Europe This Week – September 18, 2019

September 18, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.

Austria is a federal republic with nine Länder (states), each with its own Landtag (parliament). Vorarlberg State holds elections in October. In reality, governance is centralized in Vienna and the state parliaments do not have much legislative authority. The center-right People’s Party (ÖVP) has dominated Voralberg politics for decades. In the 2014 state election, ÖVP came in first place, but did not win a majority. They thus formed a coalition government with the Greens.

Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.

Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia. However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.

Thuriginia will be an important contest. The AfD leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party.

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.


The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is
running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.

Spain Snap Parliamentary - November 10, 2019 (still not officially called, but almost certain to happen)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections – November 2019 (expected) and Snap Parliamentary - May 2020 (Not yet officially called, but likely)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). The current mayor of Paris is Anne Hidalgo from the Socialist Party, who is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million

Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.

Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

Serbia’s last snap parliamentary elections, in April 2016, resulted in a renewed majority for Prime Minister Alexander Vucic’s nationalist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia.

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million

Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition. After months of speculation, the coalition collapsed when the League’s Matteo Salvini pulled out, in a ploy to trigger a new election. However, Five Star then formed another (equally fragile) coalition with former Prime Minster Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party (PD). Renzi then announced that he was leaving PD to start a new centrist party, but would still back the government. The coalition could collapse yet again, and snap elections are still very much a possibility.

Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”

Norway Local – September 9, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.4 million

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental and transportation issues played a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters chose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

Upcoming Elections
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.

Boris Groendahl, Bloomberg: “Why Austria May Renew Kurz’s Brand of Polite Populism”

AP: “Austria’s far-right Freedom Party elected former minister and presidential candidate Norbert Hofer as its leader on Saturday [September 14] as it seeks to return to power in a Sept. 29 national election, trying to move beyond the scandal that brought down the previous administration.”

Sam Jones, Financial Times: “Five months after a spectacular corruption scandal that cost the FPÖ its then leader, Heinz-Christian Strache, and ended its 18 months in government, the party is once more on the verge of power — a prime example of the way anti-immigration nationalists have become established forces within European politics.”

Torsten Landsberg, DW: “How Austria’s far right turned the stadium artwork ‘For Forest’ into a campaign issue: The art installation of 299 trees in a stadium aims to draw attention to the fragility of forests, but right-wing populists misappropriated the project for their election campaign. DW asked artist Klaus Littmann why.”

Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.

Reuters: “Portugal’s ruling Socialists lost some ground in an opinion poll released on Monday, cutting short their months-long surge three weeks before a parliamentary election, but maintained a strong lead over the opposition.”

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

AP: “The European Union’s foreign policy chief says the bloc is sending a 61-member team of observers to Kosovo’s Oct. 6 early general election to show that Pristina ‘remains a political priority.’”

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Jo Harper, DW: “Poland’s ruling party pledges pre-election minimum wage spike: Poland’s ruling party has pledged to raise the minimum wage by 90% over four years. A month before a general election, such a move is either a stroke of political genius or economic calamity, depending on who you ask.”

Zosia Wanat, Politico: “Poland’s PiS aims to regulate journalists after election: The government aims to create a ‘new media order.’”

Wojciech Sadurski, Washington Post’s DemocracyPost: “Poland’s ruling party just made its anti-democratic agenda radically clear”

Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.

Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia. However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.

Thuriginia will be an important contest. The AfD leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party.

The Local (Germany): “The far-right AfD politician Björn Höcke broke off an interview with the German broadcaster ZDF after his words were compared to those of Hitler. Höcke, boss of the AfD in the eastern state of Thuringia, and his press spokesman had asked to restart the awkward interview because Höcke had allegedly been surprised by the questions on his use of language.”

Philip Oltermann, The Guardian: “AfD politician threatens journalist after Hitler comparison”

Spiegel Online: “The AfD’s Ongoing Slide toward Right-Wing Extremism: In recent state elections, the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany won almost a quarter of the votes. It was primarily radical candidates from the right-wing fringe who emerged triumphant. The party is continuing its slide into extremism.”

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.

BBC: “The publication last week of explicit images of the girlfriend of a mayoral candidate in the Bulgarian capital has triggered an avalanche of anger in media circles, as well as in wider society. “

Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019 (still not officially called, but almost certain to happen)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

El País: “Spain is closer than ever to its fourth general election in as many years, after its political parties failed to reach a governing deal in the wake of the inconclusive April 28 polls.”

Daniel Dombey, Financial Times: “One by one, Spain’s political chiefs appeared on television screens this week to explain that the country’s fourth election in four years was all someone else’s fault. Invective and accusations flew as King Felipe VI decided that no party leader had the prospect of winning a parliamentary majority, putting the country on the path to a November 10 poll.”

Raphael Minder, New York Times: “In fact, as in 2016, there is no guarantee that a new election, scheduled for Nov. 10, will break the deadlock among the four parties that have been vying for power since 2015, when Podemos and another new party, Ciudadanos, shattered Spain’s two-party system.”

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Craig Turp, Emerging Europe: “Romania’s presidential election, the first round of which will be held in November, is likely to see renewed attacks on the ethnicity and faith of the country’s current president, Klaus Iohannis. An ethnic German from Transylvania, Mr Iohannis (pictured above) is also a Lutheran in what is an overwhelmingly Orthodox country.”

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections – November 2019 (expected) and Snap Parliamentary – May 2020 (Not yet called, but likely)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

AFP: “Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar revealed Thursday that he wants to hold an early general election in May 2020. Varadkar, 40, said it would be the ‘right moment’ as the Brexit situation with the United Kingdom, Ireland’s only land neighbour, should have been resolved by then.”

