Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Al Jazeera: “Ten dead, dozens wounded in Mozambique election rally stampede. At least 10 dead and 98 others injured in stampede at a campaign rally of President Filipe Nyusi, authorities said.”
Mozambique News Agency: “The campaign ahead of Mozambique’s general elections, scheduled for 15 October, ran peacefully for the first two days, but there was an alarming rise in violence and political intolerance, in the subsequent period, according to the ‘Sala da Paz’ (‘Peace Room’), a coalition of election observation bodies.”
APA: “EU deploys long term election observer team to Mozambique general polls”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Odirile Toteng, Caj News: “The official announcement of the date for general elections in Botswana has paved way for way for what points to the most grueling contest for power in a country widely lauded as Africa’s model of democracy. Polls have been confirmed for October 23.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.
Nnenna Ibeh, Legit (Nigeria): “The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), on Wednesday, September 11, confirmed that it monitored governorship primary elections conducted by 59 political parties in Kogi and 64 in Bayelsa.”
Sola Jaiyesimi, DW: “A Nigerian election tribunal has rejected a bid by the main opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to overturn the February presidential election…. Atiku is widely expected to appeal the tribunal’s ruling.”
John Campbell, Council on Foreign Relations: “Meanwhile, the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD), a Nigerian non-government organization, published a post-mortem on the national elections. Its report is based on its own observers, and it is devastating. It describes the INEC process of collating vote totals as chaotic and subject to manipulation.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Al Jazeera: “Arrested Tanzanian journalist tells court his health is declining: Rights groups have decried Kabendera’s arrest, saying it is part of the president’s crackdown on press freedom.”
Mark Leon Goldberg, UN Dispatch: “Over the last few years, elements of Tanzanian democracy have been curtailed. The country is now in the midst of what scholars would call a democratic backslide. This occurs when the state uses its power to weaken institutions that sustain democracy, like civil society and a free press. A key inflection point in this process was the 2015 election of President John Magufuli. Magufuli is very much a populist — his nickname is “The Bulldozer.” He came to power on a pledge to stamp out corruption but has also shown himself to be increasingly intolerant of dissent.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
UN News: ”‘All efforts must be made’ to ensure peaceful elections for Guinea-Bissau, Security Council hears”
UK Acting Political Coordinator at the UN David Clay, Speech to UN Security Council: “The successful conduct of legislative elections in March and the subsequent appointment of a prime minister and formation of a government are significant steps forward, and we commend the Bissau Guinean authorities – and people – on this progress. Turnout of 85% in the legislative elections was an impressive signal of the commitment of the people of Guinea Bissau to a democratic future for their country. The next step in Guinea Bissau’s political transition is the presidential election in November.”
Madagascar Local – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million
Madagascar’s recent parliamentary and presidential elections were hotly-contested and turbulent, and were followed by protests. The mandates of the current communal elected officials expire in September 2019.
RFI: “Madagascar: few candidates for municipal and communal elections….Two communes in the center of the island do not have a list of municipal councilors; but the dreaded scenario of ‘0 candidates’ for some town halls was avoided. However, the number of candidates is much lower than in previous years.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Neil Munshi, Financial Times: “Cameroon separatist crisis prompts call for ‘national dialogue’: President Biya intervenes in bloody linguistic conflict — but is criticised for speaking only in French.”
Andrew Green, World Politics Review: “But is Biya actually committed to peace? His government has exacerbated the separatist crisis in the past, and during his address this week, Biya appeared to undercut his message of peace when he called on separatists to surrender or face military action. At least 2,000 people have died in the insurgency that began in 2017 in the country’s North-West and South-West regions, where Cameroon’s English-speaking minority is concentrated.”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Consultations have begun in Cameroon ahead of a national dialogue ordered by president Paul Biya. Civil society groups and opposition political parties are calling for the unconditional release of Anglophone separatist leaders and other political prisoners before discussions begin.”
AFP: “ Cameroon on Monday [September 10] handed a two-year jail term to Mamadou Mota, first vice-chairman of the opposition Movement for the Rebirth of Cameroon (MRC) led by Maurice Kamto.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Robbie Corey-Boulet, AFP: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pleaded for patience during a visit Sunday [September 15] to leaders of the latest ethnic group pushing to form a breakaway region. The bid by the Kafficho ethnic group to form a new federal state risks further destabilising Ethiopia’s diverse southern region, which just two months ago was rocked by violence stemming from a similar campaign by the Sidama ethnic group.”
