’s first female prime minister.”

Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.

On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.

Updated October 4, 2019

Reuters: “Portugal’s ruling Socialists maintained their lead position ahead of Sunday’s election in an opinion poll published on Wednesday, but remained short of a majority, while support for the main opposition surged.”

Marta Rodriguez Martinez, Euronews: “Portugal elections: is it the end of the `’contraption’ left-wing coalition?”

Peter Wise, Financial Times: “Fires and neglect stoke resentment on Portugal’s ‘Route 66’: PM Costa campaigns to defend record in rural interior ahead of election.

Catarina Demony, Reuters: “Europe’s loneliest far-right party losing election battle in Portugal”

Susi Dennison and Lívia Franco, European Council on Foreign Relations: “The instinctive multilateralist: Portugal and the politics of cooperation”

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

James Shotter, Financial Times: “How Poland’s wild ride out of communism remains an election faultline: Architect of reform recalls need for change but ruling Law and Justice says cost too high.”

Jan Cienski, Politico: “The most powerful man in Poland wants the country to know he won’t be around for ever. One year after a prolonged disappearance from the public stage — caused by what was later reported to be a “life-threatening” health problem — prompted speculation about who would replace him, Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, is back at the top of his country’s politics.”

Dominique Soguel and Monika Rębała, Christian Science Monitor: “As Poland’s election heats up, so does anti-LGBTQ rhetoric. Why?”

Zosia Wanat, Politico: “In Poland, politics cuts across the dinner table: Divisions deepen as the country heads to the polls on October 13…..A study published this year by the University of Warsaw’s Center for Research on Prejudice found supporters of Poland’s ruling and opposition parties hold strikingly negative feelings toward each other. The antagonism is sharper among the opposition parties.”

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.

Fanni Kaszás, Hungary Today: “Almost one third of the municipalities will only have a single mayoral candidate in the October 13th local elections. This means that in these places, the mayor needs only one valid vote to be elected for the next five years.”

Jon Stone, The Independent: “A Hungarian opposition party says its private meetings in parliament were bugged, and politically sensitive material leaked from them, in order to undermine its election campaign. Párbeszéd, a pro-EU and environmentalist party, has filed a criminal complaint with the police over the recordings, which are circulating on social media.”

Zsuzsanna Szelényi , The American Interest: “Viktor Orbán, Fidesz, and Me: A former Fidesz activist recalls marching for democracy alongside Viktor Orbán—and then breaking ranks as he steered Hungary down a different path.”

Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million

The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.

Swissinfo: “A record number of candidates will run for election to the Swiss parliament on October 20 next, including more young people and more women. The numbers released on Mondayexternal link by the Federal Statistics Office show that a total of 511 lists have been registered for this year’s elections to Switzerland’s bigger chamber, the House of Representatives – a 21% increase compared to 2015.”

DW: “Tens of thousands of people have marched in Bern for more climate action, in one of Switzerland’s largest protests in years. Three weeks before an election, a quarter of voters said climate policies are a top issue.”

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.

Denitsa Koseva, BNE Intellinews: “A furious argument between two far-right politicians during a public debate marred the formal launch of the local election campaign in Bulgaria. The country will vote on October 27 for local mayors in an election that is seen as decisive for the future of the government of third-time Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, and the campaign is expected to be very tense.”

Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.

Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia. However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.

Thuriginia will be an important contest. The AfD leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party.

Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg: “Austria’s Elections Show Germany’s Future: Austria just held an election that indicates a new direction for European politics: Increasingly, the center right might find itself working with the Greens.”

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections – November 2019 (expected) and Snap Parliamentary – May 2020 (Not yet called, but likely)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

Mícheál Lehane, RTE: “By-elections come at a unique time for Irish politics”

Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Daniel Dombey, Financial Times: “Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s caretaker prime minister, has set out his stall for his re-election bid, arguing that his Socialists offer the only chance of a stable government at a time when the country is braced for tensions in Catalonia, a slowing economy and a no-deal Brexit.”

Eoghan Gilmartin, Jacobin: “The Spanish Left at War: To analyze Spain’s ongoing governability crisis and the growing division on the Spanish left, Eoghan Gilmartin sat down to talk to Juan Carlos Monedero, cofounder of Podemos and professor of political science at Madrid’s Complutense University.”