Irish Examiner: “Fianna Fáil has seen a surge in support in the latest political opinion poll, as Leo Varadkar says the election should be in May next year. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are almost neck and neck but the Taoiseach [Prime Minister Leo Varadkar] will be hoping an election in May gives Fine Gael a chance to improve its fortunes.”

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). The current mayor of Paris is Anne Hidalgo from the Socialist Party, who is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

Alice Tidey, Euronews: “The battle for Paris is latest crack in Macron’s party as he prepares his second act: In an act of defiance, One of La Republique En Marche (LREM) most recognisable MPs, Cedric Villani, announced his candidacy for the Paris mayorship, exposing the growing pains of Macron’s ruling party and endangering its chances of winning the highly-symbolic Parisian town hall….LREM endorsed Benjamin Griveaux, a former government spokesperson and an MP for Paris, as its official candidate for the March 2020 mayoral election in the French capital on July 10.”

RFI: “Macron hardens stance on immigration in run-up to 2020: Critics and opposition members, however, see the 41-year-old’s move as reaching out to right-wing voters ahead of next year’s 2020 municipal elections and the 2022 presidential vote.”

AFP: “Macron’s remarks saw him compared with former right-wing president Nicolas Sarkozy, who also tried to court far-right voters while in office by talking tough on immigration but without significantly changing French laws. Sarkozy later failed to secure his re-election.”

Michel Bernouin, France 3 Regions (in French): “Six months ahead of municipal elections, Marine Le Pen confirms her strategy: that of ‘the national union to participate in the fight for the recovery of France,’ and not just the union of the right. ‘Leftist sovereignists are orphans,’ says the president of the RN.”

Simon Carraud, Reuters: “France’s Le Pen hails EU ‘way of life’ job as victory on path to Elysee: French far-right opposition leader Marine Le Pen waded into controversy over the appointment of an EU Commissioner for ‘protecting the European way of life,’ endorsing a move that has stoked concern about rising populism across the continent.”

Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million

Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.

Tim Gosling, Al Jazeera: “Slovakia tries to shake off mafia influence: Evidence is mounting that the populist Smer party allowed mafia-linked groups to extend influence deep into Slovakia.”

Reuters: “Slovak Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini survived a no-confidence vote on Tuesday, days after losing his formal majority in parliament and as revelations about the reach of the main suspect in the murder of a journalist shake his government.”

Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

Serbia’s last snap parliamentary elections, in April 2016, resulted in a renewed majority for Prime Minister Alexander Vucic’s nationalist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia.

Gordana Filipovic, Bloomberg: “Serbia’s president is promising to put more cash in workers’ wallets, a goal he may struggle to achieve as he pivots away from years of austerity to solidify his ruling party’s position before elections next year.”

Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “The Democratic Party (DS), the Social Democratic Party (SDS) and the Alliance for Serbia (SzS) have decided in today’s constituent session to boycott the next election. The three parties will continue to actively and permanently fight for establishing conditions for free and fair elections, as well as communicate with the European Parliament, international organizations and representatives in the fight for democratic electoral conditions.”

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Reuters: “Britons would prefer Liberal Democrats over the Labour Party in a potential general election, according to a new YouGov poll for The Times newspaper. The poll puts the Liberal Democrats’ support at 23%, up four points from last week, and the Labour Party at 21%, two points down. The Conservative Party is at 32%, unchanged from a week ago, the poll showed.”

BBC: “Lib Dems pledge to cancel Brexit if they win general election”

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million

Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition. After months of speculation, the coalition collapsed when the League’s Matteo Salvini pulled out, in a ploy to trigger a new election. However, Five Star then formed another (equally fragile) coalition with former Prime Minster Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party (PD). Renzi then announced that he was leaving PD to start a new centrist party, but would still back the government. The coalition could collapse yet again, and snap elections are still very much a possibility.

Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”

DW: “Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on Tuesday announced his decision to leave the center-left Democratic Party (PD) to form his own centrist-leaning party in a move that could destabilize Rome’s new government.”

Reuters: “Renzi, who led a PD administration from 2014-2016, was instrumental in piecing together the new coalition after the far-right League walked out of its previous alliance with 5-Star in the misguided hope of triggering an early election.”

The Economist: “He once revelled in the nickname rottamatore, “demolition man”. That was meant to reflect his energy, determination and reforming zeal. But the greatest destruction the former prime minister wreaked was on his own party, which split once before while he was in office. He may not have finished demolishing it yet.”

Carmelo Camili, Reuters: “Italy’s far-right League will unleash a battery of referendums to try to sink reforms planned by the new government, party leader Matteo Salvini said on Sunday, denouncing his former coalition allies as traitors.”

Past Elections
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.4 million

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental and transportation issues played a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters chose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

Nina Berglund, News In English Norway: “Political chaos and uncertainty have replaced what seemed to have been clear victories for several government coalitions in cities all over Norway, not least in Oslo. Tough deal-making and political horse-trading can alter the initially perceived results of last week’s local election, as voters’ angry green tidal wave recedes.”

David Nikel, News from Norway: “Norway’s centre-right four party project is once again at risk of collapse, this time over immigration. It is the latest in an increasingly long list of problems for the four-party coalition government. Before the recent elections, the government nearly fell in a row over road tolls.”

The Year Ahead: Europe
Portugal, Madeira regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Kosovo snap parliamentary (October 6); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Spain snap parliamentary (November 10 – not officially called, but highly likely); Croatia presidential (December); France municipal (March 15-11); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (due by April – snap possible); Poland presidential (May); Iceland presidential (June); Romania local and possibly snap parliamentary (June)

 


Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez campaigning in 2017. Spain is almost certainly headed to the polls again later this year. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Marta Jara, El Diario (CC BY-SA 3.0 ES)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

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