Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, whichpresents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Tarek El-Tablawy, Bloomberg: “Tunisian authorities said 26 people, including the prime minister, two women and a moderate Islamist, have preliminary approval to run in next month’s presidential election.”
Claire Parker, Washington Post: “Lawyer Mounir Baatour officially announced his candidacy for the Tunisian presidency Thursday, becoming the first known openly gay presidential candidate in the Arab world and heralding a major step forward for LGBT rights in a country that still criminalizes gay sex….He received nearly 20,000 signatures in support of his candidacy — double the required number — according to a statement posted to his Facebook page.”
Reuters: “Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, leader of the secular Tahya Tounes party, on Friday [August 9] submitted his candidacy for the presidential election next month, making him a likely frontrunner in a crowded field.”
Daniel Brumberg, Lobe Log: “The passing of President Beji Caid Essebsi leaves a huge political void in Tunisia’s fraught politics. His death comes not only against the backdrop of an escalating economic crisis but also in the wake of an intensifying political struggle at the very heart of Tunisia’s emerging democratic institutions.”
Sarah Yerkes, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Five Reasons Why Tunisia’s Early Presidential Elections Will Shake Things Up”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Jerusalem Post: “Likud polling at 30 seats and Blue and White at 29: New election poll: Labor-Gesher gaining traction, Liberman maintains hold”
Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor: “With opinion polls showing that the Sept. 17 re-do election will deliver a similar result as the one in April — Likud and its right-wing allies look set to have a plurality of seats — the question weighing on Israelis is not whether Netanyahu will win, but whether he will succeed in setting up a government this time.”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Shannon Van Sant, NPR: “A car bomb exploded outside a police station in Kabul on Wednesday morning [August 7], killing at least 14 people and wounding more than 140. Taliban insurgents claimed responsibility for the attack.”
AP: “Unrelenting Taliban attacks like the deadly car bomb that rocked Kabul on Wednesday are undermining the credibility of negotiations to end the nearly 18-year-old war in Afghanistan, the country’s ambassador to the U.S. said.”
Cara Anna and Tameem Akhgar, AP: “Afghanistan election in doubt as US, Taliban near deal: Few candidates — 18 are running for the country’s top job — have openly campaigned after the Taliban last week attacked the office of President Ashraf Ghani’s running mate on opening day of the campaign, killing at least 20 people. Amrullah Saleh, known for his fierce anti-Taliban stance, was unharmed.”
AP: “The latest round of talks between the Taliban and the United States ended early Monday [August 12] without any sign a peace deal had been reached for Afghanistan, as both sides said they would consult with their leaderships on the next steps.”
Australian Associated Press: “Afghan President Ashraf Ghani says peace will come to his country but he appeared to question an expected deal between the United States and the Taliban, saying Afghanistan would decide its future, not outsiders.”
VOA: “A leading Afghan presidential candidate suspended his campaign Thursday [August 8], casting increasing doubt that the elections will be held as scheduled on Sept. 28. Mohammad Hanif Atmar, a former national security adviser to President Ashraf Ghani, had emerged as one of his leading contenders in the coming presidential polls. Atmar’s campaign has cited security issues as well as the ongoing peace process as reasons for the suspension.”
Editorial Board, St. Louis Post Dispatch: “President Donald Trump quipped last month that he could end the Afghan war in a matter of days, but he didn’t want to wipe out 10 million people. Far more – 14 million – women’s lives are at risk of being effectively erased if Trump proceeds with peace talks that would put the Taliban back in power.”
Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Bloomberg Opinion: “What to Look for in Any Deal Between the U.S. and the Taliban: Six factors will determine whether a U.S. withdrawal is catastrophic or promising.”
Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
VIDEO Sam Ball, France24: “Algeria, 25 weeks of protests and counting”
Francisco Serrano, World Politics Review: “After Bouteflika’s Ouster, Algeria’s Popular Uprising Faces a Much Bigger Test”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Iran’s reformist political faction seems to have split as one of the groups constituting its backbone has officially pulled out of the lose-knit political force. After remarks by the leader of the centrist Executives of Construction Party, Iranian media reported Tuesday August 13 that the group has all but officially split from the reformist camp….The split will have unpredictable consequences in the upcoming parliamentary elections in February.”
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “In a letter to President Hassan Rouhani, 8,700 Iranian citizens have called for lifting the house arrest of Iran’s Green Movement leaders, confined to their homes since 2011 without trial.”
Foreign Policy: “Iran’s Spies Are at War With Each Other: As international tensions rise, two different branches of the Iranian security state are increasingly butting heads.”
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Criticizing the model used by Iran’s reformists, [academic Hashem] Aghajari argues that reform is not possible through ballot boxes alone, but rather that shaping a powerful social movement is necessary. Activists have levelled such criticism at former president Mohammad Khatami, who has been trying to bring about reforms by encouraging participation in elections without forming and leading a social movement.”
Ilan Berman, The National Interest: “Why Iran Fears Its Women: Masih Alinejad is spearheading a broader movement that both unifies and amplifies the disparate strains of dissent now percolating within Iran.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Lawk Ghafuri, Rudaw: “ A senior Iraqi electoral official has said Iraqis will only be able to vote in upcoming provincial elections from their home cities – a rule that would prevent hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Iraqis from voting.”
Zhelwan Z. Wali, Rudaw: “Including the disputed province of Kirkuk in Iraq’s 2020 provincial elections will strip displaced Kurds of their right to vote and entrench the ‘Arabization’ polices which have forced Kurds out of military and administrative posts, Kurdish parties warned this week. Iraq’s parliament recently agreed to hold provincial council elections across Iraq on April 1, 2020, including the disputed province of Kirkuk, which has long enjoyed a special status and has not held a provincial election since 2005.”
Linda Robinson, Foreign Affairs: “Winning the Peace in Iraq: Don’t Give Up on Baghdad’s Fragile Democracy….The success of Operation Inherent Resolve, with its focus on assisting Iraqis as they took the lead in the fight for their own land, points the way toward a new paradigm for military operations: a middle ground between costly wars and nonintervention, one that relies more on cooperation, diplomacy, and security assistance than on unilateral military action.”
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Amnesty International: “The bloody events of 14 August 2013, when Egyptian security forces killed at least 900 people during the violent dispersal of mass anti-government sit-ins in Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares, has cast a shadow over Egyptian society that lingers to this day, said Amnesty International today.”
Editorial Board, Washington Post: “Egypt seized a U.S. art teacher over her Facebook posts. Trump must get her free.”
Turkey General – Due 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism. Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections.
Zülfikar Doğan, Ahval: “No one wants early elections in Turkey, but everyone is talking about them: Turkey’s next parliamentary polls are not due until 2023, and politicians of all stripes are against the idea of an early vote, but it must mean something that they are all talking about it.”
Hürriyet Daily News: “Mulling snap elections means hindering fight against terror: MHP leader”
Diego Cupolo, Al-Monitor: “Two more elected HDP officials suspended in Turkey”
Kaya Genc, Foreign Affairs: “Erdogan’s Way: The Rise and Rule of Turkey’s Islamist Shapeshifter”
Middle East This Week – August 13, 2019
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Last Updated: August 24, 2019 by 21votes
August 13, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, whichpresents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Turkey General - Due 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism. Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections.
Upcoming Elections
Tunisia Presidential – September 15, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, whichpresents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party but holds some retrograde views, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the fractious secularist parties and Ennadha (Machrouu Tounes, another secularist party, broke from Nidaa Tounes in 2016 and currently has 25 seats in parliament).
President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, died at age 92 on July 25, 2019. The presidential election – originally scheduled for November – was moved to September 15.
Tarek El-Tablawy, Bloomberg: “Tunisian authorities said 26 people, including the prime minister, two women and a moderate Islamist, have preliminary approval to run in next month’s presidential election.”
Claire Parker, Washington Post: “Lawyer Mounir Baatour officially announced his candidacy for the Tunisian presidency Thursday, becoming the first known openly gay presidential candidate in the Arab world and heralding a major step forward for LGBT rights in a country that still criminalizes gay sex….He received nearly 20,000 signatures in support of his candidacy — double the required number — according to a statement posted to his Facebook page.”
