Upcoming Europe Elections
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Jan Cienski, Politico: “How to watch the Polish election like a pro: Despite the ruling party’s dominance, the October 13 vote will be a close one.”
James Shotter and Agata Majos, Financial Times: “Poland election: the unfinished counter-revolution: On Sunday, Poles will head for the voting booths in what politicians on both sides of a bitter partisan divide have branded the most important election since their country threw off communism in 1989 — and the economic progress that has won over Mr Peruta may well turn out to be Law and Justice’s trump card.”
Dariusz Kalan, Foreign Policy: “In Poland’s Upcoming Election, the Law and Justice Party Is Demonizing the LGBT Community to Win: The party is likely to win the vote, but it may eventually lose the broader cultural fight.”
Yascha Mounk, The Atlantic: “A populist government in a major European country can now credibly claim that it would, if reelected, enjoy a closer relationship with the United States than a moderate opposition that is struggling to rescue the country’s democratic institutions. Democracy is in mortal danger in Poland—and the president of the United States is on the side of its would-be assassins.”
Agnieszka Kolakowska, Politico: “In defense of Poland’s ruling party….Poland, for all its faults and mistakes, is grappling with important questions. How do you foster patriotism without facing charges of nationalist xenophobia? How can you reconcile liberal democracy with historic traditions and values? How can you strike a balance between equal rights and religious freedom?”
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.
Péter Cseresnyés, Hungary Today: “According to political analysts, the upcoming municipal election might have the highest stakes out of all the local elections since the regime change in Hungary. Although not necessarily for government parties, more likely this year’s municipal election will be decisive for the whole Hungarian opposition.”
Levente Szilagyi, BNE Intellinews: “Sex, corruption, cocaine, Hungary’s election campaign gets dirty.”
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “How Viktor Orban’s Populism May Face Backlash in Budapest: A strong showing on Oct. 13, particularly in the capital Budapest, could give the opposition momentum for the 2022 parliamentary election. Failure to reclaim some big cities would point to a likely fifth term for the standard-bearer of European right-wing populists.”
Valerie Hopkins, Financial Times: “Orban’s foes reach rare unity in bid to win control of Budapest: Istanbul is the example as Hungary’s opposition hopes for springboard to fight Fidesz.”
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
The Local (Switzerland): “Swiss voters go to the polls in just under two weeks time. Here’s what you need to know to understand what’s at stake in the parliamentary elections and what the outcome might be.”
Urs Geiser, SwissInfo: “The Swiss parliament is set for a slight shift to the left at the expense of the political right, according to a final opinion poll conducted ahead of the October 20th election.”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.
Sofia Globe: “Results of a poll by the Alpha Research agency released on October 9 show incumbent Sofia mayor and GERB candidate Yordanka Fandukova with a very narrow lead over her main rival, former national Ombudsman Maya Manolova….Where results are inconclusive, a second round will be held on November 3. In the mayoral race in capital city Sofia, there are 20 candidates.”
Reuters: “Bulgaria’s broadcast regulator launched action on Wednesday to sack the chief of Bulgarian National Radio for briefly taking it off the air in a row with a popular presenter known for her coverage of the graft-prone judicial system.”
Metamorphosis Foundation (North Macedonia): “Dr. Rumena Filipova: The Oligarchs In Bulgaria Are The Main Controllers of The Media And Main Disinformation Proxies”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million
Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Daniel Dombey, Financial Times: “Sánchez gamble on Spain elections risks being an act of hubris: Average of polls puts Socialists at 27.8%, a percentage point below their April result.”
Charlie Devereux, Bloomberg: “[The Socialists’] traditional rivals, the conservative People’s Party, stand to gain the most from fresh elections, rising to 20.1% from 16.7%. Ciudadanos would plunge to 10.7% from 15.9% while Podemos would fall to 12%, the survey found.”
