Upcoming Americas Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Carlos Valdez, AP: “Evo Morales faces toughest test to keep power in Bolivia”
Monica Machicao, Reuters: “Bolivian opposition candidates are closing in on President Evo Morales in polls ahead of a general election later this month, with Latin America’s longest continuous standing leader possibly being edged out in a second round run-off.”
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review: “Why Bolivia’s Wildfires Are Raising the Heat on Evo Morales”
Ben Raderstorf and Michael J. Camilleri, Washington Post: “How Evo Morales running again — and again — undermines Bolivia’s democracy”
Raul Peñaranda U.., Americas Quarterly: “Nevertheless, the October elections are the first in which an opposition candidate has an actual chance of winning since 2005. If this happens, Bolivia could be rerouted toward the path of full democracy.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Paul Vieira, Wall Street Journal: “In Canadian Election Battleground, Financial Anxieties Weigh Heavily: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Conservative rival are vying for Toronto’s suburbs, where voters feel squeezed.”
Dan Bilefsky, New York Times: “A ‘Mad Max’ Candidate Offers a Far-Right Jolt to the Canadian Election”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.
Nicolás Misculin and Miguel Lobianco, Reuters: “In farm-rich Argentina, hunger cries ring in leaders’ ears amid crisis”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Poverty, priests and politics: why Peronism is back in Argentina: As ‘slum priests’ try to fill the gap left by the state, the populist movement is on the rise again”
Nicolás Misculin and Walter Bianchi, Reuters: “Argentina needs to make radical changes including trimming back big government and freeing international trade to avoid slipping into disaster, presidential candidate and libertarian economist José Luis Espert told Reuters.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.
Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
BN Americas: “Uruguay heads to the ballot box with no clear outlook”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.
Steven Grattan, Al Jazeera: “Colombia elections: Candidates face spate of violence: Seven candidates have been killed and more than 60 others have been attacked in the lead up to the October 27 election.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.
Updated October 14, 2019
Rachelle Krygler, Washington Post: “Daily protests are paralyzing Haiti. Here’s why: Protest leaders in Haiti called the people to the streets Monday [October 14] for a sixth week of demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Jovenel Moïse. Tens of thousands marched to affluent neighborhoods over the weekend, spilling oil and burning tires while riot police blocked roads.”
Updated October 15, 2019
AP: “Haiti President Breaks Silence, Says Will Not Resign: President Jovenel Moïse has broken his silence, saying it would be irresponsible for him to resign amid Haiti’s unrest, which has entered a fifth week of deadly protests that have paralyzed the economy and shuttered schools.”
Trinidad and Tobago Local – December 2, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.2 million
The major parties fall largely, but not exclusively, along ethnic lines. Roughly 40 percent of citizens are of Indian descent and 40 percent are of African descent, with the remaining 20 percent encompassing a broad spectrum of ethnic heritages. However, citizens have a strong sense of national pride and national identity as Trinidadians and Tobagonians. The two major parties are Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s People’s National Movement (PNM), which tends to be supported by Afro-Trinidadians and returned to power after winning the 2015 elections. The People’s Partnership (PP) coalition, whose main member the United National Congress (UNC) is mostly supported by Indo-Trinidadians, governed from 2010 to 2015, with leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar serving as Trinidad and Tobago’s first female prime minister. She currently serves as the country’s first female leader of the opposition. The next parliamentary elections are due by September 2020, but could happen earlier.
Chanice Gibbs, Trinidad and Tobago Guardian: “The Office of the Prime Minister has announced via its Facebook page that Local government elections will be held on Monday, December 2, 2019. And already UNC and Opposition leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar is urging her rival to ‘bring it on’ saying that she is ready for the general elections.
Peru Snap Congressional – January 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion
On September 30, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved Congress, calling for snap elections. The last time this happened was in 1992, under President Alberto Fujimori, who then instituted almost a decade of authoritarian rule. Fujimori is now in jail for human rights abuses. However, many Peruvians credit him with laying the groundwork for economic growth and marginalizing terrorist groups such as the communist Shining Path, which was itself responsible for widespread atrocities (such as routinely hacking people to death with machetes).