Reuters: “Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, leader of the secular Tahya Tounes party, on Friday [August 9] submitted his candidacy for the presidential election next month, making him a likely frontrunner in a crowded field.”
Daniel Brumberg, Lobe Log: “The passing of President Beji Caid Essebsi leaves a huge political void in Tunisia’s fraught politics. His death comes not only against the backdrop of an escalating economic crisis but also in the wake of an intensifying political struggle at the very heart of Tunisia’s emerging democratic institutions.”
Sarah Yerkes, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Five Reasons Why Tunisia’s Early Presidential Elections Will Shake Things Up”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Israel – nicknamed the “startup nation” – is a vibrant democracy. In September, Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud was unable to form a coalition following April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the military. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it, highlighting growing tensions between secular and religious Israelis. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The elections are happening in the middle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s quixotic attempt to seal the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians.
Jerusalem Post: “Likud polling at 30 seats and Blue and White at 29: New election poll: Labor-Gesher gaining traction, Liberman maintains hold”
Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor: “With opinion polls showing that the Sept. 17 re-do election will deliver a similar result as the one in April — Likud and its right-wing allies look set to have a plurality of seats — the question weighing on Israelis is not whether Netanyahu will win, but whether he will succeed in setting up a government this time.”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019 (further delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Islamic Republic
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, marred by violence and administrative problems. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations between the United States and the Taliban.
Shannon Van Sant, NPR: “A car bomb exploded outside a police station in Kabul on Wednesday morning [August 7], killing at least 14 people and wounding more than 140. Taliban insurgents claimed responsibility for the attack.”
AP: “Unrelenting Taliban attacks like the deadly car bomb that rocked Kabul on Wednesday are undermining the credibility of negotiations to end the nearly 18-year-old war in Afghanistan, the country’s ambassador to the U.S. said.”
Cara Anna and Tameem Akhgar, AP: “Afghanistan election in doubt as US, Taliban near deal: Few candidates — 18 are running for the country’s top job — have openly campaigned after the Taliban last week attacked the office of President Ashraf Ghani’s running mate on opening day of the campaign, killing at least 20 people. Amrullah Saleh, known for his fierce anti-Taliban stance, was unharmed.”
AP: “The latest round of talks between the Taliban and the United States ended early Monday [August 12] without any sign a peace deal had been reached for Afghanistan, as both sides said they would consult with their leaderships on the next steps.”
Australian Associated Press: “Afghan President Ashraf Ghani says peace will come to his country but he appeared to question an expected deal between the United States and the Taliban, saying Afghanistan would decide its future, not outsiders.”
VOA: “A leading Afghan presidential candidate suspended his campaign Thursday [August 8], casting increasing doubt that the elections will be held as scheduled on Sept. 28. Mohammad Hanif Atmar, a former national security adviser to President Ashraf Ghani, had emerged as one of his leading contenders in the coming presidential polls. Atmar’s campaign has cited security issues as well as the ongoing peace process as reasons for the suspension.”
Editorial Board, St. Louis Post Dispatch: “President Donald Trump quipped last month that he could end the Afghan war in a matter of days, but he didn’t want to wipe out 10 million people. Far more – 14 million – women’s lives are at risk of being effectively erased if Trump proceeds with peace talks that would put the Taliban back in power.”
Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Bloomberg Opinion: “What to Look for in Any Deal Between the U.S. and the Taliban: Six factors will determine whether a U.S. withdrawal is catastrophic or promising.”
Algeria Presidential – TBD (was set for July 4, 2019 but has been postponed indefinitely)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protests continue. Protesters are demanding assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.
VIDEO Sam Ball, France24: “Algeria, 25 weeks of protests and counting”
Francisco Serrano, World Politics Review: “After Bouteflika’s Ouster, Algeria’s Popular Uprising Faces a Much Bigger Test”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020 and Presidential – May or June 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services. The elections are happening in the context of escalating tensions with the United States.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Iran’s reformist political faction seems to have split as one of the groups constituting its backbone has officially pulled out of the lose-knit political force. After remarks by the leader of the centrist Executives of Construction Party, Iranian media reported Tuesday August 13 that the group has all but officially split from the reformist camp….The split will have unpredictable consequences in the upcoming parliamentary elections in February.”
