Asia This Week – September 6, 2019

September 6, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.

Tuvalu Parliamentary - September 9, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 11,000

Tuvalu does not have political parties, but parties are allowed should someone wish to form one. Earlier this year, former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd proposed giving citizens of Tuvalu and other Pacific island nations Australian citizenship in exchange for control over their fishing zones and other natural resources. Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga categorically opposed the idea.

Bangladesh Parliamentary By-Election in Rangpur-3 - October 5, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: Bangladesh –  159.5 million; Rangpur-3 – 441,671 voters

Bangladesh held general elections to the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) in December 2018. The Rangpur-3 by-election is happening due to the death of Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who was Bangladesh’s military dictator during most of the 1980s. Ershad was ousted in 1990 by massive protests led by Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, bitter rivals head the country’s two dominant political parties, the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The AL and the BNP have alternated in power since the 1990s, but the AL has been in power since 2009 and is currently dominant and increasingly authoritarian. The BNP boycotted the 2014 elections, and Freedom House notes: “Hasina’s AL overwhelmingly won the December 2018 polls, taking 288 of the 300 directly elected seats. Election day and the campaign that preceded it were marked by political violence in which at least 17 people were killed, as well as legal and extralegal harassment of government opponents.”

Ershad formed Jatiya Party (JP) in 1986 and it currently holds 26 seats in parliament. Although it had previously been in talks to join the governing coalition with the AL, JP decided to be in opposition, making Ershad the official leader of the opposition. JP is strong in Rangpur, which is Bangladesh’s third-largest city, located in the north of the country.

New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million

New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.

Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning. 

India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million.

India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power.

In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million

A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.

The 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which a group of student activists briefly seized control of the Legislative Yuan to oppose greater economic integration with the mainland, continues to play a role in Taiwanese political debates. Sunflower activists inspired the founding of the New Power Party (NPP), meant to be a third option

The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

Thailand Local – March 2020 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 68.6 million

Thailand’s local elections have been delayed since the military government took over in 2014. The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule, although former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha became prime minister and the military still wields considerable power behind the scenes.

Thailand’s Election Commission has requested a budget for the local elections, but ultimately the government decides the country’s budget, which is expected to be presented in January 2020. The local elections could then take place several months after that, possibly in March 2020.

Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million

People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.

The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.

Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 7 million

Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.

Indonesia General – April 17, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million

In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.

Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.

Cambodia General – July 29, 2018 

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million

Malaysia General - May 9, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.

Upcoming Elections
Tuvalu Parliamentary – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 11,000

Tuvalu does not have political parties, but parties are allowed should someone wish to form one. Earlier this year, former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd proposed giving citizens of Tuvalu and other Pacific island nations Australian citizenship in exchange for control over their fishing zones and other natural resources. Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga categorically opposed the idea.

Jamie Tahana, RNZ: “On Monday 9 September, the 11,000 people of Tuvalu will vote to fill the 16-member parliament, which occupies a corner at the top of a three-story building in Funafuti, which also houses the entire public service.”

Updated September 9, 2019

RNZ: “Seven of Tuvalu’s sixteen members of parliament will be newcomers…..The incumbent prime minister, Enele Sopoaga, has been returned with a large majority in his home island of Nukufetau, but several of his ministers have been ousted.”

Bangladesh Parliamentary By-Election in Rangpur-3 – October 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: Bangladesh –  159.5 million; Rangpur-3 – 441,671 voters

Bangladesh held general elections to the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) in December 2018. The Rangpur-3 by-election is happening due to the death of Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who was Bangladesh’s military dictator during most of the 1980s. Ershad was ousted in 1990 by massive protests led by Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, bitter rivals head the country’s two dominant political parties, the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The AL and the BNP have alternated in power since the 1990s, but the AL has been in power since 2009 and is currently dominant and increasingly authoritarian. The BNP boycotted the 2014 elections, and Freedom House notes: “Hasina’s AL overwhelmingly won the December 2018 polls, taking 288 of the 300 directly elected seats. Election day and the campaign that preceded it were marked by political violence in which at least 17 people were killed, as well as legal and extralegal harassment of government opponents.”

