Eurasia This Week – October 10, 2019

October 10, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia elections on Thursdays. Click the map pins.

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local – December 22, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.

The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.

Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million

Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).

Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.

Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.8 million

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Upcoming Elections
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

RFE/RL: “Andrei Năstase said that he is moving forward in the election campaign for the post of mayor of the capital, after Tuesday [October 9] the Court of Appeal handed him the victory in the elections for the same position last year. Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Nastase said that the decision of the Moldovan court, whose legal consequences are still being analyzed, is a reflection of the judgment of the European Court of Human Rights.”

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

RFE/RL: Dozens of people have rallied in Minsk’s Freedom Square against their country’s possible integration with Russia. Prominent opposition politician and former presidential candidate Mikalay Statkevich organized the protest on October 6 ostensibly as part of a drive to collect signatures and get on the ballot for next month’s parliamentary elections.”

Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local – December 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.

The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.

Steve Swerdlow, Human Rights Watch: “Charting Progress in Mirziyoyev’s Uzbekistan: Three Years of Frenzied Reform Activity Have Certainly Made a Difference, But Much Work Remains to be Done.”

Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million

Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).

JAMnews: “Opposition demonstration in Baku: dummies, confrontation with police and 30 detainees”

Updated October 11, 2019

Trend: “The preparation for municipal election will be completed in Azerbaijan soon, chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC) Mazahir Panahov said at the meeting in Baku held for the chairmen of the district election commissions, Trend reports on Oct. 11.”

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.8 million

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

Updated October 11, 2019

RFE/RL: “Former Kyrgyz President A No-Show At Trial After Deadly Summer Standoff”

Past Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.

DW: “Russia brands opposition leader Navalny anti-corruption group a ‘foreign agent’: Opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation has been declared a ‘foreign agent’ by Russian authorities. The organization says the move is aimed at hindering its investigative work.”

Todd Prince, RFE/RL: “Russia Used $50 U.S.-Based Donation To Help Brand Navalny Foundation ‘Foreign Agent’”

Andrew Higgins, New York Times: “Russia Couldn’t Stop This Putin Critic. Now It Has a New Tactic.”

Meduza: “Moscow prosecutor sues to make opposition leaders pay National Guard troops who arrested their protesters”

Givi Gigitashvili, Eurasia Review: “Family Separation: The Kremlin’s Latest Anti-Protest Strategy – Analysis: Amid the ongoing Moscow protests, Russian authorities seized custody of protesters’ children.”

Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.

RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Thousands of demonstrators are rallying in Kyiv against President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s plan to hold local elections in eastern Ukrainian territory that is under the control of Russia-backed separatists. Protesters at the rally are denouncing the plan as capitulation to Russia.”

Steven Pifer, Brookings Institution: “Did Zelenskiy give in to Moscow? It’s too early to tell”

Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Will The OSCE ‘Democratize’ Russia’s Occupation in Ukraine’s Donbas?….For the first time in the history of Russia-orchestrated conflicts, the OSCE now declares itself prepared to observe and evaluate ‘elections’ in a territory occupied or controlled by Russia—in this case, in Ukraine’s Donbas. The OSCE is thereby breaking with its own practice of refusing to take notice of such ‘elections.’”

 

The Year Ahead: Eurasia Elections
Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary and local (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March); Kyrgyzstan parliamentary (October)

We do our best to include all Eurasia elections for the next year. If we’re missing any Eurasia elections, please let us know by commenting below. Thanks!

 

Andrei Nastase, currently Moldova’s deputy prime minister and candidate for mayor of Chisinau, in 2015. Photo credit: Wikimedia/AccentTV (CC BY 3.0)

 

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

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