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “In a letter to President Hassan Rouhani, 8,700 Iranian citizens have called for lifting the house arrest of Iran’s Green Movement leaders, confined to their homes since 2011 without trial.”
Foreign Policy: “Iran’s Spies Are at War With Each Other: As international tensions rise, two different branches of the Iranian security state are increasingly butting heads.”
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Criticizing the model used by Iran’s reformists, [academic Hashem] Aghajari argues that reform is not possible through ballot boxes alone, but rather that shaping a powerful social movement is necessary. Activists have levelled such criticism at former president Mohammad Khatami, who has been trying to bring about reforms by encouraging participation in elections without forming and leading a social movement.”
Ilan Berman, The National Interest: “Why Iran Fears Its Women: Masih Alinejad is spearheading a broader movement that both unifies and amplifies the disparate strains of dissent now percolating within Iran.”
Iraq Provincial – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Date tentative – election commission has set it as their preferred date. Originally scheduled for December 2018, but delayed multiple times following controversialnational elections in May 2018 (the first since the defeat of ISIS).
Lawk Ghafuri, Rudaw: “ A senior Iraqi electoral official has said Iraqis will only be able to vote in upcoming provincial elections from their home cities – a rule that would prevent hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Iraqis from voting.”
Zhelwan Z. Wali, Rudaw: “Including the disputed province of Kirkuk in Iraq’s 2020 provincial elections will strip displaced Kurds of their right to vote and entrench the ‘Arabization’ polices which have forced Kurds out of military and administrative posts, Kurdish parties warned this week. Iraq’s parliament recently agreed to hold provincial council elections across Iraq on April 1, 2020, including the disputed province of Kirkuk, which has long enjoyed a special status and has not held a provincial election since 2005.”
Linda Robinson, Foreign Affairs: “Winning the Peace in Iraq: Don’t Give Up on Baghdad’s Fragile Democracy….The success of Operation Inherent Resolve, with its focus on assisting Iraqis as they took the lead in the fight for their own land, points the way toward a new paradigm for military operations: a middle ground between costly wars and nonintervention, one that relies more on cooperation, diplomacy, and security assistance than on unilateral military action.”
Egypt Local – Due 2019 (delays possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Egypt’s first local elections in over 10 years are supposed to happen this year, but a date has not been set. The country has not had elected local government since 2011. Last year’s presidential election, which saw President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi re-elected for a second term, was neither free nor fair, and took place in an environment of harassment and intimidation of the opposition.
Amnesty International: “The bloody events of 14 August 2013, when Egyptian security forces killed at least 900 people during the violent dispersal of mass anti-government sit-ins in Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares, has cast a shadow over Egyptian society that lingers to this day, said Amnesty International today.”
Editorial Board, Washington Post: “Egypt seized a U.S. art teacher over her Facebook posts. Trump must get her free.”
Turkey General – Due 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican Party (CHP) won by a small margin. They re-ran the election on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. The move did not pay off – Imamoglu defeated AKP’s Binali Yildirim once again, by an even bigger margin. The election took place in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism. Although Turkey is not due for general elections until 2023, there have been rumors of possible snap elections.
Zülfikar Doğan, Ahval: “No one wants early elections in Turkey, but everyone is talking about them: Turkey’s next parliamentary polls are not due until 2023, and politicians of all stripes are against the idea of an early vote, but it must mean something that they are all talking about it.”
Hürriyet Daily News: “Mulling snap elections means hindering fight against terror: MHP leader”
Diego Cupolo, Al-Monitor: “Two more elected HDP officials suspended in Turkey”
Kaya Genc, Foreign Affairs: “Erdogan’s Way: The Rise and Rule of Turkey’s Islamist Shapeshifter”
The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (due 2019 – date not set – delays likely); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections this year – delays highly likely); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Tunisia presidential and parliamentary (September 15 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
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Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Tunisia, Turkey