Europe This Week – September 4, 2019

September 4, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Norway Local – September 9, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.4 million

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental and transportation issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million

The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

France Municipal - March 15-22, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself).

Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million

Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million

Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition, and there have been constant rumors that the coalition would collapse and spark snap elections.

Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Denmark Parliamentary - June 5, 2019 and Faroe Islands Parliamentary - August 31, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: Denmark – 5.8 million; Faroe Islands – 51,000

The Faroe Islands are a self-governing overseas territory of Denmark. The Danish government controls foreign affairs, some of the justice system, and defense, while Faroese have home rule on domestic issues. The islands are not part of the European Union. Faroese have their own language, derived from Old Norse and distinct from Danish. Some Faroese want independence.

Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Saxony – 4.1 million; Brandenburg – 2.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.

AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states.

Albania Local - June 30, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.1 million

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.

Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 11.6 million

Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.8 million

Upcoming Elections
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.4 million

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental and transportation issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

Richard Milne, Financial Times: “The road toll rises have become an emotive topic in Norway, polarising debate ahead of local elections that are being seen as a referendum on environmental policies. In Monday’s vote, the Greens and a new anti-tolls party are forecast to make gains at the expense of the populist Progress party — which has haemorrhaged support after softening its stance on tolls during its time in government — and other mainstream parties.”

Nina Berglund, NewsInEnglish (Norway): “With less than a week to go before important local elections are held all over Norway, Prime Minister Erna Solberg doesn’t only need to campaign against all of the country’s left-center opposition parties. She’s also had to spend much of this week dealing with more highly public quarreling within her conservative coalition, and revealing some climate-unfriendly policies in the process.

Gwladys Fouche, Reuters: “Politics as ‘marriage therapy’? Norway TV debates strike harmonious chord….As politicians in the United States, Britain and many other countries adopt increasingly confrontational poses and appear to shun compromise, Norway is trialing new ways to debate political issues ahead of its local elections on Sept. 9.”

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Perparim Isufi, Balkan Insight: “How Political Instability Has Felled Kosovo’s Governments: Kosovo will hold another general election next month after the current parliament was dissolved prematurely – the fourth in a row to fail to complete its four-year term.”

Eraldin Fazliu and Jack Robinson, Prishtina Insight: “Running together or alone? The deadline for pre-electoral coalitions has passed, setting the parameters for October’s parliamentary elections: five candidates for prime minister, two coalitions and Kosovo’s three largest political parties running without a partner.”

RFE/RL: “New U.S. Balkan Envoy Makes Mending Serbia-Kosovo Relations A Priority”

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Updated September 7, 2019

Marcin Goclowski and Pawel Florkiewicz: Reuters: “Polish PiS promises voters even more cash ahead of October: Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party will offer pensioners regular annual cash bonuses and will almost double the minimum wage for workers, its leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said ahead of parliamentary elections next month.”

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Lili Bayer, Politico: “The battle for Budapest: Opposition joins forces to try and loosen Viktor Orbán’s grip on power.”

Péter Cseresnyés, Hungary Today: “As a symbolic gesture, Gergely Karácsony and the opposition parties opened their municipal election campaign at Szabadság tér (Liberty Square) on Saturday. The official campaign song of the joint opposition Budapest mayoral candidate, called the Változás dala (Song of Change), was also introduced there.”

Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “Erdogan Lost Istanbul. Is Orban About to Lose Budapest? Strongmen can struggle to maintain a hold over their nations’ major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdogan couldn’t stop an opposition candidate becoming Istanbul’s mayor. Protesters are giving Vladimir Putin a hard time in Moscow. A similar battle could be playing out in Hungary.”

Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)

Population: 8.3 million

The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.

The Local (Switzerland): “Elections 2019: A snapshot of Switzerland’s major political parties”

Urs Geiser, SwissInfo: “Green parties consolidate gains in latest Swiss election poll”

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

Sofia Globe: “Registration of parties and coalitions for Bulgaria’s 2019 local elections begins”

Sofia Globe: “Sofia mayor Yordanka Fandukova confirmed on September 2 that she would seek a fourth term in office in Bulgaria’s autumn 2019 local elections. Fandukova, a deputy leader of Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB party, has been mayor of Sofia since November 2009.”