Endalk, Global Voices: “A demand to reshape an administrative structure in the Ethiopian Orthodox Church stokes ethnic, religious tensions”
Hilary Matfess, World Politics Review: “What Explains the Rise of Communal Violence in Mali, Nigeria and Ethiopia?”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
Aaron Brooks, East Africa Monitor: “Earlier this year, the UN said Burundi was showing ‘promising signs’ ahead of its next presidential election but warned that a repeat of 2015’s election violence is still possible. While clashes on the streets have long ended, reports of intimidation and human rights violations continue to emerge. In a new report, UN investigators conclude that ‘serious human rights violations have continued to be committed in Burundi since May 2018, in a general climate of impunity.’”
Mohamed Yusuf, VOA: “Burundi’s political crisis, which began in 2015, has claimed the lives of at least 1,200 people. As Burundi gears up for elections next year, human rights groups have accused the government of committing abuses against its opponents, a trend that could cause Burundians to again flee their country in large numbers.”
Sean Williams, GQ: “Inside the most brutal dictatorship you’ve never heard of”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Elise Roberts, World Politics Review: “Is Cote d’Ivoire Heading Toward Another Crisis?…. Political dynamics are adding to fears of renewed unrest ahead of next year’s election. Last year, the political alliance that supported Ouattara dissolved…. Then, Gbagbo returned to national politics earlier this year after being acquitted by the International Criminal Court in January.”
Vincent Duhem, Jeune Afrique (in French): “Alassane Ouattara’s camp prepares for battle for the presidential election. In this busy season, the RHDP has completed the establishment of its governing bodies with a clear goal: to win its presidential candidate in 2020. How? With whom? Investigation.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Cristina Krippahl, DW: “Burkina Faso threatened with famine caused by terrorism. As the death toll of jihadist attacks in Burkina Faso climbs, the UN and the Red Cross say nearly 300,000 people have been forced to flee their homes. Half a million people no longer have access to health care.”
Al Jazeera: “West African leaders pledge $1bn to fight armed groups: The leaders made the pledge after a summit in Burkina Faso aimed at addressing rising insecurity in the Sahel.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population:
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Pulse (Ghana): “The latest Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted victory for the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP). The report said the NPP and President Akufo-Addo will win next year’s election because Ghanaians see them as better custodians of the economy.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
AFP: “The United States on Friday [September13] encouraged Guinea’s visiting president to respect regular transitions of power as the leader flirts with ending term limits to allow him to remain in office. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed Guinea’s 2020 elections, which have already sparked tensions in the west African country, as he met in Washington with President Alpha Conde.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Camille Laffont, AFP: “”The Central African government has used to its advantage the form of rivalry that exists between France and Russia,’ says Hans de Marie Heungoup [an analyst at International Crisis Group], adding: ‘it is a victory that Faustin Archange Touadera can value politically,’ as presidential election looms in 2020.”
Tim Lister, CNN: “The Central African Republic faces a Syria-sized crisis”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model.
Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
African Union Mission in Somalia: “The Somali Federal Minister of Youth and Sports has encouraged the youth to play a role in the country’s decision making processes by participating in preparations for the upcoming elections. Somalia is preparing for a “one person, one vote” election in 2020/2021.”
Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, The East African: “Sheikh Ahmed Islam Mohamed, aka Madobe, may have won back his presidential seat for another four years, but the continued tensions between Jubbaland and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) mean he could be facing a future fraught with uncertainty. As Kenya’s main ally in Somalia, Madobe, who previously led the moderate Ras Kamboni Brigade militia group, got the backing of Nairobi, but was frowned at by Mogadishu.”
Harun Maruf, VOA: “Somalia: Al-Shabab Attacks Kill 17”
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local – December 12, 2019 (now postponed – no new date set)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)
Population: 3.5 million
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.
