Europe This Week – September 11, 2019

September 11, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections - November 2019 (expected)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

Romania Presidential - November 10, 2019 and Local - Expected June 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Romania Insider: “The leaders of Romanian opposition parties Save Romania Union (USR) and PLUS, Dan Barna and Dacian Ciolos, sent a proposal to president Klaus Iohannis and the other opposition parties to make a pact for organizing early parliamentary elections next year, at the same time with the elections for the local administration.”

Stratfor: “Elections in Poland and Romania, and What Will Follow for the EU”

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). The current mayor of Paris is Anne Hidalgo from the Socialist Party, who is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million

Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition, and there have been constant rumors that the coalition would collapse and spark snap elections.

Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Norway Local – September 9, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.4 million

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental and transportation issues played a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters chose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Saxony – 4.1 million; Brandenburg – 2.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.

AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states.

Albania Local – June 30, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.1 million

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.

Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.8 million

Upcoming Elections
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.

Paul Schmidt, London School of Economics’s EUROPP: “What to expect from Austria’s election…. Polls currently show a comfortable lead for the ÖVP, with the SPÖ and their still rather new leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner modestly gaining ground. Surprisingly, or not, the FPÖ does not seem to have lost many of its followers over the latest scandal – they have claimed their leaders were set up by their political opponents and have not done anything wrong.”

Derek Scally, The Irish Times: “Three weeks before a snap election, Austria’s conservative People’s Party has said it has discovered and closed down a hacking operation on the computer network of its Viennese party headquarters. The news came days after leaks suggested the party breached a campaign funding ceiling in its efforts to re-elect its leader, Sebastian Kurz, as chancellor.”

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Reuters: “Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party continues to command the highest support of any political grouping ahead of parliamentary elections in October, according to a poll released on Monday. A poll by IBRiS conducted on Sept. 6-7 showed the PiS-led coalition with 42.4% support. Its main rival, Civic Coalition, which includes Civic Platform (PO), was at 22.7%, the leftist bloc Lewica had 13.1% and PSL/Kukiz’15 had 5.6% support.”

AP: “Poland’s main opposition grouping launched its campaign for October elections Friday with a social program that appears to chime with the generous spending policies that have kept the ruling right-wing party atop opinion polls. The Civic Coalition’s program was presented by deputy parliament speaker, Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska, who was recently tapped as the pro-European coalition’s candidate for prime minister, should it win the Oct. 13 vote.”

Claudia Ciobanu, Balkan Insight: “‘House with a garden’: How PiS paints the Polish dream – As a general election looms, Poland’s governing party seeks a winning formula with a vision of a welfare state made exclusively for ‘good Poles’.”

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Péter Cseresnyés, Hungary Today: “Here Are the Candidates Running for Budapest Mayor: The deadline for collecting voter recommendations to run for the 2019 municipal election expired on Monday…In the capital, a total of five people have been able to collect enough signatures, so they are the only ones eligible to run on October 13th.”

Hungary Today: “Opposition mayoral candidate Gergely Karácsony on Wednesday rejected as “blackmail” a government ‘threat’ to voters to scrap the pact between the government and Budapest — which contains generous central government funding — if incumbent mayor István Tarlós were to lose the October 13 local election.”

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

Novinite: “GERB Chair Boyko Borisсov on September 9 signed framework political agreements for the local elections with United Farmers and Bulgarian Democratic Forum.”

The Sofia Globe: “Bulgaria’s 2019 local elections: ‘No porno journalism’ campaign after site posts obscene photos”

Slav Okov, Bloomberg: “Bulgaria charged the head of a pro-Russian civil-society group with espionage, alleging he supplied information to help shift the Balkan nation’s geopolitical trajectory. The move could complicate ties between the two countries, which have remained cordial — particularly in the energy sector — despite Bulgaria’s membership of the European Union and NATO. In a possible sign of tougher rhetoric before local elections in October, Bulgaria criticized the Kremlin last week over remarks about World War II.”

Daniel McLaughlin, The Irish Times: “Prosecutors have charged Nikolay Malinov, chairman of the National Russophile Movement in Bulgaria, with “putting himself in the service of foreign organisations to work for them as a spy” and of laundering money sent by those Russian groups. Mr Malinov allegedly worked on a plan to set up a television channel, think tank, political party and websites in Bulgaria that would promote closer ties with Moscow rather than with Sofia’s EU and Nato partners.”

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections – November 2019 (expected)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

Fiachra Ó Cionnaith, Irish Examiner: “Four by-elections to fill Dáil seats left empty as a result of the European elections could take place on the same day in a “Super Friday” style election day as soon as the first half of November. Fianna Fáil members and potential by-election candidates said they are preparing for the likely schedule as party leader Micheál Martin said ‘we anticipate the by-elections will happen before the general election.’”

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Romania Insider: “The leaders of Romanian opposition parties Save Romania Union (USR) and PLUS, Dan Barna and Dacian Ciolos, sent a proposal to president Klaus Iohannis and the other opposition parties to make a pact for organizing early parliamentary elections next year, at the same time with the elections for the local administration.”

Stratfor: “Elections in Poland and Romania, and What Will Follow for the EU”

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). The current mayor of Paris is Anne Hidalgo from the Socialist Party, who is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

Leia Hoarau, RTL (in French): “SLIDESHOW – Municipal election in Paris: who are the candidates? To date, 8 contenders have formally declared their candidacy for mayor of Paris. Two others, including the incumbent mayor, should announce themselves very soon.”

Denis Cosnard, Le Monde (in French): “Benjamin Griveaux, Cédric Villani and Pierre-Yves Bournazel – will they soon meet on TV, to confront their visions and clarify the competition between the three Macronist candidates at the City of Paris? This is in any case the proposal unveiled Monday 9 September by Pierre-Yves Bournazel, the least known of the trio.”