Ershad formed Jatiya Party (JP) in 1986 and it currently holds 26 seats in parliament. Although it had previously been in talks to join the governing coalition with the AL, JP decided to be in opposition, making Ershad the official leader of the opposition. JP is strong in Rangpur, which is Bangladesh’s third-largest city, located in the north of the country.

Dhaka Tribune: “On Sept 1, the Election Commission (EC) announced the schedule for the Rangpur by-polls. Voting of the by-election will be held on October 5, using the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) across the constituency.”

Dhaka Tribune: “The Rangpur 3 constituency fell vacant after the death of Leader of the Opposition and Jatiya Party Chairman Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who passed away at Combined Military Hospital (CMH) in Dhaka on July 14 while undergoing treatment.”

New Zealand Local – October 12, 2019 and Parliamentary – by November 21, 2020 (likely to be earlier)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 4.5 million

New Zealand’s two main parties are the center-left Labour Party and center-right National Party. National won the most votes and seats in the 2017 elections, but not enough to form a government. Labour formed a coalition with New Zealand First, a populist party that has worked with both Labour and National in the past, backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party (Labour and New Zealand First combined have the same number of seats as National – 55). Labour leader Jacinda Ardern – a former DJ who is on the left wing of the party – became Prime Minister and is currently the world’s youngest female government.

Local elections in New Zealand have had low turnout for decades, but the local polls could serve as an interesting barometer ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls – which are due by November 2020 but could be called earlier – for which parties have already started campaigning. 

Hayden Donnell, The Spinoff (New Zealand): “Revealed: The famous and interesting candidates standing in our local elections: You may think you’re not interested in the local elections. But did you know the candidate pool is a smorgasbord of celebs, oddballs, and otherwise interesting people?”

India, Haryana State and Maharashtra State Assemblies – October 2019 or November 2019 and Jharkhand State Assembly – November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: India – 1.3 billion; Maharashtra -112 million; Haryana – 25 million; Jharkhand – 32 million.

India has 29 states and seven union territories. Indian states are big – Maharashtra, whose capital is Mumbai, has 112 million people, Haryana 25 million, and Jharkhand 32 million. Coalitions headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently control all three state legislatures. The BJP won a massive victory in elections to the Lok Sabha, India’s national parliament, earlier this year, giving it a second term in power as the majority party able to govern without coalition partners, in an increasingly polarized political climate. The main opposition social democratic Congress Party – India’s oldest party – did well in a series of state elections late last year but is reeling from the whiplash of defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The state elections are happening in the context of a renewed push from Modi to institute “one nation, one election” – a proposal to hold state elections at the same time as elections to the Lok Sabha. Critics say the plan is a ploy to centralize power.

In a surprise geopolitical development, on August 5, 2019, the Modi government made a unilateral decision to strip the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir of its autonomy. The region, which is majority Muslim, is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has sparked three wars. For seventy years, the Indian-controlled part – established as the state of Jammu and Kashmir – enjoyed a high degree of autonomy, but Modi announced that the state would be downgraded into two union territories, effectively centralizing control. The area remains on virtual lockdown. Some have been critical of the decision, which Modi defends.

Megha Mandavia, Economic Times: “Ahead of state polls, Election Commission of India wants social media to follow the code: The poll panel reminds social media firms such as Facebook, WhatsApp of voluntary code of ethics adopted during LS [parliamentary] elections.”

Sadanand Dhume, The Atlantic: “The Dueling Narratives of India’s Kashmir Crackdown: New Delhi’s actions have been welcomed domestically, but Narendra Modi’s government will have a hard time selling its message abroad.”

Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hintson, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “The Dawn of India’s Fourth Party System: With the BJP’s return to power following May 2019 general election, India appears to have ushered in a new dominant party system—one premised on a unique set of political principles, showing a clear break with what came before.”

Hong Kong District Councils – November 24, 2019 and Legislative Council – September 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Special Administrative Region within China
Population: 7.2 million

A series of massive protests – with as many as 2 million people in the streets on at least one occasion – has been taking place in Hong Kong all summer. The proximate cause was a controversial extradition bill, but even though the bill has been put on hold, protesters persist, calling for more democracy and free elections.

Hong Kong’s politicians fall into two broad camps: pro-democracy and pro-Beijing (sometimes called pro-establishment). Within these camps, parties and independent candidates have diverse ideologies, ranging from free market to social democracy. The District Councils oversee local public works and community activities, and the Legislative Council (Legco) is Hong Kong’s legislature. Following the 2015 District Council elections, the pro-Beijing camp controls all 18 councils, but the pro-democracy and localist camps currently hold 124 out of 458 seats. In the Legco, the pro-Beijing camp holds 43 seats out of 70, while the pro-democracy camp holds 24. The protest movement could boost the pro-democracy camp.

Lee Hsin-Yin, CNA: “The ongoing protests against the Hong Kong government will not end until Hong Kongers have democracy, freedom and the right to elect their leaders, Hong Kong student activist and secretary-general of pro-democracy party Demosistō Joshua Wong (黃之鋒) said Wednesday.”

Gary Cheung, South China Morning Post: “Hong Kong’s pro-government lawmakers brace for impact in district council elections following Carrie Lam’s withdrawal of extradition bill”

Wong Lok-to, Radio Free Asia: “Hong Kong Activist Agnes Chow Wins Appeal Overturning Election Ban: Former 2014 student protest leader Agnes Chow, now a member of the political party Demosisto, was disqualified from running in a LegCo by-election in March 2018 because her political views were judged to be pro-independence.”

Sri Lanka Presidential – December 7, 2019 and Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 22.6 million

Sri Lanka is still feeling the aftershocks of a series of terrorist attacks over Easter 2019 and a 2018 political crisis in which President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dissolve parliament and remove Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office and replace him with former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015. Ultimately, Wickremesinghe was reinstated, but the crisis has deep roots and tensions remain high in Sri Lankan politics.

The two major parties are Sirisena’s center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Wickremesinghe’s center-right United National Party. Rajapaksa left the SLPF in 2018 and now leads the populist Sri Lanka People’s Front/Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In the last presidential elections, Rajapaksa surprisingly lost to Sirisena, who embarked on a reform program to reverse many of the autocratic powers Rajapaksa had built up. Sirisena is eligible to run for a second term and could run again. His potential challengers include Wickremesinghe and one of Rajapaksa’s siblings (Rajapaksa is not eligible to run for president again due to term limits adopted during Sirisena’s presidency). Rajapaksa’s SLPP did well in local elections last year. Sri Lanka’s democracy sits on the precipice, and the upcoming elections could well determine whether it strengthens or deteriorates.

News First (Sri Lanka): “Chairman of National Elections Commission Mahinda Deshapriya commented on the Presidential Election today (September 3), at Kalutara. He stated that the Presidential Election would take place between November 15th and December 7th.”

The Economist: “An election campaign in Sri Lanka stirs old ghosts: The Rajapaksa family wants another turn in charge.”

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative – January 11, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 23.5 million

Taiwan has a robust democracy. The two main parties are President Tsai Ing-Wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, founded by Sun Yat-Sen, favors closer ties to the mainland, which it ruled from 1925 to 1948. The DPP, established in 1986 during Taiwan’s transition to democracy, supports Taiwan’s independence. Relations with China are a dominant theme in Taiwan’s political debate. Tsai won the DPP presidential primary. Beijing’s choice, Han Kuo-yu, the populist firebrand mayor of Kaohsiung, a major port city in the south, won the KMT primary. His opponent, Foxconn founder Terry Guo, Taiwan’s richest man, is mulling an independent bid in the general election.

