Upcoming Elections
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Socialists Scent Victory in Fateful Moldova Election: The pro-Russian party expects to consolidate its power in local elections in October – having already taken the Presidency and become part of the coalition government.”
RFE/RL: “EU: Moldova Moving ‘Resolutely’ Forward With Key Reforms: Moldovan Prime Minister Maia Sandu of the pro-Western Now Platform took office in June after months of political deadlock that followed inconclusive parliamentary elections in February.”
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Belsat: “Lukashenka’s favourite may become MP: Maryia Vasilevich, a participant in the 2018 Miss World beauty pageant and member of President Lukashenka’s escort team, is starting out in her political career: the girl is set to run for a seat in the House of Representatives, a lower chamber of the Belarusian parliament.”
The OSCE released its needs assessment mission report on September 6: “ODIHR NAM interlocutors generally described the current political climate as subdued. The early parliamentary elections will take place amidst long-term discussions of Constitutional and other political reforms and ahead of next year’s presidential election in which incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko will seek a sixth term.4 Several international organizations have raised concerns related to the exercise of civil and political rights in Belarus.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Margarita Antidze, Reuters: “The Georgian parliament on Sunday approved a new government led by Russian-educated former interior minister Giorgi Gakharia in a move slammed by the opposition which has called for him to resign over a crackdown on anti-Russian protesters.”
Artur Mosoyan, Tsarizm: “The opposition blames Gakharia for the political events which started on June 20 in Tbilisi. On that day Russian deputy Segey Gavrilov gave a speech in the Parliament which created rage within the society. Clashes immediately started between police and protesters as a result of which many citizens were injured.”
Joshua Kucera, Eurasianet: “Russia accused of killing Georgian, but Tbilisi stays silent: The uncharacteristic restraint appears to be related to the unhappy memories the victim brought up both to the current government and the opposition.”
OC Media: “Georgia debates NATO membership excluding defence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Comments by a former NATO Secretary-General regarding a possible path for Georgia into NATO have spurred a heated debate in the country. Anders Fogh Rasmussen suggested that Georgia ask for NATO membership with Article 5 applying only to territories controlled by the central government.”
Civil.Ge: “Incumbent Abkhaz Leader Wins ‘Presidential Runoff’….Abkhaz ‘elections’ are denounced as illegitimate by Tbilisi and the international community….A number of countries condemned the elections in Abkhazia two weeks ago, following the first round.”
RFE/RL: “Abkhazia’s incumbent separatist leader Raul Khajimba has rejected opposition demands for a new presidential election after disputing the results of a runoff in the breakaway Georgian region that gave him a slim victory.”
Past Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Nathan Hodge, CNN: “Russia’s ruling party takes a hit in Moscow election”
Meduza: “From cultural capital to gangland: An election monitor explains how chaos in St. Petersburg has led to mass fraud.”
Doug Stanglin, USA Today: “In simultaneous morning raids in 43 cities on Thursday, Russian security services descended on the homes and offices of supporters of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny whose ‘Smart Voting’ movement is credited with drastically reducing the number of pro-government members of the Moscow city council.”
Leonid Ragozin, Politico: “Putin’s star is fading….Russia’s slide toward authoritarianism under Putin has obscured tectonic cultural shifts that are pushing the country in the opposite direction. And now the cracks are coming to the surface.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Olena Prokopenko, Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert: “What Zelenskyy’s perfect picture is missing”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Ani Mejlumyan, Eurasianet: “Long-awaited trial of Armenian ex-president begins in Yerevan: Robert Kocharyan was challenged by victims’ families, but said the trial would go down in textbooks as the worst in Armenian history.”
Eurasia This Week – September 12, 2019
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Last Updated: October 7, 2019 by 21votes
September 12, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Upcoming Elections
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight: “Socialists Scent Victory in Fateful Moldova Election: The pro-Russian party expects to consolidate its power in local elections in October – having already taken the Presidency and become part of the coalition government.”
RFE/RL: “EU: Moldova Moving ‘Resolutely’ Forward With Key Reforms: Moldovan Prime Minister Maia Sandu of the pro-Western Now Platform took office in June after months of political deadlock that followed inconclusive parliamentary elections in February.”
Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Belsat: “Lukashenka’s favourite may become MP: Maryia Vasilevich, a participant in the 2018 Miss World beauty pageant and member of President Lukashenka’s escort team, is starting out in her political career: the girl is set to run for a seat in the House of Representatives, a lower chamber of the Belarusian parliament.”
The OSCE released its needs assessment mission report on September 6: “ODIHR NAM interlocutors generally described the current political climate as subdued. The early parliamentary elections will take place amidst long-term discussions of Constitutional and other political reforms and ahead of next year’s presidential election in which incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko will seek a sixth term.4 Several international organizations have raised concerns related to the exercise of civil and political rights in Belarus.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.
In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Margarita Antidze, Reuters: “The Georgian parliament on Sunday approved a new government led by Russian-educated former interior minister Giorgi Gakharia in a move slammed by the opposition which has called for him to resign over a crackdown on anti-Russian protesters.”
Artur Mosoyan, Tsarizm: “The opposition blames Gakharia for the political events which started on June 20 in Tbilisi. On that day Russian deputy Segey Gavrilov gave a speech in the Parliament which created rage within the society. Clashes immediately started between police and protesters as a result of which many citizens were injured.”
Joshua Kucera, Eurasianet: “Russia accused of killing Georgian, but Tbilisi stays silent: The uncharacteristic restraint appears to be related to the unhappy memories the victim brought up both to the current government and the opposition.”
OC Media: “Georgia debates NATO membership excluding defence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Comments by a former NATO Secretary-General regarding a possible path for Georgia into NATO have spurred a heated debate in the country. Anders Fogh Rasmussen suggested that Georgia ask for NATO membership with Article 5 applying only to territories controlled by the central government.”
Civil.Ge: “Incumbent Abkhaz Leader Wins ‘Presidential Runoff’….Abkhaz ‘elections’ are denounced as illegitimate by Tbilisi and the international community….A number of countries condemned the elections in Abkhazia two weeks ago, following the first round.”
RFE/RL: “Abkhazia’s incumbent separatist leader Raul Khajimba has rejected opposition demands for a new presidential election after disputing the results of a runoff in the breakaway Georgian region that gave him a slim victory.”
Past Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.
Nathan Hodge, CNN: “Russia’s ruling party takes a hit in Moscow election”
Meduza: “From cultural capital to gangland: An election monitor explains how chaos in St. Petersburg has led to mass fraud.”
Doug Stanglin, USA Today: “In simultaneous morning raids in 43 cities on Thursday, Russian security services descended on the homes and offices of supporters of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny whose ‘Smart Voting’ movement is credited with drastically reducing the number of pro-government members of the Moscow city council.”
Leonid Ragozin, Politico: “Putin’s star is fading….Russia’s slide toward authoritarianism under Putin has obscured tectonic cultural shifts that are pushing the country in the opposite direction. And now the cracks are coming to the surface.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Olena Prokopenko, Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert: “What Zelenskyy’s perfect picture is missing”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Ani Mejlumyan, Eurasianet: “Long-awaited trial of Armenian ex-president begins in Yerevan: Robert Kocharyan was challenged by victims’ families, but said the trial would go down in textbooks as the worst in Armenian history.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
Photo credit: Wikimedia/Evgeny Feldman – Novaya Gazeta (CC BY-SA 3.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine