Upcoming Elections
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) centrist political alliance, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government.

The main contenders in the upcoming election are Likud, Blue and White, and a number of smaller parties, some of which hope to be kingmakers following the election.

Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.

Maayan Lubell, Reuters: “Explainer: Israel’s election – will Netanyahu survive? Israelis vote next week for the second time in less than six months in a election that could see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu win a record fifth term – or end his decade-long dominance of Israeli politics.”

Ruth Eglash, Washington Post: “Israel’s do-over election this month may yield another deadlock. Then what happens?”

Bernard Avishai, The New Yorker: “Over the summer, unprecedented alliances across the political spectrum have made Netanyahu seem more vulnerable than he has since the first time he lost office, in 1999.”

AFP/Times of Israel: “Netanyahu to meet Putin in Russia five days before election: PM confirms he will visit Sochi on Thursday instead of nixed India trip, amid push to attract support of Russian-speaking voters ahead of September 17 vote.”

DW: “Netanyahu vows to annex part of West Bank after Israel election: Israel’s prime minister said he plans to annex the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank if he wins next week’s election. The EU, Palestinian and Arab officials condemned the plan as blow to peace.”

Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.

The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest. Twenty-six candidates are running for president and the election looks to be highly competitive, and the results far from certain. Leading candidates include Ennadha’s Abdelfattah Mourou, who comes from the party’s moderate wing; Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a secularist who split off from Nidaa Tounes; media mogul Nabil Karoui, another secularist also split off from Nidaa Tounes; and technocrat Mehdi Jomaa, a former industry minister and acting prime minister.

Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.

France24: “Days before the first round of Tunisia’s presidential election, the fledgling democracy presented the first of three nights of televised debates between the candidates on Saturday, a rarity in the Arab world.”

AFP: “Twenty-six candidates, including two women, are vying to replace Tunisia’s late leader Beji Caid Essebsi in Sunday’s presidential polls. Here are brief profiles of the main hopefuls….”

Al Jazeera: “Infographic: Tunisia presidential election at a glance – An overview of Tunisia’s presidential election, the voting system and the main contenders.”

Michael Safi, The Guardian: “Tunisia’s presidential election to put young democracy to the test. Arab spring’s sole democratic state has proved resilient despite anger over price rises.”

Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.

David E. Sanger and Mujub Mashal, New York Times: “President Trump’s decision to break off peace talks with the Taliban, at least for now, left Afghanistan bracing for a bloody prelude to national elections this month, while the administration declined on Sunday to rule out a withdrawal of American troops without a peace accord.

Mujib Mashal, David Zucchino, and Fatima Faizi, New York Times: “In Trump’s Taliban Snub, a Shift of Fortune for Afghanistan’s President: Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani, appeared increasingly trapped in recent months in a demoralizing swim against the political tides — until President Trump, inadvertently, tossed him a lifeline.”

Cara Anna, AP: “Now, with an agreement to end America’s longest war on hold, Afghanistan suddenly faces a presidential vote amid warnings that it’s not ready — and the threat of even more violence.”

Reuters: “The European Union’s special envoy for Afghanistan Roland Kobia said on Sunday presidential elections must be held this month as the country needs a political leadership that has received a renewed democratic mandate from its citizens.”

Al Jazeera: “Security tight as election materials land in Afghanistan: Materials arrive before presidential elections and under guard due to past Taliban threats.”

Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.

Aomar Ouali, AP: “Tens of thousands of protesters piled once again onto the streets of the Algerian capital and other cities Friday [September 6] with many rejecting the army chief’s call for presidential elections before the end of the year. This week’s pro-democracy protest, the 29th in a row, is seen as a test of the continued strength of the movement and a way to gauge the temperature of Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah’s call this week to set a date by Sept. 15 for presidential elections. That would mean voting would be held by law 90 days later — in mid-December.”

Reuters: “Algerian Prime Minister Noureddine Bedoui will resign soon to pave the way for elections this year that the army sees as the only way to end a standoff over months of protests, two senior sources told Reuters on Tuesday [September 10].”

Palestinian Authority Legislative – Due by July 2019 (postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (in both Gaza and West Bank) 
Population: West Bank – 2.8 million; 1.8 million (Gaza)

Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006. Islamist fundamentalist Hamas won in a landslide. Municipal elections – boycotted by Hamas – have happened three times – in 2004-2005 in both Gaza and the West Bank and in 2012 and 2017 in the West Bank. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a deadlocked conflict between the Gaza-baed Hamas and Abbas’s secularist Fatah, based in the West Bank.

AFP/Times of Israel: “As Israel returns to polls, Palestinian democracy in stasis: Factional rivalries, infighting and Israeli restrictions have left the ‘first Arab democracy’ without elections since 2006.”

Past Elections
Turkey Local – March 31, 2019 (Istanbul mayoral re-run June 23, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 81.3 million

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.

Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections. The two biggest parties competing would likely be the conservative and increasingly populist and authoritarian AKP,  and center-left secularist CHP, which was founded by Atatürk himself. Other contenders will include the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), currently AKP’s junior coalition partner; and center-right İyi (Good) Party, which favors a return to a parliamentary system and courts conservative voters who oppose Erdogan.

In August 2019, the Turkish government removed three mayors from Kurdish-majority provinces. The mayors had won in landslides in the March local elections, and their removal – on accusations of terrorism – sparked fury among the opposition and among certain groups within AKP. Notably, Ahmet Davutoğlu, a former prime minister, and Abdullah Gül, a former president – both of AKP – criticized the move.

Laura Pitel, Financial Times: “Erdogan’s electoral setbacks unleash crackdown on opposition: Latest sign is ten-year prison sentence for top Istanbul politician”

Ezel Sahinkaya, VOA: “The leading figure from Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is facing almost 10 years in prison on terror charges. Canan Kaftancioglu, 47, was sentenced Friday to nine years, eight months and 20 days in prison….The charges against Kaftancioglu were raised based on several social media posts she made over the course of several years.”

Reuters: “Former Turkish deputy prime minister Ali Babacan will form a new political party by the end of the year to challenge President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, announcing his intentions in an interview published Tuesday after months of speculation.”

The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential and parliamentary (September 15 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)

A ballot box in Israel. Photo credit: Wikimedia/יעקב (CC BY-SA 3.0)

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