Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
AllAfrica: “The campaign ahead of Mozambique’s general elections, scheduled for 15 October, ran peacefully for the first two days, but there was an alarming rise in violence and political intolerance, in the subsequent period, according to the ‘Sala da Paz’ (‘Peace Room’), a coalition of election observation bodies.”
Jason Horowitz, New York Times: “Pope Francis, in Africa, Urges Mozambique to Put Past Tensions Aside The pontiff is on a three-country tour of Africa, where he plans to emphasize the continent’s role in the future of the Roman Catholic Church.”
Justin Pearce, The Conversation: “What must happen for Mozambique to have lasting peace after accord”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Nick Dall, OZY: “Botswana, where elephants are key election stakeholders”
Mpho Tebele, Southern Times: “Botswana will hold its general election on 23 October, President Mokgweetsi Masisi has announced. The announcement came after Masisi dissolved the parliament recently.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi.
Ahmed Tahir Ajobe, The Daily Trust (Nigeria): “Two persons were killed during the All Progressives Congress (APC) primary ahead of the November local government election in Niger State. It was gathered that the two persons were killed on Saturday [September 7] when the exercise turned bloody.”
Nasir Ayitogo, Premium Times (Nigeria): “Nigeria’s electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has closed the nomination of candidates by political parties fielding candidates in the November 16 governorship elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States.”
Updated September 11, 2019
AFP: “A Nigerian court on Wednesday upheld President Muhammadu Buhari’s election victory earlier this year, dismissing a request by opposition parties to overturn the result over claims of voting irregularities.”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Kenya: Odinga’s crucial Kibra by-election approaches: A by-election in a Nairobi constituency is widening the rifts inside Kenya’s governing party. This comes as the main opposition party prepares to defend a seat, historically linked to its leader.”
Otieno Otieno, The East African: “But away from the open grounds and streets of Kibra, the battle for the hearts and minds of voters has been raging online for weeks….’We are in for a very difficult future. Remember that in 2007 we didn’t even have WhatsApp to deal with,’ says Prof Ndemo.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
The Citizen (Tanzania): “Tanzania opposition express fears over forthcoming local government elections”
Namibia Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.5 million
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, Swapo’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Swapo will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
Shinovene Immanuel and Sakeus Iikela, The Namibian: “President Hage Geingob’s loyalists won big at last weekend’s Swapo electoral college, but there are signs that his slate is starting to show cracks, with certain ministers and allies being given the boot. Around 200 Swapo members met in Windhoek over the weekend to finalise a list of 96 politicians who will be in the running to take up seats in the National Assembly.”
Selma Ikela, New Era (Namibia): “Swapo youth were once again outwitted at the party’s electoral college over the weekend, but President Hage Geingob’s grip on the party tightened further as those perceived to be his staunch supporters retained their place on the party’s parliamentary list….The [Swapo Party Youth League] at its last congress resolved to push for at least 40 percent representation in the National Assembly, something that seems to have prompted party elders to form a block of their own and thus outmaneuver the young turks.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Abdourahamane Sano (Guinean NGO leader), The Africa Report: “Why Emmanuel Macron has to tell Alpha Condé to stop….Condé’s two five-year terms in power expires in 2020. But, at 81, he wants to change the Constitution to allow him to run for a third term during the next presidential election. He’ll undoubtedly need Macron’s support to change the constitution. But, in the interests of Guinea and France, and for the stability of the West African region, Macron must oppose it.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Moki Kindzeka, DW: “Treason trial of Cameroon president’s arch-rival opens: President Paul Biya’s rival in a 2018 presidential race, Maurice Kamto, and his 90 co-accused appeared briefly before a military tribunal on charges of insurrection and rebellion after rejecting the vote.”
Sara Khairat, Al Jazeera (video): “Cameroon: Opposition leader’s trial condemned: Judges in Cameroon have adjourned the trial of main opposition leader Maurice Kamto and dozens of other politicians after one of them collapsed in court.”
Carolyn Born, DW: “German risks life in Cameroon jail over anti-government protest videos: A Cameroonian-born German citizen Wilfried S. was detained in Yaounde in February over anti-government protest videos on his camera. His trial for allegedly trying to destablilize Cameroon is pending.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Mahlet Fasil, Addis Standard: “Despite complaints from the Joint Council of Political Parties, representing 107 opposition parties, and a threat to boycott Ethiopia’s 2020 general elections, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) chairwoman, Birtukan Mideksa, stood by the new Electoral and Political Parties Law of Ethiopia.”
APA: “Ethiopia expectant of about 50 million voters for May 2020 general elections.”
Reuters: “Blogger Befekadu Hailu’s eyes filled with tears as he stood on the spot where he had watched a guard attack a friend in Maekelawi detention center, a name long synonymous in Ethiopia with torture and fear. Befekadu returned to visit the former police station on Friday as a tourist, not an inmate, after the government opened the building to the public for three days as part of its push towards new democratic freedoms.”
Hilary Matfess and Alexander Noyes, Foreign Policy: “Why Ethiopia Sailed While Zimbabwe Sank: The countries’ leaders both promised change, but only one has delivered.”
Updated September 11, 2019
Yohannes Gedamu, The Conversation: “Since Abiy came to power, ethnic tensions have risen to the surface and bubbled over. In the current atmosphere even ordinary differences of opinion can incite violence. Levels of inter-ethnic intolerance are high.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Sam Mednick, World Politics Review: “Four years after President Pierre Nkurunziza decided to run for a controversial third term, leading to widespread protests and a government crackdown that killed more than 1,200 people and forced 400,000 to flee, this small East African country is still in the throes of political turmoil. With new elections less than a year away, tensions are rising as the government tightens its grip.”
Reuters: “U.N. outlines 8 reasons why 2020 Burundi vote is ‘risky’: The report by the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Burundi said there was a climate of fear and intimidation against anyone who did not show support for the ruling CNDD-FDD party. Police, security forces and the ruling party’s youth league, the Imbonerakure, had continued to commit serious human rights violations, including killings, disappearances, torture and gang rape of people allegedly opposed to President Pierre Nkurunziza.”
Lisa Schlein, VOA: “The U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Burundi said Wednesday that the country, following years of political turmoil, was primed for a genocide.”
UN Commission of Inquiry on Burundi: “Serious human rights violations have continued to be committed in Burundi since May 2018, in a general climate of impunity. Some of these violations constitute international crimes.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Anna Sylvestre-Treiner and Benjamin Roger, The Africa Report: “Life after power – Burkina Faso: Blaise Compaoré, homesick blues: Exiled in Côte d’Ivoire since 2014, the former head of state lives comfortably, but dreams of the day when he can finally return to his home in Burkina Faso.”
DW: “Burkina Faso: Twin ‘terrorist attacks’ leave dozens dead: Violence has been growing in Burkina Faso as armed Islamic groups spill over the porous border with Mali. These latest deadly attacks show how one of the world’s poorest countries is struggling to contain the problem.”
Updated September 10, 2019
Catherine Wambua-Soi, Al-Jazeera: “The further north, the more dangerous it is: On the Burkina Faso front line. Authorities struggle to tackle a worsening security situation that has forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Vincent Duhem, The Africa Report: “Côte d’Ivoire: New government to prepare for elections”
Senegal Local – Late 2020 (postponed from December 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Africa Intelligence: “Macky Sall marshals troops for local elections: The postponement of local elections from December 2019 until late 2020 has given the Senegalese president an extra year in which to gear up his party, the APR, for the electoral battle.”
Moussa Diaw, The Conversation: “The secretary general of Senegal’s Socialist Party, Ousmane Tanor Dieng, died in July this year. There are concerns that his death will intensify divides in the Party’s leadership. This threatens the future of a party that has shaped Senegalese politics since 1948, before independence.”
Simon Allison, Mail and Guardian: “How Big Data – and lessons from Obama – swung Senegal’s presidential election”
South Sudan General – 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million
South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.
South Sudan has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.
Reuters: “Former South Sudanese rebel leader Riek Machar is due to make a rare visit to the capital Juba on Monday and meet President Salva Kiir, officials said on Monday, raising hopes for progress in a stalled peace process. The two men signed a pact a year ago to end a civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced a third of the population and wrecked the economy.”
AP: “South Sudan is slowly emerging from five years of civil war that killed almost 400,000 people and displaced millions. A fragile peace deal was signed last September, but so far it’s been marked by delays and continued fighting in parts of the country.”