Vizcarra took office in March 2018 following the resignation of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, widely called PPK, who faced impeachment. Kuczynski, a well-respected economist, had defeated Fujimori’s daughter, Keiko Fujimori, in the 2016 presidential election. His party, Peruvians for Change (Peruanos Por el Kambio, or PPK – the party deliberately misspelled “Cambio” so that its acronym would be the same as its leader’s initials), won 18 out of 130 seats, but Fujimori’s right-wing populist Popular Force (Fuerza Popular) won the most seats with 71. The remaining seats were won by various smaller parties across the ideological spectrum. Peruvian politics are fractious and corruption has been an ongoing problem. The Economist notes: “Most Peruvians share Mr Vizcarra’s view that the legislature is corrupt, obstructive and overdue for dissolution. Nearly 90% disapprove of it.”
John Quigley, Bloomberg: “Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra’s decision to dissolve Congress to end a long-running political feud has made him the country’s most popular leader in more than three decades. Vizcarra’s approval rating soared to 82% from 52% last month, according to a poll by Lima-based Datum Internacional poll published in Gestion and Peru21 newspapers on Thursday. His decision to shut the legislative body was supported by 85% of those questioned while 74% said it will be beneficial for the country.”
Joh Otis and Juan Montes, Wall Street Journal: “‘God and Money’: Graft in Peru Sparks Political Reckoning: Peruvians overwhelmingly support president’s closure of a Congress that many deem irredeemably corrupt.”
The Economist: “Peru’s president opens Pandora’s box”
Dominican Republic Local – February 16, 2019 and Presidential and Legislative – May 17, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.3 million
President Danilo Medina from the center-left Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) is not eligible to run for a third term. PLD and its allies currently have majorities in both houses of the legislature. Six people were killed in election-related violence during the last elections in 2016.
Michael Deibert, Bloomberg: “Voter Anger Spreads in Dominican Republic’s Miracle Economy: Polls suggest 2020 elections may be challenge for ruling party.”
Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.
In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.
Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Starbroek News: “Exxon says will give no $$ to parties for ‘mother of all elections’”
Brazil Municipal – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
The Brazilian Report: “Elections 2020: with 12 months to go, campaigns heating up around Brazil.”
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Reuters: “Venezuela denies entry to Guatemalan president-elect, scuppering meeting with opposition leader”
Past Americas Elections
Ecuador General – February 19, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 16.5 million
Updated October 15, 2019
José María León Cabrera, New York Times: “Thousands of protesters streamed into downtown Quito on Wednesday [October 9], the seventh day of violent unrest that has brought the country to a virtual standstill, has led to the arrest of hundreds and has threatened the government’s stability.”
Michael Weissentein and Gonzalo Solano, AP: “Ecuador’s army took to the streets after President Lenín Moreno ordered the first 24-hour curfew in decades in response to a day of attacks on government buildings and media offices. By Saturday night [October 12], soldiers had retaken control of the park and streets leading to the National Assembly and the national comptroller’s office, which had been broken into by protesters who lit fires inside the building.”
AP: “Ecuador celebrated a deal President Lenín Moreno and indigenous leaders struck late Sunday [October 13] to cancel a disputed austerity package and end nearly two weeks of protests that have paralyzed the economy and left seven dead.”
Americas This Week – October 12, 2019
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Last Updated: October 23, 2019 by 21votes
October 12, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas elections on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.
Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.
Trinidad and Tobago Local - December 2, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.2 million
The major parties fall largely, but not exclusively, along ethnic lines. Roughly 40 percent of citizens are of Indian descent and 40 percent are of African descent, with the remaining 20 percent encompassing a broad spectrum of ethnic heritages. However, citizens have a strong sense of national pride and national identity as Trinidadians and Tobagonians. The two major parties are Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s People’s National Movement (PNM), which tends to be supported by Afro-Trinidadians and returned to power after winning the 2015 elections. The People’s Partnership (PP) coalition, whose main member the United National Congress (UNC) is mostly supported by Indo-Trinidadians, governed from 2010 to 2015, with leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar serving as Trinidad and Tobago’s first female prime minister. She currently serves as the country’s first female leader of the opposition. The next parliamentary elections are due by September 2020, but could happen earlier.
Peru Snap Congressional - January 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion
On September 30, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved Congress, calling for snap elections. The last time this happened was in 1992, under President Alberto Fujimori, who then instituted almost a decade of authoritarian rule. Fujimori is now in jail for human rights abuses. However, many Peruvians credit him with laying the groundwork for economic growth and marginalizing terrorist groups such as the communist Shining Path, which was itself responsible for widespread atrocities (such as routinely hacking people to death with machetes).