Greg Mills, Ray Hartley and Marie-Noelle Nwokolo, Daily Maverick: “Somaliland: New ways of doing things in a rough neighbourhood”
Past Elections
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Lynsey Chutel, Washington Post: “What’s driving anti-immigrant violence in South Africa? It’s not just economic anxiety.”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
Joan Tilouine, Le Monde: “In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the risks of sharing power: President Félix Tshisekedi is trying, unsuccessfully thus far, to free himself from the tutelage of his predecessor, Joseph Kabila, who holds a majority in Parliament and in the provincial assemblies.”
Nicolas Niarchos, The New Yorker: Profile on opposition leader Moise Katumbi: “The return of Katumbi, a leading opposition figure, could revive Congolese politics or lead to further fractures.”
Zimbabwe General – July 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 14 million
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. Mugabe died in September 2019.
The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times: “Robert Mugabe’s funeral reminds Zimbabweans of his poisonous legacy: Row over interment of former dictator shows he remains divisive figure even in death.”
The Economist: “Even in death, Robert Mugabe worries his successor: Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe’s president, is bracing for trouble.”
Panashe Chigumadzi, New York Times: “Mugabe Is Dead, but Big Man Politics Lives On Zimbabwe needs a genuinely pan-African mass movement to change the system its authoritarian president built.”
Nathaniel Allen and Alexander Noyes, Washington Post: “African dictators have been losing power — some to democratic governments. Militaries can tip the scales toward free elections.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
Abdoulie John, AP: “Gambia’s justice minister said Friday that former dictator Yahya Jammeh should be charged with theft and other forms of economic crimes as a result of a newly released economic inquiry into the former government.”
Africa This Week – September 16, 2019
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Last Updated: October 3, 2019 by 21votes
September 16, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
Madagascar Local - November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million
Madagascar’s recent parliamentary and presidential elections were hotly-contested and turbulent, and were followed by protests. The mandates of the current communal elected officials expire in September 2019.
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population:
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model.
Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local – December 12, 2019 (now postponed – no new date set)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)
Population: 3.5 million
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.
Zimbabwe General - July 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 14 million
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. Mugabe died in September 2019.
The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Al Jazeera: “Ten dead, dozens wounded in Mozambique election rally stampede. At least 10 dead and 98 others injured in stampede at a campaign rally of President Filipe Nyusi, authorities said.”
Mozambique News Agency: “The campaign ahead of Mozambique’s general elections, scheduled for 15 October, ran peacefully for the first two days, but there was an alarming rise in violence and political intolerance, in the subsequent period, according to the ‘Sala da Paz’ (‘Peace Room’), a coalition of election observation bodies.”
APA: “EU deploys long term election observer team to Mozambique general polls”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Odirile Toteng, Caj News: “The official announcement of the date for general elections in Botswana has paved way for way for what points to the most grueling contest for power in a country widely lauded as Africa’s model of democracy. Polls have been confirmed for October 23.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.
Nnenna Ibeh, Legit (Nigeria): “The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), on Wednesday, September 11, confirmed that it monitored governorship primary elections conducted by 59 political parties in Kogi and 64 in Bayelsa.”
Sola Jaiyesimi, DW: “A Nigerian election tribunal has rejected a bid by the main opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to overturn the February presidential election…. Atiku is widely expected to appeal the tribunal’s ruling.”
John Campbell, Council on Foreign Relations: “Meanwhile, the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD), a Nigerian non-government organization, published a post-mortem on the national elections. Its report is based on its own observers, and it is devastating. It describes the INEC process of collating vote totals as chaotic and subject to manipulation.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Al Jazeera: “Arrested Tanzanian journalist tells court his health is declining: Rights groups have decried Kabendera’s arrest, saying it is part of the president’s crackdown on press freedom.”
Mark Leon Goldberg, UN Dispatch: “Over the last few years, elements of Tanzanian democracy have been curtailed. The country is now in the midst of what scholars would call a democratic backslide. This occurs when the state uses its power to weaken institutions that sustain democracy, like civil society and a free press. A key inflection point in this process was the 2015 election of President John Magufuli. Magufuli is very much a populist — his nickname is “The Bulldozer.” He came to power on a pledge to stamp out corruption but has also shown himself to be increasingly intolerant of dissent.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
UN News: ”‘All efforts must be made’ to ensure peaceful elections for Guinea-Bissau, Security Council hears”
UK Acting Political Coordinator at the UN David Clay, Speech to UN Security Council: “The successful conduct of legislative elections in March and the subsequent appointment of a prime minister and formation of a government are significant steps forward, and we commend the Bissau Guinean authorities – and people – on this progress. Turnout of 85% in the legislative elections was an impressive signal of the commitment of the people of Guinea Bissau to a democratic future for their country. The next step in Guinea Bissau’s political transition is the presidential election in November.”