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 62.2 million

Italy’s 2018 general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Two very different populist parties – the nationalist, anti-immigrant Lega (League – formerly the Northern League), and the Five Star Movement, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo – formed a contentious coalition, and there have been constant rumors that the coalition would collapse and spark snap elections.

Italy’s politics has been volatile for a long time. Daniel R. DePetris at the Spectator notes: “Italian politics is like a game of musical chairs. One government resigns or collapses, another takes its place, until that government is either rendered irrelevant a year later or voted out during the next election. Italy has had 68 governments in the last 74 years and 10 prime ministers in the last 20.”

Elisabetta Povoledo, New York Times: “Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of Italy won a crucial vote of confidence in the Senate for his new coalition government on Tuesday, paving the way for pledged overhauls to the country’s economy and sectors like research and education.”

Lucio Baccaro and Julia Lynch, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Expect the new Italian government to be as short-lived as the last one. Here’s why: Right-wing nationalist Matteo Salvini may be out of power — but he’s likely to be back.”

Carlo Bastasin, Brookings Institution’s Order from Chaos: “Italy’s political turmoil shows that parliaments can confront populists.”

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Eliza Mackintosh, CNN: “Call for snap UK general election fails (again) for Boris Johnson”

Robert Peston, The Spectator: “Labour will not endorse Remain in a general election”

Updated September 12, 2019

The Economist: “How pacts and tactical voting could sway the coming British election: Nigel Farage makes the Tories an offer they can refuse”

Past Elections
Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.4 million

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental and transportation issues played a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters chose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

David Nikel, Forbes: “On a night when several smaller parties are set for big gains in Norway’s nationwide local and county elections, some of the country’s biggest parties took a bruising. The first projected results show that all four governing parties lost votes, but it’s the main opposition Labour Party that are bracing themselves for a devastating result.”

Terje Solsvik, Reuters: “The election boosted a broad range of parties, including Socialists, Communists, the Greens and the rural Centre Party, as well as the pro-motorist FNB, which dedicates itself to opposing congestion charges and other road tolls. Although regional votes have no impact on the composition of parliament, and a general election is two years away, the growing rural-urban divide and a backlash against government reforms make it more difficult to govern, analysts say.”

Marcos da Rocha Carvalho, The National Interest: “As America’s Youth Becomes Enamored with Socialism, Norway’s Youngest Party Puts its Faith in Capitalism: The upcoming local elections will likely see the first ever electoral gains by the country’s young Capitalist Party, Liberalistene.”

Mikael Holter, Bloomberg: “Norwegian voters have fired a warning shot at the country’s oil industry. Parties that want to rein in the country’s golden goose made significant gains in Monday’s local elections.”

Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Saxony – 4.1 million; Brandenburg – 2.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.

AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states.

Loveday Morris and Luisa Beck, Washington Post: “The decision of a small village council in southwestern Germany to elect a candidate from a neo-Nazi party as its leader has sparked national outrage, with efforts to reverse the decision underway on Tuesday [September 10].”

Kate Brady, DW: “Germany’s far-right AfD stronghold: Life is good, but ‘people are scared’: Almost 50% of voters from Neisseaue who turned out in Saxony’s elections cast their ballot for the far-right AfD. “Life is good,” say locals, but migration remains an issue — despite there being no refugees.”

Constanze Stelzenmüller, Financial Times: “At this point, the AfD stands fully revealed as a radically authoritarian party bent on nothing less than regime change. A vote for it is a protest vote only in the sense that the AfD is a party of protest against liberal democracy and an open society.”

Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.1 million

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.

European Western Balkans: “Following the publishing of OSCE’s report on local elections on held on 30 June, ruling and opposition parties have come out with different interpretations. While the government sees the document as a legitimization of the elections, opposition Democratic Party points out that, for the first time, the process is not specified as democratic.”

OSCE Report on Albania’s local elections: “The 30 June local elections were held with little regard for the interests of the electorate. The opposition decided not to participate, and the government determined to hold the elections without it. In the climate of a political standoff and polarisation, voters did not have a meaningful choice between political options. In 31 of the 61 municipalities mayoral candidates ran unopposed. There were credible allegations of citizens being pressured by both sides.”

Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Daniel Dombey, Financial Times: “Spain is on course for a general election — its fourth in four years — after talks between the country’s caretaker Socialist government and the radical leftwing Podemos party broke down on Tuesday. The country will go to the polls on November 10 unless Pedro Sánchez, the acting prime minister, can win a parliamentary vote on forming a new government by September 23.”

AFP: “Socialists and Podemos blame each other for stalemate in Spain”

Raphael Minder, New York Times: “600,000 Protesters in Barcelona Call for Independence From Spain”

Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.8 million

Claudia Patricolo, Emerging Europe: “European Commissioner for Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn has urged Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to form a new government, a day after the expiration of an unofficial deadline agreed by the leaders of all the country’s main parties.”

Akri Cipa, International Policy Digest: “The other major challenge that the Special Envoy will have to address is the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Dayton agreement mediated by the U.S. was effective in putting an end to the war in Bosnia in 1995 but was much less effective in laying the groundwork for good governance in the country. This is evident more than ever today as Bosnia, more than ten months after its general elections, is still without a government.”

The Year Ahead: Europe
Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Kosovo snap parliamentary (October 6); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Croatia presidential (December); France municipal (March 15-11); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April); Poland presidential (May); Iceland presidential (June)

 


A 2010 demonstration for Catalan autonomy. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Xenaia (CC BY-SA 2.0)

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

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