Asia This Week – October 11, 2019

October 11, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.

Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.

Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.

Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.

Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.

Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million

A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.

The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million

Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the  country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.

Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.

New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million

New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.

Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.

Australia Federal Parliamentary – May 18, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 23.5 million

Cambodia General – July 29, 2018 

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million

Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.

Upcoming Asia Elections
Malaysia Parliamentary By-Election in Tanjong Piai – November 16, 2019 and Local Elections – TBD
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.

Tanjong Piai is home to mainland Eurasia’s southernmost point. The parliamentary seat became open when incumbent Md Farid Md Rafik died of a heart attack on September 21 at age 42. Md Farid was a member of the PH, and he narrowly defeated incumbent Wee Jeck Seng from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a member of the BN coalition, and the PAS candidate in a three-way contest.

Joceline Tan, Straits Times: “Malaysia’s battle of frenemies looms in Johor by-election: Tanjung Piai poll offers a glimpse of new undercurrents at play in rival camps.”

Anisah Shukry, Bloomberg: “Malaysia to Scrap Anti-Fake News Law Once Used Against Mahathir”

Sri Lanka Presidential – November 16, 2019 (confirmed) and Parliamentary – February 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. SLPP did well in local elections last year.

Out of a record 35 presidential candidates, the two frontrunners former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Mahinda’s brother), who has been accused of war crimes (Mahinda is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency), as well as Sajith Premadasa from UNP, who bested Wickremesinghe in the party’s bitterly-fought nomination contest. Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, and has sought to bolster his campaign’s national security credentials by promising to appoint a former wartime army chief as head of national security if elected. Rajapaksa is presenting himself as a strongman, promising to eliminate Islamist terrorists.

Sirisena has announced that he will not seek re-election, and for the first time ever, the SLFP will not be fielding a presidential candidate. Thus Sri Lanka’s party system is in the midst of a realignment. International observers have noted that the fluid party situation could make the election more competitive, but also note concerns about media bias, transparency in campaign finance, voter education, and party conduct. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

Krishnan Francis, AP: “Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena has decided not to seek reelection next month after failing to fulfill many of the promises of his first term. A record 35 candidates filed nominations Monday for the Nov. 16 election, with former defense chief Gotabaya Rajapaksa considered the favorite.”

AFP: “A record number of candidates for Sri Lanka’s presidential poll next month has led to the longest-ever ballot paper, and the most expensive vote in the country’s history, the Election Commission said on Tuesday (Oct 8)….Thirty-five candidates are running in the Nov 16 poll – the highest number in any single ballot, Elections Commission chief Mahinda Deshapriya told reporters in Colombo. ‘The ballot paper will be the longest-ever we have had,’ he said. ‘It will be 65cm long.””

Bharatha Mallawarachi, AP: “Sri Lanka’s president will stay neutral in the upcoming presidential election but his party will back a breakaway party candidate, front-runner Gotabaya Rajapaksa, officials said Wednesday [October 9]….Party Vice President Mahinda Samarasinghe told reporters that the decision to support Rajapaksa, a former defense chief, was made with the backdrop of the volatile security situation following Easter Sunday bomb attacks that killed more than 260 people.”

Meera Srinivasan, The Hindu: “Is this the beginning of the political demise of Sri Lanka Freedom Party?….The more significant development for the party — from which Presidents Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena rose to the country’s highest office — is that this is the first time that the SLFP is not fielding a candidate in Sri Lanka’s presidential election. Breaking the decades-long contest between the SLFP-United National Party (UNP), the Rajapaksas’ SLPP has emerged as a relatively new, but politically significant player.”

Shihar Aneez and Ranga Sirilal, Reuters: “Sri Lanka’s presidential frontrunner housing minister Sajith Premadasa launched his campaign on Thursday, promising to appoint a wartime army chief as head of national security should he win the Nov. 16 presidency in a nation still reeling from Easter Sunday Islamist attacks.”

International Republican Institute/National Democratic Institute (United States): “Statement of Joint IRI and NDI Pre-Election Assessment Mission to Sri Lanka’s 2019 Presidential Election”

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million

A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong since the beginning of the summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections. The police have responded violently and pro-Beijing forces have sought to smear and demoralize the protesters. There are fears that Beijing could send troops, but Hong Kong’s activists vow to continue until they succeed in their goals.

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Keith Bradsher, New York Times: “In Hong Kong’s Crackdown on Protests, Face Mask Ban May Be the Start”

Coconuts Hong Kong: “A pro-democracy candidate running in the upcoming district council elections was sent to the hospital last night after being attacked last night.”