Madagascar Local – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million
Madagascar’s recent parliamentary and presidential elections were hotly-contested and turbulent, and were followed by protests. The mandates of the current communal elected officials expire in September 2019.
RFI: “Madagascar: few candidates for municipal and communal elections….Two communes in the center of the island do not have a list of municipal councilors; but the dreaded scenario of ‘0 candidates’ for some town halls was avoided. However, the number of candidates is much lower than in previous years.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Neil Munshi, Financial Times: “Cameroon separatist crisis prompts call for ‘national dialogue’: President Biya intervenes in bloody linguistic conflict — but is criticised for speaking only in French.”
Andrew Green, World Politics Review: “But is Biya actually committed to peace? His government has exacerbated the separatist crisis in the past, and during his address this week, Biya appeared to undercut his message of peace when he called on separatists to surrender or face military action. At least 2,000 people have died in the insurgency that began in 2017 in the country’s North-West and South-West regions, where Cameroon’s English-speaking minority is concentrated.”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Consultations have begun in Cameroon ahead of a national dialogue ordered by president Paul Biya. Civil society groups and opposition political parties are calling for the unconditional release of Anglophone separatist leaders and other political prisoners before discussions begin.”
AFP: “ Cameroon on Monday [September 10] handed a two-year jail term to Mamadou Mota, first vice-chairman of the opposition Movement for the Rebirth of Cameroon (MRC) led by Maurice Kamto.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Robbie Corey-Boulet, AFP: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pleaded for patience during a visit Sunday [September 15] to leaders of the latest ethnic group pushing to form a breakaway region. The bid by the Kafficho ethnic group to form a new federal state risks further destabilising Ethiopia’s diverse southern region, which just two months ago was rocked by violence stemming from a similar campaign by the Sidama ethnic group.”
Endalk, Global Voices: “A demand to reshape an administrative structure in the Ethiopian Orthodox Church stokes ethnic, religious tensions”
Hilary Matfess, World Politics Review: “What Explains the Rise of Communal Violence in Mali, Nigeria and Ethiopia?”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
Aaron Brooks, East Africa Monitor: “Earlier this year, the UN said Burundi was showing ‘promising signs’ ahead of its next presidential election but warned that a repeat of 2015’s election violence is still possible. While clashes on the streets have long ended, reports of intimidation and human rights violations continue to emerge. In a new report, UN investigators conclude that ‘serious human rights violations have continued to be committed in Burundi since May 2018, in a general climate of impunity.’”
Mohamed Yusuf, VOA: “Burundi’s political crisis, which began in 2015, has claimed the lives of at least 1,200 people. As Burundi gears up for elections next year, human rights groups have accused the government of committing abuses against its opponents, a trend that could cause Burundians to again flee their country in large numbers.”
Sean Williams, GQ: “Inside the most brutal dictatorship you’ve never heard of”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Elise Roberts, World Politics Review: “Is Cote d’Ivoire Heading Toward Another Crisis?…. Political dynamics are adding to fears of renewed unrest ahead of next year’s election. Last year, the political alliance that supported Ouattara dissolved…. Then, Gbagbo returned to national politics earlier this year after being acquitted by the International Criminal Court in January.”
Vincent Duhem, Jeune Afrique (in French): “Alassane Ouattara’s camp prepares for battle for the presidential election. In this busy season, the RHDP has completed the establishment of its governing bodies with a clear goal: to win its presidential candidate in 2020. How? With whom? Investigation.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Cristina Krippahl, DW: “Burkina Faso threatened with famine caused by terrorism. As the death toll of jihadist attacks in Burkina Faso climbs, the UN and the Red Cross say nearly 300,000 people have been forced to flee their homes. Half a million people no longer have access to health care.”