Mark Nayler, Foreign Policy: “Digging Up a Dictator Won’t End Spain’s Divisions: The Spanish government just moved a step closer to disinterring the remains of Francisco Franco. But as the country heads for yet another election, a new book shows that voters have other priorities.”

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Emerging Europe: “Romania’s embattled government faces a struggle for survival after the country’s opposition [put forward] a no-confidence motion on October 1. The motion is set to be debated in the country’s parliament on October 8 or 9, with the opposition claiming that it already has enough support to bring down the government, led by Viorica Dăncilă. The move has been expected ever since ALDE, the junior partner in the ruling coalition, pulled out of the government in August, leaving the PSD, the senior party in the coalition, without a majority.”

Iulian Ernst, BNE Intellinews: “While the opposition seems to have consolidated sufficient support in parliament to overthrow the government, it does not feature the necessary coherence to replace it with something else. This is exactly what Dancila apparently plans to capitalise on: blame the opposition for causing political havoc and gain support ahead of the November presidential election.”

Carmen Paun, Politico: “Romania’s presidential candidates make pilgrimage to America: Trips are meant to show voters back home that the candidate has access to top US officials.

Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 4.3 million

In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is running for re-election. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.

AP: “Croatian President Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic has formally announced she will run for a second term during a presidential election expected to be held by the end of the year.”

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). The current mayor of Paris is Anne Hidalgo from the Socialist Party, who is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

Vivienne Walt, Time: “’He was a Man of History.’ France’s President Jacques Chirac Remembered by His Former Prime Minister: Jacques Chirac, who died at 86 on Thursday, towered over French politics for nearly 40 years, first as Mayor of Paris, then as Prime Minister and finally for 12 years as President of France.”

 Marie-Anne Gairaud, Le Parisien (in French): “The candidates for mayor of Paris, all Chiraquiens … or almost: Since the death of Jacques Chirac, the candidates for the mayor of Paris, on the right and on the left, all make declarations claiming his legacy.”

Simon Carraud, Reuters: “The niece of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said on Saturday she was convinced her ideas would carry her to power in the future, though she did not declare herself officially as a candidate for the next presidential election in France in 2022….With Saturday’s gathering, called the ‘Convention of the Right’ and featuring prominent conservative polemicists, Marechal is making sure she remains in the media spotlight and is hoping to appeal to members of the traditional conservative party, Les Republicains, analysts say.”

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Patrick Smith, NBC News: “Boris Johnson presses U.K. elections as Brexit endgame nears: The prime minister’s strategy is a huge gamble that could easily backfire.”

Ted Bromund, Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal: “Right now, the likeliest path to Brexit is through an election, which is why Johnson is calling for one and is putting the Conservative Party on election footing.

Past Europe Elections
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.

ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.

Sarah Dean and Ivana Kottasová, CNN: “One of the world’s youngest leaders returns in Austria after scandal brought his government down: Sebastian Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party came first in the country’s general election on Sunday, winning in every federal state except the capital Vienna, according to the Austrian Interior Ministry. The vote also marked significant losses for the far-right Freedom Party, which lost around third of its seats.”

Melissa Eddy, New York Times: “Austria’s former chancellor Sebastian Kurz won a snap election he called four months ago after his government collapsed because of a scandal engulfing his far-right coalition partner. But the result of Sunday’s vote raised the question of whether he would need to team up again with the far right to form a government, or would shift to the left.”

Jon Henley, The Guardian: “The slump in support for the nationalist Freedom party (FPÖ) in Austria’s elections on Sunday is the latest indication that if the tide has not turned against Europe’s far-right populists, it does seem – for the time being, at least – to have stopped rising.”

FranzStefan Gady, Slate: “Austria’s Election Wasn’t the Beginning of the End of the Far Right: Yes, the scandal-plagued Freedom Party has suffered a setback, but it’s likely to be temporary.”

Europe Elections: The Year Ahead:
Portugal, Madeira regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Kosovo snap parliamentary (October 6); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Spain snap parliamentary (November 10 – not officially called, but highly likely); Croatia presidential (December); France municipal (March 15-11); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (due by April – snap possible); Poland presidential (May); Iceland presidential (June); Romania local and possibly snap parliamentary (June)

 


A 2015 campaign billboard for Portugal’s Communist Party, which currently has a confidence-and-supply deal with the government that may end following Sunday’s elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/El-Kelaa-des-Sraghna (CC BY-SA 4.0)

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