Upcoming Elections
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
RFE/RL: “The United States and Belarus plan to resume hosting ambassadors after an 11-year hiatus amid mutual growing concern over Russia’s foreign-policy adventures.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
JAMnews: “Distrust of the government is growing Georgia – a recent study published by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and CRRC-Georgia shows that sixty percent of respondents negatively assess government activities. The figure is up 12% from December last year, when government activity was negatively assessed by 48 percent.”
Updated September 20, 2019
Reuters: “Thousands of people gathered in the center of Georgian capital Tbilisi on Friday for a protest against the government and ruling Georgian Dream Party, three months after the brutal dispersal of an anti-Kremlin demonstration….The protest movement has presented Georgia’s government with the biggest domestic challenge to its authority in years and ahead of 2020 parliamentary election.”
Civil.ge: “On September 20, the three months long Tbilisi protests outside the Parliament building that have subsided during the summer lull, marked the end by large-scale ‘together against the one‘ rally. The organizers moved to a new action plan, which aims at mobilizing the public for the 2020 parliamentary elections against the ruling Georgian Dream party.”
Past Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Jason Rhode, Paste: “Is Vladimir Putin Losing Power? The Elections in Russia, Explained”
Joseph Dresen, The Hill: “Despite the best efforts of performers, costumed mascots, and caterers outside polling stations, the turnout for the recent regional elections in Russia, particularly in Moscow, was low. The result was far from electoral defeat for President Vladimir Putin and his team….Nevertheless, the main election result is that Russians are starting to tune out Putin and his message.”
Regina Smyth, The Conversation: “Opposition strategy created important longer-term dynamics. The opposition faction in the City Council rose from 12.5% to 44%, revealing Russians’ potential to make demands on government. Around the world, when biased elections become competitive, disengaged voters quickly reengage.”
Robert Coalson, RFE/RL: “Analysis: After ‘Significant’ Regional Elections, Russia’s Opposition Looks To The Future”
Oliver Carroll, The Independent: “‘Shaman walking across Russia to ‘exorcise Putin’ arrested on ‘terrorism’ charges: Alexander Gabyshev was attempting to walk 5,000 miles from Siberia to banish ‘demon’ president.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Eurasianet: “Explainer: Why Armenia’s ex-president is on trial: Robert Kocharyan, Armenia’s former president, is standing trial in Yerevan for ‘overthrowing the constitutional order.’ We explain.”
Armen Grigoryan, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Standoff Between Armenian Government and Former Regime Continues”
Aram Terzyan, Emerging Europe: “Beyond the revolutions: Ukraine and Armenia between authoritarian resistance and authoritarian legacy”
Eurasia
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Posted: September 21, 2019 by 21votes
September 19, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Upcoming Elections
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
RFE/RL: “The United States and Belarus plan to resume hosting ambassadors after an 11-year hiatus amid mutual growing concern over Russia’s foreign-policy adventures.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
JAMnews: “Distrust of the government is growing Georgia – a recent study published by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and CRRC-Georgia shows that sixty percent of respondents negatively assess government activities. The figure is up 12% from December last year, when government activity was negatively assessed by 48 percent.”
Updated September 20, 2019
Reuters: “Thousands of people gathered in the center of Georgian capital Tbilisi on Friday for a protest against the government and ruling Georgian Dream Party, three months after the brutal dispersal of an anti-Kremlin demonstration….The protest movement has presented Georgia’s government with the biggest domestic challenge to its authority in years and ahead of 2020 parliamentary election.”
Civil.ge: “On September 20, the three months long Tbilisi protests outside the Parliament building that have subsided during the summer lull, marked the end by large-scale ‘together against the one‘ rally. The organizers moved to a new action plan, which aims at mobilizing the public for the 2020 parliamentary elections against the ruling Georgian Dream party.”
Past Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Jason Rhode, Paste: “Is Vladimir Putin Losing Power? The Elections in Russia, Explained”
Joseph Dresen, The Hill: “Despite the best efforts of performers, costumed mascots, and caterers outside polling stations, the turnout for the recent regional elections in Russia, particularly in Moscow, was low. The result was far from electoral defeat for President Vladimir Putin and his team….Nevertheless, the main election result is that Russians are starting to tune out Putin and his message.”
Regina Smyth, The Conversation: “Opposition strategy created important longer-term dynamics. The opposition faction in the City Council rose from 12.5% to 44%, revealing Russians’ potential to make demands on government. Around the world, when biased elections become competitive, disengaged voters quickly reengage.”
Robert Coalson, RFE/RL: “Analysis: After ‘Significant’ Regional Elections, Russia’s Opposition Looks To The Future”
Oliver Carroll, The Independent: “‘Shaman walking across Russia to ‘exorcise Putin’ arrested on ‘terrorism’ charges: Alexander Gabyshev was attempting to walk 5,000 miles from Siberia to banish ‘demon’ president.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Eurasianet: “Explainer: Why Armenia’s ex-president is on trial: Robert Kocharyan, Armenia’s former president, is standing trial in Yerevan for ‘overthrowing the constitutional order.’ We explain.”
Armen Grigoryan, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Standoff Between Armenian Government and Former Regime Continues”
Aram Terzyan, Emerging Europe: “Beyond the revolutions: Ukraine and Armenia between authoritarian resistance and authoritarian legacy”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
Photo credit: Wikimedia/Shuvaev (CC BY-SA 4.0)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Russia