Upcoming Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures seek to run for local office, but authorities are blocking their access to the ballot. In response, citizens are holding a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s.

Will Englund, Washington Post: “In Russia’s local elections, the vote totals are not what really count”

Amy Mackinnon and Reid Standish, Foreign Policy: “Russians Begin to Consider Life Without Putin: After a summer of discontent, a series of elections in Russia opens up a new chapter in its political history.”

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Belsat: “Belarus and Russia to launch common markets in 2021: On September 5, Minister of Economy of Belarus Dzmitry Krutoy spoke about the action plan calendar to deepen integration with Russia, BelTA reports.”

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Vestnik Kavkaza: “Georgia’s complete transition to proportional representation with no threshold will give a chance to the populist political groups to enter parliament much more easily. This pushes those marginal groups to employ more radical agendas to gain popularity and recruit electoral support.”

Erica Marat, openDemocracy: “Awakening a new generation of activists in Eurasia: An emerging young, urban population has begun to challenge the lasting legacies of the Soviet era.”

Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.8 million

Kyrgyzstan began a halting transition to democracy following the Tulip Revolution of 2005, and following another revolution in 2010, the country switched to a parliamentary system and presidents were restricted to one term in office, in an effort to curtail presidential power and authoritarian backsliding. The current president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, was elected in 2017, leading to Kyrgyzstan’s first peaceful transfer of power between two elected presidents. Jeenbekov had been backed by his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev, but relations between the two have since soured. Atambayev staged a series of protests. The political climate remains tense ahead of next year’s parliamentary polls.

George Voloshin, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Former Kyrgyz President’s Arrest: A Litmus Test for Succession Politics”

Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Top cop goes from hero to zero amid suspicions of set-up: The officer who negotiated the end to a bloody standoff with Kyrgyzstan’s former president is now being held for abuse of office. The flimsy evidence suggests the government needed a fall guy.”

Hannah S. Chapman and Theodore P. Gerber, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Russian propaganda isn’t as effective as you may think: Our research shows it only influences neighboring countries’ citizens on subjects they know little about.”

Past Elections
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.

Armen Grigoryan, openDemocracy: “‘Armenia first’: behind the rise of Armenia’s alt-right scene” Armenia’s 2018 revolution may have pushed a kleptocratic regime out of power, but today the country’s conservative agenda is radicalising under new conditions.”

Vestnik Kavkaza: “Surge of right-wing populism reaches Armenia and Georgia”

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million

Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.

RFE/RL: “Kazakh President Pledges More Democratic Freedoms In First State-Of-The-Nation Address”

Updated September 6, 2019

Reuters: “Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Friday rejected calls for a switch to a parliamentary republic made by opposition activists at recent public protests, but promised to give the Central Asian nation’s parliament a greater role.”

The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)

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