Elsa García de Blas, El País: “New election, new strategy: Spain’s center-right parties change their message: Ciudadanos is now open to deals after shunning the Socialist Party for months, while the Popular Party is focusing on the economy ahead of the November 10 repeat vote.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Andrea Dudik and Andra Timu, Bloomberg: “Here’s Why Romanian Politics Is Blowing Up Yet Again
Updated October 10, 2019
Stratfor: “Romania: Government Falls After a No-Confidence Vote”
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 4.3 million
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is running for re-election. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Balkan Insight: “Loved by the right, ridiculed by the left, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic’s Croatian presidency has been nothing if not eventful. Now the former diplomat says she wants another five-year term.”
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million
Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition. After months of speculation, the coalition collapsed when the League’s Matteo Salvini pulled out, in a ploy to trigger a new election. However, Five Star then formed another (equally fragile) coalition with former Prime Minster Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party (PD). Renzi then announced that he was leaving PD to start a new centrist party, but would still back the government. The coalition could collapse yet again, and snap elections are still very much a possibility.
Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”
BBC: “Italy reduces size of parliament ‘to save €1bn in a decade’”
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Tom McTague, The Atlantic: “The Never-Ending Brexit Crisis: Many in Britain are hoping an election will break a political deadlock, but a vote carries risks that no one is openly acknowledging.”
Andrew Wood, The American Interest: “A former British diplomat guides us through the current crisis—and why the issues go well beyond Brexit.”
Past Europe Elections
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Andy Heil, RFE/RL: “Key Takeaways From Kosovo’s Watershed Vote”
AFP: “Opposition parties won the night in Kosovo’s election Sunday taking the lead over former guerrillas who have dominated politics for the past decade. The leftist-nationalist Vetevendosje was in first place with 26 percent of the vote, followed by the centre-right LDK who had 25.2 percent after more than three quarters of the ballots were counted, the electoral commission said.”
World Politics Review (interview): “Vetevendosje leader Albin Kurti, a former political dissident, will now try to form a coalition government, but how exactly he will do so is unclear, says Aleksandar Kocic, a Serbian-born journalist and lecturer in journalism at Edinburgh Napier University. In an email interview with WPR, he discusses the significance of the election results and what they could mean for stalled negotiations aimed at normalizing relations with neighboring Serbia, which refuses to recognize Kosovo.”
RFE/RL: “Kosovo Election Winner Not In Hurry To Renew Serbia Talks”
Updated October 10, 2019
Prishtina Insight: “Vetevendosje and the Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, are close to reaching a deal to form a governing coalition for the next four years, after the two former opposition parties won the majority of votes in the October 6 parliamentary elections.”
Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.
Jon Henley, The Guardian: “Portugal’s Socialists won Sunday’s general elections but fell short of an absolute majority, leaving the prime minister, António Costa, needing to negotiate a delicate new alliance with the far-left parties that backed him last time around.”
Alastair Jamieson and Reuters, Euronews: “Socialist Antonio Costa wins Portugal election, will continue ‘contraption’ coalition”
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.
ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.
AFP: “Austria’s president on Monday [October 7] tasked election winner Sebastian Kurz with forming another government, putting the 33-year-old conservative on course to start tough coalition negotiations after his far-right former ally was brought down by scandals.”
Tessa Szyszkowitz, RUSI: “Austria: The Successful Populist – Following the election victory of Sebastian Kurz, some are wondering if the Austrian model could be copied across the border in Germany. Kurz’s admirers might want to consider the dangers involved following such a model.”
New York Times: “Across Europe, embattled traditional parties are grappling with how to deal with the disruptive force of the far right: isolate and contain it, or work with it in hopes of winning back voters?”
Europe This Week – October 9, 2019
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Last Updated: October 23, 2019 by 21votes
October 9, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.
Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million
Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 4.3 million
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is running for re-election. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million
Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition. After months of speculation, the coalition collapsed when the League’s Matteo Salvini pulled out, in a ploy to trigger a new election. However, Five Star then formed another (equally fragile) coalition with former Prime Minster Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party (PD). Renzi then announced that he was leaving PD to start a new centrist party, but would still back the government. The coalition could collapse yet again, and snap elections are still very much a possibility.
Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.
ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Jan Cienski, Politico: “How to watch the Polish election like a pro: Despite the ruling party’s dominance, the October 13 vote will be a close one.”
James Shotter and Agata Majos, Financial Times: “Poland election: the unfinished counter-revolution: On Sunday, Poles will head for the voting booths in what politicians on both sides of a bitter partisan divide have branded the most important election since their country threw off communism in 1989 — and the economic progress that has won over Mr Peruta may well turn out to be Law and Justice’s trump card.”
Dariusz Kalan, Foreign Policy: “In Poland’s Upcoming Election, the Law and Justice Party Is Demonizing the LGBT Community to Win: The party is likely to win the vote, but it may eventually lose the broader cultural fight.”
Yascha Mounk, The Atlantic: “A populist government in a major European country can now credibly claim that it would, if reelected, enjoy a closer relationship with the United States than a moderate opposition that is struggling to rescue the country’s democratic institutions. Democracy is in mortal danger in Poland—and the president of the United States is on the side of its would-be assassins.”
Agnieszka Kolakowska, Politico: “In defense of Poland’s ruling party….Poland, for all its faults and mistakes, is grappling with important questions. How do you foster patriotism without facing charges of nationalist xenophobia? How can you reconcile liberal democracy with historic traditions and values? How can you strike a balance between equal rights and religious freedom?”
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.
Péter Cseresnyés, Hungary Today: “According to political analysts, the upcoming municipal election might have the highest stakes out of all the local elections since the regime change in Hungary. Although not necessarily for government parties, more likely this year’s municipal election will be decisive for the whole Hungarian opposition.”
Levente Szilagyi, BNE Intellinews: “Sex, corruption, cocaine, Hungary’s election campaign gets dirty.”
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “How Viktor Orban’s Populism May Face Backlash in Budapest: A strong showing on Oct. 13, particularly in the capital Budapest, could give the opposition momentum for the 2022 parliamentary election. Failure to reclaim some big cities would point to a likely fifth term for the standard-bearer of European right-wing populists.”
Valerie Hopkins, Financial Times: “Orban’s foes reach rare unity in bid to win control of Budapest: Istanbul is the example as Hungary’s opposition hopes for springboard to fight Fidesz.”
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
The Local (Switzerland): “Swiss voters go to the polls in just under two weeks time. Here’s what you need to know to understand what’s at stake in the parliamentary elections and what the outcome might be.”
Urs Geiser, SwissInfo: “The Swiss parliament is set for a slight shift to the left at the expense of the political right, according to a final opinion poll conducted ahead of the October 20th election.”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.
Sofia Globe: “Results of a poll by the Alpha Research agency released on October 9 show incumbent Sofia mayor and GERB candidate Yordanka Fandukova with a very narrow lead over her main rival, former national Ombudsman Maya Manolova….Where results are inconclusive, a second round will be held on November 3. In the mayoral race in capital city Sofia, there are 20 candidates.”
Reuters: “Bulgaria’s broadcast regulator launched action on Wednesday to sack the chief of Bulgarian National Radio for briefly taking it off the air in a row with a popular presenter known for her coverage of the graft-prone judicial system.”
Metamorphosis Foundation (North Macedonia): “Dr. Rumena Filipova: The Oligarchs In Bulgaria Are The Main Controllers of The Media And Main Disinformation Proxies”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million
Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Daniel Dombey, Financial Times: “Sánchez gamble on Spain elections risks being an act of hubris: Average of polls puts Socialists at 27.8%, a percentage point below their April result.”
Charlie Devereux, Bloomberg: “[The Socialists’] traditional rivals, the conservative People’s Party, stand to gain the most from fresh elections, rising to 20.1% from 16.7%. Ciudadanos would plunge to 10.7% from 15.9% while Podemos would fall to 12%, the survey found.”