Novinite: “Maya Manolova [previously an MP from the Bulgarian Socialist Party] resigns as an Ombudsman to run for mayor of Sofia….Maya Manolova is also expected to support independent candidates and municipal councillors across the country for the local fall vote.”

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Andrea Dudik and Andra Timu, Bloomberg: “Here’s Why Romanian Politics Is Blowing Up Yet Again”

RFE/RL: “The United States has imposed a travel ban on Liviu Dragnea, the jailed former leader of Romania’s ruling Social Democrats, and his immediate family members, saying they have been involved in ‘significant corruption.’”

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself).

Elizabeth Pineau and Michel Rose, Reuters: “Emmanuel Macron’s bid to control Paris City Hall plunged into uncertainty on Wednesday after ruling party lawmaker Cedric Villani said he would challenge the president’s own candidate – a rebellious act akin to his own rise to power in 2017.”

Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million

Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.

Nina Franelova, Balkan Insight: “The For a Decent Slovakia movement mobilised tens of thousands after the murder of a journalist shocked the nation. What will it do ahead of a general election?”

AFP: “Slovak parliament expels MP for hate speech….A member of the anti-migrant and anti-Roma LSNS party, Mazurek is also banned from running for office in March 2020 parliamentary elections….The LSNS is currently polling at 11.4 percent support and is expected to win more seats in the upcoming general election.”

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million

Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition, and there have been constant rumors that the coalition would collapse and spark snap elections.

Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”

Elisabetta Povoledo, New York Times: “With New Cabinet, Italy’s Head-Spinning Political Turmoil Ends, for Now”

Giovanna De Maio, Brookings Institution: “Matteo Salvini is out but not down.”

Gavin Jones and Giselda Vagnoni, Reuters: “How Italy’s ‘Captain’ Salvini steered his ship onto the rocks”

Updated September 6, 2019

France24/AP: “Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Thursday [September 5] swears in a new coalition government led by PM Giuseppe Conte that teams up the populist 5-Star Movement and centre-left Democrats in an unusual alliance to banish the far-right League party from power.”

Euractiv: “Italy’s Five Star Movement has been in informal talks with three political groups in the European Parliament, EURACTIV has learnt. The three are: Renew Europe (formerly the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for EuropeALDE), the Greens, as well as the Confederal Group of the European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL).”

Daniel R. DePetris, The Spectator: “Will Italy’s new coalition last? Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Bloomberg: “Johnson gets boxed in over Brexit with election only way out: Parliament rejects Johnson’s call for snap general election.”

Denis Staunton, Irish Times: Johnson still has a way of getting October 15th election. His first prime minister’s questions showed how he plans to frame the electorate’s choice.”

Helen Lewis, The Atlantic: “Why a ‘Brexit Election’ Will Make Things Worse: A national vote in the run-up to Britain’s deadline to withdraw from the European Union will be dangerous….This is the oddness of British politics right now. The country is headed for an election that will be all about Brexit—and very little about what might come next.”

Douglas Fraser, BBC: “Election footing: no, not that one: Holyrood is now 18 months from its next election. Nicola Sturgeon’s Programme for Government on Tuesday, laid some of the groundwork for it. It won’t be all about independence. The economy, and in particular the green part of it, is playing a prominent role.”

Past Elections
Denmark Parliamentary – June 5, 2019 and Faroe Islands Parliamentary – August 31, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: Denmark – 5.8 million; Faroe Islands – 51,000

The Faroe Islands are a self-governing overseas territory of Denmark. The Danish government controls foreign affairs, some of the justice system, and defense, while Faroese have home rule on domestic issues. The islands are not part of the European Union. Faroese have their own language, derived from Old Norse and distinct from Danish. Some Faroese want independence.

Umut Özkırımlı, The Guardian: Don’t learn the wrong lessons from Denmark on nationalism: The Danish centre-left aped the far right to win an election. There’s a better way to deal with people’s fears

 

AP: “Initial results show that the opposition People’s Party has won a general election in the Faeroe Islands as the ruling Social Democratic Party lost its position as the biggest party in the parliament.”

Jens Hákun Leo, Local (Faroe Islands): “Conservatives open post-election coalition negotiations, same-sex marriage could be repealed”

Updated September 6, 2019

Lise Lyck, London School of Economics’ EUROPP: “While Greenland has been making headlines, however, another territory tied to Denmark – the Faroe Islands – recently held a general election. But why should we be interested in this collection of islands? And why now?”

Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Saxony – 4.1 million; Brandenburg – 2.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.

AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states.

Melissa Eddy and Katrin Bennhold, New York Times: “A far-right party made significant gains Sunday in two closely watched state elections, snapping at the heels of parties in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition and highlighting a growing political divide between the country’s East and West, initial returns showed.”

DW: “How the world press viewed the far-right surge in eastern German elections: The success of the AfD was a ‘double slap in the face’ to Angela Merkel, but not the ‘earthquake everyone feared.’ DW rounds up the international reactions to the state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg.”

Emily Schulteis, The Atlantic: “The Small-Town Disputes That Fuel Germany’s Far Right. A municipal disagreement illustrates Germany’s polarized debate about open societies, tolerance, and integration.”

Tarik Abou-Chadi, Washington Post: “Why Germany — and Europe — can’t afford to accommodate the radical right”

Madeline Chambers, Reuters: “German Social Democrats start ‘speed-dating’ for aspiring leaders: No fewer than 17 leadership candidates for Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) faced hustings on Wednesday with members deciding who they want to drag the party out of the doldrums and decide whether to quit government.”

Constanze Stelzenmüller, Washington Post: “Sunday’s elections were a reprieve. But the next test is nearing fast: elections in Thuringia on Oct. 27. There, the AfD’s local frontman is Björn Höcke, one of the leaders of its radical wing.”

Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.1 million

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.

Tirana Times: “In an interview for the Italian newspaper Il Giornale, Albanian President Ilir Meta said once more that June 30 local elections were anti-constitutional and illegal, and that only the currently dysfunctional Constitutional Court could cancel out his decree to postpone them for October 13.”

Exit (Albania): “Socialist Party Set to Repeat Shkodra Elections without a Presidential Decree”

Al Jazeera: “Targeted: The journalists reporting politics and crime in Albania. In Albania, reporting on corruption and the links between politics and organised crime can have serious consequences.”

Updated September 5, 2019

OSCE releases final report on Albania’s June 30, 2019 local elections. It echoed the preliminary report, reiterating: “The 30 June local elections were held with little regard for the interests of the electorate. The opposition decided not to participate, and the government determined to hold the elections without it. In the climate of a political standoff and polarisation, voters did not have a meaningful choice between political options. In 31 of the 61 municipalities mayoral candidates ran unopposed. There were credible allegations of citizens being pressured by both sides.”

Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 11.6 million

The Brussels Times: “‘A Belgian majority government is possible before November’”

The Brussels Times: “Five questions to philosopher Philippe Van Parijs on Belgium’s post-electoral deadlock”

Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Soledad Gallego-Díaz and Carlos E. Cué, El País: “Acting Spanish PM: ‘No coalition, no elections. There is a third way’: Speaking to EL PAÍS, Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party says that he still believes he can persuade left-wing Podemos to support him in the formation of a government.”

José Marcos and Ana Marcos, El País: “As deadline for new election looms, Spain’s PM reaches out to Podemos. Pedro Sánchez today launched 370 policy points, many aimed at persuading the anti-austerity group to vote in favor of a minority Socialist Party administration.”

Anna Valiente Casanova, Euronews: “Podemos insist on formal coalition as price for saving Sánchez: Spain’s acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has once again rejected the far-left Unidas Podemos’ demand for a formal coalition government.”

Charles Penty, Bloomberg: “How Catalonia Remains a Thorn in Spanish Politics”

Shoshana Fine and José Ignacio Torreblanca, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Border games: Has Spain found an answer to the populist challenge on migration?”

Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.8 million

Mladen Lakic, Balkan Insight: “The deadline set by the main parties in Bosnia to form a state-level government expired on Thursday, with no solution in sight over the vexed issue of NATO – leaving the country in continued political deadlock.”

The Year Ahead: Europe
Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Kosovo snap parliamentary (October 6); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Croatia presidential (December); France municipal (March 15-11); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April); Poland presidential (May); Iceland presidential (June)

 


An automatic road toll station in Norway. The debate over road tolls is playing a major role in Monday’s local elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Peter Fiskerstrand (public domain)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

Comments

Share This