Pallabi Munsi, OZY: “Can this 22-year-old bring democracy to Hong Kong?”

Brian Wong, South China Morning Post: “Four Sham Shui Po residents charged in ‘lucky bag’ vote-buying scheme involving pro-Beijing lawmaker in last year’s Legislative Council by-elections.”

Updated October 12, 2019

Peace Chiu, South China Morning Post: “Candidates running for the coming district council elections in Hong Kong will no longer need to provide their residential addresses for the government’s gazette, authorities said on Saturday in a bid to protect individuals from doxxing. Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen made the announcement as the city braced for its 19th straight weekend of protests, with opposing camps resorting to tactics such as leaking personal data online or cyberbullying.”

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.

The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

Matthew Strong, Taiwan News: “Taiwan’s Foxconn founder rules out cooperation with PFP leader James Soong: Gou emphasizes cooperation with Taipei Mayor Ko in legislative election campaign.”

Grace Shao, CNBC: “Hong Kong protests have ‘given a bounce to Tsai Ing-wen’ in Taiwan, says professor”

Lauly Li and Cheng Ting-Fan, Nikkei Asian Review: “Taiwan’s Tsai: China’s ‘one country, two systems’ model has failed: President hardens anti-Beijing stance ahead of January election”

Randy Mulyanto, Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter (Australia): “For China, “national reunification”
with Taiwan remains a dream.”

Burma Parliamentary – Expected late 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.6 million

Burma, also called Myanmar, seemed to be moving toward democracy following the  country’s first credible, relatively free elections in 2015, which swept Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) to power following decades of military dictatorship. Once held up by the global community as a paragon of moral authority for giving up her own freedom in the fight for democracy, Suu Kyi’s tenure as the country’s de facto leader has disappointed many. Burma still has hundreds of political prisoners, including many who were arrested after the NLD came to power.

Ethnic conflicts continue between the dominant Burmans, who comprise roughly 60 percent of the population, and different minority groups. The crisis in Rakhine or Arakan State with the Muslim Rohingya, which some have called a genocide, has created 700,000 refugees in neighboring Bangladesh and 128,000 internally displaced people. During by-elections in 2018, the NLD won seven out of 13 seats, but lost five out of six in non-Burman areas.

Kyaw Zaw Moe, The Irrawaddy: “How Will the 2020 Election Shape Myanmar’s Democracy?

Hunter Marston and Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound: “A Review of ‘The Hidden History of Burma: Race, Capitalism, and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21st Century’”

Past Asia Elections
New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million

New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.

Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning.

Updated October 12, 2019

Simon Collins, New Zealand Herald: “Local council elections: ‘Diversity burst’ shatters council old boys’ club….Of the 63 local councils which have declared results so far, 25 per cent of the mayors are women — up from 19 per cent last time — and five of the 63 mayors are aged under 40.”

Stuff (New Zealand): “The major results from the 2019 local body elections”

Australia Federal Parliamentary – May 18, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 23.5 million

Emma Wynne, ABC News (Australia): “Scandals, division and voter apathy blamed for lack of interest in running for local council: At Western Australia’s upcoming local council elections, 37 of the 138 jurisdictions won’t hold a vote because all the candidates have been elected unopposed.”

Sarah Martin, The Guardian: “Victorian Labor has used a tightly held submission to a review of the May election result to argue for states to have more input into the national campaign, arguing a ‘one size fits all’ approach was a key reason for the party’s bruising election loss.”

Cambodia General – July 29, 2018 
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million

Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

The 2018 election has been described as the “death of democracy” in Cambodia. Since then, Cambodia has worked to suppress all critical voices, including journalists, civil society, and the opposition. The United States sanctioned Cambodia’s top officials in response.

Reuters: “Cambodia’s prime minister threatened on Monday [October 7] to deploy the military if leaders and supporters of the disbanded main opposition party return from exile next month in what he would regard as an attempted coup d’etat.”

Radio Free Asia: “Authorities in Cambodia have no plans to end the arrests of banned opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) activists who express support for party chief Sam Rainsy’s planned return from self-imposed exile next month, Minister of Interior Sar Kheng warned Wednesday [October 9].”

A pro-democracy Lennon Wall in Hong Kong in 2014. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Thony Lam (CC BY-SA 3.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

The Year Ahead: Asia Elections
India, Maharashtra and Haryana states (October 21); Thailand parliamentary by-Election (October 23); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); Sri Lanka presidential (November 16); Hong Kong local (November 24); Kiribati legislative (December); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); Maldives local (April); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11 – delay to 2023 possible); Mongolia parliamentary (June)

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