Vizcarra took office in March 2018 following the resignation of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, widely called PPK, who faced impeachment. Kuczynski, a well-respected economist, had defeated Fujimori’s daughter, Keiko Fujimori, in the 2016 presidential election. His party, Peruvians for Change (Peruanos Por el Kambio, or PPK – the party deliberately misspelled “Cambio” so that its acronym would be the same as its leader’s initials), won 18 out of 130 seats, but Fujimori’s right-wing populist Popular Force (Fuerza Popular) won the most seats with 71. The remaining seats were won by various smaller parties across the ideological spectrum. Peruvian politics are fractious and corruption has been an ongoing problem. The Economist notes: “Most Peruvians share Mr Vizcarra’s view that the legislature is corrupt, obstructive and overdue for dissolution. Nearly 90% disapprove of it.”
Dominican Republic Local - February 16, 2019 and Presidential and Legislative - May 17, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.3 million
President Danilo Medina from the center-left Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) is not eligible to run for a third term. PLD and its allies currently have majorities in both houses of the legislature. Six people were killed in election-related violence during the last elections in 2016.
Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.
In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.
Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Brazil Municipal – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Ecuador General - February 19, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 16.5 million
Upcoming Americas Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Carlos Valdez, AP: “Evo Morales faces toughest test to keep power in Bolivia”
Monica Machicao, Reuters: “Bolivian opposition candidates are closing in on President Evo Morales in polls ahead of a general election later this month, with Latin America’s longest continuous standing leader possibly being edged out in a second round run-off.”
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review: “Why Bolivia’s Wildfires Are Raising the Heat on Evo Morales”
Ben Raderstorf and Michael J. Camilleri, Washington Post: “How Evo Morales running again — and again — undermines Bolivia’s democracy”
Raul Peñaranda U.., Americas Quarterly: “Nevertheless, the October elections are the first in which an opposition candidate has an actual chance of winning since 2005. If this happens, Bolivia could be rerouted toward the path of full democracy.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Most recently, photos emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Paul Vieira, Wall Street Journal: “In Canadian Election Battleground, Financial Anxieties Weigh Heavily: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Conservative rival are vying for Toronto’s suburbs, where voters feel squeezed.”
Dan Bilefsky, New York Times: “A ‘Mad Max’ Candidate Offers a Far-Right Jolt to the Canadian Election”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.
Nicolás Misculin and Miguel Lobianco, Reuters: “In farm-rich Argentina, hunger cries ring in leaders’ ears amid crisis”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Poverty, priests and politics: why Peronism is back in Argentina: As ‘slum priests’ try to fill the gap left by the state, the populist movement is on the rise again”
Nicolás Misculin and Walter Bianchi, Reuters: “Argentina needs to make radical changes including trimming back big government and freeing international trade to avoid slipping into disaster, presidential candidate and libertarian economist José Luis Espert told Reuters.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms.
Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
BN Americas: “Uruguay heads to the ballot box with no clear outlook”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.
Steven Grattan, Al Jazeera: “Colombia elections: Candidates face spate of violence: Seven candidates have been killed and more than 60 others have been attacked in the lead up to the October 27 election.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.
Updated October 14, 2019
Rachelle Krygler, Washington Post: “Daily protests are paralyzing Haiti. Here’s why: Protest leaders in Haiti called the people to the streets Monday [October 14] for a sixth week of demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Jovenel Moïse. Tens of thousands marched to affluent neighborhoods over the weekend, spilling oil and burning tires while riot police blocked roads.”
Updated October 15, 2019
AP: “Haiti President Breaks Silence, Says Will Not Resign: President Jovenel Moïse has broken his silence, saying it would be irresponsible for him to resign amid Haiti’s unrest, which has entered a fifth week of deadly protests that have paralyzed the economy and shuttered schools.”
Trinidad and Tobago Local – December 2, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.2 million
The major parties fall largely, but not exclusively, along ethnic lines. Roughly 40 percent of citizens are of Indian descent and 40 percent are of African descent, with the remaining 20 percent encompassing a broad spectrum of ethnic heritages. However, citizens have a strong sense of national pride and national identity as Trinidadians and Tobagonians. The two major parties are Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s People’s National Movement (PNM), which tends to be supported by Afro-Trinidadians and returned to power after winning the 2015 elections. The People’s Partnership (PP) coalition, whose main member the United National Congress (UNC) is mostly supported by Indo-Trinidadians, governed from 2010 to 2015, with leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar serving as Trinidad and Tobago’s first female prime minister. She currently serves as the country’s first female leader of the opposition. The next parliamentary elections are due by September 2020, but could happen earlier.
Chanice Gibbs, Trinidad and Tobago Guardian: “The Office of the Prime Minister has announced via its Facebook page that Local government elections will be held on Monday, December 2, 2019. And already UNC and Opposition leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar is urging her rival to ‘bring it on’ saying that she is ready for the general elections.
Peru Snap Congressional – January 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 31.3 milllion
On September 30, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved Congress, calling for snap elections. The last time this happened was in 1992, under President Alberto Fujimori, who then instituted almost a decade of authoritarian rule. Fujimori is now in jail for human rights abuses. However, many Peruvians credit him with laying the groundwork for economic growth and marginalizing terrorist groups such as the communist Shining Path, which was itself responsible for widespread atrocities (such as routinely hacking people to death with machetes).
Vizcarra took office in March 2018 following the resignation of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, widely called PPK, who faced impeachment. Kuczynski, a well-respected economist, had defeated Fujimori’s daughter, Keiko Fujimori, in the 2016 presidential election. His party, Peruvians for Change (Peruanos Por el Kambio, or PPK – the party deliberately misspelled “Cambio” so that its acronym would be the same as its leader’s initials), won 18 out of 130 seats, but Fujimori’s right-wing populist Popular Force (Fuerza Popular) won the most seats with 71. The remaining seats were won by various smaller parties across the ideological spectrum. Peruvian politics are fractious and corruption has been an ongoing problem. The Economist notes: “Most Peruvians share Mr Vizcarra’s view that the legislature is corrupt, obstructive and overdue for dissolution. Nearly 90% disapprove of it.”
John Quigley, Bloomberg: “Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra’s decision to dissolve Congress to end a long-running political feud has made him the country’s most popular leader in more than three decades. Vizcarra’s approval rating soared to 82% from 52% last month, according to a poll by Lima-based Datum Internacional poll published in Gestion and Peru21 newspapers on Thursday. His decision to shut the legislative body was supported by 85% of those questioned while 74% said it will be beneficial for the country.”
Joh Otis and Juan Montes, Wall Street Journal: “‘God and Money’: Graft in Peru Sparks Political Reckoning: Peruvians overwhelmingly support president’s closure of a Congress that many deem irredeemably corrupt.”
The Economist: “Peru’s president opens Pandora’s box”
Dominican Republic Local – February 16, 2019 and Presidential and Legislative – May 17, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.3 million
President Danilo Medina from the center-left Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) is not eligible to run for a third term. PLD and its allies currently have majorities in both houses of the legislature. Six people were killed in election-related violence during the last elections in 2016.
Michael Deibert, Bloomberg: “Voter Anger Spreads in Dominican Republic’s Miracle Economy: Polls suggest 2020 elections may be challenge for ruling party.”
Guyana Provincial and Snap Parliamentary – March 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.
In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation delayed the process. After months of back-and-forth, Granger announced that the election would take place on March 2, 2020.
Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Starbroek News: “Exxon says will give no $$ to parties for ‘mother of all elections’”
Brazil Municipal – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
The Brazilian Report: “Elections 2020: with 12 months to go, campaigns heating up around Brazil.”
Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million
Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.
The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.
Reuters: “Venezuela denies entry to Guatemalan president-elect, scuppering meeting with opposition leader”
Past Americas Elections
Ecuador General – February 19, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 16.5 million
Updated October 15, 2019
José María León Cabrera, New York Times: “Thousands of protesters streamed into downtown Quito on Wednesday [October 9], the seventh day of violent unrest that has brought the country to a virtual standstill, has led to the arrest of hundreds and has threatened the government’s stability.”
Michael Weissentein and Gonzalo Solano, AP: “Ecuador’s army took to the streets after President Lenín Moreno ordered the first 24-hour curfew in decades in response to a day of attacks on government buildings and media offices. By Saturday night [October 12], soldiers had retaken control of the park and streets leading to the National Assembly and the national comptroller’s office, which had been broken into by protesters who lit fires inside the building.”
AP: “Ecuador celebrated a deal President Lenín Moreno and indigenous leaders struck late Sunday [October 13] to cancel a disputed austerity package and end nearly two weeks of protests that have paralyzed the economy and left seven dead.”
The Year Ahead: Americas Elections
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Haiti parliamentary (due October 27 – delays possible – ongoing crisis); Dominica legislative (December); Trinidad and Tobago local (December 2); Peru snap legislative (January 26 – possible but not certain – ongoing crisis); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Dominican Republic local (February 16); Guyana snap parliamentary (March 2); Dominican Republic presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25); Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guyana, Haiti, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela