Upcoming Elections
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
The Economist: “In Argentina, Mauricio Macri’s dying government mimics its opponents: Argentina’s selective default and currency controls feel like the bad old days”
Michael Sheetz, CNBC: “A hedge fund reportedly lost $1 billion in August betting on Argentina’s economy recovering”
Jennifer Jacobs, Bloomberg: “The U.S. government approved $400 million in financing for Argentina’s road network during a visit by Ivanka Trump, the U.S. President’s daughter and adviser, to the Latin American country that’s struggling with a financial crisis on the eve of presidential elections.”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Carlos Guzmán Vedia, openDemocracy: “Devastating fires in Bolivia: a political tool: Uncontrolled fires linked to agricultural expansions are being used as a political tool during this election year in Bolivia and are causing catastrophic consequences.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Mathew Di Salvo, GlobalPost: “[Cauca mayoral candidate Karina] García is the sixth mayoral candidate to be assassinated in the year leading up to Colombia’s local and regional elections to be held on Oct. 27. Five city council candidates have also been murdered, according to Colombia’s independent electoral observers, who monitor elections.”
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s local elections: Ombudsman says violence a risk in half the country”
Updated September 8, 2019
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s local elections: 2nd mayor candidate assassinated in a week….Orley Garcia was shot dead by a masked man while campaigning with far-right Senator Santiago Valencia in Toledo, a town some 85 kilometers north of Medellin, according to his campaign team.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Leyland Cecco, The Guardian: “Justin Trudeau seeks to repeat 2015 surge as Canada braces for election: The prime minister is likely to call a vote for next month in which the environment, populism and Trump are all expected to feature.”
Updated September 10, 2019
David Moscrop, Washington Post: “Ahead of elections, Canadians must be vigilant about misinformation online”
Preston Lim, Lawfare: “The two parties are battling on a whole host of issues, ranging from climate change and the environment to the government’s economic policies. And for the first time in decades, foreign policy is set to play a large role in the Canadian electoral campaign.”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Chief Elections Officer and team on Friday told the seven-member Guyana Elections Commission that the earliest the machinery can be ready for general elections is next year March.”
Loop Jamaica: “The Guyana Electoral Commission (GECOM) has sought the assistance of the Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ) with the finalising of the registration process for its electors.”
Craig Guthrie, Petroleum Economist: “Guyana tipped for another find: The frontier oil province is set for yet another significant investment opportunity. But political uncertainty is just one of the many myriad challenges the country faces before first oil.”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Trevor Sutton, The Hill: “Trump pushes failed Latin America policy now reflected in Guatemala….If there are any lessons in United States policy towards Central America, it is that pursuing political objectives in the short term at the expense of bolstering democracy and human rights only leads to more trouble down the road, often at great cost to the people living in these countries.”
Sonny Figueroa, AP: “Guatemala said goodbye Tuesday to a U.N. commission that has helped investigate and prosecute hundreds of corrupt politicians, public officials and businesspeople over the last 12 years….On Monday, police arrested former first lady and two-time presidential runner-up Sandra Torres, after her own immunity from prosecution expired following her loss to Giammattei last month.”
Lucas Perelló, Global Americans: “In hindsight, it seems ironic that Torres’ arrest coincided with the end of the CICIG’s mandate. The image of the CICIG leaving the country as Torres entered prison sends a strong message to corrupt politicians and autocrats across the region: indefinitely remaining in positions of power is the only way to avoid jail in countries with weak institutions. This is a sad lesson that Guatemalans will once again have to embrace following the CICIG’s departure.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Whitelaw Reid, UVA Today: “Q&A: What the Brazilian presidential election can teach us about fake news”
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “Trump’s ‘love affair’ with Brazil’s right-wing Bolsonaro could change Latin America’s political map.”
Americas This Week – September 7, 2019
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Last Updated: September 16, 2019 by 21votes
September 7, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Upcoming Elections
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million
On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent.
The Economist: “In Argentina, Mauricio Macri’s dying government mimics its opponents: Argentina’s selective default and currency controls feel like the bad old days”
Michael Sheetz, CNBC: “A hedge fund reportedly lost $1 billion in August betting on Argentina’s economy recovering”
Jennifer Jacobs, Bloomberg: “The U.S. government approved $400 million in financing for Argentina’s road network during a visit by Ivanka Trump, the U.S. President’s daughter and adviser, to the Latin American country that’s struggling with a financial crisis on the eve of presidential elections.”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Carlos Guzmán Vedia, openDemocracy: “Devastating fires in Bolivia: a political tool: Uncontrolled fires linked to agricultural expansions are being used as a political tool during this election year in Bolivia and are causing catastrophic consequences.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Mathew Di Salvo, GlobalPost: “[Cauca mayoral candidate Karina] García is the sixth mayoral candidate to be assassinated in the year leading up to Colombia’s local and regional elections to be held on Oct. 27. Five city council candidates have also been murdered, according to Colombia’s independent electoral observers, who monitor elections.”
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s local elections: Ombudsman says violence a risk in half the country”
Updated September 8, 2019
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “Colombia’s local elections: 2nd mayor candidate assassinated in a week….Orley Garcia was shot dead by a masked man while campaigning with far-right Senator Santiago Valencia in Toledo, a town some 85 kilometers north of Medellin, according to his campaign team.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Leyland Cecco, The Guardian: “Justin Trudeau seeks to repeat 2015 surge as Canada braces for election: The prime minister is likely to call a vote for next month in which the environment, populism and Trump are all expected to feature.”
Updated September 10, 2019
David Moscrop, Washington Post: “Ahead of elections, Canadians must be vigilant about misinformation online”
Preston Lim, Lawfare: “The two parties are battling on a whole host of issues, ranging from climate change and the environment to the government’s economic policies. And for the first time in decades, foreign policy is set to play a large role in the Canadian electoral campaign.”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Chief Elections Officer and team on Friday told the seven-member Guyana Elections Commission that the earliest the machinery can be ready for general elections is next year March.”
Loop Jamaica: “The Guyana Electoral Commission (GECOM) has sought the assistance of the Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ) with the finalising of the registration process for its electors.”
Craig Guthrie, Petroleum Economist: “Guyana tipped for another find: The frontier oil province is set for yet another significant investment opportunity. But political uncertainty is just one of the many myriad challenges the country faces before first oil.”
Past Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million
These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Trevor Sutton, The Hill: “Trump pushes failed Latin America policy now reflected in Guatemala….If there are any lessons in United States policy towards Central America, it is that pursuing political objectives in the short term at the expense of bolstering democracy and human rights only leads to more trouble down the road, often at great cost to the people living in these countries.”
Sonny Figueroa, AP: “Guatemala said goodbye Tuesday to a U.N. commission that has helped investigate and prosecute hundreds of corrupt politicians, public officials and businesspeople over the last 12 years….On Monday, police arrested former first lady and two-time presidential runner-up Sandra Torres, after her own immunity from prosecution expired following her loss to Giammattei last month.”
Lucas Perelló, Global Americans: “In hindsight, it seems ironic that Torres’ arrest coincided with the end of the CICIG’s mandate. The image of the CICIG leaving the country as Torres entered prison sends a strong message to corrupt politicians and autocrats across the region: indefinitely remaining in positions of power is the only way to avoid jail in countries with weak institutions. This is a sad lesson that Guatemalans will once again have to embrace following the CICIG’s departure.”
Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Whitelaw Reid, UVA Today: “Q&A: What the Brazilian presidential election can teach us about fake news”
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald: “Trump’s ‘love affair’ with Brazil’s right-wing Bolsonaro could change Latin America’s political map.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – tentatively expected November but could be later); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2)
Guyana’s parliament building in Georgetown, the capital. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Kevin James (public domain)
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Guatemala, Guyana