The 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which a group of student activists briefly seized control of the Legislative Yuan to oppose greater economic integration with the mainland, continues to play a role in Taiwanese political debates. Sunflower activists inspired the founding of the New Power Party (NPP), meant to be a third option

The DPP currently controls the Legislative Yuan. Last year’s local elections swept the KMT back into many local offices that they had lost during the 2014 local elections – with some interference from China. China is expected to attempt to influence the upcoming elections as well.

Taiwan News: “The office of Foxconn founder Terry Gou issued a statement on Sept. 5 saying that the tycoon will make clear his intentions about whether launch a 2020 presidential campaign on Sept. 17 and that the decision will be made in the interest of Taiwan.”

Stewart Baker, Lawfare: “The Cyberlaw Podcast: Alex Stamos on Electoral Interference in Taiwan”

Shelley Rigger, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Why Taiwan is watching Hong Kong very closely: How ‘one country, two systems’ plays out in Hong Kong could factor into Taiwan’s 2020 elections.”

Thailand Local – March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 68.6 million

Thailand’s local elections have been delayed since the military government took over in 2014. The March 24, 2019 parliamentary election nominally returned Thailand to civilian rule, although former junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha became prime minister and the military still wields considerable power behind the scenes.

Thailand’s Election Commission has requested a budget for the local elections, but ultimately the government decides the country’s budget, which is expected to be presented in January 2020. The local elections could then take place several months after that, possibly in March 2020.

Panu Wongcha-um, Panarat Thepgumpanat and Matthew Tostevin, Reuters: “ANALYSIS-Hard right: Political divide deepens in Thailand: A new term is gaining ground in Thailand’s political vocabulary: ‘Chung-Chart,’ which translates roughly as ‘nation-hater.’ The term is used by ardent supporters of the monarchy and military to label anyone they see as a threat in a kingdom where polarisation between the ruling establishment and Thais seeking change has become even sharper after the end of junta rule this year.”

The Economist: “Relations between Thailand’s army and king are becoming one-sided: The king has created his own crack unit and is expelling others from Bangkok.”

Randy Thanthong-Knight, Bloomberg: “Thai Lawmakers to Debate Prime Minister’s Swearing-In Controversy”

Updated September 9, 2019

Bangkok Post: “Former Bangkok governor Apirak Kosayodhin, and Muang Thai Insurance’s chief executive and president Nualphan Lamsam have ‘good potential’ to represent the Democrat Party in the race for Bangkok’s governorship, said the party’s deputy leader Ong-art Klampaibul on Sunday. According to Interior Minister Gen Anupong Paojinda, local elections, including the election of the new Bangkok governor, are likely to be held early next year.”

Singapore General – April 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 6 million

People’s Action Party (PAP), co-founded by Lee Kuan Yew Singapore’s first prime minister, has been in power since 1959. While elections aren’t rigged in the classic sense (no stuffed ballot boxes), they take place in a context that effectively prevents the opposition from actually taking power, and the opposition has not historically run to actually win – their pitch to voters has been promises to provide a check on the PAP.

The government uses a variety of tactics – including libel lawsuits, influence over the media, and laws that restrict political speech – to hamstring the opposition, while arguing that Singaporeans support PAP because it has governed competently. The 2015 elections gave PAP 83 out of the 89 elected seats in parliament. The next elections are due in 2021, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yew’s son) has hinted that he would call early elections.

Rachel Genevieve Chia, Business Insider Singapore: “Singapore’s electoral boundaries committee formed ahead of next general election….This is typically the first step leading to a general election – which for Singapore must occur by April 2021.”

Fathin Ungku and Aradhana Aravindan, Reuters: “Singapore is expected to roll out a generous budget ahead of an election as the ruling party seeks to appease voters who are feeling the pinch from a sharp economic downturn, analysts say.”

