Middle East This Week – September 3, 2019

September 3, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.

Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.

The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest. Twenty-six candidates are running for president and the election looks to be highly competitive, and the results far from certainLeading candidates include Ennadha’s Abdelfattah Mourou, who comes from the party’s moderate wing; Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a secularist who split off from Nidaa Tounes; media mogul Nabil Karoui, another secularist also split off from Nidaa Tounes; and technocrat Mehdi Jomaa, a former industry minister and acting prime minister.

Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) centrist political alliance, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government.

The main contenders in the upcoming election are Likud, Blue and White, and a number of smaller parties, some of which hope to be kingmakers following the election.

Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.

Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.

Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.

Libya Ongoing Crisis

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: In Transition
Population: 6.8 million

Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Turkey Local – March 31, 2019 (Istanbul mayoral re-run June 23, 2019)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 81.3 million

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.

Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections. The two biggest parties competing would likely be the conservative and increasingly populist and authoritarian AKP,  and center-left secularist CHP, which was founded by Atatürk himself. Other contenders will include the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), currently AKP’s junior coalition partner; and center-right İyi (Good) Party, which favors a return to a parliamentary system and courts conservative voters who oppose Erdogan.

In August 2019, the Turkish government removed three mayors from Kurdish-majority provinces. The mayors had won in landslides in the March local elections, and their removal – on accusations of terrorism – sparked fury among the opposition and among certain groups within AKP. Notably, Ahmet Davutoğlu, a former prime minister, and Abdullah Gül, a former president – both of AKP – criticized the move.

Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.5 million

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Under Tunisia’s semi-presidential system, the president has broad authority over foreign and defense policy while the prime minister oversees domestic policy.

The upcoming elections look to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and the Islamist Ennadha Party (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament), with a number of independent candidates adding unpredictability to the contest. Twenty-six candidates are running for president and the election looks to be highly competitive, and the results far from certainLeading candidates include Ennadha’s Abdelfattah Mourou, who comes from the party’s moderate wing; Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a secularist who split off from Nidaa Tounes; media mogul Nabil Karoui, another secularist also split off from Nidaa Tounes; and technocrat Mehdi Jomaa, a former industry minister and acting prime minister.

Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.

President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.

Zeenat Hansrod, RFI: “In Tunisia, 26 candidates are vying to replace late president Beji Caid Essebsi at polls due in two weeks. The elections are markedly different from those of 2014 with fragmented political blocs and uncertainty over the final outcome.”

Bouazza Ben Bouazza, AP: “Women seeking Tunisian presidency say it’s time for change”

Updated September 5, 2019

Haykel Ben Mahfoudh, Atlantic Council’s MENASource: “Is the Early Presidential Election a Political Turning Point for Tunisia?”

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 8.4 million

Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz and his newly-formed Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) centrist political alliance, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government.

The main contenders in the upcoming election are Likud, Blue and White, and a number of smaller parties, some of which hope to be kingmakers following the election.

Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.

Haaretz: “Likud and Kahol Lavan Neck and Neck, Lieberman Remains Kingmaker, Election Polls Show: Channel 13 poll shows Gantz’s Kahol Lavan pulling ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud in a one-seat lead, but no major party projected to secure majority coalition.”

Michael Oren, The Atlantic: “Israel’s Prince of Paradoxes: If Avigdor Lieberman ascends to power, it could change everything—but it’s unclear how.”

Jonathan Broder, Newsweek: “Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is Playing a Dangerous Game With Iranian Allies. What if He Loses?”

Dov Lipman, Jewish News Syndicate: “How Israeli elections work … if they work: Quite remarkably, Israel has been through 20 smooth transitions of power. And despite the dispersal of the Knesset following Benjamin Netanyahu’s inability to form a majority coalition in April, the mandate to govern has been returned to where it belongs in a democracy: the voters.”

Updated September 4, 2019

Dov Zakheim, The Hill: “A US-Iran deal may play a role in Israel’s election and Netanyahu’s future”

Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Population: 35 million

Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.

Shadi Khan Saif, Andalou Agency: “Presidential polls in Afghanistan enter critical stage: With under 30 days remaining, sensitive election materials begin transfer from capital to provinces under tight security.”

Sahar Halaimzai and Horia Mosadiqi, Al Jazeera: “The Afghan ‘peace’ deal will not bring peace to the Afghan people: While rushing to strike an agreement with the Taliban ahead of the 2020 election, Washington is ignoring Afghan demands.”

Cara Anna and Tameem Akhgar, AP: “War-weary Afghans have little voice in their country’s fate”

Zach Bikus, Gallup: “Inside Afghanistan: Stability in Institutions Remains Elusive”

Khaama Press: “Ex-Chairmen and commissioners of Afghan election commissions given jail sentences”

Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free 
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 41.7 million

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.

Reuters: “Algeria’s army chief on Monday called for elections later this year to choose a new president after mass protests forced the resignation in April of veteran leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika, state media reported.”

Morocco World News: “Algeria to Announce Presidential Election Date September 15”

Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: In Transition
Population: 6.8 million

Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Abdulkader Assad, Libya Observer: “The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the attack on Tripoli by Khalifa Haftar’s forces led to the halt of the UN-led political process in Libya. Guterres added in a report on Thursday that Haftar had conditioned control of his forces on Tripoli before entering in any negotiations or formation of a national unity government.”

Past Elections
Turkey Local – March 31, 2019 (Istanbul mayoral re-run June 23, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 81.3 million

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.

Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections. The two biggest parties competing would likely be the conservative and increasingly populist and authoritarian AKP,  and center-left secularist CHP, which was founded by Atatürk himself. Other contenders will include the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), currently AKP’s junior coalition partner; and center-right İyi (Good) Party, which favors a return to a parliamentary system and courts conservative voters who oppose Erdogan.

In August 2019, the Turkish government removed three mayors from Kurdish-majority provinces. The mayors had won in landslides in the March local elections, and their removal – on accusations of terrorism – sparked fury among the opposition and among certain groups within AKP. Notably, Ahmet Davutoğlu, a former prime minister, and Abdullah Gül, a former president – both of AKP – criticized the move.

Reuters: “Turkey’s interior minister on Tuesday threatened ‘to devastate’ the mayor of Istanbul over his support for three Kurdish mayors who were replaced by state officials over alleged terror links less than five months after the trio were elected. Last month, Turkey replaced pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) mayors in Diyarbakir, Van and Mardin with state officials, and detained more than 400 people over suspected militant links, in a move sharply criticized by the opposition.”

DW: “Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken further steps to ensure continued unchallenged leadership of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) following a unanimous agreement by party members to begin expulsion proceedings for one of its key members, former prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu.”

Ahval: “Hundreds of thousands resign from Turkey’s ruling AKP in months – former party official”

Updated September 5, 2019

Sinan Ciddi, Stratfor: “Erdogan’s and the Turkish Opposition’s Kurdish Gambits”

The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential and parliamentary (September 15 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)

Businesswoman and former tourism minister Selma Elloumi Rekik is one of two female candidates in Tunisia’s upcoming presidential election. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Seif1919 (CC BY-SA 4.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

Comments

Share This