Al Jazeera: “West African leaders pledge $1bn to fight armed groups: The leaders made the pledge after a summit in Burkina Faso aimed at addressing rising insecurity in the Sahel.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population:
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Pulse (Ghana): “The latest Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted victory for the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP). The report said the NPP and President Akufo-Addo will win next year’s election because Ghanaians see them as better custodians of the economy.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
AFP: “The United States on Friday [September13] encouraged Guinea’s visiting president to respect regular transitions of power as the leader flirts with ending term limits to allow him to remain in office. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed Guinea’s 2020 elections, which have already sparked tensions in the west African country, as he met in Washington with President Alpha Conde.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Camille Laffont, AFP: “”The Central African government has used to its advantage the form of rivalry that exists between France and Russia,’ says Hans de Marie Heungoup [an analyst at International Crisis Group], adding: ‘it is a victory that Faustin Archange Touadera can value politically,’ as presidential election looms in 2020.”
Tim Lister, CNN: “The Central African Republic faces a Syria-sized crisis”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model.
Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
African Union Mission in Somalia: “The Somali Federal Minister of Youth and Sports has encouraged the youth to play a role in the country’s decision making processes by participating in preparations for the upcoming elections. Somalia is preparing for a “one person, one vote” election in 2020/2021.”
Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, The East African: “Sheikh Ahmed Islam Mohamed, aka Madobe, may have won back his presidential seat for another four years, but the continued tensions between Jubbaland and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) mean he could be facing a future fraught with uncertainty. As Kenya’s main ally in Somalia, Madobe, who previously led the moderate Ras Kamboni Brigade militia group, got the backing of Nairobi, but was frowned at by Mogadishu.”
Harun Maruf, VOA: “Somalia: Al-Shabab Attacks Kill 17”
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local – December 12, 2019 (now postponed – no new date set)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: De facto independent state (technically part of the Federal Parliamentary Republic of Somalia)
Population: 3.5 million
Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from the failed state of Somalia. The last elections for the House of Representatives happened in 2005. The upcoming elections set for November 2019 were due in 2010 but faced multiple delays. Despite the lack of recognition, Somaliland is a functional state with more freedom and better governance than the rest of Somalia.
Greg Mills, Ray Hartley and Marie-Noelle Nwokolo, Daily Maverick: “Somaliland: New ways of doing things in a rough neighbourhood”
Past Elections
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Lynsey Chutel, Washington Post: “What’s driving anti-immigrant violence in South Africa? It’s not just economic anxiety.”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
Joan Tilouine, Le Monde: “In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the risks of sharing power: President Félix Tshisekedi is trying, unsuccessfully thus far, to free himself from the tutelage of his predecessor, Joseph Kabila, who holds a majority in Parliament and in the provincial assemblies.”
Nicolas Niarchos, The New Yorker: Profile on opposition leader Moise Katumbi: “The return of Katumbi, a leading opposition figure, could revive Congolese politics or lead to further fractures.”
Zimbabwe General – July 30, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 14 million
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. Mugabe died in September 2019.
The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation.
Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times: “Robert Mugabe’s funeral reminds Zimbabweans of his poisonous legacy: Row over interment of former dictator shows he remains divisive figure even in death.”
The Economist: “Even in death, Robert Mugabe worries his successor: Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe’s president, is bracing for trouble.”
Panashe Chigumadzi, New York Times: “Mugabe Is Dead, but Big Man Politics Lives On Zimbabwe needs a genuinely pan-African mass movement to change the system its authoritarian president built.”
Nathaniel Allen and Alexander Noyes, Washington Post: “African dictators have been losing power — some to democratic governments. Militaries can tip the scales toward free elections.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
Abdoulie John, AP: “Gambia’s justice minister said Friday that former dictator Yahya Jammeh should be charged with theft and other forms of economic crimes as a result of a newly released economic inquiry into the former government.”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Democratic Republic of the Congo local (scheduled for September 22 but have been delayed multiple times – further delays nearly certain); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Botswana parliamentary (October 23); Kenya parliamentary by-election in Kibra (November 7); Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa state, plus Niger State local government (November 16); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Madagascar local (November 27); Mauritius presidential and parliamentary (December); Guinea-Bissau presidential runoff (December 8); Cameroon parliamentary and local (early 2020 – postponed from October 2019); Comoros parliamentary (January); Togo presidential (April); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20)
Madagascar communal (due October 28 but postponed – new date not set); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Somaliland, South Africa, Tanzania, Zimbabwe