Americas

September 14, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Canada General – October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Guyana’s election commission has suggested holding the snap polls along with regional elections in March 2020, but the opposition is insisting on elections before the end of the year.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Costa Rica Local - February 2, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5 million

Costa Rica is a stable democracy with robust political competition and a strong commitment to democratic values. Historically, the two biggest parties have been the center-left National Liberation Party (PLN) and the center-right Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC), but that order began to break down during the 2014 elections, when Luis Guillermo Solís of the fairly new center-left Citizens’ Action Party (PAC) won the presidency, the first time in 50 years that a candidate from neither PLN nor PUSC became president.

The 2018 elections produced a legislature with seven political parties represented, and Carlos Alvarado Quesada from PAC became Costa Rica’s youngest-ever head of state at age 38 in somewhat of a surprise victory, after polling in the single digits in the months before the election (Solís did not run again as neither presidents nor legislators can serve consecutive terms in office).

As many as 161 political parties could participate in the 2020 local elections, which which select mayors and councils in 82 cantons and eight cities. The last local elections, in 2016, marked the first time local elections took place halfway through the presidential and legislative terms – previously, local elections took place in the same year as national elections.

Nicaragua General – Due November 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.1 million

Nicaragua’s crisis continues. In April 2018, protests erupted, and the subsequent brutal crackdown has led to over 300 deaths and 500 arrests, and thousands have left the country. President Daniel Ortega is systematically working to silence all voices of dissent, including from his former Sandinista colleagues. Some have called for Magnitsky-style sanctions on Nicaragua’s leaders. Ortega has rejected calls for early elections. If he lasts until the end of his term, he will have ruled Nicaragua for 20 years.

Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Monica Machicao, Reuters: “Bolivia’s top electoral court has threatened to sanction a local university for publishing what it deemed an ‘invalid’ opinion poll that showed President Evo Morales much weaker than previously believed ahead of the Oct. 20 general election.”

BBC: “Bolivian wildfires destroy two million hectares of forest”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Alexander Panetta, Politico: “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau launched an uncertain bid for reelection Wednesday as the scandal threatening his career cast its shadow over Day 1 of the campaign. Trudeau called for the dissolution of Parliament and officially started the 40-day election season in which the party that wins control of the 338-seat House of Commons forms the next government.”

Drew Fagan, New York Times: “Justin Trudeau’s Gloomy Re-election Prospects Like his father, he has failed to translate glamour into political results.”

Theophilos Argitis, Bloomberg: “Neither of the two main parties is currently polling high enough — both are just north of 30% — to win a majority of the 338 seats up for grabs, meaning the next Parliament could be more fragmented than the current one. The Liberals enter the election with 177 seats, compared with 95 for the Conservatives. A majority requires winning at least 170 seats.”

Steven Zhou, Vice: “The Most Painfully Awkward Moments From Canada’s First Election 2019 Debate: In a show of how exciting Canadian politics are, the most interesting thing about last night’s [September 12] leaders’ debate was the fact that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t even show up for it.”

Kenny Zhang and Don J. Devoretz, The Globe and Mail: “Hong Kong’s turmoil could be a Canadian crisis in the making”

Mike Blanchfield, Global News (Canada): “A new University of Calgary study is predicting Russian interference in the federal election campaign to serve what it describes as the Kremlin’s long-term interest of competing against Canada in the Arctic.”

Steve Lambert, CBC News: “Brian Pallister and his Progressive Conservatives have won a renewed mandate from Manitoba voters to continue their program of cost-cutting and tax reductions. The Tories were projected to capture government in the 57-seat legislature in early returns in Tuesday’s provincial election, but it wasn’t clear if it would be a minority or majority.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Democracy Now!: “Skyrocketing Violence Continues Ahead of Colombian Elections”

Maria Alejandra Navarrete, InSight Crime: “Why Are Political Candidates Being Assassinated in Colombia? The murder of seven candidates in Colombia’s upcoming municipal elections within a month, the highest rate since 2015, has raised new questions about the motives behind the violence.”

Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s mayors demand action from Duque as political violence spirals out of control”

AP: “Two leaders of Colombia’s once largest rebel group have been kicked out of the nation’s transitional justice system after taking up arms again.”

Holly K. Sonneland, AS/COA (podcast): “LatAm in Focus: Colombia at a Crossroads”

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Al Jazeera: “’The situation is dire’: Argentines protest over food crisis: Protesters gathered in Buenos Aires, demanding government take more actions to aid poor.”

Nicolás Misculin, Reuters: “Argentina’s pollsters, still smarting after failing to predict a landslide defeat for President Mauricio Macri in an August primary, are sheepishly re-emerging with an updated election forecast: a huge win for opposition leader Alberto Fernandez.”

Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg: “Inflation in Argentina Spiked After Shock Primary Election”

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Project Syndicate: “Who Lost Argentina, Again? With a presidential election approaching next month, Argentina is once again on the cusp of a crisis that could end in depression and default, owing to mistakes made by everyone involved. Should President Mauricio Macri secure another term, he must waste no time in reversing the country’s economic deterioration.

Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Guyana’s election commission has suggested holding the snap polls along with regional elections in March 2020, but the opposition is insisting on elections before the end of the year.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Starbroek News: “The Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) has not yet agreed on a firm timeline for general and regional elections and while it continues to examine whether the polls can be held before year-end, the commission has indicated that costs would go up, Minister of Public Health Volda Lawrence says.”

Costa Rica Local – February 2, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5 million

Costa Rica is a stable democracy with robust political competition and a strong commitment to democratic values. Historically, the two biggest parties have been the center-left National Liberation Party (PLN) and the center-right Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC), but that order began to break down during the 2014 elections, when Luis Guillermo Solís of the fairly new center-left Citizens’ Action Party (PAC) won the presidency, the first time in 50 years that a candidate from neither PLN nor PUSC became president.

The 2018 elections produced a legislature with seven political parties represented, and Carlos Alvarado Quesada from PAC became Costa Rica’s youngest-ever head of state at age 38 in somewhat of a surprise victory, after polling in the single digits in the months before the election (Solís did not run again as neither presidents nor legislators can serve consecutive terms in office).

As many as 161 political parties could participate in the 2020 local elections, which which select mayors and councils in 82 cantons and eight cities. The last local elections, in 2016, marked the first time local elections took place halfway through the presidential and legislative terms – previously, local elections took place in the same year as national elections.

Voice of Guanacaste: “Five Things to Know Before the February 2020 Municipal Elections”

Nicaragua General – Due November 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.1 million

Nicaragua’s crisis continues. In April 2018, protests erupted, and the subsequent brutal crackdown has led to over 300 deaths and 500 arrests, and thousands have left the country. President Daniel Ortega is systematically working to silence all voices of dissent, including from his former Sandinista colleagues. Some have called for Magnitsky-style sanctions on Nicaragua’s leaders. Ortega has rejected calls for early elections. If he lasts until the end of his term, he will have ruled Nicaragua for 20 years.

Catholic News Service: “Vatican calls for electoral reform, negotiations to resume in Nicaragua”

Teresa Moli, University of Texas at Austin’s Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas: “Nearly seventeen months after protests first broke out in Nicaragua, independent journalists in the country and international press advocates are repeating calls to protect media workers and freedom of expression. To mark the International Day of the Journalist, on Sept. 9, the Independent Press Forum of Nicaragua called for the restitution of public liberties and demanded an end to the police state.”

UN News: “Nicaragua’s on-going human rights crisis can be resolved peacefully through dialogue, the UN’s top rights official said on Tuesday, before expressing concern about allegations of torture and murder of protesters involved in last year’s anti-Government demonstrations.”

The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year);  Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25). Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)

A protest in Canada against the FARC in Colombia, which has seen an uptick in political violence ahead of next month’s local elections. Photo credit: Flickr/Robert Thivierge (CC BY-SA 2.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

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