Biong Deng Biong, Sudan Tribune: “President Kiir: The Nelson Mandela of South Sudan?”
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Yasir Zaidan, Foreign Policy: “How to Make Sudan’s Revolution Succeed: Previous uprisings have failed due to squabbling among elites, poor civil-military relations, and a lack of economic development. Both sides of the transitional government must avoid past mistakes.”
Past Elections
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 14 million
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation. Mugabe died in September 2019.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
ZBC: “By-elections produce no surprises: Zanu PF has retained the Mangwe National Assembly and Masvingo North Ward 1 council seats, but lost Harare’s Glenview South National Assembly seat to the opposition MDC.”
Takunda Shumba, ZW News: “MDC’s Vincent Tsvangirai wins Glen View South by-election”
Tapiwa Chagonda, The Conversation: “Zimbabwe’s deepening crisis: time for second government of national unity?”
BBC: “Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s strongman ex-president, dies aged 95”
Steven Gruzd, The Atlantic: “Robert Mugabe’s Journey From Freedom Fighter to Oppressor: The Zimbabwean-liberation leader showed how, despite leading a struggle against colonial rule, he was ill-equipped for the challenges of government.”
Robin Wright, The New Yorker: “Robert Mugabe and the future of democracy in Africa”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012. The election became source of tension between Kenya, which backed incumbent, and Ethiopia, which has grown closer to the government in Mogadishu. Kenya views the incumbent, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, as an important security partner, but he has a frosty relationship with the central government in Mogadishu (which is looking to bring Jubaland and other states under closer central control). Madobe won the election, but Somalia’s president did not accept the result, and has challenged it.
Fred Oluoch, The East African: “Jubbaland’s Madobe not yet out of the woods: Last month’s re-election of Jubbaland state’s President Sheikh Ahmed Islam Madobe has been challenged in court.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology.
Chancy Namadzunda, Nyasa Times: “Done with two witnesses, lawyers for Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) and President Peter Mutharika who are the respondents at the Constitutional Court hearing the presidential election petition case have expressed their satisfaction with the progress of the proceedings.”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
Romain Gras and Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, The Africa Report: “DRC: Who’s who in the new ministerial crew”
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Carolyn Holmes, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “What’s behind South Africa’s xenophobic violence last week? Violence against immigrants has sparked a diplomatic crisis.”
Howard W. French, World Politics Review: “South Africa’s Xenophobic Turn Against Other Africans Is a National Failure”
Africa This Week – September 9, 2019
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Last Updated: September 17, 2019 by 21votes
September 9, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi.
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Senegal Local - Late 2020 (postponed from December 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
Namibia Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.5 million
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, Swapo’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Swapo will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
South Sudan General - 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million
South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.
South Sudan has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 14 million
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation. Mugabe died in September 2019.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012. The election became source of tension between Kenya, which backed incumbent, and Ethiopia, which has grown closer to the government in Mogadishu. Kenya views the incumbent, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, as an important security partner, but he has a frosty relationship with the central government in Mogadishu (which is looking to bring Jubaland and other states under closer central control). Madobe won the election, but Somalia’s president did not accept the result, and has challenged it.
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology.
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
AllAfrica: “The campaign ahead of Mozambique’s general elections, scheduled for 15 October, ran peacefully for the first two days, but there was an alarming rise in violence and political intolerance, in the subsequent period, according to the ‘Sala da Paz’ (‘Peace Room’), a coalition of election observation bodies.”
Jason Horowitz, New York Times: “Pope Francis, in Africa, Urges Mozambique to Put Past Tensions Aside The pontiff is on a three-country tour of Africa, where he plans to emphasize the continent’s role in the future of the Roman Catholic Church.”
Justin Pearce, The Conversation: “What must happen for Mozambique to have lasting peace after accord”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing). Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama, protagonist of the 2017 film A United Kingdom – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to form a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. The split could open up debate on actual policy, or it could devolve into a personal power struggle.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Nick Dall, OZY: “Botswana, where elephants are key election stakeholders”
Mpho Tebele, Southern Times: “Botswana will hold its general election on 23 October, President Mokgweetsi Masisi has announced. The announcement came after Masisi dissolved the parliament recently.”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi.
