Europe This Week – August 14, 2019

August 14, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.

However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.

Norway Local – September 9, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – Expected September or October 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kosovo will likely hold snap elections this fall following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Albania Proposed Local Re-Run – October 13, 2019 (proposed – not certain)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politicscharacterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Croatia Presidential – December 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.

Slovakia Parliamentary - March 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who wasinvestigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruptionand stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament. 

United Kingdom General - Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy

Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Sweden Parliamentary – September 2018

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

Sweden’s September 2018 parliamentary elections produced a hung parliament, in which the mainstream right and left coalitions each had about 40 percent of the vote respectively, with the far-right populist Sweden Democrats gaining 20 percent of the seats. The mainstream parties all want to keep the Sweden Democrats out of government (and out of the role of kingmaker), but it took 118 days for lawmakers to form a coalition government, after two parties from the center-right Alliance broke off to back a government led by the Social Democrats and the Greens.

Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.

However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.

Jill Petzinger, Yahoo Finance: “Germany’s far-right political party Alternative for Germany (AFD) is gaining steam in a number polls, outstripping the Christian Democrats (CDU) — the party formerly led by Angela Merkel — and Social Democrats (SPD).”

Frank Jordans, AP: “Topping polls in local vote, German politician downplays far-right past: Andreas Kalbitz, AfD candidate in state of Brandenburg, insists his biography is not extremist, but critics say the facts show otherwise”

Manon Jacob, Politico: “Far right success endangers German economy, industry chief says. Nationalism hurts efforts to attract skilled workers, Dieter Kempf warns.”

Guy Chazan, Financial Times: “Germany: AfD surge threatened by party disunity. The hard-right party is well placed to gain regional seats but faces a power struggle between moderates and extremists.”

Norway Local – September 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

In Norway’s 2015 local elections, the center-left Labour Party won the most votes – 33 percent – and the center-right Conservatives lost control of Oslo and Bergen. Norway has a lot of political parties with a wide variety of ideologies. Labour and the Conservatives (who have governed the country since 2013, but have been in coalition with the Progress Party since 2017) are the largest.

Environmental issues are playing a major role in the debate ahead of these elections, where voters will choose mayors and municipal and county councils throughout Norway. Not all ideas supported by the environmental movement are popular – controversial road tolls have sparked vigorous political debate and threatened to collapse Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s government because her coalition partner, the Progress Party – which some call a populist party with a libertarian bent and others call a libertarian party with a populist bent – opposes them.

Nina Berglund, NewsInEnglish.no: “Election campaigns among Norway’s political parties, meanwhile, got underway in earnest over the weekend, with lots of debates over issues expected at the large Arendalsuka gathering this week in Arendal. The biggest issues include property tax (administered by municipalities), road tolls (bompenger), state police reform that’s left some areas short of cops on the beat and, not least, programs aimed at reversing climate change.”

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – Expected September or October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Kosovo will likely hold snap elections this fall following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Gazeta Express: “After Kosovo political parties agreed to disband the Parliament on 22 August and announce early elections expected to be held late in September or early October, leaders of the two biggest opposition parties – LDK and Vetevendosje- met on Tuesday to discuss potential pre-election coalition.”

Aidan Hehir, Prishtina Insight: “But, the quest for stability – for so long the primary goal set for Kosovo – has paradoxically produced little more than stagnation, if not regression. What Kosovo needs now more than ever is not stability, it is change.”

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.

DW: “Austria: ex-vice chancellor’s home raided in corruption probe: Heinz-Christian Strache has had his home searched. Authorities are investigating whether company appointments have been made in return for promises on gambling licenses.”

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

AP: “Polish lawmakers have chosen a new parliamentary speaker as the ruling populist party seeks to move past a scandal over the frequent use of a government jet by the previous speaker and his family.”

James Shotter, Financial Times: “Politicians from both sides of Poland’s conservative-liberal divide have labelled the October poll as a clash of civilisations, and in recent months, the ruling Law and Justice party has sought to rally its conservative base by presenting itself as a bulwark against LGBT groups, which it portrays as a threat to Catholic family values.”

Pawel Rybacki, Harvard Political Review: “E.U. Elections in Poland: Society Still Divided in Half”

Wojciech Sadurski, Oxford University Press’s OUPBlog: “What went wrong with Poland’s democracy”

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Cnaan Liphshiz, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “In 2011, Hungary’s largest Jewish group called on the Justice Ministry to ban the far-right Jobbik party, describing it as ‘anti-Semitic’ and ‘fascist.’ Now some in the Jewish community, and even inside Mazsihisz, see Jobbik as a legitimate partner for effecting democratic change, despite its blunt racism.”

Paul Lendvai, Foreign Affairs: “The Transformer: Orban’s Evolution and Hungary’s Demise”

Albania Proposed Local Re-Run – October 13, 2019 (proposed – not certain)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Meta then set a date for new local elections on October 13, 2019, but the Socialist Party has said they would not participate. Albania’s political crisis continues.

Euronews: “Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama has defended his decision to hold disputed elections in June. Speaking exclusively to Euronews, he also slammed the opposition’s decision to boycott the vote.”

Exit: “An OSCE-ODIHR spokesperson has confirmed to Exit that they have not been invited to observe the October 13 local elections in Albania. Regarding the June 30 elections, the Preliminary Report of the OSCE-ODIHR had stated that the ‘local elections were held with little regard for the interests of the electorate.’”

Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politicscharacterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.

Sofia Globe: “Bulgarian Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB party has named Plovdiv regional governor Zdravko Dimitrov as its candidate for mayor of Plovdiv in the autumn 2019 municipal elections.”

Sofia Globe: “Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission (CEC) has imposed fines on nationalist VMRO party leader Krassimir Karachanov and MEP Angel Dzhambazki for breaches of the law during the campaign ahead of the country’s May 2019 European Parliament elections.”

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Romania Insider: ‘Romania’s prime minister Viorica Dăncilă, the president of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), has categorically confirmed that she would not withdraw her candidacy for the presidential elections, which was endorsed by the party’s National Executive Committee. She said her colleagues want a Social Democrat candidate in the autumn elections.”

RFE/RL: “‘We Know What You Did Last Summer’: Romanians Mark Anniversary Of Protest Crackdown: Romanians have rallied in Bucharest and other cities across the country to mark the first anniversary of a massive anti-corruption protest that was violently put down by the government.”

Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.

Total Croatia News: “Analysts: President’s Decision to Announce Her Candidacy in Far-Right Weekly Odd”

Slovakia Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament. 

The Slovak Spectator: “‘We need to replace Smer in the government,’ Andrej Kiska has been saying ever since he announced his intention of starting a new political party. Most opposition parties now stress that the upcoming parliamentary election will be a breaking point, attaching extraordinary importance to the first parliamentary election that will take place in Slovakia after the murder of a journalist and the wave of protests that followed.”

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Reuters: “ING, one of Europe’s largest banks, said on Tuesday its central assumption was Brexit would be delayed, with a 40 percent chance of a national election in the United Kingdom.”

Aleks Eror, Foreign Policy: “Boris Johnson Doesn’t Want a No-Deal Brexit. He Wants to Win an Election. The British prime minister’s tough talk is designed to provoke Remainers into blocking Brexit—and give him a villain to blame during an election campaign.”

Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Jean-Luc Mounier, France24: “Can a left-wing alliance stop Salvini from forming a far-right government in Italy?”

Nicholas Farrell, The Spectator: “The secret of Matteo Salvini’s success: Can anyone stop him from becoming Italy’s next leader?”

Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian: “First cracks appear in Matteo Salvini’s charge to be Italy’s PM: Former coalition partner M5S and opposition could unite to scupper far-right leader’s plans”

Past Elections
Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy

EU Observer: “There have been no talks so far between political parties on the federal Belgian level, Bart De Wever, leader of the Flemish nationalist NVA, the biggest party of Belgium, revealed in a TV interview on Monday evening [August 12]….”

Oscar Schneider, Brussels Times: “Co-governing with the far-right Vlaams Belang (VB) is not an option, and not even a future possibility, Nieuw Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA) leader Bart de Wever said on Monday at a press conference.

Gabriela Galindo, Brussels Times: “Far-right party excluded as government talks launched in Flanders”

Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Natalia Junquera and Claudi Pérez, El País: “One hundred days since election, Spain still no closer to forming government: Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is working on a new strategy to win the support of the anti-austerity party Unidas Podemos, which refused to back his investiture bid in July.”

Juan José Mateo, El País: “Madrid region gets its first government propped up by the far right: Conservative candidate Isabel Díaz Ayuso was confirmed as the new leader following a tense debate at the regional assembly.”

Sweden Parliamentary – September 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

Sweden’s September 2018 parliamentary elections produced a hung parliament, in which the mainstream right and left coalitions each had about 40 percent of the vote respectively, with the far-right populist Sweden Democrats gaining 20 percent of the seats. The mainstream parties all want to keep the Sweden Democrats out of government (and out of the role of kingmaker), but it took 118 days for lawmakers to form a coalition government, after two parties from the center-right Alliance broke off to back a government led by the Social Democrats and the Greens.

Jo Becker, New York Times: “The Global Machine Behind the Rise of Far-Right Nationalism Sweden was long seen as a progressive utopia. Then came waves of immigrants — and the forces of populism at home and abroad.”

Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Srecko Latal, Balkan Insight: “The recent agreement between the main parties on forming new governments has kick-started an old discussion on whether it is time to abolish the Office of the High Representative.”

Danijel Kovacevic, Balkan Insight: “Dodik Threatens Drastic Action Over Bosnian Govt Delays: Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has said the Serb-led entity will put out of a range of important agreements unless a state-level government is formed soon, in line with a recently signed agreement.”

Valerie Hopkins and Ben Hall, Financial Times: “Sarajevo leader sweeps nationalism aside in Bosnia: Edin Forto breaks mould with multi-ethnic platform focusing on public services”

The Year Ahead: Europe
Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony states (September 1); Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Poland parliamentary (November); Romania presidential (November 3); Croatia presidential (December); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April 2020); Poland presidential (May 2020); Iceland presidential (June 2020)

 


An LGBTQ equality march in Warsaw, June 2018. Poland’s governing Law and Justice Party has been using anti-LGBTQ rhetoric to rally their religious base ahead of the upcoming elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Klarqa (CC BY-SA 4.0)

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