Upcoming Elections
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Rahim Falez, AP: “The Afghan government will only consider making a ‘legitimate’ peace with insurgents after national elections are held this month, an official told reporters on Saturday, despite the atmosphere of political uncertainty following the sudden halt in U.S.-Taliban peace talks.”
Carla Babb, VOA: “NATO Commander Expects Violence, to Work for Safe Afghan Elections”
Reuters: “An explosion near an election rally attended by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani killed 24 people and injured 31 others, a health official said, but Ghani was unhurt according to an aide.”
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of Decembe 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
AFP: “Algeria is to hold a presidential election on December 12, five months into a political vacuum since longtime leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika resigned in the face of mass protests, his interim successor announced on Sunday.”
Reuters: “Tens of thousands of Algerians marched in the capital on Friday to demand that the rest of the ruling elite follow former president Abdelaziz Bouteflika in quitting power before any new election.”
Aomar Ouali and Elaine Ganley, AP: “Yet there’s no consensus on how to proceed, and no crystal ball to predict how protesters will react if an election is imposed, or whether the country will stumble its way into a new era.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Zhelwan Z. Wali, Rudaw: “Kurdish parties are considering the option of running a joint list in the northern Iraqi province of Nineveh when it holds local elections in April 2020, a week after they formed a similar joint list for the disputed province of Kirkuk. To make it happen, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have engaged in a series of talks, yet no formal agreement has been reached.”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: In Transition
Population: 6.8 million
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Michael Weiss and Pierre Vaux, Daily Beast: “Russia’s Wagner Mercenaries Have Moved Into Libya….In emails revealing Moscow’s efforts to groom incompetent aspiring leaders of the oil-rich war-torn country, the cynicism would be almost laughable, but the carnage is continuous.”
Past Elections
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) centrist political alliance, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government.
The main contenders in the upcoming election are Likud, Blue and White, and a number of smaller parties, some of which hope to be kingmakers following the election. Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Jeffrey Heller, Reuters: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s battle for political survival looked set to stretch on for days or weeks after exit polls following Tuesday’s election showed the race too close to call.”
Gil Hofman and Lahav Harkov, Jerusalem Post: “Both Channel 12 and Channel 13 exit polls foresee yet another stalemate, granting Blue and White the highest amount of seats.”
AP: “However, neither party controls a majority in the 120-seat parliament without the support of Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the midsize Yisrael Beitenu party. Israeli exit polls are often imprecise and the final results, expected Wednesday, could shift in Netanyahu’s favor. But three stations all forecast similar scenarios.”
Tunisia Presidential First Round – September 15, 2019 (second round date TBD) and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.
The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways.
Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
BBC: “Two political outsiders will compete in a run-off vote to become Tunisia’s next president after they topped the first round of voting. Kais Saied, an independent candidate and law professor, won a shock victory with 18.4% of Sunday’s vote. He was followed in second place by the jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui, who received 15.6% of the vote.”
Catherine Clifford, France24: “The date for the run-off hasn’t yet been announced. Neither candidate has ever held political office. They beat out two former prime ministers and the candidate from moderate Islamist party Ennahdha, the biggest force in Tunisia’s parliament.”
DW: “Tunisia’s struggling economy defines election: High inflation and low employment has defined Tunisian’s outlook toward candidates…and the election in general.”
Sharan Grewal, Brookings Institution’s Order from Chaos: “As I argued in February, the conditions in Tunisia were ripe for the emergence of populist outsiders. Eight years into the Arab Spring, Tunisia’s successive governments had failed to deliver on the primary demand of the revolution: economic opportunity.”
Middle East This Week – September 17, 2019
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Last Updated: October 4, 2019 by 21votes
September 17, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Algeria Presidential - December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of Decembe 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversial national elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: In Transition
Population: 6.8 million
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) centrist political alliance, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government.
The main contenders in the upcoming election are Likud, Blue and White, and a number of smaller parties, some of which hope to be kingmakers following the election. Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Tunisia Presidential First Round – September 15, 2019 (second round date TBD) and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.
The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways.
Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Upcoming Elections
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Rahim Falez, AP: “The Afghan government will only consider making a ‘legitimate’ peace with insurgents after national elections are held this month, an official told reporters on Saturday, despite the atmosphere of political uncertainty following the sudden halt in U.S.-Taliban peace talks.”
Carla Babb, VOA: “NATO Commander Expects Violence, to Work for Safe Afghan Elections”
Reuters: “An explosion near an election rally attended by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani killed 24 people and injured 31 others, a health official said, but Ghani was unhurt according to an aide.”
Algeria Presidential – December 12, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned.
The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote. Months later, the interim government set a date of Decembe 12. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair, and that the rest of the ruling elite resign before any vote takes place.
AFP: “Algeria is to hold a presidential election on December 12, five months into a political vacuum since longtime leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika resigned in the face of mass protests, his interim successor announced on Sunday.”
Reuters: “Tens of thousands of Algerians marched in the capital on Friday to demand that the rest of the ruling elite follow former president Abdelaziz Bouteflika in quitting power before any new election.”
Aomar Ouali and Elaine Ganley, AP: “Yet there’s no consensus on how to proceed, and no crystal ball to predict how protesters will react if an election is imposed, or whether the country will stumble its way into a new era.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 40.2 million
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Zhelwan Z. Wali, Rudaw: “Kurdish parties are considering the option of running a joint list in the northern Iraqi province of Nineveh when it holds local elections in April 2020, a week after they formed a similar joint list for the disputed province of Kirkuk. To make it happen, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have engaged in a series of talks, yet no formal agreement has been reached.”
Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: In Transition
Population: 6.8 million
Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.
Michael Weiss and Pierre Vaux, Daily Beast: “Russia’s Wagner Mercenaries Have Moved Into Libya….In emails revealing Moscow’s efforts to groom incompetent aspiring leaders of the oil-rich war-torn country, the cynicism would be almost laughable, but the carnage is continuous.”
Past Elections
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) centrist political alliance, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government.
The main contenders in the upcoming election are Likud, Blue and White, and a number of smaller parties, some of which hope to be kingmakers following the election. Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Jeffrey Heller, Reuters: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s battle for political survival looked set to stretch on for days or weeks after exit polls following Tuesday’s election showed the race too close to call.”
Gil Hofman and Lahav Harkov, Jerusalem Post: “Both Channel 12 and Channel 13 exit polls foresee yet another stalemate, granting Blue and White the highest amount of seats.”
AP: “However, neither party controls a majority in the 120-seat parliament without the support of Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the midsize Yisrael Beitenu party. Israeli exit polls are often imprecise and the final results, expected Wednesday, could shift in Netanyahu’s favor. But three stations all forecast similar scenarios.”
Tunisia Presidential First Round – September 15, 2019 (second round date TBD) and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.
The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest.
Twenty-six candidates ran for president and the election was highly competitive, and the results shocked the political establishment. Two political outsiders will advance to the second round: law professor Kais Saied and jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui. Both could be considered populists, but in very different ways.
Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
BBC: “Two political outsiders will compete in a run-off vote to become Tunisia’s next president after they topped the first round of voting. Kais Saied, an independent candidate and law professor, won a shock victory with 18.4% of Sunday’s vote. He was followed in second place by the jailed media mogul Nabil Karoui, who received 15.6% of the vote.”
Catherine Clifford, France24: “The date for the run-off hasn’t yet been announced. Neither candidate has ever held political office. They beat out two former prime ministers and the candidate from moderate Islamist party Ennahdha, the biggest force in Tunisia’s parliament.”
DW: “Tunisia’s struggling economy defines election: High inflation and low employment has defined Tunisian’s outlook toward candidates…and the election in general.”
Sharan Grewal, Brookings Institution’s Order from Chaos: “As I argued in February, the conditions in Tunisia were ripe for the emergence of populist outsiders. Eight years into the Arab Spring, Tunisia’s successive governments had failed to deliver on the primary demand of the revolution: economic opportunity.”
The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential runoff and parliamentary (TBD and October 6); Algeria presidential (December 12); Iran parliamentary (February); Iraq provincial (April 20); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
Avgidor Liberman could be the kingmaker following Israel’s too-close-to-call election. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Preiss MSC (CC BY 3.0 DE)
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Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Tunisia