Ahmed Tahir Ajobe, The Daily Trust (Nigeria): “Two persons were killed during the All Progressives Congress (APC) primary ahead of the November local government election in Niger State. It was gathered that the two persons were killed on Saturday [September 7] when the exercise turned bloody.”
Nasir Ayitogo, Premium Times (Nigeria): “Nigeria’s electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has closed the nomination of candidates by political parties fielding candidates in the November 16 governorship elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States.”
Updated September 11, 2019
AFP: “A Nigerian court on Wednesday upheld President Muhammadu Buhari’s election victory earlier this year, dismissing a request by opposition parties to overturn the result over claims of voting irregularities.”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Morris Kiruga, The Africa Report: “Kenya: Odinga’s crucial Kibra by-election approaches: A by-election in a Nairobi constituency is widening the rifts inside Kenya’s governing party. This comes as the main opposition party prepares to defend a seat, historically linked to its leader.”
Otieno Otieno, The East African: “But away from the open grounds and streets of Kibra, the battle for the hearts and minds of voters has been raging online for weeks….’We are in for a very difficult future. Remember that in 2007 we didn’t even have WhatsApp to deal with,’ says Prof Ndemo.”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
The Citizen (Tanzania): “Tanzania opposition express fears over forthcoming local government elections”
Namibia Presidential and Legislative – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.5 million
Namibia is a free, stable democracy. Since independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibian politics have been dominated by the socialist Swapo, an independence movement-turned-political party. In the 2014 elections, judged free, fair, and credible by observers, Swapo’s presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, won 87 percent of the vote. The party also won 80 percent of votes in the legislative elections. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Swapo will win the 2019 elections but its majority will decrease.
Shinovene Immanuel and Sakeus Iikela, The Namibian: “President Hage Geingob’s loyalists won big at last weekend’s Swapo electoral college, but there are signs that his slate is starting to show cracks, with certain ministers and allies being given the boot. Around 200 Swapo members met in Windhoek over the weekend to finalise a list of 96 politicians who will be in the running to take up seats in the National Assembly.”
Selma Ikela, New Era (Namibia): “Swapo youth were once again outwitted at the party’s electoral college over the weekend, but President Hage Geingob’s grip on the party tightened further as those perceived to be his staunch supporters retained their place on the party’s parliamentary list….The [Swapo Party Youth League] at its last congress resolved to push for at least 40 percent representation in the National Assembly, something that seems to have prompted party elders to form a block of their own and thus outmaneuver the young turks.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Abdourahamane Sano (Guinean NGO leader), The Africa Report: “Why Emmanuel Macron has to tell Alpha Condé to stop….Condé’s two five-year terms in power expires in 2020. But, at 81, he wants to change the Constitution to allow him to run for a third term during the next presidential election. He’ll undoubtedly need Macron’s support to change the constitution. But, in the interests of Guinea and France, and for the stability of the West African region, Macron must oppose it.”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Moki Kindzeka, DW: “Treason trial of Cameroon president’s arch-rival opens: President Paul Biya’s rival in a 2018 presidential race, Maurice Kamto, and his 90 co-accused appeared briefly before a military tribunal on charges of insurrection and rebellion after rejecting the vote.”
Sara Khairat, Al Jazeera (video): “Cameroon: Opposition leader’s trial condemned: Judges in Cameroon have adjourned the trial of main opposition leader Maurice Kamto and dozens of other politicians after one of them collapsed in court.”
Carolyn Born, DW: “German risks life in Cameroon jail over anti-government protest videos: A Cameroonian-born German citizen Wilfried S. was detained in Yaounde in February over anti-government protest videos on his camera. His trial for allegedly trying to destablilize Cameroon is pending.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Mahlet Fasil, Addis Standard: “Despite complaints from the Joint Council of Political Parties, representing 107 opposition parties, and a threat to boycott Ethiopia’s 2020 general elections, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) chairwoman, Birtukan Mideksa, stood by the new Electoral and Political Parties Law of Ethiopia.”
APA: “Ethiopia expectant of about 50 million voters for May 2020 general elections.”
Reuters: “Blogger Befekadu Hailu’s eyes filled with tears as he stood on the spot where he had watched a guard attack a friend in Maekelawi detention center, a name long synonymous in Ethiopia with torture and fear. Befekadu returned to visit the former police station on Friday as a tourist, not an inmate, after the government opened the building to the public for three days as part of its push towards new democratic freedoms.”
Hilary Matfess and Alexander Noyes, Foreign Policy: “Why Ethiopia Sailed While Zimbabwe Sank: The countries’ leaders both promised change, but only one has delivered.”
Updated September 11, 2019
Yohannes Gedamu, The Conversation: “Since Abiy came to power, ethnic tensions have risen to the surface and bubbled over. In the current atmosphere even ordinary differences of opinion can incite violence. Levels of inter-ethnic intolerance are high.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Sam Mednick, World Politics Review: “Four years after President Pierre Nkurunziza decided to run for a controversial third term, leading to widespread protests and a government crackdown that killed more than 1,200 people and forced 400,000 to flee, this small East African country is still in the throes of political turmoil. With new elections less than a year away, tensions are rising as the government tightens its grip.”
Reuters: “U.N. outlines 8 reasons why 2020 Burundi vote is ‘risky’: The report by the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Burundi said there was a climate of fear and intimidation against anyone who did not show support for the ruling CNDD-FDD party. Police, security forces and the ruling party’s youth league, the Imbonerakure, had continued to commit serious human rights violations, including killings, disappearances, torture and gang rape of people allegedly opposed to President Pierre Nkurunziza.”
Lisa Schlein, VOA: “The U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Burundi said Wednesday that the country, following years of political turmoil, was primed for a genocide.”
UN Commission of Inquiry on Burundi: “Serious human rights violations have continued to be committed in Burundi since May 2018, in a general climate of impunity. Some of these violations constitute international crimes.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Anna Sylvestre-Treiner and Benjamin Roger, The Africa Report: “Life after power – Burkina Faso: Blaise Compaoré, homesick blues: Exiled in Côte d’Ivoire since 2014, the former head of state lives comfortably, but dreams of the day when he can finally return to his home in Burkina Faso.”
DW: “Burkina Faso: Twin ‘terrorist attacks’ leave dozens dead: Violence has been growing in Burkina Faso as armed Islamic groups spill over the porous border with Mali. These latest deadly attacks show how one of the world’s poorest countries is struggling to contain the problem.”
Updated September 10, 2019
Catherine Wambua-Soi, Al-Jazeera: “The further north, the more dangerous it is: On the Burkina Faso front line. Authorities struggle to tackle a worsening security situation that has forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
This elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the 2020 election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993. Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans. Houphouët-Boigny emphasized free market capitalism, and was a staunch ally of the West during the Cold War. However, he was an authoritarian – the only legal political party was his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA).
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny trounced Laurent Gbagbo and his socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), which had been founded in exile in 1982, in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
However, Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (although he was acquitted in 2019). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Vincent Duhem, The Africa Report: “Côte d’Ivoire: New government to prepare for elections”
Senegal Local – Late 2020 (postponed from December 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Africa Intelligence: “Macky Sall marshals troops for local elections: The postponement of local elections from December 2019 until late 2020 has given the Senegalese president an extra year in which to gear up his party, the APR, for the electoral battle.”
Moussa Diaw, The Conversation: “The secretary general of Senegal’s Socialist Party, Ousmane Tanor Dieng, died in July this year. There are concerns that his death will intensify divides in the Party’s leadership. This threatens the future of a party that has shaped Senegalese politics since 1948, before independence.”
Simon Allison, Mail and Guardian: “How Big Data – and lessons from Obama – swung Senegal’s presidential election”
South Sudan General – 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million
South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.
South Sudan has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.
Reuters: “Former South Sudanese rebel leader Riek Machar is due to make a rare visit to the capital Juba on Monday and meet President Salva Kiir, officials said on Monday, raising hopes for progress in a stalled peace process. The two men signed a pact a year ago to end a civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced a third of the population and wrecked the economy.”
AP: “South Sudan is slowly emerging from five years of civil war that killed almost 400,000 people and displaced millions. A fragile peace deal was signed last September, but so far it’s been marked by delays and continued fighting in parts of the country.”
Biong Deng Biong, Sudan Tribune: “President Kiir: The Nelson Mandela of South Sudan?”
Sudan General – 2022
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 43.1 million
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. In June 2019, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime. In August 2019, military officers and civilian leaders reached an agreement to share power until elections in 2022.
Yasir Zaidan, Foreign Policy: “How to Make Sudan’s Revolution Succeed: Previous uprisings have failed due to squabbling among elites, poor civil-military relations, and a lack of economic development. Both sides of the transitional government must avoid past mistakes.”
Past Elections
Zimbabwe National Assembly By-Elections, Glen View South and Mangwe constituencies – September 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (improved from Not Free in 2019)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 14 million
A coup in 2017 led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Mugabe had ruled Zimbabwe with the aid of former Soviet security advice since the transition of apartheid rule in 1979. The 2018 elections for parliament and president had a number of flaws but nonetheless did offer the hope of some semblance of democratic legitimacy to the government. Emmerson Mnangagwa of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF – a former intelligence chief nicknamed “The Crocodile” – narrowly won the presidential race, and promised “radical economic reforms.” However, critics say those reforms have not materialized as of yet, and a violent crackdown on the opposition following the elections echoed Mugabe’s tactics. Zimbabweans live with extreme poverty, food insecurity, and hyperinflation. Mugabe died in September 2019.
The Glen View South seat became vacant when Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java, the daughter of Mugabe’s main rival the late Morgan Tsvangirai, died in a car crash. Tsvangirai was leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and members of his family still serve in the party. The Mangwe seat became vacant when ZANU-PF’s Obedingwa Mguni died of an illness. Glen VIew is near the capital, Harare, in the northeast of the country, and Mangwe is near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, in the southwest of the country.
ZBC: “By-elections produce no surprises: Zanu PF has retained the Mangwe National Assembly and Masvingo North Ward 1 council seats, but lost Harare’s Glenview South National Assembly seat to the opposition MDC.”
Takunda Shumba, ZW News: “MDC’s Vincent Tsvangirai wins Glen View South by-election”
Tapiwa Chagonda, The Conversation: “Zimbabwe’s deepening crisis: time for second government of national unity?”
BBC: “Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s strongman ex-president, dies aged 95”
Steven Gruzd, The Atlantic: “Robert Mugabe’s Journey From Freedom Fighter to Oppressor: The Zimbabwean-liberation leader showed how, despite leading a struggle against colonial rule, he was ill-equipped for the challenges of government.”
Robin Wright, The New Yorker: “Robert Mugabe and the future of democracy in Africa”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Jubaland is rich in natural resources, raising the stakes of the election. Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, this month saw the biggest terrorist attack since an action led by Kenyan soldiers ousted al-Shabab from the city in 2012. The election became source of tension between Kenya, which backed incumbent, and Ethiopia, which has grown closer to the government in Mogadishu. Kenya views the incumbent, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, as an important security partner, but he has a frosty relationship with the central government in Mogadishu (which is looking to bring Jubaland and other states under closer central control). Madobe won the election, but Somalia’s president did not accept the result, and has challenged it.
Fred Oluoch, The East African: “Jubbaland’s Madobe not yet out of the woods: Last month’s re-election of Jubbaland state’s President Sheikh Ahmed Islam Madobe has been challenged in court.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology.
Chancy Namadzunda, Nyasa Times: “Done with two witnesses, lawyers for Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) and President Peter Mutharika who are the respondents at the Constitutional Court hearing the presidential election petition case have expressed their satisfaction with the progress of the proceedings.”
Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 85.3 million
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country, but both have returned. The opposition holds that Kabila is still in control.
The DRC is scheduled to hold long-overdue local elections on September 22, 2019, elections that have been postponed numerous times since 2006. The Independent National Election Commission (CENI) has not yet begun preparations, making another delay almost certain.
Romain Gras and Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, The Africa Report: “DRC: Who’s who in the new ministerial crew”
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Carolyn Holmes, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “What’s behind South Africa’s xenophobic violence last week? Violence against immigrants has sparked a diplomatic crisis.”
Howard W. French, World Politics Review: “South Africa’s Xenophobic Turn Against Other Africans Is a National Failure”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Togo local by-elections (August 15); Namibia Oshakati East by-election (August 24); Zimbabwe by-elections (September Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Madagascar communal (due October 28 but postponed – new date not set); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
Zimbabwean strongman Robert Mugabe and his wife, Grace, in 2013, sporting gear with the logo of their political party, Zanu PF. Mugabe died on September 6. Photo credit: Wikimedia/DandjkRoberts (CC BY-SA 3.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Zimbabwe