Past Elections
Papua New Guinea Local – July 20-25, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Population: 7 million

Papua New Guinea’s politics are chaotic, and no single party has ever commanded a majority in parliament. Coalitions shift frequently. James Marape became prime minister in May 2018 when former prime minister Peter O’Neill lost a no-confidence vote after being in power for eight years. It is unclear whether Marape will effectively address Papua New Guinea’s continuing problems of corruption and mismanagement of the economy. For the local elections, voters will elect representatives to 29 urban and 302 rural local level government assemblies.

Reuters: “Papua New Guinea’s Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge to the election of Prime Minister James Marape on Sept. 20, a lawyer for opposition leader Patrick Pruaitch, who took the issue to court, said on Friday. The case adds to political turmoil that has delayed progress on two important resources projects in PNG this year, a $13 billion plan to double its gas exports, led by Exxon Mobil Corp and Total SA, and plans to build a major new gold mine, Wafi-Golpu, led by Newcrest Mining.”

Stratfor: “Papua New Guinea’s new prime minister, James Marape, is touting a more nationalist push on resources for his energy- and mineral-rich country and hinting at a rebalance in great power relations, vexing both foreign companies and regional heavyweight Australia.”

Indonesia General – April 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 262.8 million

In Indonesia’s April 2019 election – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, defeated challenged Prabowo Subianto for the presidency in an election deemed free and fair by the international community. However, Prabowo didn’t accept the results, and in addition to challenging them in court, he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Rioting ensued. Prabowo ultimately accepted the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.

Indonesia will hold regional elections in September 2020, and the next presidential election is due in 2024.

Johannes Nugroho, South China Morning Post: “As Indonesia mulls a move away from direct presidential elections, is dynastic politics here to stay? President Joko Widodo is part of a new crop of Indonesian politicians elected without a famous family name or political links. But the country’s political elite, including former president Megawati, are proposing changes to the way the president is elected.”

Cambodia General – July 29, 2018 
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 16.4 million

Radio Free Asia: “Cambodian authorities arrested a former opposition party activist on Thursday, taking him into custody in northwestern Cambodia’s Banteay Meanchey province where he had gone to work as a taxi driver, sources told RFA’s Khmer Service as the government of Hun Sen continued legal action against the party it banned nearly two years ago.”

David Hutt, The Diplomat: “What’s Next for Kem Sokha and Cambodia’s Opposition? The anniversary of the Cambodian opposition leader’s detention this week raises questions about his future.”

Malaysia General – May 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 31.8 million

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the Barisan Nasional coalition and its primary member, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which had been in power since Malaysia’s 1957 independence. In 1976, the government abolished local elections and instituted the practice of appointing the members of the country’s 146 local councils. Malaysia is currently debating whether to hold local elections.

Milad Hassandarvish, Malay Mail: “While the general election last year brought about a change in government that was peaceful, this certainly was not the case in the years leading up to it. And M for Malaysia, a documentary feature film, strives to pack in 30 years of the country’s history into a neat package of 93 minutes.”


A campaign poster for Miriam Lau from the pro-Beijing Liberal Party during Hong Kong’s 2012 legislative elections. Lau lost her seat. Pro-Beijing politicians could take a political hit in Hong Kong’s upcoming local elections and next year’s legislative elections following a summer of protest.
Photo credit: Wikimedia/Clément Bucco-Lechat (CC BY-SA 3.0)

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The Year Ahead: Asia
Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; IndiaMaharashtra and Haryana states (October); Tuvalu parliamentary (September 9); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November 24); Marshall Islands legislative (November); India Jharkhand State (November); Kiribati legislative (December); Sri Lanka presidential (December 7); Nepal by-elections (December 30); Taiwan presidential and legislative (January 11); Kiribati presidential (March); Maldives local (April); South Korea parliamentary (April 15); Niue parliamentary (May); Philippines village and youth council (May 11); Mongolia parliamentary (June)

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