Elsa García de Blas, El País: “New election, new strategy: Spain’s center-right parties change their message: Ciudadanos is now open to deals after shunning the Socialist Party for months, while the Popular Party is focusing on the economy ahead of the November 10 repeat vote.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Andrea Dudik and Andra Timu, Bloomberg: “Here’s Why Romanian Politics Is Blowing Up Yet Again
Updated October 10, 2019
Stratfor: “Romania: Government Falls After a No-Confidence Vote”
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 4.3 million
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is running for re-election. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Balkan Insight: “Loved by the right, ridiculed by the left, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic’s Croatian presidency has been nothing if not eventful. Now the former diplomat says she wants another five-year term.”
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million
Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition. After months of speculation, the coalition collapsed when the League’s Matteo Salvini pulled out, in a ploy to trigger a new election. However, Five Star then formed another (equally fragile) coalition with former Prime Minster Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party (PD). Renzi then announced that he was leaving PD to start a new centrist party, but would still back the government. The coalition could collapse yet again, and snap elections are still very much a possibility.
Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”
BBC: “Italy reduces size of parliament ‘to save €1bn in a decade’”
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Tom McTague, The Atlantic: “The Never-Ending Brexit Crisis: Many in Britain are hoping an election will break a political deadlock, but a vote carries risks that no one is openly acknowledging.”
Andrew Wood, The American Interest: “A former British diplomat guides us through the current crisis—and why the issues go well beyond Brexit.”
Past Europe Elections
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Andy Heil, RFE/RL: “Key Takeaways From Kosovo’s Watershed Vote”
AFP: “Opposition parties won the night in Kosovo’s election Sunday taking the lead over former guerrillas who have dominated politics for the past decade. The leftist-nationalist Vetevendosje was in first place with 26 percent of the vote, followed by the centre-right LDK who had 25.2 percent after more than three quarters of the ballots were counted, the electoral commission said.”
World Politics Review (interview): “Vetevendosje leader Albin Kurti, a former political dissident, will now try to form a coalition government, but how exactly he will do so is unclear, says Aleksandar Kocic, a Serbian-born journalist and lecturer in journalism at Edinburgh Napier University. In an email interview with WPR, he discusses the significance of the election results and what they could mean for stalled negotiations aimed at normalizing relations with neighboring Serbia, which refuses to recognize Kosovo.”
RFE/RL: “Kosovo Election Winner Not In Hurry To Renew Serbia Talks”
Updated October 10, 2019
Prishtina Insight: “Vetevendosje and the Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, are close to reaching a deal to form a governing coalition for the next four years, after the two former opposition parties won the majority of votes in the October 6 parliamentary elections.”
Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.
Jon Henley, The Guardian: “Portugal’s Socialists won Sunday’s general elections but fell short of an absolute majority, leaving the prime minister, António Costa, needing to negotiate a delicate new alliance with the far-left parties that backed him last time around.”
Alastair Jamieson and Reuters, Euronews: “Socialist Antonio Costa wins Portugal election, will continue ‘contraption’ coalition”
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.
ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.
AFP: “Austria’s president on Monday [October 7] tasked election winner Sebastian Kurz with forming another government, putting the 33-year-old conservative on course to start tough coalition negotiations after his far-right former ally was brought down by scandals.”
Tessa Szyszkowitz, RUSI: “Austria: The Successful Populist – Following the election victory of Sebastian Kurz, some are wondering if the Austrian model could be copied across the border in Germany. Kurz’s admirers might want to consider the dangers involved following such a model.”
New York Times: “Across Europe, embattled traditional parties are grappling with how to deal with the disruptive force of the far right: isolate and contain it, or work with it in hopes of winning back voters?”
The Year Ahead: Europe
Finland Åland regional parliament and local (due); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Italy Umbria regional (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Spain snap parliamentary (November 10 – not officially called, but highly likely); Croatia presidential (December); France municipal (March 15-11); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (due by April – snap possible); Poland presidential (May); Iceland presidential (June); Romania local and possibly snap parliamentary (June)
If we’ve missed any Europe elections taking place in the next year, please let us know by commenting below. Thanks!
Leftist-nationalist Vetevendosje, which just won Kosovo’s snap elections, demonstrating in Prishtina in 2007. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Ulisi (CC BY-SA 3.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Kosovo, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom